2024

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whiterock
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In reply to Osodecentx • 8:38p, 9/15/24
Osodecentx said:
FLBear5630 said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?


Why? She is feeling emboldened. Scary man was not so scary.

Meanwhile Trump and Vance are stuck on Summerfield stories that are being debunked daily. Smells like a set-up, as usual Trump took the bait and will not let it go.

Dems are having fun. They have him talking about stuff that has nothing to do with the issues. When will he not take the bait.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/15/us/harris-trump-election
Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio, a Republican, said in an interview on ABC News that the claim that migrants in Springfield, Ohio, were eating pets was "a piece of garbage that was simply not true."

Of course he would say that. To admit it makes him look bad It's Kemp/Raffensberger 2.0
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whiterock
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8:39p, 9/15/24
Oh my…..
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J.R.
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In reply to whiterock • 8:57p, 9/15/24
whiterock said:
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
J.R. said:
ok, all you posters that post rando tweets from people know one has heard of ...why? I just don't get taking some rando whack job that has computer access and you people think is is all gospel. Help me here. I just do not understand.

Red state and CNN are "rando whack jobs"?
didn't answer the basic question

LOL yes, I did. YOU didn't.
don't know what you mean about red states, but I can generally take most on CNN, unlike CNBC and Foxy. My question that I posed, which you did not answer is....why in the world would someone post a rando tweet from some internet jockey that no-one has ever heard of? Don't get it.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 9:08p, 9/15/24
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?
Two reasons: One, to show confidence after a good debate. Two, she knows she'll win again.
That's historically not true. And if you look back at the debate and listen to the focus groups, Harris failed to win over the groups she needed.

Go back to 2016. The media told us Clinton wiped the floor with Trump, but in retrospect Trump did a better job of messaging, especially in speaking to battleground-state voters.

The polls, forecasts, and betting markets show she gained voters.
No, the forecasts and betting markets are based on the polls, which say a variety of things.

The polls which show a gain for Harris do not show she gained support from undecided voters, but instead energized her base.

Reuters, for instance, said Harris won the debate but did not convince undecideds.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/some-undecided-voters-not-convinced-by-harris-after-debate-with-trump-2024-09-11/

CNN said essentially the same thing, that Harris won the debate on style but did not answer the questions undecideds wanted answered.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/11/politics/debate-reaction-persuadable-voters/index.html

Same story from the New York Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/politics/undecided-voters-react-debate.html

And NBC put it well - Voters gave Harris a look after the debate, but not a commitment.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/undecided-voters-give-harris-look-not-commitment-debate-rcna170454




You may want that to be true, bottomline is Harris has closed the gap and is in a strong position going forward. Hearing GOP rewrite history is frustrating. Everyone was pissed at how poorly Trump did, now he won?? I guess if he says it enough it becomes true.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/11/harris-biden-debate-winner-takeaways-00178442

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/debates/who-won-trump-harris-presidential-debate/

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-builds-lead-over-trump-voters-see-her-debate-winner-reutersipsos-poll-2024-09-12/

Trump has no answer to Harris, he better get won.

Only your sources are real, right?
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4th and Inches
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 9:25p, 9/15/24
FLBear5630 said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?


Why? She is feeling emboldened. Scary man was not so scary.

Meanwhile Trump and Vance are stuck on Summerfield stories that are being debunked daily. Smells like a set-up, as usual Trump took the bait and will not let it go.

Dems are having fun. They have him talking about stuff that has nothing to do with the issues. When will he not take the bait.
dude, she sucked wind so bad in her 5 question interview in PA that Trump used it uncut as a campaign ad!

She got all the smoke she could handle, but she didnt fail like she did in the follow up PA interview. The debate is a win for her just for that, throwing bait at him on the nonsense to keep him off policy was smart so kudos to whomever thought of that..

New algebra needed after today though.. trump tweeting dumb sht about Swift and then the second assntion attempt
β€œThe Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
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4th and Inches
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 9:28p, 9/15/24
FLBear5630 said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?
Two reasons: One, to show confidence after a good debate. Two, she knows she'll win again.
That's historically not true. And if you look back at the debate and listen to the focus groups, Harris failed to win over the groups she needed.

Go back to 2016. The media told us Clinton wiped the floor with Trump, but in retrospect Trump did a better job of messaging, especially in speaking to battleground-state voters.

The polls, forecasts, and betting markets show she gained voters.
No, the forecasts and betting markets are based on the polls, which say a variety of things.

The polls which show a gain for Harris do not show she gained support from undecided voters, but instead energized her base.

Reuters, for instance, said Harris won the debate but did not convince undecideds.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/some-undecided-voters-not-convinced-by-harris-after-debate-with-trump-2024-09-11/

CNN said essentially the same thing, that Harris won the debate on style but did not answer the questions undecideds wanted answered.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/11/politics/debate-reaction-persuadable-voters/index.html

Same story from the New York Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/politics/undecided-voters-react-debate.html

And NBC put it well - Voters gave Harris a look after the debate, but not a commitment.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/undecided-voters-give-harris-look-not-commitment-debate-rcna170454




You may want that to be true, bottomline is Harris has closed the gap and is in a strong position going forward. Hearing GOP rewrite history is frustrating. Everyone was pissed at how poorly Trump did, now he won?? I guess if he says it enough it becomes true.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/11/harris-biden-debate-winner-takeaways-00178442

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/debates/who-won-trump-harris-presidential-debate/

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-builds-lead-over-trump-voters-see-her-debate-winner-reutersipsos-poll-2024-09-12/

Trump has no answer to Harris, he better get won.

Only your sources are real, right?
ugh, politico is like quoting the DNC. Reuters has some street cred though. Their polling is ok but not top tier.
β€œThe Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
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Oldbear83
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 9:44p, 9/15/24
Sounds like you did not do well in Critical Thinking.

One more time - it's true Trump did not do as well in the debate as we would have liked.

However, Harris failed to speak to her target, and while she is getting a bump, the landscape, what she needs to win in the battleground states, that did not happen.

If it makes you feel better, you can say Trump got lucky Harris once again failed to deliver a message on policy. But the fact remains that Harris gained a bump, not a strategic advantage, and this is a point which will matter in the remaining weeks.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 5:36a, 9/16/24
4th and Inches said:
FLBear5630 said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?
Two reasons: One, to show confidence after a good debate. Two, she knows she'll win again.
That's historically not true. And if you look back at the debate and listen to the focus groups, Harris failed to win over the groups she needed.

Go back to 2016. The media told us Clinton wiped the floor with Trump, but in retrospect Trump did a better job of messaging, especially in speaking to battleground-state voters.

The polls, forecasts, and betting markets show she gained voters.
No, the forecasts and betting markets are based on the polls, which say a variety of things.

The polls which show a gain for Harris do not show she gained support from undecided voters, but instead energized her base.

Reuters, for instance, said Harris won the debate but did not convince undecideds.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/some-undecided-voters-not-convinced-by-harris-after-debate-with-trump-2024-09-11/

CNN said essentially the same thing, that Harris won the debate on style but did not answer the questions undecideds wanted answered.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/11/politics/debate-reaction-persuadable-voters/index.html

Same story from the New York Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/politics/undecided-voters-react-debate.html

And NBC put it well - Voters gave Harris a look after the debate, but not a commitment.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/undecided-voters-give-harris-look-not-commitment-debate-rcna170454




You may want that to be true, bottomline is Harris has closed the gap and is in a strong position going forward. Hearing GOP rewrite history is frustrating. Everyone was pissed at how poorly Trump did, now he won?? I guess if he says it enough it becomes true.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/11/harris-biden-debate-winner-takeaways-00178442

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/debates/who-won-trump-harris-presidential-debate/

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-builds-lead-over-trump-voters-see-her-debate-winner-reutersipsos-poll-2024-09-12/

Trump has no answer to Harris, he better get won.

Only your sources are real, right?
ugh, politico is like quoting the DNC. Reuters has some street cred though. Their polling is ok but not top tier.


Baylor Alumni Message Board represents .00099% of population.

Remember the Seinfeld, George did 180 degrees what he thought. That applies here. If Oldbear has an analysis, go 180 degrees against. If Taylor Swift says she won, she won. Bizarro world, but that is what Social Media did.

That 20 year old idiot that lives and voted by Taylor Swift's vote counts as much as OldBear's. Politico carries more weight in the Northeast elites than Fox. My daughter lives in Boston, sig other goes to MIT. Their spheres of influence tell them Harris kicked ass. We are not the norm, quite the contrary.
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whiterock
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In reply to J.R. • 5:51a, 9/16/24
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
J.R. said:
ok, all you posters that post rando tweets from people know one has heard of ...why? I just don't get taking some rando whack job that has computer access and you people think is is all gospel. Help me here. I just do not understand.

Red state and CNN are "rando whack jobs"?
didn't answer the basic question

LOL yes, I did. YOU didn't.
don't know what you mean about red states, but I can generally take most on CNN, unlike CNBC and Foxy. My question that I posed, which you did not answer is....why in the world would someone post a rando tweet from some internet jockey that no-one has ever heard of? Don't get it.
well, for starters, RedState is not some random internet jockey. It's a main-stream conservative blog that's been around for a couple of decades. It's co-founder, Ben Domenech (also publishes "The Transom," which has tens of thousands of subscribers) is one of the brighter minds on the right who has gone neverTrumper in no small part (I'm sure) due to the fact that he's married to Megan McCain. It's now owned by Salem Media group, a company with $250m/yr in revenues.

So who's the random whack job here?
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whiterock
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 5:53a, 9/16/24
4th and Inches said:
FLBear5630 said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?


Why? She is feeling emboldened. Scary man was not so scary.

Meanwhile Trump and Vance are stuck on Summerfield stories that are being debunked daily. Smells like a set-up, as usual Trump took the bait and will not let it go.

Dems are having fun. They have him talking about stuff that has nothing to do with the issues. When will he not take the bait.
dude, she sucked wind so bad in her 5 question interview in PA that Trump used it uncut as a campaign ad!

She got all the smoke she could handle, but she didnt fail like she did in the follow up PA interview. The debate is a win for her just for that, throwing bait at him on the nonsense to keep him off policy was smart so kudos to whomever thought of that..

New algebra needed after today though.. trump tweeting dumb sht about Swift and then the second assntion attempt
are you saying the Swifties sent someone to try to shoot Trump?

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9:47a, 9/16/24










β€œIncline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
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9:49a, 9/16/24










β€œIncline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
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4th and Inches
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 3:03p, 9/16/24
FLBear5630 said:
4th and Inches said:
FLBear5630 said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?
Two reasons: One, to show confidence after a good debate. Two, she knows she'll win again.
That's historically not true. And if you look back at the debate and listen to the focus groups, Harris failed to win over the groups she needed.

Go back to 2016. The media told us Clinton wiped the floor with Trump, but in retrospect Trump did a better job of messaging, especially in speaking to battleground-state voters.

The polls, forecasts, and betting markets show she gained voters.
No, the forecasts and betting markets are based on the polls, which say a variety of things.

The polls which show a gain for Harris do not show she gained support from undecided voters, but instead energized her base.

Reuters, for instance, said Harris won the debate but did not convince undecideds.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/some-undecided-voters-not-convinced-by-harris-after-debate-with-trump-2024-09-11/

CNN said essentially the same thing, that Harris won the debate on style but did not answer the questions undecideds wanted answered.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/11/politics/debate-reaction-persuadable-voters/index.html

Same story from the New York Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/politics/undecided-voters-react-debate.html

And NBC put it well - Voters gave Harris a look after the debate, but not a commitment.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/undecided-voters-give-harris-look-not-commitment-debate-rcna170454




You may want that to be true, bottomline is Harris has closed the gap and is in a strong position going forward. Hearing GOP rewrite history is frustrating. Everyone was pissed at how poorly Trump did, now he won?? I guess if he says it enough it becomes true.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/11/harris-biden-debate-winner-takeaways-00178442

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/debates/who-won-trump-harris-presidential-debate/

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-builds-lead-over-trump-voters-see-her-debate-winner-reutersipsos-poll-2024-09-12/

Trump has no answer to Harris, he better get won.

Only your sources are real, right?
ugh, politico is like quoting the DNC. Reuters has some street cred though. Their polling is ok but not top tier.


Baylor Alumni Message Board represents .00099% of population.

Remember the Seinfeld, George did 180 degrees what he thought. That applies here. If Oldbear has an analysis, go 180 degrees against. If Taylor Swift says she won, she won. Bizarro world, but that is what Social Media did.

That 20 year old idiot that lives and voted by Taylor Swift's vote counts as much as OldBear's. Politico carries more weight in the Northeast elites than Fox. My daughter lives in Boston, sig other goes to MIT. Their spheres of influence tell them Harris kicked ass. We are not the norm, quite the contrary.
in those circles she won. Look at the latest registration numbers out of PA.. GOP out registered Dems by 4k voters. Swift had no impact and the debate really didnt either.

The economy and immigration will be the big players on this vote.
β€œThe Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
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4:28p, 9/16/24
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Osodecentx
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 4:48p, 9/16/24
Redbrickbear said:


What did the guy post? There have been bad actors who posted their intent and then followed through on it

I couldn't tell from the video what the guy posted
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FLBear5630
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 5:39p, 9/16/24
4th and Inches said:
FLBear5630 said:
4th and Inches said:
FLBear5630 said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?
Two reasons: One, to show confidence after a good debate. Two, she knows she'll win again.
That's historically not true. And if you look back at the debate and listen to the focus groups, Harris failed to win over the groups she needed.

Go back to 2016. The media told us Clinton wiped the floor with Trump, but in retrospect Trump did a better job of messaging, especially in speaking to battleground-state voters.

The polls, forecasts, and betting markets show she gained voters.
No, the forecasts and betting markets are based on the polls, which say a variety of things.

The polls which show a gain for Harris do not show she gained support from undecided voters, but instead energized her base.

Reuters, for instance, said Harris won the debate but did not convince undecideds.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/some-undecided-voters-not-convinced-by-harris-after-debate-with-trump-2024-09-11/

CNN said essentially the same thing, that Harris won the debate on style but did not answer the questions undecideds wanted answered.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/11/politics/debate-reaction-persuadable-voters/index.html

Same story from the New York Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/politics/undecided-voters-react-debate.html

And NBC put it well - Voters gave Harris a look after the debate, but not a commitment.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/undecided-voters-give-harris-look-not-commitment-debate-rcna170454




You may want that to be true, bottomline is Harris has closed the gap and is in a strong position going forward. Hearing GOP rewrite history is frustrating. Everyone was pissed at how poorly Trump did, now he won?? I guess if he says it enough it becomes true.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/11/harris-biden-debate-winner-takeaways-00178442

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/debates/who-won-trump-harris-presidential-debate/

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-builds-lead-over-trump-voters-see-her-debate-winner-reutersipsos-poll-2024-09-12/

Trump has no answer to Harris, he better get won.

Only your sources are real, right?
ugh, politico is like quoting the DNC. Reuters has some street cred though. Their polling is ok but not top tier.


Baylor Alumni Message Board represents .00099% of population.

Remember the Seinfeld, George did 180 degrees what he thought. That applies here. If Oldbear has an analysis, go 180 degrees against. If Taylor Swift says she won, she won. Bizarro world, but that is what Social Media did.

That 20 year old idiot that lives and voted by Taylor Swift's vote counts as much as OldBear's. Politico carries more weight in the Northeast elites than Fox. My daughter lives in Boston, sig other goes to MIT. Their spheres of influence tell them Harris kicked ass. We are not the norm, quite the contrary.
in those circles she won. Look at the latest registration numbers out of PA.. GOP out registered Dems by 4k voters. Swift had no impact and the debate really didnt either.

The economy and immigration will be the big players on this vote.
We will see. Great things about elections, those that were right and wrong will be shown. If people remember...
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7:58p, 9/16/24
Bad Suffolk PA poll for Trump - down 3.
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Jack Bauer
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8:05p, 9/16/24
I was told our economy was the "envy of the world"

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In reply to sombear • 8:51p, 9/16/24
sombear said:
Bad Suffolk PA poll for Trump - down 3.


No, debate and Swift had no effect. Must be bad poll. Fake news.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 8:52p, 9/16/24
FLBear5630 said:
sombear said:
Bad Suffolk PA poll for Trump - down 3.


No, debate and Swift had no effect. Our Board members told us. Must be bad poll. Fake news.
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historian
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 8:58p, 9/16/24
It's worse than that: the FBI has become very corrupt, targeting people for their political beliefs and rigging elections. They are called the Gestapo for a reason.
β€œIncline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
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Osodecentx
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9:31p, 9/16/24
The latest grift;

On its official X and Telegram accounts, World Liberty Financial has said the project aims to drive "mass adoption of stablecoins," a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a constant value of $1. One person briefed on the project described it as similar to an existing service called Instadapp, an application that allows users to manage their investments across a range of crypto platforms.

Several members of the Trump family have roles in the business, according to a list of team members included in the white paper. Mr. Trump's title is "Chief Crypto Advocate." Barron Trump, his 18-year-old son, is listed as the project's "DeFi Visionary," a reference to the branch of crypto known as decentralized finance. Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. are each described as a "Web3 Ambassador."
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Jack Bauer
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9:55p, 9/16/24
Imagine this woman deciding what you can and cannot say..."to save democracy"

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historian
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 10:18p, 9/16/24
Put Hillary in jail for her real crimes. Then remind her that the First Amendment protects free speech, even if she thinks it's "misinformation" and that the greatest sources of actual misinformation are Dem politicians like herself and their allies in the media.
β€œIncline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 10:30p, 9/16/24
Jack Bauer said:
Imagine this woman deciding what you can and cannot say..."to save democracy"



She has been anti-free speech for a long time..

[But long before Donald Trump became a one-man media-distraction machine, Hillary Clinton had mastered the art of pushing maximally against free expression without being tagged as a foe of the First Amendment, unlike her friend and anti-media collaborator Tipper Gore. Clinton has crusaded against not just "gangsta" rap (the scare quotes are hers), but also the "poison" spread by movies, television, and video games. Her record includes not just Gore-like Capitol Hill condemnations of content and agitation for parental warning labels, but also unconstitutional legislation mandating federal punishment for those who sell and market controversial entertainment.

She has consistently backed government intrusions into communications devices, from content-filtering V-chips on television sets to anti-encryption back doors on iPhones. She has established as her litmus test for Supreme Court nominees a commitment to overturn 2010's Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, in which a 54 majority overturned on grounds that "the censorship we now confront is vast in its reach" a federally enforced cable TV ban of a documentary film attacking a certain politician named Hillary Rodham Clinton. Several other laws that Clinton championed, including the Communications Decency Act (CDA) and the Child Online Protection Act (COPA), were opposed by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and struck down by the Supreme Court as violations of the First Amendment. And she has grasped the flimsiest reeds of evidence to lay at least partial blame on artistic expression for everything from playground fighting styles to the Columbine massacre to, most infamously, the murder of four U.S. personnel in Libya.

How has Clinton preserved a solid reputation among creative professionals despite such a shaky record on speech? Largely because the industries in her critical crosshairsHollywood, Silicon Valley, gaminglean overwhelmingly Democratic, and Democrats care more about defeating Republicans and defending core progressive issues than having to fend off sporadic state meddling into their workplaces.]

https://reason.com/2016/02/03/hail-to-the-censor/

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Realitybites
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5:40a, 9/17/24
Measures of Control

https://darkfutura.substack.com/p/measures-of-control?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#media-cc4d0ab3-e24e-4cb8-8cf1-dfccb8618d47
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7:46a, 9/17/24
Tucker Carlson/Charlie Kirk Interview

Link to Video
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 9:50a, 9/17/24
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
they hit in 2020 and 2022. The cross tabs are wild each rime but they have a winning method.


Trump lost the debate badly. Will probably cost him the election unless something dramatic occurs within the next few weeks.

yes and no.

always read Sean Trende. He's pretty much saying what I've been saying - yeah, debate coaches will call the debate a clear Harris win. But she's not getting much of a bounce from it, perhaps because she didn't really need to win the debates on points. She needed to persuade Americans to vote for her. Appears she did not do much to help her in that regard.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/did-harris-really-get-the-debate-she-needed
Trende is one of my favorites, but this article is dated. 8 post-debate polls have Harris winning the debate 2-1 and Harris gaining ground. She is ahead 3 to 6 points, and increased her lead in every poll.

The only polls to the contrary are Rasmussen and Atlas (Brazilian).

All the forecasters have Harris as the favorite except Silver, and even he has Trump's lead shrinking.

Betting markets moved to Harris.

This may or may not be sustained, but we cannot deny that Harris won the debate and helped herself.
the outliers are the more correct pollsters. TIPP has been correct in the past but went all online.
In this day and age, polls have good years and bad years, including some awful years.

But I'm still old school. Generally speaking, if the vast majority of polls say something, they likely are right at least at that point in time.
That needs specifics. Keep in mind, for example, that aggregators do not count all the same polls. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin use different polls for their sites, for example.

You should also consider what is being said. CNN, for example, said voters they asked thought Harris won the debate, but Trump gained support on the top two issues among those same voters.

Never just go by the headline. You have to look at the details to get the facts.


All true.

But there have been 10 post-debate polls. 8 of them have Harris improving her position and up 3 to 6 points.

In my view, those are probably accurate, and Rasmussen and the Brazilian form are the outliers. And BTW Rasmussen has Trump up only 2 and in prior polls had him up 3 to 5.

So you're not familiar with the concept of a poll bump. In any case, you missed my last point. Look at the weighting, and what different demographic groups say.

If nothing else, if Harris did so well, why is it Harris who immediately wanted another debate?
Why did Trump immediately want another debate after his first with Biden?
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J.R.
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In reply to whiterock • 10:00a, 9/17/24
whiterock said:
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
J.R. said:
ok, all you posters that post rando tweets from people know one has heard of ...why? I just don't get taking some rando whack job that has computer access and you people think is is all gospel. Help me here. I just do not understand.

Red state and CNN are "rando whack jobs"?
didn't answer the basic question

LOL yes, I did. YOU didn't.
don't know what you mean about red states, but I can generally take most on CNN, unlike CNBC and Foxy. My question that I posed, which you did not answer is....why in the world would someone post a rando tweet from some internet jockey that no-one has ever heard of? Don't get it.
well, for starters, RedState is not some random internet jockey. It's a main-stream conservative blog that's been around for a couple of decades. It's co-founder, Ben Domenech (also publishes "The Transom," which has tens of thousands of subscribers) is one of the brighter minds on the right who has gone neverTrumper in no small part (I'm sure) due to the fact that he's married to Megan McCain. It's now owned by Salem Media group, a company with $250m/yr in revenues.

So who's the random whack job here?
you. I don't have time to get into rando crap no-one knows about, hence lack of credibility
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10:12a, 9/17/24
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In reply to whiterock • 10:51a, 9/17/24
whiterock said:
In fairness, GOP-leaning polls were way off in 2020 as well.

And if you look at state poll aggregates from 2020, they were not too bad.

The biggest concern for Trump right now is the sheer number of polls showing him down after the debate.
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Jacques Strap
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11:03a, 9/17/24
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In reply to Bestweekeverr • 11:16a, 9/17/24
I don't recall he did. He did say if there was a second it should be on Fox, but that was making a point about CNN, not looking for a rematch.

And let's not forget all of Harris's demands and conditions for debate.

A level playing field is anathema to her.
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In reply to J.R. • 11:17a, 9/17/24
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
J.R. said:
ok, all you posters that post rando tweets from people know one has heard of ...why? I just don't get taking some rando whack job that has computer access and you people think is is all gospel. Help me here. I just do not understand.

Red state and CNN are "rando whack jobs"?
didn't answer the basic question

LOL yes, I did. YOU didn't.
don't know what you mean about red states, but I can generally take most on CNN, unlike CNBC and Foxy. My question that I posed, which you did not answer is....why in the world would someone post a rando tweet from some internet jockey that no-one has ever heard of? Don't get it.
well, for starters, RedState is not some random internet jockey. It's a main-stream conservative blog that's been around for a couple of decades. It's co-founder, Ben Domenech (also publishes "The Transom," which has tens of thousands of subscribers) is one of the brighter minds on the right who has gone neverTrumper in no small part (I'm sure) due to the fact that he's married to Megan McCain. It's now owned by Salem Media group, a company with $250m/yr in revenues.

So who's the random whack job here?
you. I don't have time to get into rando crap no-one knows about, hence lack of credibility


JR pretending to be the authority on credibility ...

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boognish_bear
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11:36a, 9/17/24
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