2024

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boognish_bear
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8:02p, 7/23/24
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historian
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In reply to boognish_bear • 8:17p, 7/23/24
We might see more of this sort of thing by November.
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Redbrickbear
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8:45p, 7/23/24
Anyone post this yet?


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4th and Inches
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In reply to boognish_bear • 8:54p, 7/23/24
boognish_bear said:
Welp

exactly!
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

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boognish_bear
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9:11p, 7/23/24
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 9:17p, 7/23/24
4th and Inches said:
boognish_bear said:
Welp

exactly!
These numbers are black tar heroin mind-boggling. Just remember, i think it was the CBS poll that tweeted on Election Day in 2016 that Hillary Clinton had a 94 percent of winning. This post and that one did not even flirt with reality.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
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whiterock
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10:15p, 7/23/24
Obviously, these two units are polling wildly different universes.

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historian
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In reply to boognish_bear • 11:16p, 7/23/24
boognish_bear said:

Most of which will be fake
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historian
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In reply to whiterock • 11:18p, 7/23/24
First is probably Hollywood Leftists, the mainstream media, & illegal aliens!
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FLBear5630
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In reply to historian • 4:32a, 7/24/24
historian said:
boognish_bear said:

Most of which will be fake


Unless Trump wins, than it is totally above board...
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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 7:39a, 7/24/24
whiterock said:
Obviously, these two units are polling wildly different universes.

I know you know this, but (kind of) in their defense, polling independents is exceedingly difficult these days. There are so few true independents that it's darn near impossible to screen them. Obviously, this is an extreme example, but polling of "independents" does fluctuate more than most.
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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 7:44a, 7/24/24
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Obviously, these two units are polling wildly different universes.

I know you know this, but (kind of) in their defense, polling independents is exceedingly difficult these days. There are so few true independents that it's darn near impossible to screen them. Obviously, this is an extreme example, but polling of "independents" does fluctuate more than most.
True....but that's a 50-pt spread.

There is some fraud going on in the polling firms.......
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boognish_bear
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7:49a, 7/24/24
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chriscbear
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7:57a, 7/24/24
Its about turnout but Kamala bump is a sugar high. Middle age people lean Kamala but are they registered voters.
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whiterock
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In reply to boognish_bear • 8:03a, 7/24/24
boognish_bear said:
....ish....

He pledged $45m/month to a Trump allied SuperPac.
Trump mentioned it in a rally in a way that sounded like a donation to the Trump campaign. Effectively, that's true. Technically, it's not.

Musk is trying to reframe the issue. When it's all over, I suspect we will see significant Musk donations to one or more Trump-allied SuperPacs.
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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 8:05a, 7/24/24
whiterock said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Obviously, these two units are polling wildly different universes.

I know you know this, but (kind of) in their defense, polling independents is exceedingly difficult these days. There are so few true independents that it's darn near impossible to screen them. Obviously, this is an extreme example, but polling of "independents" does fluctuate more than most.
True....but that's a 50-pt spread.

There is some fraud going on in the polling firms.......
If it was fraud, they'd doctor or refuse to publish altogether the tabs and spreads. In fairness, I don't have a better explanation . . . but seems a silly way to commit fraud.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to chriscbear • 8:07a, 7/24/24
chriscbear said:
Its about turnout but Kamala bump is a sugar high. Middle age people lean Kamala but are they registered voters.
Will we get enough time to knock off sugar high? Convention in August will be another sugar high. That will carry her into October...
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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 8:18a, 7/24/24
sombear said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Obviously, these two units are polling wildly different universes.

I know you know this, but (kind of) in their defense, polling independents is exceedingly difficult these days. There are so few true independents that it's darn near impossible to screen them. Obviously, this is an extreme example, but polling of "independents" does fluctuate more than most.
True....but that's a 50-pt spread.

There is some fraud going on in the polling firms.......
If it was fraud, they'd doctor or refuse to publish altogether the tabs and spreads. In fairness, I don't have a better explanation . . . but seems a silly way to commit fraud.
It's doing a favor to keep in good graces.

I believe it was Marist that had Biden up by 17 in WI a week out in 2020. Biden won a squeaker.

Yes, some of those polling firms put their finger on the scales to help Democrats. Just a little. Early on. to make the race appear competitive (when Dems are struggling) or over (when GOP is down). They all have to try to get close at the end, though. Ergo the big convergence in the last few weeks of the race.
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boognish_bear
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8:19a, 7/24/24
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boognish_bear
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8:30a, 7/24/24
....
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whiterock
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In reply to boognish_bear • 9:18a, 7/24/24
boognish_bear said:
That's not a lot of movement from Morning Consult, an honest polling firm that has shown a margin of error race all year (one way or the other).

the big swings toward Harris are from the three units which are typically not as close as most to the finish line.

But there's still an ocean of water to flow under the bridge. So we watch & wait.........
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boognish_bear
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11:24a, 7/24/24
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VaeBear
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In reply to boognish_bear • 11:51a, 7/24/24
boognish_bear said:


He said college sorority.
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Jack Bauer
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In reply to boognish_bear • 11:53a, 7/24/24
boognish_bear said:
Delete your post

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boognish_bear
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 1:12p, 7/24/24
Jack Bauer said:
boognish_bear said:
Delete your post



The original tweeter updated with that

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boognish_bear
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1:29p, 7/24/24
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Waco1947
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1:47p, 7/24/24
Jack Bauer
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3:02p, 7/24/24
The Democratic voters - ladies and gentlemen.

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Jack Bauer
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3:46p, 7/24/24
Now imagine these same people crying "genocide" if a guy makes tires marks on a rainbow street mural..

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GrowlTowel
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4:55p, 7/24/24
Dems going to dem, and then blame Republicans for their behavior.
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Osodecentx
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5:06p, 7/24/24
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boognish_bear
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5:20p, 7/24/24
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whiterock
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5:32p, 7/24/24
Good summary of what's out there.

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historian
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 5:38p, 7/24/24
If Trump wins, it will be definite fraud by the Dems. It's pretty much a given that they will engage in all kinds of shenanigans pretty much everywhere. It will be harder in some states such as Texas & Georgia but pretty easy in their strongholds like New York, California, Illinois, & Michigan.
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TenBears
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 5:41p, 7/24/24
FLBear5630 said:
chriscbear said:
Its about turnout but Kamala bump is a sugar high. Middle age people lean Kamala but are they registered voters.
Will we get enough time to knock off sugar high? Convention in August will be another sugar high. That will carry her into October...


Followed by the VP pick bump, Obama endorsement bump and the likely T Swift endorsement bump. I don't think it's going to be particularly close in the end.
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