🇺🇲 2024 GE: MICHIGAN

(R) Trump 42%
(D) Biden 35%
---
Someone else 20%
——
(D) Whitmer 46%
(R) Trump 40%
——
Job Approval:
Gov. Whitmer: 53/37 (+16)
Pres. Biden: 31/58 (-27)

MRG (B/C) | 600 LV | 10/2-8 | ±4%https://t.co/7ygJEzAVXs pic.twitter.com/bEqcJ5meGN

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 11, 2023

Terrorists have murdered at least 1,200 Israelis and 22 Americans and are holding more hostage, so it is absurd that anyone, much less someone running for President, would choose now to attack our friend and ally, Israel, much less praise Hezbollah terrorists as “very smart.”

As… pic.twitter.com/408e82OVDP

— Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) October 12, 2023

Posted for polling numbers, not the commentary.

Republicans are the dumbest party on the planet. MAGA is the future, they are the dinosaurs of the past. https://t.co/YbQMs89f1O

— Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit) October 11, 2023

Trump is leading on the RCP average nationally, in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

That just never happened in 2015/2016 or 2019/2020. pic.twitter.com/JHeyDVZWRc

— Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit) October 11, 2023

Mothra said:

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Jack Bauer said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Whoa. Trump just attacked Israel and said that he'll "never forget" that they didn't participate in the Soleimani operation. He said Israel "let us down" and needs to "straighten it out" and called them weak, saying they should "strengthen themselves up." pic.twitter.com/pMrWLt8ojz

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) October 12, 2023

---

Trump at his finest.

Largest casualty of Jews in one day since the Holocaust

Trump - how can I make this about me.

---

Both petty and tone deaf, as usual. And praising our enemies, as usual.

He's making it more difficult by the day for me to vote for him if he's the nom.

It shocks me that the polls have turned in his favor. Just have to wonder if there are some shenanigans going on. How is this guy up on everyone?

---

This very well could be Trump's "What difference at this point does it make?" moment.

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Mothra said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

Whoa. Trump just attacked Israel and said that he'll "never forget" that they didn't participate in the Soleimani operation. He said Israel "let us down" and needs to "straighten it out" and called them weak, saying they should "strengthen themselves up." pic.twitter.com/pMrWLt8ojz

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) October 12, 2023

---

Trump at his finest.

Largest casualty of Jews in one day since the Holocaust

Trump - how can I make this about me.

---

Both petty and tone deaf, as usual. And praising our enemies, as usual.

He's making it more difficult by the day for me to vote for him if he's the nom.

It shocks me that the polls have turned in his favor. Just have to wonder if there are some shenanigans going on. How is this guy up on everyone?

---

This very well could be Trump's "What difference at this point does it make?" moment.

---

I hope so. Problem is, there's so many Republican contenders, that they weaken the entire field against him.

Trump is going to do what's best for Trump, country be damned.

Mothra said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

Whoa. Trump just attacked Israel and said that he'll "never forget" that they didn't participate in the Soleimani operation. He said Israel "let us down" and needs to "straighten it out" and called them weak, saying they should "strengthen themselves up." pic.twitter.com/pMrWLt8ojz

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) October 12, 2023

---

Trump at his finest.

Largest casualty of Jews in one day since the Holocaust

Trump - how can I make this about me.

---

Both petty and tone deaf, as usual. And praising our enemies, as usual.

He's making it more difficult by the day for me to vote for him if he's the nom.

It shocks me that the polls have turned in his favor. Just have to wonder if there are some shenanigans going on. How is this guy up on everyone?

---

This very well could be Trump's "What difference at this point does it make?" moment.

---

I hope so. Problem is, there's so many Republican contenders, that they weaken the entire field against him.

Trump is going to do what's best for Trump, country be damned.

---

As I noted in the other thread.....nope. Y'all are pretty badly misreading this.

whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

Whoa. Trump just attacked Israel and said that he'll "never forget" that they didn't participate in the Soleimani operation. He said Israel "let us down" and needs to "straighten it out" and called them weak, saying they should "strengthen themselves up." pic.twitter.com/pMrWLt8ojz

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) October 12, 2023

---

Trump at his finest.

Largest casualty of Jews in one day since the Holocaust

Trump - how can I make this about me.

---

Both petty and tone deaf, as usual. And praising our enemies, as usual.

He's making it more difficult by the day for me to vote for him if he's the nom.

It shocks me that the polls have turned in his favor. Just have to wonder if there are some shenanigans going on. How is this guy up on everyone?

---

This very well could be Trump's "What difference at this point does it make?" moment.

---

I hope so. Problem is, there's so many Republican contenders, that they weaken the entire field against him.

Trump is going to do what's best for Trump, country be damned.

---

As I noted in the other thread.....nope. Y'all are pretty badly misreading this.

---

Hoping so is bad at misreading? LOL. Ooook.

I realize Trump is correct, and he could murder someone on the street, and people such as yourself would still support him and never criticize him for it. Instead, we would get a treatise from you about how the media is silly for attacking Trump for murder, and claim the individual probably deserved it.

I have no illusions this will move the needle at all. Trump will be the nominee, and lose the general (with or without my support) - just like last time.

One thing I noticed, that no one else has mentioned so far that I see, is how Trump's General Election polling is always in the mid-40s. That tells me that Trump's national support is about the same as it was in 2016 and 2020, the reason he is leading Biden is because very few voters want Biden to run in 2024.

For all their reputation as political geniuses, the nerfs at the DNC seem to be just as stupid this time as the ones at the RNC. The Democrats have done a piss poor job selling anyone but Ice Cream Joe as their flag-pooper for next year, and it may soon be too late to run anyone else.

If that happens, expect a lot of voter disillusion and the election may well come down to who does a better GOTFV job.

Biden edges out Trump in Fox News poll, loses to DeSantis or Haley

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4251779-biden-trump-desantis-haley-2024-poll-fox/

Been saying this a long time. When it comes to a binary choice between the two, Biden is going to win. Again. Trump has a way of galvanizing the support of Democrats for their nominee, regardless of how much they may not want him to run.

Mothra said:

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Biden edges out Trump in Fox News poll, loses to DeSantis or Haley

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4251779-biden-trump-desantis-haley-2024-poll-fox/

Been saying this a long time. When it comes to a binary choice between the two, Biden is going to win. Again. Trump has a way of galvanizing the support of Democrats for their nominee, regardless of how much they may not want him to run.

---

I think that is premature. Trump can win against Biden, old Joe is really that weak now.

But it's not a good thing for the country to be looking at Biden or Trump as the two most likely people to sit in the Oval Office in February 2025.

Problem is that the GOP is ignoring their base, just as the Democrats seem to be taking theirs for granted.

Trump is mad because Mr. Netanyahu publicly acknowledged that President Biden won the 2020 election, as if a foreign leader could say anything else. "He was very earlylike earlier than most. I haven't spoken to him since. F him," he told a writer for Axios.

Is there a left-leaning source you won't quote?

Oldbear83 said:

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One thing I noticed, that no one else has mentioned so far that I see, is how Trump's General Election polling is always in the mid-40s. That tells me that Trump's national support is about the same as it was in 2016 and 2020, the reason he is leading Biden is because very few voters want Biden to run in 2024.

For all their reputation as political geniuses, the nerfs at the DNC seem to be just as stupid this time as the ones at the RNC. The Democrats have done a piss poor job selling anyone but Ice Cream Joe as their flag-pooper for next year, and it may soon be too late to run anyone else.

If that happens, expect a lot of voter disillusion and the election may well come down to who does a better GOTFV job.

---

You describe accurately the dynamic that I've been pointing to for over a year. Trump has a cast iron floor, a good record in office, and free to campaign as a challenger. Biden, on the other hand, has a very soft floor, a disastrous record in office, and will be the incumbent. As things deteriorate, Biden will sag even further. Poll below is consistent with all that. Both of these men are historically unpoular, leading to very high and likely durable "undecided" and "someone else" responses. Most of those two kinds of voters will either not vote, or will vote for a third party candidate. The election will likely be won by the major party candidate with the highest floor, in an outcome that will look something like 45 Trump, 40 Biden, 15 Others.

That's what I said it looked like a year ago. As we are move forward, events and polling are tracking consistently in that direction. Anything can happen, a big terror attack here, further economic deterioration, major health issue with one of the candidates, plane crash, etc..... but most of those will more likely help Trump than Biden. In 60 days, the field of candidates will be set, and it will likely be a very, very ugly, un-fun race that Trump should have a very good chance of winning.

Just said if Wisconsin had a recent poll it is likely Trump would be leading the RCP in that state, as well.

There it is. He's leading in all the Rust Belt State averages.

Again, never in 2015/2016 or 2019/2020.

Never. https://t.co/GAsyQ0UPhc

— Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit) October 12, 2023

Mothra said:

---

Biden edges out Trump in Fox News poll, loses to DeSantis or Haley

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4251779-biden-trump-desantis-haley-2024-poll-fox/

Been saying this a long time. When it comes to a binary choice between the two, Biden is going to win. Again. Trump has a way of galvanizing the support of Democrats for their nominee, regardless of how much they may not want him to run.

---

That one comes with caution statements on outlier and bias.

Outlier: I've only seen one other poll on this question that shows a similar outcome - Haley beating Biden, Desantis not. Trump also beat Biden in that poll, but by a smaller margin than Haley. (which at least partially tracks with the Fox poll).

Bias: In addition to not being in the top tier for accuracy, Fox ownership has a declared bias. It would be very easy to take results for the poll I noted above, fiddle in minor ways with the demographics, and get exactly the outcome Fox reported....

So you have to set that in the "hold pile" and wait for more information to flow in. It may be on the cusp of a new dynamic. Or it may be something closer to spin than not.

Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

Whoa. Trump just attacked Israel and said that he'll "never forget" that they didn't participate in the Soleimani operation. He said Israel "let us down" and needs to "straighten it out" and called them weak, saying they should "strengthen themselves up." pic.twitter.com/pMrWLt8ojz

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) October 12, 2023

---

Trump at his finest.

Largest casualty of Jews in one day since the Holocaust

Trump - how can I make this about me.

---

Both petty and tone deaf, as usual. And praising our enemies, as usual.

He's making it more difficult by the day for me to vote for him if he's the nom.

It shocks me that the polls have turned in his favor. Just have to wonder if there are some shenanigans going on. How is this guy up on everyone?

---

This very well could be Trump's "What difference at this point does it make?" moment.

---

I hope so. Problem is, there's so many Republican contenders, that they weaken the entire field against him.

Trump is going to do what's best for Trump, country be damned.

---

As I noted in the other thread.....nope. Y'all are pretty badly misreading this.

---

Hoping so is bad at misreading? LOL. Ooook.

I realize Trump is correct, and he could murder someone on the street, and people such as yourself would still support him and never criticize him for it. Instead, we would get a treatise from you about how the media is silly for attacking Trump for murder, and claim the individual probably deserved it.

I have no illusions this will move the needle at all. Trump will be the nominee, and lose the general (with or without my support) - just like last time.

---

It will not move the needle because your bias causes you to misread the issue and make an exceedingly silly point. Noting the that one's adversaries are strong, cunning, wise, etc....is not endorsing one's adversaries. It shows one is cautious, wise, and prepared.....the kind of leader that guides his country thru 4 years of peace (no new wars: resolutions of old ones).

I just saw a poll from Israel; 80% think their government was totally unprepared for the attack, an indictment on the current government. And we have confirmed reporting that Egypt warned Israel that an attack was coming.* That's probably why Bibi reached out to the opposition and formed a War Cabinet. That is partly a statement of unity to enemies; partly a political move to give time to win back public support by mounting a very strong, successful counter-attack. Maintaining political support to govern is always an issue in a democracy, and never moreso than in War. He would not have done the war cabinet if he had a strong position from which to govern.

Israel got caught with its pants down.
BOTH Israeli and US public officials made sophomorically unwise statements about Hizballah..
The Israeli-Hamas war comes in a context of growing American weariness with expensive proxy wars.
Trump's statements will not hurt him, because they are correct, and because they highlight his demonstrated skill in foreign affairs which is sorely lacking in the administration of his opponent.

*It's pretty easy to backfill the reasons why Israel did not give enough weight to the Egypt warning, but that is for another post.
Hate negatively affects analysis. You gotta learn to set it aside.

whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

Whoa. Trump just attacked Israel and said that he'll "never forget" that they didn't participate in the Soleimani operation. He said Israel "let us down" and needs to "straighten it out" and called them weak, saying they should "strengthen themselves up." pic.twitter.com/pMrWLt8ojz

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) October 12, 2023

---

Trump at his finest.

Largest casualty of Jews in one day since the Holocaust

Trump - how can I make this about me.

---

Both petty and tone deaf, as usual. And praising our enemies, as usual.

He's making it more difficult by the day for me to vote for him if he's the nom.

It shocks me that the polls have turned in his favor. Just have to wonder if there are some shenanigans going on. How is this guy up on everyone?

---

This very well could be Trump's "What difference at this point does it make?" moment.

---

I hope so. Problem is, there's so many Republican contenders, that they weaken the entire field against him.

Trump is going to do what's best for Trump, country be damned.

---

As I noted in the other thread.....nope. Y'all are pretty badly misreading this.

---

Hoping so is bad at misreading? LOL. Ooook.

I realize Trump is correct, and he could murder someone on the street, and people such as yourself would still support him and never criticize him for it. Instead, we would get a treatise from you about how the media is silly for attacking Trump for murder, and claim the individual probably deserved it.

I have no illusions this will move the needle at all. Trump will be the nominee, and lose the general (with or without my support) - just like last time.

---

It will not move the needle because your bias causes you to misread the issue and make an exceedingly silly point. Noting the that one's adversaries are strong, cunning, wise, etc....is not endorsing one's adversaries. It shows one is cautious, wise, and prepared.....the kind of leader that guides his country thru 4 years of peace (no new wars: resolutions of old ones).

I just saw a poll from Israel; 80% think their government was totally unprepared for the attack, an indictment on the current government. And we have confirmed reporting that Egypt warned Israel that an attack was coming.* That's probably why Bibi reached out to the opposition and formed a War Cabinet. That is partly a statement of unity to enemies; partly a political move to give time to win back public support by mounting a very strong, successful counter-attack. Maintaining political support to govern is always an issue in a democracy, and never moreso than in War. He would not have done the war cabinet if he had a strong position from which to govern.

Israel got caught with its pants down.
BOTH Israeli and US public officials made sophomorically unwise statements about Hizballah..
The Israeli-Hamas war comes in a context of growing American weariness with expensive proxy wars.
Trump's statements will not hurt him, because they are correct, and because they highlight his demonstrated skill in foreign affairs which is sorely lacking in the administration of his opponent.

*It's pretty easy to backfill the reasons why Israel did not give enough weight to the Egypt warning, but that is for another post.
Hate negatively affects analysis. You gotta learn to set it aside.

---

Gotcha. It's MY bias that is causing me to "totally misread" what Trump has said, despite your complete inability to say anything critical of Trump. LOL. Such irony.

Look, I know you love to try and turn Trump's chicken **** into chicken salad, which I fully acknowledge is a tall order, but let's pretend for a moment that after 9/11, an allied country's leadership came out and said, "America was totally unprepared for 9/11, and its leadership did a terrible job of protecting the country. Osama bin Laden is a very smart, bright guy." Think that is something that would have gone over well as thousands of Americans' blood were on bin Laden's hands? Think that might, MIGHT, be just a smidge tone deaf after thousands of Americans were slaughtered by bin Laden? And when such criticisms, lobbied at our allies, are the result of petty personal grievances, such as for instance the Israeli govt. being too quick to state the obvious - that Biden won the 2020 election - you think maybe that "criticism" lacks just a smidge of common human decency, even if the critiques are ultimately accurate? Think the timing of such scathing critiques, combined with praise of the enemy responsible for innocents' deaths, may be even a little bit ill-timed?

These questions are somewhat rhetorical, as I think any reasonable and decent human being knows the answers. I know you will never be critical of Trump, given your overriding goal to see him get elected, which in your mind trumps everything else (no pun intended), but we both know that his comments were disgusting, petty, and in poor taste, at a very minimum. Disdain for someone's behavior and comments does not occur in a vacuum, whiterock.

Yes, I realize Trump has a pretty rock solid floor given the fact people like yourself would vote for him no matter that he did, but he needs more than just his sycophants to win the election, as 2020 proved. Comments like these, aside from being despicable, do nothing but hurt Trump's chances, which is why he is going to lose - again - when he's the nominee. And I would respectfully submit you might want to check your own bias regarding Trump before accusing others of bias.

whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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Biden edges out Trump in Fox News poll, loses to DeSantis or Haley

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4251779-biden-trump-desantis-haley-2024-poll-fox/

Been saying this a long time. When it comes to a binary choice between the two, Biden is going to win. Again. Trump has a way of galvanizing the support of Democrats for their nominee, regardless of how much they may not want him to run.

---

That one comes with caution statements on outlier and bias.

Outlier: I've only seen one other poll on this question that shows a similar outcome - Haley beating Biden, Desantis not. Trump also beat Biden in that poll, but by a smaller margin than Haley. (which at least partially tracks with the Fox poll).

Bias: In addition to not being in the top tier for accuracy, Fox ownership has a declared bias. It would be very easy to take results for the poll I noted above, fiddle in minor ways with the demographics, and get exactly the outcome Fox reported....

So you have to set that in the "hold pile" and wait for more information to flow in. It may be on the cusp of a new dynamic. Or it may be something closer to spin than not.

---

$1k says Trump loses the general, regardless of who the Dems run. As confident as you appear, this should be easy money. Let me know if you're willing to put your money where your mouth is.

Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

Whoa. Trump just attacked Israel and said that he'll "never forget" that they didn't participate in the Soleimani operation. He said Israel "let us down" and needs to "straighten it out" and called them weak, saying they should "strengthen themselves up." pic.twitter.com/pMrWLt8ojz

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) October 12, 2023

---

Trump at his finest.

Largest casualty of Jews in one day since the Holocaust

Trump - how can I make this about me.

---

Both petty and tone deaf, as usual. And praising our enemies, as usual.

He's making it more difficult by the day for me to vote for him if he's the nom.

It shocks me that the polls have turned in his favor. Just have to wonder if there are some shenanigans going on. How is this guy up on everyone?

---

This very well could be Trump's "What difference at this point does it make?" moment.

---

I hope so. Problem is, there's so many Republican contenders, that they weaken the entire field against him.

Trump is going to do what's best for Trump, country be damned.

---

As I noted in the other thread.....nope. Y'all are pretty badly misreading this.

---

Hoping so is bad at misreading? LOL. Ooook.

I realize Trump is correct, and he could murder someone on the street, and people such as yourself would still support him and never criticize him for it. Instead, we would get a treatise from you about how the media is silly for attacking Trump for murder, and claim the individual probably deserved it.

I have no illusions this will move the needle at all. Trump will be the nominee, and lose the general (with or without my support) - just like last time.

---

It will not move the needle because your bias causes you to misread the issue and make an exceedingly silly point. Noting the that one's adversaries are strong, cunning, wise, etc....is not endorsing one's adversaries. It shows one is cautious, wise, and prepared.....the kind of leader that guides his country thru 4 years of peace (no new wars: resolutions of old ones).

I just saw a poll from Israel; 80% think their government was totally unprepared for the attack, an indictment on the current government. And we have confirmed reporting that Egypt warned Israel that an attack was coming.* That's probably why Bibi reached out to the opposition and formed a War Cabinet. That is partly a statement of unity to enemies; partly a political move to give time to win back public support by mounting a very strong, successful counter-attack. Maintaining political support to govern is always an issue in a democracy, and never moreso than in War. He would not have done the war cabinet if he had a strong position from which to govern.

Israel got caught with its pants down.
BOTH Israeli and US public officials made sophomorically unwise statements about Hizballah..
The Israeli-Hamas war comes in a context of growing American weariness with expensive proxy wars.
Trump's statements will not hurt him, because they are correct, and because they highlight his demonstrated skill in foreign affairs which is sorely lacking in the administration of his opponent.

*It's pretty easy to backfill the reasons why Israel did not give enough weight to the Egypt warning, but that is for another post.
Hate negatively affects analysis. You gotta learn to set it aside.

---

Gotcha. It's MY bias that is causing me to "totally misread" what Trump has said, despite your complete inability to say anything critical of Trump. LOL. Such irony.

Look, I know you love to try and turn Trump's chicken **** into chicken salad, which I fully acknowledge is a tall order, but let's pretend for a moment that after 9/11, an allied country's leadership came out and said, "America was totally unprepared for 9/11, and its leadership did a terrible job of protecting the country. Osama bin Laden is a very smart, bright guy." Think that is something that would have gone over well as thousands of Americans' blood were on bin Laden's hands? Think that might, MIGHT, be just a smidge tone deaf after thousands of Americans were slaughtered by bin Laden? And when such criticisms, lobbied at our allies, are the result of petty personal grievances, such as for instance the Israeli govt. being too quick to state the obvious - that Biden won the 2020 election - you think maybe that "criticism" lacks just a smidge of common human decency, even if the critiques are ultimately accurate? Think the timing of such scathing critiques, combined with praise of the enemy responsible for innocents' deaths, may be even a little bit ill-timed?

These questions are somewhat rhetorical, as I think any reasonable and decent human being knows the answers. I know you will never be critical of Trump, given your overriding goal to see him get elected, which in your mind trumps everything else (no pun intended), but we both know that his comments were disgusting, petty, and in poor taste, at a very minimum. Disdain for someone's behavior and comments does not occur in a vacuum, whiterock.

Yes, I realize Trump has a pretty rock solid floor given the fact people like yourself would vote for him no matter that he did, but he needs more than just his sycophants to win the election, as 2020 proved. Comments like these, aside from being despicable, do nothing but hurt Trump's chances, which is why he is going to lose - again - when he's the nominee. And I would respectfully submit you might want to check your own bias regarding Trump before accusing others of bias.

---

Pretty funny that you keep calling me a MAGA-head solely for pointing out the holes in your analysis. If Trump is still in a commanding position in the polls, I'll vote for him in the primary for the sake of unity - to drive up his numbers and make it harder for dissidents to get oxygen. We will need unity. If his numbers crater due to legal issues (not likely, but possible), I'll vote for one of the three closest to him, each of whom I like (for different reasons).

You're the one spinning the "smart" comments. Not me. They've made headlines, but had no real impact on anything. They make the attacker feel good, but in fact that particular attack is really, really silly. And the swipe at the Israeli deputy minister? well, that will do no harm either. He's not POTUS, so it will have no meaning in statecraft, but it does speak to the concerns of growing number of Americans. So as hard as it is for a die-hard Israel supporter like me to hear, it is good politics, particularly so for a primary.

You are wasting your breath on both things. They will have no impact on him whatsoever.

I both agree and disagree. Trump certainly has a floor, as does Biden. And Trump's floor is higher than Biden's floor, for what should be obvious reasons.

But since 2015, I have never seen a poll where Trump polled above 50%. That means Trump depends on his opponent having high negative numbers, which is why the Democrats are being stupid.

I don't like the possible Democrat replacements for Biden, but there are several which would have much lower negatives, and even if they poll poorly now, might be much stronger by the summer.

Sticking with Biden is the worst move Democrats could make, yet they seem committed to him.

whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

Whoa. Trump just attacked Israel and said that he'll "never forget" that they didn't participate in the Soleimani operation. He said Israel "let us down" and needs to "straighten it out" and called them weak, saying they should "strengthen themselves up." pic.twitter.com/pMrWLt8ojz

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) October 12, 2023

---

Trump at his finest.

Largest casualty of Jews in one day since the Holocaust

Trump - how can I make this about me.

---

Both petty and tone deaf, as usual. And praising our enemies, as usual.

He's making it more difficult by the day for me to vote for him if he's the nom.

It shocks me that the polls have turned in his favor. Just have to wonder if there are some shenanigans going on. How is this guy up on everyone?

---

This very well could be Trump's "What difference at this point does it make?" moment.

---

I hope so. Problem is, there's so many Republican contenders, that they weaken the entire field against him.

Trump is going to do what's best for Trump, country be damned.

---

As I noted in the other thread.....nope. Y'all are pretty badly misreading this.

---

Hoping so is bad at misreading? LOL. Ooook.

I realize Trump is correct, and he could murder someone on the street, and people such as yourself would still support him and never criticize him for it. Instead, we would get a treatise from you about how the media is silly for attacking Trump for murder, and claim the individual probably deserved it.

I have no illusions this will move the needle at all. Trump will be the nominee, and lose the general (with or without my support) - just like last time.

---

It will not move the needle because your bias causes you to misread the issue and make an exceedingly silly point. Noting the that one's adversaries are strong, cunning, wise, etc....is not endorsing one's adversaries. It shows one is cautious, wise, and prepared.....the kind of leader that guides his country thru 4 years of peace (no new wars: resolutions of old ones).

I just saw a poll from Israel; 80% think their government was totally unprepared for the attack, an indictment on the current government. And we have confirmed reporting that Egypt warned Israel that an attack was coming.* That's probably why Bibi reached out to the opposition and formed a War Cabinet. That is partly a statement of unity to enemies; partly a political move to give time to win back public support by mounting a very strong, successful counter-attack. Maintaining political support to govern is always an issue in a democracy, and never moreso than in War. He would not have done the war cabinet if he had a strong position from which to govern.

Israel got caught with its pants down.
BOTH Israeli and US public officials made sophomorically unwise statements about Hizballah..
The Israeli-Hamas war comes in a context of growing American weariness with expensive proxy wars.
Trump's statements will not hurt him, because they are correct, and because they highlight his demonstrated skill in foreign affairs which is sorely lacking in the administration of his opponent.

*It's pretty easy to backfill the reasons why Israel did not give enough weight to the Egypt warning, but that is for another post.
Hate negatively affects analysis. You gotta learn to set it aside.

---

Gotcha. It's MY bias that is causing me to "totally misread" what Trump has said, despite your complete inability to say anything critical of Trump. LOL. Such irony.

Look, I know you love to try and turn Trump's chicken **** into chicken salad, which I fully acknowledge is a tall order, but let's pretend for a moment that after 9/11, an allied country's leadership came out and said, "America was totally unprepared for 9/11, and its leadership did a terrible job of protecting the country. Osama bin Laden is a very smart, bright guy." Think that is something that would have gone over well as thousands of Americans' blood were on bin Laden's hands? Think that might, MIGHT, be just a smidge tone deaf after thousands of Americans were slaughtered by bin Laden? And when such criticisms, lobbied at our allies, are the result of petty personal grievances, such as for instance the Israeli govt. being too quick to state the obvious - that Biden won the 2020 election - you think maybe that "criticism" lacks just a smidge of common human decency, even if the critiques are ultimately accurate? Think the timing of such scathing critiques, combined with praise of the enemy responsible for innocents' deaths, may be even a little bit ill-timed?

These questions are somewhat rhetorical, as I think any reasonable and decent human being knows the answers. I know you will never be critical of Trump, given your overriding goal to see him get elected, which in your mind trumps everything else (no pun intended), but we both know that his comments were disgusting, petty, and in poor taste, at a very minimum. Disdain for someone's behavior and comments does not occur in a vacuum, whiterock.

Yes, I realize Trump has a pretty rock solid floor given the fact people like yourself would vote for him no matter that he did, but he needs more than just his sycophants to win the election, as 2020 proved. Comments like these, aside from being despicable, do nothing but hurt Trump's chances, which is why he is going to lose - again - when he's the nominee. And I would respectfully submit you might want to check your own bias regarding Trump before accusing others of bias.

---

Pretty funny that you keep calling me a MAGA-head solely for pointing out the holes in your analysis. If Trump is still in a commanding position in the polls, I'll vote for him in the primary for the sake of unity - to drive up his numbers and make it harder for dissidents to get oxygen. We will need unity. If his numbers crater due to legal issues (not likely, but possible), I'll vote for one of the three closest to him, each of whom I like (for different reasons).

You're the one spinning the "smart" comments. Not me. They've made headlines, but had no real impact on anything. They make the attacker feel good, but in fact that particular attack is really, really silly. And the swipe at the Israeli deputy minister? well, that will do no harm either. He's not POTUS, so it will have no meaning in statecraft, but it does speak to the concerns of growing number of Americans. So as hard as it is for a die-hard Israel supporter like me to hear, it is good politics, particularly so for a primary.

You are wasting your breath on both things. They will have no impact on him whatsoever.

---

What holes do you believe you've pointed out? You've not responded with a retort of anything I've said, other than believing that Trump's numbers outside of MAGA and sycophants such as yourself could be hurt, though you've wholly failed to provide a shred of evidence in support of this conclusion. To say you've poked holes in any analysis is a very charitable description of your baseless conclusions.

Of course you will vote for him in the primary. Is water wet?

Trump's comments were disgraceful and ill-timed. You know that, whether you are willing to admit it or not (we know you won't given your propensity for defending his bull****).

And what about my offer? Too afraid your boy might not pull it out to put your money where your mouth is?

whiterock said:

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Oldbear83 said:

---

One thing I noticed, that no one else has mentioned so far that I see, is how Trump's General Election polling is always in the mid-40s. That tells me that Trump's national support is about the same as it was in 2016 and 2020, the reason he is leading Biden is because very few voters want Biden to run in 2024.

For all their reputation as political geniuses, the nerfs at the DNC seem to be just as stupid this time as the ones at the RNC. The Democrats have done a piss poor job selling anyone but Ice Cream Joe as their flag-pooper for next year, and it may soon be too late to run anyone else.

If that happens, expect a lot of voter disillusion and the election may well come down to who does a better GOTFV job.

---

You describe accurately the dynamic that I've been pointing to for over a year. Trump has a cast iron floor, a good record in office, and free to campaign as a challenger. Biden, on the other hand, has a very soft floor, a disastrous record in office, and will be the incumbent. As things deteriorate, Biden will sag even further. Poll below is consistent with all that. Both of these men are historically unpoular, leading to very high and likely durable "undecided" and "someone else" responses. Most of those two kinds of voters will either not vote, or will vote for a third party candidate. The election will likely be won by the major party candidate with the highest floor, in an outcome that will look something like 45 Trump, 40 Biden, 15 Others.

That's what I said it looked like a year ago. As we are move forward, events and polling are tracking consistently in that direction. Anything can happen, a big terror attack here, further economic deterioration, major health issue with one of the candidates, plane crash, etc..... but most of those will more likely help Trump than Biden. In 60 days, the field of candidates will be set, and it will likely be a very, very ugly, un-fun race that Trump should have a very good chance of winning.

Just said if Wisconsin had a recent poll it is likely Trump would be leading the RCP in that state, as well.

There it is. He's leading in all the Rust Belt State averages.

Again, never in 2015/2016 or 2019/2020.

Never. https://t.co/GAsyQ0UPhc

— Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit) October 12, 2023

---

So the question is whether we are seeing a floor or a ceiling? He has a loyal following no doubt. But whether that is going to be it with all his negatives or will he get a significant complementary bump from Independents and moderates? You mention his positives, had just as many negatives.

I am really curious to see if you get to gloat or have a mouth open who knew moment?? I suspect the later is coming as the Dems will mobilize and we are talking about numbers no one thought possible.

Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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Biden edges out Trump in Fox News poll, loses to DeSantis or Haley

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4251779-biden-trump-desantis-haley-2024-poll-fox/

Been saying this a long time. When it comes to a binary choice between the two, Biden is going to win. Again. Trump has a way of galvanizing the support of Democrats for their nominee, regardless of how much they may not want him to run.

---

That one comes with caution statements on outlier and bias.

Outlier: I've only seen one other poll on this question that shows a similar outcome - Haley beating Biden, Desantis not. Trump also beat Biden in that poll, but by a smaller margin than Haley. (which at least partially tracks with the Fox poll).

Bias: In addition to not being in the top tier for accuracy, Fox ownership has a declared bias. It would be very easy to take results for the poll I noted above, fiddle in minor ways with the demographics, and get exactly the outcome Fox reported....

So you have to set that in the "hold pile" and wait for more information to flow in. It may be on the cusp of a new dynamic. Or it may be something closer to spin than not.

---

$1k says Trump loses the general, regardless of who the Dems run. As confident as you appear, this should be easy money. Let me know if you're willing to put your money where your mouth is.

---

I'll put up another $1K

Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Mothra said:

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Jack Bauer said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Whoa. Trump just attacked Israel and said that he'll "never forget" that they didn't participate in the Soleimani operation. He said Israel "let us down" and needs to "straighten it out" and called them weak, saying they should "strengthen themselves up." pic.twitter.com/pMrWLt8ojz

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) October 12, 2023

---

Trump at his finest.

Largest casualty of Jews in one day since the Holocaust

Trump - how can I make this about me.

---

Both petty and tone deaf, as usual. And praising our enemies, as usual.

He's making it more difficult by the day for me to vote for him if he's the nom.

It shocks me that the polls have turned in his favor. Just have to wonder if there are some shenanigans going on. How is this guy up on everyone?

---

This very well could be Trump's "What difference at this point does it make?" moment.

---

I hope so. Problem is, there's so many Republican contenders, that they weaken the entire field against him.

Trump is going to do what's best for Trump, country be damned.

---

As I noted in the other thread.....nope. Y'all are pretty badly misreading this.

---

Hoping so is bad at misreading? LOL. Ooook.

I realize Trump is correct, and he could murder someone on the street, and people such as yourself would still support him and never criticize him for it. Instead, we would get a treatise from you about how the media is silly for attacking Trump for murder, and claim the individual probably deserved it.

I have no illusions this will move the needle at all. Trump will be the nominee, and lose the general (with or without my support) - just like last time.

---

It will not move the needle because your bias causes you to misread the issue and make an exceedingly silly point. Noting the that one's adversaries are strong, cunning, wise, etc....is not endorsing one's adversaries. It shows one is cautious, wise, and prepared.....the kind of leader that guides his country thru 4 years of peace (no new wars: resolutions of old ones).

I just saw a poll from Israel; 80% think their government was totally unprepared for the attack, an indictment on the current government. And we have confirmed reporting that Egypt warned Israel that an attack was coming.* That's probably why Bibi reached out to the opposition and formed a War Cabinet. That is partly a statement of unity to enemies; partly a political move to give time to win back public support by mounting a very strong, successful counter-attack. Maintaining political support to govern is always an issue in a democracy, and never moreso than in War. He would not have done the war cabinet if he had a strong position from which to govern.

Israel got caught with its pants down.
BOTH Israeli and US public officials made sophomorically unwise statements about Hizballah..
The Israeli-Hamas war comes in a context of growing American weariness with expensive proxy wars.
Trump's statements will not hurt him, because they are correct, and because they highlight his demonstrated skill in foreign affairs which is sorely lacking in the administration of his opponent.

*It's pretty easy to backfill the reasons why Israel did not give enough weight to the Egypt warning, but that is for another post.
Hate negatively affects analysis. You gotta learn to set it aside.

---

Gotcha. It's MY bias that is causing me to "totally misread" what Trump has said, despite your complete inability to say anything critical of Trump. LOL. Such irony.

Look, I know you love to try and turn Trump's chicken **** into chicken salad, which I fully acknowledge is a tall order, but let's pretend for a moment that after 9/11, an allied country's leadership came out and said, "America was totally unprepared for 9/11, and its leadership did a terrible job of protecting the country. Osama bin Laden is a very smart, bright guy." Think that is something that would have gone over well as thousands of Americans' blood were on bin Laden's hands? Think that might, MIGHT, be just a smidge tone deaf after thousands of Americans were slaughtered by bin Laden? And when such criticisms, lobbied at our allies, are the result of petty personal grievances, such as for instance the Israeli govt. being too quick to state the obvious - that Biden won the 2020 election - you think maybe that "criticism" lacks just a smidge of common human decency, even if the critiques are ultimately accurate? Think the timing of such scathing critiques, combined with praise of the enemy responsible for innocents' deaths, may be even a little bit ill-timed?

These questions are somewhat rhetorical, as I think any reasonable and decent human being knows the answers. I know you will never be critical of Trump, given your overriding goal to see him get elected, which in your mind trumps everything else (no pun intended), but we both know that his comments were disgusting, petty, and in poor taste, at a very minimum. Disdain for someone's behavior and comments does not occur in a vacuum, whiterock.

Yes, I realize Trump has a pretty rock solid floor given the fact people like yourself would vote for him no matter that he did, but he needs more than just his sycophants to win the election, as 2020 proved. Comments like these, aside from being despicable, do nothing but hurt Trump's chances, which is why he is going to lose - again - when he's the nominee. And I would respectfully submit you might want to check your own bias regarding Trump before accusing others of bias.

---

Answering a poll to select people is one thing. Pulling the lever and voting for that person is another. Hillary found that out in 2016, but now Trump is the more unlikable candidate to most of the Nation. Let's see who starts winning primaries before crowning a winner.

J.R. said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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Biden edges out Trump in Fox News poll, loses to DeSantis or Haley

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4251779-biden-trump-desantis-haley-2024-poll-fox/

Been saying this a long time. When it comes to a binary choice between the two, Biden is going to win. Again. Trump has a way of galvanizing the support of Democrats for their nominee, regardless of how much they may not want him to run.

---

That one comes with caution statements on outlier and bias.

Outlier: I've only seen one other poll on this question that shows a similar outcome - Haley beating Biden, Desantis not. Trump also beat Biden in that poll, but by a smaller margin than Haley. (which at least partially tracks with the Fox poll).

Bias: In addition to not being in the top tier for accuracy, Fox ownership has a declared bias. It would be very easy to take results for the poll I noted above, fiddle in minor ways with the demographics, and get exactly the outcome Fox reported....

So you have to set that in the "hold pile" and wait for more information to flow in. It may be on the cusp of a new dynamic. Or it may be something closer to spin than not.

---

$1k says Trump loses the general, regardless of who the Dems run. As confident as you appear, this should be easy money. Let me know if you're willing to put your money where your mouth is.

---

I'll put up another $1K

---

Easy money.

Trump loses to any Dem nominee.

Oldbear83 said:

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I both agree and disagree. Trump certainly has a floor, as does Biden. And Trump's floor is higher than Biden's floor, for what should be obvious reasons.

But since 2015, I have never seen a poll where Trump polled above 50%. That means Trump depends on his opponent having high negative numbers, which is why the Democrats are being stupid.

I don't like the possible Democrat replacements for Biden, but there are several which would have much lower negatives, and even if they poll poorly now, might be much stronger by the summer.

Sticking with Biden is the worst move Democrats could make, yet they seem committed to him.

---

as bad as he is, they can't get rid of him without sparking of an intersectional civil war. How can the pass over Mayor Pete without alienating the alphabet people? Do they go with Mayor Gavin to chase the soccer mom vote (but implicitly hold up CA as a model for the rest of the country)? How do they sideline Kamala, despite her even higher unfavorables, without enraging the identitarian mafia?

It's not so much that they can't find someone who wouldn't, at least on paper, appear to run stronger than Joe. It's that there's no pathway to get to that ostensible candidate without alienating important parts of their base. And while it SEEMS like Biden is too unpopular and that others might be better in that regard......there's always the reality of a factor I've mentioned before = its really, really hard to jump from state level politics into a nationwide race. Most candidates do not make it. RDS by any measure seemed to have it all, but he got on the stage and sounded tinny, looked uncomfortable, etc.....his team (I was told by an insider) was ostensibly top notch, but seemed to let him down repeatedly. As a result, he has missed the leap by a wide margin. Just because Newsom seems like an obvious choice, does not mean he will be able to perform or will have the kind of appeal that "experts" might calculate on the front end of the process. He could very well be RDS 2.0 and end up no better, or even worse, than Biden.

So the safest thing to do for Dems probably is to run with the one you have, warts & all. You know what the problems are. You know what you have to work on, and what you have to focus on. Better the devil you know.... I've made that exact same observation about Trump, numerous times, to widespread opprobrium. But it is a prudent calculation and one that 2/3 of GOP voters appear to be making. Better the devil you know...better to run with the coalition you have and fix the leaks & dents rather than trot out something new that might get rattled apart when the road gets rough.

Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Mothra said:

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Jack Bauer said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Whoa. Trump just attacked Israel and said that he'll "never forget" that they didn't participate in the Soleimani operation. He said Israel "let us down" and needs to "straighten it out" and called them weak, saying they should "strengthen themselves up." pic.twitter.com/pMrWLt8ojz

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) October 12, 2023

---

Trump at his finest.

Largest casualty of Jews in one day since the Holocaust

Trump - how can I make this about me.

---

Both petty and tone deaf, as usual. And praising our enemies, as usual.

He's making it more difficult by the day for me to vote for him if he's the nom.

It shocks me that the polls have turned in his favor. Just have to wonder if there are some shenanigans going on. How is this guy up on everyone?

---

This very well could be Trump's "What difference at this point does it make?" moment.

---

I hope so. Problem is, there's so many Republican contenders, that they weaken the entire field against him.

Trump is going to do what's best for Trump, country be damned.

---

As I noted in the other thread.....nope. Y'all are pretty badly misreading this.

---

Hoping so is bad at misreading? LOL. Ooook.

I realize Trump is correct, and he could murder someone on the street, and people such as yourself would still support him and never criticize him for it. Instead, we would get a treatise from you about how the media is silly for attacking Trump for murder, and claim the individual probably deserved it.

I have no illusions this will move the needle at all. Trump will be the nominee, and lose the general (with or without my support) - just like last time.

---

It will not move the needle because your bias causes you to misread the issue and make an exceedingly silly point. Noting the that one's adversaries are strong, cunning, wise, etc....is not endorsing one's adversaries. It shows one is cautious, wise, and prepared.....the kind of leader that guides his country thru 4 years of peace (no new wars: resolutions of old ones).

I just saw a poll from Israel; 80% think their government was totally unprepared for the attack, an indictment on the current government. And we have confirmed reporting that Egypt warned Israel that an attack was coming.* That's probably why Bibi reached out to the opposition and formed a War Cabinet. That is partly a statement of unity to enemies; partly a political move to give time to win back public support by mounting a very strong, successful counter-attack. Maintaining political support to govern is always an issue in a democracy, and never moreso than in War. He would not have done the war cabinet if he had a strong position from which to govern.

Israel got caught with its pants down.
BOTH Israeli and US public officials made sophomorically unwise statements about Hizballah..
The Israeli-Hamas war comes in a context of growing American weariness with expensive proxy wars.
Trump's statements will not hurt him, because they are correct, and because they highlight his demonstrated skill in foreign affairs which is sorely lacking in the administration of his opponent.

*It's pretty easy to backfill the reasons why Israel did not give enough weight to the Egypt warning, but that is for another post.
Hate negatively affects analysis. You gotta learn to set it aside.

---

Gotcha. It's MY bias that is causing me to "totally misread" what Trump has said, despite your complete inability to say anything critical of Trump. LOL. Such irony.

Look, I know you love to try and turn Trump's chicken **** into chicken salad, which I fully acknowledge is a tall order, but let's pretend for a moment that after 9/11, an allied country's leadership came out and said, "America was totally unprepared for 9/11, and its leadership did a terrible job of protecting the country. Osama bin Laden is a very smart, bright guy." Think that is something that would have gone over well as thousands of Americans' blood were on bin Laden's hands? Think that might, MIGHT, be just a smidge tone deaf after thousands of Americans were slaughtered by bin Laden? And when such criticisms, lobbied at our allies, are the result of petty personal grievances, such as for instance the Israeli govt. being too quick to state the obvious - that Biden won the 2020 election - you think maybe that "criticism" lacks just a smidge of common human decency, even if the critiques are ultimately accurate? Think the timing of such scathing critiques, combined with praise of the enemy responsible for innocents' deaths, may be even a little bit ill-timed?

These questions are somewhat rhetorical, as I think any reasonable and decent human being knows the answers. I know you will never be critical of Trump, given your overriding goal to see him get elected, which in your mind trumps everything else (no pun intended), but we both know that his comments were disgusting, petty, and in poor taste, at a very minimum. Disdain for someone's behavior and comments does not occur in a vacuum, whiterock.

Yes, I realize Trump has a pretty rock solid floor given the fact people like yourself would vote for him no matter that he did, but he needs more than just his sycophants to win the election, as 2020 proved. Comments like these, aside from being despicable, do nothing but hurt Trump's chances, which is why he is going to lose - again - when he's the nominee. And I would respectfully submit you might want to check your own bias regarding Trump before accusing others of bias.

---

Pretty funny that you keep calling me a MAGA-head solely for pointing out the holes in your analysis. If Trump is still in a commanding position in the polls, I'll vote for him in the primary for the sake of unity - to drive up his numbers and make it harder for dissidents to get oxygen. We will need unity. If his numbers crater due to legal issues (not likely, but possible), I'll vote for one of the three closest to him, each of whom I like (for different reasons).

You're the one spinning the "smart" comments. Not me. They've made headlines, but had no real impact on anything. They make the attacker feel good, but in fact that particular attack is really, really silly. And the swipe at the Israeli deputy minister? well, that will do no harm either. He's not POTUS, so it will have no meaning in statecraft, but it does speak to the concerns of growing number of Americans. So as hard as it is for a die-hard Israel supporter like me to hear, it is good politics, particularly so for a primary.

You are wasting your breath on both things. They will have no impact on him whatsoever.

---

What holes do you believe you've pointed out? You've not responded with a retort of anything I've said, other than believing that Trump's numbers outside of MAGA and sycophants such as yourself could be hurt, though you've wholly failed to provide a shred of evidence in support of this conclusion. To say you've poked holes in any analysis is a very charitable description of your baseless conclusions.

Of course you will vote for him in the primary. Is water wet?

Trump's comments were disgraceful and ill-timed. You know that, whether you are willing to admit it or not (we know you won't given your propensity for defending his bull****).

And what about my offer? Too afraid your boy might not pull it out to put your money where your mouth is?

---

LOL a year ago I made some predictions about the POTUS race, to include contingencies to watch, likely candidates, front-runners, and factors which could contribute to the rise and fall of alternatives. As of today, those predictions look like Nostra-frickin'-damus. Spot. On. Same for ebbs & flows of polling numbers. Trump has pulled slightly ahead as Biden has weakened. That trend should continue. Yes, I missed the mid-terms by a couple of Senate seats and the house by 20 or so. But so did everyone else - the yardsticks that had worked the previous cycle missed it. Dems pulled the proverbial rabbit out of the hat thanks to the Dobbs case. That's the way things go. Templates work until they don't.

Where will we go from here?
1) +90%Trump and Biden will be the nominees. Only thing that could knock Trump off is a conviction in court, and frankly, I'm not sure even that would do it. Biden? If he's breathing, he's on the ticket.
2) Trump's polling advantage should continue. He has a cast-iron floor of 42-43, and Biden's will prove very soft, probably in the 20's. I'm not sure Trump could get to 50, but with at least 2 third party candidates in the race, it won't matter.
3) Lawsuits are likely not to matter much, because most of them are unlikely to resolve before the election. Some of them will go away. And, frankly, in this environment? I'm not sure a conviction wouldn't help him.

One constant, though, those who do not like Trump will be agitated as his every visage. There is nothing he can say or do which will not be spun into a negative take, no matter how on-point he is. The comments we are quibbling about here are a great example. He is saying what everyone knows to be true but is unwilling to say - Biden Admin is so bad in foreign policy they are inciting crises; Israelis were caught with their pants down, despite prior warning. America is always picking up the pieces that dummies let hit the floor. Nothing aspirational about the way he makes his points, but he does have to make them to win the election, no matter how hard they are upon the ears.

And these comments are going to have no effect on his polling, primary or general. So why on earth do you keep grinding on them? Slaking one's own anger is what Trump does, right?

FLBear5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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One thing I noticed, that no one else has mentioned so far that I see, is how Trump's General Election polling is always in the mid-40s. That tells me that Trump's national support is about the same as it was in 2016 and 2020, the reason he is leading Biden is because very few voters want Biden to run in 2024.

For all their reputation as political geniuses, the nerfs at the DNC seem to be just as stupid this time as the ones at the RNC. The Democrats have done a piss poor job selling anyone but Ice Cream Joe as their flag-pooper for next year, and it may soon be too late to run anyone else.

If that happens, expect a lot of voter disillusion and the election may well come down to who does a better GOTFV job.

---

You describe accurately the dynamic that I've been pointing to for over a year. Trump has a cast iron floor, a good record in office, and free to campaign as a challenger. Biden, on the other hand, has a very soft floor, a disastrous record in office, and will be the incumbent. As things deteriorate, Biden will sag even further. Poll below is consistent with all that. Both of these men are historically unpoular, leading to very high and likely durable "undecided" and "someone else" responses. Most of those two kinds of voters will either not vote, or will vote for a third party candidate. The election will likely be won by the major party candidate with the highest floor, in an outcome that will look something like 45 Trump, 40 Biden, 15 Others.

That's what I said it looked like a year ago. As we are move forward, events and polling are tracking consistently in that direction. Anything can happen, a big terror attack here, further economic deterioration, major health issue with one of the candidates, plane crash, etc..... but most of those will more likely help Trump than Biden. In 60 days, the field of candidates will be set, and it will likely be a very, very ugly, un-fun race that Trump should have a very good chance of winning.

Just said if Wisconsin had a recent poll it is likely Trump would be leading the RCP in that state, as well.

There it is. He's leading in all the Rust Belt State averages.

Again, never in 2015/2016 or 2019/2020.

Never. https://t.co/GAsyQ0UPhc

— Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit) October 12, 2023

---

So the question is whether we are seeing a floor or a ceiling? He has a loyal following no doubt. But whether that is going to be it with all his negatives or will he get a significant complementary bump from Independents and moderates? You mention his positives, had just as many negatives.

I am really curious to see if you get to gloat or have a mouth open who knew moment?? I suspect the later is coming as the Dems will mobilize and we are talking about numbers no one thought possible.

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Trump will get a few points of the "undecided/other" vote, as will Biden, but a bigger number of them will either go third party or not vote at all. The "not vote at all" dynamic is instructive, as it bumps up the percentages of all the other candidates by lowering lower the number of overall votes. Ex: take the poll above. if 10 of the 19 points of undecideds/others just stays home, Trump's number becomes 46.6, if he doesn't take a single undecided/other vote. Give him 3-4 of those undecideds/others, and he's at 50. (that's for illustrative purposes, to keep the math simple. I doubt that half of undecideds/others decide to stay home. But who knows. we've never had a field of candidates so unpopular across the board - a brash loudmouth, a doddering mouth-breather, and a raspy anti-vaxxer who's a nice guy but also a crackpot on more than a few issues.)

Obama was polling regularly in the low-40's for most of the lead up to the 2012 election...... That's a good one to refer to. How does an unpopular incumbent win election? He has to make the opponent look scary bad. Dems have already done that to Trump. And he's still leading........

whiterock said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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One thing I noticed, that no one else has mentioned so far that I see, is how Trump's General Election polling is always in the mid-40s. That tells me that Trump's national support is about the same as it was in 2016 and 2020, the reason he is leading Biden is because very few voters want Biden to run in 2024.

For all their reputation as political geniuses, the nerfs at the DNC seem to be just as stupid this time as the ones at the RNC. The Democrats have done a piss poor job selling anyone but Ice Cream Joe as their flag-pooper for next year, and it may soon be too late to run anyone else.

If that happens, expect a lot of voter disillusion and the election may well come down to who does a better GOTFV job.

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You describe accurately the dynamic that I've been pointing to for over a year. Trump has a cast iron floor, a good record in office, and free to campaign as a challenger. Biden, on the other hand, has a very soft floor, a disastrous record in office, and will be the incumbent. As things deteriorate, Biden will sag even further. Poll below is consistent with all that. Both of these men are historically unpoular, leading to very high and likely durable "undecided" and "someone else" responses. Most of those two kinds of voters will either not vote, or will vote for a third party candidate. The election will likely be won by the major party candidate with the highest floor, in an outcome that will look something like 45 Trump, 40 Biden, 15 Others.

That's what I said it looked like a year ago. As we are move forward, events and polling are tracking consistently in that direction. Anything can happen, a big terror attack here, further economic deterioration, major health issue with one of the candidates, plane crash, etc..... but most of those will more likely help Trump than Biden. In 60 days, the field of candidates will be set, and it will likely be a very, very ugly, un-fun race that Trump should have a very good chance of winning.

Just said if Wisconsin had a recent poll it is likely Trump would be leading the RCP in that state, as well.

There it is. He's leading in all the Rust Belt State averages.

Again, never in 2015/2016 or 2019/2020.

Never. https://t.co/GAsyQ0UPhc

— Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit) October 12, 2023

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So the question is whether we are seeing a floor or a ceiling? He has a loyal following no doubt. But whether that is going to be it with all his negatives or will he get a significant complementary bump from Independents and moderates? You mention his positives, had just as many negatives.

I am really curious to see if you get to gloat or have a mouth open who knew moment?? I suspect the later is coming as the Dems will mobilize and we are talking about numbers no one thought possible.

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Trump will get a few points of the "undecided/other" vote, as will Biden, but a bigger number of them will either go third party or not vote at all. The "not vote at all" dynamic is instructive, as it bumps up the percentages of all the other candidates by lowering lower the number of overall votes. Ex: take the poll above. if 10 of the 19 points of undecideds/others just stays home, Trump's number becomes 46.6, if he doesn't take a single undecided/other vote. Give him 3-4 of those undecideds/others, and he's at 50. (that's for illustrative purposes, to keep the math simple. I doubt that half of undecideds/others decide to stay home. But who knows. we've never had a field of candidates so unpopular across the board - a brash loudmouth, a doddering mouth-breather, and a raspy anti-vaxxer who's a nice guy but also a crackpot on more than a few issues.)

Obama was polling regularly in the low-40's for most of the lead up to the 2012 election...... That's a good one to refer to. How does an unpopular incumbent win election? He has to make the opponent look scary bad. Dems have already done that to Trump. And he's still leading........

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I will say again. Let's see how primaries play out. Polls are not votes. All this polling is trying to run off opposition. Dems want Trump. We are serving up exactly what they want. Trump is easy to run against in General. Hey, I may be wrong. I was wrong Baylor would win B12 last year and Shapen was a good idea...

J.R. said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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Biden edges out Trump in Fox News poll, loses to DeSantis or Haley

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4251779-biden-trump-desantis-haley-2024-poll-fox/

Been saying this a long time. When it comes to a binary choice between the two, Biden is going to win. Again. Trump has a way of galvanizing the support of Democrats for their nominee, regardless of how much they may not want him to run.

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That one comes with caution statements on outlier and bias.

Outlier: I've only seen one other poll on this question that shows a similar outcome - Haley beating Biden, Desantis not. Trump also beat Biden in that poll, but by a smaller margin than Haley. (which at least partially tracks with the Fox poll).

Bias: In addition to not being in the top tier for accuracy, Fox ownership has a declared bias. It would be very easy to take results for the poll I noted above, fiddle in minor ways with the demographics, and get exactly the outcome Fox reported....

So you have to set that in the "hold pile" and wait for more information to flow in. It may be on the cusp of a new dynamic. Or it may be something closer to spin than not.

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$1k says Trump loses the general, regardless of who the Dems run. As confident as you appear, this should be easy money. Let me know if you're willing to put your money where your mouth is.

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I'll put up another $1K

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I get no joy whatsoever from gambling. I'd rather spend the money on something valuable.

So here's what I'll do: I'll make a $1k donation to whatever candidate clinches the GOP primary. And I'll add another one after the convention. I'd like to do more, but I have some local races that I plan to donate to as well (mostly primary).

If you two aren't willing to match that, you part of the problem, not the solution.

whiterock said:

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J.R. said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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Biden edges out Trump in Fox News poll, loses to DeSantis or Haley

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4251779-biden-trump-desantis-haley-2024-poll-fox/

Been saying this a long time. When it comes to a binary choice between the two, Biden is going to win. Again. Trump has a way of galvanizing the support of Democrats for their nominee, regardless of how much they may not want him to run.

---

That one comes with caution statements on outlier and bias.

Outlier: I've only seen one other poll on this question that shows a similar outcome - Haley beating Biden, Desantis not. Trump also beat Biden in that poll, but by a smaller margin than Haley. (which at least partially tracks with the Fox poll).

Bias: In addition to not being in the top tier for accuracy, Fox ownership has a declared bias. It would be very easy to take results for the poll I noted above, fiddle in minor ways with the demographics, and get exactly the outcome Fox reported....

So you have to set that in the "hold pile" and wait for more information to flow in. It may be on the cusp of a new dynamic. Or it may be something closer to spin than not.

---

$1k says Trump loses the general, regardless of who the Dems run. As confident as you appear, this should be easy money. Let me know if you're willing to put your money where your mouth is.

---

I'll put up another $1K

---

I get no joy whatsoever from gambling. I'd rather spend the money on something valuable.

So here's what I'll do: I'll make a $1k donation to whatever candidate clinches the GOP primary. And I'll add another one after the convention. I'd like to do more, but I have some local races that I plan to donate to as well (mostly primary).

If you two aren't willing to match that, you part of the problem, not the solution.

---

Gonna contribute to Trump's legal defense fund? Sorry, couldn't resist. Too easy.

FLBear5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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J.R. said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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Biden edges out Trump in Fox News poll, loses to DeSantis or Haley

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4251779-biden-trump-desantis-haley-2024-poll-fox/

Been saying this a long time. When it comes to a binary choice between the two, Biden is going to win. Again. Trump has a way of galvanizing the support of Democrats for their nominee, regardless of how much they may not want him to run.

---

That one comes with caution statements on outlier and bias.

Outlier: I've only seen one other poll on this question that shows a similar outcome - Haley beating Biden, Desantis not. Trump also beat Biden in that poll, but by a smaller margin than Haley. (which at least partially tracks with the Fox poll).

Bias: In addition to not being in the top tier for accuracy, Fox ownership has a declared bias. It would be very easy to take results for the poll I noted above, fiddle in minor ways with the demographics, and get exactly the outcome Fox reported....

So you have to set that in the "hold pile" and wait for more information to flow in. It may be on the cusp of a new dynamic. Or it may be something closer to spin than not.

---

$1k says Trump loses the general, regardless of who the Dems run. As confident as you appear, this should be easy money. Let me know if you're willing to put your money where your mouth is.

---

I'll put up another $1K

---

I get no joy whatsoever from gambling. I'd rather spend the money on something valuable.

So here's what I'll do: I'll make a $1k donation to whatever candidate clinches the GOP primary. And I'll add another one after the convention. I'd like to do more, but I have some local races that I plan to donate to as well (mostly primary).

If you two aren't willing to match that, you part of the problem, not the solution.

---

Gonna contribute to Trump's legal defense fund? Sorry, couldn't resist. Too easy.

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Thanks to the Democrats, there is no difference between the two.

More than half of U.S. voters say they’re likely to vote for former President Donald Trump in next year’s election, and most don’t much care who Trump picks as a running mate.

More At Rasmussen Reports:https://t.co/4QW0iQnL2j pic.twitter.com/UlVo6UEReJ

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 14, 2023