MAGA hasn't campaigned much to win Congress. They seem more intent on Taylor Swift and cats.
If we have a repeat of 2018 you can expect Supreme Court shakeup.
I read all publicly available polling data, including tabs.Oldbear83 said:
I continue to be amused by how many people don't read much more than the headline.
Of course, these are also usually people who think polls count as real news ...
I'm very credible. I don't not post on subject matter I know nothing about, unlike you old man. You just spew Fox blather.Oldbear83 said:J.R. said:you. I don't have time to get into rando crap no-one knows about, hence lack of credibilitywhiterock said:well, for starters, RedState is not some random internet jockey. It's a main-stream conservative blog that's been around for a couple of decades. It's co-founder, Ben Domenech (also publishes "The Transom," which has tens of thousands of subscribers) is one of the brighter minds on the right who has gone neverTrumper in no small part (I'm sure) due to the fact that he's married to Megan McCain. It's now owned by Salem Media group, a company with $250m/yr in revenues.J.R. said:don't know what you mean about red states, but I can generally take most on CNN, unlike CNBC and Foxy. My question that I posed, which you did not answer is....why in the world would someone post a rando tweet from some internet jockey that no-one has ever heard of? Don't get it.whiterock said:J.R. said:didn't answer the basic questionwhiterock said:J.R. said:
ok, all you posters that post rando tweets from people know one has heard of ...why? I just don't get taking some rando whack job that has computer access and you people think is is all gospel. Help me here. I just do not understand.
Red state and CNN are "rando whack jobs"?
LOL yes, I did. YOU didn't.
So who's the random whack job here?
JR pretending to be the authority on credibility ...
I HATE AARON BURR!
— Alexander Hamilton 🇺🇸 (@TheeThomasB) September 16, 2024
We received 11 of these forms at our home. None of the people they were addressed to lived at our home.Realitybites said:
Bexar County, Texas joins Fulton, Maricopa, Milwaukee, Madison, etc in the ranks of the Democrat vote manufacturing machine.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/democrat-judge-blocks-texas-ags-effort-stop-county/
You and I have very different ideas of credible. You pick fights with anyone with a different opinion, and seem pathologically incapable of posting without including an insult.J.R. said:I'm very credible. I don't not post on subject matter I know nothing about, unlike you old man. You just spew Fox blather.Oldbear83 said:J.R. said:you. I don't have time to get into rando crap no-one knows about, hence lack of credibilitywhiterock said:well, for starters, RedState is not some random internet jockey. It's a main-stream conservative blog that's been around for a couple of decades. It's co-founder, Ben Domenech (also publishes "The Transom," which has tens of thousands of subscribers) is one of the brighter minds on the right who has gone neverTrumper in no small part (I'm sure) due to the fact that he's married to Megan McCain. It's now owned by Salem Media group, a company with $250m/yr in revenues.J.R. said:don't know what you mean about red states, but I can generally take most on CNN, unlike CNBC and Foxy. My question that I posed, which you did not answer is....why in the world would someone post a rando tweet from some internet jockey that no-one has ever heard of? Don't get it.whiterock said:J.R. said:didn't answer the basic questionwhiterock said:J.R. said:
ok, all you posters that post rando tweets from people know one has heard of ...why? I just don't get taking some rando whack job that has computer access and you people think is is all gospel. Help me here. I just do not understand.
Red state and CNN are "rando whack jobs"?
LOL yes, I did. YOU didn't.
So who's the random whack job here?
JR pretending to be the authority on credibility ...
Just a hint - check the enthusiasm levels at different dates.sombear said:I read all publicly available polling data, including tabs.Oldbear83 said:
I continue to be amused by how many people don't read much more than the headline.
Of course, these are also usually people who think polls count as real news ...
I often get some internals, but it's been a while.
It is indisputable that Harris has improved her position since the debate.
The only question is whether it is sustainable.
Actually 3.3% improvement in less than a month among a voting public 99% of which have their minds made up.historian said:
Net positive of 0.1% means nothing especially if it's just an outlier. It's within the margin of error.
Oldbear83 said:J.R. said:you. I don't have time to get into rando crap no-one knows about, hence lack of credibilitywhiterock said:well, for starters, RedState is not some random internet jockey. It's a main-stream conservative blog that's been around for a couple of decades. It's co-founder, Ben Domenech (also publishes "The Transom," which has tens of thousands of subscribers) is one of the brighter minds on the right who has gone neverTrumper in no small part (I'm sure) due to the fact that he's married to Megan McCain. It's now owned by Salem Media group, a company with $250m/yr in revenues.J.R. said:don't know what you mean about red states, but I can generally take most on CNN, unlike CNBC and Foxy. My question that I posed, which you did not answer is....why in the world would someone post a rando tweet from some internet jockey that no-one has ever heard of? Don't get it.whiterock said:J.R. said:didn't answer the basic questionwhiterock said:J.R. said:
ok, all you posters that post rando tweets from people know one has heard of ...why? I just don't get taking some rando whack job that has computer access and you people think is is all gospel. Help me here. I just do not understand.
Red state and CNN are "rando whack jobs"?
LOL yes, I did. YOU didn't.
So who's the random whack job here?
JR pretending to be the authority on credibility ...
Oldbear83 said:You and I have very different ideas of credible. You pick fights with anyone with a different opinion, and seem pathologically incapable of posting without including an insult.J.R. said:I'm very credible. I don't not post on subject matter I know nothing about, unlike you old man. You just spew Fox blather.Oldbear83 said:J.R. said:you. I don't have time to get into rando crap no-one knows about, hence lack of credibilitywhiterock said:well, for starters, RedState is not some random internet jockey. It's a main-stream conservative blog that's been around for a couple of decades. It's co-founder, Ben Domenech (also publishes "The Transom," which has tens of thousands of subscribers) is one of the brighter minds on the right who has gone neverTrumper in no small part (I'm sure) due to the fact that he's married to Megan McCain. It's now owned by Salem Media group, a company with $250m/yr in revenues.J.R. said:don't know what you mean about red states, but I can generally take most on CNN, unlike CNBC and Foxy. My question that I posed, which you did not answer is....why in the world would someone post a rando tweet from some internet jockey that no-one has ever heard of? Don't get it.whiterock said:J.R. said:didn't answer the basic questionwhiterock said:J.R. said:
ok, all you posters that post rando tweets from people know one has heard of ...why? I just don't get taking some rando whack job that has computer access and you people think is is all gospel. Help me here. I just do not understand.
Red state and CNN are "rando whack jobs"?
LOL yes, I did. YOU didn't.
So who's the random whack job here?
JR pretending to be the authority on credibility ...
As for me, where polls are concerned I speak from more than two decades of experience, and that includes personal discussions with people like Frank Gallup and Scott Rasmussen shortly after he founded his polling group in 2003.
You bragged about your MBA in Finance. Mine was concentrated in Accounting, which is germane to this discussion because it's the accountants who see crashes coming when the C-suite guys think the gravy train will never end. It's the accountants who sweat out how much of your cash flow comes from Operations and who is driving spending. In Business we watch out for idiots with stupid Capital spending, in Politics we know to watch the Senate and House Appropriations Committees.
The thing about Trump 2017-20 is that from 2017-18 he faced headwinds from Republicans angry he won, and from 2019-20 he was faced with a very hostile Congress controlled by Democrats.
And before you fall back on your go-to 'someone needs a job' cheap shot, I have worked for over four decades with hard numbers, doing my best to keep idiots from causing layoffs through bad C-suite decisions.
You know those bumper stickers that say 'If you can read this, thank a teacher'?FLBear5630 said:Oldbear83 said:You and I have very different ideas of credible. You pick fights with anyone with a different opinion, and seem pathologically incapable of posting without including an insult.J.R. said:I'm very credible. I don't not post on subject matter I know nothing about, unlike you old man. You just spew Fox blather.Oldbear83 said:J.R. said:you. I don't have time to get into rando crap no-one knows about, hence lack of credibilitywhiterock said:well, for starters, RedState is not some random internet jockey. It's a main-stream conservative blog that's been around for a couple of decades. It's co-founder, Ben Domenech (also publishes "The Transom," which has tens of thousands of subscribers) is one of the brighter minds on the right who has gone neverTrumper in no small part (I'm sure) due to the fact that he's married to Megan McCain. It's now owned by Salem Media group, a company with $250m/yr in revenues.J.R. said:don't know what you mean about red states, but I can generally take most on CNN, unlike CNBC and Foxy. My question that I posed, which you did not answer is....why in the world would someone post a rando tweet from some internet jockey that no-one has ever heard of? Don't get it.whiterock said:J.R. said:didn't answer the basic questionwhiterock said:J.R. said:
ok, all you posters that post rando tweets from people know one has heard of ...why? I just don't get taking some rando whack job that has computer access and you people think is is all gospel. Help me here. I just do not understand.
Red state and CNN are "rando whack jobs"?
LOL yes, I did. YOU didn't.
So who's the random whack job here?
JR pretending to be the authority on credibility ...
As for me, where polls are concerned I speak from more than two decades of experience, and that includes personal discussions with people like Frank Gallup and Scott Rasmussen shortly after he founded his polling group in 2003.
You bragged about your MBA in Finance. Mine was concentrated in Accounting, which is germane to this discussion because it's the accountants who see crashes coming when the C-suite guys think the gravy train will never end. It's the accountants who sweat out how much of your cash flow comes from Operations and who is driving spending. In Business we watch out for idiots with stupid Capital spending, in Politics we know to watch the Senate and House Appropriations Committees.
The thing about Trump 2017-20 is that from 2017-18 he faced headwinds from Republicans angry he won, and from 2019-20 he was faced with a very hostile Congress controlled by Democrats.
And before you fall back on your go-to 'someone needs a job' cheap shot, I have worked for over four decades with hard numbers, doing my best to keep idiots from causing layoffs through bad C-suite decisions.
Bean counter, tracks...
Oldbear83 said:You know those bumper stickers that say 'If you can read this, thank a teacher'?FLBear5630 said:Oldbear83 said:You and I have very different ideas of credible. You pick fights with anyone with a different opinion, and seem pathologically incapable of posting without including an insult.J.R. said:I'm very credible. I don't not post on subject matter I know nothing about, unlike you old man. You just spew Fox blather.Oldbear83 said:J.R. said:you. I don't have time to get into rando crap no-one knows about, hence lack of credibilitywhiterock said:well, for starters, RedState is not some random internet jockey. It's a main-stream conservative blog that's been around for a couple of decades. It's co-founder, Ben Domenech (also publishes "The Transom," which has tens of thousands of subscribers) is one of the brighter minds on the right who has gone neverTrumper in no small part (I'm sure) due to the fact that he's married to Megan McCain. It's now owned by Salem Media group, a company with $250m/yr in revenues.J.R. said:don't know what you mean about red states, but I can generally take most on CNN, unlike CNBC and Foxy. My question that I posed, which you did not answer is....why in the world would someone post a rando tweet from some internet jockey that no-one has ever heard of? Don't get it.whiterock said:J.R. said:didn't answer the basic questionwhiterock said:J.R. said:
ok, all you posters that post rando tweets from people know one has heard of ...why? I just don't get taking some rando whack job that has computer access and you people think is is all gospel. Help me here. I just do not understand.
Red state and CNN are "rando whack jobs"?
LOL yes, I did. YOU didn't.
So who's the random whack job here?
JR pretending to be the authority on credibility ...
As for me, where polls are concerned I speak from more than two decades of experience, and that includes personal discussions with people like Frank Gallup and Scott Rasmussen shortly after he founded his polling group in 2003.
You bragged about your MBA in Finance. Mine was concentrated in Accounting, which is germane to this discussion because it's the accountants who see crashes coming when the C-suite guys think the gravy train will never end. It's the accountants who sweat out how much of your cash flow comes from Operations and who is driving spending. In Business we watch out for idiots with stupid Capital spending, in Politics we know to watch the Senate and House Appropriations Committees.
The thing about Trump 2017-20 is that from 2017-18 he faced headwinds from Republicans angry he won, and from 2019-20 he was faced with a very hostile Congress controlled by Democrats.
And before you fall back on your go-to 'someone needs a job' cheap shot, I have worked for over four decades with hard numbers, doing my best to keep idiots from causing layoffs through bad C-suite decisions.
Bean counter, tracks...
Mine says 'if your paycheck cleared, thank the accountant'.
Here is Kamala Harris’ full answer when asked if she would support executive action on creating a commission to study reparations: pic.twitter.com/ADMYExLIJr
— philip lewis (@Phil_Lewis_) September 17, 2024
This guy has terminal social studies teacher brain. Never mind that it’s just projection since their coalition is just “blame the White man.” https://t.co/owB2SvciA4
— Old Tory Right - Bulltard Strength-📈🐂🏴 (@rightwingnutrs) September 18, 2024
Oldbear83 said:You know those bumper stickers that say 'If you can read this, thank a teacher'?FLBear5630 said:Oldbear83 said:You and I have very different ideas of credible. You pick fights with anyone with a different opinion, and seem pathologically incapable of posting without including an insult.J.R. said:I'm very credible. I don't not post on subject matter I know nothing about, unlike you old man. You just spew Fox blather.Oldbear83 said:J.R. said:you. I don't have time to get into rando crap no-one knows about, hence lack of credibilitywhiterock said:well, for starters, RedState is not some random internet jockey. It's a main-stream conservative blog that's been around for a couple of decades. It's co-founder, Ben Domenech (also publishes "The Transom," which has tens of thousands of subscribers) is one of the brighter minds on the right who has gone neverTrumper in no small part (I'm sure) due to the fact that he's married to Megan McCain. It's now owned by Salem Media group, a company with $250m/yr in revenues.J.R. said:don't know what you mean about red states, but I can generally take most on CNN, unlike CNBC and Foxy. My question that I posed, which you did not answer is....why in the world would someone post a rando tweet from some internet jockey that no-one has ever heard of? Don't get it.whiterock said:J.R. said:didn't answer the basic questionwhiterock said:J.R. said:
ok, all you posters that post rando tweets from people know one has heard of ...why? I just don't get taking some rando whack job that has computer access and you people think is is all gospel. Help me here. I just do not understand.
Red state and CNN are "rando whack jobs"?
LOL yes, I did. YOU didn't.
So who's the random whack job here?
JR pretending to be the authority on credibility ...
As for me, where polls are concerned I speak from more than two decades of experience, and that includes personal discussions with people like Frank Gallup and Scott Rasmussen shortly after he founded his polling group in 2003.
You bragged about your MBA in Finance. Mine was concentrated in Accounting, which is germane to this discussion because it's the accountants who see crashes coming when the C-suite guys think the gravy train will never end. It's the accountants who sweat out how much of your cash flow comes from Operations and who is driving spending. In Business we watch out for idiots with stupid Capital spending, in Politics we know to watch the Senate and House Appropriations Committees.
The thing about Trump 2017-20 is that from 2017-18 he faced headwinds from Republicans angry he won, and from 2019-20 he was faced with a very hostile Congress controlled by Democrats.
And before you fall back on your go-to 'someone needs a job' cheap shot, I have worked for over four decades with hard numbers, doing my best to keep idiots from causing layoffs through bad C-suite decisions.
Bean counter, tracks...
Mine says 'if your paycheck cleared, thank the accountant'.
Oldbear83 said:
You know those bumper stickers that say 'If you can read this, thank a teacher'?
Mine says 'if your paycheck cleared, thank the accountant'.
🚨New: Pennsylvania mail-in ballot requests
— The Calvin Coolidge Project (@TheCalvinCooli1) September 18, 2024
50 days before the election in 2020:
🔵 Democrats 1,101,962 (+725,000)
🔴 Republicans: 376,956
50 days before the election in 2024:
🔵 Democrats: 798,946 (+477,869)
🔴 Republicans: 321,077
Biden won PA by only 80,555 votes in 2020 pic.twitter.com/UFRp59ZrEe
Border Patrol reports that 28,873 encounters with migrants in the 5 Texas Sectors of the US border with Mexico in August.
— Jeremy Wallace (@JeremySWallace) September 17, 2024
That is down 72% from last year and 75% from the year before.
Remember in Aug 2022, they reported 52K encounters just in Del Rio sector. Now just 7K there. pic.twitter.com/9MAUVNtwjQ
they are accomplishing the reduction in numbers by asking migrants to please cross at the border checkpoints, and/or flying them in to CONUS at taxpayer expense.boognish_bear said:
Serious issue not taken seriously until needed votes in Nov were on the lineBorder Patrol reports that 28,873 encounters with migrants in the 5 Texas Sectors of the US border with Mexico in August.
— Jeremy Wallace (@JeremySWallace) September 17, 2024
That is down 72% from last year and 75% from the year before.
Remember in Aug 2022, they reported 52K encounters just in Del Rio sector. Now just 7K there. pic.twitter.com/9MAUVNtwjQ
s Gov Abbott's policy having any effect?whiterock said:they are accomplishing the reduction in numbers by asking migrants to please cross at the border checkpoints, and/or flying them in to CONUS at taxpayer expense.boognish_bear said:
Serious issue not taken seriously until needed votes in Nov were on the lineBorder Patrol reports that 28,873 encounters with migrants in the 5 Texas Sectors of the US border with Mexico in August.
— Jeremy Wallace (@JeremySWallace) September 17, 2024
That is down 72% from last year and 75% from the year before.
Remember in Aug 2022, they reported 52K encounters just in Del Rio sector. Now just 7K there. pic.twitter.com/9MAUVNtwjQ
Suffolk is a bad poll.. the latest favorability polls are bouncing back to Trump at his usual and Harris is back underwater as well.sombear said:
Bad Suffolk PA poll for Trump - down 3.
#New Favourable Ratings - Gallup
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 18, 2024
🔴 Trump 46% (+2)
🔵 Harris 44%
Last poll (8/20) - 🔵 Harris +6
Gallup #B+ - 1007 A - 9/15
correct assessment.FLBear5630 said:sombear said:
Bad Suffolk PA poll for Trump - down 3.
No, debate and Swift had no effect. Must be bad poll. Fake news.
Rass is a "GOP leaning" poll and it was off towards Dems in 2020sombear said:In fairness, GOP-leaning polls were way off in 2020 as well.whiterock said:People deserve to be given context. Since this article gives none, here ya go! https://t.co/mjAqaEV4fv pic.twitter.com/92MVWrEnVp
— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) September 17, 2024
And if you look at state poll aggregates from 2020, they were not too bad.
The biggest concern for Trump right now is the sheer number of polls showing him down after the debate.
they arent talking about the 6 that show him up vs her 9sombear said:In fairness, GOP-leaning polls were way off in 2020 as well.whiterock said:People deserve to be given context. Since this article gives none, here ya go! https://t.co/mjAqaEV4fv pic.twitter.com/92MVWrEnVp
— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) September 17, 2024
And if you look at state poll aggregates from 2020, they were not too bad.
The biggest concern for Trump right now is the sheer number of polls showing him down after the debate.
Our current President has said repeatedly that White Supremacy is the single greatest threat to our country.Redbrickbear said:This guy has terminal social studies teacher brain. Never mind that it’s just projection since their coalition is just “blame the White man.” https://t.co/owB2SvciA4
— Old Tory Right - Bulltard Strength-📈🐂🏴 (@rightwingnutrs) September 18, 2024
it's happening that way in North Carolina and several other states. The request for Democrat mail in ballots is way down compared to 2020.whiterock said:
PA mail-in ballot requests are far below 2020 levels, Democrats considerably moreso.....by 6x the 2020 margin of victory.🚨New: Pennsylvania mail-in ballot requests
— The Calvin Coolidge Project (@TheCalvinCooli1) September 18, 2024
50 days before the election in 2020:
🔵 Democrats 1,101,962 (+725,000)
🔴 Republicans: 376,956
50 days before the election in 2024:
🔵 Democrats: 798,946 (+477,869)
🔴 Republicans: 321,077
Biden won PA by only 80,555 votes in 2020 pic.twitter.com/UFRp59ZrEe
This is the second one that I have seen where Trump's favorability is now better than Harriswhiterock said:#New Favourable Ratings - Gallup
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 18, 2024
🔴 Trump 46% (+2)
🔵 Harris 44%
Last poll (8/20) - 🔵 Harris +6
Gallup #B+ - 1007 A - 9/15
I just signed a bill to make this illegal in the state of California.
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) September 17, 2024
You can no longer knowingly distribute an ad or other election communications that contain materially deceptive content -- including deepfakes. https://t.co/VU4b8RBf6N