Sam Lowry said:
sombear said:
Sam Lowry said:
sombear said:
Sam Lowry said:
sombear said:
Sam Lowry said:
sombear said:
Sam Lowry said:
sombear said:
Sam Lowry said:
sombear said:
Sam Lowry said:
sombear said:
Sam Lowry said:
sombear said:
Bear8084 said:
Sam Lowry said:
Bear8084 said:
What really happened:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/22/boris-johnson-ukraine-2022-peace-talks-russia
Thanks for confirming.
Not really.
Sam has trouble reading objectively. This confirms exactly what I said, and as I've posted multiple times, the Foreign Affairs article is by far the best sourced and most detailed analysis of the negotiations.
One can argue the west should have tried harder to convince Ukraine to settle. One cannot argue that the west did not allow it or had some crazy veto power.
Folks like Sam cannot accept this fact because it undermines their primary narrative that all of this somehow is our fault.
It confirms what's in the Nation article, with the addition of a straw man and a lot of opinion. No one is saying the West exercised technical veto power. As pointed out above, that is a vacuous argument. Did the West effectively shut down negotiations? Absolutely. Even mainstream American media have had to admit as much.
Wrong on both accounts.
First, several posters (and many right wing influencers) have repeatedly claimed that we would not allow Ukraine to settle and/or we forced them to fight. No nuance, just that clear. And it's false.
Second, we did not "effectively" shut down negotiations. Negotiations continued. Putin refused to meet with Zelensky despite repeated Zelensky requests. From the start until now, Ukraine 100% has had the discretion to decide to fight or settle. Mainstream media have admitted nothing of the sort.
Supporting Ukraine and not pleading with to settle is nowhere near "effectively shutting down negotiations."
You've unknowingly hit on a crucial point: Putin indeed refused to meet with Zelensky until negotiations were in the final stage. It was at that point that Boris Johnson intervened. I need hardly point out that saying "don't negotiate with criminals" is a far cry from "not pleading hard enough" to settle. I mean, really.
Your analysis is another example of the danger in believing one's own propaganda. The problem with Ukraine exercising its own discretion is that the Russians know the West instigated the conflict. You're free to deny it to your heart's content. Zelensky doesn't have that luxury.
He refused to meet with Zelensky, period. And, finally, when the parties got pretty close, Putin ordered the horrific war crimes. He thought that would create the leverage needed to push the deal over the line. Instead. It hardened Ukraine's resolve. Had he met with Zelensky before that, there may have been a formal agreement.
As to final your final point, you're conflating issues. Correct, I reject the argument that we instigated anything. But even if we did, that has no bearing on what happened in post-invasion negotiations. Ukraine made the call. Ukraine still is making the call.
Putin did not refuse to meet, period. He refused to meet until the deal was close to final.
The alleged war crimes are completely irrelevant, except as a pretext to end negotiations.
The West's involvement has everything to do with post-invasion talks. It would be hard enough for Russia to trust a deal we claimed to support. With our opposition it's basically impossible.
If you knew anything about the negotiations you'd know that Russia wanted us to be part of the deal.
Bucha, a pretext? Nice.
Of course Russia wanted us to be part of the deal. That's what I'm saying. There was little that Ukraine could do without our support.
The fact that Bucha was cited as a reason to end negotiations is telling. It's another version of the Western talking point that you don't negotiate with criminals. If you're really concerned about war crimes, you want to end the war sooner rather than later. I understand that may not be satisfying emotionally, but emotions aren't supposed to govern when the stakes are this high.
As you know (at least I assume you do) negotiations did not end. Putin just ordered Bucha (and others) at the worst possible time. It goes without saying that trust is major issue in any negotiation. Totally understandable to me how something as horrific as Bucha would seriously undermine trust. That massacre in addition to Ukraine performing well on the battlefield slowed real momentum that had been building.
Of course, there were still major roadblocks to settlement, not the least of which was one of the keys to the deal that I'm guessing you, Red, and Reality would have never supported - that the U.S. agree to take military action directly against Russia if Russia violated the agreement.
Look, I've said all along - and the best reporting confirmed - that both sides share blame in the failed negotiations. My main point is that your narratives on the negotiations - that (1) the U.S. actually or effectively tubed a deal and (2) Russia had offered simply taking over parts of the east - are pure fiction.
Regarding your second point, it goes without saying that Ukrainian neutrality was always going to be part of any deal. That's not a matter of Ukraine giving anything up. They had already agreed to it, and limitations on military power were an ancillary means of enforcing what they had violated by attempting to join NATO. All they would really have given up in exchange for independence was the Donbas.
-Pro-Russia regime change
-Federal, pro-Russia history and civics taught in schools
-Forced trade with Russia and trade restrictions elsewhere
Are you sure you're reading objectively? Because none of those points were in the draft agreement as reported by WSJ, Foreign Affairs, or anyone else that I've seen. There is some conjecture that regime change was part of Putin's original goal before negotiations started, but there's not a shred of evidence offered.
I would not have supported a security agreement committing the US beyond what was in the Budapest Memorandum and even beyond NATO Article 5. But that was far from the only option. Zelensky was advised that such a demand was unrealistic, and there's every reason to think the West could have persuaded him. Instead we delivered a clear message against any further negotiation.
There are general references in the FA article and other sources. And future U.S. military assistance was an integral part of the framework. There was no other way to come close to assuring Russian compliance. I've not seen anything saying we told Zelensky that was a deal-breaker.
Our refusal to participate in any multilateral agreement was obviously a deal-breaker. As you said, the Russians wanted us to be involved.
You've argued that the agreement would have left Ukraine dependent on Western intervention in case of hostilities with Russia. If that's true, US military assistance in peacetime was anything but an integral part of the framework. If anything it was a contradiction. Of course there was a reason for us to consider it essential, and that has to with our real goal. Not to achieve peace, but to build up an anti-Russian military force in Ukraine. Which is exactly what we did.
Regarding limitations on Ukraine's military, just look at the concessions that Germany made in order to achieve reunification. They included drastic reductions in military capacity, renunciation of nuclear ambitions, and the agreement that no foreign forces would be stationed in the former East Germany. Such demands are well precedented and completely unsurprising.
I don't understand your second paragraph. If you don't mind, please try right explain further.
I see your point on military limitations in general, but Germany is a poor example b/c the circumstances were nothing like Russia/Ukraine.
What made Russia's demands so difficult were the numbers. Ukraine wouldn't have been able to defend itself against invader using bows and arrows. Russia would have had zero deterrent - at least without the pledge of U.S. force.
I think you and I agree negotiations were exceedingly complex. As I've posted before, I actually came away with a more negative view of Zelensky after reading FA and some recent corp analysis. I agree with the majority of analysts I trust that both sides looked bad.
I just try to rebut those posters who try to minimize what Russia was (and still is demanding (e.g, they just wanted a bit more of the east) or who claim it was an easy call for Ukraine to bend over. It wasn't. In fact, it would have been almost unprecedented in world history.
I acknowledge however that it might have been better than how this thing will end.
I took "future military assistance" to mean support for the Ukrainian military. I see now you probably meant US intervention.
All I really disagree with is the part in bold. I think you share the assumption of most Western commentators that the Russians entered negotiations because they were unprepared militarily. That has proven to be the grossest of miscalculations. The Russian successes we're seeing now were not made in a day. Far from being unprecedented, capitulation was the only realistic option. It was only the West's outlandish promises that pushed Ukraine the other way.
Correct. A key element was the U.S. (and allies) guaranteeing to use direct force against Russia if Russia ever reneged.
Yes, of course, capitulation of this kind has occurred AFTER a brutal war where an undermanned and outgunned country or group fights despite knowing the odds and loses. But history has proven that people will fight for the freedom against all odds.
In my view, the biggest hole in your theory that we pushed Ukraine (besides the reporting) is that then and now Ukrainians have overwhelmingly supported defending themselves and not giving in. As I've posted many times, that may be surprising or even seem idiotic to many of us, but until one's very freedom and liberty is threatened, it is impossible to put ourselves in their shoes. And, again, history has proven that is how free people react.
I surmise from your posts that you are knowledgeable about Eastern Euro and likely have spent time there. If so, you know the abject hatred for Putin among most former Soviet states. We really have nothing to compare it to here. Maybe OBL, but I don't think that even quite captures it.
You and I will never agree on Russia's war goals, expectations, or success (or lack thereof). Putin expected a quick win. He has been fuming from early in the invasion. They have failed miserably according to their own goals and expectations. Putin misjudged Ukraine's military and resolve. He overestimated his own military. And he expected the west to back off far sooner. He was correct that China, North Korea, and Iran would step up big time for him, and that India would help indirectly.