FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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BREAKING:

Russia to block Google, IOS and Android.

Aleksei Didenko, a member of the Russian State Duma, has announced that Google, along with its Android operating system and Apple's iOS, will soon be blocked in Russia. pic.twitter.com/SUTx3s7FvA

— Globe Eye News (@GlobeEyeNews) August 2, 2024

---

We better start coordinating better with NATO, Asia and Aus/NZ. Russia and China are positioning for a move. Iran with Israel and N Korea making munitions deals with Russia. Now this.

Whiterock, are you hearing anything that Russia is not showing its true capabilities in Ukraine? It is using basically the B and C teams? Just curious, not liking the chess board at the current time. Also, Asian allies in line? Curious...

---

Russia has large numbers of troops still waiting to join battle. Ukraine can't mobilize fast enough to create reserves at this point; they're just plugging holes.

Pokrovsk may well be the last nail in the coffin. Absolutely crucial supply hub linking the northeastern and southwestern halves of the front.

---

Where we differ, is that I believe Ukraine was the test case. When we allowed it to happen, the dominoes started falling. They are going for it all before the Nov election. Iran, Russia and China are all setting up the Board.

Too many things. Ukraine is not the end game for Russia. Next is Kalinburg Oblesk and the Baltics. They don't believe NATO will do a thing.

---

Their biggest concern is whether NATO will intervene directly in Ukraine. That's why they're making alliances, stockpiling ammo, conserving manpower. Even if they wanted to attack Kaliningrad or the Baltics, which I don't think they do, it would be a way down the road.

---

Yeah, it is much easier for them to subjugate their neighbors if nobody does anything. Silly NATO not realizing that...

You are really serious with this stuff? If NATO just agreed to stay out of it, Russia will go into Ukraine and sanitize it. What's wrong with that? Sounds like a Dr Evil line from Austin Powers movie. You really believe this stuff?

---

Whether NATO should intervene is another question. I'm just explaining why it makes no sense for Russia to start another war right now.

---

Russia isn't starting a war with anyone anytime soon because their conventional military capabilities have been exposed for what they are. Only a fool believe Russia is stronger now than it was before the war.

---

They're quite obviously stronger, but that's beside the point. They're not stronger in a way that enables them to go on the offensive against NATO.

---

If Russia calculates they can recreate in Romania, Poland, or the Baltics the same type of conflict they have in Ukraine, they will do it. All day long & twice on Sundays.

---

But they can't...and you have no evidence they even want to do so.

1. Romania, Poland, and the Baltic States are in NATO....they do not host a major Russian Black Sea naval base. And they are not flirting with joining NATO...they are already in NATO.

2. Romania and Poland have no real russian minority populations that Moscow could work through. Poland is 97% ethnically Polish and Romania is 89% ethnic Romanian... with Hungarians and Roma making up the rest (6% and 4%)

Lithuania is 85% ethnic Lithuanian and the remainder is Polish...less than 4% is ethnic russian.

-Latvia & Estonia are the only two that have any sort of significant russian minority population (25% for Latvia, and 22% for Estonia)

Not to mention that no all those ethnic russians are even interested in trying to help Moscow and the number of ethnic russians in the Baltic is on a steady decline anyway with out migration to Western Europe or to other countries.

[The number of ethnic Russians in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania has been declining since the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. In 1989, the last census during the Soviet occupation of the three countries, the population of ethnic Russians was around 1.7 million. By 2023, that number had decreased to about 887,000, with 296,000 in Estonia, 445,000 in Latvia]

3.. In Ukraine pre-war there were at least two major political parties (one pro-West, and the other pro-Moscow)

Nothing like that exists in Romania, Poland, or the Baltic States.

The closest you can get to that is the pro-Russian ST party in Latvia...yet that party only has 9 of the 100 seats in the Parliament (The Saeima)...and does not do well electorally

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_Stability!

---

(sigh)

1) Russia is not nearly as afraid of Nato as your argument presumes. Ukraine had security guarantees, in writing, from Nato members, did it not?

---

Did it? What exactly were those promises buddy?

Can you post the link to the actual text of those security "guarantees"

The Trilateral Statement, signed in January 1994, the USA only promised to "protest" any infringement on Ukrainian sovereignty.

I have never seen one of you guys post a link to any Official USA government document where we promised to fund a proxy war or go to war with Russia over Ukraine.

---

1. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE [Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe] Final Act, to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

2. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

---

1. No where in the formal document of the Budapest moratorium did the USA agree to go to war with the Russian Federation over the sovereignty of Ukraine.

Not one single line....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

...that: "there is no written obligation on the United States that flows from the Budapest Memorandum to provide assistance to Ukraine, and […] that would include lethal military assistance."

2. Ukraine could not even afford the nuke anyway...and Mosocw had the codes to the Nukes the whole time.

[Although Ukraine had thousands of nuclear weapons stationed on its territory, these weapons did not really belong to Ukraine. Command and control is a core feature of an effective nuclear deterrent, but Kyiv did not have it. According to the official history written by the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency, "The preplanned launch codes remained in the rocket army's underground command and control centers…No one denied that authority to launch the nuclear forces, the third largest in the world, remained in Moscow."]

https://www.cato.org/blog/soviet-nukes-ukraine-bargaining-chip-not-deterrent

Your "bloody red shirt" of a piece of paper in Budapest is weak soup....you want to spin it as Ukraine gave up their nukes (they never had operational control of them) and that the USA agreed to fight Russia in the future for them (the USA agreement was worded to never provide such a thing)

"Moreover, Ukraine had no nuclear weapons program and would have struggled to replace nuclear weapons once their service life expired. Instead, by agreeing to give up the nuclear weapons, Ukraine received financial compensations.."

---

So "Security Assurances" has no meaning. What good is a "Security Assurance" and maintaining their border if it means you are not going to help when someone invades??

---

You should take that up with the representees from DC who negotiated the "Memorandum of understanding"

Why do you think they specifically left the language ambiguous and made NO formal pledge to use military force against Russia...

They made only a pledge to log a formal protest and take the matter to the UN security council (which was done)

You wish the Memorandum in Budapest said more than it did....but alas for you it makes no pledge to fight a war with Russia over the borders of ukriane.

FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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boognish_bear said:

---

BREAKING:

Russia to block Google, IOS and Android.

Aleksei Didenko, a member of the Russian State Duma, has announced that Google, along with its Android operating system and Apple's iOS, will soon be blocked in Russia. pic.twitter.com/SUTx3s7FvA

— Globe Eye News (@GlobeEyeNews) August 2, 2024

---

We better start coordinating better with NATO, Asia and Aus/NZ. Russia and China are positioning for a move. Iran with Israel and N Korea making munitions deals with Russia. Now this.

Whiterock, are you hearing anything that Russia is not showing its true capabilities in Ukraine? It is using basically the B and C teams? Just curious, not liking the chess board at the current time. Also, Asian allies in line? Curious...

---

Russia has large numbers of troops still waiting to join battle. Ukraine can't mobilize fast enough to create reserves at this point; they're just plugging holes.

Pokrovsk may well be the last nail in the coffin. Absolutely crucial supply hub linking the northeastern and southwestern halves of the front.

---

Where we differ, is that I believe Ukraine was the test case. When we allowed it to happen, the dominoes started falling. They are going for it all before the Nov election. Iran, Russia and China are all setting up the Board.

Too many things. Ukraine is not the end game for Russia. Next is Kalinburg Oblesk and the Baltics. They don't believe NATO will do a thing.

---

Their biggest concern is whether NATO will intervene directly in Ukraine. That's why they're making alliances, stockpiling ammo, conserving manpower. Even if they wanted to attack Kaliningrad or the Baltics, which I don't think they do, it would be a way down the road.

---

Yeah, it is much easier for them to subjugate their neighbors if nobody does anything. Silly NATO not realizing that...

You are really serious with this stuff? If NATO just agreed to stay out of it, Russia will go into Ukraine and sanitize it. What's wrong with that? Sounds like a Dr Evil line from Austin Powers movie. You really believe this stuff?

---

Whether NATO should intervene is another question. I'm just explaining why it makes no sense for Russia to start another war right now.

---

Russia isn't starting a war with anyone anytime soon because their conventional military capabilities have been exposed for what they are. Only a fool believe Russia is stronger now than it was before the war.

---

They're quite obviously stronger, but that's beside the point. They're not stronger in a way that enables them to go on the offensive against NATO.

---

If Russia calculates they can recreate in Romania, Poland, or the Baltics the same type of conflict they have in Ukraine, they will do it. All day long & twice on Sundays.

---

But they can't...and you have no evidence they even want to do so.

1. Romania, Poland, and the Baltic States are in NATO....they do not host a major Russian Black Sea naval base. And they are not flirting with joining NATO...they are already in NATO.

2. Romania and Poland have no real russian minority populations that Moscow could work through. Poland is 97% ethnically Polish and Romania is 89% ethnic Romanian... with Hungarians and Roma making up the rest (6% and 4%)

Lithuania is 85% ethnic Lithuanian and the remainder is Polish...less than 4% is ethnic russian.

-Latvia & Estonia are the only two that have any sort of significant russian minority population (25% for Latvia, and 22% for Estonia)

Not to mention that no all those ethnic russians are even interested in trying to help Moscow and the number of ethnic russians in the Baltic is on a steady decline anyway with out migration to Western Europe or to other countries.

[The number of ethnic Russians in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania has been declining since the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. In 1989, the last census during the Soviet occupation of the three countries, the population of ethnic Russians was around 1.7 million. By 2023, that number had decreased to about 887,000, with 296,000 in Estonia, 445,000 in Latvia]

3.. In Ukraine pre-war there were at least two major political parties (one pro-West, and the other pro-Moscow)

Nothing like that exists in Romania, Poland, or the Baltic States.

The closest you can get to that is the pro-Russian ST party in Latvia...yet that party only has 9 of the 100 seats in the Parliament (The Saeima)...and does not do well electorally

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_Stability!

---

(sigh)

1) Russia is not nearly as afraid of Nato as your argument presumes. Ukraine had security guarantees, in writing, from Nato members, did it not?

---

Did it? What exactly were those promises buddy?

Can you post the link to the actual text of those security "guarantees"

The Trilateral Statement, signed in January 1994, the USA only promised to "protest" any infringement on Ukrainian sovereignty.

I have never seen one of you guys post a link to any Official USA government document where we promised to fund a proxy war or go to war with Russia over Ukraine.

---

1. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE [Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe] Final Act, to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

2. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

---

1. No where in the formal document of the Budapest moratorium did the USA agree to go to war with the Russian Federation over the sovereignty of Ukraine.

Not one single line....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

...that: "there is no written obligation on the United States that flows from the Budapest Memorandum to provide assistance to Ukraine, and […] that would include lethal military assistance."

2. Ukraine could not even afford the nuke anyway...and Mosocw had the codes to the Nukes the whole time.

[Although Ukraine had thousands of nuclear weapons stationed on its territory, these weapons did not really belong to Ukraine. Command and control is a core feature of an effective nuclear deterrent, but Kyiv did not have it. According to the official history written by the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency, "The preplanned launch codes remained in the rocket army's underground command and control centers…No one denied that authority to launch the nuclear forces, the third largest in the world, remained in Moscow."]

https://www.cato.org/blog/soviet-nukes-ukraine-bargaining-chip-not-deterrent

Your "bloody red shirt" of a piece of paper in Budapest is weak soup....you want to spin it as Ukraine gave up their nukes (they never had operational control of them) and that the USA agreed to fight Russia in the future for them (the USA agreement was worded to never provide such a thing)

"Moreover, Ukraine had no nuclear weapons program and would have struggled to replace nuclear weapons once their service life expired. Instead, by agreeing to give up the nuclear weapons, Ukraine received financial compensations.."

---

I know you prefer Russia and their position, but our Nation's credibility means something to me. "Security Assurance" means you will help assure their security if attacked. Most people would read it that way, only those used to figuring ways out of doing anything look for ways out.

---

More slander without an proof...

I think staying out of more costly foreign wars is actually in the best interests of my Nation. (while you apparently think we need more military intervention)

As far as credibility....for the 100th time....the USA said in the memorandum that is was bound to log a formal protest in the event that one party violated the agreement.

The USA did that....we took the matter to the UN Security Council....we have met our obligations!

We fulfilled everything we promised Ukraine

(We never promised to fight a war on behalf of Ukraine or even funnel them guns.)

FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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boognish_bear said:

---

BREAKING:

Russia to block Google, IOS and Android.

Aleksei Didenko, a member of the Russian State Duma, has announced that Google, along with its Android operating system and Apple's iOS, will soon be blocked in Russia. pic.twitter.com/SUTx3s7FvA

— Globe Eye News (@GlobeEyeNews) August 2, 2024

---

We better start coordinating better with NATO, Asia and Aus/NZ. Russia and China are positioning for a move. Iran with Israel and N Korea making munitions deals with Russia. Now this.

Whiterock, are you hearing anything that Russia is not showing its true capabilities in Ukraine? It is using basically the B and C teams? Just curious, not liking the chess board at the current time. Also, Asian allies in line? Curious...

---

Russia has large numbers of troops still waiting to join battle. Ukraine can't mobilize fast enough to create reserves at this point; they're just plugging holes.

Pokrovsk may well be the last nail in the coffin. Absolutely crucial supply hub linking the northeastern and southwestern halves of the front.

---

Where we differ, is that I believe Ukraine was the test case. When we allowed it to happen, the dominoes started falling. They are going for it all before the Nov election. Iran, Russia and China are all setting up the Board.

Too many things. Ukraine is not the end game for Russia. Next is Kalinburg Oblesk and the Baltics. They don't believe NATO will do a thing.

---

Their biggest concern is whether NATO will intervene directly in Ukraine. That's why they're making alliances, stockpiling ammo, conserving manpower. Even if they wanted to attack Kaliningrad or the Baltics, which I don't think they do, it would be a way down the road.

---

Yeah, it is much easier for them to subjugate their neighbors if nobody does anything. Silly NATO not realizing that...

You are really serious with this stuff? If NATO just agreed to stay out of it, Russia will go into Ukraine and sanitize it. What's wrong with that? Sounds like a Dr Evil line from Austin Powers movie. You really believe this stuff?

---

Whether NATO should intervene is another question. I'm just explaining why it makes no sense for Russia to start another war right now.

---

Russia isn't starting a war with anyone anytime soon because their conventional military capabilities have been exposed for what they are. Only a fool believe Russia is stronger now than it was before the war.

---

They're quite obviously stronger, but that's beside the point. They're not stronger in a way that enables them to go on the offensive against NATO.

---

If Russia calculates they can recreate in Romania, Poland, or the Baltics the same type of conflict they have in Ukraine, they will do it. All day long & twice on Sundays.

---

But they can't...and you have no evidence they even want to do so.

1. Romania, Poland, and the Baltic States are in NATO....they do not host a major Russian Black Sea naval base. And they are not flirting with joining NATO...they are already in NATO.

2. Romania and Poland have no real russian minority populations that Moscow could work through. Poland is 97% ethnically Polish and Romania is 89% ethnic Romanian... with Hungarians and Roma making up the rest (6% and 4%)

Lithuania is 85% ethnic Lithuanian and the remainder is Polish...less than 4% is ethnic russian.

-Latvia & Estonia are the only two that have any sort of significant russian minority population (25% for Latvia, and 22% for Estonia)

Not to mention that no all those ethnic russians are even interested in trying to help Moscow and the number of ethnic russians in the Baltic is on a steady decline anyway with out migration to Western Europe or to other countries.

[The number of ethnic Russians in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania has been declining since the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. In 1989, the last census during the Soviet occupation of the three countries, the population of ethnic Russians was around 1.7 million. By 2023, that number had decreased to about 887,000, with 296,000 in Estonia, 445,000 in Latvia]

3.. In Ukraine pre-war there were at least two major political parties (one pro-West, and the other pro-Moscow)

Nothing like that exists in Romania, Poland, or the Baltic States.

The closest you can get to that is the pro-Russian ST party in Latvia...yet that party only has 9 of the 100 seats in the Parliament (The Saeima)...and does not do well electorally

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_Stability!

---

(sigh)

1) Russia is not nearly as afraid of Nato as your argument presumes. Ukraine had security guarantees, in writing, from Nato members, did it not?

---

Did it? What exactly were those promises buddy?

Can you post the link to the actual text of those security "guarantees"

The Trilateral Statement, signed in January 1994, the USA only promised to "protest" any infringement on Ukrainian sovereignty.

I have never seen one of you guys post a link to any Official USA government document where we promised to fund a proxy war or go to war with Russia over Ukraine.

---

1. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE [Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe] Final Act, to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

2. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

---

1. No where in the formal document of the Budapest moratorium did the USA agree to go to war with the Russian Federation over the sovereignty of Ukraine.

Not one single line....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

...that: "there is no written obligation on the United States that flows from the Budapest Memorandum to provide assistance to Ukraine, and […] that would include lethal military assistance."

2. Ukraine could not even afford the nuke anyway...and Mosocw had the codes to the Nukes the whole time.

[Although Ukraine had thousands of nuclear weapons stationed on its territory, these weapons did not really belong to Ukraine. Command and control is a core feature of an effective nuclear deterrent, but Kyiv did not have it. According to the official history written by the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency, "The preplanned launch codes remained in the rocket army's underground command and control centers…No one denied that authority to launch the nuclear forces, the third largest in the world, remained in Moscow."]

https://www.cato.org/blog/soviet-nukes-ukraine-bargaining-chip-not-deterrent

Your "bloody red shirt" of a piece of paper in Budapest is weak soup....you want to spin it as Ukraine gave up their nukes (they never had operational control of them) and that the USA agreed to fight Russia in the future for them (the USA agreement was worded to never provide such a thing)

"Moreover, Ukraine had no nuclear weapons program and would have struggled to replace nuclear weapons once their service life expired. Instead, by agreeing to give up the nuclear weapons, Ukraine received financial compensations.."

---

So "Security Assurances" has no meaning. What good is a "Security Assurance" and maintaining their border if it means you are not going to help when someone invades??

---

You should take that up with the representees from DC who negotiated the "Memorandum of understanding"

Why do you think they specifically left the language ambiguous and made NO formal pledge to use military force against Russia...

They made only a pledge to log a formal protest and take the matter to the UN security council (which was done)

You wish the Memorandum in Budapest said more than it did....but alas for you it makes not pledge to fight a war with Russia over the borders of ukriane.

---

WE ARE NOT FIGHTING A WAR WITH RUSSIA. We are supplying Ukraine defend THEMSELVES, that IS consistent with the Memorandum. Nobody but you and Sam keep saying the US is in war with Russia.

---

NO ONE SAID WE ARE YET....yet...who knows were things can escalate in the future.

You claimed that the Budapest Memorandum of understating REQUIRES us to give them weapons (or even maybe military intervene)

It does not say that...and it never did.

So maybe stop using the Budapest memorandum as an excuse to funnel guns or fight Russia....its not that kind of document.

If you want to funnel guns to Kyiv....go a head...the memorandum does not say you can't....but it also does not require such actions from the USA or Britain

ATL Bear said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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trey3216 said:

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"All resources in Russian economy are exhausted. Inflation is rising, interest rates cannot be significantly increased. Extreme lack of the workforce. Adding money from reserves to market will just increase inflation without bringing new growth. Russia is likely facing stagnation… pic.twitter.com/rXRQULbrKt

— Jaanika Merilo (@jaanikamerilo) July 29, 2024

---

2.6% unemployment rate is full employment, which means, from this point forward, every single soldier mobilized and sent to the front has a negative effect on GDP. Sure, Russia can keep transferring resources to keep war production at current levels, but they can't do it forever. Eventually people are going to need new clothes, new cars, replacement household items, etc......

Russia will be able to sustain current war production into at least the summer of 2025, but they stay at that level indefinitely. They'll have to increasingly rob Peter (private sector) to pay Paul (war production).

---

More importantly than that is the loss of any solider is a devastating thing for Russia.

They don't have the birth rate to replace any losses.


[Russia's death rate has been higher than its birth rate for years, resulting in a natural population decline. In 2022, Russia's crude birth rate was 8.9 per 100,000 people, the lowest it's been since 2000, while its death rate was about 1.7 times higher than its birth rate. Russia's fertility rate is also one of the lowest in the world, with women having an average of 1.42 children in 2022, compared to the 2.1 children needed to maintain the population]

---

indeed. But Russia doesn't care about that if they subsume Ukraine into the Russia. They pick up 40m people, disproportionately young & female (given that Ukraine is fighting this war with +30 year old men).

---

I think you mean disproportionately old. The idea that Ukraine has a largely young population and is saving it for a rainy day while their aging army collapses is completely illogical.

As for the women, they'll be better off under Russian rule than fleeing west to fill the brothels of Europe. Those poor souls will be putting the "slav" in slavery for years to come, naturally without a word of complaint from the West. It's the only thing Europe really likes about them.

---

Given the fact that your Russian comrades are raping their way across Ukraine, I suspect if you ask a Ukrainian woman, she might feel she's better off working at a brothel in Europe.

---

Few Westerners bother to talk to Ukrainians under Russian rule...

---

What's the scoop?

Let me guess: they recommend to just sit back and enjoy it.

---

They're not just sitting back by any means. They've been fighting the Kiev regime for ten years and counting. Anti-Russian resistance is virtually non-existent in the Donbas. It's minimal in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, where most of your horror stories come from. Many of the separatists are former Ukrainian military. The civilian population has suffered wanton attacks from Western proxies for years. The Russians are widely considered liberators, and with good reason.

---

Thanks for the scoop. So, it's the Ukrainians raping and killing the Ukrainians.

Of course.

Thank God for the Russian "liberators." Afterall, it's far better to live under Russian rule than any Western democracy.

---

Ukrainians have been engaged in a civil war, yes.

Most of them live a long way from any Western democracy...and even the Poles are halfway glad to see them suffering.

---

Dang, who knew the Russians were getting such a bad rap - well, outside of you of course. I'm glad to hear that. The Russians are the good guys and all the many reports we hear about them committing atrocities is just anti-Russian propaganda.

It's probably because the Russians are just trying to save Christianity.

---

I condemn such crimes whether committed in Ukraine or Abu Ghraib. Does that really matter? I'm sure you didn't bring it up just to let me condemn what we all agree is wrong. You brought it up to distract from the issue of our crimes against the Ukrainian people.

---

Does it really matter? You guys are constantly bring up Iraq, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia every past event that has nothing to do with today.

---

Depends on the context

---

Quote:

---

.We are not discussing the intricacies of SALT 2 or the impact of missiles in Turkey. You are advocating for the invasion of a sovereign Nation by Russia over phone calls and posturing.

Sorry, I feel pretty strongly that I have the high ground on this one. Putin is wrong.

Comparing to Iraq? I agree Iraq was the wrong move. The no-fly with inspectors was working. Bush being wrong about the Invasion of Iraq doesn't make Putin OK on Ukraine.

---

---

The point is that Russia acted rationally in response to the Iraq War instead of acting like it was the beginning of WW3. If the US could do the same, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

---

Putin didn't have his grift structure in place when we invaded Iraq.

---

Did Putin go to the UN and ask for a coalition to go into Ukraine, like the US did with Iraq? I missed that. Were there 48 other Countries going into Ukraine? Geez, I must have been sleeping..

FLBear5630 said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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trey3216 said:

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"All resources in Russian economy are exhausted. Inflation is rising, interest rates cannot be significantly increased. Extreme lack of the workforce. Adding money from reserves to market will just increase inflation without bringing new growth. Russia is likely facing stagnation… pic.twitter.com/rXRQULbrKt

— Jaanika Merilo (@jaanikamerilo) July 29, 2024

---

2.6% unemployment rate is full employment, which means, from this point forward, every single soldier mobilized and sent to the front has a negative effect on GDP. Sure, Russia can keep transferring resources to keep war production at current levels, but they can't do it forever. Eventually people are going to need new clothes, new cars, replacement household items, etc......

Russia will be able to sustain current war production into at least the summer of 2025, but they stay at that level indefinitely. They'll have to increasingly rob Peter (private sector) to pay Paul (war production).

---

More importantly than that is the loss of any solider is a devastating thing for Russia.

They don't have the birth rate to replace any losses.


[Russia's death rate has been higher than its birth rate for years, resulting in a natural population decline. In 2022, Russia's crude birth rate was 8.9 per 100,000 people, the lowest it's been since 2000, while its death rate was about 1.7 times higher than its birth rate. Russia's fertility rate is also one of the lowest in the world, with women having an average of 1.42 children in 2022, compared to the 2.1 children needed to maintain the population]

---

indeed. But Russia doesn't care about that if they subsume Ukraine into the Russia. They pick up 40m people, disproportionately young & female (given that Ukraine is fighting this war with +30 year old men).

---

I think you mean disproportionately old. The idea that Ukraine has a largely young population and is saving it for a rainy day while their aging army collapses is completely illogical.

As for the women, they'll be better off under Russian rule than fleeing west to fill the brothels of Europe. Those poor souls will be putting the "slav" in slavery for years to come, naturally without a word of complaint from the West. It's the only thing Europe really likes about them.

---

Given the fact that your Russian comrades are raping their way across Ukraine, I suspect if you ask a Ukrainian woman, she might feel she's better off working at a brothel in Europe.

---

Few Westerners bother to talk to Ukrainians under Russian rule...

---

What's the scoop?

Let me guess: they recommend to just sit back and enjoy it.

---

They're not just sitting back by any means. They've been fighting the Kiev regime for ten years and counting. Anti-Russian resistance is virtually non-existent in the Donbas. It's minimal in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, where most of your horror stories come from. Many of the separatists are former Ukrainian military. The civilian population has suffered wanton attacks from Western proxies for years. The Russians are widely considered liberators, and with good reason.

---

Thanks for the scoop. So, it's the Ukrainians raping and killing the Ukrainians.

Of course.

Thank God for the Russian "liberators." Afterall, it's far better to live under Russian rule than any Western democracy.

---

Ukrainians have been engaged in a civil war, yes.

Most of them live a long way from any Western democracy...and even the Poles are halfway glad to see them suffering.

---

Dang, who knew the Russians were getting such a bad rap - well, outside of you of course. I'm glad to hear that. The Russians are the good guys and all the many reports we hear about them committing atrocities is just anti-Russian propaganda.

It's probably because the Russians are just trying to save Christianity.

---

I condemn such crimes whether committed in Ukraine or Abu Ghraib. Does that really matter? I'm sure you didn't bring it up just to let me condemn what we all agree is wrong. You brought it up to distract from the issue of our crimes against the Ukrainian people.

---

Does it really matter? You guys are constantly bring up Iraq, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia every past event that has nothing to do with today.

---

Depends on the context

---

Quote:

---

.We are not discussing the intricacies of SALT 2 or the impact of missiles in Turkey. You are advocating for the invasion of a sovereign Nation by Russia over phone calls and posturing.

Sorry, I feel pretty strongly that I have the high ground on this one. Putin is wrong.

Comparing to Iraq? I agree Iraq was the wrong move. The no-fly with inspectors was working. Bush being wrong about the Invasion of Iraq doesn't make Putin OK on Ukraine.

---

---

The point is that Russia acted rationally in response to the Iraq War instead of acting like it was the beginning of WW3. If the US could do the same, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

---

Putin didn't have his grift structure in place when we invaded Iraq.

---

Did Putin go to the UN and ask for a coalition to go into Ukraine, like the US did with Iraq? I missed that. Were there 48 other Countries going into Ukraine? Geez, I must have been sleeping..

---

Neither one would have mattered...

Putin did not ask...but the UN would have told him no

The USA did ask...but the UN did tell us no.

In both cases the DC and Moscow did what they wanted regardless of international law and opinion.

Are you seeing a patter here....

Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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trey3216 said:

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"All resources in Russian economy are exhausted. Inflation is rising, interest rates cannot be significantly increased. Extreme lack of the workforce. Adding money from reserves to market will just increase inflation without bringing new growth. Russia is likely facing stagnation… pic.twitter.com/rXRQULbrKt

— Jaanika Merilo (@jaanikamerilo) July 29, 2024

---

2.6% unemployment rate is full employment, which means, from this point forward, every single soldier mobilized and sent to the front has a negative effect on GDP. Sure, Russia can keep transferring resources to keep war production at current levels, but they can't do it forever. Eventually people are going to need new clothes, new cars, replacement household items, etc......

Russia will be able to sustain current war production into at least the summer of 2025, but they stay at that level indefinitely. They'll have to increasingly rob Peter (private sector) to pay Paul (war production).

---

More importantly than that is the loss of any solider is a devastating thing for Russia.

They don't have the birth rate to replace any losses.


[Russia's death rate has been higher than its birth rate for years, resulting in a natural population decline. In 2022, Russia's crude birth rate was 8.9 per 100,000 people, the lowest it's been since 2000, while its death rate was about 1.7 times higher than its birth rate. Russia's fertility rate is also one of the lowest in the world, with women having an average of 1.42 children in 2022, compared to the 2.1 children needed to maintain the population]

---

indeed. But Russia doesn't care about that if they subsume Ukraine into the Russia. They pick up 40m people, disproportionately young & female (given that Ukraine is fighting this war with +30 year old men).

---

I think you mean disproportionately old. The idea that Ukraine has a largely young population and is saving it for a rainy day while their aging army collapses is completely illogical.

As for the women, they'll be better off under Russian rule than fleeing west to fill the brothels of Europe. Those poor souls will be putting the "slav" in slavery for years to come, naturally without a word of complaint from the West. It's the only thing Europe really likes about them.

---

Given the fact that your Russian comrades are raping their way across Ukraine, I suspect if you ask a Ukrainian woman, she might feel she's better off working at a brothel in Europe.

---

Few Westerners bother to talk to Ukrainians under Russian rule...

---

What's the scoop?

Let me guess: they recommend to just sit back and enjoy it.

---

They're not just sitting back by any means. They've been fighting the Kiev regime for ten years and counting. Anti-Russian resistance is virtually non-existent in the Donbas. It's minimal in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, where most of your horror stories come from. Many of the separatists are former Ukrainian military. The civilian population has suffered wanton attacks from Western proxies for years. The Russians are widely considered liberators, and with good reason.

---

Thanks for the scoop. So, it's the Ukrainians raping and killing the Ukrainians.

Of course.

Thank God for the Russian "liberators." Afterall, it's far better to live under Russian rule than any Western democracy.

---

Ukrainians have been engaged in a civil war, yes.

Most of them live a long way from any Western democracy...and even the Poles are halfway glad to see them suffering.

---

Dang, who knew the Russians were getting such a bad rap - well, outside of you of course. I'm glad to hear that. The Russians are the good guys and all the many reports we hear about them committing atrocities is just anti-Russian propaganda.

It's probably because the Russians are just trying to save Christianity.

---

I condemn such crimes whether committed in Ukraine or Abu Ghraib. Does that really matter? I'm sure you didn't bring it up just to let me condemn what we all agree is wrong. You brought it up to distract from the issue of our crimes against the Ukrainian people.

---

Does it really matter? You guys are constantly bring up Iraq, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia every past event that has nothing to do with today.

---

Depends on the context

---

Quote:

---

.We are not discussing the intricacies of SALT 2 or the impact of missiles in Turkey. You are advocating for the invasion of a sovereign Nation by Russia over phone calls and posturing.

Sorry, I feel pretty strongly that I have the high ground on this one. Putin is wrong.

Comparing to Iraq? I agree Iraq was the wrong move. The no-fly with inspectors was working. Bush being wrong about the Invasion of Iraq doesn't make Putin OK on Ukraine.

---

---

The point is that Russia acted rationally in response to the Iraq War instead of acting like it was the beginning of WW3. If the US could do the same, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

---

Putin didn't have his grift structure in place when we invaded Iraq.

---

Did Putin go to the UN and ask for a coalition to go into Ukraine, like the US did with Iraq? I missed that. Were there 48 other Countries going into Ukraine? Geez, I must have been sleeping..

---

Neither one would have mattered...

Putin did not ask...but the UN would have told him no

The USA did ask...but the UN did tell us no.

In both cases the DC and Moscow did what they wanted regardless of international law and opinion.

Are you seeing a patter here....

---

Yes, one Nation that is open and transparent with what they are doing and 48 other Nations agreed and 1 Nation that isn't transparent, doesn't explain what they are dong and just invades.

It is amazing to me that you see no difference.

FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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BREAKING:

Russia to block Google, IOS and Android.

Aleksei Didenko, a member of the Russian State Duma, has announced that Google, along with its Android operating system and Apple's iOS, will soon be blocked in Russia. pic.twitter.com/SUTx3s7FvA

— Globe Eye News (@GlobeEyeNews) August 2, 2024

---

We better start coordinating better with NATO, Asia and Aus/NZ. Russia and China are positioning for a move. Iran with Israel and N Korea making munitions deals with Russia. Now this.

Whiterock, are you hearing anything that Russia is not showing its true capabilities in Ukraine? It is using basically the B and C teams? Just curious, not liking the chess board at the current time. Also, Asian allies in line? Curious...

---

Russia has large numbers of troops still waiting to join battle. Ukraine can't mobilize fast enough to create reserves at this point; they're just plugging holes.

Pokrovsk may well be the last nail in the coffin. Absolutely crucial supply hub linking the northeastern and southwestern halves of the front.

---

Where we differ, is that I believe Ukraine was the test case. When we allowed it to happen, the dominoes started falling. They are going for it all before the Nov election. Iran, Russia and China are all setting up the Board.

Too many things. Ukraine is not the end game for Russia. Next is Kalinburg Oblesk and the Baltics. They don't believe NATO will do a thing.

---

Their biggest concern is whether NATO will intervene directly in Ukraine. That's why they're making alliances, stockpiling ammo, conserving manpower. Even if they wanted to attack Kaliningrad or the Baltics, which I don't think they do, it would be a way down the road.

---

Yeah, it is much easier for them to subjugate their neighbors if nobody does anything. Silly NATO not realizing that...

You are really serious with this stuff? If NATO just agreed to stay out of it, Russia will go into Ukraine and sanitize it. What's wrong with that? Sounds like a Dr Evil line from Austin Powers movie. You really believe this stuff?

---

Whether NATO should intervene is another question. I'm just explaining why it makes no sense for Russia to start another war right now.

---

Russia isn't starting a war with anyone anytime soon because their conventional military capabilities have been exposed for what they are. Only a fool believe Russia is stronger now than it was before the war.

---

They're quite obviously stronger, but that's beside the point. They're not stronger in a way that enables them to go on the offensive against NATO.

---

If Russia calculates they can recreate in Romania, Poland, or the Baltics the same type of conflict they have in Ukraine, they will do it. All day long & twice on Sundays.

---

But they can't...and you have no evidence they even want to do so.

1. Romania, Poland, and the Baltic States are in NATO....they do not host a major Russian Black Sea naval base. And they are not flirting with joining NATO...they are already in NATO.

2. Romania and Poland have no real russian minority populations that Moscow could work through. Poland is 97% ethnically Polish and Romania is 89% ethnic Romanian... with Hungarians and Roma making up the rest (6% and 4%)

Lithuania is 85% ethnic Lithuanian and the remainder is Polish...less than 4% is ethnic russian.

-Latvia & Estonia are the only two that have any sort of significant russian minority population (25% for Latvia, and 22% for Estonia)

Not to mention that no all those ethnic russians are even interested in trying to help Moscow and the number of ethnic russians in the Baltic is on a steady decline anyway with out migration to Western Europe or to other countries.

[The number of ethnic Russians in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania has been declining since the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. In 1989, the last census during the Soviet occupation of the three countries, the population of ethnic Russians was around 1.7 million. By 2023, that number had decreased to about 887,000, with 296,000 in Estonia, 445,000 in Latvia]

3.. In Ukraine pre-war there were at least two major political parties (one pro-West, and the other pro-Moscow)

Nothing like that exists in Romania, Poland, or the Baltic States.

The closest you can get to that is the pro-Russian ST party in Latvia...yet that party only has 9 of the 100 seats in the Parliament (The Saeima)...and does not do well electorally

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_Stability!

---

(sigh)

1) Russia is not nearly as afraid of Nato as your argument presumes. Ukraine had security guarantees, in writing, from Nato members, did it not?

---

Did it? What exactly were those promises buddy?

Can you post the link to the actual text of those security "guarantees"

The Trilateral Statement, signed in January 1994, the USA only promised to "protest" any infringement on Ukrainian sovereignty.

I have never seen one of you guys post a link to any Official USA government document where we promised to fund a proxy war or go to war with Russia over Ukraine.

---

1. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE [Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe] Final Act, to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

2. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

---

1. No where in the formal document of the Budapest moratorium did the USA agree to go to war with the Russian Federation over the sovereignty of Ukraine.

Not one single line....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

...that: "there is no written obligation on the United States that flows from the Budapest Memorandum to provide assistance to Ukraine, and […] that would include lethal military assistance."

2. Ukraine could not even afford the nuke anyway...and Mosocw had the codes to the Nukes the whole time.

[Although Ukraine had thousands of nuclear weapons stationed on its territory, these weapons did not really belong to Ukraine. Command and control is a core feature of an effective nuclear deterrent, but Kyiv did not have it. According to the official history written by the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency, "The preplanned launch codes remained in the rocket army's underground command and control centers…No one denied that authority to launch the nuclear forces, the third largest in the world, remained in Moscow."]

https://www.cato.org/blog/soviet-nukes-ukraine-bargaining-chip-not-deterrent

Your "bloody red shirt" of a piece of paper in Budapest is weak soup....you want to spin it as Ukraine gave up their nukes (they never had operational control of them) and that the USA agreed to fight Russia in the future for them (the USA agreement was worded to never provide such a thing)

"Moreover, Ukraine had no nuclear weapons program and would have struggled to replace nuclear weapons once their service life expired. Instead, by agreeing to give up the nuclear weapons, Ukraine received financial compensations.."

---

So "Security Assurances" has no meaning. What good is a "Security Assurance" and maintaining their border if it means you are not going to help when someone invades??

---

You should take that up with the representees from DC who negotiated the "Memorandum of understanding"

Why do you think they specifically left the language ambiguous and made NO formal pledge to use military force against Russia...

They made only a pledge to log a formal protest and take the matter to the UN security council (which was done)

You wish the Memorandum in Budapest said more than it did....but alas for you it makes not pledge to fight a war with Russia over the borders of ukriane.

---

WE ARE NOT FIGHTING A WAR WITH RUSSIA. We are supplying Ukraine defend THEMSELVES, that IS consistent with the Memorandum. Nobody but you and Sam keep saying the US is in war with Russia.

---

NO ONE SAID WE ARE YET....yet...who knows were things can escalate in the future.

You claimed that the Budapest Memorandum of understating REQUIRES us to give them weapons (or even maybe military intervene)

It does not say that...and it never did.

So maybe stop using the Budapest memorandum as an excuse to funnel guns or fight Russia....its not that kind of document.

If you want to funnel guns to Kyiv....go a head...the memorandum does not say you can't....but it also does not require such actions from the USA or Britain

---

You just said that we want to fight a war with Russia. We are not fighting a war with Russia and nobody wants one.

---

Literally not true.

There are various political factions, think tanks, and organizations in DC who would love a regime change war against the current government in Moscow. (PUTIN IS NEW HITLER and all that jazz)

Personally I would not be surprised if you were one of those people...but I imagine are probably just a little afraid to come and out and say publicly that you want American soldiers dying in our 3 war of choice in 20 years.

ATL Bear said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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trey3216 said:

---

"All resources in Russian economy are exhausted. Inflation is rising, interest rates cannot be significantly increased. Extreme lack of the workforce. Adding money from reserves to market will just increase inflation without bringing new growth. Russia is likely facing stagnation… pic.twitter.com/rXRQULbrKt

— Jaanika Merilo (@jaanikamerilo) July 29, 2024

---

2.6% unemployment rate is full employment, which means, from this point forward, every single soldier mobilized and sent to the front has a negative effect on GDP. Sure, Russia can keep transferring resources to keep war production at current levels, but they can't do it forever. Eventually people are going to need new clothes, new cars, replacement household items, etc......

Russia will be able to sustain current war production into at least the summer of 2025, but they stay at that level indefinitely. They'll have to increasingly rob Peter (private sector) to pay Paul (war production).

---

More importantly than that is the loss of any solider is a devastating thing for Russia.

They don't have the birth rate to replace any losses.


[Russia's death rate has been higher than its birth rate for years, resulting in a natural population decline. In 2022, Russia's crude birth rate was 8.9 per 100,000 people, the lowest it's been since 2000, while its death rate was about 1.7 times higher than its birth rate. Russia's fertility rate is also one of the lowest in the world, with women having an average of 1.42 children in 2022, compared to the 2.1 children needed to maintain the population]

---

indeed. But Russia doesn't care about that if they subsume Ukraine into the Russia. They pick up 40m people, disproportionately young & female (given that Ukraine is fighting this war with +30 year old men).

---

I think you mean disproportionately old. The idea that Ukraine has a largely young population and is saving it for a rainy day while their aging army collapses is completely illogical.

As for the women, they'll be better off under Russian rule than fleeing west to fill the brothels of Europe. Those poor souls will be putting the "slav" in slavery for years to come, naturally without a word of complaint from the West. It's the only thing Europe really likes about them.

---

Given the fact that your Russian comrades are raping their way across Ukraine, I suspect if you ask a Ukrainian woman, she might feel she's better off working at a brothel in Europe.

---

Few Westerners bother to talk to Ukrainians under Russian rule...

---

What's the scoop?

Let me guess: they recommend to just sit back and enjoy it.

---

They're not just sitting back by any means. They've been fighting the Kiev regime for ten years and counting. Anti-Russian resistance is virtually non-existent in the Donbas. It's minimal in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, where most of your horror stories come from. Many of the separatists are former Ukrainian military. The civilian population has suffered wanton attacks from Western proxies for years. The Russians are widely considered liberators, and with good reason.

---

Thanks for the scoop. So, it's the Ukrainians raping and killing the Ukrainians.

Of course.

Thank God for the Russian "liberators." Afterall, it's far better to live under Russian rule than any Western democracy.

---

Ukrainians have been engaged in a civil war, yes.

Most of them live a long way from any Western democracy...and even the Poles are halfway glad to see them suffering.

---

Dang, who knew the Russians were getting such a bad rap - well, outside of you of course. I'm glad to hear that. The Russians are the good guys and all the many reports we hear about them committing atrocities is just anti-Russian propaganda.

It's probably because the Russians are just trying to save Christianity.

---

I condemn such crimes whether committed in Ukraine or Abu Ghraib. Does that really matter? I'm sure you didn't bring it up just to let me condemn what we all agree is wrong. You brought it up to distract from the issue of our crimes against the Ukrainian people.

---

Does it really matter? You guys are constantly bring up Iraq, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia every past event that has nothing to do with today.

---

Depends on the context

---

Quote:

---

.We are not discussing the intricacies of SALT 2 or the impact of missiles in Turkey. You are advocating for the invasion of a sovereign Nation by Russia over phone calls and posturing.

Sorry, I feel pretty strongly that I have the high ground on this one. Putin is wrong.

Comparing to Iraq? I agree Iraq was the wrong move. The no-fly with inspectors was working. Bush being wrong about the Invasion of Iraq doesn't make Putin OK on Ukraine.

---

---

The point is that Russia acted rationally in response to the Iraq War instead of acting like it was the beginning of WW3. If the US could do the same, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

---

Putin didn't have his grift structure in place when we invaded Iraq.

---

Putin took power in August of 1999...and before that held high level position like director of the FSS and Secretary of the Russian Security Council....he was grifting long before 2003

I think what you mean is he lack the military means to stop us from invading Iraq. And that is as much true today as it was 20 years ago.

But I don't remember him running guns to the Baathist insurgents in Iraq....he certainly could have made things harder on us in Iraq...of course we failed there without his opposition thanks to DC leadership.

whiterock said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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they don't have 10k any more....... Most estimates of losses hover (allowing for prorations based upon dating for sources) in the 4k range. (beware conflation in the data between "tanks' and "armored vehicles." Latter definition would approach a 5-digit number.)
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-tank-losses-ukraine-1914657

they theoretically have production capacity for 250 tanks/yr. That's not chump change. That's at or above the number of tanks in the British Army. But the real picture is that they have diverted a lot of capacity mostly over to refurbishing the older stocks. That stuff has been sitting in storage yards for decades. All the rubber is rotted, rust has fused things that are supposed to move, like levers and bearings and etc...... None of the commo gear will work. And they have to upgrade some things, comms, fire control, etc.....a little or a lot. And, of course, the nature of a refurbishment exercise on very old equipment means there is a lot of cannibalization going on. So that 10k number really isn't 10k. It's at least a 4-digit number smaller than that (allowing for leftover hulks). And any good refurbishment exercise will overhaul the easiest units first, meaning as they eat their way thru the inventory, the amount of work required to get each unit operable rises progressively to the point that it's cheaper to just make a new one. When they make that conversion, that "20 tanks per month" production number will rise.

worse, Russia cannot maintain that level of production forever. USA at peacetime production nearly equals Russian production. Add in British, French, German production, and Russia is in the hole before any of the Nato countries mobilize to war-time production levels.

---

I do not believe that Russia will fight NATO, as you show they cannot win without going Nuke and that is the end of Russia.

I do believe they are playing for the "Ukraine Style" of war, they do not believe that NATO will go to war over Kalingrad, Latvia and Lithuania. That NATO will supply weapons and let them flounder like Ukraine. I believe that is the end game.

In the end, I think Putin will view Crimea, Dombas and Kalingrad/Souther Lithuania as a success.

---

Think asymmetrically. They will do in Estonia exactly what they did in Donbas. It will start in Narva.

How does Nato react when Russian nationals with Estonian passports seize city hall in Narva and declare independence?

---

Keep an eye on what's happening in Moldova.

FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

---

Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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trey3216 said:

---

"All resources in Russian economy are exhausted. Inflation is rising, interest rates cannot be significantly increased. Extreme lack of the workforce. Adding money from reserves to market will just increase inflation without bringing new growth. Russia is likely facing stagnation… pic.twitter.com/rXRQULbrKt

— Jaanika Merilo (@jaanikamerilo) July 29, 2024

---

2.6% unemployment rate is full employment, which means, from this point forward, every single soldier mobilized and sent to the front has a negative effect on GDP. Sure, Russia can keep transferring resources to keep war production at current levels, but they can't do it forever. Eventually people are going to need new clothes, new cars, replacement household items, etc......

Russia will be able to sustain current war production into at least the summer of 2025, but they stay at that level indefinitely. They'll have to increasingly rob Peter (private sector) to pay Paul (war production).

---

More importantly than that is the loss of any solider is a devastating thing for Russia.

They don't have the birth rate to replace any losses.


[Russia's death rate has been higher than its birth rate for years, resulting in a natural population decline. In 2022, Russia's crude birth rate was 8.9 per 100,000 people, the lowest it's been since 2000, while its death rate was about 1.7 times higher than its birth rate. Russia's fertility rate is also one of the lowest in the world, with women having an average of 1.42 children in 2022, compared to the 2.1 children needed to maintain the population]

---

indeed. But Russia doesn't care about that if they subsume Ukraine into the Russia. They pick up 40m people, disproportionately young & female (given that Ukraine is fighting this war with +30 year old men).

---

I think you mean disproportionately old. The idea that Ukraine has a largely young population and is saving it for a rainy day while their aging army collapses is completely illogical.

As for the women, they'll be better off under Russian rule than fleeing west to fill the brothels of Europe. Those poor souls will be putting the "slav" in slavery for years to come, naturally without a word of complaint from the West. It's the only thing Europe really likes about them.

---

Given the fact that your Russian comrades are raping their way across Ukraine, I suspect if you ask a Ukrainian woman, she might feel she's better off working at a brothel in Europe.

---

Few Westerners bother to talk to Ukrainians under Russian rule...

---

What's the scoop?

Let me guess: they recommend to just sit back and enjoy it.

---

They're not just sitting back by any means. They've been fighting the Kiev regime for ten years and counting. Anti-Russian resistance is virtually non-existent in the Donbas. It's minimal in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, where most of your horror stories come from. Many of the separatists are former Ukrainian military. The civilian population has suffered wanton attacks from Western proxies for years. The Russians are widely considered liberators, and with good reason.

---

Thanks for the scoop. So, it's the Ukrainians raping and killing the Ukrainians.

Of course.

Thank God for the Russian "liberators." Afterall, it's far better to live under Russian rule than any Western democracy.

---

Ukrainians have been engaged in a civil war, yes.

Most of them live a long way from any Western democracy...and even the Poles are halfway glad to see them suffering.

---

Dang, who knew the Russians were getting such a bad rap - well, outside of you of course. I'm glad to hear that. The Russians are the good guys and all the many reports we hear about them committing atrocities is just anti-Russian propaganda.

It's probably because the Russians are just trying to save Christianity.

---

I condemn such crimes whether committed in Ukraine or Abu Ghraib. Does that really matter? I'm sure you didn't bring it up just to let me condemn what we all agree is wrong. You brought it up to distract from the issue of our crimes against the Ukrainian people.

---

Does it really matter? You guys are constantly bring up Iraq, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia every past event that has nothing to do with today.

---

Depends on the context

---

Quote:

---

.We are not discussing the intricacies of SALT 2 or the impact of missiles in Turkey. You are advocating for the invasion of a sovereign Nation by Russia over phone calls and posturing.

Sorry, I feel pretty strongly that I have the high ground on this one. Putin is wrong.

Comparing to Iraq? I agree Iraq was the wrong move. The no-fly with inspectors was working. Bush being wrong about the Invasion of Iraq doesn't make Putin OK on Ukraine.

---

---

The point is that Russia acted rationally in response to the Iraq War instead of acting like it was the beginning of WW3. If the US could do the same, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

---

Putin didn't have his grift structure in place when we invaded Iraq.

---

Did Putin go to the UN and ask for a coalition to go into Ukraine, like the US did with Iraq? I missed that. Were there 48 other Countries going into Ukraine? Geez, I must have been sleeping..

---

Neither one would have mattered...

Putin did not ask...but the UN would have told him no

The USA did ask...but the UN did tell us no.

In both cases the DC and Moscow did what they wanted regardless of international law and opinion.

Are you seeing a patter here....

---

Yes, one Nation that is open and transparent with what they are doing and 48 other Nations agreed and 1 Nation that isn't transparent, doesn't explain what they are dong and just invades.

It is amazing to me that you see no difference.

---

They are both illegal invasions of sovereign nations.

Amazing to me that you are still trying to justify the Iraq invasion (and boondoggle failure) 20 years later.

Personally I would be happy to see both Putin and Bush behind bars in the Hauge

https://apnews.com/article/russia-france-ukraine-liquified-natural-gas-shipments-eu-1bd02b575eace65806b4e37fffcd8186

Europe is importing more LNG from Russia than ever. Despite the fact that just about every media outlet is reporting of how Ukraine is winning all these battles by destroying a bridge here or there or a supply ship or two out in the black sea, there still doesn't appear to be a real end to this war, and Russia appears to be in a better spot for a prolonged conflict. The Russian government has also subsidized many portions of their economy which has shielded the average Russian from feeling the effects of all these sanctions. In fact, the sanctions were such big news at the time, the media swore up and down that they would cripple the Russian economy, but it's like we never hear about them anymore

Redbrickbear said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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trey3216 said:

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"All resources in Russian economy are exhausted. Inflation is rising, interest rates cannot be significantly increased. Extreme lack of the workforce. Adding money from reserves to market will just increase inflation without bringing new growth. Russia is likely facing stagnation… pic.twitter.com/rXRQULbrKt

— Jaanika Merilo (@jaanikamerilo) July 29, 2024

---

2.6% unemployment rate is full employment, which means, from this point forward, every single soldier mobilized and sent to the front has a negative effect on GDP. Sure, Russia can keep transferring resources to keep war production at current levels, but they can't do it forever. Eventually people are going to need new clothes, new cars, replacement household items, etc......

Russia will be able to sustain current war production into at least the summer of 2025, but they stay at that level indefinitely. They'll have to increasingly rob Peter (private sector) to pay Paul (war production).

---

More importantly than that is the loss of any solider is a devastating thing for Russia.

They don't have the birth rate to replace any losses.


[Russia's death rate has been higher than its birth rate for years, resulting in a natural population decline. In 2022, Russia's crude birth rate was 8.9 per 100,000 people, the lowest it's been since 2000, while its death rate was about 1.7 times higher than its birth rate. Russia's fertility rate is also one of the lowest in the world, with women having an average of 1.42 children in 2022, compared to the 2.1 children needed to maintain the population]

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indeed. But Russia doesn't care about that if they subsume Ukraine into the Russia. They pick up 40m people, disproportionately young & female (given that Ukraine is fighting this war with +30 year old men).

---

I think you mean disproportionately old. The idea that Ukraine has a largely young population and is saving it for a rainy day while their aging army collapses is completely illogical.

As for the women, they'll be better off under Russian rule than fleeing west to fill the brothels of Europe. Those poor souls will be putting the "slav" in slavery for years to come, naturally without a word of complaint from the West. It's the only thing Europe really likes about them.

---

Given the fact that your Russian comrades are raping their way across Ukraine, I suspect if you ask a Ukrainian woman, she might feel she's better off working at a brothel in Europe.

---

Few Westerners bother to talk to Ukrainians under Russian rule...

---

What's the scoop?

Let me guess: they recommend to just sit back and enjoy it.

---

They're not just sitting back by any means. They've been fighting the Kiev regime for ten years and counting. Anti-Russian resistance is virtually non-existent in the Donbas. It's minimal in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, where most of your horror stories come from. Many of the separatists are former Ukrainian military. The civilian population has suffered wanton attacks from Western proxies for years. The Russians are widely considered liberators, and with good reason.

---

Thanks for the scoop. So, it's the Ukrainians raping and killing the Ukrainians.

Of course.

Thank God for the Russian "liberators." Afterall, it's far better to live under Russian rule than any Western democracy.

---

Ukrainians have been engaged in a civil war, yes.

Most of them live a long way from any Western democracy...and even the Poles are halfway glad to see them suffering.

---

Dang, who knew the Russians were getting such a bad rap - well, outside of you of course. I'm glad to hear that. The Russians are the good guys and all the many reports we hear about them committing atrocities is just anti-Russian propaganda.

It's probably because the Russians are just trying to save Christianity.

---

I condemn such crimes whether committed in Ukraine or Abu Ghraib. Does that really matter? I'm sure you didn't bring it up just to let me condemn what we all agree is wrong. You brought it up to distract from the issue of our crimes against the Ukrainian people.

---

Does it really matter? You guys are constantly bring up Iraq, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia every past event that has nothing to do with today.

---

Depends on the context

---

Quote:

---

.We are not discussing the intricacies of SALT 2 or the impact of missiles in Turkey. You are advocating for the invasion of a sovereign Nation by Russia over phone calls and posturing.

Sorry, I feel pretty strongly that I have the high ground on this one. Putin is wrong.

Comparing to Iraq? I agree Iraq was the wrong move. The no-fly with inspectors was working. Bush being wrong about the Invasion of Iraq doesn't make Putin OK on Ukraine.

---

---

The point is that Russia acted rationally in response to the Iraq War instead of acting like it was the beginning of WW3. If the US could do the same, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

---

Putin didn't have his grift structure in place when we invaded Iraq.

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Putin took power in August of 1999...and before that held high level position like director of the FSS and Secretary of the Russian Security Council....he was grifting long before 2003

I think what you mean is he lack the military means to stop us from invading Iraq. And that is as much true today as it was 20 years ago.

But I don't remember him running guns to the Baathist insurgents in Iraq....he certainly could have made things harder on us in Iraq...of course we failed there without his opposition thanks to DC leadership.

---

Russia's economy was suffering at the turn of the century. The Iraq War actually assisted him in consolidating power thanks to the rise in oil prices. He started aligning his oligarchs and imprisoning or expelling those who weren't aligned. Check out the Yukos and Mikhail Khodorkofsky story as one of several examples. Euromaiden presented another threat that he wanted to control for his grift. Just goes to show how far he'll go to protect it.

FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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You just said that we want to fight a war with Russia. We are not fighting a war with Russia and nobody wants one.

---

Literally not true.

There are various political factions, think tanks, and organizations in DC who would love a regime change war against the current government in Moscow. (PUTIN IS NEW HITLER and all that jazz)

Personally I would not be surprised if you were one of those people...but I imagine are probably just a little afraid to come and out and say publicly that you want American soldiers dying in our 3 war of choice in 20 years.

---

I have literally never said I wanted the US to fight Russia. I want Russia to respect their borders and stop bullying other Nations. If Ukraine thinks NATO is better for it, that is their call. Not Putin's.

You seem to think Putin should get what he wants, Russia is right and the US should stay out of International disputes even if asked for help. From what I can tell, Israel would cease to exist, Russia would reform the Soviet Union and China would control from Pearl Harbor east if you had your way. And according to you, it wouldn't matter to the US. Until it did... That is the way appeasing goes.

---

You are throwing around so many assumptions in that ramble its hard to respond....but I will try

1. Israel would not "cease to exist" without direct cash transfusions from US taxpayers. It has a 1st world economy and nuclear freaking weapons. Now if for some reason it can't survive without US tax payer cash then that means its a leech and parasite state than can't stand on its own...that is their problem. But I feel confident they would be just fine.

2. No one said Putin gets what he wants....his foreign policy has mostly been a failure.

3. Moscow does not respect the borders of others unfoundedly...especially in their sphere of influence...but DC has show it does not either.

4. The USSR is long gone and no one is trying to get it back...several of the States that were in it now are in NATO and are not going anywhere. At best Moscow might hang on to Belarus, eastern Ukraine, and what bites it can take out of Georgia. A far cry from the days when red army troops were watering their horses in the rivers of central Germany and Tashkent had red army bases.

5. I have no idea why you would claim that China would get to control Peral Harbor...its on Hawaii and that is a US State...obviously we would fight to defend a US State (and China lacks the military ability to even project sustained military power outside its close costal waters)

Your entire paragraph is a rambling, lie filled, pseudo- argument where anything less than endless foreign interventionism is considered to be "appeasement"

trey3216 said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

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https://apnews.com/article/russia-france-ukraine-liquified-natural-gas-shipments-eu-1bd02b575eace65806b4e37fffcd8186

Europe is importing more LNG from Russia than ever. Despite the fact that just about every media outlet is reporting of how Ukraine is winning all these battles by destroying a bridge here or there or a supply ship or two out in the black sea, there still doesn't appear to be a real end to this war, and Russia appears to be in a better spot for a prolonged conflict. The Russian government has also subsidized many portions of their economy which has shielded the average Russian from feeling the effects of all these sanctions. In fact, the sanctions were such big news at the time, the media swore up and down that they would cripple the Russian economy, but it's like we never hear about them anymore

---

If shielding them so it doesn't hurt includes not being able to withdraw cash from banks and price controls (which we all know the eventual result of price controls....I think) then yeah, doing swimmingly.

---

Did anyone say the Russian economy was "doing swimmingly"

But we have been hearing predictions for years that the Russian economy was going to collapse under the weight of Western sanctions.

Is there a time frame on when that will actually be taking place?

Right now they just seem to important in goods from China and India and keep going...

ATL Bear said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

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https://apnews.com/article/russia-france-ukraine-liquified-natural-gas-shipments-eu-1bd02b575eace65806b4e37fffcd8186

Europe is importing more LNG from Russia than ever. Despite the fact that just about every media outlet is reporting of how Ukraine is winning all these battles by destroying a bridge here or there or a supply ship or two out in the black sea, there still doesn't appear to be a real end to this war, and Russia appears to be in a better spot for a prolonged conflict. The Russian government has also subsidized many portions of their economy which has shielded the average Russian from feeling the effects of all these sanctions. In fact, the sanctions were such big news at the time, the media swore up and down that they would cripple the Russian economy, but it's like we never hear about them anymore

---

India has saved nearly $100 Billion by purchasing discounted Russian oil. Not surprised to hear other countries are willing to purchase the discounted fuel. But that's not the full economic picture. Really difficult domestic impacts are happening, but Putin cares more about his broader interests vs the hardships of the Russian people.

---

Well we know that....

But North Korea (far far far more resource poor than Russia) has survived being totally cut off from just about everyone other than China since the 1950s

Western sanctions were supposed to bring Russia to its knees and cause a collapse....not just lower living standards in Moscow....is that collapse coming any time soon?

FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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BREAKING:

Russia to block Google, IOS and Android.

Aleksei Didenko, a member of the Russian State Duma, has announced that Google, along with its Android operating system and Apple's iOS, will soon be blocked in Russia. pic.twitter.com/SUTx3s7FvA

— Globe Eye News (@GlobeEyeNews) August 2, 2024

---

We better start coordinating better with NATO, Asia and Aus/NZ. Russia and China are positioning for a move. Iran with Israel and N Korea making munitions deals with Russia. Now this.

Whiterock, are you hearing anything that Russia is not showing its true capabilities in Ukraine? It is using basically the B and C teams? Just curious, not liking the chess board at the current time. Also, Asian allies in line? Curious...

---

Russia has large numbers of troops still waiting to join battle. Ukraine can't mobilize fast enough to create reserves at this point; they're just plugging holes.

Pokrovsk may well be the last nail in the coffin. Absolutely crucial supply hub linking the northeastern and southwestern halves of the front.

---

Where we differ, is that I believe Ukraine was the test case. When we allowed it to happen, the dominoes started falling. They are going for it all before the Nov election. Iran, Russia and China are all setting up the Board.

Too many things. Ukraine is not the end game for Russia. Next is Kalinburg Oblesk and the Baltics. They don't believe NATO will do a thing.

---

Their biggest concern is whether NATO will intervene directly in Ukraine. That's why they're making alliances, stockpiling ammo, conserving manpower. Even if they wanted to attack Kaliningrad or the Baltics, which I don't think they do, it would be a way down the road.

---

Yeah, it is much easier for them to subjugate their neighbors if nobody does anything. Silly NATO not realizing that...

You are really serious with this stuff? If NATO just agreed to stay out of it, Russia will go into Ukraine and sanitize it. What's wrong with that? Sounds like a Dr Evil line from Austin Powers movie. You really believe this stuff?

---

Whether NATO should intervene is another question. I'm just explaining why it makes no sense for Russia to start another war right now.

---

Russia isn't starting a war with anyone anytime soon because their conventional military capabilities have been exposed for what they are. Only a fool believe Russia is stronger now than it was before the war.

---

They're quite obviously stronger, but that's beside the point. They're not stronger in a way that enables them to go on the offensive against NATO.

---

Putin will push the lines of what he can get away with to recapture old ground. Ukraine, check. Kalingrad, next. Finnish border, and Baltics.Where will NATO make a stand?

You are seeing it across the board, Iran, Israel. N Korea, moved 250k rocket launchers to border. China, S China Sea. All are pushing to see how far they can go before NATO and INDOPAC make a stand.

They are testing our lines. Yet, you guys are trying to make a case justifying why it is not only OK, but the US fault. Under the guise that you are explaining. Many on here don't need to taught about China, Russia and Iran as many of us lived it. Funny, yours and RedBricks talking points remind me of PsyOp presentations on what to look out for in recruitment, it all starts so reasonable and makes sense...

---

Bear in mind that we're not interpreting Putin's intentions in a vaccum. Russian military doctrine under his rule has always been defensive. If you don't believe me, read what the Rand Corporation said in 2017. They're not conspiracy theorists or Russian shills. It's straight from the military-industrial horse's mouth:

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PE200/PE231/RAND_PE231.pdf

So the actual posture of Russia's forces tells us the same thing Putin has been telling us. Don't mess with us, and we won't mess with you.

Redbrickbear said:

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trey3216 said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

---

https://apnews.com/article/russia-france-ukraine-liquified-natural-gas-shipments-eu-1bd02b575eace65806b4e37fffcd8186

Europe is importing more LNG from Russia than ever. Despite the fact that just about every media outlet is reporting of how Ukraine is winning all these battles by destroying a bridge here or there or a supply ship or two out in the black sea, there still doesn't appear to be a real end to this war, and Russia appears to be in a better spot for a prolonged conflict. The Russian government has also subsidized many portions of their economy which has shielded the average Russian from feeling the effects of all these sanctions. In fact, the sanctions were such big news at the time, the media swore up and down that they would cripple the Russian economy, but it's like we never hear about them anymore

---

If shielding them so it doesn't hurt includes not being able to withdraw cash from banks and price controls (which we all know the eventual result of price controls....I think) then yeah, doing swimmingly.

---

Did anyone say the Russian economy was "doing swimmingly"

But we have been hearing predictions for years that the Russian economy was going to collapse under the weight of Western sanctions.

Is there a time frame on when that will actually be taking place?

Right now they just seem to important in goods from China and India and keep going...

---

And they get to import those at China and India's terms, not their own. You gonna go volunteer to fly a Russian airline, be a teller at a Russian bank, manage a company over there who can't do a damn thing to improve itself? By all means.....

trey3216 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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trey3216 said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

---

https://apnews.com/article/russia-france-ukraine-liquified-natural-gas-shipments-eu-1bd02b575eace65806b4e37fffcd8186

Europe is importing more LNG from Russia than ever. Despite the fact that just about every media outlet is reporting of how Ukraine is winning all these battles by destroying a bridge here or there or a supply ship or two out in the black sea, there still doesn't appear to be a real end to this war, and Russia appears to be in a better spot for a prolonged conflict. The Russian government has also subsidized many portions of their economy which has shielded the average Russian from feeling the effects of all these sanctions. In fact, the sanctions were such big news at the time, the media swore up and down that they would cripple the Russian economy, but it's like we never hear about them anymore

---

If shielding them so it doesn't hurt includes not being able to withdraw cash from banks and price controls (which we all know the eventual result of price controls....I think) then yeah, doing swimmingly.

---

Did anyone say the Russian economy was "doing swimmingly"

But we have been hearing predictions for years that the Russian economy was going to collapse under the weight of Western sanctions.

Is there a time frame on when that will actually be taking place?

Right now they just seem to important in goods from China and India and keep going...

---

And they get to import those at China and India's terms, not their own. You gonna go volunteer to fly a Russian airline, be a teller at a Russian bank, manage a company over there who can't do a damn thing to improve itself? By all means.....

---

You keep reiterating points I have never disputed.

I'm sure these trade deals are lopsided.

But the point was DC told us they would bring Russia to its knees...is that going to happen or not?

Did DC Media lie to us again?

(Why would I move to a move to a poor Slavic country with high levels of corruption, high HIV infection rate, rampant prostitution, and lots of people without indoor plumbing? I think you are more of a fan of countries like that...your pet project Ukraine fits the bill just like russia)

FLBear5630 said:

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trey3216 said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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trey3216 said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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trey3216 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mothra said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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BREAKING:

Russia to block Google, IOS and Android.

Aleksei Didenko, a member of the Russian State Duma, has announced that Google, along with its Android operating system and Apple's iOS, will soon be blocked in Russia. pic.twitter.com/SUTx3s7FvA

— Globe Eye News (@GlobeEyeNews) August 2, 2024

---

We better start coordinating better with NATO, Asia and Aus/NZ. Russia and China are positioning for a move. Iran with Israel and N Korea making munitions deals with Russia. Now this.

Whiterock, are you hearing anything that Russia is not showing its true capabilities in Ukraine? It is using basically the B and C teams? Just curious, not liking the chess board at the current time. Also, Asian allies in line? Curious...

---

Russia has large numbers of troops still waiting to join battle. Ukraine can't mobilize fast enough to create reserves at this point; they're just plugging holes.

Pokrovsk may well be the last nail in the coffin. Absolutely crucial supply hub linking the northeastern and southwestern halves of the front.

---

Where we differ, is that I believe Ukraine was the test case. When we allowed it to happen, the dominoes started falling. They are going for it all before the Nov election. Iran, Russia and China are all setting up the Board.

Too many things. Ukraine is not the end game for Russia. Next is Kalinburg Oblesk and the Baltics. They don't believe NATO will do a thing.

---

Their biggest concern is whether NATO will intervene directly in Ukraine. That's why they're making alliances, stockpiling ammo, conserving manpower. Even if they wanted to attack Kaliningrad or the Baltics, which I don't think they do, it would be a way down the road.

---

Yeah, it is much easier for them to subjugate their neighbors if nobody does anything. Silly NATO not realizing that...

You are really serious with this stuff? If NATO just agreed to stay out of it, Russia will go into Ukraine and sanitize it. What's wrong with that? Sounds like a Dr Evil line from Austin Powers movie. You really believe this stuff?

---

Whether NATO should intervene is another question. I'm just explaining why it makes no sense for Russia to start another war right now.

---

Russia isn't starting a war with anyone anytime soon because their conventional military capabilities have been exposed for what they are. Only a fool believe Russia is stronger now than it was before the war.

---

They're quite obviously stronger, but that's beside the point. They're not stronger in a way that enables them to go on the offensive against NATO.

---

If Russia calculates they can recreate in Romania, Poland, or the Baltics the same type of conflict they have in Ukraine, they will do it. All day long & twice on Sundays.

---

But they can't...and you have no evidence they even want to do so.

1. Romania, Poland, and the Baltic States are in NATO....they do not host a major Russian Black Sea naval base. And they are not flirting with joining NATO...they are already in NATO.

2. Romania and Poland have no real russian minority populations that Moscow could work through. Poland is 97% ethnically Polish and Romania is 89% ethnic Romanian... with Hungarians and Roma making up the rest (6% and 4%)

Lithuania is 85% ethnic Lithuanian and the remainder is Polish...less than 4% is ethnic russian.

-Latvia & Estonia are the only two that have any sort of significant russian minority population (25% for Latvia, and 22% for Estonia)

Not to mention that no all those ethnic russians are even interested in trying to help Moscow and the number of ethnic russians in the Baltic is on a steady decline anyway with out migration to Western Europe or to other countries.

[The number of ethnic Russians in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania has been declining since the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. In 1989, the last census during the Soviet occupation of the three countries, the population of ethnic Russians was around 1.7 million. By 2023, that number had decreased to about 887,000, with 296,000 in Estonia, 445,000 in Latvia]

3.. In Ukraine pre-war there were at least two major political parties (one pro-West, and the other pro-Moscow)

Nothing like that exists in Romania, Poland, or the Baltic States.

The closest you can get to that is the pro-Russian ST party in Latvia...yet that party only has 9 of the 100 seats in the Parliament (The Saeima)...and does not do well electorally

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_Stability!

---

I said it a few pages back, but it bears being posted again....

You can watch any show that Margarita Simonyan, Olga Skabeyeva, and Vladimir Solovyov are on and hear it dozens of times. They are Putin's mouthpiece.

---

I have no idea what Russian media personalities you spend your time watching....but they could be advocating for Russia to invade the Moon....does not mean they could do it.

Poland has 37 million people (more than Ukraine) and its 97% ethnically Polish

Romania has 20 million people and its 89% ethnically Romanian.

The Baltic States have 6.1 million people...and its super majority non-russian...80% plus Baltic peoples

And all of these Nations are backed up by the entire NATO war machine (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization -NATO- has an estimated population of 981 million people across its 32 member countries, many of whom are the largest economies on earth)

The idea of Russia taking any NATO state at this point is beyond ludicrous

---

Ludicrous IF NATO will push back... If those, like you, say it is not worth an US soldier dying in Romania or Latvia than it is not so ludicrous.

For all the talk of how bad Russia is doing, Russia has not used their front line troops in Ukraine. No T14s, they are using about 75 total aircraft in Ukraine. The vaunted Russian artillery has not shown up. There massive air force no where to be seen. Don't give me that Russia is giving it's all in Ukraine. They are using 1990's equipment and throwing numbers at Ukraine.

It looks more to me that Ukraine is a test of NATO and a training ground. They have what they want.

---

They are, quite literally, losing more of their most modern main battle tanks, air defense systems, radar installations and APC's every month than they can produce in a year.

---

They have not used their T-14s or there front line SU 57 or bombers airpower. I have a real hard time believing Ukraine is as good as they have. There bombers alone could devastate Ukraine and they are not in the fight. They are using up the old stuff.

By the way, I am not the only person who believe Putin is playing possum in Ukraine. Something does not feel right. But, trent knows his stuff, so I trust his comments on this subject.

---

THey probably aren't using t-14's because A) they don't have very many of them, and B) they can't get the really intricate parts they need to rehab them if they get damaged due to sanctions. It's not like they would be some huge boon to the battlefield. Same thing with SU 57's. They don't have a ton of them, and they can't afford to lose the pilots that actually know how to fly them. They're already losing multiple other fighter/bombers on a weekly basis.

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Like I said, I defer to you on this as you know your stuff and it is MUCH more recent than mine!

They have 10k tanks that are serviceable, 4k self propelled artillery, and 100k armored vehicles. Seems incredible that a 2 year war against Ukraine would deplete them to the point you guys are saying. But?

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It seems incredible because it isn't true. Ukraine's cheerleaders have consistently been wrong because their numbers are based on uncritical parroting of Ukrainian propaganda by Western media (see for example the Newsweek link above). More realistic analysis shows that Russia is having no trouble replacing its tanks:

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/01/31/russia-tanks-replace-losses/#google_vignette

Reuters just published a lengthy report explaining why the West is incapable of meeting Ukraine's ammunition needs. Of particular interest is this paragraph:

Quote:

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A senior officer on Ukraine's general staff provided Reuters previously undisclosed figures that demonstrate the deadly difference artillery makes. When Ukraine was firing 10,000 shells per day, between 35 and 45 Ukrainian soldiers were killed daily and about 250 to 300 were wounded. But when the daily fire fell to half that, more than 100 Ukrainian soldiers were killed per day and at least a thousand were wounded.

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-artillery/

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Redbrickbear said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

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https://apnews.com/article/russia-france-ukraine-liquified-natural-gas-shipments-eu-1bd02b575eace65806b4e37fffcd8186

Europe is importing more LNG from Russia than ever. Despite the fact that just about every media outlet is reporting of how Ukraine is winning all these battles by destroying a bridge here or there or a supply ship or two out in the black sea, there still doesn't appear to be a real end to this war, and Russia appears to be in a better spot for a prolonged conflict. The Russian government has also subsidized many portions of their economy which has shielded the average Russian from feeling the effects of all these sanctions. In fact, the sanctions were such big news at the time, the media swore up and down that they would cripple the Russian economy, but it's like we never hear about them anymore

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India has saved nearly $100 Billion by purchasing discounted Russian oil. Not surprised to hear other countries are willing to purchase the discounted fuel. But that's not the full economic picture. Really difficult domestic impacts are happening, but Putin cares more about his broader interests vs the hardships of the Russian people.

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Well we know that....

But North Korea (far far far more resource poor than Russia) has survived being totally cut off from just about everyone other than China since the 1950s

Western sanctions were supposed to bring Russia to its knees and cause a collapse....not just lower living standards in Moscow....is that collapse coming any time soon?

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You can add Iran to that list also. But that's the conundrum of sanctioning despots and/or despotic regimes. It assumes (incorrectly) they care about the outcomes that impact their people. Only when either the people revolt or you squeeze the right buttons on the regimes do they have impact. But like Iran, Russia has some other parties helping them which thwarts some of the sanction impact. But I'd guess if Russia and/or Iran faced NK level impact there'd be change.

Redbrickbear said:

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trey3216 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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trey3216 said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

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https://apnews.com/article/russia-france-ukraine-liquified-natural-gas-shipments-eu-1bd02b575eace65806b4e37fffcd8186

Europe is importing more LNG from Russia than ever. Despite the fact that just about every media outlet is reporting of how Ukraine is winning all these battles by destroying a bridge here or there or a supply ship or two out in the black sea, there still doesn't appear to be a real end to this war, and Russia appears to be in a better spot for a prolonged conflict. The Russian government has also subsidized many portions of their economy which has shielded the average Russian from feeling the effects of all these sanctions. In fact, the sanctions were such big news at the time, the media swore up and down that they would cripple the Russian economy, but it's like we never hear about them anymore

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If shielding them so it doesn't hurt includes not being able to withdraw cash from banks and price controls (which we all know the eventual result of price controls....I think) then yeah, doing swimmingly.

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Did anyone say the Russian economy was "doing swimmingly"

But we have been hearing predictions for years that the Russian economy was going to collapse under the weight of Western sanctions.

Is there a time frame on when that will actually be taking place?

Right now they just seem to important in goods from China and India and keep going...

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And they get to import those at China and India's terms, not their own. You gonna go volunteer to fly a Russian airline, be a teller at a Russian bank, manage a company over there who can't do a damn thing to improve itself? By all means.....

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You keep reiterating points I have never disputed.

I'm sure these trade deals are lopsided.

But the point was DC told us they would bring Russia to its knees...is that going to happen or not?

Did DC Media lie to us again?

(Why would I move to a move to a poor Slavic country with high levels of corruption, high HIV infection rate, rampant prostitution, and lots of people without indoor plumbing? I think you are more of a fan of countries like that...your pet project Ukraine fits the bill just like russia)

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it's funny how you always comment in absolutes then get pissy when it's offered back to you.

trey3216 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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trey3216 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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trey3216 said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

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https://apnews.com/article/russia-france-ukraine-liquified-natural-gas-shipments-eu-1bd02b575eace65806b4e37fffcd8186

Europe is importing more LNG from Russia than ever. Despite the fact that just about every media outlet is reporting of how Ukraine is winning all these battles by destroying a bridge here or there or a supply ship or two out in the black sea, there still doesn't appear to be a real end to this war, and Russia appears to be in a better spot for a prolonged conflict. The Russian government has also subsidized many portions of their economy which has shielded the average Russian from feeling the effects of all these sanctions. In fact, the sanctions were such big news at the time, the media swore up and down that they would cripple the Russian economy, but it's like we never hear about them anymore

---

If shielding them so it doesn't hurt includes not being able to withdraw cash from banks and price controls (which we all know the eventual result of price controls....I think) then yeah, doing swimmingly.

---

Did anyone say the Russian economy was "doing swimmingly"

But we have been hearing predictions for years that the Russian economy was going to collapse under the weight of Western sanctions.

Is there a time frame on when that will actually be taking place?

Right now they just seem to important in goods from China and India and keep going...

---

And they get to import those at China and India's terms, not their own. You gonna go volunteer to fly a Russian airline, be a teller at a Russian bank, manage a company over there who can't do a damn thing to improve itself? By all means.....

---

You keep reiterating points I have never disputed.

I'm sure these trade deals are lopsided.

But the point was DC told us they would bring Russia to its knees...is that going to happen or not?

Did DC Media lie to us again?

(Why would I move to a move to a poor Slavic country with high levels of corruption, high HIV infection rate, rampant prostitution, and lots of people without indoor plumbing? I think you are more of a fan of countries like that...your pet project Ukraine fits the bill just like russia)

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it's funny how you always comment in absolutes then get pissy when it's offered back to you.

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lol not mad at all....I took it as a joke and was just messing back

I don't think anyone would trade living in the West for the East

(Of course I was not messing around about Ukraine being corrupt, AIDs infected, and down right terrible...those happen to be facts)

ATL Bear said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

---

https://apnews.com/article/russia-france-ukraine-liquified-natural-gas-shipments-eu-1bd02b575eace65806b4e37fffcd8186

Europe is importing more LNG from Russia than ever. Despite the fact that just about every media outlet is reporting of how Ukraine is winning all these battles by destroying a bridge here or there or a supply ship or two out in the black sea, there still doesn't appear to be a real end to this war, and Russia appears to be in a better spot for a prolonged conflict. The Russian government has also subsidized many portions of their economy which has shielded the average Russian from feeling the effects of all these sanctions. In fact, the sanctions were such big news at the time, the media swore up and down that they would cripple the Russian economy, but it's like we never hear about them anymore

---

India has saved nearly $100 Billion by purchasing discounted Russian oil. Not surprised to hear other countries are willing to purchase the discounted fuel. But that's not the full economic picture. Really difficult domestic impacts are happening, but Putin cares more about his broader interests vs the hardships of the Russian people.

---

Well we know that....

But North Korea (far far far more resource poor than Russia) has survived being totally cut off from just about everyone other than China since the 1950s

Western sanctions were supposed to bring Russia to its knees and cause a collapse....not just lower living standards in Moscow....is that collapse coming any time soon?

---

You can add Iran to that list also. But that's the conundrum of sanctioning despots and/or despotic regimes. It assumes (incorrectly) they care about the outcomes that impact their people. Only when either the people revolt or you squeeze the right buttons on the regimes do they have impact. But like Iran, Russia has some other parties helping them which thwarts some of the sanction impact. But I'd guess if Russia and/or Iran faced NK level impact there'd be change.

---

Cuba as well

Sanctions as regime change tool don't seem to work that well

trey3216 said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

---

https://apnews.com/article/russia-france-ukraine-liquified-natural-gas-shipments-eu-1bd02b575eace65806b4e37fffcd8186

Europe is importing more LNG from Russia than ever. Despite the fact that just about every media outlet is reporting of how Ukraine is winning all these battles by destroying a bridge here or there or a supply ship or two out in the black sea, there still doesn't appear to be a real end to this war, and Russia appears to be in a better spot for a prolonged conflict. The Russian government has also subsidized many portions of their economy which has shielded the average Russian from feeling the effects of all these sanctions. In fact, the sanctions were such big news at the time, the media swore up and down that they would cripple the Russian economy, but it's like we never hear about them anymore

---

If shielding them so it doesn't hurt includes not being able to withdraw cash from banks and price controls (which we all know the eventual result of price controls....I think) then yeah, doing swimmingly.

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I never said they were doing swimmingly. Point is, the sanctions were sold as this way to strangle Russia into giving up. It's not working. But I'm sure if we just give Ukraine a few more million of American tax dollars, things will work out. The boys will be home by Christmas, I feel like it's true, so it must be true

I've noticed in this thread that whatever an article gets posted, it's met by the same five or six people with that "Slava Ukraine, boys will be home by Christmas, the plan for victory (that we can't explain, because there isn't one) is totally working" with scant supporting data. When it comes to the human psyche, facts simply cannot overcome people's feelings. I get it. But it doesn't exactly lead to quality discussion, lol

While Sam always talks of the imminent demise of Ukraine, he forgot to mention how Ukraine has recently captured 2 towns in Kursk Oblast, Russia.



https://www.threads.net/@ghostoflviv_/post/C-V0IdMy1vL

BREAKING:

Ukraine breaks its record for strike against the most distant oil refinery.

The Transneft oil refinery in Usinsk in the Komi Republic.

It’s more than 2000 km away.#FreeKomiRepublic pic.twitter.com/NAXFsI6Izt

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 6, 2024

Redbrickbear said:

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ATL Bear said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Daveisabovereproach said:

---

https://apnews.com/article/russia-france-ukraine-liquified-natural-gas-shipments-eu-1bd02b575eace65806b4e37fffcd8186

Europe is importing more LNG from Russia than ever. Despite the fact that just about every media outlet is reporting of how Ukraine is winning all these battles by destroying a bridge here or there or a supply ship or two out in the black sea, there still doesn't appear to be a real end to this war, and Russia appears to be in a better spot for a prolonged conflict. The Russian government has also subsidized many portions of their economy which has shielded the average Russian from feeling the effects of all these sanctions. In fact, the sanctions were such big news at the time, the media swore up and down that they would cripple the Russian economy, but it's like we never hear about them anymore

---

India has saved nearly $100 Billion by purchasing discounted Russian oil. Not surprised to hear other countries are willing to purchase the discounted fuel. But that's not the full economic picture. Really difficult domestic impacts are happening, but Putin cares more about his broader interests vs the hardships of the Russian people.

---

Well we know that....

But North Korea (far far far more resource poor than Russia) has survived being totally cut off from just about everyone other than China since the 1950s

Western sanctions were supposed to bring Russia to its knees and cause a collapse....not just lower living standards in Moscow....is that collapse coming any time soon?

---

You can add Iran to that list also. But that's the conundrum of sanctioning despots and/or despotic regimes. It assumes (incorrectly) they care about the outcomes that impact their people. Only when either the people revolt or you squeeze the right buttons on the regimes do they have impact. But like Iran, Russia has some other parties helping them which thwarts some of the sanction impact. But I'd guess if Russia and/or Iran faced NK level impact there'd be change.

---

Cuba as well

Sanctions as regime change tool don't seem to work that well

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Sanctions work as they are intended, but aren't a tool that alone will get regime change. It's the cowardice of people that usually fails the effort.