Sam Lowry said:
Is it a large country without anti-Slavic racism or the risk of being deported back to Ukraine and sent into the meat grinder?
Realitybites said:Sam Lowry said:
Is it a large country without anti-Slavic racism or the risk of being deported back to Ukraine and sent into the meat grinder?
Winner, winner.
That large country has taken in 5 million refugees. Poland and Germany only 1 million each. The US around 300k.
Imagine how bad it must be for Russia, too.....Sam Lowry said:
MOSCOW, October 30. /TASS/. The number of cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of the unit in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surpasses 100,000, Verkhovna Rada deputy Anna Skorokhod admitted.
"Unauthorized abandonment of the unit, desertion - I will not name the number, but I would say - more than 100,000," she said in an interview with YouTube channel Novosti Live.
Earlier, military lawyer from the Center for Support of Veterans and Their Families Roman Likhachev said that more than 100,000 servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had voluntarily left their units.
On Tuesday, president of Ukraine's Supreme Court Stanislav Kravchenko announced a significant increase in desertion cases in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, calling the situation threatening. According to Ukrainian media estimates, the total number of deserters in Ukraine has already reached 170,000.
Don't have to. It's only about 18,000.whiterock said:Imagine how bad it must be for Russia, too.....Sam Lowry said:
MOSCOW, October 30. /TASS/. The number of cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of the unit in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surpasses 100,000, Verkhovna Rada deputy Anna Skorokhod admitted.
"Unauthorized abandonment of the unit, desertion - I will not name the number, but I would say - more than 100,000," she said in an interview with YouTube channel Novosti Live.
Earlier, military lawyer from the Center for Support of Veterans and Their Families Roman Likhachev said that more than 100,000 servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had voluntarily left their units.
On Tuesday, president of Ukraine's Supreme Court Stanislav Kravchenko announced a significant increase in desertion cases in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, calling the situation threatening. According to Ukrainian media estimates, the total number of deserters in Ukraine has already reached 170,000.
whiterock said:Imagine how bad it must be for Russia, too.....Sam Lowry said:
MOSCOW, October 30. /TASS/. The number of cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of the unit in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surpasses 100,000, Verkhovna Rada deputy Anna Skorokhod admitted.
"Unauthorized abandonment of the unit, desertion - I will not name the number, but I would say - more than 100,000," she said in an interview with YouTube channel Novosti Live.
Earlier, military lawyer from the Center for Support of Veterans and Their Families Roman Likhachev said that more than 100,000 servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had voluntarily left their units.
On Tuesday, president of Ukraine's Supreme Court Stanislav Kravchenko announced a significant increase in desertion cases in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, calling the situation threatening. According to Ukrainian media estimates, the total number of deserters in Ukraine has already reached 170,000.
LOL that's why they're renting North Koreans to help take back parts of Russia.Sam Lowry said:Don't have to. It's only about 18,000.whiterock said:Imagine how bad it must be for Russia, too.....Sam Lowry said:
MOSCOW, October 30. /TASS/. The number of cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of the unit in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surpasses 100,000, Verkhovna Rada deputy Anna Skorokhod admitted.
"Unauthorized abandonment of the unit, desertion - I will not name the number, but I would say - more than 100,000," she said in an interview with YouTube channel Novosti Live.
Earlier, military lawyer from the Center for Support of Veterans and Their Families Roman Likhachev said that more than 100,000 servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had voluntarily left their units.
On Tuesday, president of Ukraine's Supreme Court Stanislav Kravchenko announced a significant increase in desertion cases in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, calling the situation threatening. According to Ukrainian media estimates, the total number of deserters in Ukraine has already reached 170,000.
neither army will be significantly impaired by desertions. Each country has millions of people rising of draft age EACH YEAR, more than they can afford to mobilize.Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Imagine how bad it must be for Russia, too.....Sam Lowry said:
MOSCOW, October 30. /TASS/. The number of cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of the unit in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surpasses 100,000, Verkhovna Rada deputy Anna Skorokhod admitted.
"Unauthorized abandonment of the unit, desertion - I will not name the number, but I would say - more than 100,000," she said in an interview with YouTube channel Novosti Live.
Earlier, military lawyer from the Center for Support of Veterans and Their Families Roman Likhachev said that more than 100,000 servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had voluntarily left their units.
On Tuesday, president of Ukraine's Supreme Court Stanislav Kravchenko announced a significant increase in desertion cases in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, calling the situation threatening. According to Ukrainian media estimates, the total number of deserters in Ukraine has already reached 170,000.
What side do you think can afford more desertions from its forced conscript army?
Russia doesn't even have a draft in the usual sense of the word.whiterock said:LOL that's why they're renting North Koreans to help take back parts of Russia.Sam Lowry said:Don't have to. It's only about 18,000.whiterock said:Imagine how bad it must be for Russia, too.....Sam Lowry said:
MOSCOW, October 30. /TASS/. The number of cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of the unit in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surpasses 100,000, Verkhovna Rada deputy Anna Skorokhod admitted.
"Unauthorized abandonment of the unit, desertion - I will not name the number, but I would say - more than 100,000," she said in an interview with YouTube channel Novosti Live.
Earlier, military lawyer from the Center for Support of Veterans and Their Families Roman Likhachev said that more than 100,000 servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had voluntarily left their units.
On Tuesday, president of Ukraine's Supreme Court Stanislav Kravchenko announced a significant increase in desertion cases in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, calling the situation threatening. According to Ukrainian media estimates, the total number of deserters in Ukraine has already reached 170,000.
Millions have fled the Russian draft
More nonsense.whiterock said:neither army will be significantly impaired by desertions. Each country has millions of people rising of draft age EACH YEAR, more than they can afford to mobilize.Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Imagine how bad it must be for Russia, too.....Sam Lowry said:
MOSCOW, October 30. /TASS/. The number of cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of the unit in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surpasses 100,000, Verkhovna Rada deputy Anna Skorokhod admitted.
"Unauthorized abandonment of the unit, desertion - I will not name the number, but I would say - more than 100,000," she said in an interview with YouTube channel Novosti Live.
Earlier, military lawyer from the Center for Support of Veterans and Their Families Roman Likhachev said that more than 100,000 servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had voluntarily left their units.
On Tuesday, president of Ukraine's Supreme Court Stanislav Kravchenko announced a significant increase in desertion cases in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, calling the situation threatening. According to Ukrainian media estimates, the total number of deserters in Ukraine has already reached 170,000.
What side do you think can afford more desertions from its forced conscript army?
Demographics are not terribly relevant in the outcome of this particular war. Each side has ample manpower available for service. The difficulty is in organizing all that manpower into an army that can be sustained over time. The primary disparity in this war is that Russia has more finite resources to do that than Nato. As long as Nato continues to supply Ukraine, Ukraine can (and likely will) outlast Russia.
whiterock said:Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Imagine how bad it must be for Russia, too.....Sam Lowry said:
MOSCOW, October 30. /TASS/. The number of cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of the unit in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surpasses 100,000, Verkhovna Rada deputy Anna Skorokhod admitted.
"Unauthorized abandonment of the unit, desertion - I will not name the number, but I would say - more than 100,000," she said in an interview with YouTube channel Novosti Live.
Earlier, military lawyer from the Center for Support of Veterans and Their Families Roman Likhachev said that more than 100,000 servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had voluntarily left their units.
On Tuesday, president of Ukraine's Supreme Court Stanislav Kravchenko announced a significant increase in desertion cases in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, calling the situation threatening. According to Ukrainian media estimates, the total number of deserters in Ukraine has already reached 170,000.
What side do you think can afford more desertions from its forced conscript army?
Demographics are not terribly relevant in the outcome of this particular war. Each side has ample manpower available for service. The difficulty is in organizing all that manpower into an army that can be sustained over time. The primary disparity in this war is that Russia has more finite resources to do that than Nato. As long as Nato continues to supply Ukraine, Ukraine can (and likely will) outlast Russia.
Bear8084 said:
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3953130/north-korean-soldiers-likely-to-enter-russian-war-on-ukraine/
https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korean-foreign-minister-arrives-moscow-talks-2024-11-01/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/01/north-korea-troops-russia-ukraine-kim-putin/
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/10/31/politics/us-north-korean-troops-combat-ukraine
The Russia/Ukraine War could last for at least as long as the Iran/Iraq War....two nations exhausting themselves in increasingly desultory combat over very small pieces of ground. That's where the Ukr/Russia war already is. Ukraine will lose the war when it runs out of bullets. Your argument implicitly cedes that fact - that if Nato cuts off funding, the war will end. But. If we keep sending ammo to Ukraine, Russia is likely to collapse before Ukraine (because Nato GDP dwarfs Russia GDP).Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Imagine how bad it must be for Russia, too.....Sam Lowry said:
MOSCOW, October 30. /TASS/. The number of cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of the unit in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surpasses 100,000, Verkhovna Rada deputy Anna Skorokhod admitted.
"Unauthorized abandonment of the unit, desertion - I will not name the number, but I would say - more than 100,000," she said in an interview with YouTube channel Novosti Live.
Earlier, military lawyer from the Center for Support of Veterans and Their Families Roman Likhachev said that more than 100,000 servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had voluntarily left their units.
On Tuesday, president of Ukraine's Supreme Court Stanislav Kravchenko announced a significant increase in desertion cases in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, calling the situation threatening. According to Ukrainian media estimates, the total number of deserters in Ukraine has already reached 170,000.
What side do you think can afford more desertions from its forced conscript army?
Demographics are not terribly relevant in the outcome of this particular war. Each side has ample manpower available for service. The difficulty is in organizing all that manpower into an army that can be sustained over time. The primary disparity in this war is that Russia has more finite resources to do that than Nato. As long as Nato continues to supply Ukraine, Ukraine can (and likely will) outlast Russia.
I have a hard time believing that.
In almost every war you can think of demographics have mattered a lot.
not as much as your arguments presume
Iran would have lost their war with Iraq but they had millions of young men to throw into the fight to save their Islamic revolution. And had Iraq had the population of Iran they would have taken Tehran.
(The population of Iraq in 1980 was 13.65 million. While Iran had a population of 39.5 million)
Those numbers are roughly proportional to the disparity in Ukraine/Russia population, correct?
The Iran/Iraq War lasted EIGHT YEARS and the two sides settled basically to a draw.
If we apply the demography is destiny premise which undergirds your analysis, Iran should have been the victor. So why did that not happen? (because Iran did not have the money to exploit its manpower advantage).
Heck I bet Germany would have won World War I if they had double the population in 1914
losing armies usually run out of bullets before they run out of men.
The whole NK story has been fishy from the beginning. First these pictures appear, supposedly of NK troops in Russia, but people soon notice that they're actually Buryats. Then Zelensky's line is that they're North Koreans in disguise. There's no confirmation from anywhere else. Then South Korea jumps on board, for whatever their hit-and-miss intelligence is worth. The US doesn't know anything about it, until Austin suddenly changes his mind, and now we "expect" NK to join the battle soon. I'll believe it when I see it.Redbrickbear said:Bear8084 said:
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3953130/north-korean-soldiers-likely-to-enter-russian-war-on-ukraine/
https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korean-foreign-minister-arrives-moscow-talks-2024-11-01/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/01/north-korea-troops-russia-ukraine-kim-putin/
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/10/31/politics/us-north-korean-troops-combat-ukraine
I think we have learned about trusting CNN or the Washington Post
The Post specifically is a long time organ of the CIA and State Department
I have no doubt Putin is buying weapons from whoever he can (and paying out the nose for it) because of the problems Russia has with making anything that works.
But I seriously doubt the Kim Dynasty in N. Korea is gonna send their soldiers to actually fight for him in Ukraine.
(at best they might take up some defensive duties in Russia proper and be paid handsomely in resources to do it)
N. Korea has rented workers to Russia in the past for projects in the Far East (where Russia is facing population decline)
These two flawed assumptions continue to mislead you. Russia is not losing men nearly as fast as Ukraine. And GDP does not produce arms, ammunition, etc. Factories and workers do.whiterock said:The Russia/Ukraine War could last for at least as long as the Iran/Iraq War....two nations exhausting themselves in increasingly desultory combat over very small pieces of ground. That's where the Ukr/Russia war already is. Ukraine will lose the war when it runs out of bullets. Your argument implicitly cedes that fact - that if Nato cuts off funding, the war will end. But. If we keep sending ammo to Ukraine, Russia is likely to collapse before Ukraine (because Nato GDP dwarfs Russia GDP).Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Imagine how bad it must be for Russia, too.....Sam Lowry said:
MOSCOW, October 30. /TASS/. The number of cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of the unit in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surpasses 100,000, Verkhovna Rada deputy Anna Skorokhod admitted.
"Unauthorized abandonment of the unit, desertion - I will not name the number, but I would say - more than 100,000," she said in an interview with YouTube channel Novosti Live.
Earlier, military lawyer from the Center for Support of Veterans and Their Families Roman Likhachev said that more than 100,000 servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had voluntarily left their units.
On Tuesday, president of Ukraine's Supreme Court Stanislav Kravchenko announced a significant increase in desertion cases in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, calling the situation threatening. According to Ukrainian media estimates, the total number of deserters in Ukraine has already reached 170,000.
What side do you think can afford more desertions from its forced conscript army?
Demographics are not terribly relevant in the outcome of this particular war. Each side has ample manpower available for service. The difficulty is in organizing all that manpower into an army that can be sustained over time. The primary disparity in this war is that Russia has more finite resources to do that than Nato. As long as Nato continues to supply Ukraine, Ukraine can (and likely will) outlast Russia.
I have a hard time believing that.
In almost every war you can think of demographics have mattered a lot.
not as much as your arguments presume
Iran would have lost their war with Iraq but they had millions of young men to throw into the fight to save their Islamic revolution. And had Iraq had the population of Iran they would have taken Tehran.
(The population of Iraq in 1980 was 13.65 million. While Iran had a population of 39.5 million)
Those numbers are roughly proportional to the disparity in Ukraine/Russia population, correct?
The Iran/Iraq War lasted EIGHT YEARS and the two sides settled basically to a draw.
If we apply the demography is destiny premise which undergirds your analysis, Iran should have been the victor. So why did that not happen? (because Iran did not have the money to exploit its manpower advantage).
Heck I bet Germany would have won World War I if they had double the population in 1914
losing armies usually run out of bullets before they run out of men.
GDP matters more than demographics because it is GDP that makes uniforms and rifles and ammunition and arty tubes and tanks and boots and laces and mess kits and.......... All of those things and more matter too. An army cannot fight barefooted in a Ukrainian winter. So the number of troops in the field is not a function of demographics; it is literally a function of stockpiles of boots & socks. (remember what the Russian winter did to the victorious French army that occupied Moscow?) I mean, sure, a soldier can wrap his foot in rags and survive, but he cannot fight effectively that way for long.
It's not that demographics don't matter. It's that they are not the sole determining factor that your analysis consistently insists. With substantial outside aid, demographics become a minor detail in the very long term....decades down the road. BOTH Russia and Ukraine have more manpower than they can afford to recruit, train, arm, and deploy......hundreds of thousands of fresh bodies rising to military age each year. From a strictly manpower standpoint, the war can go on for at least as long as the Iran/Iraq War......as long as Nato keeps supplying Ukraine.
Jesus Tapdancing on a toothpick.Sam Lowry said:These two flawed assumptions continue to mislead you. Russia is not losing men nearly as fast as Ukraine. And GDP does not produce arms, ammunition, etc. Factories and workers do.whiterock said:The Russia/Ukraine War could last for at least as long as the Iran/Iraq War....two nations exhausting themselves in increasingly desultory combat over very small pieces of ground. That's where the Ukr/Russia war already is. Ukraine will lose the war when it runs out of bullets. Your argument implicitly cedes that fact - that if Nato cuts off funding, the war will end. But. If we keep sending ammo to Ukraine, Russia is likely to collapse before Ukraine (because Nato GDP dwarfs Russia GDP).Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Imagine how bad it must be for Russia, too.....Sam Lowry said:
MOSCOW, October 30. /TASS/. The number of cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of the unit in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surpasses 100,000, Verkhovna Rada deputy Anna Skorokhod admitted.
"Unauthorized abandonment of the unit, desertion - I will not name the number, but I would say - more than 100,000," she said in an interview with YouTube channel Novosti Live.
Earlier, military lawyer from the Center for Support of Veterans and Their Families Roman Likhachev said that more than 100,000 servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had voluntarily left their units.
On Tuesday, president of Ukraine's Supreme Court Stanislav Kravchenko announced a significant increase in desertion cases in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, calling the situation threatening. According to Ukrainian media estimates, the total number of deserters in Ukraine has already reached 170,000.
What side do you think can afford more desertions from its forced conscript army?
Demographics are not terribly relevant in the outcome of this particular war. Each side has ample manpower available for service. The difficulty is in organizing all that manpower into an army that can be sustained over time. The primary disparity in this war is that Russia has more finite resources to do that than Nato. As long as Nato continues to supply Ukraine, Ukraine can (and likely will) outlast Russia.
I have a hard time believing that.
In almost every war you can think of demographics have mattered a lot.
not as much as your arguments presume
Iran would have lost their war with Iraq but they had millions of young men to throw into the fight to save their Islamic revolution. And had Iraq had the population of Iran they would have taken Tehran.
(The population of Iraq in 1980 was 13.65 million. While Iran had a population of 39.5 million)
Those numbers are roughly proportional to the disparity in Ukraine/Russia population, correct?
The Iran/Iraq War lasted EIGHT YEARS and the two sides settled basically to a draw.
If we apply the demography is destiny premise which undergirds your analysis, Iran should have been the victor. So why did that not happen? (because Iran did not have the money to exploit its manpower advantage).
Heck I bet Germany would have won World War I if they had double the population in 1914
losing armies usually run out of bullets before they run out of men.
GDP matters more than demographics because it is GDP that makes uniforms and rifles and ammunition and arty tubes and tanks and boots and laces and mess kits and.......... All of those things and more matter too. An army cannot fight barefooted in a Ukrainian winter. So the number of troops in the field is not a function of demographics; it is literally a function of stockpiles of boots & socks. (remember what the Russian winter did to the victorious French army that occupied Moscow?) I mean, sure, a soldier can wrap his foot in rags and survive, but he cannot fight effectively that way for long.
It's not that demographics don't matter. It's that they are not the sole determining factor that your analysis consistently insists. With substantial outside aid, demographics become a minor detail in the very long term....decades down the road. BOTH Russia and Ukraine have more manpower than they can afford to recruit, train, arm, and deploy......hundreds of thousands of fresh bodies rising to military age each year. From a strictly manpower standpoint, the war can go on for at least as long as the Iran/Iraq War......as long as Nato keeps supplying Ukraine.
GDP is a pretty good measure of industrial capacity, particularly when one entity has 10x the GDP of the other. There simply isn't a scenario where Russia could match NATO production....once NATO mobilizes (which is happening).Sam Lowry said:These two flawed assumptions continue to mislead you. Russia is not losing men nearly as fast as Ukraine. And GDP does not produce arms, ammunition, etc. Factories and workers do.whiterock said:The Russia/Ukraine War could last for at least as long as the Iran/Iraq War....two nations exhausting themselves in increasingly desultory combat over very small pieces of ground. That's where the Ukr/Russia war already is. Ukraine will lose the war when it runs out of bullets. Your argument implicitly cedes that fact - that if Nato cuts off funding, the war will end. But. If we keep sending ammo to Ukraine, Russia is likely to collapse before Ukraine (because Nato GDP dwarfs Russia GDP).Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Imagine how bad it must be for Russia, too.....Sam Lowry said:
MOSCOW, October 30. /TASS/. The number of cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of the unit in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surpasses 100,000, Verkhovna Rada deputy Anna Skorokhod admitted.
"Unauthorized abandonment of the unit, desertion - I will not name the number, but I would say - more than 100,000," she said in an interview with YouTube channel Novosti Live.
Earlier, military lawyer from the Center for Support of Veterans and Their Families Roman Likhachev said that more than 100,000 servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had voluntarily left their units.
On Tuesday, president of Ukraine's Supreme Court Stanislav Kravchenko announced a significant increase in desertion cases in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, calling the situation threatening. According to Ukrainian media estimates, the total number of deserters in Ukraine has already reached 170,000.
What side do you think can afford more desertions from its forced conscript army?
Demographics are not terribly relevant in the outcome of this particular war. Each side has ample manpower available for service. The difficulty is in organizing all that manpower into an army that can be sustained over time. The primary disparity in this war is that Russia has more finite resources to do that than Nato. As long as Nato continues to supply Ukraine, Ukraine can (and likely will) outlast Russia.
I have a hard time believing that.
In almost every war you can think of demographics have mattered a lot.
not as much as your arguments presume
Iran would have lost their war with Iraq but they had millions of young men to throw into the fight to save their Islamic revolution. And had Iraq had the population of Iran they would have taken Tehran.
(The population of Iraq in 1980 was 13.65 million. While Iran had a population of 39.5 million)
Those numbers are roughly proportional to the disparity in Ukraine/Russia population, correct?
The Iran/Iraq War lasted EIGHT YEARS and the two sides settled basically to a draw.
If we apply the demography is destiny premise which undergirds your analysis, Iran should have been the victor. So why did that not happen? (because Iran did not have the money to exploit its manpower advantage).
Heck I bet Germany would have won World War I if they had double the population in 1914
losing armies usually run out of bullets before they run out of men.
GDP matters more than demographics because it is GDP that makes uniforms and rifles and ammunition and arty tubes and tanks and boots and laces and mess kits and.......... All of those things and more matter too. An army cannot fight barefooted in a Ukrainian winter. So the number of troops in the field is not a function of demographics; it is literally a function of stockpiles of boots & socks. (remember what the Russian winter did to the victorious French army that occupied Moscow?) I mean, sure, a soldier can wrap his foot in rags and survive, but he cannot fight effectively that way for long.
It's not that demographics don't matter. It's that they are not the sole determining factor that your analysis consistently insists. With substantial outside aid, demographics become a minor detail in the very long term....decades down the road. BOTH Russia and Ukraine have more manpower than they can afford to recruit, train, arm, and deploy......hundreds of thousands of fresh bodies rising to military age each year. From a strictly manpower standpoint, the war can go on for at least as long as the Iran/Iraq War......as long as Nato keeps supplying Ukraine.
NATO's efforts are far too little and too late.whiterock said:GDP is a pretty good measure of industrial capacity, particularly when one entity has 10x the GDP of the other. There simply isn't a scenario where Russia could match NATO production....once NATO mobilizes (which is happening).Sam Lowry said:These two flawed assumptions continue to mislead you. Russia is not losing men nearly as fast as Ukraine. And GDP does not produce arms, ammunition, etc. Factories and workers do.whiterock said:The Russia/Ukraine War could last for at least as long as the Iran/Iraq War....two nations exhausting themselves in increasingly desultory combat over very small pieces of ground. That's where the Ukr/Russia war already is. Ukraine will lose the war when it runs out of bullets. Your argument implicitly cedes that fact - that if Nato cuts off funding, the war will end. But. If we keep sending ammo to Ukraine, Russia is likely to collapse before Ukraine (because Nato GDP dwarfs Russia GDP).Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Imagine how bad it must be for Russia, too.....Sam Lowry said:
MOSCOW, October 30. /TASS/. The number of cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of the unit in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surpasses 100,000, Verkhovna Rada deputy Anna Skorokhod admitted.
"Unauthorized abandonment of the unit, desertion - I will not name the number, but I would say - more than 100,000," she said in an interview with YouTube channel Novosti Live.
Earlier, military lawyer from the Center for Support of Veterans and Their Families Roman Likhachev said that more than 100,000 servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had voluntarily left their units.
On Tuesday, president of Ukraine's Supreme Court Stanislav Kravchenko announced a significant increase in desertion cases in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, calling the situation threatening. According to Ukrainian media estimates, the total number of deserters in Ukraine has already reached 170,000.
What side do you think can afford more desertions from its forced conscript army?
Demographics are not terribly relevant in the outcome of this particular war. Each side has ample manpower available for service. The difficulty is in organizing all that manpower into an army that can be sustained over time. The primary disparity in this war is that Russia has more finite resources to do that than Nato. As long as Nato continues to supply Ukraine, Ukraine can (and likely will) outlast Russia.
I have a hard time believing that.
In almost every war you can think of demographics have mattered a lot.
not as much as your arguments presume
Iran would have lost their war with Iraq but they had millions of young men to throw into the fight to save their Islamic revolution. And had Iraq had the population of Iran they would have taken Tehran.
(The population of Iraq in 1980 was 13.65 million. While Iran had a population of 39.5 million)
Those numbers are roughly proportional to the disparity in Ukraine/Russia population, correct?
The Iran/Iraq War lasted EIGHT YEARS and the two sides settled basically to a draw.
If we apply the demography is destiny premise which undergirds your analysis, Iran should have been the victor. So why did that not happen? (because Iran did not have the money to exploit its manpower advantage).
Heck I bet Germany would have won World War I if they had double the population in 1914
losing armies usually run out of bullets before they run out of men.
GDP matters more than demographics because it is GDP that makes uniforms and rifles and ammunition and arty tubes and tanks and boots and laces and mess kits and.......... All of those things and more matter too. An army cannot fight barefooted in a Ukrainian winter. So the number of troops in the field is not a function of demographics; it is literally a function of stockpiles of boots & socks. (remember what the Russian winter did to the victorious French army that occupied Moscow?) I mean, sure, a soldier can wrap his foot in rags and survive, but he cannot fight effectively that way for long.
It's not that demographics don't matter. It's that they are not the sole determining factor that your analysis consistently insists. With substantial outside aid, demographics become a minor detail in the very long term....decades down the road. BOTH Russia and Ukraine have more manpower than they can afford to recruit, train, arm, and deploy......hundreds of thousands of fresh bodies rising to military age each year. From a strictly manpower standpoint, the war can go on for at least as long as the Iran/Iraq War......as long as Nato keeps supplying Ukraine.
Please explain the scenario where a well-entrenched defender loses troops at a greater rate than the attacker in a static war of attrition.
Both sides are exhausted, debilitated, unable to engage in anything remotely resembling mechanized warfare. It's moving at less than the speed of Napoleonic warfare, at this point.Sam Lowry said:NATO's efforts are far too little and too late.whiterock said:GDP is a pretty good measure of industrial capacity, particularly when one entity has 10x the GDP of the other. There simply isn't a scenario where Russia could match NATO production....once NATO mobilizes (which is happening).Sam Lowry said:These two flawed assumptions continue to mislead you. Russia is not losing men nearly as fast as Ukraine. And GDP does not produce arms, ammunition, etc. Factories and workers do.whiterock said:The Russia/Ukraine War could last for at least as long as the Iran/Iraq War....two nations exhausting themselves in increasingly desultory combat over very small pieces of ground. That's where the Ukr/Russia war already is. Ukraine will lose the war when it runs out of bullets. Your argument implicitly cedes that fact - that if Nato cuts off funding, the war will end. But. If we keep sending ammo to Ukraine, Russia is likely to collapse before Ukraine (because Nato GDP dwarfs Russia GDP).Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Imagine how bad it must be for Russia, too.....Sam Lowry said:
MOSCOW, October 30. /TASS/. The number of cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of the unit in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surpasses 100,000, Verkhovna Rada deputy Anna Skorokhod admitted.
"Unauthorized abandonment of the unit, desertion - I will not name the number, but I would say - more than 100,000," she said in an interview with YouTube channel Novosti Live.
Earlier, military lawyer from the Center for Support of Veterans and Their Families Roman Likhachev said that more than 100,000 servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had voluntarily left their units.
On Tuesday, president of Ukraine's Supreme Court Stanislav Kravchenko announced a significant increase in desertion cases in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, calling the situation threatening. According to Ukrainian media estimates, the total number of deserters in Ukraine has already reached 170,000.
What side do you think can afford more desertions from its forced conscript army?
Demographics are not terribly relevant in the outcome of this particular war. Each side has ample manpower available for service. The difficulty is in organizing all that manpower into an army that can be sustained over time. The primary disparity in this war is that Russia has more finite resources to do that than Nato. As long as Nato continues to supply Ukraine, Ukraine can (and likely will) outlast Russia.
I have a hard time believing that.
In almost every war you can think of demographics have mattered a lot.
not as much as your arguments presume
Iran would have lost their war with Iraq but they had millions of young men to throw into the fight to save their Islamic revolution. And had Iraq had the population of Iran they would have taken Tehran.
(The population of Iraq in 1980 was 13.65 million. While Iran had a population of 39.5 million)
Those numbers are roughly proportional to the disparity in Ukraine/Russia population, correct?
The Iran/Iraq War lasted EIGHT YEARS and the two sides settled basically to a draw.
If we apply the demography is destiny premise which undergirds your analysis, Iran should have been the victor. So why did that not happen? (because Iran did not have the money to exploit its manpower advantage).
Heck I bet Germany would have won World War I if they had double the population in 1914
losing armies usually run out of bullets before they run out of men.
GDP matters more than demographics because it is GDP that makes uniforms and rifles and ammunition and arty tubes and tanks and boots and laces and mess kits and.......... All of those things and more matter too. An army cannot fight barefooted in a Ukrainian winter. So the number of troops in the field is not a function of demographics; it is literally a function of stockpiles of boots & socks. (remember what the Russian winter did to the victorious French army that occupied Moscow?) I mean, sure, a soldier can wrap his foot in rags and survive, but he cannot fight effectively that way for long.
It's not that demographics don't matter. It's that they are not the sole determining factor that your analysis consistently insists. With substantial outside aid, demographics become a minor detail in the very long term....decades down the road. BOTH Russia and Ukraine have more manpower than they can afford to recruit, train, arm, and deploy......hundreds of thousands of fresh bodies rising to military age each year. From a strictly manpower standpoint, the war can go on for at least as long as the Iran/Iraq War......as long as Nato keeps supplying Ukraine.
Please explain the scenario where a well-entrenched defender loses troops at a greater rate than the attacker in a static war of attrition.
I suggest that you explain the scenario where a well entrenched defender loses at a greater rate. After all, you're the one who claimed it was happening in 2023 (it wasn't).
I made no such claim. What I did do was note that Ukraine, after their counter-offensive failed to break thru, would infiltrate Russian positions, await counterattack, repel it...then withdraw. That is not exactly a novel way to exploit Russian doctrine of immediate, furious counterattack to retake lost positions. It's essentially what they're doing in Kursk - sally forth and take poorly defended ground, then await Russian counter-attack....to force Russia to engage in disproportionate losses across a broader front.
What's happening now is what I predicted. The war of attrition has taken its toll. The Ukrainians can no longer fight back effectively. They're critically low on manpower. Those defenses you're talking about took the better part of a decade to establish. They're almost all gone now, and Russia isn't allowing time to rebuild them.
LOL "no longer fight back effectively." How many years will it take Russia to take the rest of Donetsk oblast?
russia has lost more ground in Russia than it has gained in the Donbas since Kursk started.Sam Lowry said:
If both sides were exhausted, Russia's progress wouldn't be accelerating as it has. And it has markedly accelerated since the fall of Avdiivka.
To answer your question, Russia will secure Donetsk in six to twelve months. I'm guessing much closer to six.
You poor thing.trey3216 said:russia has lost more ground in Russia than it has gained in the Donbas since Kursk started.Sam Lowry said:
If both sides were exhausted, Russia's progress wouldn't be accelerating as it has. And it has markedly accelerated since the fall of Avdiivka.
To answer your question, Russia will secure Donetsk in six to twelve months. I'm guessing much closer to six.
LOL "accelerating..." Sure. They were advancing by feet. per day. Now they're advancing by yards per day. It'll take longer than 12 months.....Sam Lowry said:
If both sides were exhausted, Russia's progress wouldn't be accelerating as it has. And it has markedly accelerated since the fall of Avdiivka.
To answer your question, Russia will secure Donetsk in six to twelve months. I'm guessing much closer to six.
whiterock said:LOL "accelerating..." Sure. They were advancing by feet. per day. Now they're advancing by yards per day. It'll take longer than 12 months.....Sam Lowry said:
If both sides were exhausted, Russia's progress wouldn't be accelerating as it has. And it has markedly accelerated since the fall of Avdiivka.
To answer your question, Russia will secure Donetsk in six to twelve months. I'm guessing much closer to six.
By next summer, they'll have increasing difficulty sustaining their efforts. 2026 is when it wraps up. Unless we remove the restrictions from the Ukes. Could end it next year if we do that. And I suspect Trump will.
You've obviously quit keeping up with news from the front. I don't blame you...I'd be depressed too if I were you.whiterock said:LOL "accelerating..." Sure. They were advancing by feet. per day. Now they're advancing by yards per day. It'll take longer than 12 months.....Sam Lowry said:
If both sides were exhausted, Russia's progress wouldn't be accelerating as it has. And it has markedly accelerated since the fall of Avdiivka.
To answer your question, Russia will secure Donetsk in six to twelve months. I'm guessing much closer to six.
By next summer, they'll have increasing difficulty sustaining their efforts. 2026 is when it wraps up. Unless we remove the restrictions from the Ukes. Could end it next year if we do that. And I suspect Trump will.
— Rob Schneider (@RobSchneider) November 6, 2024
Redbrickbear said:— Rob Schneider (@RobSchneider) November 6, 2024
Daveisabovereproach said:Redbrickbear said:— Rob Schneider (@RobSchneider) November 6, 2024
I'm hoping Trump wins so that the Daddy Warbucks money tree will be cut off for this war that, as I posted a while back, still has NO END in sight whatsoever.
Dear NATO…
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) November 6, 2024
Guess who’s back?
pic.twitter.com/9EiPT5b1pd
President-elect Donald Trump’s team has allegedly drafted a proposal to end the ongoing war in Ukraine war, per WSJ.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) November 7, 2024
Allegedly the plan includes significant conditions: Ukraine should give up its NATO membership aspirations for at least 20 years, the freezing of the current…
Doc Holliday said:President-elect Donald Trump’s team has allegedly drafted a proposal to end the ongoing war in Ukraine war, per WSJ.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) November 7, 2024
Allegedly the plan includes significant conditions: Ukraine should give up its NATO membership aspirations for at least 20 years, the freezing of the current…
