2024

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historian
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In reply to Doc Holliday • 10:41a, 8/15/24
It's part of the fascist playbook: cause a disaster then cause more disasters to "fix" the problems you started in the first place. All along they effectively flame from themselves and accept no responsibility for their failures. They ard Bart Simpson!
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historian
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10:42a, 8/15/24
I intended to post this yesterday:

LOOK On Dan Goldman's Face As Bret Baier Nukes Him for Saying Trump Won't Debate Kamala PRICELESS (Watch)

https://twitchy.com/samj/2024/08/13/dan-goldman-tries-claiming-trump-refused-to-debate-bret-baier-n2399574

Good for Bret!
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FLBear5630
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In reply to historian • 10:47a, 8/15/24
historian said:
Again, how many of those are illegals?
Have no idea, just saying I can understand it.
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boognish_bear
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10:59a, 8/15/24
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4th and Inches
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11:07a, 8/15/24
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
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4th and Inches
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In reply to boognish_bear • 11:08a, 8/15/24
boognish_bear said:
Rassmussen has been like near the top but because they tend to error on the GOP when they miss, its a C rated poll? Other one that have been 100% wrong and missed every time to the Dem side get higher ratings..
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
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sombear
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In reply to Adriacus Peratuun • 11:09a, 8/15/24
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
boognish_bear said:


Look at these internals on that Fox poll



The Hispanic numbers are far off. Fox interviewed English speakers only.
Because a massive number of non-English speaking Hispanic registered voters exists?

Care to try a different nonsense story?
Ha, talk to any pollster or campaign consultant. The more "spanish-centered the voter" the more likely they vote Dem, and vice versa. That shouldn't surprise anyone.

I like to pick apart tabs as much as anyone, and usually it's a Dem poll I'm picking apart. Just calling them as I see them. Bottom line, if you are polling Hispanics exclusively in English, you are not getting a representative sample. Combine that with a smaller than typical sample and you have a severely flawed tab.

Trump is down significantly among Hispanics at this time.
Who types Ha? or actually refuses to see the data?

55% of Spanish LOTE at Home are USA born and English fluent.
Source? USA Census.


More…..

79.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are Non-Limited English [functional English]
Only 20.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are English Partial

The correlation between (1) citizenship and voting rights and (2) fluency/functionality is massive.
Which takes us back to the "non English speaking registered voter numbers are tiny".

So you disagree with the vast majority of pollsters and political consultants. That's fine, and I respect your opinion. How about a friendly wager on the ultimate Hispanic vote?

Which would be determined [since we have private voting] solely by post-voting polling by the exact same people?

LOL will pass on that nonsense.

FYI……look at how the better polling groups treat their True Ups. More importantly, how Language isn't among the criteria.


Pollsters I know and trust, including Trump's primary pollsters, factor in language and poll at least partially in Spanish.

You don't trust exit polling? It has its flaws but by and large it always has been informative.

BTW RNC has Trump down double digits with Hispanics.
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4th and Inches
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11:29a, 8/15/24
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
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Adriacus Peratuun
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In reply to sombear • 11:38a, 8/15/24
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
boognish_bear said:


Look at these internals on that Fox poll



The Hispanic numbers are far off. Fox interviewed English speakers only.
Because a massive number of non-English speaking Hispanic registered voters exists?

Care to try a different nonsense story?
Ha, talk to any pollster or campaign consultant. The more "spanish-centered the voter" the more likely they vote Dem, and vice versa. That shouldn't surprise anyone.

I like to pick apart tabs as much as anyone, and usually it's a Dem poll I'm picking apart. Just calling them as I see them. Bottom line, if you are polling Hispanics exclusively in English, you are not getting a representative sample. Combine that with a smaller than typical sample and you have a severely flawed tab.

Trump is down significantly among Hispanics at this time.
Who types Ha? or actually refuses to see the data?

55% of Spanish LOTE at Home are USA born and English fluent.
Source? USA Census.


More…..

79.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are Non-Limited English [functional English]
Only 20.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are English Partial

The correlation between (1) citizenship and voting rights and (2) fluency/functionality is massive.
Which takes us back to the "non English speaking registered voter numbers are tiny".

So you disagree with the vast majority of pollsters and political consultants. That's fine, and I respect your opinion. How about a friendly wager on the ultimate Hispanic vote?

Which would be determined [since we have private voting] solely by post-voting polling by the exact same people?

LOL will pass on that nonsense.

FYI……look at how the better polling groups treat their True Ups. More importantly, how Language isn't among the criteria.


Pollsters I know and trust, including Trump's primary pollsters, factor in language and poll at least partially in Spanish.

You don't trust exit polling? It has its flaws but by and large it always has been informative.

BTW RNC has Trump down double digits with Hispanics.
Trust exit polling? For what?
Predicting a winner. Sure. Being precise on voting patterns of subgroups of subgroups. Not even remotely.
Informative? Nice imprecise word for a process that is supposed to create clarity.

A pollster's precision is tied directly to the depth of data and the True Up process. Most polling groups have horrid methodology.

You are frankensteining your argument. Harris could crush SoCal Latinos thus winning National Latino vote but still lose Latino vote in Arizona & Pennsylvania [which is what matters]. Your fallacy is the same one continually found with polling of AA…..an assumption that voting patterns follow linear increase/decrease. And then shoehorning specific [poorly collected and processed] polling data into that assumption.

If you want a real complaint start looking into the many problems of Marquette and Quinnipiac using student pollsters.
Look at YouGov using such unrepresentative raw data that no amount of correction methodology can really correct it.
Look at MSNBC for anything and everything……..2020 last pre-voting poll was Biden +15.

You are building a straw man and your argument is totally lacking in connectivity.

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boognish_bear
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11:48a, 8/15/24
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sombear
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In reply to Adriacus Peratuun • 12:30p, 8/15/24
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
boognish_bear said:


Look at these internals on that Fox poll



The Hispanic numbers are far off. Fox interviewed English speakers only.
Because a massive number of non-English speaking Hispanic registered voters exists?

Care to try a different nonsense story?
Ha, talk to any pollster or campaign consultant. The more "spanish-centered the voter" the more likely they vote Dem, and vice versa. That shouldn't surprise anyone.

I like to pick apart tabs as much as anyone, and usually it's a Dem poll I'm picking apart. Just calling them as I see them. Bottom line, if you are polling Hispanics exclusively in English, you are not getting a representative sample. Combine that with a smaller than typical sample and you have a severely flawed tab.

Trump is down significantly among Hispanics at this time.
Who types Ha? or actually refuses to see the data?

55% of Spanish LOTE at Home are USA born and English fluent.
Source? USA Census.


More…..

79.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are Non-Limited English [functional English]
Only 20.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are English Partial

The correlation between (1) citizenship and voting rights and (2) fluency/functionality is massive.
Which takes us back to the "non English speaking registered voter numbers are tiny".

So you disagree with the vast majority of pollsters and political consultants. That's fine, and I respect your opinion. How about a friendly wager on the ultimate Hispanic vote?

Which would be determined [since we have private voting] solely by post-voting polling by the exact same people?

LOL will pass on that nonsense.

FYI……look at how the better polling groups treat their True Ups. More importantly, how Language isn't among the criteria.


Pollsters I know and trust, including Trump's primary pollsters, factor in language and poll at least partially in Spanish.

You don't trust exit polling? It has its flaws but by and large it always has been informative.

BTW RNC has Trump down double digits with Hispanics.
Trust exit polling? For what?
Predicting a winner. Sure. Being precise on voting patterns of subgroups of subgroups. Not even remotely.
Informative? Nice imprecise word for a process that is supposed to create clarity.

A pollster's precision is tied directly to the depth of data and the True Up process. Most polling groups have horrid methodology.

You are frankensteining your argument. Harris could crush SoCal Latinos thus winning National Latino vote but still lose Latino vote in Arizona & Pennsylvania [which is what matters]. Your fallacy is the same one continually found with polling of AA…..an assumption that voting patterns follow linear increase/decrease. And then shoehorning specific [poorly collected and processed] polling data into that assumption.

If you want a real complaint start looking into the many problems of Marquette and Quinnipiac using student pollsters.
Look at YouGov using such unrepresentative raw data that no amount of correction methodology can really correct it.
Look at MSNBC for anything and everything……..2020 last pre-voting poll was Biden +15.

You are building a straw man and your argument is totally lacking in connectivity.



Funny, I agree with everything you just said except your view exit polling isn't informative on subgroups - and of course I disagree with your view on my arguments …..

You certainly don't have to convince me that some polls are flawed. But I studied polling in grad school and worked campaigns for many years, so still largely find them accurate overall.
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Adriacus Peratuun
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In reply to sombear • 12:48p, 8/15/24
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
boognish_bear said:


Look at these internals on that Fox poll



The Hispanic numbers are far off. Fox interviewed English speakers only.
Because a massive number of non-English speaking Hispanic registered voters exists?

Care to try a different nonsense story?
Ha, talk to any pollster or campaign consultant. The more "spanish-centered the voter" the more likely they vote Dem, and vice versa. That shouldn't surprise anyone.

I like to pick apart tabs as much as anyone, and usually it's a Dem poll I'm picking apart. Just calling them as I see them. Bottom line, if you are polling Hispanics exclusively in English, you are not getting a representative sample. Combine that with a smaller than typical sample and you have a severely flawed tab.

Trump is down significantly among Hispanics at this time.
Who types Ha? or actually refuses to see the data?

55% of Spanish LOTE at Home are USA born and English fluent.
Source? USA Census.


More…..

79.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are Non-Limited English [functional English]
Only 20.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are English Partial

The correlation between (1) citizenship and voting rights and (2) fluency/functionality is massive.
Which takes us back to the "non English speaking registered voter numbers are tiny".

So you disagree with the vast majority of pollsters and political consultants. That's fine, and I respect your opinion. How about a friendly wager on the ultimate Hispanic vote?

Which would be determined [since we have private voting] solely by post-voting polling by the exact same people?

LOL will pass on that nonsense.

FYI……look at how the better polling groups treat their True Ups. More importantly, how Language isn't among the criteria.


Pollsters I know and trust, including Trump's primary pollsters, factor in language and poll at least partially in Spanish.

You don't trust exit polling? It has its flaws but by and large it always has been informative.

BTW RNC has Trump down double digits with Hispanics.
Trust exit polling? For what?
Predicting a winner. Sure. Being precise on voting patterns of subgroups of subgroups. Not even remotely.
Informative? Nice imprecise word for a process that is supposed to create clarity.

A pollster's precision is tied directly to the depth of data and the True Up process. Most polling groups have horrid methodology.

You are frankensteining your argument. Harris could crush SoCal Latinos thus winning National Latino vote but still lose Latino vote in Arizona & Pennsylvania [which is what matters]. Your fallacy is the same one continually found with polling of AA…..an assumption that voting patterns follow linear increase/decrease. And then shoehorning specific [poorly collected and processed] polling data into that assumption.

If you want a real complaint start looking into the many problems of Marquette and Quinnipiac using student pollsters.
Look at YouGov using such unrepresentative raw data that no amount of correction methodology can really correct it.
Look at MSNBC for anything and everything……..2020 last pre-voting poll was Biden +15.

You are building a straw man and your argument is totally lacking in connectivity.



Funny, I agree with everything you just said except your view exit polling isn't informative on subgroups - and of course I disagree with your view on my arguments …..

You certainly don't have to convince me that some polls are flawed. But I studied polling in grad school and worked campaigns for many years, so still largely find them accurate overall.
Want to convince me? Specific poll from specific state. Be prepared on methodology.

But global statements have little value.
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Mothra
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In reply to boognish_bear • 1:07p, 8/15/24
boognish_bear said:
It's incredible the discrepancies between the polls. Which ones should we believe?
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boognish_bear
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In reply to Mothra • 1:12p, 8/15/24
Mothra said:
boognish_bear said:
It's incredible the discrepancies between the polls. Which ones should we believe?
It's choose your own adventure....
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Adriacus Peratuun
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In reply to Mothra • 1:27p, 8/15/24
Mothra said:
boognish_bear said:
It's incredible the discrepancies between the polls. Which ones should we believe?
Most are garbage.

Specific example: Nebraska CD2

After the 2020 Census, Nebraska necessarily redrew district boundaries.



Despite significant change in the boundaries to CD2, most pollsters continue to use pre-redistricting demographics and election results. No sane person can justify it.

Estimating age distribution, gender distribution, ethnicity distribution, political party affiliation etc. using pre-redistricting data is simply hot garbage.

Look at the 2022 & 2024 poll predictions for CD2 and then look at 2022 results.
And if you care to dig deep, you can see the changing demographics of CD2 are eye catching.
Percentages of AA and Asians have risen dramatically. Percentage of Hispanics has dropped dramatically.
The North to South orientation [AA and Asians Are North, Hispanics are South] became an East to North/Northwest orientation. The 2022 election results were similar but the reasons were different. When pollsters point to AA growth in CD2 without mentioning the corresponding drop in Hispanics they are simply ignoring half the change.
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1:48p, 8/15/24
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1:54p, 8/15/24
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In reply to Adriacus Peratuun • 3:07p, 8/15/24
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
boognish_bear said:


Look at these internals on that Fox poll



The Hispanic numbers are far off. Fox interviewed English speakers only.
Because a massive number of non-English speaking Hispanic registered voters exists?

Care to try a different nonsense story?
Ha, talk to any pollster or campaign consultant. The more "spanish-centered the voter" the more likely they vote Dem, and vice versa. That shouldn't surprise anyone.

I like to pick apart tabs as much as anyone, and usually it's a Dem poll I'm picking apart. Just calling them as I see them. Bottom line, if you are polling Hispanics exclusively in English, you are not getting a representative sample. Combine that with a smaller than typical sample and you have a severely flawed tab.

Trump is down significantly among Hispanics at this time.
Who types Ha? or actually refuses to see the data?

55% of Spanish LOTE at Home are USA born and English fluent.
Source? USA Census.


More…..

79.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are Non-Limited English [functional English]
Only 20.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are English Partial

The correlation between (1) citizenship and voting rights and (2) fluency/functionality is massive.
Which takes us back to the "non English speaking registered voter numbers are tiny".

So you disagree with the vast majority of pollsters and political consultants. That's fine, and I respect your opinion. How about a friendly wager on the ultimate Hispanic vote?

Which would be determined [since we have private voting] solely by post-voting polling by the exact same people?

LOL will pass on that nonsense.

FYI……look at how the better polling groups treat their True Ups. More importantly, how Language isn't among the criteria.


Pollsters I know and trust, including Trump's primary pollsters, factor in language and poll at least partially in Spanish.

You don't trust exit polling? It has its flaws but by and large it always has been informative.

BTW RNC has Trump down double digits with Hispanics.
Trust exit polling? For what?
Predicting a winner. Sure. Being precise on voting patterns of subgroups of subgroups. Not even remotely.
Informative? Nice imprecise word for a process that is supposed to create clarity.

A pollster's precision is tied directly to the depth of data and the True Up process. Most polling groups have horrid methodology.

You are frankensteining your argument. Harris could crush SoCal Latinos thus winning National Latino vote but still lose Latino vote in Arizona & Pennsylvania [which is what matters]. Your fallacy is the same one continually found with polling of AA…..an assumption that voting patterns follow linear increase/decrease. And then shoehorning specific [poorly collected and processed] polling data into that assumption.

If you want a real complaint start looking into the many problems of Marquette and Quinnipiac using student pollsters.
Look at YouGov using such unrepresentative raw data that no amount of correction methodology can really correct it.
Look at MSNBC for anything and everything……..2020 last pre-voting poll was Biden +15.

You are building a straw man and your argument is totally lacking in connectivity.



Funny, I agree with everything you just said except your view exit polling isn't informative on subgroups - and of course I disagree with your view on my arguments …..

You certainly don't have to convince me that some polls are flawed. But I studied polling in grad school and worked campaigns for many years, so still largely find them accurate overall.
Want to convince me? Specific poll from specific state. Be prepared on methodology.

But global statements have little value.
I'm not sure what you mean. Are you asking me how exit polling works?
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boognish_bear
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3:47p, 8/15/24
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Adriacus Peratuun
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In reply to sombear • 3:59p, 8/15/24
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
boognish_bear said:


Look at these internals on that Fox poll



The Hispanic numbers are far off. Fox interviewed English speakers only.
Because a massive number of non-English speaking Hispanic registered voters exists?

Care to try a different nonsense story?
Ha, talk to any pollster or campaign consultant. The more "spanish-centered the voter" the more likely they vote Dem, and vice versa. That shouldn't surprise anyone.

I like to pick apart tabs as much as anyone, and usually it's a Dem poll I'm picking apart. Just calling them as I see them. Bottom line, if you are polling Hispanics exclusively in English, you are not getting a representative sample. Combine that with a smaller than typical sample and you have a severely flawed tab.

Trump is down significantly among Hispanics at this time.
Who types Ha? or actually refuses to see the data?

55% of Spanish LOTE at Home are USA born and English fluent.
Source? USA Census.


More…..

79.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are Non-Limited English [functional English]
Only 20.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are English Partial

The correlation between (1) citizenship and voting rights and (2) fluency/functionality is massive.
Which takes us back to the "non English speaking registered voter numbers are tiny".

So you disagree with the vast majority of pollsters and political consultants. That's fine, and I respect your opinion. How about a friendly wager on the ultimate Hispanic vote?

Which would be determined [since we have private voting] solely by post-voting polling by the exact same people?

LOL will pass on that nonsense.

FYI……look at how the better polling groups treat their True Ups. More importantly, how Language isn't among the criteria.


Pollsters I know and trust, including Trump's primary pollsters, factor in language and poll at least partially in Spanish.

You don't trust exit polling? It has its flaws but by and large it always has been informative.

BTW RNC has Trump down double digits with Hispanics.
Trust exit polling? For what?
Predicting a winner. Sure. Being precise on voting patterns of subgroups of subgroups. Not even remotely.
Informative? Nice imprecise word for a process that is supposed to create clarity.

A pollster's precision is tied directly to the depth of data and the True Up process. Most polling groups have horrid methodology.

You are frankensteining your argument. Harris could crush SoCal Latinos thus winning National Latino vote but still lose Latino vote in Arizona & Pennsylvania [which is what matters]. Your fallacy is the same one continually found with polling of AA…..an assumption that voting patterns follow linear increase/decrease. And then shoehorning specific [poorly collected and processed] polling data into that assumption.

If you want a real complaint start looking into the many problems of Marquette and Quinnipiac using student pollsters.
Look at YouGov using such unrepresentative raw data that no amount of correction methodology can really correct it.
Look at MSNBC for anything and everything……..2020 last pre-voting poll was Biden +15.

You are building a straw man and your argument is totally lacking in connectivity.



Funny, I agree with everything you just said except your view exit polling isn't informative on subgroups - and of course I disagree with your view on my arguments …..

You certainly don't have to convince me that some polls are flawed. But I studied polling in grad school and worked campaigns for many years, so still largely find them accurate overall.
Want to convince me? Specific poll from specific state. Be prepared on methodology.

But global statements have little value.
I'm not sure what you mean. Are you asking me how exit polling works?
Nice try to divert and demean.

Even exit polling has methodology to insure certain political parties, ethnicities, ages, geographic areas, etc. are neither under nor over sampled. Raw data is easily manipulated.

But if you are what you claim, you know that reality and are simply being obtuse.
You steadfastly refuse to discuss details and simply lob bombs.
Constantly retyping polling is reliable doesn't make your right. It simply makes you repetitive.
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sombear
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In reply to Adriacus Peratuun • 4:07p, 8/15/24
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
boognish_bear said:


Look at these internals on that Fox poll



The Hispanic numbers are far off. Fox interviewed English speakers only.
Because a massive number of non-English speaking Hispanic registered voters exists?

Care to try a different nonsense story?
Ha, talk to any pollster or campaign consultant. The more "spanish-centered the voter" the more likely they vote Dem, and vice versa. That shouldn't surprise anyone.

I like to pick apart tabs as much as anyone, and usually it's a Dem poll I'm picking apart. Just calling them as I see them. Bottom line, if you are polling Hispanics exclusively in English, you are not getting a representative sample. Combine that with a smaller than typical sample and you have a severely flawed tab.

Trump is down significantly among Hispanics at this time.
Who types Ha? or actually refuses to see the data?

55% of Spanish LOTE at Home are USA born and English fluent.
Source? USA Census.


More…..

79.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are Non-Limited English [functional English]
Only 20.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are English Partial

The correlation between (1) citizenship and voting rights and (2) fluency/functionality is massive.
Which takes us back to the "non English speaking registered voter numbers are tiny".

So you disagree with the vast majority of pollsters and political consultants. That's fine, and I respect your opinion. How about a friendly wager on the ultimate Hispanic vote?

Which would be determined [since we have private voting] solely by post-voting polling by the exact same people?

LOL will pass on that nonsense.

FYI……look at how the better polling groups treat their True Ups. More importantly, how Language isn't among the criteria.


Pollsters I know and trust, including Trump's primary pollsters, factor in language and poll at least partially in Spanish.

You don't trust exit polling? It has its flaws but by and large it always has been informative.

BTW RNC has Trump down double digits with Hispanics.
Trust exit polling? For what?
Predicting a winner. Sure. Being precise on voting patterns of subgroups of subgroups. Not even remotely.
Informative? Nice imprecise word for a process that is supposed to create clarity.

A pollster's precision is tied directly to the depth of data and the True Up process. Most polling groups have horrid methodology.

You are frankensteining your argument. Harris could crush SoCal Latinos thus winning National Latino vote but still lose Latino vote in Arizona & Pennsylvania [which is what matters]. Your fallacy is the same one continually found with polling of AA…..an assumption that voting patterns follow linear increase/decrease. And then shoehorning specific [poorly collected and processed] polling data into that assumption.

If you want a real complaint start looking into the many problems of Marquette and Quinnipiac using student pollsters.
Look at YouGov using such unrepresentative raw data that no amount of correction methodology can really correct it.
Look at MSNBC for anything and everything……..2020 last pre-voting poll was Biden +15.

You are building a straw man and your argument is totally lacking in connectivity.



Funny, I agree with everything you just said except your view exit polling isn't informative on subgroups - and of course I disagree with your view on my arguments …..

You certainly don't have to convince me that some polls are flawed. But I studied polling in grad school and worked campaigns for many years, so still largely find them accurate overall.
Want to convince me? Specific poll from specific state. Be prepared on methodology.

But global statements have little value.
I'm not sure what you mean. Are you asking me how exit polling works?
Nice try to divert and demean.

Even exit polling has methodology to insure certain political parties, ethnicities, ages, geographic areas, etc. are neither under nor over sampled. Raw data is easily manipulated.

But if you are what you claim, you know that reality and are simply being obtuse.
You steadfastly refuse to discuss details and simply lob bombs.
Constantly retyping polling is reliable doesn't make your right. It simply makes you repetitive.
You totally misinterpreted my response. No intent to demean. You're a good poster. I truly thought perhaps that's what you were asking.

What details are you asking for?

And I'm not sure what you are arguing. Do you think polls are not reliable? If so, pre-election, exit, or both. Or are you just saying some pollsters are unreliable?
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whiterock
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4:33p, 8/15/24
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Adriacus Peratuun
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In reply to sombear • 4:44p, 8/15/24
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
boognish_bear said:


Look at these internals on that Fox poll



The Hispanic numbers are far off. Fox interviewed English speakers only.
Because a massive number of non-English speaking Hispanic registered voters exists?

Care to try a different nonsense story?
Ha, talk to any pollster or campaign consultant. The more "spanish-centered the voter" the more likely they vote Dem, and vice versa. That shouldn't surprise anyone.

I like to pick apart tabs as much as anyone, and usually it's a Dem poll I'm picking apart. Just calling them as I see them. Bottom line, if you are polling Hispanics exclusively in English, you are not getting a representative sample. Combine that with a smaller than typical sample and you have a severely flawed tab.

Trump is down significantly among Hispanics at this time.
Who types Ha? or actually refuses to see the data?

55% of Spanish LOTE at Home are USA born and English fluent.
Source? USA Census.


More…..

79.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are Non-Limited English [functional English]
Only 20.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are English Partial

The correlation between (1) citizenship and voting rights and (2) fluency/functionality is massive.
Which takes us back to the "non English speaking registered voter numbers are tiny".

So you disagree with the vast majority of pollsters and political consultants. That's fine, and I respect your opinion. How about a friendly wager on the ultimate Hispanic vote?

Which would be determined [since we have private voting] solely by post-voting polling by the exact same people?

LOL will pass on that nonsense.

FYI……look at how the better polling groups treat their True Ups. More importantly, how Language isn't among the criteria.


Pollsters I know and trust, including Trump's primary pollsters, factor in language and poll at least partially in Spanish.

You don't trust exit polling? It has its flaws but by and large it always has been informative.

BTW RNC has Trump down double digits with Hispanics.
Trust exit polling? For what?
Predicting a winner. Sure. Being precise on voting patterns of subgroups of subgroups. Not even remotely.
Informative? Nice imprecise word for a process that is supposed to create clarity.

A pollster's precision is tied directly to the depth of data and the True Up process. Most polling groups have horrid methodology.

You are frankensteining your argument. Harris could crush SoCal Latinos thus winning National Latino vote but still lose Latino vote in Arizona & Pennsylvania [which is what matters]. Your fallacy is the same one continually found with polling of AA…..an assumption that voting patterns follow linear increase/decrease. And then shoehorning specific [poorly collected and processed] polling data into that assumption.

If you want a real complaint start looking into the many problems of Marquette and Quinnipiac using student pollsters.
Look at YouGov using such unrepresentative raw data that no amount of correction methodology can really correct it.
Look at MSNBC for anything and everything……..2020 last pre-voting poll was Biden +15.

You are building a straw man and your argument is totally lacking in connectivity.



Funny, I agree with everything you just said except your view exit polling isn't informative on subgroups - and of course I disagree with your view on my arguments …..

You certainly don't have to convince me that some polls are flawed. But I studied polling in grad school and worked campaigns for many years, so still largely find them accurate overall.
Want to convince me? Specific poll from specific state. Be prepared on methodology.

But global statements have little value.
I'm not sure what you mean. Are you asking me how exit polling works?
Nice try to divert and demean.

Even exit polling has methodology to insure certain political parties, ethnicities, ages, geographic areas, etc. are neither under nor over sampled. Raw data is easily manipulated.

But if you are what you claim, you know that reality and are simply being obtuse.
You steadfastly refuse to discuss details and simply lob bombs.
Constantly retyping polling is reliable doesn't make your right. It simply makes you repetitive.
You totally misinterpreted my response. No intent to demean. You're a good poster. I truly thought perhaps that's what you were asking.

What details are you asking for?

And I'm not sure what you are arguing. Do you think polls are not reliable? If so, pre-election, exit, or both. Or are you just saying some pollsters are unreliable?
Go retread that repetitive loop with someone else.
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boognish_bear
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5:03p, 8/15/24
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boognish_bear
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5:16p, 8/15/24
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 5:37p, 8/15/24
4th and Inches said:
boognish_bear said:
Rassmussen has been like near the top but because they tend to error on the GOP when they miss, its a C rated poll? Other one that have been 100% wrong and missed every time to the Dem side get higher ratings..



Rasmussen polls a +2D demographic. It's pretty obvious got dropped from 538 because they did not "play the game" with unrealistic polling universes (which would further the narrative).
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4th and Inches
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In reply to whiterock • 6:01p, 8/15/24
whiterock said:
this is huge.. learned something and building a monster ground game. I bet the Dems didnt see this coming
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4th and Inches
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In reply to whiterock • 7:24p, 8/15/24
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
boognish_bear said:
Rassmussen has been like near the top but because they tend to error on the GOP when they miss, its a C rated poll? Other one that have been 100% wrong and missed every time to the Dem side get higher ratings..



Rasmussen polls a +2D demographic. It's pretty obvious got dropped from 538 because they did not "play the game" with unrealistic polling universes (which would further the narrative).

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historian
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 7:37p, 8/15/24
My question was more rhetorical. I didn't expect you or anyone here to have an answer.
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sombear
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In reply to Adriacus Peratuun • 8:59p, 8/15/24
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
boognish_bear said:


Look at these internals on that Fox poll



The Hispanic numbers are far off. Fox interviewed English speakers only.
Because a massive number of non-English speaking Hispanic registered voters exists?

Care to try a different nonsense story?
Ha, talk to any pollster or campaign consultant. The more "spanish-centered the voter" the more likely they vote Dem, and vice versa. That shouldn't surprise anyone.

I like to pick apart tabs as much as anyone, and usually it's a Dem poll I'm picking apart. Just calling them as I see them. Bottom line, if you are polling Hispanics exclusively in English, you are not getting a representative sample. Combine that with a smaller than typical sample and you have a severely flawed tab.

Trump is down significantly among Hispanics at this time.
Who types Ha? or actually refuses to see the data?

55% of Spanish LOTE at Home are USA born and English fluent.
Source? USA Census.


More…..

79.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are Non-Limited English [functional English]
Only 20.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are English Partial

The correlation between (1) citizenship and voting rights and (2) fluency/functionality is massive.
Which takes us back to the "non English speaking registered voter numbers are tiny".

So you disagree with the vast majority of pollsters and political consultants. That's fine, and I respect your opinion. How about a friendly wager on the ultimate Hispanic vote?

Which would be determined [since we have private voting] solely by post-voting polling by the exact same people?

LOL will pass on that nonsense.

FYI……look at how the better polling groups treat their True Ups. More importantly, how Language isn't among the criteria.


Pollsters I know and trust, including Trump's primary pollsters, factor in language and poll at least partially in Spanish.

You don't trust exit polling? It has its flaws but by and large it always has been informative.

BTW RNC has Trump down double digits with Hispanics.
Trust exit polling? For what?
Predicting a winner. Sure. Being precise on voting patterns of subgroups of subgroups. Not even remotely.
Informative? Nice imprecise word for a process that is supposed to create clarity.

A pollster's precision is tied directly to the depth of data and the True Up process. Most polling groups have horrid methodology.

You are frankensteining your argument. Harris could crush SoCal Latinos thus winning National Latino vote but still lose Latino vote in Arizona & Pennsylvania [which is what matters]. Your fallacy is the same one continually found with polling of AA…..an assumption that voting patterns follow linear increase/decrease. And then shoehorning specific [poorly collected and processed] polling data into that assumption.

If you want a real complaint start looking into the many problems of Marquette and Quinnipiac using student pollsters.
Look at YouGov using such unrepresentative raw data that no amount of correction methodology can really correct it.
Look at MSNBC for anything and everything……..2020 last pre-voting poll was Biden +15.

You are building a straw man and your argument is totally lacking in connectivity.



Funny, I agree with everything you just said except your view exit polling isn't informative on subgroups - and of course I disagree with your view on my arguments …..

You certainly don't have to convince me that some polls are flawed. But I studied polling in grad school and worked campaigns for many years, so still largely find them accurate overall.
Want to convince me? Specific poll from specific state. Be prepared on methodology.

But global statements have little value.
I'm not sure what you mean. Are you asking me how exit polling works?
Nice try to divert and demean.

Even exit polling has methodology to insure certain political parties, ethnicities, ages, geographic areas, etc. are neither under nor over sampled. Raw data is easily manipulated.

But if you are what you claim, you know that reality and are simply being obtuse.
You steadfastly refuse to discuss details and simply lob bombs.
Constantly retyping polling is reliable doesn't make your right. It simply makes you repetitive.
You totally misinterpreted my response. No intent to demean. You're a good poster. I truly thought perhaps that's what you were asking.

What details are you asking for?

And I'm not sure what you are arguing. Do you think polls are not reliable? If so, pre-election, exit, or both. Or are you just saying some pollsters are unreliable?
Go retread that repetitive loop with someone else.


What has happened to you, man?
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Aliceinbubbleland
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In reply to boognish_bear • 9:17p, 8/15/24
boognish_bear said:
This sounds like some BS from Democrats. I think Trump is still a Democrat at heart.
Astros in Home Stretch Geaux Texans
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4th and Inches
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9:19p, 8/15/24
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
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historian
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9:48p, 8/15/24
I remember in January 2021, before the disaster began, gas here in central Texas was around $1.80 per gallon. Now, after some recent drops (just in time for the fascist convention), it's more than $1 per gallon higher. I also remember that it approached $4 a gallon at least once during that time. Now, imagine how bad it is for people outside Texas. And of course, it's not gas only but groceries, insurance, housing, medicine, etc. Bidenflation is real and it's hurting lots of people.
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