Trump: When we gave her the Presidential Medal of Freedom… It’s the equivalent of the Congressional Medal of Honor— it’s actually much better because everyone who gets the Congressional Medal, they’re soldiers. They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many… pic.twitter.com/a766KxAC2e

— Acyn (@Acyn) August 16, 2024

Redbrickbear said:

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Imagine being a liberal boomer and watching this as your “news” lol pic.twitter.com/MmS6PcIB8o

— Andrew Torba (@BasedTorba) August 16, 2024

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BLM

Blacks
Love
Maga

Was a shirt i saw yesterday

#New General Election poll

🔴 Trump 49% (+2)
🔵 Harris 47%

Last poll - 🟡 Tie

RMG #C - 2708 LV - 8/14

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 16, 2024

This pollster Nailed the Biden share in 2020, missed Trumps share.. lots of pollsters tend to under poll Trumps share

sombear said:

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Adriacus Peratuun said:

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sombear said:

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Adriacus Peratuun said:

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sombear said:

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Adriacus Peratuun said:

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sombear said:

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Adriacus Peratuun said:

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sombear said:

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Adriacus Peratuun said:

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sombear said:

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Adriacus Peratuun said:

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sombear said:

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Adriacus Peratuun said:

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sombear said:

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whiterock said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Independents - 🔴 Trump +8 (51/43)
Hispanic - 🔴 Trump +6 (52/46) https://t.co/Tq66OIoWk4

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 14, 2024

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Look at these internals on that Fox poll

Independents - 🔴 Trump +8 (51/43)
Hispanic - 🔴 Trump +6 (52/46) https://t.co/Tq66OIoWk4

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 14, 2024

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The Hispanic numbers are far off. Fox interviewed English speakers only.

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Because a massive number of non-English speaking Hispanic registered voters exists?

Care to try a different nonsense story?

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Ha, talk to any pollster or campaign consultant. The more "spanish-centered the voter" the more likely they vote Dem, and vice versa. That shouldn't surprise anyone.

I like to pick apart tabs as much as anyone, and usually it's a Dem poll I'm picking apart. Just calling them as I see them. Bottom line, if you are polling Hispanics exclusively in English, you are not getting a representative sample. Combine that with a smaller than typical sample and you have a severely flawed tab.

Trump is down significantly among Hispanics at this time.

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Who types Ha? or actually refuses to see the data?

55% of Spanish LOTE at Home are USA born and English fluent.
Source? USA Census.


More…..

79.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are Non-Limited English [functional English]
Only 20.5 of Spanish LOTE at Home are English Partial

The correlation between (1) citizenship and voting rights and (2) fluency/functionality is massive.
Which takes us back to the "non English speaking registered voter numbers are tiny".

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So you disagree with the vast majority of pollsters and political consultants. That's fine, and I respect your opinion. How about a friendly wager on the ultimate Hispanic vote?

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Which would be determined [since we have private voting] solely by post-voting polling by the exact same people?

LOL will pass on that nonsense.

FYI……look at how the better polling groups treat their True Ups. More importantly, how Language isn't among the criteria.

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Pollsters I know and trust, including Trump's primary pollsters, factor in language and poll at least partially in Spanish.

You don't trust exit polling? It has its flaws but by and large it always has been informative.

BTW RNC has Trump down double digits with Hispanics.

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Trust exit polling? For what?
Predicting a winner. Sure. Being precise on voting patterns of subgroups of subgroups. Not even remotely.
Informative? Nice imprecise word for a process that is supposed to create clarity.

A pollster's precision is tied directly to the depth of data and the True Up process. Most polling groups have horrid methodology.

You are frankensteining your argument. Harris could crush SoCal Latinos thus winning National Latino vote but still lose Latino vote in Arizona & Pennsylvania [which is what matters]. Your fallacy is the same one continually found with polling of AA…..an assumption that voting patterns follow linear increase/decrease. And then shoehorning specific [poorly collected and processed] polling data into that assumption.

If you want a real complaint start looking into the many problems of Marquette and Quinnipiac using student pollsters.
Look at YouGov using such unrepresentative raw data that no amount of correction methodology can really correct it.
Look at MSNBC for anything and everything……..2020 last pre-voting poll was Biden +15.

You are building a straw man and your argument is totally lacking in connectivity.

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Funny, I agree with everything you just said except your view exit polling isn't informative on subgroups - and of course I disagree with your view on my arguments …..

You certainly don't have to convince me that some polls are flawed. But I studied polling in grad school and worked campaigns for many years, so still largely find them accurate overall.

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Want to convince me? Specific poll from specific state. Be prepared on methodology.

But global statements have little value.

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I'm not sure what you mean. Are you asking me how exit polling works?

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Nice try to divert and demean.

Even exit polling has methodology to insure certain political parties, ethnicities, ages, geographic areas, etc. are neither under nor over sampled. Raw data is easily manipulated.

But if you are what you claim, you know that reality and are simply being obtuse.
You steadfastly refuse to discuss details and simply lob bombs.
Constantly retyping polling is reliable doesn't make your right. It simply makes you repetitive.

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You totally misinterpreted my response. No intent to demean. You're a good poster. I truly thought perhaps that's what you were asking.

What details are you asking for?

And I'm not sure what you are arguing. Do you think polls are not reliable? If so, pre-election, exit, or both. Or are you just saying some pollsters are unreliable?

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Go retread that repetitive loop with someone else.

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What has happened to you, man?

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Sombear knows more than the mighty Oz

Does anyone know who gave the order to stop counting on Election night 2020?

Realitybites said:

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Does anyone know who gave the order to stop counting on Election night 2020?

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Do you think that?
Nobody did..
Cant worry about 2020

New PENNSYLVANIA poll by Emerson College with @RealClearPA

🟥 Trump: 49%
🟦 Harris: 48%

With leans
🟥 Trump: 51%
🟦 Harris: 49%

#9 (2.9/3.0) | 8/13-14 | 1,000 LV | ±3%https://t.co/jfvxAeiTwL pic.twitter.com/sQfZ4Ki0Df

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 16, 2024

Another Trump poll..

Thats at least 4 this week

Scott Rasmussen was founder of ESPN and Rasmussen Repirts. Now, he's returned to independent polling.

Breaking: Presidential race swings 6 points in two weeks, catapulting Trump back to lead and ending Harris surge https://t.co/gPkF8VmMl8

— John Solomon (@jsolomonReports) August 16, 2024

America is a Constitutional Republic. pic.twitter.com/bL0ula1mJ8

— (Jason) Stands For Truth (@TrueJMitchell) August 15, 2024

This guy gets it.

Still within the marketing of fraud but encouraging nonetheless. PA is the killshot. Trump wins PA, Harris is left with untenable scenarios.

New PENNSYLVANIA poll by Emerson College with @RealClearPA

🟥 Trump: 49%
🟦 Harris: 48%

With leans
🟥 Trump: 51%
🟦 Harris: 49%

#9 (2.9/3.0) | 8/13-14 | 1,000 LV | ±3%https://t.co/jfvxAeiTwL pic.twitter.com/sQfZ4Ki0Df

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 16, 2024

Today's update. 2nd straight mediocre polling day for Harris. In the range where it could be noise, but her lead in our national polling average has been trimmed to 2.4 points from 3.1.https://t.co/vsGVG18HHI pic.twitter.com/r5rf4hLPa4

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 16, 2024

Welp....what's another trillion to the national debt.

JUST IN: Kamala Harris has proposed elimination of medical debt for millions of Americans

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) August 16, 2024

Looked up the poll averages by week from RCP since July:


Week # polls Harris Trump Avg. range
Aug 8-14 5 47.4 46.8 Harris + 0.6
Aug 1-7 9 48.22 47.0 Harris +1.22
Jul 25-31 6 46.33 47.17 Trump +0.84
Jul 18-24 12 46.08 48.08 Trump +2.0
Jul 11-17 3 45.67 47.33 Trump +1.66
Jul 4-10 5 47.0 48.2 Trump +1.2
Jun 28-Jul 3 4 44.25 46.25 Trump +2.0


Harris had a bump, but it appears to be fading now

Also, thirteen of the polls have only published once since Harris became the de facto nominee.

Unless something unexpected happens in the next few months I think election night is going to be a long one to determine the winner

Oldbear83 said:

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Looked up the poll averages by week from RCP since July:


Week # polls Harris Trump Avg. range
Aug 8-14 5 47.4 46.8 Harris + 0.6
Aug 1-7 9 48.22 47.0 Harris +1.22
Jul 25-31 6 46.33 47.17 Trump +0.84
Jul 18-24 12 46.08 48.08 Trump +2.0
Jul 11-17 3 45.67 47.33 Trump +1.66
Jul 4-10 5 47.0 48.2 Trump +1.2
Jun 28-Jul 3 4 44.25 46.25 Trump +2.0


Harris had a bump, but it appears to be fading now

Also, thirteen of the polls have only published once since Harris became the de facto nominee.

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they may not publish again until the week of or after the convention to try and hold the bump or grab a second one

Shortest political ad I've ever seen 🤣 pic.twitter.com/l8T2pHU4Cz

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) August 16, 2024

Brilliant, use the video!

#New Polling average - @washingtonpost

Michigan - 🔴 Trump <1
Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +3
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
Georgia - 🔴 Trump +4
Pennsylvania - 🔵 Harris +1
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris +2 pic.twitter.com/s6wNu8pkBk

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 16, 2024

Trump prepares for debate with help from Tulsi...NYT

Quote:

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Former President Donald J. Trump has begun preparing for his debate with Vice President Kamala Harris and has brought in the former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard to help sharpen his attacks in a recent practice session at his private club and home, Mar-a-Lago, according to two people with knowledge of Mr. Trump's schedule.

Ms. Gabbard, who left the Democratic Party after her 2020 presidential run and has rebranded herself as a celebrity among Trump's base of support, has long been friendly with Mr. Trump and was briefly considered to be his running mate. But her involvement in Mr. Trump's debate preparation, which has not previously been reported, was partly because of her own performance in a 2019 Democratic presidential primary debate, when Ms. Gabbard eviscerated Ms. Harris in a memorable onstage encounter.

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boognish_bear said:

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Unless something unexpected happens in the next few months I think election night is going to be a long one to determine the winner

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That's part of the fascist strategy. It makes it easier for them to "discover" another 10-20k ballots that had been "overlooked", always in the key swing states & always 100% for the Dem candidate.

4th and Inches said:

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Shortest political ad I've ever seen 🤣 pic.twitter.com/l8T2pHU4Cz

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) August 16, 2024

Brilliant, use the video!

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It is brilliant because we all know it's true and who is to blame.

Tulsi might be in his cabinet.

Aliceinbubbleland said:

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Trump prepares for debate with help from Tulsi...NYT

Quote:

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Former President Donald J. Trump has begun preparing for his debate with Vice President Kamala Harris and has brought in the former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard to help sharpen his attacks in a recent practice session at his private club and home, Mar-a-Lago, according to two people with knowledge of Mr. Trump's schedule.

Ms. Gabbard, who left the Democratic Party after her 2020 presidential run and has rebranded herself as a celebrity among Trump's base of support, has long been friendly with Mr. Trump and was briefly considered to be his running mate. But her involvement in Mr. Trump's debate preparation, which has not previously been reported, was partly because of her own performance in a 2019 Democratic presidential primary debate, when Ms. Gabbard eviscerated Ms. Harris in a memorable onstage encounter.

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another positive move by Trump

Lets see how well he listens

4th and Inches said:

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Aliceinbubbleland said:

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Trump prepares for debate with help from Tulsi...NYT

Quote:

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Former President Donald J. Trump has begun preparing for his debate with Vice President Kamala Harris and has brought in the former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard to help sharpen his attacks in a recent practice session at his private club and home, Mar-a-Lago, according to two people with knowledge of Mr. Trump's schedule.

Ms. Gabbard, who left the Democratic Party after her 2020 presidential run and has rebranded herself as a celebrity among Trump's base of support, has long been friendly with Mr. Trump and was briefly considered to be his running mate. But her involvement in Mr. Trump's debate preparation, which has not previously been reported, was partly because of her own performance in a 2019 Democratic presidential primary debate, when Ms. Gabbard eviscerated Ms. Harris in a memorable onstage encounter.

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another positive move by Trump

Lets see how well he listens

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He is making good moves. The latest spot on inflation is great. Can he control his mouth? Can he keep the NYer in him under control? It is tough, I know from experience, things I say and do thinking they are joking around are not taking that way in the Central US. A NY joke, ends up having Texans or Midwesterners appalled.

Amazing what kind of magic can happen when you suddenly need votes

Border arrests drop 33% to a 46-month low in July after asylum restrictions take hold https://t.co/G93jsJfSWe

— The Associated Press (@AP) August 16, 2024

boognish_bear said:

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Trump: When we gave her the Presidential Medal of Freedom… It’s the equivalent of the Congressional Medal of Honor— it’s actually much better because everyone who gets the Congressional Medal, they’re soldiers. They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many… pic.twitter.com/a766KxAC2e

— Acyn (@Acyn) August 16, 2024

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VFW was not happy with Trump's comments on the Medal of Honor last night

Jack Bauer said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Amazing what kind of magic can happen when you suddenly need votes

Border arrests drop 33% to a 46-month low in July after asylum restrictions take hold https://t.co/G93jsJfSWe

— The Associated Press (@AP) August 16, 2024

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46 months ago was....<check notes> ...October 2020, right before Biden won the election. What a coincidence.

It only took him 3.75 years to figure out the issue.

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The issue was there were no elections coming up

TenBears said:

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sombear said:

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boognish_bear said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Trump: When we gave her the Presidential Medal of Freedom… It’s the equivalent of the Congressional Medal of Honor— it’s actually much better because everyone who gets the Congressional Medal, they’re soldiers. They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many… pic.twitter.com/a766KxAC2e

— Acyn (@Acyn) August 16, 2024

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VFW was not happy with Trump's comments on the Medal of Honor last night

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So much for message discipline and truly one of the worst things he's said. Idiot.

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The guy is just one of the worst people ever. Pond scum.

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Well, he says what he believes. The Viet Nam era has a different, negative view of the military. My Dad did his 2 years during Cuban Missile Crisis. Got an Honorable Discharge. He thinks the military is awful, untrustworthy, and elitist. He was pissed when I enlisted. He is a contemporary of Trump from NYC. Not everyone thinks the military is great and honorable. Can't project your believes on others, a lesson I took a long time to learn. People do not always react like you think they should.

Respecting and honoring the military should be as easy as breathing for Republican candidates....I don't get it with him

Jack Bauer said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Amazing what kind of magic can happen when you suddenly need votes

Border arrests drop 33% to a 46-month low in July after asylum restrictions take hold https://t.co/G93jsJfSWe

— The Associated Press (@AP) August 16, 2024

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46 months ago was....<check notes> ...October 2020, right before Biden won the election. What a coincidence.

It only took him 3.75 years to figure out the issue.

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The rest of us knew immediately. The real crime this proves is that the government could have been enforcing the border laws for the last 4 years and we wouldn't have the catastrophe we now have. The fascists did it all deliberately.