That's some funny math. I believe this makes 39 lost, and they started with at least 133.whiterock said:
With this loss, Russia down to approx. 30 remaining (airworthy).Today in the evening Ukrainian sources have reported that Russian Ka-52 was shot down from MANPADS near Robotine, Zaporizhzhia front, by the 47th brigade of Ukraine. https://t.co/EmPy8Vdqcj
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 7, 2023
Now Russian source associated with Russian military aviation seems to confirm the loss. pic.twitter.com/AHbSHGlu8G
As of June the Russian advantage was 4500 to 2500. Russians have had heavier losses since then, based only on observations of 32 Russian and 8 Ukrainian systems destroyed. A good showing by the Ukrainians, but a long way from fire superiority.whiterock said:Ukraine already has achieved fire superiority in artillery, with more systems inbound - Sweden, making another contribution.Redbrickbear said:The US is underwriting the war in Ukraine. Full stop.
— Nathan Carson (@ndcarson) August 7, 2023
It will be the US who decides what the end will be, not Europe. Too bad the Biden Admin doesn’t have a plan beyond “keeping the world safe for democracy.” https://t.co/6UTnMf8meJ
started with about 100....that were airworthy.Sam Lowry said:That's some funny math. I believe this makes 39 lost, and they started with at least 133.whiterock said:
With this loss, Russia down to approx. 30 remaining (airworthy).Today in the evening Ukrainian sources have reported that Russian Ka-52 was shot down from MANPADS near Robotine, Zaporizhzhia front, by the 47th brigade of Ukraine. https://t.co/EmPy8Vdqcj
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 7, 2023
Now Russian source associated with Russian military aviation seems to confirm the loss. pic.twitter.com/AHbSHGlu8G
you need better sources. (and better understanding of warfare would help, too....)Sam Lowry said:As of June the Russian advantage was 4500 to 2500. Russians have had heavier losses since then, based only on observations of 32 Russian and 8 Ukrainian systems destroyed. A good showing by the Ukrainians, but a long way from fire superiority.whiterock said:Ukraine already has achieved fire superiority in artillery, with more systems inbound - Sweden, making another contribution.Redbrickbear said:The US is underwriting the war in Ukraine. Full stop.
— Nathan Carson (@ndcarson) August 7, 2023
It will be the US who decides what the end will be, not Europe. Too bad the Biden Admin doesn’t have a plan beyond “keeping the world safe for democracy.” https://t.co/6UTnMf8meJ
I've seen the Newsweek article. It doesn't address my point. And I'm afraid you need better sources if you think the Ukes are anywhere near second or third lines of defense. Funny how I lack an understanding of warfare, yet the war continues to go exactly as I predicted. Let me guess…we'll know a lot more in 60 days?whiterock said:you need better sources. (and better understanding of warfare would help, too....)Sam Lowry said:As of June the Russian advantage was 4500 to 2500. Russians have had heavier losses since then, based only on observations of 32 Russian and 8 Ukrainian systems destroyed. A good showing by the Ukrainians, but a long way from fire superiority.whiterock said:Ukraine already has achieved fire superiority in artillery, with more systems inbound - Sweden, making another contribution.Redbrickbear said:The US is underwriting the war in Ukraine. Full stop.
— Nathan Carson (@ndcarson) August 7, 2023
It will be the US who decides what the end will be, not Europe. Too bad the Biden Admin doesn’t have a plan beyond “keeping the world safe for democracy.” https://t.co/6UTnMf8meJ
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-god-war-failing-1816722
It's a looming "general systems failure" prompted by degredation that progressively decreases the effectiveness of Russian fires (due to worn barrels and antiquated fire control commands), and forces them to employ ever less capable arty systems (like emplacing T-54 tanks for use as arty). Yes, an emplaced T-54 gun can kill you as dead as an SV-152 tube. But look at the downstream problems. Available inventory for T-54 is heavily weighted toward HE rather than AP, and there is no such thing as a proximity fuse in tank ammo. And that's before we get to issues of windage and elevation. A tank gun is mounted to make direct fires and cannot elevate to make the kind of indirect fires an arty tube is designed for.
When you are emplacing 1950's era tanks to cover for a shortage in arty tubes (due to battlefield losses & attrition), that's your sign that things are not headed in a helpful direction.
When you are traveling to North Korea to obtain tubes and ammo, you are not headed in a helpful direction.
The counter-offensive is STILL in the "counter-battery" phase. Uke will continue to engage in platoon & company sized probing and fixing attacks to provoke Russian arty fire missions as part of battalion or better counter attacks. Ukes will then take out the arty battery with HIMARS or drones or (insert system here.....new ones are coming on line every couple of weeks). Then they advance another few hundred yards. Repeat. Demining occurs behind the line of advance. Ukes are now mostly assaulting 2nd line fortifications. When they clear the third, Russia is not going to have enough arty to interdict the movement into open terrain.
Looking like Uke is engaging in fixing attacks in Kherson and western Zapo to prevent Russian redeployments to the eastern Zapo front. A breakthru there will allow Uke to move on Mariupol, severing the land bridge to Crimea and threatening the entire Kerson-Zapo front with encirclement. Also will be a huge moral victory, recapturing a site of an earlier heroic defense. Not likely to happen this month, but Russians are under severe strain and being degraded daily.
Cannot emphasize enough how badly you are misreading the situation.
So, question I have. Ukraine can't push Russia back, but it is starting to look like Russia can't hold Crimea or Donbas productively. What does Russia get to leave???Sam Lowry said:I've seen the Newsweek article. It doesn't address my point. And I'm afraid you need better sources if you think the Ukes are anywhere near second or third lines of defense. Funny how I lack an understanding of warfare, yet the war continues to go exactly as I predicted. Let me guess…we'll know a lot more in 60 days?whiterock said:you need better sources. (and better understanding of warfare would help, too....)Sam Lowry said:As of June the Russian advantage was 4500 to 2500. Russians have had heavier losses since then, based only on observations of 32 Russian and 8 Ukrainian systems destroyed. A good showing by the Ukrainians, but a long way from fire superiority.whiterock said:Ukraine already has achieved fire superiority in artillery, with more systems inbound - Sweden, making another contribution.Redbrickbear said:The US is underwriting the war in Ukraine. Full stop.
— Nathan Carson (@ndcarson) August 7, 2023
It will be the US who decides what the end will be, not Europe. Too bad the Biden Admin doesn’t have a plan beyond “keeping the world safe for democracy.” https://t.co/6UTnMf8meJ
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-god-war-failing-1816722
It's a looming "general systems failure" prompted by degredation that progressively decreases the effectiveness of Russian fires (due to worn barrels and antiquated fire control commands), and forces them to employ ever less capable arty systems (like emplacing T-54 tanks for use as arty). Yes, an emplaced T-54 gun can kill you as dead as an SV-152 tube. But look at the downstream problems. Available inventory for T-54 is heavily weighted toward HE rather than AP, and there is no such thing as a proximity fuse in tank ammo. And that's before we get to issues of windage and elevation. A tank gun is mounted to make direct fires and cannot elevate to make the kind of indirect fires an arty tube is designed for.
When you are emplacing 1950's era tanks to cover for a shortage in arty tubes (due to battlefield losses & attrition), that's your sign that things are not headed in a helpful direction.
When you are traveling to North Korea to obtain tubes and ammo, you are not headed in a helpful direction.
The counter-offensive is STILL in the "counter-battery" phase. Uke will continue to engage in platoon & company sized probing and fixing attacks to provoke Russian arty fire missions as part of battalion or better counter attacks. Ukes will then take out the arty battery with HIMARS or drones or (insert system here.....new ones are coming on line every couple of weeks). Then they advance another few hundred yards. Repeat. Demining occurs behind the line of advance. Ukes are now mostly assaulting 2nd line fortifications. When they clear the third, Russia is not going to have enough arty to interdict the movement into open terrain.
Looking like Uke is engaging in fixing attacks in Kherson and western Zapo to prevent Russian redeployments to the eastern Zapo front. A breakthru there will allow Uke to move on Mariupol, severing the land bridge to Crimea and threatening the entire Kerson-Zapo front with encirclement. Also will be a huge moral victory, recapturing a site of an earlier heroic defense. Not likely to happen this month, but Russians are under severe strain and being degraded daily.
Cannot emphasize enough how badly you are misreading the situation.
And if this thing continues to go on for a long time, which it already has, there will be more dead Ukrainians which is the entire point of this war.FLBear5630 said:So, question I have. Ukraine can't push Russia back, but it is starting to look like Russia can't hold Crimea or Donbas productively. What does Russia get to leave???Sam Lowry said:I've seen the Newsweek article. It doesn't address my point. And I'm afraid you need better sources if you think the Ukes are anywhere near second or third lines of defense. Funny how I lack an understanding of warfare, yet the war continues to go exactly as I predicted. Let me guess…we'll know a lot more in 60 days?whiterock said:you need better sources. (and better understanding of warfare would help, too....)Sam Lowry said:As of June the Russian advantage was 4500 to 2500. Russians have had heavier losses since then, based only on observations of 32 Russian and 8 Ukrainian systems destroyed. A good showing by the Ukrainians, but a long way from fire superiority.whiterock said:Ukraine already has achieved fire superiority in artillery, with more systems inbound - Sweden, making another contribution.Redbrickbear said:The US is underwriting the war in Ukraine. Full stop.
— Nathan Carson (@ndcarson) August 7, 2023
It will be the US who decides what the end will be, not Europe. Too bad the Biden Admin doesn’t have a plan beyond “keeping the world safe for democracy.” https://t.co/6UTnMf8meJ
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-god-war-failing-1816722
It's a looming "general systems failure" prompted by degredation that progressively decreases the effectiveness of Russian fires (due to worn barrels and antiquated fire control commands), and forces them to employ ever less capable arty systems (like emplacing T-54 tanks for use as arty). Yes, an emplaced T-54 gun can kill you as dead as an SV-152 tube. But look at the downstream problems. Available inventory for T-54 is heavily weighted toward HE rather than AP, and there is no such thing as a proximity fuse in tank ammo. And that's before we get to issues of windage and elevation. A tank gun is mounted to make direct fires and cannot elevate to make the kind of indirect fires an arty tube is designed for.
When you are emplacing 1950's era tanks to cover for a shortage in arty tubes (due to battlefield losses & attrition), that's your sign that things are not headed in a helpful direction.
When you are traveling to North Korea to obtain tubes and ammo, you are not headed in a helpful direction.
The counter-offensive is STILL in the "counter-battery" phase. Uke will continue to engage in platoon & company sized probing and fixing attacks to provoke Russian arty fire missions as part of battalion or better counter attacks. Ukes will then take out the arty battery with HIMARS or drones or (insert system here.....new ones are coming on line every couple of weeks). Then they advance another few hundred yards. Repeat. Demining occurs behind the line of advance. Ukes are now mostly assaulting 2nd line fortifications. When they clear the third, Russia is not going to have enough arty to interdict the movement into open terrain.
Looking like Uke is engaging in fixing attacks in Kherson and western Zapo to prevent Russian redeployments to the eastern Zapo front. A breakthru there will allow Uke to move on Mariupol, severing the land bridge to Crimea and threatening the entire Kerson-Zapo front with encirclement. Also will be a huge moral victory, recapturing a site of an earlier heroic defense. Not likely to happen this month, but Russians are under severe strain and being degraded daily.
Cannot emphasize enough how badly you are misreading the situation.
Not fair, true. They invaded. But the reality is that without NATO troops, Russia is not going to be pushed out of Ukraine. However, Ukraine is not going to let them prosper by their gains. Sad reality is Russia will need to get something to go forward.
Crimea was never on the table. A year ago the Russians might have settled for two mainland oblasts. They'd take four if negotiations opened today. Trouble is that America doesn't negotiate, not even when we're desperate for an off-ramp. We'll hang on until Ukraine collapses, then leave them to their fate and blame them for whatever happens. Same as Afghanistan, etc.FLBear5630 said:So, question I have. Ukraine can't push Russia back, but it is starting to look like Russia can't hold Crimea or Donbas productively. What does Russia get to leave???Sam Lowry said:I've seen the Newsweek article. It doesn't address my point. And I'm afraid you need better sources if you think the Ukes are anywhere near second or third lines of defense. Funny how I lack an understanding of warfare, yet the war continues to go exactly as I predicted. Let me guess…we'll know a lot more in 60 days?whiterock said:you need better sources. (and better understanding of warfare would help, too....)Sam Lowry said:As of June the Russian advantage was 4500 to 2500. Russians have had heavier losses since then, based only on observations of 32 Russian and 8 Ukrainian systems destroyed. A good showing by the Ukrainians, but a long way from fire superiority.whiterock said:Ukraine already has achieved fire superiority in artillery, with more systems inbound - Sweden, making another contribution.Redbrickbear said:The US is underwriting the war in Ukraine. Full stop.
— Nathan Carson (@ndcarson) August 7, 2023
It will be the US who decides what the end will be, not Europe. Too bad the Biden Admin doesn’t have a plan beyond “keeping the world safe for democracy.” https://t.co/6UTnMf8meJ
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-god-war-failing-1816722
It's a looming "general systems failure" prompted by degredation that progressively decreases the effectiveness of Russian fires (due to worn barrels and antiquated fire control commands), and forces them to employ ever less capable arty systems (like emplacing T-54 tanks for use as arty). Yes, an emplaced T-54 gun can kill you as dead as an SV-152 tube. But look at the downstream problems. Available inventory for T-54 is heavily weighted toward HE rather than AP, and there is no such thing as a proximity fuse in tank ammo. And that's before we get to issues of windage and elevation. A tank gun is mounted to make direct fires and cannot elevate to make the kind of indirect fires an arty tube is designed for.
When you are emplacing 1950's era tanks to cover for a shortage in arty tubes (due to battlefield losses & attrition), that's your sign that things are not headed in a helpful direction.
When you are traveling to North Korea to obtain tubes and ammo, you are not headed in a helpful direction.
The counter-offensive is STILL in the "counter-battery" phase. Uke will continue to engage in platoon & company sized probing and fixing attacks to provoke Russian arty fire missions as part of battalion or better counter attacks. Ukes will then take out the arty battery with HIMARS or drones or (insert system here.....new ones are coming on line every couple of weeks). Then they advance another few hundred yards. Repeat. Demining occurs behind the line of advance. Ukes are now mostly assaulting 2nd line fortifications. When they clear the third, Russia is not going to have enough arty to interdict the movement into open terrain.
Looking like Uke is engaging in fixing attacks in Kherson and western Zapo to prevent Russian redeployments to the eastern Zapo front. A breakthru there will allow Uke to move on Mariupol, severing the land bridge to Crimea and threatening the entire Kerson-Zapo front with encirclement. Also will be a huge moral victory, recapturing a site of an earlier heroic defense. Not likely to happen this month, but Russians are under severe strain and being degraded daily.
Cannot emphasize enough how badly you are misreading the situation.
Not fair, true. They invaded. But the reality is that without NATO troops, Russia is not going to be pushed out of Ukraine. However, Ukraine is not going to let them prosper by their gains. Sad reality is Russia will need to get something to go forward.
Sam Lowry said:Crimea was never on the table. A year ago the Russians might have settled for two mainland oblasts. They'd take four if negotiations opened today. Trouble is that America doesn't negotiate, not even when we're desperate for an off-ramp. We'll hang on until Ukraine collapses, then leave them to their fate and blame them for whatever happens. Same as Afghanistan, etc.FLBear5630 said:So, question I have. Ukraine can't push Russia back, but it is starting to look like Russia can't hold Crimea or Donbas productively. What does Russia get to leave???Sam Lowry said:I've seen the Newsweek article. It doesn't address my point. And I'm afraid you need better sources if you think the Ukes are anywhere near second or third lines of defense. Funny how I lack an understanding of warfare, yet the war continues to go exactly as I predicted. Let me guess…we'll know a lot more in 60 days?whiterock said:you need better sources. (and better understanding of warfare would help, too....)Sam Lowry said:As of June the Russian advantage was 4500 to 2500. Russians have had heavier losses since then, based only on observations of 32 Russian and 8 Ukrainian systems destroyed. A good showing by the Ukrainians, but a long way from fire superiority.whiterock said:Ukraine already has achieved fire superiority in artillery, with more systems inbound - Sweden, making another contribution.Redbrickbear said:The US is underwriting the war in Ukraine. Full stop.
— Nathan Carson (@ndcarson) August 7, 2023
It will be the US who decides what the end will be, not Europe. Too bad the Biden Admin doesn’t have a plan beyond “keeping the world safe for democracy.” https://t.co/6UTnMf8meJ
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-god-war-failing-1816722
It's a looming "general systems failure" prompted by degredation that progressively decreases the effectiveness of Russian fires (due to worn barrels and antiquated fire control commands), and forces them to employ ever less capable arty systems (like emplacing T-54 tanks for use as arty). Yes, an emplaced T-54 gun can kill you as dead as an SV-152 tube. But look at the downstream problems. Available inventory for T-54 is heavily weighted toward HE rather than AP, and there is no such thing as a proximity fuse in tank ammo. And that's before we get to issues of windage and elevation. A tank gun is mounted to make direct fires and cannot elevate to make the kind of indirect fires an arty tube is designed for.
When you are emplacing 1950's era tanks to cover for a shortage in arty tubes (due to battlefield losses & attrition), that's your sign that things are not headed in a helpful direction.
When you are traveling to North Korea to obtain tubes and ammo, you are not headed in a helpful direction.
The counter-offensive is STILL in the "counter-battery" phase. Uke will continue to engage in platoon & company sized probing and fixing attacks to provoke Russian arty fire missions as part of battalion or better counter attacks. Ukes will then take out the arty battery with HIMARS or drones or (insert system here.....new ones are coming on line every couple of weeks). Then they advance another few hundred yards. Repeat. Demining occurs behind the line of advance. Ukes are now mostly assaulting 2nd line fortifications. When they clear the third, Russia is not going to have enough arty to interdict the movement into open terrain.
Looking like Uke is engaging in fixing attacks in Kherson and western Zapo to prevent Russian redeployments to the eastern Zapo front. A breakthru there will allow Uke to move on Mariupol, severing the land bridge to Crimea and threatening the entire Kerson-Zapo front with encirclement. Also will be a huge moral victory, recapturing a site of an earlier heroic defense. Not likely to happen this month, but Russians are under severe strain and being degraded daily.
Cannot emphasize enough how badly you are misreading the situation.
Not fair, true. They invaded. But the reality is that without NATO troops, Russia is not going to be pushed out of Ukraine. However, Ukraine is not going to let them prosper by their gains. Sad reality is Russia will need to get something to go forward.
It may not be our place to negotiate, but it's the reality. You weren't complaining when we scuttled every peace deal up to now.FLBear5630 said:Sam Lowry said:Crimea was never on the table. A year ago the Russians might have settled for two mainland oblasts. They'd take four if negotiations opened today. Trouble is that America doesn't negotiate, not even when we're desperate for an off-ramp. We'll hang on until Ukraine collapses, then leave them to their fate and blame them for whatever happens. Same as Afghanistan, etc.FLBear5630 said:So, question I have. Ukraine can't push Russia back, but it is starting to look like Russia can't hold Crimea or Donbas productively. What does Russia get to leave???Sam Lowry said:I've seen the Newsweek article. It doesn't address my point. And I'm afraid you need better sources if you think the Ukes are anywhere near second or third lines of defense. Funny how I lack an understanding of warfare, yet the war continues to go exactly as I predicted. Let me guess…we'll know a lot more in 60 days?whiterock said:you need better sources. (and better understanding of warfare would help, too....)Sam Lowry said:As of June the Russian advantage was 4500 to 2500. Russians have had heavier losses since then, based only on observations of 32 Russian and 8 Ukrainian systems destroyed. A good showing by the Ukrainians, but a long way from fire superiority.whiterock said:Ukraine already has achieved fire superiority in artillery, with more systems inbound - Sweden, making another contribution.Redbrickbear said:The US is underwriting the war in Ukraine. Full stop.
— Nathan Carson (@ndcarson) August 7, 2023
It will be the US who decides what the end will be, not Europe. Too bad the Biden Admin doesn’t have a plan beyond “keeping the world safe for democracy.” https://t.co/6UTnMf8meJ
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-god-war-failing-1816722
It's a looming "general systems failure" prompted by degredation that progressively decreases the effectiveness of Russian fires (due to worn barrels and antiquated fire control commands), and forces them to employ ever less capable arty systems (like emplacing T-54 tanks for use as arty). Yes, an emplaced T-54 gun can kill you as dead as an SV-152 tube. But look at the downstream problems. Available inventory for T-54 is heavily weighted toward HE rather than AP, and there is no such thing as a proximity fuse in tank ammo. And that's before we get to issues of windage and elevation. A tank gun is mounted to make direct fires and cannot elevate to make the kind of indirect fires an arty tube is designed for.
When you are emplacing 1950's era tanks to cover for a shortage in arty tubes (due to battlefield losses & attrition), that's your sign that things are not headed in a helpful direction.
When you are traveling to North Korea to obtain tubes and ammo, you are not headed in a helpful direction.
The counter-offensive is STILL in the "counter-battery" phase. Uke will continue to engage in platoon & company sized probing and fixing attacks to provoke Russian arty fire missions as part of battalion or better counter attacks. Ukes will then take out the arty battery with HIMARS or drones or (insert system here.....new ones are coming on line every couple of weeks). Then they advance another few hundred yards. Repeat. Demining occurs behind the line of advance. Ukes are now mostly assaulting 2nd line fortifications. When they clear the third, Russia is not going to have enough arty to interdict the movement into open terrain.
Looking like Uke is engaging in fixing attacks in Kherson and western Zapo to prevent Russian redeployments to the eastern Zapo front. A breakthru there will allow Uke to move on Mariupol, severing the land bridge to Crimea and threatening the entire Kerson-Zapo front with encirclement. Also will be a huge moral victory, recapturing a site of an earlier heroic defense. Not likely to happen this month, but Russians are under severe strain and being degraded daily.
Cannot emphasize enough how badly you are misreading the situation.
Not fair, true. They invaded. But the reality is that without NATO troops, Russia is not going to be pushed out of Ukraine. However, Ukraine is not going to let them prosper by their gains. Sad reality is Russia will need to get something to go forward.
Well, stories are starting to come out that Russia is starting to re-think Crimea. Source may or may not be valid. But, I can see a swap of Crimea for Donbas and call it a day. Crimea and that bridge is a nightmare to defend.
By the way, it is not the US's place to negotiate off pieces of other countries.
Russia starts to realize it can't hold on to Crimea interview with Refat Chubarov (msn.com)
It is Ukraine's choice how to respond, the US followed suit and helped them get where they wanted to go. Ukraine wants a settled end, I am all for the US and NATO helping get it. If Ukraine wants to fight to the last, I am all for the US and NATO helping them.Sam Lowry said:It may not be our place to negotiate, but it's the reality. You weren't complaining when we scuttled every peace deal up to now.FLBear5630 said:Sam Lowry said:Crimea was never on the table. A year ago the Russians might have settled for two mainland oblasts. They'd take four if negotiations opened today. Trouble is that America doesn't negotiate, not even when we're desperate for an off-ramp. We'll hang on until Ukraine collapses, then leave them to their fate and blame them for whatever happens. Same as Afghanistan, etc.FLBear5630 said:So, question I have. Ukraine can't push Russia back, but it is starting to look like Russia can't hold Crimea or Donbas productively. What does Russia get to leave???Sam Lowry said:I've seen the Newsweek article. It doesn't address my point. And I'm afraid you need better sources if you think the Ukes are anywhere near second or third lines of defense. Funny how I lack an understanding of warfare, yet the war continues to go exactly as I predicted. Let me guess…we'll know a lot more in 60 days?whiterock said:you need better sources. (and better understanding of warfare would help, too....)Sam Lowry said:As of June the Russian advantage was 4500 to 2500. Russians have had heavier losses since then, based only on observations of 32 Russian and 8 Ukrainian systems destroyed. A good showing by the Ukrainians, but a long way from fire superiority.whiterock said:Ukraine already has achieved fire superiority in artillery, with more systems inbound - Sweden, making another contribution.Redbrickbear said:The US is underwriting the war in Ukraine. Full stop.
— Nathan Carson (@ndcarson) August 7, 2023
It will be the US who decides what the end will be, not Europe. Too bad the Biden Admin doesn’t have a plan beyond “keeping the world safe for democracy.” https://t.co/6UTnMf8meJ
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-god-war-failing-1816722
It's a looming "general systems failure" prompted by degredation that progressively decreases the effectiveness of Russian fires (due to worn barrels and antiquated fire control commands), and forces them to employ ever less capable arty systems (like emplacing T-54 tanks for use as arty). Yes, an emplaced T-54 gun can kill you as dead as an SV-152 tube. But look at the downstream problems. Available inventory for T-54 is heavily weighted toward HE rather than AP, and there is no such thing as a proximity fuse in tank ammo. And that's before we get to issues of windage and elevation. A tank gun is mounted to make direct fires and cannot elevate to make the kind of indirect fires an arty tube is designed for.
When you are emplacing 1950's era tanks to cover for a shortage in arty tubes (due to battlefield losses & attrition), that's your sign that things are not headed in a helpful direction.
When you are traveling to North Korea to obtain tubes and ammo, you are not headed in a helpful direction.
The counter-offensive is STILL in the "counter-battery" phase. Uke will continue to engage in platoon & company sized probing and fixing attacks to provoke Russian arty fire missions as part of battalion or better counter attacks. Ukes will then take out the arty battery with HIMARS or drones or (insert system here.....new ones are coming on line every couple of weeks). Then they advance another few hundred yards. Repeat. Demining occurs behind the line of advance. Ukes are now mostly assaulting 2nd line fortifications. When they clear the third, Russia is not going to have enough arty to interdict the movement into open terrain.
Looking like Uke is engaging in fixing attacks in Kherson and western Zapo to prevent Russian redeployments to the eastern Zapo front. A breakthru there will allow Uke to move on Mariupol, severing the land bridge to Crimea and threatening the entire Kerson-Zapo front with encirclement. Also will be a huge moral victory, recapturing a site of an earlier heroic defense. Not likely to happen this month, but Russians are under severe strain and being degraded daily.
Cannot emphasize enough how badly you are misreading the situation.
Not fair, true. They invaded. But the reality is that without NATO troops, Russia is not going to be pushed out of Ukraine. However, Ukraine is not going to let them prosper by their gains. Sad reality is Russia will need to get something to go forward.
Well, stories are starting to come out that Russia is starting to re-think Crimea. Source may or may not be valid. But, I can see a swap of Crimea for Donbas and call it a day. Crimea and that bridge is a nightmare to defend.
By the way, it is not the US's place to negotiate off pieces of other countries.
Russia starts to realize it can't hold on to Crimea interview with Refat Chubarov (msn.com)
I had a hunch that this Chubarov was Crimea's answer to Chalabi. Looks like I wasn't far off. The playbook gets very predictable once you've seen it in action.
That's not really how it works. If Ukraine wants a settlement, Ukraine is liable to get a new government that's more in line with what we want. Kind of like 2014.FLBear5630 said:It is Ukraine's choice how to respond, the US followed suit and helped them get where they wanted to go. Ukraine wants a settled end, I am all for the US and NATO helping get it. If Ukraine wants to fight to the last, I am all for the US and NATO helping them.Sam Lowry said:It may not be our place to negotiate, but it's the reality. You weren't complaining when we scuttled every peace deal up to now.FLBear5630 said:Sam Lowry said:Crimea was never on the table. A year ago the Russians might have settled for two mainland oblasts. They'd take four if negotiations opened today. Trouble is that America doesn't negotiate, not even when we're desperate for an off-ramp. We'll hang on until Ukraine collapses, then leave them to their fate and blame them for whatever happens. Same as Afghanistan, etc.FLBear5630 said:So, question I have. Ukraine can't push Russia back, but it is starting to look like Russia can't hold Crimea or Donbas productively. What does Russia get to leave???Sam Lowry said:I've seen the Newsweek article. It doesn't address my point. And I'm afraid you need better sources if you think the Ukes are anywhere near second or third lines of defense. Funny how I lack an understanding of warfare, yet the war continues to go exactly as I predicted. Let me guess…we'll know a lot more in 60 days?whiterock said:you need better sources. (and better understanding of warfare would help, too....)Sam Lowry said:As of June the Russian advantage was 4500 to 2500. Russians have had heavier losses since then, based only on observations of 32 Russian and 8 Ukrainian systems destroyed. A good showing by the Ukrainians, but a long way from fire superiority.whiterock said:Ukraine already has achieved fire superiority in artillery, with more systems inbound - Sweden, making another contribution.Redbrickbear said:The US is underwriting the war in Ukraine. Full stop.
— Nathan Carson (@ndcarson) August 7, 2023
It will be the US who decides what the end will be, not Europe. Too bad the Biden Admin doesn’t have a plan beyond “keeping the world safe for democracy.” https://t.co/6UTnMf8meJ
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-god-war-failing-1816722
It's a looming "general systems failure" prompted by degredation that progressively decreases the effectiveness of Russian fires (due to worn barrels and antiquated fire control commands), and forces them to employ ever less capable arty systems (like emplacing T-54 tanks for use as arty). Yes, an emplaced T-54 gun can kill you as dead as an SV-152 tube. But look at the downstream problems. Available inventory for T-54 is heavily weighted toward HE rather than AP, and there is no such thing as a proximity fuse in tank ammo. And that's before we get to issues of windage and elevation. A tank gun is mounted to make direct fires and cannot elevate to make the kind of indirect fires an arty tube is designed for.
When you are emplacing 1950's era tanks to cover for a shortage in arty tubes (due to battlefield losses & attrition), that's your sign that things are not headed in a helpful direction.
When you are traveling to North Korea to obtain tubes and ammo, you are not headed in a helpful direction.
The counter-offensive is STILL in the "counter-battery" phase. Uke will continue to engage in platoon & company sized probing and fixing attacks to provoke Russian arty fire missions as part of battalion or better counter attacks. Ukes will then take out the arty battery with HIMARS or drones or (insert system here.....new ones are coming on line every couple of weeks). Then they advance another few hundred yards. Repeat. Demining occurs behind the line of advance. Ukes are now mostly assaulting 2nd line fortifications. When they clear the third, Russia is not going to have enough arty to interdict the movement into open terrain.
Looking like Uke is engaging in fixing attacks in Kherson and western Zapo to prevent Russian redeployments to the eastern Zapo front. A breakthru there will allow Uke to move on Mariupol, severing the land bridge to Crimea and threatening the entire Kerson-Zapo front with encirclement. Also will be a huge moral victory, recapturing a site of an earlier heroic defense. Not likely to happen this month, but Russians are under severe strain and being degraded daily.
Cannot emphasize enough how badly you are misreading the situation.
Not fair, true. They invaded. But the reality is that without NATO troops, Russia is not going to be pushed out of Ukraine. However, Ukraine is not going to let them prosper by their gains. Sad reality is Russia will need to get something to go forward.
Well, stories are starting to come out that Russia is starting to re-think Crimea. Source may or may not be valid. But, I can see a swap of Crimea for Donbas and call it a day. Crimea and that bridge is a nightmare to defend.
By the way, it is not the US's place to negotiate off pieces of other countries.
Russia starts to realize it can't hold on to Crimea interview with Refat Chubarov (msn.com)
I had a hunch that this Chubarov was Crimea's answer to Chalabi. Looks like I wasn't far off. The playbook gets very predictable once you've seen it in action.
You reading the World Socialist Web Site again? You know they get you worked up everytime you go on there...Sam Lowry said:That's not really how it works. If Ukraine wants a settlement, Ukraine is liable to get a new government that's more in line with what we want. Kind of like 2014.FLBear5630 said:It is Ukraine's choice how to respond, the US followed suit and helped them get where they wanted to go. Ukraine wants a settled end, I am all for the US and NATO helping get it. If Ukraine wants to fight to the last, I am all for the US and NATO helping them.Sam Lowry said:It may not be our place to negotiate, but it's the reality. You weren't complaining when we scuttled every peace deal up to now.FLBear5630 said:Sam Lowry said:Crimea was never on the table. A year ago the Russians might have settled for two mainland oblasts. They'd take four if negotiations opened today. Trouble is that America doesn't negotiate, not even when we're desperate for an off-ramp. We'll hang on until Ukraine collapses, then leave them to their fate and blame them for whatever happens. Same as Afghanistan, etc.FLBear5630 said:So, question I have. Ukraine can't push Russia back, but it is starting to look like Russia can't hold Crimea or Donbas productively. What does Russia get to leave???Sam Lowry said:I've seen the Newsweek article. It doesn't address my point. And I'm afraid you need better sources if you think the Ukes are anywhere near second or third lines of defense. Funny how I lack an understanding of warfare, yet the war continues to go exactly as I predicted. Let me guess…we'll know a lot more in 60 days?whiterock said:you need better sources. (and better understanding of warfare would help, too....)Sam Lowry said:As of June the Russian advantage was 4500 to 2500. Russians have had heavier losses since then, based only on observations of 32 Russian and 8 Ukrainian systems destroyed. A good showing by the Ukrainians, but a long way from fire superiority.whiterock said:Ukraine already has achieved fire superiority in artillery, with more systems inbound - Sweden, making another contribution.Redbrickbear said:The US is underwriting the war in Ukraine. Full stop.
— Nathan Carson (@ndcarson) August 7, 2023
It will be the US who decides what the end will be, not Europe. Too bad the Biden Admin doesn’t have a plan beyond “keeping the world safe for democracy.” https://t.co/6UTnMf8meJ
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-god-war-failing-1816722
It's a looming "general systems failure" prompted by degredation that progressively decreases the effectiveness of Russian fires (due to worn barrels and antiquated fire control commands), and forces them to employ ever less capable arty systems (like emplacing T-54 tanks for use as arty). Yes, an emplaced T-54 gun can kill you as dead as an SV-152 tube. But look at the downstream problems. Available inventory for T-54 is heavily weighted toward HE rather than AP, and there is no such thing as a proximity fuse in tank ammo. And that's before we get to issues of windage and elevation. A tank gun is mounted to make direct fires and cannot elevate to make the kind of indirect fires an arty tube is designed for.
When you are emplacing 1950's era tanks to cover for a shortage in arty tubes (due to battlefield losses & attrition), that's your sign that things are not headed in a helpful direction.
When you are traveling to North Korea to obtain tubes and ammo, you are not headed in a helpful direction.
The counter-offensive is STILL in the "counter-battery" phase. Uke will continue to engage in platoon & company sized probing and fixing attacks to provoke Russian arty fire missions as part of battalion or better counter attacks. Ukes will then take out the arty battery with HIMARS or drones or (insert system here.....new ones are coming on line every couple of weeks). Then they advance another few hundred yards. Repeat. Demining occurs behind the line of advance. Ukes are now mostly assaulting 2nd line fortifications. When they clear the third, Russia is not going to have enough arty to interdict the movement into open terrain.
Looking like Uke is engaging in fixing attacks in Kherson and western Zapo to prevent Russian redeployments to the eastern Zapo front. A breakthru there will allow Uke to move on Mariupol, severing the land bridge to Crimea and threatening the entire Kerson-Zapo front with encirclement. Also will be a huge moral victory, recapturing a site of an earlier heroic defense. Not likely to happen this month, but Russians are under severe strain and being degraded daily.
Cannot emphasize enough how badly you are misreading the situation.
Not fair, true. They invaded. But the reality is that without NATO troops, Russia is not going to be pushed out of Ukraine. However, Ukraine is not going to let them prosper by their gains. Sad reality is Russia will need to get something to go forward.
Well, stories are starting to come out that Russia is starting to re-think Crimea. Source may or may not be valid. But, I can see a swap of Crimea for Donbas and call it a day. Crimea and that bridge is a nightmare to defend.
By the way, it is not the US's place to negotiate off pieces of other countries.
Russia starts to realize it can't hold on to Crimea interview with Refat Chubarov (msn.com)
I had a hunch that this Chubarov was Crimea's answer to Chalabi. Looks like I wasn't far off. The playbook gets very predictable once you've seen it in action.
If we figure out what kind of Government we want here, perhaps we can figure out what we want in Ukraine.Sam Lowry said:That's not really how it works. If Ukraine wants a settlement, Ukraine is liable to get a new government that's more in line with what we want. Kind of like 2014.FLBear5630 said:It is Ukraine's choice how to respond, the US followed suit and helped them get where they wanted to go. Ukraine wants a settled end, I am all for the US and NATO helping get it. If Ukraine wants to fight to the last, I am all for the US and NATO helping them.Sam Lowry said:It may not be our place to negotiate, but it's the reality. You weren't complaining when we scuttled every peace deal up to now.FLBear5630 said:Sam Lowry said:Crimea was never on the table. A year ago the Russians might have settled for two mainland oblasts. They'd take four if negotiations opened today. Trouble is that America doesn't negotiate, not even when we're desperate for an off-ramp. We'll hang on until Ukraine collapses, then leave them to their fate and blame them for whatever happens. Same as Afghanistan, etc.FLBear5630 said:So, question I have. Ukraine can't push Russia back, but it is starting to look like Russia can't hold Crimea or Donbas productively. What does Russia get to leave???Sam Lowry said:I've seen the Newsweek article. It doesn't address my point. And I'm afraid you need better sources if you think the Ukes are anywhere near second or third lines of defense. Funny how I lack an understanding of warfare, yet the war continues to go exactly as I predicted. Let me guess…we'll know a lot more in 60 days?whiterock said:you need better sources. (and better understanding of warfare would help, too....)Sam Lowry said:As of June the Russian advantage was 4500 to 2500. Russians have had heavier losses since then, based only on observations of 32 Russian and 8 Ukrainian systems destroyed. A good showing by the Ukrainians, but a long way from fire superiority.whiterock said:Ukraine already has achieved fire superiority in artillery, with more systems inbound - Sweden, making another contribution.Redbrickbear said:The US is underwriting the war in Ukraine. Full stop.
— Nathan Carson (@ndcarson) August 7, 2023
It will be the US who decides what the end will be, not Europe. Too bad the Biden Admin doesn’t have a plan beyond “keeping the world safe for democracy.” https://t.co/6UTnMf8meJ
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-god-war-failing-1816722
It's a looming "general systems failure" prompted by degredation that progressively decreases the effectiveness of Russian fires (due to worn barrels and antiquated fire control commands), and forces them to employ ever less capable arty systems (like emplacing T-54 tanks for use as arty). Yes, an emplaced T-54 gun can kill you as dead as an SV-152 tube. But look at the downstream problems. Available inventory for T-54 is heavily weighted toward HE rather than AP, and there is no such thing as a proximity fuse in tank ammo. And that's before we get to issues of windage and elevation. A tank gun is mounted to make direct fires and cannot elevate to make the kind of indirect fires an arty tube is designed for.
When you are emplacing 1950's era tanks to cover for a shortage in arty tubes (due to battlefield losses & attrition), that's your sign that things are not headed in a helpful direction.
When you are traveling to North Korea to obtain tubes and ammo, you are not headed in a helpful direction.
The counter-offensive is STILL in the "counter-battery" phase. Uke will continue to engage in platoon & company sized probing and fixing attacks to provoke Russian arty fire missions as part of battalion or better counter attacks. Ukes will then take out the arty battery with HIMARS or drones or (insert system here.....new ones are coming on line every couple of weeks). Then they advance another few hundred yards. Repeat. Demining occurs behind the line of advance. Ukes are now mostly assaulting 2nd line fortifications. When they clear the third, Russia is not going to have enough arty to interdict the movement into open terrain.
Looking like Uke is engaging in fixing attacks in Kherson and western Zapo to prevent Russian redeployments to the eastern Zapo front. A breakthru there will allow Uke to move on Mariupol, severing the land bridge to Crimea and threatening the entire Kerson-Zapo front with encirclement. Also will be a huge moral victory, recapturing a site of an earlier heroic defense. Not likely to happen this month, but Russians are under severe strain and being degraded daily.
Cannot emphasize enough how badly you are misreading the situation.
Not fair, true. They invaded. But the reality is that without NATO troops, Russia is not going to be pushed out of Ukraine. However, Ukraine is not going to let them prosper by their gains. Sad reality is Russia will need to get something to go forward.
Well, stories are starting to come out that Russia is starting to re-think Crimea. Source may or may not be valid. But, I can see a swap of Crimea for Donbas and call it a day. Crimea and that bridge is a nightmare to defend.
By the way, it is not the US's place to negotiate off pieces of other countries.
Russia starts to realize it can't hold on to Crimea interview with Refat Chubarov (msn.com)
I had a hunch that this Chubarov was Crimea's answer to Chalabi. Looks like I wasn't far off. The playbook gets very predictable once you've seen it in action.
Is this the greatest 10 seconds in CNN history? pic.twitter.com/ohbKxDs47K
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 11, 2023
Ukraine is reaching an area where a settlement may be in order. They may lose Donbas, but maybe get Crimea back. Or, lose both and get NATO membership. There is a time when you can push a deal through and get what you want, I am feeling like we are getting close to that time. If you miss it, you risk getting nothing.TWD 1974 said:If we figure out what kind of Government we want here, perhaps we can figure out what we want in Ukraine.Sam Lowry said:That's not really how it works. If Ukraine wants a settlement, Ukraine is liable to get a new government that's more in line with what we want. Kind of like 2014.FLBear5630 said:It is Ukraine's choice how to respond, the US followed suit and helped them get where they wanted to go. Ukraine wants a settled end, I am all for the US and NATO helping get it. If Ukraine wants to fight to the last, I am all for the US and NATO helping them.Sam Lowry said:It may not be our place to negotiate, but it's the reality. You weren't complaining when we scuttled every peace deal up to now.FLBear5630 said:Sam Lowry said:Crimea was never on the table. A year ago the Russians might have settled for two mainland oblasts. They'd take four if negotiations opened today. Trouble is that America doesn't negotiate, not even when we're desperate for an off-ramp. We'll hang on until Ukraine collapses, then leave them to their fate and blame them for whatever happens. Same as Afghanistan, etc.FLBear5630 said:So, question I have. Ukraine can't push Russia back, but it is starting to look like Russia can't hold Crimea or Donbas productively. What does Russia get to leave???Sam Lowry said:I've seen the Newsweek article. It doesn't address my point. And I'm afraid you need better sources if you think the Ukes are anywhere near second or third lines of defense. Funny how I lack an understanding of warfare, yet the war continues to go exactly as I predicted. Let me guess…we'll know a lot more in 60 days?whiterock said:you need better sources. (and better understanding of warfare would help, too....)Sam Lowry said:As of June the Russian advantage was 4500 to 2500. Russians have had heavier losses since then, based only on observations of 32 Russian and 8 Ukrainian systems destroyed. A good showing by the Ukrainians, but a long way from fire superiority.whiterock said:Ukraine already has achieved fire superiority in artillery, with more systems inbound - Sweden, making another contribution.Redbrickbear said:The US is underwriting the war in Ukraine. Full stop.
— Nathan Carson (@ndcarson) August 7, 2023
It will be the US who decides what the end will be, not Europe. Too bad the Biden Admin doesn’t have a plan beyond “keeping the world safe for democracy.” https://t.co/6UTnMf8meJ
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-god-war-failing-1816722
It's a looming "general systems failure" prompted by degredation that progressively decreases the effectiveness of Russian fires (due to worn barrels and antiquated fire control commands), and forces them to employ ever less capable arty systems (like emplacing T-54 tanks for use as arty). Yes, an emplaced T-54 gun can kill you as dead as an SV-152 tube. But look at the downstream problems. Available inventory for T-54 is heavily weighted toward HE rather than AP, and there is no such thing as a proximity fuse in tank ammo. And that's before we get to issues of windage and elevation. A tank gun is mounted to make direct fires and cannot elevate to make the kind of indirect fires an arty tube is designed for.
When you are emplacing 1950's era tanks to cover for a shortage in arty tubes (due to battlefield losses & attrition), that's your sign that things are not headed in a helpful direction.
When you are traveling to North Korea to obtain tubes and ammo, you are not headed in a helpful direction.
The counter-offensive is STILL in the "counter-battery" phase. Uke will continue to engage in platoon & company sized probing and fixing attacks to provoke Russian arty fire missions as part of battalion or better counter attacks. Ukes will then take out the arty battery with HIMARS or drones or (insert system here.....new ones are coming on line every couple of weeks). Then they advance another few hundred yards. Repeat. Demining occurs behind the line of advance. Ukes are now mostly assaulting 2nd line fortifications. When they clear the third, Russia is not going to have enough arty to interdict the movement into open terrain.
Looking like Uke is engaging in fixing attacks in Kherson and western Zapo to prevent Russian redeployments to the eastern Zapo front. A breakthru there will allow Uke to move on Mariupol, severing the land bridge to Crimea and threatening the entire Kerson-Zapo front with encirclement. Also will be a huge moral victory, recapturing a site of an earlier heroic defense. Not likely to happen this month, but Russians are under severe strain and being degraded daily.
Cannot emphasize enough how badly you are misreading the situation.
Not fair, true. They invaded. But the reality is that without NATO troops, Russia is not going to be pushed out of Ukraine. However, Ukraine is not going to let them prosper by their gains. Sad reality is Russia will need to get something to go forward.
Well, stories are starting to come out that Russia is starting to re-think Crimea. Source may or may not be valid. But, I can see a swap of Crimea for Donbas and call it a day. Crimea and that bridge is a nightmare to defend.
By the way, it is not the US's place to negotiate off pieces of other countries.
Russia starts to realize it can't hold on to Crimea interview with Refat Chubarov (msn.com)
I had a hunch that this Chubarov was Crimea's answer to Chalabi. Looks like I wasn't far off. The playbook gets very predictable once you've seen it in action.
I am certainly no military expert but have read enough to know how difficult it is to defeat an enemy from an entrenched fortified position (analogy-France late 1944). Without Air dominance, and a clear superiority in artillery, does not seem likely. This looks like a stalemate till the 2024 elections.
It's striking how often media profiles of Victoria Nuland -- almost all of which are reverential of course --mention in passing, as though it's nothing, the vital role she played in choosing Ukraine's next president after the elected one was removed.https://t.co/TkzL8v2uOg pic.twitter.com/GgfwKld1Af
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) August 11, 2023
CNN's Jonah Goldberg: "Small donors are actually one of the biggest problems for democracy and the GOP. Large donors actually have a strategic view about moderation, who can win, and who can't. Small donors are really just venting their spleen with their credit card..."
— KanekoaTheGreat (@KanekoaTheGreat) August 10, 2023
🙄🙄 pic.twitter.com/Bb0j4aTGMD
Is this the greatest 10 seconds in CNN history? pic.twitter.com/ohbKxDs47K
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 11, 2023
CNN did an outstanding job of selecting a focus group that is not at all representative of the GOP at large on the Ukraine question.Jacques Strap said:Is this the greatest 10 seconds in CNN history? pic.twitter.com/ohbKxDs47K
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 11, 2023
CNN responds... the focus group is at fault for not watching enough CNN. These poor focus group folks are about to get introduced to cancellation tactics from the "I know better than you" crowd on social media.
You're about a year too early.Quote:Ukraine is reaching an area where a settlement may be in order. They may lose Donbas, but maybe get Crimea back. Or, lose both and get NATO membership. There is a time when you can push a deal through and get what you want, I am feeling like we are getting close to that time. If you miss it, you risk getting nothing.Quote:If we figure out what kind of Government we want here, perhaps we can figure out what we want in Ukraine.Quote:That's not really how it works. If Ukraine wants a settlement, Ukraine is liable to get a new government that's more in line with what we want. Kind of like 2014.Quote:It is Ukraine's choice how to respond, the US followed suit and helped them get where they wanted to go. Ukraine wants a settled end, I am all for the US and NATO helping get it. If Ukraine wants to fight to the last, I am all for the US and NATO helping them.Quote:It may not be our place to negotiate, but it's the reality. You weren't complaining when we scuttled every peace deal up to now.Quote:Quote:Crimea was never on the table. A year ago the Russians might have settled for two mainland oblasts. They'd take four if negotiations opened today. Trouble is that America doesn't negotiate, not even when we're desperate for an off-ramp. We'll hang on until Ukraine collapses, then leave them to their fate and blame them for whatever happens. Same as Afghanistan, etc.Quote:So, question I have. Ukraine can't push Russia back, but it is starting to look like Russia can't hold Crimea or Donbas productively. What does Russia get to leave???Quote:I've seen the Newsweek article. It doesn't address my point. And I'm afraid you need better sources if you think the Ukes are anywhere near second or third lines of defense. Funny how I lack an understanding of warfare, yet the war continues to go exactly as I predicted. Let me guess…we'll know a lot more in 60 days?Quote:
you need better sources. (and better understanding of warfare would help, too....)
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-god-war-failing-1816722
It's a looming "general systems failure" prompted by degredation that progressively decreases the effectiveness of Russian fires (due to worn barrels and antiquated fire control commands), and forces them to employ ever less capable arty systems (like emplacing T-54 tanks for use as arty). Yes, an emplaced T-54 gun can kill you as dead as an SV-152 tube. But look at the downstream problems. Available inventory for T-54 is heavily weighted toward HE rather than AP, and there is no such thing as a proximity fuse in tank ammo. And that's before we get to issues of windage and elevation. A tank gun is mounted to make direct fires and cannot elevate to make the kind of indirect fires an arty tube is designed for.
When you are emplacing 1950's era tanks to cover for a shortage in arty tubes (due to battlefield losses & attrition), that's your sign that things are not headed in a helpful direction.
When you are traveling to North Korea to obtain tubes and ammo, you are not headed in a helpful direction.
The counter-offensive is STILL in the "counter-battery" phase. Uke will continue to engage in platoon & company sized probing and fixing attacks to provoke Russian arty fire missions as part of battalion or better counter attacks. Ukes will then take out the arty battery with HIMARS or drones or (insert system here.....new ones are coming on line every couple of weeks). Then they advance another few hundred yards. Repeat. Demining occurs behind the line of advance. Ukes are now mostly assaulting 2nd line fortifications. When they clear the third, Russia is not going to have enough arty to interdict the movement into open terrain.
Looking like Uke is engaging in fixing attacks in Kherson and western Zapo to prevent Russian redeployments to the eastern Zapo front. A breakthru there will allow Uke to move on Mariupol, severing the land bridge to Crimea and threatening the entire Kerson-Zapo front with encirclement. Also will be a huge moral victory, recapturing a site of an earlier heroic defense. Not likely to happen this month, but Russians are under severe strain and being degraded daily.
Cannot emphasize enough how badly you are misreading the situation.
Not fair, true. They invaded. But the reality is that without NATO troops, Russia is not going to be pushed out of Ukraine. However, Ukraine is not going to let them prosper by their gains. Sad reality is Russia will need to get something to go forward.
Well, stories are starting to come out that Russia is starting to re-think Crimea. Source may or may not be valid. But, I can see a swap of Crimea for Donbas and call it a day. Crimea and that bridge is a nightmare to defend.
By the way, it is not the US's place to negotiate off pieces of other countries.
Russia starts to realize it can't hold on to Crimea interview with Refat Chubarov (msn.com)
I had a hunch that this Chubarov was Crimea's answer to Chalabi. Looks like I wasn't far off. The playbook gets very predictable once you've seen it in action.
I am certainly no military expert but have read enough to know how difficult it is to defeat an enemy from an entrenched fortified position (analogy-France late 1944). Without Air dominance, and a clear superiority in artillery, does not seem likely. This looks like a stalemate till the 2024 elections.
I can go there...whiterock said:You're about a year too early.Quote:Ukraine is reaching an area where a settlement may be in order. They may lose Donbas, but maybe get Crimea back. Or, lose both and get NATO membership. There is a time when you can push a deal through and get what you want, I am feeling like we are getting close to that time. If you miss it, you risk getting nothing.Quote:If we figure out what kind of Government we want here, perhaps we can figure out what we want in Ukraine.Quote:That's not really how it works. If Ukraine wants a settlement, Ukraine is liable to get a new government that's more in line with what we want. Kind of like 2014.Quote:It is Ukraine's choice how to respond, the US followed suit and helped them get where they wanted to go. Ukraine wants a settled end, I am all for the US and NATO helping get it. If Ukraine wants to fight to the last, I am all for the US and NATO helping them.Quote:It may not be our place to negotiate, but it's the reality. You weren't complaining when we scuttled every peace deal up to now.Quote:Quote:Crimea was never on the table. A year ago the Russians might have settled for two mainland oblasts. They'd take four if negotiations opened today. Trouble is that America doesn't negotiate, not even when we're desperate for an off-ramp. We'll hang on until Ukraine collapses, then leave them to their fate and blame them for whatever happens. Same as Afghanistan, etc.Quote:So, question I have. Ukraine can't push Russia back, but it is starting to look like Russia can't hold Crimea or Donbas productively. What does Russia get to leave???Quote:I've seen the Newsweek article. It doesn't address my point. And I'm afraid you need better sources if you think the Ukes are anywhere near second or third lines of defense. Funny how I lack an understanding of warfare, yet the war continues to go exactly as I predicted. Let me guess…we'll know a lot more in 60 days?Quote:
you need better sources. (and better understanding of warfare would help, too....)
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-god-war-failing-1816722
It's a looming "general systems failure" prompted by degredation that progressively decreases the effectiveness of Russian fires (due to worn barrels and antiquated fire control commands), and forces them to employ ever less capable arty systems (like emplacing T-54 tanks for use as arty). Yes, an emplaced T-54 gun can kill you as dead as an SV-152 tube. But look at the downstream problems. Available inventory for T-54 is heavily weighted toward HE rather than AP, and there is no such thing as a proximity fuse in tank ammo. And that's before we get to issues of windage and elevation. A tank gun is mounted to make direct fires and cannot elevate to make the kind of indirect fires an arty tube is designed for.
When you are emplacing 1950's era tanks to cover for a shortage in arty tubes (due to battlefield losses & attrition), that's your sign that things are not headed in a helpful direction.
When you are traveling to North Korea to obtain tubes and ammo, you are not headed in a helpful direction.
The counter-offensive is STILL in the "counter-battery" phase. Uke will continue to engage in platoon & company sized probing and fixing attacks to provoke Russian arty fire missions as part of battalion or better counter attacks. Ukes will then take out the arty battery with HIMARS or drones or (insert system here.....new ones are coming on line every couple of weeks). Then they advance another few hundred yards. Repeat. Demining occurs behind the line of advance. Ukes are now mostly assaulting 2nd line fortifications. When they clear the third, Russia is not going to have enough arty to interdict the movement into open terrain.
Looking like Uke is engaging in fixing attacks in Kherson and western Zapo to prevent Russian redeployments to the eastern Zapo front. A breakthru there will allow Uke to move on Mariupol, severing the land bridge to Crimea and threatening the entire Kerson-Zapo front with encirclement. Also will be a huge moral victory, recapturing a site of an earlier heroic defense. Not likely to happen this month, but Russians are under severe strain and being degraded daily.
Cannot emphasize enough how badly you are misreading the situation.
Not fair, true. They invaded. But the reality is that without NATO troops, Russia is not going to be pushed out of Ukraine. However, Ukraine is not going to let them prosper by their gains. Sad reality is Russia will need to get something to go forward.
Well, stories are starting to come out that Russia is starting to re-think Crimea. Source may or may not be valid. But, I can see a swap of Crimea for Donbas and call it a day. Crimea and that bridge is a nightmare to defend.
By the way, it is not the US's place to negotiate off pieces of other countries.
Russia starts to realize it can't hold on to Crimea interview with Refat Chubarov (msn.com)
I had a hunch that this Chubarov was Crimea's answer to Chalabi. Looks like I wasn't far off. The playbook gets very predictable once you've seen it in action.
I am certainly no military expert but have read enough to know how difficult it is to defeat an enemy from an entrenched fortified position (analogy-France late 1944). Without Air dominance, and a clear superiority in artillery, does not seem likely. This looks like a stalemate till the 2024 elections.
Ukrainian #counteroffensive operations appear to be forcing the Russian military to laterally redeploy Russian forces defending in western #Zaporizhia Oblast, indicating that the Ukrainian effort there may be significantly degrading Russian defenses.🧵https://t.co/Fyqk5AZ67V https://t.co/LZJaN3L009 pic.twitter.com/OJxturc1ic
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) August 12, 2023
CNN - Most Americans oppose Congress authorizing additional funding to support Ukraine in its war with Russia, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, as the public splits over whether the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine.whiterock said:CNN did an outstanding job of selecting a focus group that is not at all representative of the GOP at large on the Ukraine question.Jacques Strap said:Is this the greatest 10 seconds in CNN history? pic.twitter.com/ohbKxDs47K
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 11, 2023
CNN responds... the focus group is at fault for not watching enough CNN. These poor focus group folks are about to get introduced to cancellation tactics from the "I know better than you" crowd on social media.
Stopping now is a waste of resources, either we are in to get to a settled peace or drive Russia out. To shell out that much and walk away now, would be criminal.Sam Lowry said:CNN - Most Americans oppose Congress authorizing additional funding to support Ukraine in its war with Russia, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, as the public splits over whether the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine.whiterock said:CNN did an outstanding job of selecting a focus group that is not at all representative of the GOP at large on the Ukraine question.Jacques Strap said:Is this the greatest 10 seconds in CNN history? pic.twitter.com/ohbKxDs47K
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 11, 2023
CNN responds... the focus group is at fault for not watching enough CNN. These poor focus group folks are about to get introduced to cancellation tactics from the "I know better than you" crowd on social media.
Republicans broadly say that Congress should not authorize new funding (71%) and that the US has done enough to assist Ukraine (59%). Among Democrats, most say the opposite, 62% favor additional funding and 61% say that the US should do more.
Within both parties, there are splits by ideology. On providing additional funding, liberal Democrats are far and away the most supportive, 74% back it compared with 51% of moderate or conservative Democrats. Among Republicans, about three-quarters of conservatives oppose new funding (76%) compared with 61% of moderate or liberal Republicans.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html
Our "support" is by far the biggest obstacle to a settled peace. And Russia isn't leaving.FLBear5630 said:Stopping now is a waste of resources, either we are in to get to a settled peace or drive Russia out. To shell out that much and walk away now, would be criminal.Sam Lowry said:CNN - Most Americans oppose Congress authorizing additional funding to support Ukraine in its war with Russia, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, as the public splits over whether the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine.whiterock said:CNN did an outstanding job of selecting a focus group that is not at all representative of the GOP at large on the Ukraine question.Jacques Strap said:Is this the greatest 10 seconds in CNN history? pic.twitter.com/ohbKxDs47K
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 11, 2023
CNN responds... the focus group is at fault for not watching enough CNN. These poor focus group folks are about to get introduced to cancellation tactics from the "I know better than you" crowd on social media.
Republicans broadly say that Congress should not authorize new funding (71%) and that the US has done enough to assist Ukraine (59%). Among Democrats, most say the opposite, 62% favor additional funding and 61% say that the US should do more.
Within both parties, there are splits by ideology. On providing additional funding, liberal Democrats are far and away the most supportive, 74% back it compared with 51% of moderate or conservative Democrats. Among Republicans, about three-quarters of conservatives oppose new funding (76%) compared with 61% of moderate or liberal Republicans.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html
Sam Lowry said:Our "support" is by far the biggest obstacle to a settled peace. And Russia isn't leaving.FLBear5630 said:Stopping now is a waste of resources, either we are in to get to a settled peace or drive Russia out. To shell out that much and walk away now, would be criminal.Sam Lowry said:CNN - Most Americans oppose Congress authorizing additional funding to support Ukraine in its war with Russia, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, as the public splits over whether the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine.whiterock said:CNN did an outstanding job of selecting a focus group that is not at all representative of the GOP at large on the Ukraine question.Jacques Strap said:Is this the greatest 10 seconds in CNN history? pic.twitter.com/ohbKxDs47K
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 11, 2023
CNN responds... the focus group is at fault for not watching enough CNN. These poor focus group folks are about to get introduced to cancellation tactics from the "I know better than you" crowd on social media.
Republicans broadly say that Congress should not authorize new funding (71%) and that the US has done enough to assist Ukraine (59%). Among Democrats, most say the opposite, 62% favor additional funding and 61% say that the US should do more.
Within both parties, there are splits by ideology. On providing additional funding, liberal Democrats are far and away the most supportive, 74% back it compared with 51% of moderate or conservative Democrats. Among Republicans, about three-quarters of conservatives oppose new funding (76%) compared with 61% of moderate or liberal Republicans.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html
Making Crimea untenable for Russian forces is the operational priority. https://t.co/8QC4EdBoMM
— Ben Hodges (@general_ben) August 12, 2023
Sam Lowry said:CNN - Most Americans oppose Congress authorizing additional funding to support Ukraine in its war with Russia, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, as the public splits over whether the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine.whiterock said:CNN did an outstanding job of selecting a focus group that is not at all representative of the GOP at large on the Ukraine question.Jacques Strap said:Is this the greatest 10 seconds in CNN history? pic.twitter.com/ohbKxDs47K
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 11, 2023
CNN responds... the focus group is at fault for not watching enough CNN. These poor focus group folks are about to get introduced to cancellation tactics from the "I know better than you" crowd on social media.
Republicans broadly say that Congress should not authorize new funding (71%) and that the US has done enough to assist Ukraine (59%). Among Democrats, most say the opposite, 62% favor additional funding and 61% say that the US should do more.
Within both parties, there are splits by ideology. On providing additional funding, liberal Democrats are far and away the most supportive, 74% back it compared with 51% of moderate or conservative Democrats. Among Republicans, about three-quarters of conservatives oppose new funding (76%) compared with 61% of moderate or liberal Republicans.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html
Sam Lowry said:Our "support" is by far the biggest obstacle to a settled peace. And Russia isn't leaving.FLBear5630 said:Stopping now is a waste of resources, either we are in to get to a settled peace or drive Russia out. To shell out that much and walk away now, would be criminal.Sam Lowry said:CNN - Most Americans oppose Congress authorizing additional funding to support Ukraine in its war with Russia, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, as the public splits over whether the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine.whiterock said:CNN did an outstanding job of selecting a focus group that is not at all representative of the GOP at large on the Ukraine question.Jacques Strap said:Is this the greatest 10 seconds in CNN history? pic.twitter.com/ohbKxDs47K
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 11, 2023
CNN responds... the focus group is at fault for not watching enough CNN. These poor focus group folks are about to get introduced to cancellation tactics from the "I know better than you" crowd on social media.
Republicans broadly say that Congress should not authorize new funding (71%) and that the US has done enough to assist Ukraine (59%). Among Democrats, most say the opposite, 62% favor additional funding and 61% say that the US should do more.
Within both parties, there are splits by ideology. On providing additional funding, liberal Democrats are far and away the most supportive, 74% back it compared with 51% of moderate or conservative Democrats. Among Republicans, about three-quarters of conservatives oppose new funding (76%) compared with 61% of moderate or liberal Republicans.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html
OLD CLIP CIRCULATING OF FORMER CIA DIRECTOR MIKE MORELL ADVOCATING TERRORISM — HE WAS ALSO A BIG ADVOCATE FOR DRONING CIVILIANS AND APPLYING TORTURE TECHNIQUES TO POWs pic.twitter.com/4Og94WkL5b
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) August 12, 2023
It’s realhttps://t.co/Sgkup8OYAA
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) August 12, 2023
BREAKING: Ukraine's Black Sea city of Odesa has reopened some of its beaches for the first time since Russia's invasion, please keep the people of Ukraine in your prayers. pic.twitter.com/HINhjALLct
— I Meme Therefore I Am 🇺🇸 (@ImMeme0) August 12, 2023
Progress in the war allows a city to reopen beaches and this is a bad thing?Redbrickbear said:BREAKING: Ukraine's Black Sea city of Odesa has reopened some of its beaches for the first time since Russia's invasion, please keep the people of Ukraine in your prayers. pic.twitter.com/HINhjALLct
— I Meme Therefore I Am 🇺🇸 (@ImMeme0) August 12, 2023
Morell is just describing the rules of the game. Everyone plays by the same rules......Redbrickbear said:
We should never forget that many of the people who run our foreign policy are just power mad and evil….OLD CLIP CIRCULATING OF FORMER CIA DIRECTOR MIKE MORELL ADVOCATING TERRORISM — HE WAS ALSO A BIG ADVOCATE FOR DRONING CIVILIANS AND APPLYING TORTURE TECHNIQUES TO POWs pic.twitter.com/4Og94WkL5b
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) August 12, 2023It’s realhttps://t.co/Sgkup8OYAA
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) August 12, 2023
whiterock said:Progress in the war allows a city to reopen beaches and this is a bad thing?Redbrickbear said:BREAKING: Ukraine's Black Sea city of Odesa has reopened some of its beaches for the first time since Russia's invasion, please keep the people of Ukraine in your prayers. pic.twitter.com/HINhjALLct
— I Meme Therefore I Am 🇺🇸 (@ImMeme0) August 12, 2023
