Why Are We in Ukraine?

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FLBear5630
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Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Doc Holliday said:

FLBear5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:


I am not surprised, the over 50 crowd remember what living under Soviet Russia's thumb means. Younger generation have no idea what they are advocating for when they say let Russia have it...
If Ukraine is successful in stopping Russia then they're essentially no longer going to be Ukraine but a pawn for the west who will flood their country with immigrants.

Yea,

That of course is the important thing to remember.

This war is certainly not about freedom for Ukraine.

At the end of the war Kyiv will be under the influence of Moscow...or under the influence of Brussels (with DC really calling the shots)

Any Ukrainian that thinks they are fighting to determine their own future is sorely mistaken.
Well, go to Moldovia or Belarus and then go to Poland or Hungary. Then tell me which one would you prefer to live? Having Brussels or DC calling the shots allows you more freedom and prosperity than Putin and Russia...

More prosperity no doubt...that is true.

But as long as we admit that it comes with a new set of rulers. And certainly the EU is no free society when it comes to speech and being arrested for speaking your mind.

Not to mention as was already said on here....it comes with a neo-liberal mentality of open borders.

Ukraine might end up getting rid of the russians...only to be forced to accept millions of MENA or SSA migrants.
We are in agreement. The EU prosperity comes with rules and they are not shy in enforcing them.
...



If those "rules" involved the suppression of free speech or the suppression of religious belief….the EU is just a richer version of the old USSR


Freedom is what should be important.


Have you been to the EU? I attended church with no problems. Catholic masses were easy to find. I have been to Ireland, Austria, Germany, Hungary and Denmark. Never had an issue with either speech or religion.

I also saw protestors and nobody seemed scared to give their opinion! Saudi was much, much worse. Hell, I had a harder time in Toronto than anywhere else!
Redbrickbear
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FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Doc Holliday said:

FLBear5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:


I am not surprised, the over 50 crowd remember what living under Soviet Russia's thumb means. Younger generation have no idea what they are advocating for when they say let Russia have it...
If Ukraine is successful in stopping Russia then they're essentially no longer going to be Ukraine but a pawn for the west who will flood their country with immigrants.

Yea,

That of course is the important thing to remember.

This war is certainly not about freedom for Ukraine.

At the end of the war Kyiv will be under the influence of Moscow...or under the influence of Brussels (with DC really calling the shots)

Any Ukrainian that thinks they are fighting to determine their own future is sorely mistaken.
Well, go to Moldovia or Belarus and then go to Poland or Hungary. Then tell me which one would you prefer to live? Having Brussels or DC calling the shots allows you more freedom and prosperity than Putin and Russia...

More prosperity no doubt...that is true.

But as long as we admit that it comes with a new set of rulers. And certainly the EU is no free society when it comes to speech and being arrested for speaking your mind.

Not to mention as was already said on here....it comes with a neo-liberal mentality of open borders.

Ukraine might end up getting rid of the russians...only to be forced to accept millions of MENA or SSA migrants.
We are in agreement. The EU prosperity comes with rules and they are not shy in enforcing them.
...



If those "rules" involved the suppression of free speech or the suppression of religious belief….the EU is just a richer version of the old USSR


Freedom is what should be important.


Have you been to the EU? I attended church with no problems. Catholic masses were easy to find. I have been to Ireland, Austria, Germany, Hungary and Denmark. Never had an issue with either speech or religion.

I also saw protestors and nobody seemed scared to give their opinion! Saudi was much, much worse. Hell, I had a harder time in Toronto than anywhere else!



I have been to the UK (while it was in the EU), France, Italy, Austria, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, and the Netherlands


Most of the Churches were basically empty from what I saw but yes open.

Certainly having Churches does not mean there are not serious restrictions on what believing people can say and do in Europe these days when it comes to practicing their faith.







https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/25/the-real-threat-to-social-media-is-europe/

[The Real Threat to Social Media Is Europe

The EU is passing legislation that will weaken free speech laws beyond the breaking point.]
Redbrickbear
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FLBear5630
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Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Doc Holliday said:

FLBear5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:


I am not surprised, the over 50 crowd remember what living under Soviet Russia's thumb means. Younger generation have no idea what they are advocating for when they say let Russia have it...
If Ukraine is successful in stopping Russia then they're essentially no longer going to be Ukraine but a pawn for the west who will flood their country with immigrants.

Yea,

That of course is the important thing to remember.

This war is certainly not about freedom for Ukraine.

At the end of the war Kyiv will be under the influence of Moscow...or under the influence of Brussels (with DC really calling the shots)

Any Ukrainian that thinks they are fighting to determine their own future is sorely mistaken.
Well, go to Moldovia or Belarus and then go to Poland or Hungary. Then tell me which one would you prefer to live? Having Brussels or DC calling the shots allows you more freedom and prosperity than Putin and Russia...

More prosperity no doubt...that is true.

But as long as we admit that it comes with a new set of rulers. And certainly the EU is no free society when it comes to speech and being arrested for speaking your mind.

Not to mention as was already said on here....it comes with a neo-liberal mentality of open borders.

Ukraine might end up getting rid of the russians...only to be forced to accept millions of MENA or SSA migrants.
We are in agreement. The EU prosperity comes with rules and they are not shy in enforcing them.
...



If those "rules" involved the suppression of free speech or the suppression of religious belief….the EU is just a richer version of the old USSR


Freedom is what should be important.


Have you been to the EU? I attended church with no problems. Catholic masses were easy to find. I have been to Ireland, Austria, Germany, Hungary and Denmark. Never had an issue with either speech or religion.

I also saw protestors and nobody seemed scared to give their opinion! Saudi was much, much worse. Hell, I had a harder time in Toronto than anywhere else!



I have been to the UK (while it was in the EU), France, Italy, Austria, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, and the Netherlands


Most of the Churches were basically empty from what I saw but yes open.

Certainly having Churches does not mean there are not serious restrictions on what believing people can say and do in Europe these days when it comes to practicing their faith.







https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/25/the-real-threat-to-social-media-is-europe/

[The Real Threat to Social Media Is Europe

The EU is passing legislation that will weaken free speech laws beyond the breaking point.]
Well, since Britain is not in the EU I guess we should look at who is calling the shots in England... Although, I suspect there was more to it than this...
Redbrickbear
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FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Doc Holliday said:

FLBear5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:


I am not surprised, the over 50 crowd remember what living under Soviet Russia's thumb means. Younger generation have no idea what they are advocating for when they say let Russia have it...
If Ukraine is successful in stopping Russia then they're essentially no longer going to be Ukraine but a pawn for the west who will flood their country with immigrants.

Yea,

That of course is the important thing to remember.

This war is certainly not about freedom for Ukraine.

At the end of the war Kyiv will be under the influence of Moscow...or under the influence of Brussels (with DC really calling the shots)

Any Ukrainian that thinks they are fighting to determine their own future is sorely mistaken.
Well, go to Moldovia or Belarus and then go to Poland or Hungary. Then tell me which one would you prefer to live? Having Brussels or DC calling the shots allows you more freedom and prosperity than Putin and Russia...

More prosperity no doubt...that is true.

But as long as we admit that it comes with a new set of rulers. And certainly the EU is no free society when it comes to speech and being arrested for speaking your mind.

Not to mention as was already said on here....it comes with a neo-liberal mentality of open borders.

Ukraine might end up getting rid of the russians...only to be forced to accept millions of MENA or SSA migrants.
We are in agreement. The EU prosperity comes with rules and they are not shy in enforcing them.
...



If those "rules" involved the suppression of free speech or the suppression of religious belief….the EU is just a richer version of the old USSR


Freedom is what should be important.


Have you been to the EU? I attended church with no problems. Catholic masses were easy to find. I have been to Ireland, Austria, Germany, Hungary and Denmark. Never had an issue with either speech or religion.

I also saw protestors and nobody seemed scared to give their opinion! Saudi was much, much worse. Hell, I had a harder time in Toronto than anywhere else!



I have been to the UK (while it was in the EU), France, Italy, Austria, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, and the Netherlands


Most of the Churches were basically empty from what I saw but yes open.

Certainly having Churches does not mean there are not serious restrictions on what believing people can say and do in Europe these days when it comes to practicing their faith.







https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/25/the-real-threat-to-social-media-is-europe/

[The Real Threat to Social Media Is Europe

The EU is passing legislation that will weaken free speech laws beyond the breaking point.]
Well, since Britain is not in the EU I guess we should look at who is calling the shots in England... Although, I suspect there was more to it than this...


Interesting enough it was the Conservatives in the UK who wanted to get out of the EU specifically because of the violations on free speech inside the EU and so they could control their own borders.

The EU is not necessarily the land of freedom unless you are specifically comparing it to Communist China and Authoritarian Russia.

It has serious problems with freedom...both economic freedom and freedom of thought and expression.
trey3216
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FLBear5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:


I am not surprised, the over 50 crowd remember what living under Soviet Russia's thumb means. Younger generation have no idea what they are advocating for when they say let Russia have it...
Ukraine was also pretty adamant about NOT enlisting men from 25-35 who were married with children, so they would not further damage the demographic profile of the country.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
FLBear5630
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trey3216 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:


I am not surprised, the over 50 crowd remember what living under Soviet Russia's thumb means. Younger generation have no idea what they are advocating for when they say let Russia have it...
Ukraine was also pretty adamant about NOT enlisting men from 25-35 who were married with children, so they would not further damage the demographic profile of the country.
That make sense to me.
Redbrickbear
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ATL Bear said:

I think we need to change the name of the CIA to SPECTRE. We're at movie fantasy level of what some of you think the Agency is capable of.



They are certainly capable of bad dealing and unethical behavior


The_barBEARian
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trey3216 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:


I am not surprised, the over 50 crowd remember what living under Soviet Russia's thumb means. Younger generation have no idea what they are advocating for when they say let Russia have it...
Ukraine was also pretty adamant about NOT enlisting men from 25-35 who were married with children, so they would not further damage the demographic profile of the country.


Further proof this is the fakest war in human history.
Sam Lowry
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trey3216 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:


I am not surprised, the over 50 crowd remember what living under Soviet Russia's thumb means. Younger generation have no idea what they are advocating for when they say let Russia have it...
Ukraine was also pretty adamant about NOT enlisting men from 25-35 who were married with children, so they would not further damage the demographic profile of the country.
I assume you mean conscripting. They'll enlist anyone from age 18.
ATL Bear
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Redbrickbear said:

ATL Bear said:

I think we need to change the name of the CIA to SPECTRE. We're at movie fantasy level of what some of you think the Agency is capable of.



They are certainly capable of bad dealing and unethical behavior



The use of guys like Brennan to undermine Trump and political movements was an absolute travesty. Brennan went from being an intelligence officer to a political hack once he started taking cabinet roles. He deserves all the ire he gets. I blame him for being a primary culprit in creating the environment of visceral disdain many have for the CIA.
whiterock
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Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

[French politics seem to be bubbling with farmers revolts and cabinet shakeups. Marine Le Pen's populist National Rally party polls well. Sporadic riots emanating from the suburbs are a new norm. Yet low-violence turmoil is a kind of perennial in France, and the safer bet nearly always is that nothing dramatic will change on the domestic political front.

Intellectual currents may be more important. France is the first major European country (after Hungary, at least) to begin to acknowledge that the Ukraine war has turned into a major catastrophe for the West. President Macron still sings from the hymnal of Ukraine solidarity and the major voices of the center left and right still support unconditional aid to Ukraine. But cracks in the consensus are widening...

Now a Frenchman, the veteran and well-established social scientist Emmanuel Todd has, in an ambitious lamentation of American global leadership, taken the novel's "let's not demonize Putin" sentiment to another level. At this writing, his La Dfaite de L'Occident (The Defeat of the West) has been at or near the top of French best-seller lists for four weeks. Todd has had a large French readership since his first book, written in 1976 when he was a graduate student studying European peasant communities, predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union. Michael Lind, in his preface to the English version of After the Empire, a coruscating critique of America's imperial world role written as Washington was plunging into the Iraq War, places Todd in the tradition of the great Raymond Aron, as an enlightened liberal and empirically grounded skeptic. This is not quite precise: Todd is both more polemical and, if not dogmatically so, more left-wing than Aron. Yet he shares with him a healthy respect for social science data, deploying them here to undermine the West's most widely circulated and least challenged political narratives....

La Dfaite opens with a recitation of the surprises to emerge from the Ukraine war. The hawkishness of Great Britain, the failure of France and Germany to stand up for their own diplomatic and economic interests, the effectiveness and will to fight of the Ukrainian military are singled out. But several others are particularly important, and serve as major themes of Todd's book.

First, the Russian economy has successfully withstood the fierce American and Western financial sanctions...

Secondly, by last summer, it had become clear that the United States and the West lacked capacity to supply Ukraine with sufficient artillery shells...

Third, and perhaps most significantly, was the revelation of the West's ideological self-isolation as the Ukraine proxy war has ground on. From the outset large democratic countries such as Turkey and India failed to embrace Washington's sanctions regime...]


https://www.theamericanconservative.com/french-best-seller-u-s-is-a-nihilist-empire/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email


And then there is this excerpt highly detrimental to your insistence that we should simply let Russia have Ukraine:
"...the failure of France and Germany to stand up for their own diplomatic and economic interests, the effectiveness and will to fight of the Ukrainian military are singled out..." Even the guy you cited implicitly accedes to the notion that we have an interest in thwarting Russian ambitions in Ukraine.
I don't think that's what he means. It's that they're harming their own interests by going along with the sanctions and the war.
only a dumbass would argue that letting Russia subsume Ukraine is in the interest of a single European country.
If only someone had thought of that five or ten years ago.
Indeed. Obama could, and should, have done much, much more. His inaction guaranteed things would end up where they are now.
whiterock
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Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

[French politics seem to be bubbling with farmers revolts and cabinet shakeups. Marine Le Pen's populist National Rally party polls well. Sporadic riots emanating from the suburbs are a new norm. Yet low-violence turmoil is a kind of perennial in France, and the safer bet nearly always is that nothing dramatic will change on the domestic political front.

Intellectual currents may be more important. France is the first major European country (after Hungary, at least) to begin to acknowledge that the Ukraine war has turned into a major catastrophe for the West. President Macron still sings from the hymnal of Ukraine solidarity and the major voices of the center left and right still support unconditional aid to Ukraine. But cracks in the consensus are widening...

Now a Frenchman, the veteran and well-established social scientist Emmanuel Todd has, in an ambitious lamentation of American global leadership, taken the novel's "let's not demonize Putin" sentiment to another level. At this writing, his La Dfaite de L'Occident (The Defeat of the West) has been at or near the top of French best-seller lists for four weeks. Todd has had a large French readership since his first book, written in 1976 when he was a graduate student studying European peasant communities, predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union. Michael Lind, in his preface to the English version of After the Empire, a coruscating critique of America's imperial world role written as Washington was plunging into the Iraq War, places Todd in the tradition of the great Raymond Aron, as an enlightened liberal and empirically grounded skeptic. This is not quite precise: Todd is both more polemical and, if not dogmatically so, more left-wing than Aron. Yet he shares with him a healthy respect for social science data, deploying them here to undermine the West's most widely circulated and least challenged political narratives....

La Dfaite opens with a recitation of the surprises to emerge from the Ukraine war. The hawkishness of Great Britain, the failure of France and Germany to stand up for their own diplomatic and economic interests, the effectiveness and will to fight of the Ukrainian military are singled out. But several others are particularly important, and serve as major themes of Todd's book.

First, the Russian economy has successfully withstood the fierce American and Western financial sanctions...

Secondly, by last summer, it had become clear that the United States and the West lacked capacity to supply Ukraine with sufficient artillery shells...

Third, and perhaps most significantly, was the revelation of the West's ideological self-isolation as the Ukraine proxy war has ground on. From the outset large democratic countries such as Turkey and India failed to embrace Washington's sanctions regime...]


https://www.theamericanconservative.com/french-best-seller-u-s-is-a-nihilist-empire/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email


And then there is this excerpt highly detrimental to your insistence that we should simply let Russia have Ukraine:
"...the failure of France and Germany to stand up for their own diplomatic and economic interests, the effectiveness and will to fight of the Ukrainian military are singled out..." Even the guy you cited implicitly accedes to the notion that we have an interest in thwarting Russian ambitions in Ukraine.
I don't think that's what he means. It's that they're harming their own interests by going along with the sanctions and the war.
only a dumbass would argue that letting Russia subsume Ukraine is in the interest of a single European country.


Just back in the dark ages of 2013 Ukraine had a pro-Moscow President and it was not a problem for the USA or the EU.

A political coup (with violence), a 10 year bloody separatist war in Donbas, and now a full scale war between Ukraine and Russia and things are better for who?

When will we stop letting maniacs like Nuland control our foreign policy?
They are better for Russia, because we have done a piss-poor job of deterrence, who has escalated their territorial ambitions from nibbling to outright invasion.

The only thing more amusing than blaming the mechanic for for bad engine design is doubling and tripling down on the cause-effect error. I bet you shoot messengers, too.
whiterock
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Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

[French politics seem to be bubbling with farmers revolts and cabinet shakeups. Marine Le Pen's populist National Rally party polls well. Sporadic riots emanating from the suburbs are a new norm. Yet low-violence turmoil is a kind of perennial in France, and the safer bet nearly always is that nothing dramatic will change on the domestic political front.

Intellectual currents may be more important. France is the first major European country (after Hungary, at least) to begin to acknowledge that the Ukraine war has turned into a major catastrophe for the West. President Macron still sings from the hymnal of Ukraine solidarity and the major voices of the center left and right still support unconditional aid to Ukraine. But cracks in the consensus are widening...

Now a Frenchman, the veteran and well-established social scientist Emmanuel Todd has, in an ambitious lamentation of American global leadership, taken the novel's "let's not demonize Putin" sentiment to another level. At this writing, his La Dfaite de L'Occident (The Defeat of the West) has been at or near the top of French best-seller lists for four weeks. Todd has had a large French readership since his first book, written in 1976 when he was a graduate student studying European peasant communities, predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union. Michael Lind, in his preface to the English version of After the Empire, a coruscating critique of America's imperial world role written as Washington was plunging into the Iraq War, places Todd in the tradition of the great Raymond Aron, as an enlightened liberal and empirically grounded skeptic. This is not quite precise: Todd is both more polemical and, if not dogmatically so, more left-wing than Aron. Yet he shares with him a healthy respect for social science data, deploying them here to undermine the West's most widely circulated and least challenged political narratives....

La Dfaite opens with a recitation of the surprises to emerge from the Ukraine war. The hawkishness of Great Britain, the failure of France and Germany to stand up for their own diplomatic and economic interests, the effectiveness and will to fight of the Ukrainian military are singled out. But several others are particularly important, and serve as major themes of Todd's book.

First, the Russian economy has successfully withstood the fierce American and Western financial sanctions...

Secondly, by last summer, it had become clear that the United States and the West lacked capacity to supply Ukraine with sufficient artillery shells...

Third, and perhaps most significantly, was the revelation of the West's ideological self-isolation as the Ukraine proxy war has ground on. From the outset large democratic countries such as Turkey and India failed to embrace Washington's sanctions regime...]


https://www.theamericanconservative.com/french-best-seller-u-s-is-a-nihilist-empire/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email


And then there is this excerpt highly detrimental to your insistence that we should simply let Russia have Ukraine:
"...the failure of France and Germany to stand up for their own diplomatic and economic interests, the effectiveness and will to fight of the Ukrainian military are singled out..." Even the guy you cited implicitly accedes to the notion that we have an interest in thwarting Russian ambitions in Ukraine.
I don't think that's what he means. It's that they're harming their own interests by going along with the sanctions and the war.
only a dumbass would argue that letting Russia subsume Ukraine is in the interest of a single European country.



We could also just divide Ukraine up between a Western oriented "West Ukraine" and Russian oriented "East Ukraine"

It's been done in other places before…far better than endless war





Molotov-Ribbentrop's Poland solution 2.0

What could go wrong?
whiterock
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The_barBEARian said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

[The Tucker Interview

Here's my take in The European Conservative.

It didn't amount to much, did it? This is not Carlson's fault; Putin blustered and rambled. I believe he failed significantly by spending the first half hour giving a history lesson. It's not that history is unimportant here. In fact, it's hugely important, as Americans fail to understand. The error Putin made was not understanding his communication purpose here. That is, if his goal was to appeal to ordinary Americans and it was then he should have spoken more precisely.

Nevertheless, it was significant that this aired, because it is important to understand how our enemies see themselves. This is why I watched Russian propaganda in the early days of the war, until it was removed from European channels. Of course it was propaganda but so too is what the US government and its allies were putting out. That is, if we define "propaganda" as the selective marshaling of facts into a narrative meant to justify a government's action. That's what governments do!

The most valuable thing from the interview, it seems to me, is the way it revealed to American viewers how important history is to Putin's thinking. This is something I've generally observed since I moved to Europe. Americans are profoundly disconnected from history. Most peoples in the world do not share this relationship to the past. We Americans err, and err consequentially, by assuming that everybody else in the world holds their past lightly, if at all. Only Americans could have been convinced by government propaganda that Iraqis would welcome us as liberators, that the deep tribal and religious divisions in Iraqi society were not a real issue when it came to establishing liberal democracy there, and that anybody who said otherwise was a racist who didn't want Arabs to have nice things.

What did you think of the interview? To me, the most significant moment came when Putin said, addressing a hypothetical American, What are you doing over here, making war where you don't belong? Don't you have enough problems at home, with your open border, and your overwhelming debt?

One more thing: CNN is calling the interview a "propaganda victory" for Putin. Absurd. Every interview with a political leader, especially during wartime, is "propaganda". Do they really think their fawning coverage of Volodomyr Zelensky isn't propaganda? I don't fault Zelensky for this, nor do I fault to a point CNN. It is the journalist's responsibility to sit down and interview these figures. If they are any good, they will ask important questions. And, subsequent journalism will help readers and viewers sort out truth from fiction in what the leader said. There is this bizarre, willful naivete that has taken over American journalism, which says that views from the leaders of whom we approve, and whose causes we favor, is "real," but the views of our enemies and their spokesmen are "propaganda." This is how we surrender thinking to those who do not have our best interests at heart.] -Rod Dreher
Tucker's interview was the solid journalism. That's why alphabet "journalists" are attacking it.

Most damning part of that interview, if true, was Putin saying the CIA was supporting Islamists in Chechnya against the Russian state.


On one hand: You really need to understand better how things work. The CIA doesn't make up its own mind on such things. It does what POTUS (or Congress, if significant funding is required) tells it to do, acting within strict limits of Executive Order. So it wasn't the CIA supporting Chechen islamists against Russia. It was the USG.

On the other: I would have told Putin, mano y mano, to kill 'em all and let Allah sort 'em out, while wringing my hands publicly.
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

trey3216 said:

Redbrickbear said:

[The Tucker Interview

Here's my take in The European Conservative.

It didn't amount to much, did it? This is not Carlson's fault; Putin blustered and rambled. I believe he failed significantly by spending the first half hour giving a history lesson. It's not that history is unimportant here. In fact, it's hugely important, as Americans fail to understand. The error Putin made was not understanding his communication purpose here. That is, if his goal was to appeal to ordinary Americans and it was then he should have spoken more precisely.

Nevertheless, it was significant that this aired, because it is important to understand how our enemies see themselves. This is why I watched Russian propaganda in the early days of the war, until it was removed from European channels. Of course it was propaganda but so too is what the US government and its allies were putting out. That is, if we define "propaganda" as the selective marshaling of facts into a narrative meant to justify a government's action. That's what governments do!

The most valuable thing from the interview, it seems to me, is the way it revealed to American viewers how important history is to Putin's thinking. This is something I've generally observed since I moved to Europe. Americans are profoundly disconnected from history. Most peoples in the world do not share this relationship to the past. We Americans err, and err consequentially, by assuming that everybody else in the world holds their past lightly, if at all. Only Americans could have been convinced by government propaganda that Iraqis would welcome us as liberators, that the deep tribal and religious divisions in Iraqi society were not a real issue when it came to establishing liberal democracy there, and that anybody who said otherwise was a racist who didn't want Arabs to have nice things.

What did you think of the interview? To me, the most significant moment came when Putin said, addressing a hypothetical American, What are you doing over here, making war where you don't belong? Don't you have enough problems at home, with your open border, and your overwhelming debt?

One more thing: CNN is calling the interview a "propaganda victory" for Putin. Absurd. Every interview with a political leader, especially during wartime, is "propaganda". Do they really think their fawning coverage of Volodomyr Zelensky isn't propaganda? I don't fault Zelensky for this, nor do I fault to a point CNN. It is the journalist's responsibility to sit down and interview these figures. If they are any good, they will ask important questions. And, subsequent journalism will help readers and viewers sort out truth from fiction in what the leader said. There is this bizarre, willful naivete that has taken over American journalism, which says that views from the leaders of whom we approve, and whose causes we favor, is "real," but the views of our enemies and their spokesmen are "propaganda." This is how we surrender thinking to those who do not have our best interests at heart.] -Rod Dreher


A few thoughts on the Tucker-Putin interview:
Having watched the interview last night, I've been very interested in seeing the reaction here on this site. A lot of people have focused on 'Putin as an autistic history nerd' (good memes here), while others have stuck to variations on 'look how his history is a lie and bizarre and strange' or 'he whiffed the PR opportunity and didn't give MAGA anything.'
Ok. The former is funny, the middle is standard signaling and positioning, and the latter is US politics brain. Fine! But there's really tremendous data in here if we want to look seriously. Some points below.

First, the most important thing is indeed the half-hour history lesson. Not only did Putin start with this, and refuse to be interrupted, he even made a big show of gifting documents supporting his arguments to Tucker. What this tells us is that the history component to the Russo-Ukrainian War is not just a point of legitimation or a general casus belli, but the motivating factor for VVP personally. That's really big!
I've argued for a year now that we should understand the proximate cause of the war to be Vladimir Putin's deepening historical obsessions, his sense of personal grievance, and the unique isolation that allowed this to fester in the runup to 2022. You can find an article making that case here: ridl.io/putin-s-agency…. If you've taken my undergraduate course on Russian Politics, it's there as well. This interview is strong supporting data for that framing. Note how often Putin dismisses NATO expansion as the reason for action, as well as how much he does not care about Ukrainian democracy qua democracy. He doesn't even think it is a democracy (note the coup discussions).

Rather, he's clearly motivated - then and now - by historical concerns most of all. And this is important, which some observers may not quite get. He was not always like this! That is, the long rants about history that justify political action have become more and more common in the last ten years, and especially the last four or five. Which fits a model of growing obsession - which, incidentally, also aligns well with Putin's post-2012 sense that only he can stably rule Russia, and that he wants to bequeath a legacy. Tucker wasn't able to get an answer to the core question - why 2022 and not earlier - but this is good material for a obsession interpretation.

Second, another element that came out strongly was Putin's sense of personal insult and snubbing. He is butthurt by his world leader colleagues. We have dozens of minutes of him talking about the Bushes, about documents signed by the French and Germans, about negotiations generally - all of which end with Russia not getting what was promised or it expected. That could be read simply as justification for Russia's actions (i.e., the hypocrisy of the West) but what is mostly communicated, verbally and through body language, is that Putin himself feels slighted, and that he does not understand why others do not see the world, and the consequences of events, as clearly as he does. This is also quite interesting.
There is very little reason to believe this interview is anything less than the sincere views of Putin himself, as a smarter-than-average Russian boomer who is trying to explain why he's right, why he's been aggrieved, and why the other sides are just so stupid and shortsighted. He's booming really hard, it's very evident. He's not sharing everything, but he's telling you that he's not sharing everything with a knowing, paternalistic smile while he says it. And he really wants to get it through your thick skull what actually matters. Rurik, Yaroslav the Wise, 1654, Bohdan Khmelnitsky, the Soviet Union and the border changes, leaders just not being reasonable, etc etc.

Third, I don't think we can understand this interview as some sort of functionalist strategic communication exercise at all. VVP clearly did not care to talk about US political issues, he did not "throw red meat to MAGA" or whatever, he did not rise to the bait several times to get on a cleaner messaging narrative that would sell with an international audience of illiberal or West-skeptical types. At all! It was the above, which means this interview was about what Vladimir Putin himself thought rather than what he thought would sell best. That's incredibly unusual for an interview like this.
We didn't get anything about cancel culture, or gender ideology, or Biden being senile, or the US being this evil tentacled hegemon that threatens global peace. He was actually incredibly circumspect on that sort of thing. Much more so than in other venues in the recent past. This was Putin as pedagogue-in-chief, trying to educate Tucker not only about history, but also about how the world actually works. Look to the wandering discussion on the Orange Revolution, Yanukovych, the various negotiations, for that. The personal resentment comes out here in a distinct way, as disappointment and confusion as to why other international partners just don't get it the way VVP does.

Truly, the most framed or set-up part of this interview was the point about the spring 2022 negotiations (note his arg that instead of the Battle of Kyiv being lost, it was a part of a negotiation that got cut short by Johnson's intervention - an interesting assertion). And Tucker got him to talk about future potential negotiations as well. That was also enlightening, as it reiterated Putin's world-weary points that the other side doesn't get it and is stubborn, and that there is a 'reasonable' way out if only leaders would be clear-eyed.

This is important to keep in mind, especially as Putin seems quite confident the war is going well enough that he can just wait for negotiations to inevitably appear. Also note his regular recourse to proceduralism - negotiations are detailed, complicated, have many moving parts. The bureaucratic KGB and legal background always shines through with Putin at the end of the day.
Finally, as I've noted, this interview was pretty strange. Tucker tried to move things in a way that fit his own views (NATO expansion, the 'who runs the US' question, demonic forces on earth (?)), which was pretty cringe. But he actually did a decent job overall (sorry!). He asked about Gershkovich and pushed fairly hard all things considered, he got steamrolled by VVP but managed to barely hold on given the very meandering discussion (Putin's framing of 2004 and 2013-14 is genuinely difficult to understand if you don't already know the events quite well), he didn't crash the interview so bad that it ended early, he figured out he had a unique opportunity to let Putin talk, and in doing so he provided us a unique window into VVP.

It turns out that Putin says the same thing to Tucker as he does to Ru journos, with even more Putinsplaining. Which is illuminating! The history thing is the real deal, as is his belief that negotiations (in Russia's favor and in accordance with Putin's own sense of what is reasonable) are possible. Both of these things are really important for us to get at analytically.
I'm still thinking about this, but those are some topline takeaways as I process it this morning.





i.e. Putin is a history (especially Russian Power & Might History) obsessed authoritarian throwing a tantrum because he feels snubbed by the other global powers and he's going to take what he wants or die trying. Basically what several of us have been saying all along.
"What are you doing over here, making war where you don't belong? Don't you have enough problems at home, with your open border, and your overwhelming debt?"

That tells me he was counting on the US NOT being a player when he invaded. Wonder who was advising him the US wouldn't go in to significantly support Ukraine because of domestic issues and debt??? Someone gave him bad advice.
more likely he was playing to sentiments of American viewers, a great many of which tiink along the same lines. That's good statecraft. He wants American influence out of Europe. So appeal to the American people to make it so.

It's not like there isn't a substantial slice of the electorate who tend, for a number of reasons, to think the same way.
whiterock
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Redbrickbear said:

ATL Bear said:

I think we need to change the name of the CIA to SPECTRE. We're at movie fantasy level of what some of you think the Agency is capable of.





The CIA has come out and admitted it was involved in influencing some foreign elections during the Cold War.



If they have lost that ability then something strange is going on and the organization has gone soft…


[The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has been involved in Italian politics since the end of World War II. The CIA helped swing the 1948 general election in favor of the centrist Christian Democrats and would continue to intervene in Italian politics until at least the early 1960s.]

Don't you think that's wise?

Preventing a peaceful communist takeover of Italy during the Cold War was kinda important, ergo worth some risk to prevent. Quite a bit different scenario than managing a relationship with a stable ally, where the risk/reward equation is inverted. In almost any conceivable scenario, the risk of getting caught meddling is far worse than the outcome of the election itself.
whiterock
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ATL Bear said:

I think we need to change the name of the CIA to SPECTRE. We're at movie fantasy level of what some of you think the Agency is capable of.


I'd give anything to see the looks of disappointment on their faces if they could ever walk into Langley and start reading files.
boognish_bear
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Redbrickbear
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whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

[French politics seem to be bubbling with farmers revolts and cabinet shakeups. Marine Le Pen's populist National Rally party polls well. Sporadic riots emanating from the suburbs are a new norm. Yet low-violence turmoil is a kind of perennial in France, and the safer bet nearly always is that nothing dramatic will change on the domestic political front.

Intellectual currents may be more important. France is the first major European country (after Hungary, at least) to begin to acknowledge that the Ukraine war has turned into a major catastrophe for the West. President Macron still sings from the hymnal of Ukraine solidarity and the major voices of the center left and right still support unconditional aid to Ukraine. But cracks in the consensus are widening...

Now a Frenchman, the veteran and well-established social scientist Emmanuel Todd has, in an ambitious lamentation of American global leadership, taken the novel's "let's not demonize Putin" sentiment to another level. At this writing, his La Dfaite de L'Occident (The Defeat of the West) has been at or near the top of French best-seller lists for four weeks. Todd has had a large French readership since his first book, written in 1976 when he was a graduate student studying European peasant communities, predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union. Michael Lind, in his preface to the English version of After the Empire, a coruscating critique of America's imperial world role written as Washington was plunging into the Iraq War, places Todd in the tradition of the great Raymond Aron, as an enlightened liberal and empirically grounded skeptic. This is not quite precise: Todd is both more polemical and, if not dogmatically so, more left-wing than Aron. Yet he shares with him a healthy respect for social science data, deploying them here to undermine the West's most widely circulated and least challenged political narratives....

La Dfaite opens with a recitation of the surprises to emerge from the Ukraine war. The hawkishness of Great Britain, the failure of France and Germany to stand up for their own diplomatic and economic interests, the effectiveness and will to fight of the Ukrainian military are singled out. But several others are particularly important, and serve as major themes of Todd's book.

First, the Russian economy has successfully withstood the fierce American and Western financial sanctions...

Secondly, by last summer, it had become clear that the United States and the West lacked capacity to supply Ukraine with sufficient artillery shells...

Third, and perhaps most significantly, was the revelation of the West's ideological self-isolation as the Ukraine proxy war has ground on. From the outset large democratic countries such as Turkey and India failed to embrace Washington's sanctions regime...]


https://www.theamericanconservative.com/french-best-seller-u-s-is-a-nihilist-empire/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email


And then there is this excerpt highly detrimental to your insistence that we should simply let Russia have Ukraine:
"...the failure of France and Germany to stand up for their own diplomatic and economic interests, the effectiveness and will to fight of the Ukrainian military are singled out..." Even the guy you cited implicitly accedes to the notion that we have an interest in thwarting Russian ambitions in Ukraine.
I don't think that's what he means. It's that they're harming their own interests by going along with the sanctions and the war.
only a dumbass would argue that letting Russia subsume Ukraine is in the interest of a single European country.



We could also just divide Ukraine up between a Western oriented "West Ukraine" and Russian oriented "East Ukraine"

It's been done in other places before…far better than endless war





Molotov-Ribbentrop's Poland solution 2.0

What could go wrong?



Are you insinuating that the West is the new Nazis in this hypothetical?

And Russia the new Soviets?
Sam Lowry
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trey3216 said:

Redbrickbear said:

[The Tucker Interview

Here's my take in The European Conservative.

It didn't amount to much, did it? This is not Carlson's fault; Putin blustered and rambled. I believe he failed significantly by spending the first half hour giving a history lesson. It's not that history is unimportant here. In fact, it's hugely important, as Americans fail to understand. The error Putin made was not understanding his communication purpose here. That is, if his goal was to appeal to ordinary Americans and it was then he should have spoken more precisely.

Nevertheless, it was significant that this aired, because it is important to understand how our enemies see themselves. This is why I watched Russian propaganda in the early days of the war, until it was removed from European channels. Of course it was propaganda but so too is what the US government and its allies were putting out. That is, if we define "propaganda" as the selective marshaling of facts into a narrative meant to justify a government's action. That's what governments do!

The most valuable thing from the interview, it seems to me, is the way it revealed to American viewers how important history is to Putin's thinking. This is something I've generally observed since I moved to Europe. Americans are profoundly disconnected from history. Most peoples in the world do not share this relationship to the past. We Americans err, and err consequentially, by assuming that everybody else in the world holds their past lightly, if at all. Only Americans could have been convinced by government propaganda that Iraqis would welcome us as liberators, that the deep tribal and religious divisions in Iraqi society were not a real issue when it came to establishing liberal democracy there, and that anybody who said otherwise was a racist who didn't want Arabs to have nice things.

What did you think of the interview? To me, the most significant moment came when Putin said, addressing a hypothetical American, What are you doing over here, making war where you don't belong? Don't you have enough problems at home, with your open border, and your overwhelming debt?

One more thing: CNN is calling the interview a "propaganda victory" for Putin. Absurd. Every interview with a political leader, especially during wartime, is "propaganda". Do they really think their fawning coverage of Volodomyr Zelensky isn't propaganda? I don't fault Zelensky for this, nor do I fault to a point CNN. It is the journalist's responsibility to sit down and interview these figures. If they are any good, they will ask important questions. And, subsequent journalism will help readers and viewers sort out truth from fiction in what the leader said. There is this bizarre, willful naivete that has taken over American journalism, which says that views from the leaders of whom we approve, and whose causes we favor, is "real," but the views of our enemies and their spokesmen are "propaganda." This is how we surrender thinking to those who do not have our best interests at heart.] -Rod Dreher


A few thoughts on the Tucker-Putin interview:
Having watched the interview last night, I've been very interested in seeing the reaction here on this site. A lot of people have focused on 'Putin as an autistic history nerd' (good memes here), while others have stuck to variations on 'look how his history is a lie and bizarre and strange' or 'he whiffed the PR opportunity and didn't give MAGA anything.'
Ok. The former is funny, the middle is standard signaling and positioning, and the latter is US politics brain. Fine! But there's really tremendous data in here if we want to look seriously. Some points below.

First, the most important thing is indeed the half-hour history lesson. Not only did Putin start with this, and refuse to be interrupted, he even made a big show of gifting documents supporting his arguments to Tucker. What this tells us is that the history component to the Russo-Ukrainian War is not just a point of legitimation or a general casus belli, but the motivating factor for VVP personally. That's really big!
I've argued for a year now that we should understand the proximate cause of the war to be Vladimir Putin's deepening historical obsessions, his sense of personal grievance, and the unique isolation that allowed this to fester in the runup to 2022. You can find an article making that case here: ridl.io/putin-s-agency…. If you've taken my undergraduate course on Russian Politics, it's there as well. This interview is strong supporting data for that framing. Note how often Putin dismisses NATO expansion as the reason for action, as well as how much he does not care about Ukrainian democracy qua democracy. He doesn't even think it is a democracy (note the coup discussions).

Rather, he's clearly motivated - then and now - by historical concerns most of all. And this is important, which some observers may not quite get. He was not always like this! That is, the long rants about history that justify political action have become more and more common in the last ten years, and especially the last four or five. Which fits a model of growing obsession - which, incidentally, also aligns well with Putin's post-2012 sense that only he can stably rule Russia, and that he wants to bequeath a legacy. Tucker wasn't able to get an answer to the core question - why 2022 and not earlier - but this is good material for a obsession interpretation.

Second, another element that came out strongly was Putin's sense of personal insult and snubbing. He is butthurt by his world leader colleagues. We have dozens of minutes of him talking about the Bushes, about documents signed by the French and Germans, about negotiations generally - all of which end with Russia not getting what was promised or it expected. That could be read simply as justification for Russia's actions (i.e., the hypocrisy of the West) but what is mostly communicated, verbally and through body language, is that Putin himself feels slighted, and that he does not understand why others do not see the world, and the consequences of events, as clearly as he does. This is also quite interesting.
There is very little reason to believe this interview is anything less than the sincere views of Putin himself, as a smarter-than-average Russian boomer who is trying to explain why he's right, why he's been aggrieved, and why the other sides are just so stupid and shortsighted. He's booming really hard, it's very evident. He's not sharing everything, but he's telling you that he's not sharing everything with a knowing, paternalistic smile while he says it. And he really wants to get it through your thick skull what actually matters. Rurik, Yaroslav the Wise, 1654, Bohdan Khmelnitsky, the Soviet Union and the border changes, leaders just not being reasonable, etc etc.

Third, I don't think we can understand this interview as some sort of functionalist strategic communication exercise at all. VVP clearly did not care to talk about US political issues, he did not "throw red meat to MAGA" or whatever, he did not rise to the bait several times to get on a cleaner messaging narrative that would sell with an international audience of illiberal or West-skeptical types. At all! It was the above, which means this interview was about what Vladimir Putin himself thought rather than what he thought would sell best. That's incredibly unusual for an interview like this.
We didn't get anything about cancel culture, or gender ideology, or Biden being senile, or the US being this evil tentacled hegemon that threatens global peace. He was actually incredibly circumspect on that sort of thing. Much more so than in other venues in the recent past. This was Putin as pedagogue-in-chief, trying to educate Tucker not only about history, but also about how the world actually works. Look to the wandering discussion on the Orange Revolution, Yanukovych, the various negotiations, for that. The personal resentment comes out here in a distinct way, as disappointment and confusion as to why other international partners just don't get it the way VVP does.

Truly, the most framed or set-up part of this interview was the point about the spring 2022 negotiations (note his arg that instead of the Battle of Kyiv being lost, it was a part of a negotiation that got cut short by Johnson's intervention - an interesting assertion). And Tucker got him to talk about future potential negotiations as well. That was also enlightening, as it reiterated Putin's world-weary points that the other side doesn't get it and is stubborn, and that there is a 'reasonable' way out if only leaders would be clear-eyed.

This is important to keep in mind, especially as Putin seems quite confident the war is going well enough that he can just wait for negotiations to inevitably appear. Also note his regular recourse to proceduralism - negotiations are detailed, complicated, have many moving parts. The bureaucratic KGB and legal background always shines through with Putin at the end of the day.
Finally, as I've noted, this interview was pretty strange. Tucker tried to move things in a way that fit his own views (NATO expansion, the 'who runs the US' question, demonic forces on earth (?)), which was pretty cringe. But he actually did a decent job overall (sorry!). He asked about Gershkovich and pushed fairly hard all things considered, he got steamrolled by VVP but managed to barely hold on given the very meandering discussion (Putin's framing of 2004 and 2013-14 is genuinely difficult to understand if you don't already know the events quite well), he didn't crash the interview so bad that it ended early, he figured out he had a unique opportunity to let Putin talk, and in doing so he provided us a unique window into VVP.

It turns out that Putin says the same thing to Tucker as he does to Ru journos, with even more Putinsplaining. Which is illuminating! The history thing is the real deal, as is his belief that negotiations (in Russia's favor and in accordance with Putin's own sense of what is reasonable) are possible. Both of these things are really important for us to get at analytically.
I'm still thinking about this, but those are some topline takeaways as I process it this morning.





i.e. Putin is a history (especially Russian Power & Might History) obsessed authoritarian throwing a tantrum because he feels snubbed by the other global powers and he's going to take what he wants or die trying. Basically what several of us have been saying all along.
This guy actually teaches a course on Russian Politics? Man, that is scary.
Bear8084
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Sam Lowry said:

trey3216 said:

Redbrickbear said:

[The Tucker Interview

Here's my take in The European Conservative.

It didn't amount to much, did it? This is not Carlson's fault; Putin blustered and rambled. I believe he failed significantly by spending the first half hour giving a history lesson. It's not that history is unimportant here. In fact, it's hugely important, as Americans fail to understand. The error Putin made was not understanding his communication purpose here. That is, if his goal was to appeal to ordinary Americans and it was then he should have spoken more precisely.

Nevertheless, it was significant that this aired, because it is important to understand how our enemies see themselves. This is why I watched Russian propaganda in the early days of the war, until it was removed from European channels. Of course it was propaganda but so too is what the US government and its allies were putting out. That is, if we define "propaganda" as the selective marshaling of facts into a narrative meant to justify a government's action. That's what governments do!

The most valuable thing from the interview, it seems to me, is the way it revealed to American viewers how important history is to Putin's thinking. This is something I've generally observed since I moved to Europe. Americans are profoundly disconnected from history. Most peoples in the world do not share this relationship to the past. We Americans err, and err consequentially, by assuming that everybody else in the world holds their past lightly, if at all. Only Americans could have been convinced by government propaganda that Iraqis would welcome us as liberators, that the deep tribal and religious divisions in Iraqi society were not a real issue when it came to establishing liberal democracy there, and that anybody who said otherwise was a racist who didn't want Arabs to have nice things.

What did you think of the interview? To me, the most significant moment came when Putin said, addressing a hypothetical American, What are you doing over here, making war where you don't belong? Don't you have enough problems at home, with your open border, and your overwhelming debt?

One more thing: CNN is calling the interview a "propaganda victory" for Putin. Absurd. Every interview with a political leader, especially during wartime, is "propaganda". Do they really think their fawning coverage of Volodomyr Zelensky isn't propaganda? I don't fault Zelensky for this, nor do I fault to a point CNN. It is the journalist's responsibility to sit down and interview these figures. If they are any good, they will ask important questions. And, subsequent journalism will help readers and viewers sort out truth from fiction in what the leader said. There is this bizarre, willful naivete that has taken over American journalism, which says that views from the leaders of whom we approve, and whose causes we favor, is "real," but the views of our enemies and their spokesmen are "propaganda." This is how we surrender thinking to those who do not have our best interests at heart.] -Rod Dreher


A few thoughts on the Tucker-Putin interview:
Having watched the interview last night, I've been very interested in seeing the reaction here on this site. A lot of people have focused on 'Putin as an autistic history nerd' (good memes here), while others have stuck to variations on 'look how his history is a lie and bizarre and strange' or 'he whiffed the PR opportunity and didn't give MAGA anything.'
Ok. The former is funny, the middle is standard signaling and positioning, and the latter is US politics brain. Fine! But there's really tremendous data in here if we want to look seriously. Some points below.

First, the most important thing is indeed the half-hour history lesson. Not only did Putin start with this, and refuse to be interrupted, he even made a big show of gifting documents supporting his arguments to Tucker. What this tells us is that the history component to the Russo-Ukrainian War is not just a point of legitimation or a general casus belli, but the motivating factor for VVP personally. That's really big!
I've argued for a year now that we should understand the proximate cause of the war to be Vladimir Putin's deepening historical obsessions, his sense of personal grievance, and the unique isolation that allowed this to fester in the runup to 2022. You can find an article making that case here: ridl.io/putin-s-agency…. If you've taken my undergraduate course on Russian Politics, it's there as well. This interview is strong supporting data for that framing. Note how often Putin dismisses NATO expansion as the reason for action, as well as how much he does not care about Ukrainian democracy qua democracy. He doesn't even think it is a democracy (note the coup discussions).

Rather, he's clearly motivated - then and now - by historical concerns most of all. And this is important, which some observers may not quite get. He was not always like this! That is, the long rants about history that justify political action have become more and more common in the last ten years, and especially the last four or five. Which fits a model of growing obsession - which, incidentally, also aligns well with Putin's post-2012 sense that only he can stably rule Russia, and that he wants to bequeath a legacy. Tucker wasn't able to get an answer to the core question - why 2022 and not earlier - but this is good material for a obsession interpretation.

Second, another element that came out strongly was Putin's sense of personal insult and snubbing. He is butthurt by his world leader colleagues. We have dozens of minutes of him talking about the Bushes, about documents signed by the French and Germans, about negotiations generally - all of which end with Russia not getting what was promised or it expected. That could be read simply as justification for Russia's actions (i.e., the hypocrisy of the West) but what is mostly communicated, verbally and through body language, is that Putin himself feels slighted, and that he does not understand why others do not see the world, and the consequences of events, as clearly as he does. This is also quite interesting.
There is very little reason to believe this interview is anything less than the sincere views of Putin himself, as a smarter-than-average Russian boomer who is trying to explain why he's right, why he's been aggrieved, and why the other sides are just so stupid and shortsighted. He's booming really hard, it's very evident. He's not sharing everything, but he's telling you that he's not sharing everything with a knowing, paternalistic smile while he says it. And he really wants to get it through your thick skull what actually matters. Rurik, Yaroslav the Wise, 1654, Bohdan Khmelnitsky, the Soviet Union and the border changes, leaders just not being reasonable, etc etc.

Third, I don't think we can understand this interview as some sort of functionalist strategic communication exercise at all. VVP clearly did not care to talk about US political issues, he did not "throw red meat to MAGA" or whatever, he did not rise to the bait several times to get on a cleaner messaging narrative that would sell with an international audience of illiberal or West-skeptical types. At all! It was the above, which means this interview was about what Vladimir Putin himself thought rather than what he thought would sell best. That's incredibly unusual for an interview like this.
We didn't get anything about cancel culture, or gender ideology, or Biden being senile, or the US being this evil tentacled hegemon that threatens global peace. He was actually incredibly circumspect on that sort of thing. Much more so than in other venues in the recent past. This was Putin as pedagogue-in-chief, trying to educate Tucker not only about history, but also about how the world actually works. Look to the wandering discussion on the Orange Revolution, Yanukovych, the various negotiations, for that. The personal resentment comes out here in a distinct way, as disappointment and confusion as to why other international partners just don't get it the way VVP does.

Truly, the most framed or set-up part of this interview was the point about the spring 2022 negotiations (note his arg that instead of the Battle of Kyiv being lost, it was a part of a negotiation that got cut short by Johnson's intervention - an interesting assertion). And Tucker got him to talk about future potential negotiations as well. That was also enlightening, as it reiterated Putin's world-weary points that the other side doesn't get it and is stubborn, and that there is a 'reasonable' way out if only leaders would be clear-eyed.

This is important to keep in mind, especially as Putin seems quite confident the war is going well enough that he can just wait for negotiations to inevitably appear. Also note his regular recourse to proceduralism - negotiations are detailed, complicated, have many moving parts. The bureaucratic KGB and legal background always shines through with Putin at the end of the day.
Finally, as I've noted, this interview was pretty strange. Tucker tried to move things in a way that fit his own views (NATO expansion, the 'who runs the US' question, demonic forces on earth (?)), which was pretty cringe. But he actually did a decent job overall (sorry!). He asked about Gershkovich and pushed fairly hard all things considered, he got steamrolled by VVP but managed to barely hold on given the very meandering discussion (Putin's framing of 2004 and 2013-14 is genuinely difficult to understand if you don't already know the events quite well), he didn't crash the interview so bad that it ended early, he figured out he had a unique opportunity to let Putin talk, and in doing so he provided us a unique window into VVP.

It turns out that Putin says the same thing to Tucker as he does to Ru journos, with even more Putinsplaining. Which is illuminating! The history thing is the real deal, as is his belief that negotiations (in Russia's favor and in accordance with Putin's own sense of what is reasonable) are possible. Both of these things are really important for us to get at analytically.
I'm still thinking about this, but those are some topline takeaways as I process it this morning.





i.e. Putin is a history (especially Russian Power & Might History) obsessed authoritarian throwing a tantrum because he feels snubbed by the other global powers and he's going to take what he wants or die trying. Basically what several of us have been saying all along.
This guy actually teaches a course on Russian Politics? Man, that is scary.


I know, I know, the truth is pretty scary to vatnik shills like you.
Redbrickbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

The_barBEARian said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

[The Tucker Interview

Here's my take in The European Conservative.

It didn't amount to much, did it? This is not Carlson's fault; Putin blustered and rambled. I believe he failed significantly by spending the first half hour giving a history lesson. It's not that history is unimportant here. In fact, it's hugely important, as Americans fail to understand. The error Putin made was not understanding his communication purpose here. That is, if his goal was to appeal to ordinary Americans and it was then he should have spoken more precisely.

Nevertheless, it was significant that this aired, because it is important to understand how our enemies see themselves. This is why I watched Russian propaganda in the early days of the war, until it was removed from European channels. Of course it was propaganda but so too is what the US government and its allies were putting out. That is, if we define "propaganda" as the selective marshaling of facts into a narrative meant to justify a government's action. That's what governments do!

The most valuable thing from the interview, it seems to me, is the way it revealed to American viewers how important history is to Putin's thinking. This is something I've generally observed since I moved to Europe. Americans are profoundly disconnected from history. Most peoples in the world do not share this relationship to the past. We Americans err, and err consequentially, by assuming that everybody else in the world holds their past lightly, if at all. Only Americans could have been convinced by government propaganda that Iraqis would welcome us as liberators, that the deep tribal and religious divisions in Iraqi society were not a real issue when it came to establishing liberal democracy there, and that anybody who said otherwise was a racist who didn't want Arabs to have nice things.

What did you think of the interview? To me, the most significant moment came when Putin said, addressing a hypothetical American, What are you doing over here, making war where you don't belong? Don't you have enough problems at home, with your open border, and your overwhelming debt?

One more thing: CNN is calling the interview a "propaganda victory" for Putin. Absurd. Every interview with a political leader, especially during wartime, is "propaganda". Do they really think their fawning coverage of Volodomyr Zelensky isn't propaganda? I don't fault Zelensky for this, nor do I fault to a point CNN. It is the journalist's responsibility to sit down and interview these figures. If they are any good, they will ask important questions. And, subsequent journalism will help readers and viewers sort out truth from fiction in what the leader said. There is this bizarre, willful naivete that has taken over American journalism, which says that views from the leaders of whom we approve, and whose causes we favor, is "real," but the views of our enemies and their spokesmen are "propaganda." This is how we surrender thinking to those who do not have our best interests at heart.] -Rod Dreher
Tucker's interview was the solid journalism. That's why alphabet "journalists" are attacking it.

Most damning part of that interview, if true, was Putin saying the CIA was supporting Islamists in Chechnya against the Russian state.


On one hand: You really need to understand better how things work. The CIA doesn't make up its own mind on such things. It does what POTUS (or Congress, if significant funding is required) tells it to do, acting within strict limits of Executive Order…



Then who told the CIA to spy on Trump?




Redbrickbear
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whiterock said:

The_barBEARian said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

[The Tucker Interview

Here's my take in The European Conservative.

It didn't amount to much, did it? This is not Carlson's fault; Putin blustered and rambled. I believe he failed significantly by spending the first half hour giving a history lesson. It's not that history is unimportant here. In fact, it's hugely important, as Americans fail to understand. The error Putin made was not understanding his communication purpose here. That is, if his goal was to appeal to ordinary Americans and it was then he should have spoken more precisely.

Nevertheless, it was significant that this aired, because it is important to understand how our enemies see themselves. This is why I watched Russian propaganda in the early days of the war, until it was removed from European channels. Of course it was propaganda but so too is what the US government and its allies were putting out. That is, if we define "propaganda" as the selective marshaling of facts into a narrative meant to justify a government's action. That's what governments do!

The most valuable thing from the interview, it seems to me, is the way it revealed to American viewers how important history is to Putin's thinking. This is something I've generally observed since I moved to Europe. Americans are profoundly disconnected from history. Most peoples in the world do not share this relationship to the past. We Americans err, and err consequentially, by assuming that everybody else in the world holds their past lightly, if at all. Only Americans could have been convinced by government propaganda that Iraqis would welcome us as liberators, that the deep tribal and religious divisions in Iraqi society were not a real issue when it came to establishing liberal democracy there, and that anybody who said otherwise was a racist who didn't want Arabs to have nice things.

What did you think of the interview? To me, the most significant moment came when Putin said, addressing a hypothetical American, What are you doing over here, making war where you don't belong? Don't you have enough problems at home, with your open border, and your overwhelming debt?

One more thing: CNN is calling the interview a "propaganda victory" for Putin. Absurd. Every interview with a political leader, especially during wartime, is "propaganda". Do they really think their fawning coverage of Volodomyr Zelensky isn't propaganda? I don't fault Zelensky for this, nor do I fault to a point CNN. It is the journalist's responsibility to sit down and interview these figures. If they are any good, they will ask important questions. And, subsequent journalism will help readers and viewers sort out truth from fiction in what the leader said. There is this bizarre, willful naivete that has taken over American journalism, which says that views from the leaders of whom we approve, and whose causes we favor, is "real," but the views of our enemies and their spokesmen are "propaganda." This is how we surrender thinking to those who do not have our best interests at heart.] -Rod Dreher
Tucker's interview was the solid journalism. That's why alphabet "journalists" are attacking it.

Most damning part of that interview, if true, was Putin saying the CIA was supporting Islamists in Chechnya against the Russian state.


You really need to understand better how things work. The CIA doesn't make up its own mind on such things. It does what POTUS (or Congress, if significant funding is required) tells it to do, acting within strict limits of Executive Order.

Are we even sure that is the case?

Eisenhower warned us about the MIC

I doubt the situation has gotten better over the past decades since that great man's administration.

"In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eisenhower%27s_farewell_address#:~:text=In%20the%20councils%20of%20government,power%20exists%20and%20will%20persist.

President Kennedy as well was very concerned about the CIA and how it operated.

Specifically he was concerned that the CIA was telling him one thing...then doing another thing behind his back without approval.

[former president Lyndon Johnson told a reporter that he didn't believe the Warren Commission's finding that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone in killing President John Kennedy. Johnson felt that Cuban president Fidel Castro was actually behind it. After all, Johnson continued, the CIA was running "a damned Murder, Inc. in the Caribbean," giving Castro reason to retaliate. A later Senate investigation reported on the CIA's assassination operations but was skimpy with details. However, since then the secret files on the CIA's Cuban operations have been made public, allowing this more complete and troubling story about the operations and their...]




Doc Holliday
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whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

ATL Bear said:

I think we need to change the name of the CIA to SPECTRE. We're at movie fantasy level of what some of you think the Agency is capable of.





The CIA has come out and admitted it was involved in influencing some foreign elections during the Cold War.



If they have lost that ability then something strange is going on and the organization has gone soft…


[The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has been involved in Italian politics since the end of World War II. The CIA helped swing the 1948 general election in favor of the centrist Christian Democrats and would continue to intervene in Italian politics until at least the early 1960s.]

Don't you think that's wise?

Preventing a peaceful communist takeover of Italy during the Cold War was kinda important, ergo worth some risk to prevent. Quite a bit different scenario than managing a relationship with a stable ally, where the risk/reward equation is inverted. In almost any conceivable scenario, the risk of getting caught meddling is far worse than the outcome of the election itself.
When Ukraine's population of militants, militias, battalions, tough as nails bros and civilians that would pose a threat to the incoming corporate regime are all dead and we federalize/westernize Ukraine...is the goal then to destabilize and topple Russia?
Doc Holliday
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Open your eyes people.



Funding for Ukraine didn't pass and now there's a national security threat. I guarantee you its about Russia based on bogus intel and will prompt hundreds of billions of aid to Ukraine.

Perfectly timed for more funding. You people are getting played.
whiterock
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Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

[French politics seem to be bubbling with farmers revolts and cabinet shakeups. Marine Le Pen's populist National Rally party polls well. Sporadic riots emanating from the suburbs are a new norm. Yet low-violence turmoil is a kind of perennial in France, and the safer bet nearly always is that nothing dramatic will change on the domestic political front.

Intellectual currents may be more important. France is the first major European country (after Hungary, at least) to begin to acknowledge that the Ukraine war has turned into a major catastrophe for the West. President Macron still sings from the hymnal of Ukraine solidarity and the major voices of the center left and right still support unconditional aid to Ukraine. But cracks in the consensus are widening...

Now a Frenchman, the veteran and well-established social scientist Emmanuel Todd has, in an ambitious lamentation of American global leadership, taken the novel's "let's not demonize Putin" sentiment to another level. At this writing, his La Dfaite de L'Occident (The Defeat of the West) has been at or near the top of French best-seller lists for four weeks. Todd has had a large French readership since his first book, written in 1976 when he was a graduate student studying European peasant communities, predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union. Michael Lind, in his preface to the English version of After the Empire, a coruscating critique of America's imperial world role written as Washington was plunging into the Iraq War, places Todd in the tradition of the great Raymond Aron, as an enlightened liberal and empirically grounded skeptic. This is not quite precise: Todd is both more polemical and, if not dogmatically so, more left-wing than Aron. Yet he shares with him a healthy respect for social science data, deploying them here to undermine the West's most widely circulated and least challenged political narratives....

La Dfaite opens with a recitation of the surprises to emerge from the Ukraine war. The hawkishness of Great Britain, the failure of France and Germany to stand up for their own diplomatic and economic interests, the effectiveness and will to fight of the Ukrainian military are singled out. But several others are particularly important, and serve as major themes of Todd's book.

First, the Russian economy has successfully withstood the fierce American and Western financial sanctions...

Secondly, by last summer, it had become clear that the United States and the West lacked capacity to supply Ukraine with sufficient artillery shells...

Third, and perhaps most significantly, was the revelation of the West's ideological self-isolation as the Ukraine proxy war has ground on. From the outset large democratic countries such as Turkey and India failed to embrace Washington's sanctions regime...]


https://www.theamericanconservative.com/french-best-seller-u-s-is-a-nihilist-empire/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email


And then there is this excerpt highly detrimental to your insistence that we should simply let Russia have Ukraine:
"...the failure of France and Germany to stand up for their own diplomatic and economic interests, the effectiveness and will to fight of the Ukrainian military are singled out..." Even the guy you cited implicitly accedes to the notion that we have an interest in thwarting Russian ambitions in Ukraine.
I don't think that's what he means. It's that they're harming their own interests by going along with the sanctions and the war.
only a dumbass would argue that letting Russia subsume Ukraine is in the interest of a single European country.



We could also just divide Ukraine up between a Western oriented "West Ukraine" and Russian oriented "East Ukraine"

It's been done in other places before…far better than endless war





Molotov-Ribbentrop's Poland solution 2.0

What could go wrong?



Are you insinuating that the West is the new Nazis in this hypothetical?

And Russia the new Soviets?

You made the suggestion. I just pointed out the bad optics of it….
whiterock
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Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

The_barBEARian said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

[The Tucker Interview

Here's my take in The European Conservative.

It didn't amount to much, did it? This is not Carlson's fault; Putin blustered and rambled. I believe he failed significantly by spending the first half hour giving a history lesson. It's not that history is unimportant here. In fact, it's hugely important, as Americans fail to understand. The error Putin made was not understanding his communication purpose here. That is, if his goal was to appeal to ordinary Americans and it was then he should have spoken more precisely.

Nevertheless, it was significant that this aired, because it is important to understand how our enemies see themselves. This is why I watched Russian propaganda in the early days of the war, until it was removed from European channels. Of course it was propaganda but so too is what the US government and its allies were putting out. That is, if we define "propaganda" as the selective marshaling of facts into a narrative meant to justify a government's action. That's what governments do!

The most valuable thing from the interview, it seems to me, is the way it revealed to American viewers how important history is to Putin's thinking. This is something I've generally observed since I moved to Europe. Americans are profoundly disconnected from history. Most peoples in the world do not share this relationship to the past. We Americans err, and err consequentially, by assuming that everybody else in the world holds their past lightly, if at all. Only Americans could have been convinced by government propaganda that Iraqis would welcome us as liberators, that the deep tribal and religious divisions in Iraqi society were not a real issue when it came to establishing liberal democracy there, and that anybody who said otherwise was a racist who didn't want Arabs to have nice things.

What did you think of the interview? To me, the most significant moment came when Putin said, addressing a hypothetical American, What are you doing over here, making war where you don't belong? Don't you have enough problems at home, with your open border, and your overwhelming debt?

One more thing: CNN is calling the interview a "propaganda victory" for Putin. Absurd. Every interview with a political leader, especially during wartime, is "propaganda". Do they really think their fawning coverage of Volodomyr Zelensky isn't propaganda? I don't fault Zelensky for this, nor do I fault to a point CNN. It is the journalist's responsibility to sit down and interview these figures. If they are any good, they will ask important questions. And, subsequent journalism will help readers and viewers sort out truth from fiction in what the leader said. There is this bizarre, willful naivete that has taken over American journalism, which says that views from the leaders of whom we approve, and whose causes we favor, is "real," but the views of our enemies and their spokesmen are "propaganda." This is how we surrender thinking to those who do not have our best interests at heart.] -Rod Dreher
Tucker's interview was the solid journalism. That's why alphabet "journalists" are attacking it.

Most damning part of that interview, if true, was Putin saying the CIA was supporting Islamists in Chechnya against the Russian state.


On one hand: You really need to understand better how things work. The CIA doesn't make up its own mind on such things. It does what POTUS (or Congress, if significant funding is required) tells it to do, acting within strict limits of Executive Order…



Then who told the CIA to spy on Trump?






Here's the difference:

Covert action requires a Presidential Finding (Google it) and funding (or it's all covert and no action). Those are some pretty bright lines to limit cowboying.

Asking a liaison service to collect on someone/something for you is something every station does multiple times a day. It's primarily done when A) they have way better sources than you do on a particular target, or B) that someone is in an area where you're not supposed to collect. #2 is supposed to mean "we don't run human sources on British soil; we ask the Brits to do it for us." But an enterprising officer can always wink and nod to smudge lines to avoid required approvals. A lot of good has been done that way. But with the good comes…..


whiterock
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Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

ATL Bear said:

I think we need to change the name of the CIA to SPECTRE. We're at movie fantasy level of what some of you think the Agency is capable of.





The CIA has come out and admitted it was involved in influencing some foreign elections during the Cold War.



If they have lost that ability then something strange is going on and the organization has gone soft…


[The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has been involved in Italian politics since the end of World War II. The CIA helped swing the 1948 general election in favor of the centrist Christian Democrats and would continue to intervene in Italian politics until at least the early 1960s.]

Don't you think that's wise?

Preventing a peaceful communist takeover of Italy during the Cold War was kinda important, ergo worth some risk to prevent. Quite a bit different scenario than managing a relationship with a stable ally, where the risk/reward equation is inverted. In almost any conceivable scenario, the risk of getting caught meddling is far worse than the outcome of the election itself.
When Ukraine's population of militants, militias, battalions, tough as nails bros and civilians that would pose a threat to the incoming corporate regime are all dead and we federalize/westernize Ukraine...is the goal then to destabilize and topple Russia?


It's damned sure not to coddle and cocoon Russia so that it can go on indefinitely as an authoritarian state so fearful of the west that it relentlessly seeks to destabilize and topple NATO and the EU.
Sam Lowry
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

ATL Bear said:

I think we need to change the name of the CIA to SPECTRE. We're at movie fantasy level of what some of you think the Agency is capable of.





The CIA has come out and admitted it was involved in influencing some foreign elections during the Cold War.



If they have lost that ability then something strange is going on and the organization has gone soft…


[The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has been involved in Italian politics since the end of World War II. The CIA helped swing the 1948 general election in favor of the centrist Christian Democrats and would continue to intervene in Italian politics until at least the early 1960s.]

Don't you think that's wise?

Preventing a peaceful communist takeover of Italy during the Cold War was kinda important, ergo worth some risk to prevent. Quite a bit different scenario than managing a relationship with a stable ally, where the risk/reward equation is inverted. In almost any conceivable scenario, the risk of getting caught meddling is far worse than the outcome of the election itself.
When Ukraine's population of militants, militias, battalions, tough as nails bros and civilians that would pose a threat to the incoming corporate regime are all dead and we federalize/westernize Ukraine...is the goal then to destabilize and topple Russia?


It's damned sure not to coddle and cocoon Russia so that it can go on indefinitely as an authoritarian state so fearful of the west that it relentlessly seeks to destabilize and topple NATO and the EU.
Translation: yes.
whiterock
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Doc Holliday said:

Open your eyes people.



Funding for Ukraine didn't pass and now there's a national security threat. I guarantee you its about Russia based on bogus intel and will prompt hundreds of billions of aid to Ukraine.

Perfectly timed for more funding. You people are getting played.

Let's see what the intel looks like.

Intel on Russian intentions to invade was spot on….
whiterock
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I chuckled at this a though several of you would appreciate it.

Doc Holliday
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whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

ATL Bear said:

I think we need to change the name of the CIA to SPECTRE. We're at movie fantasy level of what some of you think the Agency is capable of.





The CIA has come out and admitted it was involved in influencing some foreign elections during the Cold War.



If they have lost that ability then something strange is going on and the organization has gone soft…


[The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has been involved in Italian politics since the end of World War II. The CIA helped swing the 1948 general election in favor of the centrist Christian Democrats and would continue to intervene in Italian politics until at least the early 1960s.]

Don't you think that's wise?

Preventing a peaceful communist takeover of Italy during the Cold War was kinda important, ergo worth some risk to prevent. Quite a bit different scenario than managing a relationship with a stable ally, where the risk/reward equation is inverted. In almost any conceivable scenario, the risk of getting caught meddling is far worse than the outcome of the election itself.
When Ukraine's population of militants, militias, battalions, tough as nails bros and civilians that would pose a threat to the incoming corporate regime are all dead and we federalize/westernize Ukraine...is the goal then to destabilize and topple Russia?

It's damned sure not to coddle and cocoon Russia so that it can go on indefinitely as an authoritarian state so fearful of the west that it relentlessly seeks to destabilize and topple NATO and the EU.
Then can we stop with the saving democracy bs in Ukraine and just admit that we want to use them so we can destroy Russia and that we're willing to spend however many trillions over countless years to achieve this goal?

WW3 is going to suck. The inflation from printing money is going to destroy the middle class.
Doc Holliday
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whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

Open your eyes people.



Funding for Ukraine didn't pass and now there's a national security threat. I guarantee you its about Russia based on bogus intel and will prompt hundreds of billions of aid to Ukraine.

Perfectly timed for more funding. You people are getting played.

Let's see what the intel looks like.

Intel on Russian intentions to invade was spot on….

Two days ago the Senate said Russia is losing the war in Ukraine.

Today they are saying Russia has developed space nukes.

That leads me to believe either they're lying or they're incompetent and often wrong. It can't be anything else.
Redbrickbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

ATL Bear said:

I think we need to change the name of the CIA to SPECTRE. We're at movie fantasy level of what some of you think the Agency is capable of.





The CIA has come out and admitted it was involved in influencing some foreign elections during the Cold War.



If they have lost that ability then something strange is going on and the organization has gone soft…


[The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has been involved in Italian politics since the end of World War II. The CIA helped swing the 1948 general election in favor of the centrist Christian Democrats and would continue to intervene in Italian politics until at least the early 1960s.]

Don't you think that's wise?

Preventing a peaceful communist takeover of Italy during the Cold War was kinda important, ergo worth some risk to prevent. Quite a bit different scenario than managing a relationship with a stable ally, where the risk/reward equation is inverted. In almost any conceivable scenario, the risk of getting caught meddling is far worse than the outcome of the election itself.
When Ukraine's population of militants, militias, battalions, tough as nails bros and civilians that would pose a threat to the incoming corporate regime are all dead and we federalize/westernize Ukraine...is the goal then to destabilize and topple Russia?


It's damned sure not to coddle and cocoon Russia so that it can go on indefinitely as an authoritarian state so fearful of the west that it relentlessly seeks to destabilize and topple NATO and the EU.



You can be sure that the massive 30+ nation NATO alliance of 700+ million people is not afraid of Russia and in no position to be undermined by a rusting out rapidly depopulating Russian state



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