Whiskey Pete said:
FLBear5630 said:
Whiskey Pete said:
KaiBear said:
Whiskey Pete said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
4th and Inches said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
look at the magnitude of movement in independents. %A026 points toward Trump.
So interesting that all of these voters are magically starting to like your boy Trump after hating him for years. %A0
Let's see if that holds true on election day. %A0My money says no way, and Biden is going to pull out another one. %A0But I am glad to see you are keeping the faith. %A0I just hope you're not disappointed.
Again.
here's what you're missing: %A0 no, they are not magically starting to like him. %A0most voters don't like politicians, even the likeable ones, very much. %A0unlike the idealists (which include the hyper-partisans), the average person votes for people they don't know and don't like all the time. %A0 %A0yes, likeability matters, particularly when one candidate outclasses the other in that trait. %A0 But that's not the choice this cycle. %A0The choice will be between two historically %A0unlikeable candidates, and that will tend to make the election turn on the issues. %A0The guy with the bigger disadvantage is the incumbent whose policies have screwed the voter. %A0THAT is what the polls are showing.
Democrats pathway to victory looks something like this: %A0 somehow, they have to convince voters that abortion is the most important issue of the day. %A0 They will sure try hard. %A0And they will (again) max out their turnout of single white women. %A0 Not sure that will be enough to swamp everything else, though. %A0 %A0 We know how bad it is for Trump. %A0it can't get much worse. %A0There literally is nothing that could happen to him that would cause his support to evaporate. %A0 His floor is about 44%, and he's flirting with 50, so while I share concerns about him having a low ceiling, there is evidence he does have enough headroom to win. %A0 %A0
Biden, though...that dude is the avatar for "soft floor." %A0He is nowhere near his bottom. %A0
Heard a pundit yesterday talking about Trump's numbers. %A0His theory is that Trump not being on TV much (not participating in the debates, etc.) and off social media (that anyone reads at least) is the reason his numbers are so good. %A0Once he starts appearing on TV more when it's him and Biden, and says crazy and ridiculous things (as he always does), and starts appearing on TV when his criminal trials begin, the good polling numbers, especially among independents, will evaporate. %A0In other words, those outside of the die hard supporters will realize why they voted against the guy the last election cycle, and Biden is going to look a lot better than their crazy old uncle.
I suspect he is right. %A0I don't trust these numbers at all, and think that when voters are faced with Biden v. Trump vs. some hypothetical matchup, Trump is going to remind them why they voted for Biden.
it is a very legitimate and well thought out argument, the problem is the vote three years ago was for a guy who was considered the norm a.k.a. the status quo a.k.a. return to standard. That isn't what we got and people are upset about that. Financially speaking they were better under Trump and people are thinking with their wallets right now. Lots of families are hurting financially.
Combine that with the social media wars That are happening that continually paints Biden in a negative image. The let's go Brandon and FJB and all that stuff that you see has an impact in peoples mind over time.
Don't disagree that Americans were much better off under Trump. %A0I just don't think they vote for the crazy uncle when push comes to shove. %A0Trump is even more a loose cannon than in 2020.
I agree that he is not the same as 16 or 20.
I also believe that Biden will not be viewed the same as he was in 20. And that race, you had a guy that was considered a standard Washington politician who should do a good job. In 2024, it's known that he has done a terrible job and americans are worse off for it. Biden barely won in 2020, it could easily swing the other way in 2024.
Almost beyond the margin of fraud.
You are going to be so disappointed.
Better start practicing the ' election was stolen' mantra.
so will you be surprised or disappointing when he wins?
I would be shocked .
You insist on forgetting that Trumps win in 2016 was a VERY close thing.
He basically pulled into a 5 card draw straight flush.
Now he is under indictment on both state and federal charges.
Plus he is mentally and verbally unstable.
The media will eat him alive and the result will be scared independent voters.
Will not vote for Trump again under any circumstances.
So, who's fault will it be if Biden (or whichever democrat) walks right back into the White House?
The people that voted for Trump in the primary or the Republicans that didn't in the general?
Will be the fault of Republican power brokers who lacked the guts to stop a nominee who was a sure loser in the general election .
Say what you want about Democrats; but they didn't hesitate to sabotage Ol Bernie when he became the primary front runner in 2020.
They knew Bernie could not win the general election despite his intense popularity with his base.
So, you'd rather the RNC act like the DNC and pick and choose which candidates the people are allowed to vote for in a primary?
So, the power brokers should have more say than the people? %A0Okay.
Last I saw there was no Convention, no Nominee, no Primary held. %A0Only Polls, Pundits and MAGAs saying the election is over Trump won jump on the Trump bandwagon or you are a RINO or God-forbid a Democrat.
We are not at Biden vs Trump, why is Trump the only option allowed to be discussed? %A0Traditionally this is the time where you discuss ALL the Candidates. But the Polls say it is over so now it can only be Trump. %A0Hell why have Primaries or even a Convention Trump hit 60% in the Polls race over...
You guys don't smell anything rotten about this?? %A0Fits into a nice little package. %A0But it is on the up and up all the suburban women that hate Trump have now done a 180 and will vote for him?
Dude, you need to stay on topic. You're seriously constipated with TDS and now you're just bloviating. You're lack of comprehension is astounding. Here are the two questions, I'll type real slow so you can hear me:
1) Should the power brokers for each party decided which candidates are allowed to win a primary or should the voters be able to decide which candidate can win a primary
2) If Trump is the Republican nominee and a democrat walks back into the White House after the election, who's fault is it? A) The people who voted for Trump in the primary or B) The people who refused to vote for him in the general?
Ok, to put it slowly for you. It is not that black and white. We are being sold that Trump has won and that there is no need for anyone else to run or be taken seriously. If that is not on topic, I can't help you.
I will spell it out since you seem to be a bit slow. The Power Brokers ARE choosing Trump and using the polls and media to sell it. There is NO WAY Trump wins 60% of the vote and wins a General Election. He is THE most hated person in Politics. Yet, all those people will forget that and vote for him, yeah right.
As for whose fault it is? It is people like you. People that are more interested in a Reality TV show in the White House than an actual adult to Govern. People that got theirs and want to make sure nothing is done to compromise their position, no matter what the consequences. It is the people that will vote for Trump no matter what he does.
Clear enough?
Now, call me names. That seems to be your response to most people who disagree with you.
