As I said, I am not validating the source. Based on that and other articles on NV getting an influx of CA Conservatives and my Uncle with his Navy buddies moving there from CA saying the same thing. I said it was viable that it was not a polling anomaly.whiterock said:article uses the word "add" in ways that can mislead.FLBear5630 said:Adriacus Peratuun said:Or some pollsters use questionable methodology which inherently leads to erroneous results.FLBear5630 said:Ok, there is something nefarious going on. That is really what you want.Adriacus Peratuun said:No, it isn't.FLBear5630 said:Check the numbers. Perfectly plausible, CA is a ****-show, they are losing a ton.Adriacus Peratuun said:FLBear5630 said:NV has a strong influx of CA Conservatives, my Uncle former Navy P3 Orion Nav and his buddies all moved there. Think ID light...Adriacus Peratuun said:How many times in the last 50 years has Nevada voted to the right of Arizona.boognish_bear said:#New @SienaResearch General Election poll
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 18, 2024
Arizona - π΅ Harris +5
North Carolina - π΅ Harris +2
Nevada - π΄ Trump +1
Georgia - π΄ Trump +4
Siena #A+ - 650 LV (Each) - 8/15
That one item screams the polling is nonsense.
Based on 2020 results it would require Net 100,000 likely Republican voters moving into Nevada over less than four years to reach Arizona 2020 voting %. Not impossible but highly unlikely. Nevada has several factors that have helped Trump but inbound migration simply isn't enough people to shift it that far.
A far more plausible likelihood is that the polls are wrong.
NEVADA: 2020 Census
When total growth is under 100,000
Less the number that are not voter eligible
Less the number that are eligible but not registered to vote
Less the number eligible to vote but not leaning Republican.
Not perfectly plausible.
I just read an article on this. Specifically what is happening in n AZ and NV. I am not saying the source is good or not. Just that it seems to be plausible.
Matches what my Uncle has said
https://investors.redfin.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1155/arizona-and-nevada-have-lost-tens-of-thousands-of
Nationally, there is a slight long-term trend of GOP increasing its share of registrations and Dems declining, with the two parties near parity. The big winner, though, is independents. Lots of people see crazy on both sides (woke vs Trump) and are checking out - independents tend to be drama averse, not consumed by politics the way partisans are. In time, new candidates (on both sides) will likely claw some share back from independents. (the percentages involved in this analysis are not large, barely statistically noteworthy.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/the-partisanship-and-ideology-of-american-voters/
Within that overall dynamic, conservatives are leaving blue states for places like Tx, FL, etc..... Tx GOP tracks voter trends closely, and it indicates that in-migrants to Tx from blue states are voting more red than Texas itself, so the dynamic is a positive one (for Tx, at least) and it would seem reasonable to presume that is the same effect in AZ, NV, etc....
It could be the other way too, as a lot of Dems are leaving CA and going to NV. It will be interesting to see.
