Cyclical history is a poor substitute for understanding the mechanisms -- natural, cultural, industrial, etc. -- that drive historical change. Scratch the surface of your theory, and what mechanisms do we find? Crude, borderline racist assumptions based on shallow understanding at best. That's all you've got. But it's not the worst part. The worst part is that many of your assumptions are being disproven daily. You assured us that the Russians would be defeated in Ukraine because of what you consider their inherent corruption, rigidity, and lack of innovation. No doubt you'll stick to this mythology even as they march through Kiev, but by now most people can see reality.whiterock said:Bingo.FLBear5630 said:Sam Lowry said:You can be sure that Ukraine is not what Russia wants to be compared with. That's why they're taking steps to make sure they don't meet the same fate.FLBear5630 said:.Sam Lowry said:Nothing about Russia's ways prevents it from being peaceful or productive. Since Yeltsin's departure they've done a lot better economically than Ukraine. Think about why that might be.FLBear5630 said:Sam Lowry said:They were moving too fast. That's the problem.FLBear5630 said:Sam Lowry said:
They were embraced to a limited extent, and more as a vassal. Putin did indeed say that Russia was part of Europe. I don't remember Europe saying the same.
They tried. Look up Council of Europe. That is a good example of how Europe tried to work with Russia.
Russia's economic system was so different, did they expect no learning curve moving to capitalism and democracy?
Moving too fast does not indicate not wanting Russia to be a peaceful, productive member of Europe and get along with NATO.
The issue is Russia couldnt take being behind and went back to old ways.
Really? Russia best Ukraine! I am sure that is who Putin wants to be compared. I am sure Putin is ecstatic he had to take Xi's deal. Because we know the Chinese are famous for fair deals.
Russia's economy is on the level of Mexico and Canada. Beating Ukraine is like a the US comparing itself to Ethiopia.
Putin guided Russia from being invited into the Council of Europe, even though they didn't qualify, to competing with Mexico. They would have been better off forgetting Ukraine and focusing on EU trade.
The West made every accomodations to incorporate Russia into a modern 1st world economic and political Nation. They included them on Coucils that they were not qualified.
But Russia could not get around having a learning curve and resorted right back to the same Tsarist/Politboro strongman form of Govt using military to force what they wanted. In Russias mind missiles and tanks outweigh economy and trade. They shouldn't have to catch up to the West. Why should they when they can just threaten, assisnate and invade to get what they want.
Russian history is cycle of expansion, collapse, restructuring, expansion, etc.... Included in the "restructuring" phase is an acute awareness of the need to adopt "western reforms" in order that Russia may achieve its full potential, rightful place among nations, etc..... But the reforms never get very far. They require elites to give up more power than they are willing to do. So there's just a little improvement, then back to the old ways.
There's about 1500 years of those cycles......
I
Like most cyclical analyses, yours stretches some facts and omits others. You could take any number of European countries and force-fit them into the same box. It's a lazy exercise which ultimately proves nothing. And it fails for the same reason your military analysis has failed so spectacularly. The two are not unrelated.