FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
Polls don't matter unless they do or at least show what my argument needs them to show because it's all a conspiracy toβ¦.
Polls also influence. And the putting out of a continuous message that the polls show this is over impacts turnout and independent votes. Reporting polling results skews the electorate, which is what they want to happen. Low turn out because it doesn't matter, Trump has it locked up no matter what I do. And the psyop approach that humans want to be on the winning side. You know this if you worked at the CIA. This is how you influence elections!
so who is directing all these different polling companies to spin out all the same numbers, same trends, same margins, etc.....?
Who?
If there is a conspiracy, there are a hierarchy of conspirators. Who are they?
Let's look at the polling institutions. Mostly media and Academic institutions. Both sides WANT Trump to run.
So, the Conservative and Fox's of the world are pushing the Trump has this wrapped up and Haley is AOC in disguise.
The Liberals, including the Academics and the polling companies, that are liberal through and through, want Trump because he has SO MANY negative to go after in a General Election it is ridiculous.
So, there does not have to be a "hierarchy" led by a McChrystal behind it. Both sides want the same thing and the questions are geared to show that. I mean Nicki Haley is being touted as a liberal? Come on.
With your background, I am sure if this were in a different Nation and you were analyzing it would look a bit too good at this point. You wouldn't flag this to look into further? To do a deep dive into what is happening? No matter what Trump does or says the polls keep going up? He just said that the US blood is being tainted by immigrants and that he never read Mein Kempf, but apparently Hitler said the same thing. Response - Crickets...
Geez, dude. Fox is "pushing" Trump? Hardly. Their aversion to him is well noted.
I am looking at this differently, because of my background. It is you who are blinkered, being led by the very establishments you cited. You assume blindly they are trying to help Trump, yet accept literally every falsely framed narrative they offer to destroy him. Vance does a good job blowing that nonsense out of the water.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4368234-vance-slams-poisoning-our-blood-comparisons-between-trump-comments-nazis/
Your mind wrongly presumes we are still in "normal politics" where both sides broadly agree on the purpose of government, and that debate is merely about how to get there. Those days are long past. We are now in "regime politics." Read link over and over until you see it.
https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/americas-cold-civil-war/
We will see where the votes go. If Trump wins big, I will be first to say I was wrong. If Haley wins, you gonna admit you were wrong? Or, will you go stolen election? Derp State and the other conspiracy theories?
Haley has no path to the nomination which does not involve Trump sitting in jail and legally barred from being on the ballot, unless you think ALL the polling units are cooking their work by 20-40 points. She's not even ahead of RDS nationally.
Haley's polling in the general is what you should be more suspect about. Some show she has a slightly better outcome, typically at the margin of error. Most show she is no better, with a few show her trailing Trump v Biden. To understand why there is no real conflict in there requires some basic understanding of the relationship between polling outcomes and election outcomes. Pollsters have to make basic assumptions about what universe to poll based on their best assessment of who is most likely to vote. That is part of the reason why polls tend to get more accurate as election day approaches - pollsters have increasingly better data to assess who is actually going to vote, and for what reasons. For the campaigns, though, they have to decide which universe gives them a best outcome and then they have work hell bent for leather to get that universe to show up.
The proper critique of the polls at this time is obvious: election is 10 months away and it's not clear A) what will be the key issues, or B) what will be the composition of the universe that turns up to vote. We do have reasonable bases to conclude the current and future trends should be positive for Trump and negative for Democrats. To conclude otherwise is wishful thinking.
At link are some polling averages, today, in four key swing states, in up to 14 different polls. Trump is comfortably outside the margin of error. Literally there's only thing that could possibly invert those results = a Trump conviction in one or more of his trials. But even that presumption is suspect, given what we've seen over the past year. How, given that his legal difficulties have been a strong boost to his campaign, could a conviction blow it all up? Could it not be a wash, if not a positive? Prudent answer to that is somewhere between a "maybe" and "probably." Most likely outcome on the trials is....the federal trials matter a lot more but will not occur before the election, and the state trials, where convictions seem inevitable, will not have the desired effect, given that they are A) state level & ergo more critiquable as political corruption B) will be appealed (where the outcomes are likely more favorable to him) and in any event they will C) be fertile political material that has heretofore worked to his advantage.
Or you could look at it this way. By any conventional standard of "normal politics," Trump should not be here....he should not have won in 2016. He should have been run out of office. He should be totally incapable of being where it is right now, not just at the head of the GOP primary field but leading the incumbent in the general. Dude is the antithesis all the old conventional wisdoms of politics, so extraordinarily atypical of successful American politicians on either side of the aisle. He doesn't just not measure up, he shatters the measuring sticks. And it is at the end of that preface that neverTrumpers go off the rails. they never pause to consider WHY the guy is even in the conversation, and that the answers render their criteria moot. And they cannot let go of criteria that 2/3rds of the GOP electorate (and about half the the general electorate) have rejected.
That Trump is leading in all these battleground states, surging with key parts of the Dem coalition, actually winning independents in many of the polls should be all the proof you need about being in "regime politics." The social contract of the post-WWII era has finally died. A new one is rising. And STILL we have neverTrumpers trying to hold on to broken things, so blindly that they cannot see they are literally insisting that someone with a quarter of the support of the front-runner in the primary electorate would be a better choice than the front-runner himself.
