Oldbear83 said:

---

drahthaar said:

---

I'm telling you guys, Joe isn't going to be the Dem nominee for President this Fall. They are trying to play whack-a-mole political chess against Trump with an internal war going on.

---

Time is not on the Democrats' side if they want to switch out Joe. Most states have laws regarding eligibility declarations. In fact, Biden has a problem already in Ohio because his convention is almost two weeks later than the deadline for the Democrats to declare a nominee and get on the Ohio ballot.

Sure he could get votes via write-in, but that's a half-assed way to go about it and even though no one thinks Biden will win Ohio, it just shows how messed up the whole DNC is right now. For all the talk about how prepped and savvy they are, this year they just are not.

---

An "emergency" would set aside the time issues.

drahthaar said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

drahthaar said:

---

I'm telling you guys, Joe isn't going to be the Dem nominee for President this Fall. They are trying to play whack-a-mole political chess against Trump with an internal war going on.

---

Time is not on the Democrats' side if they want to switch out Joe. Most states have laws regarding eligibility declarations. In fact, Biden has a problem already in Ohio because his convention is almost two weeks later than the deadline for the Democrats to declare a nominee and get on the Ohio ballot.

Sure he could get votes via write-in, but that's a half-assed way to go about it and even though no one thinks Biden will win Ohio, it just shows how messed up the whole DNC is right now. For all the talk about how prepped and savvy they are, this year they just are not.

---

An "emergency" would set aside the time issues.

---

They've used up all the ones they had good to go. Guess we'll have, what, another Democracy Crisis emergency ...

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

Trump still going after Sen. Lindsey Graham R-SC. Graham criticized Trump's statement on abortion: "I respectfully disagree with President Trump's statement that abortion is a state's rights issue" pic.twitter.com/yUMhpRFPF7

— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) April 8, 2024

---

So now Lindsey Graham is a disloyal, loser? If so, why did he endorse him?

---

Lindsey reaps the whirlwind

---

Lindsey showing moderates can be particularly bad at playing team ball.

The position Trump stated on abortion has been my position all along. It's the only sensible, governable position there is: Use the federal system they way it was designed. Allowing states to govern on the most contentious issues (like abortion) where there is no super-majority consensus (and likely never will be) prevents those issue from bogging down the federal system. Instead, it allows 50 state legislatures to tinker with the issue, finding successes and failures that each of the states can use to tweak legislation going forward. (Nothing radical there, just stuff straight from the high school civics class textbook).

the 10th Amendment solution that movement Conservatives talk about on a wide range of issues (where they are being frustrated at the federal level) means letting go of control at the federal level.....

Republicans who don't like Trump's position need to be.....pragmatic. They'll like Biden less than Trump, and in 4 years, there will be another primary election leading to state and national conventions which afford them a process to have a candidate and platform better to their liking. Play team ball. Then come back in 4 years and fight like hell again. Accept the outcome. Get on board. Then in 4-8 years, repeat the process.

---

Another self-inflicted wound by Trump. He just can't help himself. While I actually agree with him on the states rights issue, know your audience, dumbass. Know that there is a very large contingent of your party who finds abortion reprehensible and wants to see it outlawed at the federal level.

As the partisan hack you are, you're going to have to do a whole lot more covering for him over the next few months, I fear. We've hitched our wagon to an unstable and uncontrollable loser.

---

Here is the difference. The Pro-Life group are serious, they believe what they say and will act accordingly. Trump, won't do a thing on abortion, he will say whatever anyone wants to hear. He probably doesn't understand why they are pissed, it's just words...

FLBear5630 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

Trump still going after Sen. Lindsey Graham R-SC. Graham criticized Trump's statement on abortion: "I respectfully disagree with President Trump's statement that abortion is a state's rights issue" pic.twitter.com/yUMhpRFPF7

— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) April 8, 2024

---

So now Lindsey Graham is a disloyal, loser? If so, why did he endorse him?

---

Lindsey reaps the whirlwind

---

Lindsey showing moderates can be particularly bad at playing team ball.

The position Trump stated on abortion has been my position all along. It's the only sensible, governable position there is: Use the federal system they way it was designed. Allowing states to govern on the most contentious issues (like abortion) where there is no super-majority consensus (and likely never will be) prevents those issue from bogging down the federal system. Instead, it allows 50 state legislatures to tinker with the issue, finding successes and failures that each of the states can use to tweak legislation going forward. (Nothing radical there, just stuff straight from the high school civics class textbook).

the 10th Amendment solution that movement Conservatives talk about on a wide range of issues (where they are being frustrated at the federal level) means letting go of control at the federal level.....

Republicans who don't like Trump's position need to be.....pragmatic. They'll like Biden less than Trump, and in 4 years, there will be another primary election leading to state and national conventions which afford them a process to have a candidate and platform better to their liking. Play team ball. Then come back in 4 years and fight like hell again. Accept the outcome. Get on board. Then in 4-8 years, repeat the process.

---

Another self-inflicted wound by Trump. He just can't help himself. While I actually agree with him on the states rights issue, know your audience, dumbass. Know that there is a very large contingent of your party who finds abortion reprehensible and wants to see it outlawed at the federal level.

As the partisan hack you are, you're going to have to do a whole lot more covering for him over the next few months, I fear. We've hitched our wagon to an unstable and uncontrollable loser.

---

Here is the difference. The Pro-Life group are serious, they believe what they say and will act accordingly. Trump, won't do a thing on abortion, he will say whatever anyone wants to hear. He probably doesn't understand why they are pissed, it's just words...

---

But he actually will...he will appoint conservative judges to the Federal Bench (who do you think overturned Roe?) and he will not sign any new executive orders that fund abortion or demand the military pay for them (like Biden is doing now).

So Trump will in fact do good things on abortion because he did that last time as President.

What he won't do is go around demanding we make it a Federal issue or demanding that we pass some kind of national law about it (that can't pass the Congress anyway)

KaiBear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Realitybites said:

---

Objectively speaking, Trump is correct. The Supreme Court has ruled as much in overturning Roe v Wade. The problem is that Big Baby is essentially a DC based GOP fundraising apparatus with a weak ground game outside the beltway. Which is why when the left takes this fight to the states, they are winning.

The pro life movement needs to get better at urban combat in the new world they find themselves in.

---

Yep. Using the 10th amendment to devolve power back to the states doesn't mean the issue goes away. it actually becomes 50x larger.

---

Exactly

On this particular issue Trump is playing it correctly.


And the gay senator from South Carolina is a war loving idiot.

Needs to be replaced asap.

---

Graham is not an idiot...he is just unprincipled and cares only about increasing the stock value of the defense industry.

He would put American troops right in the middle of the Syria civil war or invade Mongolia if it would help out his donors...

Redbrickbear said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

Trump still going after Sen. Lindsey Graham R-SC. Graham criticized Trump's statement on abortion: "I respectfully disagree with President Trump's statement that abortion is a state's rights issue" pic.twitter.com/yUMhpRFPF7

— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) April 8, 2024

---

So now Lindsey Graham is a disloyal, loser? If so, why did he endorse him?

---

Lindsey reaps the whirlwind

---

Lindsey showing moderates can be particularly bad at playing team ball.

The position Trump stated on abortion has been my position all along. It's the only sensible, governable position there is: Use the federal system they way it was designed. Allowing states to govern on the most contentious issues (like abortion) where there is no super-majority consensus (and likely never will be) prevents those issue from bogging down the federal system. Instead, it allows 50 state legislatures to tinker with the issue, finding successes and failures that each of the states can use to tweak legislation going forward. (Nothing radical there, just stuff straight from the high school civics class textbook).

the 10th Amendment solution that movement Conservatives talk about on a wide range of issues (where they are being frustrated at the federal level) means letting go of control at the federal level.....

Republicans who don't like Trump's position need to be.....pragmatic. They'll like Biden less than Trump, and in 4 years, there will be another primary election leading to state and national conventions which afford them a process to have a candidate and platform better to their liking. Play team ball. Then come back in 4 years and fight like hell again. Accept the outcome. Get on board. Then in 4-8 years, repeat the process.

---

Another self-inflicted wound by Trump. He just can't help himself. While I actually agree with him on the states rights issue, know your audience, dumbass. Know that there is a very large contingent of your party who finds abortion reprehensible and wants to see it outlawed at the federal level.

As the partisan hack you are, you're going to have to do a whole lot more covering for him over the next few months, I fear. We've hitched our wagon to an unstable and uncontrollable loser.

---

Here is the difference. The Pro-Life group are serious, they believe what they say and will act accordingly. Trump, won't do a thing on abortion, he will say whatever anyone wants to hear. He probably doesn't understand why they are pissed, it's just words...

---

But he actually will...he will appoint conservative judges to the Federal Bench (who do you think overturned Roe?) and he will not sign any new executive orders that fund abortion or demand the military pay for them (like Biden is doing now).

So Trump will in fact do good things on abortion because he did that last time as President.

What he won't do is go around demanding we make it a Federal issue or demanding that we pass some kind of national law about it (that can't pass the Congress anyway)

---

We agree on this.

Redbrickbear said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

Trump still going after Sen. Lindsey Graham R-SC. Graham criticized Trump's statement on abortion: "I respectfully disagree with President Trump's statement that abortion is a state's rights issue" pic.twitter.com/yUMhpRFPF7

— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) April 8, 2024

---

So now Lindsey Graham is a disloyal, loser? If so, why did he endorse him?

---

Lindsey reaps the whirlwind

---

Lindsey showing moderates can be particularly bad at playing team ball.

The position Trump stated on abortion has been my position all along. It's the only sensible, governable position there is: Use the federal system they way it was designed. Allowing states to govern on the most contentious issues (like abortion) where there is no super-majority consensus (and likely never will be) prevents those issue from bogging down the federal system. Instead, it allows 50 state legislatures to tinker with the issue, finding successes and failures that each of the states can use to tweak legislation going forward. (Nothing radical there, just stuff straight from the high school civics class textbook).

the 10th Amendment solution that movement Conservatives talk about on a wide range of issues (where they are being frustrated at the federal level) means letting go of control at the federal level.....

Republicans who don't like Trump's position need to be.....pragmatic. They'll like Biden less than Trump, and in 4 years, there will be another primary election leading to state and national conventions which afford them a process to have a candidate and platform better to their liking. Play team ball. Then come back in 4 years and fight like hell again. Accept the outcome. Get on board. Then in 4-8 years, repeat the process.

---

Another self-inflicted wound by Trump. He just can't help himself. While I actually agree with him on the states rights issue, know your audience, dumbass. Know that there is a very large contingent of your party who finds abortion reprehensible and wants to see it outlawed at the federal level.

As the partisan hack you are, you're going to have to do a whole lot more covering for him over the next few months, I fear. We've hitched our wagon to an unstable and uncontrollable loser.

---

Here is the difference. The Pro-Life group are serious, they believe what they say and will act accordingly. Trump, won't do a thing on abortion, he will say whatever anyone wants to hear. He probably doesn't understand why they are pissed, it's just words...

---

But he actually will...he will appoint conservative judges to the Federal Bench (who do you think overturned Roe?) and he will not sign any new executive orders that fund abortion or demand the military pay for them (like Biden is doing now).

So Trump will in fact do good things on abortion because he did that last time as President.

What he won't do is go around demanding we make it a Federal issue or demanding that we pass some kind of national law about it (that can't pass the Congress anyway)

---

Agree, so why is Graham so pissed?? As I said, to Trump it is only words. He will do what he wants.

Redbrickbear said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Realitybites said:

---

Objectively speaking, Trump is correct. The Supreme Court has ruled as much in overturning Roe v Wade. The problem is that Big Baby is essentially a DC based GOP fundraising apparatus with a weak ground game outside the beltway. Which is why when the left takes this fight to the states, they are winning.

The pro life movement needs to get better at urban combat in the new world they find themselves in.

---

Yep. Using the 10th amendment to devolve power back to the states doesn't mean the issue goes away. it actually becomes 50x larger.

---

Exactly

On this particular issue Trump is playing it correctly.


And the gay senator from South Carolina is a war loving idiot.

Needs to be replaced asap.

---

Graham is not an idiot...he is just unprincipled and cares only about increasing the stock value of the defense industry.

He would put American troops right in the middle of the Syria civil war or invade Mongolia if it would help out his donors...

---

Well either way …….**** him .

KaiBear said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Realitybites said:

---

Objectively speaking, Trump is correct. The Supreme Court has ruled as much in overturning Roe v Wade. The problem is that Big Baby is essentially a DC based GOP fundraising apparatus with a weak ground game outside the beltway. Which is why when the left takes this fight to the states, they are winning.

The pro life movement needs to get better at urban combat in the new world they find themselves in.

---

Yep. Using the 10th amendment to devolve power back to the states doesn't mean the issue goes away. it actually becomes 50x larger.

---

Exactly

On this particular issue Trump is playing it correctly.


And the gay senator from South Carolina is a war loving idiot.

Needs to be replaced asap.

---

Graham is not an idiot...he is just unprincipled and cares only about increasing the stock value of the defense industry.

He would put American troops right in the middle of the Syria civil war or invade Mongolia if it would help out his donors...

---

Well either way …….**** him .

---

Agree on that!

Oldbear83 said:

---

drahthaar said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

drahthaar said:

---

I'm telling you guys, Joe isn't going to be the Dem nominee for President this Fall. They are trying to play whack-a-mole political chess against Trump with an internal war going on.

---

Time is not on the Democrats' side if they want to switch out Joe. Most states have laws regarding eligibility declarations. In fact, Biden has a problem already in Ohio because his convention is almost two weeks later than the deadline for the Democrats to declare a nominee and get on the Ohio ballot.

Sure he could get votes via write-in, but that's a half-assed way to go about it and even though no one thinks Biden will win Ohio, it just shows how messed up the whole DNC is right now. For all the talk about how prepped and savvy they are, this year they just are not.

---

An "emergency" would set aside the time issues.

---

They've used up all the ones they had good to go. Guess we'll have, what, another Democracy Crisis emergency ...

---

Wouldn't surprise me at all, since Joe's health status is well-recognized if kept under wraps to a degree by media. That would be a reasonable move for the Dems and Joe to step down due to his not "being up to the task of Pres." Save lots of political "face" for the media, a least. The ongoing internal fight will likely lead away from Gavin Newsome/other far left progressive to a more "centrist" draftee. I still say Jamie Dimon is making all sorts of moves in this regard.

FLBear5630 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

Trump still going after Sen. Lindsey Graham R-SC. Graham criticized Trump's statement on abortion: "I respectfully disagree with President Trump's statement that abortion is a state's rights issue" pic.twitter.com/yUMhpRFPF7

— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) April 8, 2024

---

So now Lindsey Graham is a disloyal, loser? If so, why did he endorse him?

---

Lindsey reaps the whirlwind

---

Lindsey showing moderates can be particularly bad at playing team ball.

The position Trump stated on abortion has been my position all along. It's the only sensible, governable position there is: Use the federal system they way it was designed. Allowing states to govern on the most contentious issues (like abortion) where there is no super-majority consensus (and likely never will be) prevents those issue from bogging down the federal system. Instead, it allows 50 state legislatures to tinker with the issue, finding successes and failures that each of the states can use to tweak legislation going forward. (Nothing radical there, just stuff straight from the high school civics class textbook).

the 10th Amendment solution that movement Conservatives talk about on a wide range of issues (where they are being frustrated at the federal level) means letting go of control at the federal level.....

Republicans who don't like Trump's position need to be.....pragmatic. They'll like Biden less than Trump, and in 4 years, there will be another primary election leading to state and national conventions which afford them a process to have a candidate and platform better to their liking. Play team ball. Then come back in 4 years and fight like hell again. Accept the outcome. Get on board. Then in 4-8 years, repeat the process.

---

Another self-inflicted wound by Trump. He just can't help himself. While I actually agree with him on the states rights issue, know your audience, dumbass. Know that there is a very large contingent of your party who finds abortion reprehensible and wants to see it outlawed at the federal level.

As the partisan hack you are, you're going to have to do a whole lot more covering for him over the next few months, I fear. We've hitched our wagon to an unstable and uncontrollable loser.

---

Here is the difference. The Pro-Life group are serious, they believe what they say and will act accordingly. Trump, won't do a thing on abortion, he will say whatever anyone wants to hear. He probably doesn't understand why they are pissed, it's just words...

---

Trump won't do a thing but he will appoint or hire some right wing flunk who is too stringently pro life

Since you are so ardently pro-Death, Waco, I see how that would offend you.

“The advent of the career politician who doesn't go home to grow his own crops, or run his own business - he's in the business of trafficking in the currency of power and making a living at that over the decades...” pic.twitter.com/orKZKg5Cu6

— Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator. (@RudyHavenstein) April 10, 2024

Nicole Wallace, Joe Scarborough and Joy Reid just sharted themselves..

NEW: Trump gets swarmed by Atlanta residents during a visit at a local Chick-fil-A with one woman coming up and giving him a hug.

"I don't care what the media tells you, Mr. Trump. We support you."

Trump went into the fast food joint and ordered 30 milkshakes which he then… pic.twitter.com/0FmKDJvreU

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) April 10, 2024

President Trump makes surprise stop at Chick-fil-A in Atlanta, Georgia:

“Can I have 30 milkshakes and also some chicken?” 🤣
pic.twitter.com/6L70ekc7zK

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) April 10, 2024

BREAKING: Former President Donald Trump says Arizona's near-total abortion ban goes too far, while also defending the overturning of Roe v. Wade. https://t.co/KxBf40Ipua

— The Associated Press (@AP) April 10, 2024

Welp...

"Joe Biden is Now Beating Donald Trump in the Majority of Polls"

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-1888914

Joe Biden is now beating Donald Trump in the majority of recent polls, just seven months before the presidential election.

Last month it was confirmed that the pair will face off against each other in November, with Biden and Trump both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination and teeing up a rematch of the 2020 election.

Since then, analysis has turned to who will come up on top. So far, polls have been fairly evenly split, with commentators suggesting the race is too close to call.

While that remains the case, polls appear to be moving in Biden's favor. The Democratic incumbent is predicted to win the popular vote in eight of the twelve most recent polls added to the RacetotheWH website, which tracks average polling.

In the most recent of these polls, which was done by Reuters and Ipsos, the Democrat is expected to garner 41 percent of the vote share while Trump is predicted to win 37 percent of the vote. Ipsos polled 833 registered voters between April 5 and 9 in this survey.

In another poll of 1,265 registered voters conducted between April 3 and 5 by IBD/TIPP, Biden is predicted to win the popular vote with a 3 percentage point lead, 43 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile a Marquette poll of 674 likely voters, conducted between March 18 and March 28, suggested Biden will get 52 percent of the vote and that Trump will get 48 percent of the vote share.

However, other polls suggest Trump might have more supporters come election day. One poll of 6,236 registered voters by Morning Consult predicted that the Republican will win 44 percent of the vote share compared to Biden's 43 percent.

Another by Emerson College of 1,438 registered voters suggested Trump will take 51 percent of the vote and that Biden would get 49 percent of the vote. This poll was conducted between April 2 and 3.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Biden and Trump by email to comment on this story.

Despite apparent positive polling for Biden, Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek the race was "far too close to call."

He said: "There are any number of polls and determining which ones to give weight is difficult. That said, the greatest priority should not be given to the national polls but the polls that target the specific battleground states that have been most competitive in recent elections and are crucial for the Electoral College.
"These polls do not have a clear consensus. The Wall Street Journal just published a poll that showed Biden down in all but one of the eight battleground states. Other polls show Biden edging ahead in those states."
He continued: "By any measure, the race at this distance from November is far too close to call. And there are so many remaining wild cards. Will voters believe the economy is improving? Will the Israel-Gaza situation be somewhat resolved? Will women vote heavily on abortion rights? How much will voters prioritize immigration? Will Trump be found guilty in one of the many criminal trials against him? Will Biden have an episode that revives attention to his age? On any of these known unknowns, the race could hinge.
"We just can't know the outcome at this great distance in time."

To be clear, former President Donald Trump said he thinks Arizona's law goes too far by banning essentially all abortions even in cases of rape and incest.

Yet that's what Texas has in place and I've never heard him weigh in on it.https://t.co/J297Y3yRyk

— Jeremy Wallace (@JeremySWallace) April 10, 2024

Mothra said:

---

Welp...

"Joe Biden is Now Beating Donald Trump in the Majority of Polls"

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-1888914

Joe Biden is now beating Donald Trump in the majority of recent polls, just seven months before the presidential election.

Last month it was confirmed that the pair will face off against each other in November, with Biden and Trump both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination and teeing up a rematch of the 2020 election.

Since then, analysis has turned to who will come up on top. So far, polls have been fairly evenly split, with commentators suggesting the race is too close to call.

While that remains the case, polls appear to be moving in Biden's favor. The Democratic incumbent is predicted to win the popular vote in eight of the twelve most recent polls added to the RacetotheWH website, which tracks average polling.

In the most recent of these polls, which was done by Reuters and Ipsos, the Democrat is expected to garner 41 percent of the vote share while Trump is predicted to win 37 percent of the vote. Ipsos polled 833 registered voters between April 5 and 9 in this survey.

In another poll of 1,265 registered voters conducted between April 3 and 5 by IBD/TIPP, Biden is predicted to win the popular vote with a 3 percentage point lead, 43 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile a Marquette poll of 674 likely voters, conducted between March 18 and March 28, suggested Biden will get 52 percent of the vote and that Trump will get 48 percent of the vote share.

However, other polls suggest Trump might have more supporters come election day. One poll of 6,236 registered voters by Morning Consult predicted that the Republican will win 44 percent of the vote share compared to Biden's 43 percent.

Another by Emerson College of 1,438 registered voters suggested Trump will take 51 percent of the vote and that Biden would get 49 percent of the vote. This poll was conducted between April 2 and 3.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Biden and Trump by email to comment on this story.

Despite apparent positive polling for Biden, Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek the race was "far too close to call."

He said: "There are any number of polls and determining which ones to give weight is difficult. That said, the greatest priority should not be given to the national polls but the polls that target the specific battleground states that have been most competitive in recent elections and are crucial for the Electoral College.
"These polls do not have a clear consensus. The Wall Street Journal just published a poll that showed Biden down in all but one of the eight battleground states. Other polls show Biden edging ahead in those states."
He continued: "By any measure, the race at this distance from November is far too close to call. And there are so many remaining wild cards. Will voters believe the economy is improving? Will the Israel-Gaza situation be somewhat resolved? Will women vote heavily on abortion rights? How much will voters prioritize immigration? Will Trump be found guilty in one of the many criminal trials against him? Will Biden have an episode that revives attention to his age? On any of these known unknowns, the race could hinge.
"We just can't know the outcome at this great distance in time."

---

This poll doesn't count. It doesn't tell the right story.

Watch the spin... The Trump machine will get them right...

Mothra said:

---

Welp...

"Joe Biden is Now Beating Donald Trump in the Majority of Polls"

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-1888914

Joe Biden is now beating Donald Trump in the majority of recent polls, just seven months before the presidential election.

Last month it was confirmed that the pair will face off against each other in November, with Biden and Trump both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination and teeing up a rematch of the 2020 election.

Since then, analysis has turned to who will come up on top. So far, polls have been fairly evenly split, with commentators suggesting the race is too close to call.

While that remains the case, polls appear to be moving in Biden's favor. The Democratic incumbent is predicted to win the popular vote in eight of the twelve most recent polls added to the RacetotheWH website, which tracks average polling.

In the most recent of these polls, which was done by Reuters and Ipsos, the Democrat is expected to garner 41 percent of the vote share while Trump is predicted to win 37 percent of the vote. Ipsos polled 833 registered voters between April 5 and 9 in this survey.

In another poll of 1,265 registered voters conducted between April 3 and 5 by IBD/TIPP, Biden is predicted to win the popular vote with a 3 percentage point lead, 43 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile a Marquette poll of 674 likely voters, conducted between March 18 and March 28, suggested Biden will get 52 percent of the vote and that Trump will get 48 percent of the vote share.

However, other polls suggest Trump might have more supporters come election day. One poll of 6,236 registered voters by Morning Consult predicted that the Republican will win 44 percent of the vote share compared to Biden's 43 percent.

Another by Emerson College of 1,438 registered voters suggested Trump will take 51 percent of the vote and that Biden would get 49 percent of the vote. This poll was conducted between April 2 and 3.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Biden and Trump by email to comment on this story.

Despite apparent positive polling for Biden, Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek the race was "far too close to call."

He said: "There are any number of polls and determining which ones to give weight is difficult. That said, the greatest priority should not be given to the national polls but the polls that target the specific battleground states that have been most competitive in recent elections and are crucial for the Electoral College.
"These polls do not have a clear consensus. The Wall Street Journal just published a poll that showed Biden down in all but one of the eight battleground states. Other polls show Biden edging ahead in those states."
He continued: "By any measure, the race at this distance from November is far too close to call. And there are so many remaining wild cards. Will voters believe the economy is improving? Will the Israel-Gaza situation be somewhat resolved? Will women vote heavily on abortion rights? How much will voters prioritize immigration? Will Trump be found guilty in one of the many criminal trials against him? Will Biden have an episode that revives attention to his age? On any of these known unknowns, the race could hinge.
"We just can't know the outcome at this great distance in time."

---

You voting for Trump in the general election or sitting this one out?

We know the players, they should be using likely voters, not registered voters in these polls and they should be using all the players not just top 2.. the polls change when you add in RFK and Stein

Reporting anything else is narrative building

We still have 7 months

FLBear5630 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Welp...

"Joe Biden is Now Beating Donald Trump in the Majority of Polls"

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-1888914

Joe Biden is now beating Donald Trump in the majority of recent polls, just seven months before the presidential election.

Last month it was confirmed that the pair will face off against each other in November, with Biden and Trump both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination and teeing up a rematch of the 2020 election.

Since then, analysis has turned to who will come up on top. So far, polls have been fairly evenly split, with commentators suggesting the race is too close to call.

While that remains the case, polls appear to be moving in Biden's favor. The Democratic incumbent is predicted to win the popular vote in eight of the twelve most recent polls added to the RacetotheWH website, which tracks average polling.

In the most recent of these polls, which was done by Reuters and Ipsos, the Democrat is expected to garner 41 percent of the vote share while Trump is predicted to win 37 percent of the vote. Ipsos polled 833 registered voters between April 5 and 9 in this survey.

In another poll of 1,265 registered voters conducted between April 3 and 5 by IBD/TIPP, Biden is predicted to win the popular vote with a 3 percentage point lead, 43 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile a Marquette poll of 674 likely voters, conducted between March 18 and March 28, suggested Biden will get 52 percent of the vote and that Trump will get 48 percent of the vote share.

However, other polls suggest Trump might have more supporters come election day. One poll of 6,236 registered voters by Morning Consult predicted that the Republican will win 44 percent of the vote share compared to Biden's 43 percent.

Another by Emerson College of 1,438 registered voters suggested Trump will take 51 percent of the vote and that Biden would get 49 percent of the vote. This poll was conducted between April 2 and 3.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Biden and Trump by email to comment on this story.

Despite apparent positive polling for Biden, Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek the race was "far too close to call."

He said: "There are any number of polls and determining which ones to give weight is difficult. That said, the greatest priority should not be given to the national polls but the polls that target the specific battleground states that have been most competitive in recent elections and are crucial for the Electoral College.
"These polls do not have a clear consensus. The Wall Street Journal just published a poll that showed Biden down in all but one of the eight battleground states. Other polls show Biden edging ahead in those states."
He continued: "By any measure, the race at this distance from November is far too close to call. And there are so many remaining wild cards. Will voters believe the economy is improving? Will the Israel-Gaza situation be somewhat resolved? Will women vote heavily on abortion rights? How much will voters prioritize immigration? Will Trump be found guilty in one of the many criminal trials against him? Will Biden have an episode that revives attention to his age? On any of these known unknowns, the race could hinge.
"We just can't know the outcome at this great distance in time."

---

This poll doesn't count. It doesn't tell the right story.

Watch the spin... The Trump machine will get them right...

---

Mothra's post is a Biden best case scenario/spin. It would be equally accurate to say that most of the polls also show the two candidates locked in a statistical dead heat nationally, in the low 40-point range (give or take a few points), with a range of 6-12 points undecided (depending on the poll).

Rule of thumb: when an incumbent has support levels significantly below 50-points, the vast majority of the undecided break for the challenger, go third party, or simply do not vote.

Biden is, in most of the polls, running between 38-45% support. That is an incredibly bad place for an incumbent to be, hail-mary territory. And all of that concerns national polling, not swing state polling, where Trump has maintained consistent statistically significant leads (at or outside the margin of error) in all but one state (WI). Now, Obama was in this situation heading into 2012, and he pulled it off. Can Biden do what Obama did? Yes, Obama is helping him (arguably actually running things). But Obama is not going to be ON the ticket, so you can't make the two interchangeable. Biden will be a drag = no chance he will be able to do 100% of what Obama did.

When a GOP candidate is locked in a dead head nationally and is ahead in swing states.....well, that's about as good as a GOP candidate has been able to do in the post-Reagan era. Good rule of thumb for a GOP candidate is, if you're tied nationally, you are likely in about as good a place as you can hope to be. Almost all polls show that's where the race is....tied....statistically speaking.

Whiskey Pete said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Welp...

"Joe Biden is Now Beating Donald Trump in the Majority of Polls"

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-1888914

Joe Biden is now beating Donald Trump in the majority of recent polls, just seven months before the presidential election.

Last month it was confirmed that the pair will face off against each other in November, with Biden and Trump both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination and teeing up a rematch of the 2020 election.

Since then, analysis has turned to who will come up on top. So far, polls have been fairly evenly split, with commentators suggesting the race is too close to call.

While that remains the case, polls appear to be moving in Biden's favor. The Democratic incumbent is predicted to win the popular vote in eight of the twelve most recent polls added to the RacetotheWH website, which tracks average polling.

In the most recent of these polls, which was done by Reuters and Ipsos, the Democrat is expected to garner 41 percent of the vote share while Trump is predicted to win 37 percent of the vote. Ipsos polled 833 registered voters between April 5 and 9 in this survey.

In another poll of 1,265 registered voters conducted between April 3 and 5 by IBD/TIPP, Biden is predicted to win the popular vote with a 3 percentage point lead, 43 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile a Marquette poll of 674 likely voters, conducted between March 18 and March 28, suggested Biden will get 52 percent of the vote and that Trump will get 48 percent of the vote share.

However, other polls suggest Trump might have more supporters come election day. One poll of 6,236 registered voters by Morning Consult predicted that the Republican will win 44 percent of the vote share compared to Biden's 43 percent.

Another by Emerson College of 1,438 registered voters suggested Trump will take 51 percent of the vote and that Biden would get 49 percent of the vote. This poll was conducted between April 2 and 3.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Biden and Trump by email to comment on this story.

Despite apparent positive polling for Biden, Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek the race was "far too close to call."

He said: "There are any number of polls and determining which ones to give weight is difficult. That said, the greatest priority should not be given to the national polls but the polls that target the specific battleground states that have been most competitive in recent elections and are crucial for the Electoral College.
"These polls do not have a clear consensus. The Wall Street Journal just published a poll that showed Biden down in all but one of the eight battleground states. Other polls show Biden edging ahead in those states."
He continued: "By any measure, the race at this distance from November is far too close to call. And there are so many remaining wild cards. Will voters believe the economy is improving? Will the Israel-Gaza situation be somewhat resolved? Will women vote heavily on abortion rights? How much will voters prioritize immigration? Will Trump be found guilty in one of the many criminal trials against him? Will Biden have an episode that revives attention to his age? On any of these known unknowns, the race could hinge.
"We just can't know the outcome at this great distance in time."

---

You voting for Trump in the general election or sitting this one out?

---

We've been over this before, if I recall.

Voting for Trump. He's 100 times better than the alternative.

But it won't make a bit of difference.

4th and Inches said:

---

We know the players, they should be using likely voters, not registered voters in these polls and they should be using all the players not just top 2.. the polls change when you add in RFK and Stein

Reporting anything else is narrative building

We still have 7 months

---

General election polls are worthless and stupid.

My sister always gets excited when another general election poll comes out that shows Trump beating Biden. I have to constantly remind her that we don't have one big general election for president in America.

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Welp...

"Joe Biden is Now Beating Donald Trump in the Majority of Polls"

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-1888914

Joe Biden is now beating Donald Trump in the majority of recent polls, just seven months before the presidential election.

Last month it was confirmed that the pair will face off against each other in November, with Biden and Trump both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination and teeing up a rematch of the 2020 election.

Since then, analysis has turned to who will come up on top. So far, polls have been fairly evenly split, with commentators suggesting the race is too close to call.

While that remains the case, polls appear to be moving in Biden's favor. The Democratic incumbent is predicted to win the popular vote in eight of the twelve most recent polls added to the RacetotheWH website, which tracks average polling.

In the most recent of these polls, which was done by Reuters and Ipsos, the Democrat is expected to garner 41 percent of the vote share while Trump is predicted to win 37 percent of the vote. Ipsos polled 833 registered voters between April 5 and 9 in this survey.

In another poll of 1,265 registered voters conducted between April 3 and 5 by IBD/TIPP, Biden is predicted to win the popular vote with a 3 percentage point lead, 43 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile a Marquette poll of 674 likely voters, conducted between March 18 and March 28, suggested Biden will get 52 percent of the vote and that Trump will get 48 percent of the vote share.

However, other polls suggest Trump might have more supporters come election day. One poll of 6,236 registered voters by Morning Consult predicted that the Republican will win 44 percent of the vote share compared to Biden's 43 percent.

Another by Emerson College of 1,438 registered voters suggested Trump will take 51 percent of the vote and that Biden would get 49 percent of the vote. This poll was conducted between April 2 and 3.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Biden and Trump by email to comment on this story.

Despite apparent positive polling for Biden, Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek the race was "far too close to call."

He said: "There are any number of polls and determining which ones to give weight is difficult. That said, the greatest priority should not be given to the national polls but the polls that target the specific battleground states that have been most competitive in recent elections and are crucial for the Electoral College.
"These polls do not have a clear consensus. The Wall Street Journal just published a poll that showed Biden down in all but one of the eight battleground states. Other polls show Biden edging ahead in those states."
He continued: "By any measure, the race at this distance from November is far too close to call. And there are so many remaining wild cards. Will voters believe the economy is improving? Will the Israel-Gaza situation be somewhat resolved? Will women vote heavily on abortion rights? How much will voters prioritize immigration? Will Trump be found guilty in one of the many criminal trials against him? Will Biden have an episode that revives attention to his age? On any of these known unknowns, the race could hinge.
"We just can't know the outcome at this great distance in time."

---

This poll doesn't count. It doesn't tell the right story.

Watch the spin... The Trump machine will get them right...

---

Mothra's post is a Biden best case scenario/spin. It would be equally accurate to say that most of the polls also show the two candidates locked in a statistical dead heat nationally, in the low 40-point range (give or take a few points), with a range of 6-12 points undecided (depending on the poll).

Rule of thumb: when an incumbent has support levels significantly below 50-points, the vast majority of the undecided break for the challenger, go third party, or simply do not vote.

Biden is, in most of the polls, running between 38-45% support. That is an incredibly bad place for an incumbent to be, hail-mary territory. And all of that concerns national polling, not swing state polling, where Trump has maintained consistent statistically significant leads (at or outside the margin of error) in all but one state (WI). Now, Obama was in this situation heading into 2012, and he pulled it off. Can Biden do what Obama did? Yes, Obama is helping him (arguably actually running things). But Obama is not going to be ON the ticket, so you can't make the two interchangeable. Biden will be a drag = no chance he will be able to do 100% of what Obama did.

When a GOP candidate is locked in a dead head nationally and is ahead in swing states.....well, that's about as good as a GOP candidate has been able to do in the post-Reagan era. Good rule of thumb for a GOP candidate is, if you're tied nationally, you are likely in about as good a place as you can hope to be. Almost all polls show that's where the race is....tied....statistically speaking.

---

Of course it is. Trump is a lock. That is the only message that is acceptable. Not just on this Board, but all over. The Bannon machine is squashing any dissenting opinion.

Just wondering what happens if Trump loses? Must of been stolen? Civil War?

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Welp...

"Joe Biden is Now Beating Donald Trump in the Majority of Polls"

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-1888914

Joe Biden is now beating Donald Trump in the majority of recent polls, just seven months before the presidential election.

Last month it was confirmed that the pair will face off against each other in November, with Biden and Trump both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination and teeing up a rematch of the 2020 election.

Since then, analysis has turned to who will come up on top. So far, polls have been fairly evenly split, with commentators suggesting the race is too close to call.

While that remains the case, polls appear to be moving in Biden's favor. The Democratic incumbent is predicted to win the popular vote in eight of the twelve most recent polls added to the RacetotheWH website, which tracks average polling.

In the most recent of these polls, which was done by Reuters and Ipsos, the Democrat is expected to garner 41 percent of the vote share while Trump is predicted to win 37 percent of the vote. Ipsos polled 833 registered voters between April 5 and 9 in this survey.

In another poll of 1,265 registered voters conducted between April 3 and 5 by IBD/TIPP, Biden is predicted to win the popular vote with a 3 percentage point lead, 43 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile a Marquette poll of 674 likely voters, conducted between March 18 and March 28, suggested Biden will get 52 percent of the vote and that Trump will get 48 percent of the vote share.

However, other polls suggest Trump might have more supporters come election day. One poll of 6,236 registered voters by Morning Consult predicted that the Republican will win 44 percent of the vote share compared to Biden's 43 percent.

Another by Emerson College of 1,438 registered voters suggested Trump will take 51 percent of the vote and that Biden would get 49 percent of the vote. This poll was conducted between April 2 and 3.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Biden and Trump by email to comment on this story.

Despite apparent positive polling for Biden, Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek the race was "far too close to call."

He said: "There are any number of polls and determining which ones to give weight is difficult. That said, the greatest priority should not be given to the national polls but the polls that target the specific battleground states that have been most competitive in recent elections and are crucial for the Electoral College.
"These polls do not have a clear consensus. The Wall Street Journal just published a poll that showed Biden down in all but one of the eight battleground states. Other polls show Biden edging ahead in those states."
He continued: "By any measure, the race at this distance from November is far too close to call. And there are so many remaining wild cards. Will voters believe the economy is improving? Will the Israel-Gaza situation be somewhat resolved? Will women vote heavily on abortion rights? How much will voters prioritize immigration? Will Trump be found guilty in one of the many criminal trials against him? Will Biden have an episode that revives attention to his age? On any of these known unknowns, the race could hinge.
"We just can't know the outcome at this great distance in time."

---

This poll doesn't count. It doesn't tell the right story.

Watch the spin... The Trump machine will get them right...

---

Mothra's post is a Biden best case scenario/spin. It would be equally accurate to say that most of the polls also show the two candidates locked in a statistical dead heat nationally, in the low 40-point range (give or take a few points), with a range of 6-12 points undecided (depending on the poll).

Rule of thumb: when an incumbent has support levels significantly below 50-points, the vast majority of the undecided break for the challenger, go third party, or simply do not vote.

Biden is, in most of the polls, running between 38-45% support. That is an incredibly bad place for an incumbent to be, hail-mary territory. And all of that concerns national polling, not swing state polling, where Trump has maintained consistent statistically significant leads (at or outside the margin of error) in all but one state (WI). Now, Obama was in this situation heading into 2012, and he pulled it off. Can Biden do what Obama did? Yes, Obama is helping him (arguably actually running things). But Obama is not going to be ON the ticket, so you can't make the two interchangeable. Biden will be a drag = no chance he will be able to do 100% of what Obama did.

When a GOP candidate is locked in a dead head nationally and is ahead in swing states.....well, that's about as good as a GOP candidate has been able to do in the post-Reagan era. Good rule of thumb for a GOP candidate is, if you're tied nationally, you are likely in about as good a place as you can hope to be. Almost all polls show that's where the race is....tied....statistically speaking.

---

Of course it is. Trump is a lock. That is the only message that is acceptable. Not just on this Board, but all over. The Bannon machine is squashing any dissenting opinion.

Just wondering what happens if Trump loses? Must of been stolen? Civil War?

---

As far as him losing, I'll have to withhold judgement and not engage in preconceived conclusions. Need to wait until the election before offering in an opinion about the election.

But the real questions is, if Trump wins the election will he be an illegitimate president again because he colluded with some country?

Whiskey Pete said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Welp...

"Joe Biden is Now Beating Donald Trump in the Majority of Polls"

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-1888914

Joe Biden is now beating Donald Trump in the majority of recent polls, just seven months before the presidential election.

Last month it was confirmed that the pair will face off against each other in November, with Biden and Trump both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination and teeing up a rematch of the 2020 election.

Since then, analysis has turned to who will come up on top. So far, polls have been fairly evenly split, with commentators suggesting the race is too close to call.

While that remains the case, polls appear to be moving in Biden's favor. The Democratic incumbent is predicted to win the popular vote in eight of the twelve most recent polls added to the RacetotheWH website, which tracks average polling.

In the most recent of these polls, which was done by Reuters and Ipsos, the Democrat is expected to garner 41 percent of the vote share while Trump is predicted to win 37 percent of the vote. Ipsos polled 833 registered voters between April 5 and 9 in this survey.

In another poll of 1,265 registered voters conducted between April 3 and 5 by IBD/TIPP, Biden is predicted to win the popular vote with a 3 percentage point lead, 43 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile a Marquette poll of 674 likely voters, conducted between March 18 and March 28, suggested Biden will get 52 percent of the vote and that Trump will get 48 percent of the vote share.

However, other polls suggest Trump might have more supporters come election day. One poll of 6,236 registered voters by Morning Consult predicted that the Republican will win 44 percent of the vote share compared to Biden's 43 percent.

Another by Emerson College of 1,438 registered voters suggested Trump will take 51 percent of the vote and that Biden would get 49 percent of the vote. This poll was conducted between April 2 and 3.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Biden and Trump by email to comment on this story.

Despite apparent positive polling for Biden, Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek the race was "far too close to call."

He said: "There are any number of polls and determining which ones to give weight is difficult. That said, the greatest priority should not be given to the national polls but the polls that target the specific battleground states that have been most competitive in recent elections and are crucial for the Electoral College.
"These polls do not have a clear consensus. The Wall Street Journal just published a poll that showed Biden down in all but one of the eight battleground states. Other polls show Biden edging ahead in those states."
He continued: "By any measure, the race at this distance from November is far too close to call. And there are so many remaining wild cards. Will voters believe the economy is improving? Will the Israel-Gaza situation be somewhat resolved? Will women vote heavily on abortion rights? How much will voters prioritize immigration? Will Trump be found guilty in one of the many criminal trials against him? Will Biden have an episode that revives attention to his age? On any of these known unknowns, the race could hinge.
"We just can't know the outcome at this great distance in time."

---

This poll doesn't count. It doesn't tell the right story.

Watch the spin... The Trump machine will get them right...

---

Mothra's post is a Biden best case scenario/spin. It would be equally accurate to say that most of the polls also show the two candidates locked in a statistical dead heat nationally, in the low 40-point range (give or take a few points), with a range of 6-12 points undecided (depending on the poll).

Rule of thumb: when an incumbent has support levels significantly below 50-points, the vast majority of the undecided break for the challenger, go third party, or simply do not vote.

Biden is, in most of the polls, running between 38-45% support. That is an incredibly bad place for an incumbent to be, hail-mary territory. And all of that concerns national polling, not swing state polling, where Trump has maintained consistent statistically significant leads (at or outside the margin of error) in all but one state (WI). Now, Obama was in this situation heading into 2012, and he pulled it off. Can Biden do what Obama did? Yes, Obama is helping him (arguably actually running things). But Obama is not going to be ON the ticket, so you can't make the two interchangeable. Biden will be a drag = no chance he will be able to do 100% of what Obama did.

When a GOP candidate is locked in a dead head nationally and is ahead in swing states.....well, that's about as good as a GOP candidate has been able to do in the post-Reagan era. Good rule of thumb for a GOP candidate is, if you're tied nationally, you are likely in about as good a place as you can hope to be. Almost all polls show that's where the race is....tied....statistically speaking.

---

Of course it is. Trump is a lock. That is the only message that is acceptable. Not just on this Board, but all over. The Bannon machine is squashing any dissenting opinion.

Just wondering what happens if Trump loses? Must of been stolen? Civil War?

---

As far as him losing, I'll have to withhold judgement and not engage in preconceived conclusions. Need to wait until the election before offering in an opinion about the election.

But the real questions is, if Trump wins the election will he be an illegitimate president again because he colluded with some country?

---

I don't know, did he?

FLBear5630 said:

---

Whiskey Pete said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Welp...

"Joe Biden is Now Beating Donald Trump in the Majority of Polls"

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-1888914

Joe Biden is now beating Donald Trump in the majority of recent polls, just seven months before the presidential election.

Last month it was confirmed that the pair will face off against each other in November, with Biden and Trump both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination and teeing up a rematch of the 2020 election.

Since then, analysis has turned to who will come up on top. So far, polls have been fairly evenly split, with commentators suggesting the race is too close to call.

While that remains the case, polls appear to be moving in Biden's favor. The Democratic incumbent is predicted to win the popular vote in eight of the twelve most recent polls added to the RacetotheWH website, which tracks average polling.

In the most recent of these polls, which was done by Reuters and Ipsos, the Democrat is expected to garner 41 percent of the vote share while Trump is predicted to win 37 percent of the vote. Ipsos polled 833 registered voters between April 5 and 9 in this survey.

In another poll of 1,265 registered voters conducted between April 3 and 5 by IBD/TIPP, Biden is predicted to win the popular vote with a 3 percentage point lead, 43 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile a Marquette poll of 674 likely voters, conducted between March 18 and March 28, suggested Biden will get 52 percent of the vote and that Trump will get 48 percent of the vote share.

However, other polls suggest Trump might have more supporters come election day. One poll of 6,236 registered voters by Morning Consult predicted that the Republican will win 44 percent of the vote share compared to Biden's 43 percent.

Another by Emerson College of 1,438 registered voters suggested Trump will take 51 percent of the vote and that Biden would get 49 percent of the vote. This poll was conducted between April 2 and 3.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Biden and Trump by email to comment on this story.

Despite apparent positive polling for Biden, Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek the race was "far too close to call."

He said: "There are any number of polls and determining which ones to give weight is difficult. That said, the greatest priority should not be given to the national polls but the polls that target the specific battleground states that have been most competitive in recent elections and are crucial for the Electoral College.
"These polls do not have a clear consensus. The Wall Street Journal just published a poll that showed Biden down in all but one of the eight battleground states. Other polls show Biden edging ahead in those states."
He continued: "By any measure, the race at this distance from November is far too close to call. And there are so many remaining wild cards. Will voters believe the economy is improving? Will the Israel-Gaza situation be somewhat resolved? Will women vote heavily on abortion rights? How much will voters prioritize immigration? Will Trump be found guilty in one of the many criminal trials against him? Will Biden have an episode that revives attention to his age? On any of these known unknowns, the race could hinge.
"We just can't know the outcome at this great distance in time."

---

This poll doesn't count. It doesn't tell the right story.

Watch the spin... The Trump machine will get them right...

---

Mothra's post is a Biden best case scenario/spin. It would be equally accurate to say that most of the polls also show the two candidates locked in a statistical dead heat nationally, in the low 40-point range (give or take a few points), with a range of 6-12 points undecided (depending on the poll).

Rule of thumb: when an incumbent has support levels significantly below 50-points, the vast majority of the undecided break for the challenger, go third party, or simply do not vote.

Biden is, in most of the polls, running between 38-45% support. That is an incredibly bad place for an incumbent to be, hail-mary territory. And all of that concerns national polling, not swing state polling, where Trump has maintained consistent statistically significant leads (at or outside the margin of error) in all but one state (WI). Now, Obama was in this situation heading into 2012, and he pulled it off. Can Biden do what Obama did? Yes, Obama is helping him (arguably actually running things). But Obama is not going to be ON the ticket, so you can't make the two interchangeable. Biden will be a drag = no chance he will be able to do 100% of what Obama did.

When a GOP candidate is locked in a dead head nationally and is ahead in swing states.....well, that's about as good as a GOP candidate has been able to do in the post-Reagan era. Good rule of thumb for a GOP candidate is, if you're tied nationally, you are likely in about as good a place as you can hope to be. Almost all polls show that's where the race is....tied....statistically speaking.

---

Of course it is. Trump is a lock. That is the only message that is acceptable. Not just on this Board, but all over. The Bannon machine is squashing any dissenting opinion.

Just wondering what happens if Trump loses? Must of been stolen? Civil War?

---

As far as him losing, I'll have to withhold judgement and not engage in preconceived conclusions. Need to wait until the election before offering in an opinion about the election.

But the real questions is, if Trump wins the election will he be an illegitimate president again because he colluded with some country?

---

I don't know, did he?

---

We'll have to see. Kiribati looks like it could be suspect.

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Welp...

"Joe Biden is Now Beating Donald Trump in the Majority of Polls"

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-1888914

Joe Biden is now beating Donald Trump in the majority of recent polls, just seven months before the presidential election.

Last month it was confirmed that the pair will face off against each other in November, with Biden and Trump both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination and teeing up a rematch of the 2020 election.

Since then, analysis has turned to who will come up on top. So far, polls have been fairly evenly split, with commentators suggesting the race is too close to call.

While that remains the case, polls appear to be moving in Biden's favor. The Democratic incumbent is predicted to win the popular vote in eight of the twelve most recent polls added to the RacetotheWH website, which tracks average polling.

In the most recent of these polls, which was done by Reuters and Ipsos, the Democrat is expected to garner 41 percent of the vote share while Trump is predicted to win 37 percent of the vote. Ipsos polled 833 registered voters between April 5 and 9 in this survey.

In another poll of 1,265 registered voters conducted between April 3 and 5 by IBD/TIPP, Biden is predicted to win the popular vote with a 3 percentage point lead, 43 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile a Marquette poll of 674 likely voters, conducted between March 18 and March 28, suggested Biden will get 52 percent of the vote and that Trump will get 48 percent of the vote share.

However, other polls suggest Trump might have more supporters come election day. One poll of 6,236 registered voters by Morning Consult predicted that the Republican will win 44 percent of the vote share compared to Biden's 43 percent.

Another by Emerson College of 1,438 registered voters suggested Trump will take 51 percent of the vote and that Biden would get 49 percent of the vote. This poll was conducted between April 2 and 3.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Biden and Trump by email to comment on this story.

Despite apparent positive polling for Biden, Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek the race was "far too close to call."

He said: "There are any number of polls and determining which ones to give weight is difficult. That said, the greatest priority should not be given to the national polls but the polls that target the specific battleground states that have been most competitive in recent elections and are crucial for the Electoral College.
"These polls do not have a clear consensus. The Wall Street Journal just published a poll that showed Biden down in all but one of the eight battleground states. Other polls show Biden edging ahead in those states."
He continued: "By any measure, the race at this distance from November is far too close to call. And there are so many remaining wild cards. Will voters believe the economy is improving? Will the Israel-Gaza situation be somewhat resolved? Will women vote heavily on abortion rights? How much will voters prioritize immigration? Will Trump be found guilty in one of the many criminal trials against him? Will Biden have an episode that revives attention to his age? On any of these known unknowns, the race could hinge.
"We just can't know the outcome at this great distance in time."

---

This poll doesn't count. It doesn't tell the right story.

Watch the spin... The Trump machine will get them right...

---

Mothra's post is a Biden best case scenario/spin. It would be equally accurate to say that most of the polls also show the two candidates locked in a statistical dead heat nationally, in the low 40-point range (give or take a few points), with a range of 6-12 points undecided (depending on the poll).

Rule of thumb: when an incumbent has support levels significantly below 50-points, the vast majority of the undecided break for the challenger, go third party, or simply do not vote.

Biden is, in most of the polls, running between 38-45% support. That is an incredibly bad place for an incumbent to be, hail-mary territory. And all of that concerns national polling, not swing state polling, where Trump has maintained consistent statistically significant leads (at or outside the margin of error) in all but one state (WI). Now, Obama was in this situation heading into 2012, and he pulled it off. Can Biden do what Obama did? Yes, Obama is helping him (arguably actually running things). But Obama is not going to be ON the ticket, so you can't make the two interchangeable. Biden will be a drag = no chance he will be able to do 100% of what Obama did.

When a GOP candidate is locked in a dead head nationally and is ahead in swing states.....well, that's about as good as a GOP candidate has been able to do in the post-Reagan era. Good rule of thumb for a GOP candidate is, if you're tied nationally, you are likely in about as good a place as you can hope to be. Almost all polls show that's where the race is....tied....statistically speaking.

---

Of course it is. Trump is a lock. That is the only message that is acceptable. Not just on this Board, but all over. The Bannon machine is squashing any dissenting opinion.

Just wondering what happens if Trump loses? Must of been stolen? Civil War?

---

I didn't say that. Just noting the full perspective. By almost every normal yardstick, the fall election should be very difficult for Democrats to win. There's really only one scenario where the outcome is seriously in doubt - the one that says Trump is so toxic that he cannot win, no way, no how, and anyone who says otherwise is a mind-numbed Trumpbot. Except, he's won once before (with far less preparation), he's won the primary, and he's ahead in most Electoral College projections. In no small part it's because he has a far better campaign team than he had in 2016 or 2020.

If Democrats steal another one, things will get more contentious than they were last time.

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Welp...

"Joe Biden is Now Beating Donald Trump in the Majority of Polls"

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-1888914

Joe Biden is now beating Donald Trump in the majority of recent polls, just seven months before the presidential election.

Last month it was confirmed that the pair will face off against each other in November, with Biden and Trump both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination and teeing up a rematch of the 2020 election.

Since then, analysis has turned to who will come up on top. So far, polls have been fairly evenly split, with commentators suggesting the race is too close to call.

While that remains the case, polls appear to be moving in Biden's favor. The Democratic incumbent is predicted to win the popular vote in eight of the twelve most recent polls added to the RacetotheWH website, which tracks average polling.

In the most recent of these polls, which was done by Reuters and Ipsos, the Democrat is expected to garner 41 percent of the vote share while Trump is predicted to win 37 percent of the vote. Ipsos polled 833 registered voters between April 5 and 9 in this survey.

In another poll of 1,265 registered voters conducted between April 3 and 5 by IBD/TIPP, Biden is predicted to win the popular vote with a 3 percentage point lead, 43 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile a Marquette poll of 674 likely voters, conducted between March 18 and March 28, suggested Biden will get 52 percent of the vote and that Trump will get 48 percent of the vote share.

However, other polls suggest Trump might have more supporters come election day. One poll of 6,236 registered voters by Morning Consult predicted that the Republican will win 44 percent of the vote share compared to Biden's 43 percent.

Another by Emerson College of 1,438 registered voters suggested Trump will take 51 percent of the vote and that Biden would get 49 percent of the vote. This poll was conducted between April 2 and 3.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Biden and Trump by email to comment on this story.

Despite apparent positive polling for Biden, Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek the race was "far too close to call."

He said: "There are any number of polls and determining which ones to give weight is difficult. That said, the greatest priority should not be given to the national polls but the polls that target the specific battleground states that have been most competitive in recent elections and are crucial for the Electoral College.
"These polls do not have a clear consensus. The Wall Street Journal just published a poll that showed Biden down in all but one of the eight battleground states. Other polls show Biden edging ahead in those states."
He continued: "By any measure, the race at this distance from November is far too close to call. And there are so many remaining wild cards. Will voters believe the economy is improving? Will the Israel-Gaza situation be somewhat resolved? Will women vote heavily on abortion rights? How much will voters prioritize immigration? Will Trump be found guilty in one of the many criminal trials against him? Will Biden have an episode that revives attention to his age? On any of these known unknowns, the race could hinge.
"We just can't know the outcome at this great distance in time."

---

This poll doesn't count. It doesn't tell the right story.

Watch the spin... The Trump machine will get them right...

---

Mothra's post is a Biden best case scenario/spin. It would be equally accurate to say that most of the polls also show the two candidates locked in a statistical dead heat nationally, in the low 40-point range (give or take a few points), with a range of 6-12 points undecided (depending on the poll).

Rule of thumb: when an incumbent has support levels significantly below 50-points, the vast majority of the undecided break for the challenger, go third party, or simply do not vote.

Biden is, in most of the polls, running between 38-45% support. That is an incredibly bad place for an incumbent to be, hail-mary territory. And all of that concerns national polling, not swing state polling, where Trump has maintained consistent statistically significant leads (at or outside the margin of error) in all but one state (WI). Now, Obama was in this situation heading into 2012, and he pulled it off. Can Biden do what Obama did? Yes, Obama is helping him (arguably actually running things). But Obama is not going to be ON the ticket, so you can't make the two interchangeable. Biden will be a drag = no chance he will be able to do 100% of what Obama did.

When a GOP candidate is locked in a dead head nationally and is ahead in swing states.....well, that's about as good as a GOP candidate has been able to do in the post-Reagan era. Good rule of thumb for a GOP candidate is, if you're tied nationally, you are likely in about as good a place as you can hope to be. Almost all polls show that's where the race is....tied....statistically speaking.

---

Of course it is. Trump is a lock. That is the only message that is acceptable. Not just on this Board, but all over. The Bannon machine is squashing any dissenting opinion.

Just wondering what happens if Trump loses? Must of been stolen? Civil War?

---

I didn't say that. Just noting the full perspective. By almost every normal yardstick, the fall election should be very difficult for Democrats to win. There's really only one scenario where the outcome is seriously in doubt - the one that says Trump is so toxic that he cannot win, no way, no how, and anyone who says otherwise is a mind-numbed Trumpbot. Except, he's won once before (with far less preparation), he's won the primary, and he's ahead in most Electoral College projections. In no small part it's because he has a far better campaign team than he had in 2016 or 2020.

If Democrats steal another one, things will get more contentious than they were last time.

---

And yet we have both 2016 and 2020. Trump should have won 2020 and lost. Clinton should have won 2016 and lost. By every metric, Biden should lose. Yet, elections are funny things. And no I do not prescribe to the stolen election in 2020, too many states and too many votes for it not to show up. You know the analysis capabilities of the US, it would show.

If he really was as toxic as his critics assume, how could this have happened?

“In recent decades, neither party has had a sizable advantage, but the Democratic Party has lost the edge it maintained from 2017 to 2021,” the multipage Pew report said.

“The partisan identification of registered voters is now evenly split between the two major parties: 49% of…

— Randy Mott (@randymot4) April 12, 2024

whiterock said:

---

If he really was as toxic as his critics assume, how could this have happened?

“In recent decades, neither party has had a sizable advantage, but the Democratic Party has lost the edge it maintained from 2017 to 2021,” the multipage Pew report said.

“The partisan identification of registered voters is now evenly split between the two major parties: 49% of…

— Randy Mott (@randymot4) April 12, 2024

---

He was never that toxic with the average American people...especially not the multi-racial working class (Black, Hispanic, White, etc.)

Who he WAS toxic with was the college educated upper class....the PMCs (professional managerial class) as it were.

Those people hated him...they are also the people who tend to dominate our cultural, media, and even governmental institutions....they are also urban, often coastal, and very influential as a group.

And when they hate someone they have the power to amplify that view across all media-tech streams....thus making it look more like a common view than it is.

(ps they have done this with other issues as well)

Redbrickbear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

If he really was as toxic as his critics assume, how could this have happened?

“In recent decades, neither party has had a sizable advantage, but the Democratic Party has lost the edge it maintained from 2017 to 2021,” the multipage Pew report said.

“The partisan identification of registered voters is now evenly split between the two major parties: 49% of…

— Randy Mott (@randymot4) April 12, 2024

---

He was never that toxic with the average American people...especially not the multi-racial working class (Black, Hispanic, White, etc.)

Who he WAS toxic with was the college educated upper class....the PMCs (professional managerial class) as it were.

Those people hated him...they are also the people who tend to dominate our cultural, media, and even governmental institutions....they are also urban, often coastal, and very influential as a group.

And when they hate someone they have the power to amplify that view across all media-tech streams....thus making it look more like a common view than it is.

(ps they have done this with other issues as well)

---

FOX News called "Why did you reveal our scam Redbrick?"

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Welp...

"Joe Biden is Now Beating Donald Trump in the Majority of Polls"

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-1888914

Joe Biden is now beating Donald Trump in the majority of recent polls, just seven months before the presidential election.

Last month it was confirmed that the pair will face off against each other in November, with Biden and Trump both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination and teeing up a rematch of the 2020 election.

Since then, analysis has turned to who will come up on top. So far, polls have been fairly evenly split, with commentators suggesting the race is too close to call.

While that remains the case, polls appear to be moving in Biden's favor. The Democratic incumbent is predicted to win the popular vote in eight of the twelve most recent polls added to the RacetotheWH website, which tracks average polling.

In the most recent of these polls, which was done by Reuters and Ipsos, the Democrat is expected to garner 41 percent of the vote share while Trump is predicted to win 37 percent of the vote. Ipsos polled 833 registered voters between April 5 and 9 in this survey.

In another poll of 1,265 registered voters conducted between April 3 and 5 by IBD/TIPP, Biden is predicted to win the popular vote with a 3 percentage point lead, 43 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile a Marquette poll of 674 likely voters, conducted between March 18 and March 28, suggested Biden will get 52 percent of the vote and that Trump will get 48 percent of the vote share.

However, other polls suggest Trump might have more supporters come election day. One poll of 6,236 registered voters by Morning Consult predicted that the Republican will win 44 percent of the vote share compared to Biden's 43 percent.

Another by Emerson College of 1,438 registered voters suggested Trump will take 51 percent of the vote and that Biden would get 49 percent of the vote. This poll was conducted between April 2 and 3.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Biden and Trump by email to comment on this story.

Despite apparent positive polling for Biden, Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek the race was "far too close to call."

He said: "There are any number of polls and determining which ones to give weight is difficult. That said, the greatest priority should not be given to the national polls but the polls that target the specific battleground states that have been most competitive in recent elections and are crucial for the Electoral College.
"These polls do not have a clear consensus. The Wall Street Journal just published a poll that showed Biden down in all but one of the eight battleground states. Other polls show Biden edging ahead in those states."
He continued: "By any measure, the race at this distance from November is far too close to call. And there are so many remaining wild cards. Will voters believe the economy is improving? Will the Israel-Gaza situation be somewhat resolved? Will women vote heavily on abortion rights? How much will voters prioritize immigration? Will Trump be found guilty in one of the many criminal trials against him? Will Biden have an episode that revives attention to his age? On any of these known unknowns, the race could hinge.
"We just can't know the outcome at this great distance in time."

---

This poll doesn't count. It doesn't tell the right story.

Watch the spin... The Trump machine will get them right...

---

Mothra's post is a Biden best case scenario/spin. It would be equally accurate to say that most of the polls also show the two candidates locked in a statistical dead heat nationally, in the low 40-point range (give or take a few points), with a range of 6-12 points undecided (depending on the poll).

Rule of thumb: when an incumbent has support levels significantly below 50-points, the vast majority of the undecided break for the challenger, go third party, or simply do not vote.

Biden is, in most of the polls, running between 38-45% support. That is an incredibly bad place for an incumbent to be, hail-mary territory. And all of that concerns national polling, not swing state polling, where Trump has maintained consistent statistically significant leads (at or outside the margin of error) in all but one state (WI). Now, Obama was in this situation heading into 2012, and he pulled it off. Can Biden do what Obama did? Yes, Obama is helping him (arguably actually running things). But Obama is not going to be ON the ticket, so you can't make the two interchangeable. Biden will be a drag = no chance he will be able to do 100% of what Obama did.

When a GOP candidate is locked in a dead head nationally and is ahead in swing states.....well, that's about as good as a GOP candidate has been able to do in the post-Reagan era. Good rule of thumb for a GOP candidate is, if you're tied nationally, you are likely in about as good a place as you can hope to be. Almost all polls show that's where the race is....tied....statistically speaking.

---

Of course it is. Trump is a lock. That is the only message that is acceptable. Not just on this Board, but all over. The Bannon machine is squashing any dissenting opinion.

Just wondering what happens if Trump loses? Must of been stolen? Civil War?

---

I didn't say that. Just noting the full perspective. By almost every normal yardstick, the fall election should be very difficult for Democrats to win. There's really only one scenario where the outcome is seriously in doubt - the one that says Trump is so toxic that he cannot win, no way, no how, and anyone who says otherwise is a mind-numbed Trumpbot. Except, he's won once before (with far less preparation), he's won the primary, and he's ahead in most Electoral College projections. In no small part it's because he has a far better campaign team than he had in 2016 or 2020.

If Democrats steal another one, things will get more contentious than they were last time.

---

And yet we have both 2016 and 2020. Trump should have won 2020 and lost. Clinton should have won 2016 and lost. By every metric, Biden should lose. Yet, elections are funny things. And no I do not prescribe to the stolen election in 2020, too many states and too many votes for it not to show up. You know the analysis capabilities of the US, it would show.

---

you badly mis-analyze the fraud issue. A good machine in 5-6 major US cities can easily decide a close election, and did in 2020.
In 2016, Trump overperformed the polling and won.
In 2020, Trump overperformed the polling and would have won had fraud not have been an issue in 3-4 states.

Trump is already ahead in most swing state polling. If hie overperforms the polls again, he will win an electoral landslide. A popular vote win is even possible within the current range of polls, before we even get to over/underperformance questions.

We're also seeing some interesting fundraising trends. A snippet from my Taibbi subscription:

"TOTAL MONETARY DONATIONS FROM THE TRUCKING INDUSTRY FOR EACH MAJOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, 2024 CYCLE as of April 10, OpenSecrets.Org:

• Donald Trump, $291,719
• Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., $36,790
• Joe Biden, $35,877

TOTAL MONETARY DONATIONS FROM "HEDGE FUNDS AND PRIVATE EQUITY" FOR EACH MAJOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, 2024 CYCLE as of April 10, OpenSecrets.Org:

• Donald Trump, $1,134,035
• Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., $75,949
• Joe Biden, $68,871

Now, it's early and these total will change. But when you're performing well with both high finance and truck drivers, you are in a good place.

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Welp...

"Joe Biden is Now Beating Donald Trump in the Majority of Polls"

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-1888914

Joe Biden is now beating Donald Trump in the majority of recent polls, just seven months before the presidential election.

Last month it was confirmed that the pair will face off against each other in November, with Biden and Trump both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination and teeing up a rematch of the 2020 election.

Since then, analysis has turned to who will come up on top. So far, polls have been fairly evenly split, with commentators suggesting the race is too close to call.

While that remains the case, polls appear to be moving in Biden's favor. The Democratic incumbent is predicted to win the popular vote in eight of the twelve most recent polls added to the RacetotheWH website, which tracks average polling.

In the most recent of these polls, which was done by Reuters and Ipsos, the Democrat is expected to garner 41 percent of the vote share while Trump is predicted to win 37 percent of the vote. Ipsos polled 833 registered voters between April 5 and 9 in this survey.

In another poll of 1,265 registered voters conducted between April 3 and 5 by IBD/TIPP, Biden is predicted to win the popular vote with a 3 percentage point lead, 43 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile a Marquette poll of 674 likely voters, conducted between March 18 and March 28, suggested Biden will get 52 percent of the vote and that Trump will get 48 percent of the vote share.

However, other polls suggest Trump might have more supporters come election day. One poll of 6,236 registered voters by Morning Consult predicted that the Republican will win 44 percent of the vote share compared to Biden's 43 percent.

Another by Emerson College of 1,438 registered voters suggested Trump will take 51 percent of the vote and that Biden would get 49 percent of the vote. This poll was conducted between April 2 and 3.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Biden and Trump by email to comment on this story.

Despite apparent positive polling for Biden, Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek the race was "far too close to call."

He said: "There are any number of polls and determining which ones to give weight is difficult. That said, the greatest priority should not be given to the national polls but the polls that target the specific battleground states that have been most competitive in recent elections and are crucial for the Electoral College.
"These polls do not have a clear consensus. The Wall Street Journal just published a poll that showed Biden down in all but one of the eight battleground states. Other polls show Biden edging ahead in those states."
He continued: "By any measure, the race at this distance from November is far too close to call. And there are so many remaining wild cards. Will voters believe the economy is improving? Will the Israel-Gaza situation be somewhat resolved? Will women vote heavily on abortion rights? How much will voters prioritize immigration? Will Trump be found guilty in one of the many criminal trials against him? Will Biden have an episode that revives attention to his age? On any of these known unknowns, the race could hinge.
"We just can't know the outcome at this great distance in time."

---

This poll doesn't count. It doesn't tell the right story.

Watch the spin... The Trump machine will get them right...

---

Mothra's post is a Biden best case scenario/spin. It would be equally accurate to say that most of the polls also show the two candidates locked in a statistical dead heat nationally, in the low 40-point range (give or take a few points), with a range of 6-12 points undecided (depending on the poll).

Rule of thumb: when an incumbent has support levels significantly below 50-points, the vast majority of the undecided break for the challenger, go third party, or simply do not vote.

Biden is, in most of the polls, running between 38-45% support. That is an incredibly bad place for an incumbent to be, hail-mary territory. And all of that concerns national polling, not swing state polling, where Trump has maintained consistent statistically significant leads (at or outside the margin of error) in all but one state (WI). Now, Obama was in this situation heading into 2012, and he pulled it off. Can Biden do what Obama did? Yes, Obama is helping him (arguably actually running things). But Obama is not going to be ON the ticket, so you can't make the two interchangeable. Biden will be a drag = no chance he will be able to do 100% of what Obama did.

When a GOP candidate is locked in a dead head nationally and is ahead in swing states.....well, that's about as good as a GOP candidate has been able to do in the post-Reagan era. Good rule of thumb for a GOP candidate is, if you're tied nationally, you are likely in about as good a place as you can hope to be. Almost all polls show that's where the race is....tied....statistically speaking.

---

Of course it is. Trump is a lock. That is the only message that is acceptable. Not just on this Board, but all over. The Bannon machine is squashing any dissenting opinion.

Just wondering what happens if Trump loses? Must of been stolen? Civil War?

---

I didn't say that. Just noting the full perspective. By almost every normal yardstick, the fall election should be very difficult for Democrats to win. There's really only one scenario where the outcome is seriously in doubt - the one that says Trump is so toxic that he cannot win, no way, no how, and anyone who says otherwise is a mind-numbed Trumpbot. Except, he's won once before (with far less preparation), he's won the primary, and he's ahead in most Electoral College projections. In no small part it's because he has a far better campaign team than he had in 2016 or 2020.

If Democrats steal another one, things will get more contentious than they were last time.

---

And yet we have both 2016 and 2020. Trump should have won 2020 and lost. Clinton should have won 2016 and lost. By every metric, Biden should lose. Yet, elections are funny things. And no I do not prescribe to the stolen election in 2020, too many states and too many votes for it not to show up. You know the analysis capabilities of the US, it would show.

---

you badly mis-analyze the fraud issue. A good machine in 5-6 major US cities can easily decide a close election, and did in 2020.
In 2016, Trump overperformed the polling and won.
In 2020, Trump overperformed the polling and would have won had fraud not have been an issue in 3-4 states.

Trump is already ahead in most swing state polling. If hie overperforms the polls again, he will win an electoral landslide. A popular vote win is even possible within the current range of polls, before we even get to over/underperformance questions.

We're also seeing some interesting fundraising trends. A snippet from my Taibbi subscription:

"TOTAL MONETARY DONATIONS FROM THE TRUCKING INDUSTRY FOR EACH MAJOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, 2024 CYCLE as of April 10, OpenSecrets.Org:

• Donald Trump, $291,719
• Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., $36,790
• Joe Biden, $35,877

TOTAL MONETARY DONATIONS FROM "HEDGE FUNDS AND PRIVATE EQUITY" FOR EACH MAJOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, 2024 CYCLE as of April 10, OpenSecrets.Org:

• Donald Trump, $1,134,035
• Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., $75,949
• Joe Biden, $68,871

Now, it's early and these total will change. But when you're performing well with both high finance and truck drivers, you are in a good place.

---

What you guys are pushing is a dangerous, slippery slope.

---

No it doesn't. What's dangerous is an administration that spies on incoming President, oppositions that helps create a Russian collusion hoax complete with faked dossier and spends millions of dollars of taxpayer money on an investigation that produced squat; probably, the collusion narrative was a sham. Then members of congress crying that Trump was an illegitimate president.

And, oh please, for 8 years democrats went around the country saying that "Bush was selected, not elected" So, stop with the BS of trying to say it's dangerous when an American voter has questions about an election or believes it wasn't on the up and up.

If you don't want people to questions elections, then require in-person voting, ID and paper ballots. And get real, in my lifetime I've seen the loser question an election. Always.