Below is Derek Ryan's analysis of Texas early voting data. He sends out a daily email, but this one is at the half-way mark:
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Good evening! Sorry for sending this out a bit later than usual. There is so much going on these days...shocking, I know.
We have now completed one full week of early voting in Texas. According to my file, 5,460,729 people have voted. That equates to 29.3% of all registered voters in the state.
As a reminder, here are the final totals and percentages from previous presidential elections:
2020: 11,315,056 votes cast (Turnout: 66.7%)
2016: 8,969,226 votes cast (Turnout: 59.4%)
2012: 7,993,851 votes cast (Turnout: 58.6%)
This means we are nearly halfway to the total number of votes cast in 2020 and 61% of the way towards reaching to the total in 2016.
As a reminder, in 2020, 25% of all votes which were cast in the election came from the last week of early voting. In 2022 (so not truly an apples-to-apples comparison), 31% of all votes were cast in the final week of early voting.
Modeling DataIndividuals with previous Republican Primary history have a 651k vote advantage over voters with previous Democratic Primary history. As a reminder, the final advantage in 2020 ended up being 749k. Again, while this isn't a predictor of who is going to win the state, it does help paint a picture of how things are trending.
There are various other models that also show information on who has voted:
According to
Spencer Davis, another voter data expert, a generic statewide Republican likely leads a generic statewide Democrat by 9.2% amongst votes which have already been cast.
According to
Target Smart (which appeared to only account for voters through Friday/Saturday) has early voters split 52.6% Republican, 36.6% Democrat, and 10.8% Other. Based on this model, the Republicans could theoretically have a 780k vote advantage over Democrats.
According to
L2-Data (which appeared to have voters accounted through the end of Saturday) has early voters split 54% Republican, 39% Democrat, and 7% Other. Their model doesn't include raw vote totals, but it's safe to assume that their model has an 800k+ vote advantage for Republicans.
Who is the "other" group in both of these models? People who either weren't modeled into one party or the other and/or new registrants who are too new to the system and, therefore, haven't received a modeling score.
Who Has NOT Voted?There are still 6.8 million registered voters who have not voted early who voted in the 2020 and/or 2022 General Election. Of those, 1.4 million are voters who have most recently voted in a Republican Primary and 1.2 million are voters who have most recently voted in a Democratic Primary.
WomenI keep getting asked, "Are women showing up to vote?" 30% of women who are registered to vote have already cast their vote while 29% of men have voted. Women make up over half of the early vote and they have a 400k+ vote advantage over men. This isn't really a surprise because there are more women who are registered to vote than men. Amongst registered voters, women have a 900k+ advantage over men.
For comparison, in 2020, 68% of women and 64% of men ended up voting in the election and in 2016, 61% of women and 57% of men ended up voting in the election.
The turnout rate of women in the five largest counties is 28%; in the next 20 largest counties, their turnout rate is 31%; and in the remaining counties, their turnout rate is 31%. So currently, there doesn't seem to be much of a bump in the urban/suburban areas with a woman being at the top of the ticket.
ReportsFor the report, click
here.
For the county-by-county report, click
here.
Final CommentsComparisons to 2020 in the report are now in sync. The report shows totals for who has voted through the final (only) Sunday of early voting in 2024. The numbers for 2020 also show totals for who voted through the final Sunday of early voting in 2020.