Mark Twain - History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes

The Whig Party was a conservative[13] political party that existed in the United States during the mid-19th century.[13] Alongside the slightly larger Democratic Party, it was one of the two major parties in the United States between the late 1830s and the early 1850s as part of the Second Party System.

muddybrazos said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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I will say this until I can't say it anymore.

Partisanship is the master identity.

Religious attendance doesn't matter once you control for partisanship.

Except for Independents!

They abandoned Trump big time in 2020 vs 2016.

That's probably a big reason he lost. pic.twitter.com/ppnygtKGkg

— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) January 22, 2024

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This is the easy part for Trump. The General, if he can run, will be a different animal. Unfortunately, at this point the only path is to take the least of two evils.

Any chance Haley takes NH and then SC? If that happens, we may have a race. DeSantis leaving hurt Haley.

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NO chance in hell Haley has a shot at SC and I doubt she has much chance in NH.

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Then, there is no shot but Trump. Can't remember the last election I had a good choice. Maybe 1992 Bush and Clinton? Or 1996 Dole vs Clinton? Clinton was a scoundrel, but he was competent.

After that it is a **** show.

Bush Jr - Likeable guy, but Cheney/Rumsfeld ran the Nation
McCain
Romney
Trump - Started strong then went nuts
Obama
Kerry
Hillary
Biden

Geez, depressing

Redbrickbear said:

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I will say this until I can't say it anymore.

Partisanship is the master identity.

Religious attendance doesn't matter once you control for partisanship.

Except for Independents!

They abandoned Trump big time in 2020 vs 2016.

That's probably a big reason he lost. pic.twitter.com/ppnygtKGkg

— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) January 22, 2024

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But did independents "abandon" Trump, really? The guy increased his vote count by more than 12.5%. I would bet to increase support by that much, you'd need more independents to break your way the 2nd time around.

Everyone tries to make this BS argument that Trump lost support in 2020 from 2016 and it's an utter lie. Now, did he lose some support since the 2020 election ended, maybe... probably. By how much? Don't know, it remains to be seen.

FLBear5630 said:

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muddybrazos said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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I will say this until I can't say it anymore.

Partisanship is the master identity.

Religious attendance doesn't matter once you control for partisanship.

Except for Independents!

They abandoned Trump big time in 2020 vs 2016.

That's probably a big reason he lost. pic.twitter.com/ppnygtKGkg

— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) January 22, 2024

---

This is the easy part for Trump. The General, if he can run, will be a different animal. Unfortunately, at this point the only path is to take the least of two evils.

Any chance Haley takes NH and then SC? If that happens, we may have a race. DeSantis leaving hurt Haley.

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NO chance in hell Haley has a shot at SC and I doubt she has much chance in NH.

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Then, there is no shot but Trump. Can't remember the last election I had a good choice. Maybe 1992 Bush and Clinton? Or 1996 Dole vs Clinton? Clinton was a scoundrel, but he was competent.

After that it is a **** show.

Bush Jr - Likeable guy, but Cheney/Rumsfeld ran the Nation
McCain
Romney
Trump - Started strong then went nuts
Obama
Kerry
Hillary
Biden

Geez, depressing

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Yea, those are a lot of meh individuals....some of them out right bad people.

Whiskey Pete said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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I will say this until I can't say it anymore.

Partisanship is the master identity.

Religious attendance doesn't matter once you control for partisanship.

Except for Independents!

They abandoned Trump big time in 2020 vs 2016.

That's probably a big reason he lost. pic.twitter.com/ppnygtKGkg

— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) January 22, 2024

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But did independents "abandon" Trump, really? The guy increased his vote count by more than 12.5%. I would bet to increase support by that much, you'd need more independents to break your way the 2nd time around.

Everyone tries to make this BS argument that Trump lost support in 2020 from 2016 and it's an utter lie. Now, did he lose some support since the 2020 election ended, maybe... probably. By how much? Don't know, it remains to be seen.

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But will he increase it more than Biden? Biden beat him by 7 million and won handily in the Electoral College. Lot of room to make up

FLBear5630 said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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I will say this until I can't say it anymore.

Partisanship is the master identity.

Religious attendance doesn't matter once you control for partisanship.

Except for Independents!

They abandoned Trump big time in 2020 vs 2016.

That's probably a big reason he lost. pic.twitter.com/ppnygtKGkg

— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) January 22, 2024

---

But did independents "abandon" Trump, really? The guy increased his vote count by more than 12.5%. I would bet to increase support by that much, you'd need more independents to break your way the 2nd time around.

Everyone tries to make this BS argument that Trump lost support in 2020 from 2016 and it's an utter lie. Now, did he lose some support since the 2020 election ended, maybe... probably. By how much? Don't know, it remains to be seen.

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But will he increase it more than Biden? Biden beat him by 7 million and won handily in the Electoral College. Lot of room to make up

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That remains to be seen. in 2020, Biden could run against Trump on Covid. In 2024, Biden has to defend his record, a tall order.

With that being said, I don't think Trump wins. The liberals, Democrats and media and with help from the RINOs and establishment Republicans, they'll do anything and everything to keep Trump away from the Oval Office.

If the nominee was DeSantis, he'd just have to contend with the liberal democrats and the media, but at least he wouldn't have to fight the RINOs and establishment too.

While the No Labels candidate is extremely unlikely to win the presidency, the levels of dissatisfaction and disaffection in the electorate have to be at least comparable to the conditions of 1992, when H. Ross Perot won 19 percent of the vote nationally.

While there's no combination of a Republican and a Democrat that will be perfect, you can envision some reasonably well-known combination of officials running on a simple message of, "We're not senile, we're not geriatric, and we're not insane. How about it, America?"
National Review

Whiskey Pete said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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I will say this until I can't say it anymore.

Partisanship is the master identity.

Religious attendance doesn't matter once you control for partisanship.

Except for Independents!

They abandoned Trump big time in 2020 vs 2016.

That's probably a big reason he lost. pic.twitter.com/ppnygtKGkg

— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) January 22, 2024

---

But did independents "abandon" Trump, really? The guy increased his vote count by more than 12.5%. I would bet to increase support by that much, you'd need more independents to break your way the 2nd time around.

Everyone tries to make this BS argument that Trump lost support in 2020 from 2016 and it's an utter lie. Now, did he lose some support since the 2020 election ended, maybe... probably. By how much? Don't know, it remains to be seen.

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But will he increase it more than Biden? Biden beat him by 7 million and won handily in the Electoral College. Lot of room to make up

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That remains to be seen. in 2020, Biden could run against Trump on Covid. In 2024, Biden has to defend his record, a tall order.

With that being said, I don't think Trump wins. The liberals, Democrats and media and with help from the RINOs and establishment Republicans, they'll do anything and everything to keep Trump away from the Oval Office.

If the nominee was DeSantis, he'd just have to contend with the liberal democrats and the media, but at least he wouldn't have to fight the RINOs and establishment too.

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Well, now that we are at this point. I hope you are wrong. We cannot take 4 more years of Biden. I do think Haley would be able to work better with the Dems and Congress, but all indicators are pointing toward what you guys said, Trump as nominee.

As expected, Mothra ignores the data, tosses off another insult and pretends he accomplished something good.

Geez.

whiterock said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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Osodecentx said:

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Thursday morning at 1:00 a.m.:

Quote:

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A PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES MUST HAVE FULL IMMUNITY, WITHOUT WHICH IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR HIM/HER TO PROPERLY FUNCTION. ANY MISTAKE, EVEN IF WELL INTENDED, WOULD BE MET WITH ALMOST CERTAIN INDICTMENT BY THE OPPOSING PARTY AT TERM END. EVEN EVENTS THAT "CROSS THE LINE" MUST FALL UNDER TOTAL IMMUNITY, OR IT WILL BE YEARS OF TRAUMA TRYING TO DETERMINE GOOD FROM BAD. THERE MUST BE CERTAINTY. EXAMPLE: YOU CAN'T STOP POLICE FROM DOING THE JOB OF STRONG & EFFECTIVE CRIME PREVENTION BECAUSE YOU WANT TO GUARD AGAINST THE OCCASIONAL "ROGUE COP" OR "BAD APPLE." SOMETIMES YOU JUST HAVE TO LIVE WITH "GREAT BUT SLIGHTLY IMPERFECT." ALL PRESIDENTS MUST HAVE COMPLETE & TOTAL PRESIDENTIAL IMMUNITY, OR THE AUTHORITY & DECISIVENESS OF A PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BE STRIPPED & GONE FOREVER. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE AN EASY DECISION. GOD BLESS THE SUPREME COURT!
Donald Trump Truth Social 12:59 AM EST 01/18/24

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That's pretty much what I was taught in government class = our founders were wise enough to put in place checks & balances to ensure the justice system was not usurped by political vendettas (as it has been now by Democrats).

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Unless you grew up in Germany in the 1930s, that's pretty much the opposite of what you were taught in government class. Total immunity for wrongdoing isn't what the Founders meant by checks and balances.

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Geez. That's not even very good spin. We USED to teach that immunity from prosecution prevented a President from being hamstrung by constant litigation, freeing his hand to handle affairs of state on behalf of the American people (who elected him), and that the appropriate remedy for malfeasances was impeachment.
The beneficiary to the principle is not the President. It's the People, who do need a Chief Executive that can act on their behalf. If he/she doesn't, well......there's impeachment.

Your views are a menace to the Republicans.

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FIFY

So Trump could assassinate his enemies, no court could touch him, and you think I'm the menace.

Whiskey Pete said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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KaiBear said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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KaiBear said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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KaiBear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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I'm glad you are having fun, Mothra. But you continue to cherry-pick polls, and that won't go where you seem to think.

As for your last line, it would be nice if you started listening, but I won't hold my breath.

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Good grief man; forget this ' poll game '.

Let's cut to the chase.


Do you predict Trump is going to receive enough votes from women, minorites, and independents to overcome his possible convictions on multiple indictments regarding both state and federal charges ?

That Donald Trump can WIN back the White House ?

One word answers.

Mine is ' no '.

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Yep, the Never Trumpers (like yourself) won't check their emotions at the door, apply a little logic and just let Biden waltz right back into the White House.

If you want to blame those voting for Trump in the primary, then you need to blame yourself for not voting for Trump in the general.

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What is it with you and this if you don't love Trump you are pro-Biden??? The two are not related. If on November 1st we are in that position, than it is a decision to make. To say in January not supporting Trump is giving Biden the WH is ridiculous. My dislike of Trump has NOTHING to do with Biden. Biden is the worst President in history. It is not an either/or until November.

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What is it with? Well, genius, my beef is with people who sit on their high horse and try to blame people for voting for Trump in the primary, but refuse to accept any blame for they themselves not voting for Trump in the general.

If you don't want to vote for Trump, then don't, but don't pretend it's only Trump supporters that are too blame and none of it falls on the Never Trumpers.

And I'm a DeSantis guy.

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You openly blame people voting for Biden. Why shouldn't the Trump voters get the same scrutiny? And for all the "uniparty" "swamp" fist pounding, it's odd to see the criticisms being leveled at those that would actually be voting against that cycle.

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Never once did I say the Trump voters wouldn't be to blame. I have said, more than once, that the Never Trumpers will be as much to blame as the Only Trumpers.

I've never said anything about "uniparty"

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Apologies if you didn't say uniparty, but a lot of the Trump lot fling that around.

And make no mistake, Donald Trump, not any voters, are to blame. Bad candidates are bad candidates and he chose to run when he didn't have to.

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Yes, Trump is a brash ******* who has no filter and invites chaos. The guy can't even pick and choose his battles. He gives the democrats and media too much ammunition and frankly his last go 'round was very tiresome to watch. But is sure was a hell of a lot better than the ****show we've had the past 3 years.

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Dummy


If you as a registered Republican have such an opinion of Trump

Just what in the hell makes you think INDEPENDENTS are going to vote for Trump in the numbers required for him to overcome the Dems numerical advantage?

And if it's obvious Trump can't get those independent voters, he is going to lose.


But nominate Trump irregardless ?

That's NOT on MAGA voters . Hell many just love his free comedy routine. They can't understand why the ready of the country is tired of their fat freak.

But party leadership is supposed to LEAD.

And the Republican hierarchy has abandoned that function.

So they are going ( apparently willingly ) to ensure the election of the Dems with all the chaos and hell that will result .

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I'm not a registered Republican, dumb-ass.

Holy ****, you really are about as bright as a broken light bulb. You keep arguing points I'm not even trying to make.

This post of yours shows me that you comprehension skills are along the same lines as Biden. Where the in **** did I say you should nominate Trump? Holy cow, you really are an idiot.

You're not a fool, but a clown and an idiot.

By the way, I though you put me on ignore. Couldn't help yourself, I see.

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And of course dummy you again ignore my point.

Because you realize the answer negates your whole jr high thought process.

If Trump can't win the majority of independent voters he loses the general

Irregardless on how much ' responsibility' you are attempting to put on Republican primary voters.

This reality involving independents has been understood since day one. And yet Republican leadership has still allowed Trumps campaign to progress .

That's on them. Republican power brokers are the ones who are supposed to comprehend the realities of national politics .

Not MAGA voters who can't see beyond their infatuation with the orange haired guy.




FYI ' ignore' eventually times out . And after you addressed a couple of inane posts to me I decided to kill some time on this flight to Fort Lauderdale.

Land in 80 minutes .

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You fail to see my point, or perhaps you're mentally not capable of comprehension, which is more likely.

You continue to try and argue the same crap over and over and over that has zero to do with my original point.

YOU CAN'T ONLY BLAME ONLY TRUMPERS FOR GIVING BIDEN THE WHITE HOUSE AND NOT BLAME NEVER TRUMPERS TOO.

It's not hard to understand, except for you. You're a fool and have **** for brains.

FYI, I've had people on ignore for quite some time and it has never timed out.

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MAGA voters are entirely to blame. Trump is unqualified for the office. By nominating him, they will have left conservatives with no legitimate choice but to stay home.

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MAGA is partly to blame. Never Trumpers are also partly to blame.

No choice but to stay home? Horsesh*t. People still have a choice. They choose to not vote for him.

So, you're 11 years old, your friends come over to get you play football with them. You grap your pink football and they say they are actually going to play with the brown football. You get pissy and tell them that you're not going to play football unless they use your pink football. They said sorry, we're using the brown. So you stay home. Now, whose choice/fault was that you didn't get to play football?

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If you want to play with a hand grenade and call it a football, that's 100% on you.

Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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Osodecentx said:

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Thursday morning at 1:00 a.m.:

Quote:

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A PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES MUST HAVE FULL IMMUNITY, WITHOUT WHICH IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR HIM/HER TO PROPERLY FUNCTION. ANY MISTAKE, EVEN IF WELL INTENDED, WOULD BE MET WITH ALMOST CERTAIN INDICTMENT BY THE OPPOSING PARTY AT TERM END. EVEN EVENTS THAT "CROSS THE LINE" MUST FALL UNDER TOTAL IMMUNITY, OR IT WILL BE YEARS OF TRAUMA TRYING TO DETERMINE GOOD FROM BAD. THERE MUST BE CERTAINTY. EXAMPLE: YOU CAN'T STOP POLICE FROM DOING THE JOB OF STRONG & EFFECTIVE CRIME PREVENTION BECAUSE YOU WANT TO GUARD AGAINST THE OCCASIONAL "ROGUE COP" OR "BAD APPLE." SOMETIMES YOU JUST HAVE TO LIVE WITH "GREAT BUT SLIGHTLY IMPERFECT." ALL PRESIDENTS MUST HAVE COMPLETE & TOTAL PRESIDENTIAL IMMUNITY, OR THE AUTHORITY & DECISIVENESS OF A PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BE STRIPPED & GONE FOREVER. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE AN EASY DECISION. GOD BLESS THE SUPREME COURT!
Donald Trump Truth Social 12:59 AM EST 01/18/24

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That's pretty much what I was taught in government class = our founders were wise enough to put in place checks & balances to ensure the justice system was not usurped by political vendettas (as it has been now by Democrats).

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Unless you grew up in Germany in the 1930s, that's pretty much the opposite of what you were taught in government class. Total immunity for wrongdoing isn't what the Founders meant by checks and balances.

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Geez. That's not even very good spin. We USED to teach that immunity from prosecution prevented a President from being hamstrung by constant litigation, freeing his hand to handle affairs of state on behalf of the American people (who elected him), and that the appropriate remedy for malfeasances was impeachment.
The beneficiary to the principle is not the President. It's the People, who do need a Chief Executive that can act on their behalf. If he/she doesn't, well......there's impeachment.

Your views are a menace to the Republicans.

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FIFY

So Trump could assassinate his enemies, no court could touch him, and you think I'm the menace.

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First rule/law in the military is it is your duty to not follow an unlawful order under prosecution on the UCMJ. If Trump orders the assassination of political opponents and military or Federal Agency personnel carry it out we have bigger problems.

whiterock said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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Osodecentx said:

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Thursday morning at 1:00 a.m.:

Quote:

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A PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES MUST HAVE FULL IMMUNITY, WITHOUT WHICH IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR HIM/HER TO PROPERLY FUNCTION. ANY MISTAKE, EVEN IF WELL INTENDED, WOULD BE MET WITH ALMOST CERTAIN INDICTMENT BY THE OPPOSING PARTY AT TERM END. EVEN EVENTS THAT "CROSS THE LINE" MUST FALL UNDER TOTAL IMMUNITY, OR IT WILL BE YEARS OF TRAUMA TRYING TO DETERMINE GOOD FROM BAD. THERE MUST BE CERTAINTY. EXAMPLE: YOU CAN'T STOP POLICE FROM DOING THE JOB OF STRONG & EFFECTIVE CRIME PREVENTION BECAUSE YOU WANT TO GUARD AGAINST THE OCCASIONAL "ROGUE COP" OR "BAD APPLE." SOMETIMES YOU JUST HAVE TO LIVE WITH "GREAT BUT SLIGHTLY IMPERFECT." ALL PRESIDENTS MUST HAVE COMPLETE & TOTAL PRESIDENTIAL IMMUNITY, OR THE AUTHORITY & DECISIVENESS OF A PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BE STRIPPED & GONE FOREVER. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE AN EASY DECISION. GOD BLESS THE SUPREME COURT!
Donald Trump Truth Social 12:59 AM EST 01/18/24

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That's pretty much what I was taught in government class = our founders were wise enough to put in place checks & balances to ensure the justice system was not usurped by political vendettas (as it has been now by Democrats).

---

Unless you grew up in Germany in the 1930s, that's pretty much the opposite of what you were taught in government class. Total immunity for wrongdoing isn't what the Founders meant by checks and balances.

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Geez. That's not even very good spin. We USED to teach that immunity from prosecution prevented a President from being hamstrung by constant litigation, freeing his hand to handle affairs of state on behalf of the American people (who elected him), and that the appropriate remedy for malfeasances was impeachment.
The beneficiary to the principle is not the President. It's the People, who do need a Chief Executive that can act on their behalf. If he/she doesn't, well......there's impeachment.

Your views are a menace to the Republic.

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Wasn't this the argument made by Clinton in the Paula Jones lawsuit, which the Supreme Court unanimously rejected?

FLBear5630 said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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I will say this until I can't say it anymore.

Partisanship is the master identity.

Religious attendance doesn't matter once you control for partisanship.

Except for Independents!

They abandoned Trump big time in 2020 vs 2016.

That's probably a big reason he lost. pic.twitter.com/ppnygtKGkg

— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) January 22, 2024

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But did independents "abandon" Trump, really? The guy increased his vote count by more than 12.5%. I would bet to increase support by that much, you'd need more independents to break your way the 2nd time around.

Everyone tries to make this BS argument that Trump lost support in 2020 from 2016 and it's an utter lie. Now, did he lose some support since the 2020 election ended, maybe... probably. By how much? Don't know, it remains to be seen.

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But will he increase it more than Biden? Biden beat him by 7 million and won handily in the Electoral College. Lot of room to make up

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the 7 million is a useless stat, why try and use it to make a point. The truth is he won by less than 225k across 7 swing states.

The country population is changing and some states like california will lose electors and others like texas will gain electors due to people mogration. This could have a dramatic effect and why Dems want the illegals to count for census reasons.

4th and Inches said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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I will say this until I can't say it anymore.

Partisanship is the master identity.

Religious attendance doesn't matter once you control for partisanship.

Except for Independents!

They abandoned Trump big time in 2020 vs 2016.

That's probably a big reason he lost. pic.twitter.com/ppnygtKGkg

— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) January 22, 2024

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But did independents "abandon" Trump, really? The guy increased his vote count by more than 12.5%. I would bet to increase support by that much, you'd need more independents to break your way the 2nd time around.

Everyone tries to make this BS argument that Trump lost support in 2020 from 2016 and it's an utter lie. Now, did he lose some support since the 2020 election ended, maybe... probably. By how much? Don't know, it remains to be seen.

---

But will he increase it more than Biden? Biden beat him by 7 million and won handily in the Electoral College. Lot of room to make up

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the 7 million is a useless stat, why try and use it to make a point. The truth is he won by less than 225k across 7 swing states.

The country population is changing and some states like california will lose electors and others like texas will gain electors due to people mogration. This could have a dramatic effect and why Dems want the illegals to count for census reasons.

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. If you are using the swing states, it gets worse as Trump is projected to lose those States.

4th and Inches said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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I will say this until I can't say it anymore.

Partisanship is the master identity.

Religious attendance doesn't matter once you control for partisanship.

Except for Independents!

They abandoned Trump big time in 2020 vs 2016.

That's probably a big reason he lost. pic.twitter.com/ppnygtKGkg

— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) January 22, 2024

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But did independents "abandon" Trump, really? The guy increased his vote count by more than 12.5%. I would bet to increase support by that much, you'd need more independents to break your way the 2nd time around.

Everyone tries to make this BS argument that Trump lost support in 2020 from 2016 and it's an utter lie. Now, did he lose some support since the 2020 election ended, maybe... probably. By how much? Don't know, it remains to be seen.

---

But will he increase it more than Biden? Biden beat him by 7 million and won handily in the Electoral College. Lot of room to make up

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the 7 million is a useless stat, why try and use it to make a point. The truth is he won by less than 225k across 7 swing states.

The country population is changing and some states like california will lose electors and others like texas will gain electors due to people mogration. This could have a dramatic effect and why Dems want the illegals to count for census reasons.

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He lost by 237k in MI and PA alone.

Quote:

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If you want to play with a hand grenade and call it a football, that's 100% on you.

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Show me where I ever said I'd vote for Trump in the primary. I can show you plenty of times I said I wouldn't.

In our focus group of Michigan voters, Thasin tells @margbrennan he "was a champion" for President Biden, but now feels Biden has "disowned" and "disenfranchised" Muslim Americans with his stance on Gaza.

"I was never a single-issue voter...but for me this is a deal-breaker." pic.twitter.com/4cwmuYbNbo

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) January 21, 2024

Oldbear83 said:

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As expected, Mothra ignores the data, tosses off another insult and pretends he accomplished something good.

Geez.

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I realize you believe saying so makes it true. It doesn't, just FYI.

sombear said:

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4th and Inches said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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I will say this until I can't say it anymore.

Partisanship is the master identity.

Religious attendance doesn't matter once you control for partisanship.

Except for Independents!

They abandoned Trump big time in 2020 vs 2016.

That's probably a big reason he lost. pic.twitter.com/ppnygtKGkg

— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) January 22, 2024

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But did independents "abandon" Trump, really? The guy increased his vote count by more than 12.5%. I would bet to increase support by that much, you'd need more independents to break your way the 2nd time around.

Everyone tries to make this BS argument that Trump lost support in 2020 from 2016 and it's an utter lie. Now, did he lose some support since the 2020 election ended, maybe... probably. By how much? Don't know, it remains to be seen.

---

But will he increase it more than Biden? Biden beat him by 7 million and won handily in the Electoral College. Lot of room to make up

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the 7 million is a useless stat, why try and use it to make a point. The truth is he won by less than 225k across 7 swing states.

The country population is changing and some states like california will lose electors and others like texas will gain electors due to people mogration. This could have a dramatic effect and why Dems want the illegals to count for census reasons.

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He lost by 237k in MI and PA alone.

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Actually Biden won by less than 77,000 votes across 4 states (WI, NV, AZ, GA) if those 4 states went Trump, he would've won a second term with 275 EC Votes.

Interesting note: in 2024, if Trump flips those 4 states back to him, he would win with 278 EC Votes. Texas gained two and Arizona gained 1 EC Vote.

Even more interesting, Trump could lose NV in 2024 (the state with his biggest margin loss for him of those four states - 33,596) and still win with 272 EC Votes.

Margin of Trump Loss in 2020:

WI: 20,682
NV: 33,596
AZ: 10,457
GA: 11,779

Margin of Trump win in 2016:
WI: 22,748
AZ: 91,234
GA: 211,141

Trump still lost NV in 2016 by 27,202

Trump vote count change (by percent) from 2016 to 2020:

WI: +14.58%
NV: +30.82%
AZ: +32.68%
GA: +17.84%

More interesting: When comparing vote count in conservative and ruby red Utah, Trump received 67.91% more votes in 2020 than in 2016. Biden, by contrast received 80.34% more votes in 2020 than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.

Biden got 560,202 in Utah in 2020. He eclipsed Obama's vote count in 2008 of 327,670 (Hillary got less votes than Obama with 310,676).

As a matter of fact, Biden ranks number 5 in the most votes in Utah history dating back to 1896, when Utah was added to the Union. The only people to beat Biden's vote count in Utah is George W. Bush (twice), Mitt Romney and Donald Trump. Fun fact: Trump got more votes in Utah in 2020 than Mitt got in 2012.

Yeah, I know... population increases add to vote count totals. Just thought it was fun to look at the number

She said YES.

Mindy, thank you for making me the luckiest man in the world.

“He who finds a wife finds what is good and receives favor from the Lord” - Proverbs 18:22 pic.twitter.com/FhspUVmSkY

— Tim Scott (@votetimscott) January 22, 2024

FLBear5630 said:

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4th and Inches said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Whiskey Pete said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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I will say this until I can't say it anymore.

Partisanship is the master identity.

Religious attendance doesn't matter once you control for partisanship.

Except for Independents!

They abandoned Trump big time in 2020 vs 2016.

That's probably a big reason he lost. pic.twitter.com/ppnygtKGkg

— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) January 22, 2024

---

But did independents "abandon" Trump, really? The guy increased his vote count by more than 12.5%. I would bet to increase support by that much, you'd need more independents to break your way the 2nd time around.

Everyone tries to make this BS argument that Trump lost support in 2020 from 2016 and it's an utter lie. Now, did he lose some support since the 2020 election ended, maybe... probably. By how much? Don't know, it remains to be seen.

---

But will he increase it more than Biden? Biden beat him by 7 million and won handily in the Electoral College. Lot of room to make up

---

the 7 million is a useless stat, why try and use it to make a point. The truth is he won by less than 225k across 7 swing states.

The country population is changing and some states like california will lose electors and others like texas will gain electors due to people mogration. This could have a dramatic effect and why Dems want the illegals to count for census reasons.

---

. If you are using the swing states, it gets worse as Trump is projected to lose those States.

---

i am not using anything, just pointing out a piece of data that isnt relevant or necessary towards your stance. In fact, using it makes your rebuttal less effective in a serious politcial debate. That statistic is purely for the feel goods, and the journalists.

and FWIW, I have seen recent polls both ways in the swings. Too early to tell either way. November is a long way away.

sombear said:

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4th and Inches said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Whiskey Pete said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

I will say this until I can't say it anymore.

Partisanship is the master identity.

Religious attendance doesn't matter once you control for partisanship.

Except for Independents!

They abandoned Trump big time in 2020 vs 2016.

That's probably a big reason he lost. pic.twitter.com/ppnygtKGkg

— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) January 22, 2024

---

But did independents "abandon" Trump, really? The guy increased his vote count by more than 12.5%. I would bet to increase support by that much, you'd need more independents to break your way the 2nd time around.

Everyone tries to make this BS argument that Trump lost support in 2020 from 2016 and it's an utter lie. Now, did he lose some support since the 2020 election ended, maybe... probably. By how much? Don't know, it remains to be seen.

---

But will he increase it more than Biden? Biden beat him by 7 million and won handily in the Electoral College. Lot of room to make up

---

the 7 million is a useless stat, why try and use it to make a point. The truth is he won by less than 225k across 7 swing states.

The country population is changing and some states like california will lose electors and others like texas will gain electors due to people mogration. This could have a dramatic effect and why Dems want the illegals to count for census reasons.

---

He lost by 237k in MI and PA alone.

---

been 3 years, forgot the amount.

He didnt need all of them to win so it was closer than what i said

boognish_bear said:

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In our focus group of Michigan voters, Thasin tells @margbrennan he "was a champion" for President Biden, but now feels Biden has "disowned" and "disenfranchised" Muslim Americans with his stance on Gaza.

"I was never a single-issue voter...but for me this is a deal-breaker." pic.twitter.com/4cwmuYbNbo

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) January 21, 2024

---

they will oppose Biden or sit home if the vote were today. Its a big deal if not resolved before november.

Whiskey Pete said:

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Quote:

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If you want to play with a hand grenade and call it a football, that's 100% on you.

---

Show me where I ever said I'd vote for Trump in the primary. I can show you plenty of times I said I wouldn't.

---

Never said you did. I thought your analogy applied to the general.

Nikki Haley embodies the bankruptcy of the spoils system we’ve put in place in this multicultural society. She changed her name and religion, and speaks with a southern accent, to fit in. But she employs her ethnic heritage strategically when it suits her. Wants it both ways.

— FischerKing (@FischerKing64) January 22, 2024

https://t.co/PhiaRB746X pic.twitter.com/q2VynA8hCa

— batu (@qtomris) January 22, 2024

4th and Inches said:

---

sombear said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Whiskey Pete said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

I will say this until I can't say it anymore.

Partisanship is the master identity.

Religious attendance doesn't matter once you control for partisanship.

Except for Independents!

They abandoned Trump big time in 2020 vs 2016.

That's probably a big reason he lost. pic.twitter.com/ppnygtKGkg

— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) January 22, 2024

---

But did independents "abandon" Trump, really? The guy increased his vote count by more than 12.5%. I would bet to increase support by that much, you'd need more independents to break your way the 2nd time around.

Everyone tries to make this BS argument that Trump lost support in 2020 from 2016 and it's an utter lie. Now, did he lose some support since the 2020 election ended, maybe... probably. By how much? Don't know, it remains to be seen.

---

But will he increase it more than Biden? Biden beat him by 7 million and won handily in the Electoral College. Lot of room to make up

---

the 7 million is a useless stat, why try and use it to make a point. The truth is he won by less than 225k across 7 swing states.

The country population is changing and some states like california will lose electors and others like texas will gain electors due to people mogration. This could have a dramatic effect and why Dems want the illegals to count for census reasons.

---

He lost by 237k in MI and PA alone.

---

been 3 years, forgot the amount.

He didnt need all of them to win so it was closer than what i said

---

For sure. I was focused on the 7 states you referenced.

sombear said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

sombear said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Whiskey Pete said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

I will say this until I can't say it anymore.

Partisanship is the master identity.

Religious attendance doesn't matter once you control for partisanship.

Except for Independents!

They abandoned Trump big time in 2020 vs 2016.

That's probably a big reason he lost. pic.twitter.com/ppnygtKGkg

— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) January 22, 2024

---

But did independents "abandon" Trump, really? The guy increased his vote count by more than 12.5%. I would bet to increase support by that much, you'd need more independents to break your way the 2nd time around.

Everyone tries to make this BS argument that Trump lost support in 2020 from 2016 and it's an utter lie. Now, did he lose some support since the 2020 election ended, maybe... probably. By how much? Don't know, it remains to be seen.

---

But will he increase it more than Biden? Biden beat him by 7 million and won handily in the Electoral College. Lot of room to make up

---

the 7 million is a useless stat, why try and use it to make a point. The truth is he won by less than 225k across 7 swing states.

The country population is changing and some states like california will lose electors and others like texas will gain electors due to people mogration. This could have a dramatic effect and why Dems want the illegals to count for census reasons.

---

He lost by 237k in MI and PA alone.

---

been 3 years, forgot the amount.

He didnt need all of them to win so it was closer than what i said

---

For sure. I was focused on the 7 states you referenced.

---

Mothra said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

As expected, Mothra ignores the data, tosses off another insult and pretends he accomplished something good.

Geez.

---

I realize you believe saying so makes it true. It doesn't, just FYI.

---

Let's check those receipts, then:

Mothra, January 11, 1038 AM (page 72)
"Too many of the bumpkins think only Trump can save the country. There is a cult of personality surrounding him by a less educated segment of the party.

Insults Trump supporters


Mothra, January 12, 849 AM (page 72)
"Trump executed well? LOL. Come on now. We all know Trump could have killed a family of four and he'd still be the nominee."

Insults the GOP base again


Mothra, January 12, 850 AM (page 72)
"Of course he does. His sycophants could never be accused of thinking rationally." (replying to Kaibear)
Insults Trump voters, no substance


Mothra, January 13, 1239 PM (page 74)
"I've never said anything of the sort. As I said, the guy could kill a family' of four and people such as yourself would still support him."

Direct insult


Mothra, January 16, 925 AM (page 75)
"In other words, the dumb people vote for Trump. There's a shocker." (replying to poll posted by boognish bear)

Insults Trump voters


Mothra, January 17, 700 AM (page 77)
"My thought when reading this was, I suspect that's how those who supported Hitler felt." (replying to Sam Lowry)

Insults Trump supporters


Mothra, January 18, 1118 PM (page 78)

Lol. Classic Oldbear - putting his fingers in his ears and screaming really loudly. You're a hoot."

Direct unprovoked insult


Mothra, January 20, 117 PM (page 79)
"I invite you to post evidence in support of your position, but as we all know you have difficulty backing up your bull**** and would just rather yell at the clouds."

Direct and unprovoked insult


Mothra, January 20, 140 PM (page 79)
"You might be the least self aware poster on these boards. You regularly personally attack others and most of your posts are conclusory in nature - with little to no evidence to support same. This thread is a perfect example. You attacked me personally when I posted a number of polls that disagreed with your assumptions, and then when you were invited to cite some evidence to support your positions you failed and refused to do so. You're the proverbial old man who yells at the clouds on these boards. It's rare when you make a cogent argument."


Multiple direct insults, plus false accusation


Mothra, January 21, 1043 AM (page 80)
" It was a ridiculous and false attack of course - not that that matters to the Trumpsters. I had at least two, not so bright, Trump supporters who told me that very thing. There's no reasoning with them. If Trump says it, it's essentially God saying it in their minds."

Another insult against the current base of the GOP according to the polls



Mothra, January 21, 308 PM (page 80)
"The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite."

This is both a lie and an insult against the Trump supporters


Mothra, January 11, 1038 AM (page 72)
"Too many of the bumpkins think only Trump can save the country. There is a cult of personality surrounding him by a less educated segment of the party.

Insults Trump supporters


Mothra, January 12, 849 AM (page 72)
"Trump executed well? LOL. Come on now. We all know Trump could have killed a family of four and he'd still be the nominee."

Insults the GOP base again


Mothra, January 12, 850 AM (page 72)
"Of course he does. His sycophants could never be accused of thinking rationally." (replying to Kaibear)
Insults Trump voters, no substance


Mothra, January 13, 1239 PM (page 74)
"I've never said anything of the sort. As I said, the guy could kill a family' of four and people such as yourself would still support him."

Direct insult


Mothra, January 16, 925 AM (page 75)
"In other words, the dumb people vote for Trump. There's a shocker." (replying to poll posted by boognish bear)

Insults Trump voters


Mothra, January 17, 700 AM (page 77)
"My thought when reading this was, I suspect that's how those who supported Hitler felt." (replying to Sam Lowry)

Insults Trump supporters


Mothra, January 18, 1118 PM (page 78)

Lol. Classic Oldbear - putting his fingers in his ears and screaming really loudly. You're a hoot."

Direct unprovoked insult


Mothra, January 20, 117 PM (page 79)
"I invite you to post evidence in support of your position, but as we all know you have difficulty backing up your bull**** and would just rather yell at the clouds."

Direct and unprovoked insult


Mothra, January 20, 140 PM (page 79)
"You might be the least self aware poster on these boards. You regularly personally attack others and most of your posts are conclusory in nature - with little to no evidence to support same. This thread is a perfect example. You attacked me personally when I posted a number of polls that disagreed with your assumptions, and then when you were invited to cite some evidence to support your positions you failed and refused to do so. You're the proverbial old man who yells at the clouds on these boards. It's rare when you make a cogent argument."

Multiple direct insults, plus false accusation


Mothra, January 21, 1043 AM (page 80)
" It was a ridiculous and false attack of course - not that that matters to the Trumpsters. I had at least two, not so bright, Trump supporters who told me that very thing. There's no reasoning with them. If Trump says it, it's essentially God saying it in their minds."

Another insult against the current base of the GOP according to the polls


Mothra, January 21, 308 PM (page 80)
"The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite."

This is both a lie and an insult against the Trump supporters



You have launched a flood of insults, Mothra, some just broad hate against the millions of people who support Trump, and some just petty insults at people here.

Bottom line, you are a boorish poster and you cannot bear the truth that you are far more offensive and belligerent than anyone else on this board.

Oldbear83 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

As expected, Mothra ignores the data, tosses off another insult and pretends he accomplished something good.

Geez.

---

I realize you believe saying so makes it true. It doesn't, just FYI.

---

Let's check those receipts, then:

Mothra, January 11, 1038 AM (page 72)
"Too many of the bumpkins think only Trump can save the country. There is a cult of personality surrounding him by a less educated segment of the party.

Insults Trump supporters


Mothra, January 12, 849 AM (page 72)
"Trump executed well? LOL. Come on now. We all know Trump could have killed a family of four and he'd still be the nominee."

Insults the GOP base again


Mothra, January 12, 850 AM (page 72)
"Of course he does. His sycophants could never be accused of thinking rationally." (replying to Kaibear)
Insults Trump voters, no substance


Mothra, January 13, 1239 PM (page 74)
"I've never said anything of the sort. As I said, the guy could kill a family' of four and people such as yourself would still support him."

Direct insult


Mothra, January 16, 925 AM (page 75)
"In other words, the dumb people vote for Trump. There's a shocker." (replying to poll posted by boognish bear)

Insults Trump voters


Mothra, January 17, 700 AM (page 77)
"My thought when reading this was, I suspect that's how those who supported Hitler felt." (replying to Sam Lowry)

Insults Trump supporters


Mothra, January 18, 1118 PM (page 78)

Lol. Classic Oldbear - putting his fingers in his ears and screaming really loudly. You're a hoot."

Direct unprovoked insult


Mothra, January 20, 117 PM (page 79)
"I invite you to post evidence in support of your position, but as we all know you have difficulty backing up your bull**** and would just rather yell at the clouds."

Direct and unprovoked insult


Mothra, January 20, 140 PM (page 79)
"You might be the least self aware poster on these boards. You regularly personally attack others and most of your posts are conclusory in nature - with little to no evidence to support same. This thread is a perfect example. You attacked me personally when I posted a number of polls that disagreed with your assumptions, and then when you were invited to cite some evidence to support your positions you failed and refused to do so. You're the proverbial old man who yells at the clouds on these boards. It's rare when you make a cogent argument."


Multiple direct insults, plus false accusation


Mothra, January 21, 1043 AM (page 80)
" It was a ridiculous and false attack of course - not that that matters to the Trumpsters. I had at least two, not so bright, Trump supporters who told me that very thing. There's no reasoning with them. If Trump says it, it's essentially God saying it in their minds."

Another insult against the current base of the GOP according to the polls



Mothra, January 21, 308 PM (page 80)
"The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite."

This is both a lie and an insult against the Trump supporters


Mothra, January 11, 1038 AM (page 72)
"Too many of the bumpkins think only Trump can save the country. There is a cult of personality surrounding him by a less educated segment of the party.

Insults Trump supporters


Mothra, January 12, 849 AM (page 72)
"Trump executed well? LOL. Come on now. We all know Trump could have killed a family of four and he'd still be the nominee."

Insults the GOP base again


Mothra, January 12, 850 AM (page 72)
"Of course he does. His sycophants could never be accused of thinking rationally." (replying to Kaibear)
Insults Trump voters, no substance


Mothra, January 13, 1239 PM (page 74)
"I've never said anything of the sort. As I said, the guy could kill a family' of four and people such as yourself would still support him."

Direct insult


Mothra, January 16, 925 AM (page 75)
"In other words, the dumb people vote for Trump. There's a shocker." (replying to poll posted by boognish bear)

Insults Trump voters


Mothra, January 17, 700 AM (page 77)
"My thought when reading this was, I suspect that's how those who supported Hitler felt." (replying to Sam Lowry)

Insults Trump supporters


Mothra, January 18, 1118 PM (page 78)

Lol. Classic Oldbear - putting his fingers in his ears and screaming really loudly. You're a hoot."

Direct unprovoked insult


Mothra, January 20, 117 PM (page 79)
"I invite you to post evidence in support of your position, but as we all know you have difficulty backing up your bull**** and would just rather yell at the clouds."

Direct and unprovoked insult


Mothra, January 20, 140 PM (page 79)
"You might be the least self aware poster on these boards. You regularly personally attack others and most of your posts are conclusory in nature - with little to no evidence to support same. This thread is a perfect example. You attacked me personally when I posted a number of polls that disagreed with your assumptions, and then when you were invited to cite some evidence to support your positions you failed and refused to do so. You're the proverbial old man who yells at the clouds on these boards. It's rare when you make a cogent argument."

Multiple direct insults, plus false accusation


Mothra, January 21, 1043 AM (page 80)
" It was a ridiculous and false attack of course - not that that matters to the Trumpsters. I had at least two, not so bright, Trump supporters who told me that very thing. There's no reasoning with them. If Trump says it, it's essentially God saying it in their minds."

Another insult against the current base of the GOP according to the polls


Mothra, January 21, 308 PM (page 80)
"The idea that nobody stands a chance against Biden other than Trump is a bunch of bull**** put out there by the Trumpsters, when the polls show just the opposite."

This is both a lie and an insult against the Trump supporters



You have launched a flood of insults, Mothra, some just broad hate against the millions of people who support Trump, and some just petty insults at people here.

Bottom line, you are a boorish poster and you cannot bear the truth that you are far more offensive and belligerent than anyone else on this board.

---

I am not sure how else to say it - an insult of the GOP base and of Trump supporters is not a personal attack of a poster. That seems elementary, but for some reason it appears to be lost on you.

And I don't count responding in like kind to a petty blowhard such as yourself. Sorry.

Evasion, as expected.

And a potshot insult, as is becoming your signature move, Mothra.

Oldbear83 said:

---

Evasion, as expected.

And a potshot insult, as is becoming your signature move, Mothra.

---

Well, you would know, Clark.

Mothra said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Evasion, as expected.

And a potshot insult, as is becoming your signature move, Mothra.

---

Well, you would know, Clark.

---

Actually no, as my exhaustive review of the last two weeks showed, Mothra.

You can believe it, you can keep claiming it, but the lie that I regularly attack, especially compared to you, just falls apart when inspected.

But you do you.

Trump: Tim Scott is engaged to be married. We never thought this was going to happen. What’s going on? pic.twitter.com/FJxdmdkdkf

— Acyn (@Acyn) January 23, 2024