Aliceinbubbleland said:
It is obvious President Biden is not going to withdraw and it is also impossible for him to have a worse second debate.
I'm inclined to agree. But....
Even if you did discover a plausible pathway to a replacement that materially improved odds, you would need to initially mount a spirited defense of Biden, make it appear as if he had stabilized his position and was back in the game, competing. That gives you time to quietly do the spadework setting up the landscape on the changes. You could not just let the guy twist in the wind for weeks, lost time in fundraising, voter registration, etc.... That would tarnish the whole slate of Democrat candidates up & down the ballots. the narrative about Democrat disarray, etc..... All those candidates would lose their ability to message on anything other than "what's gonna happen at the convention? who will you guys pick?" It would compound by orders of magnitude the problem of an enfeebled POTUS candidate. It would make it almost impossible for the new person just jump in and right the ship.
In such a scenario, I'd expect to see this talk die down, then possibly flutter up in 3 weeks or so, after all the preparations are made.
Either way, the polls probably aren't going to change much. The independents are likely to declare at the last minute.
