2024

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boognish_bear
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8:42a, 8/17/23
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Oldbear83
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In reply to boognish_bear • 8:55a, 8/17/23
boognish_bear said:
So, why doesn't Trump provide links to those polls that show him winning?

That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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sombear
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10:56a, 8/17/23
Ouch

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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 9:14p, 8/17/23
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


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Mothra
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In reply to sombear • 8:24a, 8/18/23
sombear said:
Ouch

And yet posters like whiterock keep propping up this fool's gold.
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Mothra
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In reply to whiterock • 8:25a, 8/18/23
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


So, the strategy is, yes, our candidate it terrible but Biden is more terrible.

SMH.
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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 8:46a, 8/18/23
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


If anything I've posted has come across as defending or propping up Biden, then I've failed . . . .

But Trump's approvals have been right around 35%, and his "never vote for" numbers around 64%. Those are astonishing. Biden's approvals have been over 40 - last 4 polls, including Fox this morning, have him 42-45.

EPIC-MRA is Michigan's gold standard poll. It's had a slight Trump lean, but solid, reputable poll.
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whiterock
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In reply to Mothra • 8:59a, 8/18/23
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


So, the strategy is, yes, our candidate it terrible but Biden is more terrible.

SMH.
SMH. It's not my strategy. It's the view of a majority of Republicans, as reflected by polling. How could we not hear the very loud caucus of people who insist that Trump simply cannot win? To be fair, they are not talking nonsense. Problem for that caucus is, though, the full body of publicly polling simply does not make a compelling cast to support their conclusion. Nor does any reasonable reading of the landscape going forward on current issues and their likely trends. Sure, there are reasons to be concerned about a Trump candidacy. Unfortunately, no other candidate in the field is clearly stronger. Some may poll better in a few swing states, but that improvement is marginal, at the outside edge of the margin of error....at best. A clear, if narrow, majority of Republicans are rejecting the protestations of the wizards of smart and making the best judgment possible at this moment = the bird in the hand is better than any of the others in the bush. That may change. Or it may not. We will know soon enough. But at this point in time, no candidate in the GOP field has a significantly better pathway than the current front runner. We may not like that. We just have to deal with it. If/when that changes, we'll have to deal with that, too.

The best thing Trump opponents can do to help RDS or Scott or (etc......) is to quit talking about electability and start talking about issues.
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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 10:10a, 8/18/23
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


So, the strategy is, yes, our candidate it terrible but Biden is more terrible.

SMH.
SMH. It's not my strategy. It's the view of a majority of Republicans, as reflected by polling. How could we not hear the very loud caucus of people who insist that Trump simply cannot win? To be fair, they are not talking nonsense. Problem for that caucus is, though, the full body of publicly polling simply does not make a compelling cast to support their conclusion. Nor does any reasonable reading of the landscape going forward on current issues and their likely trends. Sure, there are reasons to be concerned about a Trump candidacy. Unfortunately, no other candidate in the field is clearly stronger. Some may poll better in a few swing states, but that improvement is marginal, at the outside edge of the margin of error....at best. A clear, if narrow, majority of Republicans are rejecting the protestations of the wizards of smart and making the best judgment possible at this moment = the bird in the hand is better than any of the others in the bush. That may change. Or it may not. We will know soon enough. But at this point in time, no candidate in the GOP field has a significantly better pathway than the current front runner. We may not like that. We just have to deal with it. If/when that changes, we'll have to deal with that, too.

The best thing Trump opponents can do to help RDS or Scott or (etc......) is to quit talking about electability and start talking about issues.
100% disagree. General election polls on non-Trump GOP candidates at this point mean absolutely nothing, and that historically always has been the case. Two primary reasons, one, they are far lesser known, and two, there have been no positive ads or other campaigning targeting a general audience. Meantime, they have been hit hard by Trump and the Dems. They actually should be doing far worse.

Favorables/unfavorables are a bit more relevant, but still mostly meaningless.
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Sam Lowry
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In reply to whiterock • 10:45a, 8/18/23
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


So, the strategy is, yes, our candidate it terrible but Biden is more terrible.

SMH.
SMH. It's not my strategy. It's the view of a majority of Republicans, as reflected by polling. How could we not hear the very loud caucus of people who insist that Trump simply cannot win? To be fair, they are not talking nonsense. Problem for that caucus is, though, the full body of publicly polling simply does not make a compelling cast to support their conclusion. Nor does any reasonable reading of the landscape going forward on current issues and their likely trends. Sure, there are reasons to be concerned about a Trump candidacy. Unfortunately, no other candidate in the field is clearly stronger. Some may poll better in a few swing states, but that improvement is marginal, at the outside edge of the margin of error....at best. A clear, if narrow, majority of Republicans are rejecting the protestations of the wizards of smart and making the best judgment possible at this moment = the bird in the hand is better than any of the others in the bush. That may change. Or it may not. We will know soon enough. But at this point in time, no candidate in the GOP field has a significantly better pathway than the current front runner. We may not like that. We just have to deal with it. If/when that changes, we'll have to deal with that, too.

The best thing Trump opponents can do to help RDS or Scott or (etc......) is to quit talking about electability and start talking about issues.
This argues pretty strongly against your thesis that the winner of the primary is the best candidate in the general. I think the point is that Trump support has a hard ceiling that other candidates don't. May or may not be true, but I suspect it is.
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Osodecentx
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11:28a, 8/18/23
Are Republicans serious about winning?
In 2022, Democrats labored to boost eccentric far-right candidates in GOP primaries, with the anticipation they'd later lose to Democrats. That panned out for them in the midterm
Mr. Biden versus a Republican opponent who is young, steady, and with a new plan? The race might be over.

From WSJ:
Is Joe Biden Electable?
Democrats bet it all on a weak horse in the 2024 presidential race, sure that his opponent is even weaker.
This weeklike last week, last month and much of last yearfeatured a full news cycle devoted to Donald Trump. There's a method to the critics' obsession, yet it could backfire. They ignore Joe Biden's weaknesses at their own peril.
The Georgia indictments of Mr. Trump and associates brought yet more focus on Mr. Trump's mounting hurdles to re-election. A total of 91 felony counts, many to be heard by a hostile jury. Trials set to commence during the GOP primary. A polarizing candidate who is a nonstarter with key general-election voting blocs. There's a near gleefulness in media stories describing the Republicans' pickle: They're barreling toward a nominee with too much freight to win the White House.
Yet doesn't that also describe the other party?
The left is banking it doesn'tat least not in comparison with Mr. Trump. But an our-guy-isn't-quite-as-detestable-as-your-guy strategy is the definition of risky. Look at Mr. Biden in isolation. Democrats are by every measure putting forward their weakest presidential nominee in decades, one who makes even the hapless Jimmy Carter of 1980 look competent.
No, Mr. Biden isn't facing four score and 11 criminal charges. But he is more than four score years old, and it's increasingly difficult to tiptoe around the president's disturbing decline. The long vacations, the early nights, the confusion, the mumbling, the bizarre statements. A June poll found that 71% of likely voters, including nearly half of Democrats, think Mr. Biden is too old to be president. The pace at which he's getting worse has also been striking, raising the question of a Nominee Biden's performance a year from now. God save the queen, man.
Then there's Hunter. The plea deal collapse is its own sordid story, though the smell will only grow. Republicans will continue to produce evidence of Joe's efforts to aid his son's global influence peddling, hammering home the former vice president's unsavory use of that position. The media will do its best to ignore any revelations, though that will prove tougher if and when Republicans turn their probe into an impeachment inquiry, with prime-time hearings.
Don't forget the economy, or crime, or foreign-policy messes. The White House's "Bidenomics" pitch boils down to one statistic: low unemployment. Biden policies also produced inflation, unmanageable energy prices, and the heightened threat of a recession. A Fox poll from late May found 83% of voters say the economy is only in fair or poor shape. That's 14 points higher than in April 2021, a year into the pandemic.
Democrats and their media cheerleaders are blinding themselves to these liabilitiesplaying a game of See No Biden, Hear No Biden. They are working instead to keep Mr. Trump in the legal and media spotlightthe better to get him nominated. This is a repeat of the 2022 strategy, in which they labored to boost eccentric far-right candidates in GOP primaries, with the anticipation they'd later lose to Democrats.
That panned out for them in the midterms, but in a 50/50 country, and against an extremely weak incumbent, even Mr. Trump has playable odds. That Mr. Trumpwith all his history, all his indictments, all the unrelenting media beratementis still leading Mr. Biden in some head-to-head matchups ought to have Democrats working on plan B, C and D through Z.
That's assuming Mr. Trump is the nomineeanother uncertain wager. On the surface, the GOP primary looks like a repeat of 2016, with a crowd of opponents splitting the field and crowning Mr. Trump victor. But there are already big differences. The number of candidates at next week's first debate will be half what it was eight years ago. GOP leaders and donors will press far more heavily on noncontenders to get out early. Mr. Trump, whose underlying numbers still show some real weakness, could find himself in hand-to-hand combat. In this political environment, the unlikely scenarios are entirely possible.
Mr. Biden versus a Republican opponent who is young, steady, and with a new plan? The race might be over. Democrats have a field of viable replacements but continue to bet all on their lamest horse. If next year finds the country electing a GOP president, the liberal establishment will have itself to blame.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-joe-biden-electable-democrats-election-2024-president-campaign-candidate-gop-indictment-trump-31e02e62?mod=opinion_featst_pos1
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Jack Bauer
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1:19p, 8/18/23
Of course he is..

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 1:31p, 8/18/23
Jack Bauer said:
Of course he is..

LOL!!! No way Trump skips the debate. His ego will not allow it.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
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Osodecentx
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In reply to RD2WINAGNBEAR86 • 1:35p, 8/18/23
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Jack Bauer said:
Of course he is..

LOL!!! No way Trump skips the debate. His ego will not allow it.
His ego will not allow him to share the stage and have to answer unfriendly questions
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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In reply to Osodecentx • 1:39p, 8/18/23
Osodecentx said:
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Jack Bauer said:
Of course he is..

LOL!!! No way Trump skips the debate. His ego will not allow it.
His ego will not allow him to share the stage and have to answer unfriendly questions
I think your President has the exact same argument and excuses. Trump and Biden on on the same page! Who woulda thunkit?
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
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Jack Bauer
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In reply to Osodecentx • 1:52p, 8/18/23
Osodecentx said:
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Jack Bauer said:
Of course he is..

LOL!!! No way Trump skips the debate. His ego will not allow it.
His ego will not allow him to share the stage and have to answer unfriendly questions
Trump has to share the stage with Ron DeSanctimonious and Little Mike Pence!!!
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Osodecentx
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 2:48p, 8/18/23
Jack Bauer said:
Osodecentx said:
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Jack Bauer said:
Of course he is..

LOL!!! No way Trump skips the debate. His ego will not allow it.
His ego will not allow him to share the stage and have to answer unfriendly questions
Trump has to share the stage with Ron DeSanctimonious and Little Mike Pence!!!
Apparently not
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Osodecentx
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In reply to RD2WINAGNBEAR86 • 2:51p, 8/18/23
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Osodecentx said:
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Jack Bauer said:
Of course he is..

LOL!!! No way Trump skips the debate. His ego will not allow it.
His ego will not allow him to share the stage and have to answer unfriendly questions
I think your President has the exact same argument and excuses. Trump and Biden on on the same page! Who woulda thunkit?
I voted for Trump twice.
I won't be voting for Trump or Biden.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to Osodecentx • 3:07p, 8/18/23
Osodecentx said:
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Osodecentx said:
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Jack Bauer said:
Of course he is..

LOL!!! No way Trump skips the debate. His ego will not allow it.
His ego will not allow him to share the stage and have to answer unfriendly questions
I think your President has the exact same argument and excuses. Trump and Biden on on the same page! Who woulda thunkit?
I voted for Trump twice.
I won't be voting for Trump or Biden.
Ramaswamy 2024!
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
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Osodecentx
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 3:45p, 8/18/23
4th and Inches said:
Osodecentx said:
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Osodecentx said:
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Jack Bauer said:
Of course he is..

LOL!!! No way Trump skips the debate. His ego will not allow it.
His ego will not allow him to share the stage and have to answer unfriendly questions
I think your President has the exact same argument and excuses. Trump and Biden on on the same page! Who woulda thunkit?
I voted for Trump twice.
I won't be voting for Trump or Biden.
Ramaswamy 2024!
Well, his name isn't Trump, so it is a possibility
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4th and Inches
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In reply to Osodecentx • 4:00p, 8/18/23
Osodecentx said:
4th and Inches said:
Osodecentx said:
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Osodecentx said:
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Jack Bauer said:
Of course he is..

LOL!!! No way Trump skips the debate. His ego will not allow it.
His ego will not allow him to share the stage and have to answer unfriendly questions
I think your President has the exact same argument and excuses. Trump and Biden on on the same page! Who woulda thunkit?
I voted for Trump twice.
I won't be voting for Trump or Biden.
Ramaswamy 2024!
Well, his name isn't Trump, so it is a possibility
Him, RFK Jr, and a few others are intriguing
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
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Osodecentx
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 4:02p, 8/18/23
4th and Inches said:
Osodecentx said:
4th and Inches said:
Osodecentx said:
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Osodecentx said:
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Jack Bauer said:
Of course he is..

LOL!!! No way Trump skips the debate. His ego will not allow it.
His ego will not allow him to share the stage and have to answer unfriendly questions
I think your President has the exact same argument and excuses. Trump and Biden on on the same page! Who woulda thunkit?
I voted for Trump twice.
I won't be voting for Trump or Biden.
Ramaswamy 2024!
Well, his name isn't Trump, so it is a possibility
Him, RFK Jr, and a few others are intriguing
RFK not so much for me. Kinda like a talking dog or an orca. They are entertaining and unusual, but I won't be voting for them
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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 8:56a, 8/20/23
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


So, the strategy is, yes, our candidate it terrible but Biden is more terrible.

SMH.
SMH. It's not my strategy. It's the view of a majority of Republicans, as reflected by polling. How could we not hear the very loud caucus of people who insist that Trump simply cannot win? To be fair, they are not talking nonsense. Problem for that caucus is, though, the full body of publicly polling simply does not make a compelling cast to support their conclusion. Nor does any reasonable reading of the landscape going forward on current issues and their likely trends. Sure, there are reasons to be concerned about a Trump candidacy. Unfortunately, no other candidate in the field is clearly stronger. Some may poll better in a few swing states, but that improvement is marginal, at the outside edge of the margin of error....at best. A clear, if narrow, majority of Republicans are rejecting the protestations of the wizards of smart and making the best judgment possible at this moment = the bird in the hand is better than any of the others in the bush. That may change. Or it may not. We will know soon enough. But at this point in time, no candidate in the GOP field has a significantly better pathway than the current front runner. We may not like that. We just have to deal with it. If/when that changes, we'll have to deal with that, too.

The best thing Trump opponents can do to help RDS or Scott or (etc......) is to quit talking about electability and start talking about issues.
100% disagree. General election polls on non-Trump GOP candidates at this point mean absolutely nothing, and that historically always has been the case. Two primary reasons, one, they are far lesser known, and two, there have been no positive ads or other campaigning targeting a general audience. Meantime, they have been hit hard by Trump and the Dems. They actually should be doing far worse.

Favorables/unfavorables are a bit more relevant, but still mostly meaningless.
I don't disagree with your comments at all, so not sure why you would disagree with mine. Polling does indeed show a majority of Republicans are rejecting the electability argument. Any campaign facing the situation the field is facing has to figure out an issue or three to undermine the popularity of the front runner. That they have been unable to do that, indicates that the front runner is the front runner for solid reasons.

Again....not advocating anyone drop out or anything of the sort or insisting dynamics will never. Just res ipsa loquitur. It is what it is.... At this particular moment in time, anyway....
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whiterock
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In reply to Sam Lowry • 9:05a, 8/20/23
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


So, the strategy is, yes, our candidate it terrible but Biden is more terrible.

SMH.
SMH. It's not my strategy. It's the view of a majority of Republicans, as reflected by polling. How could we not hear the very loud caucus of people who insist that Trump simply cannot win? To be fair, they are not talking nonsense. Problem for that caucus is, though, the full body of publicly polling simply does not make a compelling cast to support their conclusion. Nor does any reasonable reading of the landscape going forward on current issues and their likely trends. Sure, there are reasons to be concerned about a Trump candidacy. Unfortunately, no other candidate in the field is clearly stronger. Some may poll better in a few swing states, but that improvement is marginal, at the outside edge of the margin of error....at best. A clear, if narrow, majority of Republicans are rejecting the protestations of the wizards of smart and making the best judgment possible at this moment = the bird in the hand is better than any of the others in the bush. That may change. Or it may not. We will know soon enough. But at this point in time, no candidate in the GOP field has a significantly better pathway than the current front runner. We may not like that. We just have to deal with it. If/when that changes, we'll have to deal with that, too.

The best thing Trump opponents can do to help RDS or Scott or (etc......) is to quit talking about electability and start talking about issues.
This argues pretty strongly against your thesis that the winner of the primary is the best candidate in the general. I think the point is that Trump support has a hard ceiling that other candidates don't. May or may not be true, but I suspect it is.
Not really. How does one make that case that a candidate with 20% support within the party is stronger in the general? By definition, that 2nd place candidate has a very large problem of shoring up support and generating turnout within his/her own base which is every bit as big a problem to fix as picking up a point or 3 in the middle of the spectrum.

Now, that's a different deal than a closely divided party.....55-45 among two candidates. Typically, the 55 will tap the 45 to be the VP and the party is united. But that's not the scenario before us at the moment. We are looking at 55-20-8-6-5-3, 2,1, eieio..... NONE of the field, other than the front runner, is in anything remotely approaching a viable, much less strong position to build a massive coalition.

Until now, I've assumed RDS would strengthen (and he may still yet do so) and be able to unite the party by joining the ticket. But his polling numbers are drifting in the wrong way. That leaves us with a lot of less clear scenarios to unite the party, foremost of which would be to try to pick up a swing state with the VP tap, either GA (Kemp) or VA (Youngkin). There are obviously issues to overcome with either, but it's a bit early to start handicapping that stuff. And, frankly, we'd be better served getting RDS back on the rails.
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whiterock
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9:24a, 8/20/23
To wit:


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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 10:36a, 8/20/23
whiterock said:
To wit:


Maybe we're arguing 2 different things. I agree GOP voters are not buying the electability argument for non-Trump candidates. I'm just saying I disagree with them, and that general election polling does not support or refute either argument. I disagree simply because I don't see how you get around Trump's unfavorables. They are historically bad and have been for a long time.

I know you know this, but, in addition, there has always been a direct correlation between how a candidate polls within their party and every other question about that candidate. In other words, because Trump is polling so well, all polling questions will favor him. For example, not only his electability, but also whether he should participate in debates. Amazingly, a majority or more of GOP voters support his decision to skip. That is truly a first - voters in either party saying they don't think a candidate should debate.
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Sam Lowry
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In reply to whiterock • 10:58a, 8/20/23
whiterock said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


So, the strategy is, yes, our candidate it terrible but Biden is more terrible.

SMH.
SMH. It's not my strategy. It's the view of a majority of Republicans, as reflected by polling. How could we not hear the very loud caucus of people who insist that Trump simply cannot win? To be fair, they are not talking nonsense. Problem for that caucus is, though, the full body of publicly polling simply does not make a compelling cast to support their conclusion. Nor does any reasonable reading of the landscape going forward on current issues and their likely trends. Sure, there are reasons to be concerned about a Trump candidacy. Unfortunately, no other candidate in the field is clearly stronger. Some may poll better in a few swing states, but that improvement is marginal, at the outside edge of the margin of error....at best. A clear, if narrow, majority of Republicans are rejecting the protestations of the wizards of smart and making the best judgment possible at this moment = the bird in the hand is better than any of the others in the bush. That may change. Or it may not. We will know soon enough. But at this point in time, no candidate in the GOP field has a significantly better pathway than the current front runner. We may not like that. We just have to deal with it. If/when that changes, we'll have to deal with that, too.

The best thing Trump opponents can do to help RDS or Scott or (etc......) is to quit talking about electability and start talking about issues.
This argues pretty strongly against your thesis that the winner of the primary is the best candidate in the general. I think the point is that Trump support has a hard ceiling that other candidates don't. May or may not be true, but I suspect it is.
Not really. How does one make that case that a candidate with 20% support within the party is stronger in the general? By definition, that 2nd place candidate has a very large problem of shoring up support and generating turnout within his/her own base which is every bit as big a problem to fix as picking up a point or 3 in the middle of the spectrum.

Now, that's a different deal than a closely divided party.....55-45 among two candidates. Typically, the 55 will tap the 45 to be the VP and the party is united. But that's not the scenario before us at the moment. We are looking at 55-20-8-6-5-3, 2,1, eieio..... NONE of the field, other than the front runner, is in anything remotely approaching a viable, much less strong position to build a massive coalition.

Until now, I've assumed RDS would strengthen (and he may still yet do so) and be able to unite the party by joining the ticket. But his polling numbers are drifting in the wrong way. That leaves us with a lot of less clear scenarios to unite the party, foremost of which would be to try to pick up a swing state with the VP tap, either GA (Kemp) or VA (Youngkin). There are obviously issues to overcome with either, but it's a bit early to start handicapping that stuff. And, frankly, we'd be better served getting RDS back on the rails.
I agree, assuming it's not closely divided. It is early yet.
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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 11:02a, 8/20/23
sombear said:
whiterock said:
To wit:


Maybe we're arguing 2 different things. I agree GOP voters are not buying the electability argument for non-Trump candidates. I'm just saying I disagree with them, and that general election polling does not support or refute either argument. I disagree simply because I don't see how you get around Trump's unfavorables. They are historically bad and have been for a long time.

I know you know this, but, in addition, there has always been a direct correlation between how a candidate polls within their party and every other question about that candidate. In other words, because Trump is polling so well, all polling questions will favor him. For example, not only his electability, but also whether he should participate in debates. Amazingly, a majority or more of GOP voters support his decision to skip. That is truly a first - voters in either party saying they don't think a candidate should debate.

The Trump unfavorables argument is valid, but all too often the people citing it fail to address the Biden unfavorables argument, which is just as bad.

So the real question is, where's the floor for each? I would argue we're at the floor for Trump and that Biden has much further to fall.

Yes, in a perfect world, we are working top-lines rather than floors, but we really don't have anyone significantly better than Trump ….yet. Again, noting that is not an argument that Trump will be the best option, just that he IS a viable option.
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Cobretti
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11:22a, 8/20/23
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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In reply to Cobretti • 12:26p, 8/20/23
Cobretti said:
The Dems will see to it that Donald Trump will never, ever win another election. By any means necessary, - legal and/ or illegal. The blueprint from the 2020 Election will be repeated. Who is going to stop them? Nobody.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
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Osodecentx
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In reply to whiterock • 2:07p, 8/20/23
whiterock said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


So, the strategy is, yes, our candidate it terrible but Biden is more terrible.

SMH.
SMH. It's not my strategy. It's the view of a majority of Republicans, as reflected by polling. How could we not hear the very loud caucus of people who insist that Trump simply cannot win? To be fair, they are not talking nonsense. Problem for that caucus is, though, the full body of publicly polling simply does not make a compelling cast to support their conclusion. Nor does any reasonable reading of the landscape going forward on current issues and their likely trends. Sure, there are reasons to be concerned about a Trump candidacy. Unfortunately, no other candidate in the field is clearly stronger. Some may poll better in a few swing states, but that improvement is marginal, at the outside edge of the margin of error....at best. A clear, if narrow, majority of Republicans are rejecting the protestations of the wizards of smart and making the best judgment possible at this moment = the bird in the hand is better than any of the others in the bush. That may change. Or it may not. We will know soon enough. But at this point in time, no candidate in the GOP field has a significantly better pathway than the current front runner. We may not like that. We just have to deal with it. If/when that changes, we'll have to deal with that, too.

The best thing Trump opponents can do to help RDS or Scott or (etc......) is to quit talking about electability and start talking about issues.
This argues pretty strongly against your thesis that the winner of the primary is the best candidate in the general. I think the point is that Trump support has a hard ceiling that other candidates don't. May or may not be true, but I suspect it is.
Not really. How does one make that case that a candidate with 20% support within the party is stronger in the general? By definition, that 2nd place candidate has a very large problem of shoring up support and generating turnout within his/her own base which is every bit as big a problem to fix as picking up a point or 3 in the middle of the spectrum.

Now, that's a different deal than a closely divided party.....55-45 among two candidates. Typically, the 55 will tap the 45 to be the VP and the party is united. But that's not the scenario before us at the moment. We are looking at 55-20-8-6-5-3, 2,1, eieio..... NONE of the field, other than the front runner, is in anything remotely approaching a viable, much less strong position to build a massive coalition.

Until now, I've assumed RDS would strengthen (and he may still yet do so) and be able to unite the party by joining the ticket. But his polling numbers are drifting in the wrong way. That leaves us with a lot of less clear scenarios to unite the party, foremost of which would be to try to pick up a swing state with the VP tap, either GA (Kemp) or VA (Youngkin). There are obviously issues to overcome with either, but it's a bit early to start handicapping that stuff. And, frankly, we'd be better served getting RDS back on the rails.
Trump is running as an incumbent with 100% name recognition, yet he has barely a majority of Republican voters. I believe that is bad news for DJT, especially when the Democrats nominate someone besides Biden
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whiterock
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In reply to RD2WINAGNBEAR86 • 5:53a, 8/21/23
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Cobretti said:
The Dems will see to it that Donald Trump will never, ever win another election. By any means necessary, - legal and/ or illegal. The blueprint from the 2020 Election will be repeated. Who is going to stop them? Nobody.
I can understand where you are coming from on that question.

But what Republican WOULD the Dems "allow" to get elected?

If you believe that part in bold, the you are tacitly admitting that the GOP will never win another election due to the system being rigged against them.
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whiterock
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In reply to Osodecentx • 6:13a, 8/21/23
Osodecentx said:
whiterock said:
Sam Lowry said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Ouch

and Biden is just as bad and slipping.....

Michigan poll showing toss-up:


So, the strategy is, yes, our candidate it terrible but Biden is more terrible.

SMH.
SMH. It's not my strategy. It's the view of a majority of Republicans, as reflected by polling. How could we not hear the very loud caucus of people who insist that Trump simply cannot win? To be fair, they are not talking nonsense. Problem for that caucus is, though, the full body of publicly polling simply does not make a compelling cast to support their conclusion. Nor does any reasonable reading of the landscape going forward on current issues and their likely trends. Sure, there are reasons to be concerned about a Trump candidacy. Unfortunately, no other candidate in the field is clearly stronger. Some may poll better in a few swing states, but that improvement is marginal, at the outside edge of the margin of error....at best. A clear, if narrow, majority of Republicans are rejecting the protestations of the wizards of smart and making the best judgment possible at this moment = the bird in the hand is better than any of the others in the bush. That may change. Or it may not. We will know soon enough. But at this point in time, no candidate in the GOP field has a significantly better pathway than the current front runner. We may not like that. We just have to deal with it. If/when that changes, we'll have to deal with that, too.

The best thing Trump opponents can do to help RDS or Scott or (etc......) is to quit talking about electability and start talking about issues.
This argues pretty strongly against your thesis that the winner of the primary is the best candidate in the general. I think the point is that Trump support has a hard ceiling that other candidates don't. May or may not be true, but I suspect it is.
Not really. How does one make that case that a candidate with 20% support within the party is stronger in the general? By definition, that 2nd place candidate has a very large problem of shoring up support and generating turnout within his/her own base which is every bit as big a problem to fix as picking up a point or 3 in the middle of the spectrum.

Now, that's a different deal than a closely divided party.....55-45 among two candidates. Typically, the 55 will tap the 45 to be the VP and the party is united. But that's not the scenario before us at the moment. We are looking at 55-20-8-6-5-3, 2,1, eieio..... NONE of the field, other than the front runner, is in anything remotely approaching a viable, much less strong position to build a massive coalition.

Until now, I've assumed RDS would strengthen (and he may still yet do so) and be able to unite the party by joining the ticket. But his polling numbers are drifting in the wrong way. That leaves us with a lot of less clear scenarios to unite the party, foremost of which would be to try to pick up a swing state with the VP tap, either GA (Kemp) or VA (Youngkin). There are obviously issues to overcome with either, but it's a bit early to start handicapping that stuff. And, frankly, we'd be better served getting RDS back on the rails.
Trump is running as an incumbent with 100% name recognition, yet he has barely a majority of Republican voters. I believe that is bad news for DJT, especially when the Democrats nominate someone besides Biden
Fair point. I've often (and subjectively) opined that any incumbent with less than 70% primary support is in showing weakness with the base on one or more issues. (Specifically was referring to Cornyn, whoat that time entered the primaries with support in the high 50's.) But then Cornyn won primary and general, so the assessments on such things are perhaps more important for understanding the complexion of the primary electorate than looking at the general. In Cornyn's case, it meant he had some discontent within the party base for votes & rhetoric (but not enough to cause erosion of turnout.)

but more importantly with respect to Trump (who was at 60% in a CBS poll released yesterday), look at the rest of the field. How does a guy at 12% (give or take ten points) do any better in turnout in the general? Moreover, Trump's problem is not Cornyn's problem. Trump WILL bring the base, energized in a way a Cornyn-type candidate finds unseemly. Trump's problems will be with with the softer voters in the middle, who will be facing a real dilemma when staring down at a ballot with the names Trump and Biden on it. Some will even throw their vote away on a notional third candidate just so they can brag that they were too principled to participate meaningfully in the process, rather than act like an adult to make compromises to join coalitions that can get things done.
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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In reply to whiterock • 6:52a, 8/21/23
whiterock said:
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Cobretti said:
The Dems will see to it that Donald Trump will never, ever win another election. By any means necessary, - legal and/ or illegal. The blueprint from the 2020 Election will be repeated. Who is going to stop them? Nobody.
I can understand where you are coming from on that question.

But what Republican WOULD the Dems "allow" to get elected?

If you believe that part in bold, the you are tacitly admitting that the GOP will never win another election due to the system being rigged against them.
That is my biggest fear. The Republicans put on a good show but are way too passive.

If the demented, corrupt, mean-spirited, mysogonist bigot wins reelection, we will know for sure.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
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Mothra
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In reply to whiterock • 9:27a, 8/21/23
If it's Trump v. Biden, who do you think wins?
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