FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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trey3216 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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trey3216 said:

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whiterock said:

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Meanwhile, back at the ranch (on Russias eastern border region with NoKo……

‼️ Russia: Mass Power outage in Primorsky Krai

It did shut down the railways.

Here’s a thread about what *appears* to be the cause and what are the repercussions. pic.twitter.com/hJqeUUqWeq

— Prune60 (@Prune602) August 16, 2024

---

Redbrick will chime in with a nice copy/paste from Wikipedia about how Mongolia was property of the Chinese prior to the Khans, just to show how long the Chinese have lavished the idea.

---

lol more like tell you how China demographically does not have the man power to conquer anyone in the future.

But it interesting how people love to return to this tire out mid 20th century idea of the "endless hordes of Han soldiers" ready to march and conquer at a Dear Leaders whim....its not 1955 anymore

Chinese leaders have no interest in war with a northern neighbor that is securing their frontier and providing them resources for cheap and China being in demographic collapse does have the ability to risk a major war for no real reason.

ps

I don't need wiki to tell me that Mongolia & the Mongols owned China far more often than the reverse

---

They have the manpower to conquer Russia (thanks to their horrific blunder in the 'Special Military Operation')... and they will take what they can from them in the coming years.

---

lol ok well we will see in the future.

Not the problem of Americans at the end of the day who owns Lake Baikal or some frozen Asian lands north of Beijing

But I doubt your prediction comes true

---

No, they may not have the manpower in the future. They have it now, which makes them more dangerous in the short term. China STILL has over 4x more reaching military age than we do. Still more than 2x US, Japan and S Korea combined. There is MORE then enough to invade north and south...

What they don't have is Blue-Water experience. The North and Taiwan is about all they can do because they can't operate in Blue Water to move, defend and supply an invasion force outside of the S China Sea. What they will do, deny us use of our bases in the Pacific and keep us back to Pearl and East. While people like you and Sam say "they weren't supposed to be able to do this..."



Population Reaching Military Age Annually by Country (2024) (globalfirepower.com)

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whiterock said:

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FLBear5630 said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Meanwhile, back at the ranch (on Russias eastern border region with NoKo……

‼️ Russia: Mass Power outage in Primorsky Krai

It did shut down the railways.

Here’s a thread about what *appears* to be the cause and what are the repercussions. pic.twitter.com/hJqeUUqWeq

— Prune60 (@Prune602) August 16, 2024

---

Redbrick will chime in with a nice copy/paste from Wikipedia about how Mongolia was property of the Chinese prior to the Khans, just to show how long the Chinese have lavished the idea.

---

lol more like tell you how China demographically does not have the man power to conquer anyone in the future.

But it interesting how people love to return to this tire out mid 20th century idea of the "endless hordes of Han soldiers" ready to march and conquer at a Dear Leaders whim....its not 1955 anymore

Chinese leaders have no interest in war with a northern neighbor that is securing their frontier and providing them resources for cheap and China being in demographic collapse does have the ability to risk a major war for no real reason.

ps

I don't need wiki to tell me that Mongolia & the Mongols owned China far more often than the reverse

---

They have the manpower to conquer Russia (thanks to their horrific blunder in the 'Special Military Operation')... and they will take what they can from them in the coming years.

---

lol ok well we will see in the future.

Not the problem of Americans at the end of the day who owns Lake Baikal or some frozen Asian lands north of Beijing

But I doubt your prediction comes true

---

No, they may not have the manpower in the future. They have it now, which makes them more dangerous in the short term. China STILL has over 4x more reaching military age than we do. Still more than 2x US, Japan and S Korea combined. There is MORE then enough to invade north and south...

What they don't have is Blue-Water experience. The North and Taiwan is about all they can do because they can't operate in Blue Water to move, defend and supply an invasion force outside of the S China Sea. What they will do, deny us use of our bases in the Pacific and keep us back to Pearl and East. While people like you and Sam say "they weren't supposed to be able to do this..."



Population Reaching Military Age Annually by Country (2024) (globalfirepower.com)

---

check that list at link and you will find in 49th place a country named "Ukraine" with 476k per year reaching military age. That's a very large number, more than enough to supply Ukraine with enough troops to defend their homeland against Russia.

The challenge for Ukraine is logistics - weapons, ammo, fuel, etc.... As long as Nato supplies the essentials, Ukraine has plenty of manpower to keep up the fight.

The question of who wins the war is not a question of manpower; it's a question of whose total war effort fails first. Russia is already fully mobilized; Nato is not. That is an advantage for Team Ukraine, and partly explains why they are expanding the front into Kursk Oblast.

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Realitybites said:

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Germany has had enough.

Germany To Ban All New Ukraine Military Aid

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beginning-end-germany-ban-all-new-ukraine-military-aid

Ukraine Must Pay Germany Back For Damage From Nord Stream Bombing

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-must-pay-germany-back-damage-nord-stream-bombing-bundestag-lawmaker

---

whiterock said:

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Realitybites said:

---

Germany has had enough.

Germany To Ban All New Ukraine Military Aid

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beginning-end-germany-ban-all-new-ukraine-military-aid

Ukraine Must Pay Germany Back For Damage From Nord Stream Bombing

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-must-pay-germany-back-damage-nord-stream-bombing-bundestag-lawmaker

---

Don't get out over your skis. They are not immediate, and they do not affect monies already pledged. They phase in thru 2027. They were proposed before the stories of alleged Ukrainian involvement in the Nordstream bombing were published. Germany has a budget crunch, too.......

https://www.yahoo.com/news/german-finance-ministry-refutes-reports-141518743.html
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/germany-plans-to-cut-ukraine-aid-to-just-6pc-of-current-total/ar-AA1p0bSH

Moreover, they are "direct bi-lateral" aid, not NATO aid. Germany is not going to oppose aid to Ukraine.

Proper context here is that Germany has a tough budget situation, so is in "scale back: rather than "ramp up": mode. Then the Nordstream bombing stories create immediate political pressures, which must be pandered to. in early 2025, I would expect to hear stories of new Germain aid packages.

Nobody with actual grey matter between the ears wants to cut all aid and let Russia have Ukraine for nothing.

---

🚨💥 Russian milblogger Romanov reports that the Ukrainians have launched a new offensive in Zaporizhzhia following the transfer of some Russian units from there to Kursk

It's totally unexpected 😉 pic.twitter.com/DQUdQIIXfc

— PS01 △ (@PStyle0ne1) August 20, 2024

The most insane moment of the night. Biden gets the crowd to tearfully cheer NATO expansion, quotes Henry Kissinger on his deathbed invoking Napoleon, then screams "UKRAINE IS STILL FREE" after 2+ years of nonstop escalating carnage and nuclear brinksmanship with no end in sight pic.twitter.com/La0YQXhWmP

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) August 20, 2024

Ukraine targets Moscow with "one of the largest" drone attacks https://t.co/UEhCK7jnEV

— Axios (@axios) August 21, 2024

🚨 BREAKING: Ukrainian forces are now invading Russia in Bryansk region.
Battles reported on the border. pic.twitter.com/u73mHtkeOX

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) August 21, 2024

Sam Lowry said:

---

Ukrainian MP Mariana Bezuglaya:

"Ukrainian armed forces are being withdrawn from Donetsk oblast, leaving entire strips of the front to their fate. Our units are being withdrawn from there. Ammunition is not being added. The Russians are passing through empty fortifications. In such circumstances the occupation of Pokrovsk is a matter of the near future, and Toretsk is living out its last days. It looks as if we are giving up Donetsk region. Beyond Pokrovsk is the direct route to Pavlohrad, where there are no fortifications at all, and then there is the Dnieper. Beyond Toretsk is the Kramatorsk agglomeration, and then there is Kharkiv region. No equipment has been installed for the administrative border of the Donetsk region."

---

trey3216 said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Ukrainian MP Mariana Bezuglaya:

"Ukrainian armed forces are being withdrawn from Donetsk oblast, leaving entire strips of the front to their fate. Our units are being withdrawn from there. Ammunition is not being added. The Russians are passing through empty fortifications. In such circumstances the occupation of Pokrovsk is a matter of the near future, and Toretsk is living out its last days. It looks as if we are giving up Donetsk region. Beyond Pokrovsk is the direct route to Pavlohrad, where there are no fortifications at all, and then there is the Dnieper. Beyond Toretsk is the Kramatorsk agglomeration, and then there is Kharkiv region. No equipment has been installed for the administrative border of the Donetsk region."

---

Saw some videos of Russian citizens in Kursk the other day talking to Russian bloggers and media folks. Saying how the Ukrainians were giving them food, toiletries, and leaving their houses undisturbed. Unlike Russia who raped, pillaged and destroyed everything in their way.

---

BREAKING:

Finnish press reports that NATO and Finland will announce in the coming weeks that a NATO armoured brigade will be deployed in Finland.

Swedish and Norwegian troops will be part of the multinational force stationed in Mikkeli, which is 140 km from the border.

🇫🇮🇸🇪🇳🇴 pic.twitter.com/EfMPausJlw

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 22, 2024

There's only 2 Western countries that clamp down on exports to Russia via third countries like Kyrgyzstan: the UK (green) and the US (orange). The EU is a free-for-all, where Germany (black) and Italy (purple) export like crazy. South Korea (grey) is also very bad. Shame... pic.twitter.com/ZjgKkCrGOk

— Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) August 17, 2024

This picture is not from immigration center. It is from Ukrainian captivity. POWs from ruzzian army. Cuba, Shri-Lanka, Nepal, Somali.... They were searching for work in Ruzzia but ended up on the frontline in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/qdKXPY76CZ

— Ilja Andrejev (@iljaandreev) August 26, 2024

trey3216 said:

---

This picture is not from immigration center. It is from Ukrainian captivity. POWs from ruzzian army. Cuba, Shri-Lanka, Nepal, Somali.... They were searching for work in Ruzzia but ended up on the frontline in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/qdKXPY76CZ

— Ilja Andrejev (@iljaandreev) August 26, 2024

---

Realitybites said:

---

Update (5:15pm ET): It appears that the US-made F-16 fighter jet, which was handed over to Ukraine earlier this year, was downed by a Ukrainian Patriot air defense system in a friendly fire incident, Ukrainian lawmaker Maryana Bezuglaya said cited by TASS.
"According to my information, the F-16 of the Ukrainian pilot Alexey 'Moonfish' Mes was shot down by the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system due to a lack of coordination between the [military] units," she wrote on Telegram.
The lawmaker criticized the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for falsely describing the incident as "a crash."
"The culture of lies in the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as in other higher military headquarters, leads to the fact that the system of managing military decisions does not improve on the basis of truthful, consistently collected analytics, but deteriorates and even collapses, as is happening in the other directions," she wrote.

---

Quote:

---

Determining what this operation says about Ukraine's overall strategy and the implications it has for the broader war effort is essential. In some ways, the offensive raises more questions than answers.
…
For much of 2024, the West has been supporting a Ukrainian strike campaign in Crimea without a good explanation for what was meant to follow. It was serviceable as an end onto itself, degrading Russian air defense and support infrastructure. But that campaign now seems disconnected from Ukraine's efforts in Kursk and its broader drone strike campaign against economic infrastructure in Russia. A series of disparate efforts do not a strategy make.
…
Since 2023, Washington has been out of ideas for how to successfully end the war on terms favorable to Ukraine. Kyiv, meanwhile, has been focused on stabilizing the frontline, but equally worried about the prevailing gloomy narrative and the sense that Ukraine is losing the war. The Kursk operation helps address the latter at the risk of doing damage to the former. Whether or not Kursk succeeds, at least it is not an attempt to refight the failed 2023 offensive, a set piece battle in which Ukraine held no decisive advantages. That said, Kyiv's present theory of success remains unclear.

---

Quote:

---

The town of Pokrovsk plays a crucial role as a logistics hub used by Ukrainian forces in the eastern region of Donbas. It is home to a key railway station, and it is located at the intersection of several important roads.

Russian forces have for months sought to capture the town, but their advance has quickened in recent weeks and they have seized the village of Novohrodivka about 10km (6 miles) to the south east.

Ukraine had hoped that by seizing territory in Russia's Kursk region it would be able to divert Russian troops away from their eastern advance, but that has not happened. If anything the Russian offensive on Pokrovsk, and Toretsk further to the north east, has intensified.

"Pokrovsk is a very important hub, a centre of defence. If we lose Pokrovsk, the entire front line will crumble," military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov warned.

Ukraine relies on the town's rail and road infrastructure to provide supplies and reinforcements to its troops on the eastern front line, as well as to evacuate the wounded.

Losing Pokrovsk to Russian forces would mean these vital military tasks would become far more complicated.
It would also increase the risk to other strategically important towns, such as Chasiv Yar, which sits atop commanding heights giving control over the wider area.

"If they cut our logistics, then Chasiv Yar will be doomed," says analyst Pavlo Narozhny. "It will be a matter of time before we'll have to pull out of it because we won't be able to supply our fighters there."

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

In the Kursk region, Ukraine's 152nd Mechanized Brigade has been reorganized into a light infantry brigade, i.e. without tanks, armored fighting vehicles, or heavy artillery.

Foreign Affairs magazine (in the most tactful terms possible) acknowledges the failure of the Kursk offensive:

Quote:

---

Determining what this operation says about Ukraine's overall strategy and the implications it has for the broader war effort is essential. In some ways, the offensive raises more questions than answers.
…
For much of 2024, the West has been supporting a Ukrainian strike campaign in Crimea without a good explanation for what was meant to follow. It was serviceable as an end onto itself, degrading Russian air defense and support infrastructure. But that campaign now seems disconnected from Ukraine's efforts in Kursk and its broader drone strike campaign against economic infrastructure in Russia. A series of disparate efforts do not a strategy make.
…
Since 2023, Washington has been out of ideas for how to successfully end the war on terms favorable to Ukraine. Kyiv, meanwhile, has been focused on stabilizing the frontline, but equally worried about the prevailing gloomy narrative and the sense that Ukraine is losing the war. The Kursk operation helps address the latter at the risk of doing damage to the former. Whether or not Kursk succeeds, at least it is not an attempt to refight the failed 2023 offensive, a set piece battle in which Ukraine held no decisive advantages. That said, Kyiv's present theory of success remains unclear.

---

Meanwhile Russia is quickly approaching the endgame in the Donbas. From the BBC:

Quote:

---

The town of Pokrovsk plays a crucial role as a logistics hub used by Ukrainian forces in the eastern region of Donbas. It is home to a key railway station, and it is located at the intersection of several important roads.

Russian forces have for months sought to capture the town, but their advance has quickened in recent weeks and they have seized the village of Novohrodivka about 10km (6 miles) to the south east.

Ukraine had hoped that by seizing territory in Russia's Kursk region it would be able to divert Russian troops away from their eastern advance, but that has not happened. If anything the Russian offensive on Pokrovsk, and Toretsk further to the north east, has intensified.

"Pokrovsk is a very important hub, a centre of defence. If we lose Pokrovsk, the entire front line will crumble," military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov warned.

Ukraine relies on the town's rail and road infrastructure to provide supplies and reinforcements to its troops on the eastern front line, as well as to evacuate the wounded.

Losing Pokrovsk to Russian forces would mean these vital military tasks would become far more complicated.
It would also increase the risk to other strategically important towns, such as Chasiv Yar, which sits atop commanding heights giving control over the wider area.

"If they cut our logistics, then Chasiv Yar will be doomed," says analyst Pavlo Narozhny. "It will be a matter of time before we'll have to pull out of it because we won't be able to supply our fighters there."

---

---

Yet, it still goes on... You have been posting articles like this for years now. It is over... Ukraine then invades Russia...

I will believe your stuff when they are at the table and Ukraine surrenders.

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

In the Kursk region, Ukraine's 152nd Mechanized Brigade has been reorganized into a light infantry brigade, i.e. without tanks, armored fighting vehicles, or heavy artillery.

Foreign Affairs magazine (in the most tactful terms possible) acknowledges the failure of the Kursk offensive:

Quote:

---

Determining what this operation says about Ukraine's overall strategy and the implications it has for the broader war effort is essential. In some ways, the offensive raises more questions than answers.
…
For much of 2024, the West has been supporting a Ukrainian strike campaign in Crimea without a good explanation for what was meant to follow. It was serviceable as an end onto itself, degrading Russian air defense and support infrastructure. But that campaign now seems disconnected from Ukraine's efforts in Kursk and its broader drone strike campaign against economic infrastructure in Russia. A series of disparate efforts do not a strategy make.
…
Since 2023, Washington has been out of ideas for how to successfully end the war on terms favorable to Ukraine. Kyiv, meanwhile, has been focused on stabilizing the frontline, but equally worried about the prevailing gloomy narrative and the sense that Ukraine is losing the war. The Kursk operation helps address the latter at the risk of doing damage to the former. Whether or not Kursk succeeds, at least it is not an attempt to refight the failed 2023 offensive, a set piece battle in which Ukraine held no decisive advantages. That said, Kyiv's present theory of success remains unclear.

---

Meanwhile Russia is quickly approaching the endgame in the Donbas. From the BBC:

Quote:

---

The town of Pokrovsk plays a crucial role as a logistics hub used by Ukrainian forces in the eastern region of Donbas. It is home to a key railway station, and it is located at the intersection of several important roads.

Russian forces have for months sought to capture the town, but their advance has quickened in recent weeks and they have seized the village of Novohrodivka about 10km (6 miles) to the south east.

Ukraine had hoped that by seizing territory in Russia's Kursk region it would be able to divert Russian troops away from their eastern advance, but that has not happened. If anything the Russian offensive on Pokrovsk, and Toretsk further to the north east, has intensified.

"Pokrovsk is a very important hub, a centre of defence. If we lose Pokrovsk, the entire front line will crumble," military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov warned.

Ukraine relies on the town's rail and road infrastructure to provide supplies and reinforcements to its troops on the eastern front line, as well as to evacuate the wounded.

Losing Pokrovsk to Russian forces would mean these vital military tasks would become far more complicated.
It would also increase the risk to other strategically important towns, such as Chasiv Yar, which sits atop commanding heights giving control over the wider area.

"If they cut our logistics, then Chasiv Yar will be doomed," says analyst Pavlo Narozhny. "It will be a matter of time before we'll have to pull out of it because we won't be able to supply our fighters there."

---

---

Yet, it still goes on... You have been posting articles like this for years now. It is over... Ukraine then invades Russia...

I will believe your stuff when they are at the table and Ukraine surrenders.

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

In the Kursk region, Ukraine's 152nd Mechanized Brigade has been reorganized into a light infantry brigade, i.e. without tanks, armored fighting vehicles, or heavy artillery.

Foreign Affairs magazine (in the most tactful terms possible) acknowledges the failure of the Kursk offensive:

Quote:

---

Determining what this operation says about Ukraine's overall strategy and the implications it has for the broader war effort is essential. In some ways, the offensive raises more questions than answers.
…
For much of 2024, the West has been supporting a Ukrainian strike campaign in Crimea without a good explanation for what was meant to follow. It was serviceable as an end onto itself, degrading Russian air defense and support infrastructure. But that campaign now seems disconnected from Ukraine's efforts in Kursk and its broader drone strike campaign against economic infrastructure in Russia. A series of disparate efforts do not a strategy make.
…
Since 2023, Washington has been out of ideas for how to successfully end the war on terms favorable to Ukraine. Kyiv, meanwhile, has been focused on stabilizing the frontline, but equally worried about the prevailing gloomy narrative and the sense that Ukraine is losing the war. The Kursk operation helps address the latter at the risk of doing damage to the former. Whether or not Kursk succeeds, at least it is not an attempt to refight the failed 2023 offensive, a set piece battle in which Ukraine held no decisive advantages. That said, Kyiv's present theory of success remains unclear.

---

Meanwhile Russia is quickly approaching the endgame in the Donbas. From the BBC:

Quote:

---

The town of Pokrovsk plays a crucial role as a logistics hub used by Ukrainian forces in the eastern region of Donbas. It is home to a key railway station, and it is located at the intersection of several important roads.

Russian forces have for months sought to capture the town, but their advance has quickened in recent weeks and they have seized the village of Novohrodivka about 10km (6 miles) to the south east.

Ukraine had hoped that by seizing territory in Russia's Kursk region it would be able to divert Russian troops away from their eastern advance, but that has not happened. If anything the Russian offensive on Pokrovsk, and Toretsk further to the north east, has intensified.

"Pokrovsk is a very important hub, a centre of defence. If we lose Pokrovsk, the entire front line will crumble," military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov warned.

Ukraine relies on the town's rail and road infrastructure to provide supplies and reinforcements to its troops on the eastern front line, as well as to evacuate the wounded.

Losing Pokrovsk to Russian forces would mean these vital military tasks would become far more complicated.
It would also increase the risk to other strategically important towns, such as Chasiv Yar, which sits atop commanding heights giving control over the wider area.

"If they cut our logistics, then Chasiv Yar will be doomed," says analyst Pavlo Narozhny. "It will be a matter of time before we'll have to pull out of it because we won't be able to supply our fighters there."

---

---

Yet, it still goes on... You have been posting articles like this for years now. It is over... Ukraine then invades Russia...

I will believe your stuff when they are at the table and Ukraine surrenders.

---

"It happens slowly, then quickly."

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

In the Kursk region, Ukraine's 152nd Mechanized Brigade has been reorganized into a light infantry brigade, i.e. without tanks, armored fighting vehicles, or heavy artillery.

Foreign Affairs magazine (in the most tactful terms possible) acknowledges the failure of the Kursk offensive:

Quote:

---

Determining what this operation says about Ukraine's overall strategy and the implications it has for the broader war effort is essential. In some ways, the offensive raises more questions than answers.
…
For much of 2024, the West has been supporting a Ukrainian strike campaign in Crimea without a good explanation for what was meant to follow. It was serviceable as an end onto itself, degrading Russian air defense and support infrastructure. But that campaign now seems disconnected from Ukraine's efforts in Kursk and its broader drone strike campaign against economic infrastructure in Russia. A series of disparate efforts do not a strategy make.
…
Since 2023, Washington has been out of ideas for how to successfully end the war on terms favorable to Ukraine. Kyiv, meanwhile, has been focused on stabilizing the frontline, but equally worried about the prevailing gloomy narrative and the sense that Ukraine is losing the war. The Kursk operation helps address the latter at the risk of doing damage to the former. Whether or not Kursk succeeds, at least it is not an attempt to refight the failed 2023 offensive, a set piece battle in which Ukraine held no decisive advantages. That said, Kyiv's present theory of success remains unclear.

---

Meanwhile Russia is quickly approaching the endgame in the Donbas. From the BBC:

Quote:

---

The town of Pokrovsk plays a crucial role as a logistics hub used by Ukrainian forces in the eastern region of Donbas. It is home to a key railway station, and it is located at the intersection of several important roads.

Russian forces have for months sought to capture the town, but their advance has quickened in recent weeks and they have seized the village of Novohrodivka about 10km (6 miles) to the south east.

Ukraine had hoped that by seizing territory in Russia's Kursk region it would be able to divert Russian troops away from their eastern advance, but that has not happened. If anything the Russian offensive on Pokrovsk, and Toretsk further to the north east, has intensified.

"Pokrovsk is a very important hub, a centre of defence. If we lose Pokrovsk, the entire front line will crumble," military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov warned.

Ukraine relies on the town's rail and road infrastructure to provide supplies and reinforcements to its troops on the eastern front line, as well as to evacuate the wounded.

Losing Pokrovsk to Russian forces would mean these vital military tasks would become far more complicated.
It would also increase the risk to other strategically important towns, such as Chasiv Yar, which sits atop commanding heights giving control over the wider area.

"If they cut our logistics, then Chasiv Yar will be doomed," says analyst Pavlo Narozhny. "It will be a matter of time before we'll have to pull out of it because we won't be able to supply our fighters there."

---

---

Yet, it still goes on... You have been posting articles like this for years now. It is over... Ukraine then invades Russia...

I will believe your stuff when they are at the table and Ukraine surrenders.

---

"It happens slowly, then quickly."

---

Really? At some point the it will happen fast, don't know when but in the future it will go fast. Could be four years...

Ok, that is helpful.

---

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

In the Kursk region, Ukraine's 152nd Mechanized Brigade has been reorganized into a light infantry brigade, i.e. without tanks, armored fighting vehicles, or heavy artillery.

Foreign Affairs magazine (in the most tactful terms possible) acknowledges the failure of the Kursk offensive:

Quote:

---

Determining what this operation says about Ukraine's overall strategy and the implications it has for the broader war effort is essential. In some ways, the offensive raises more questions than answers.
…
For much of 2024, the West has been supporting a Ukrainian strike campaign in Crimea without a good explanation for what was meant to follow. It was serviceable as an end onto itself, degrading Russian air defense and support infrastructure. But that campaign now seems disconnected from Ukraine's efforts in Kursk and its broader drone strike campaign against economic infrastructure in Russia. A series of disparate efforts do not a strategy make.
…
Since 2023, Washington has been out of ideas for how to successfully end the war on terms favorable to Ukraine. Kyiv, meanwhile, has been focused on stabilizing the frontline, but equally worried about the prevailing gloomy narrative and the sense that Ukraine is losing the war. The Kursk operation helps address the latter at the risk of doing damage to the former. Whether or not Kursk succeeds, at least it is not an attempt to refight the failed 2023 offensive, a set piece battle in which Ukraine held no decisive advantages. That said, Kyiv's present theory of success remains unclear.

---

Meanwhile Russia is quickly approaching the endgame in the Donbas. From the BBC:

Quote:

---

The town of Pokrovsk plays a crucial role as a logistics hub used by Ukrainian forces in the eastern region of Donbas. It is home to a key railway station, and it is located at the intersection of several important roads.

Russian forces have for months sought to capture the town, but their advance has quickened in recent weeks and they have seized the village of Novohrodivka about 10km (6 miles) to the south east.

Ukraine had hoped that by seizing territory in Russia's Kursk region it would be able to divert Russian troops away from their eastern advance, but that has not happened. If anything the Russian offensive on Pokrovsk, and Toretsk further to the north east, has intensified.

"Pokrovsk is a very important hub, a centre of defence. If we lose Pokrovsk, the entire front line will crumble," military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov warned.

Ukraine relies on the town's rail and road infrastructure to provide supplies and reinforcements to its troops on the eastern front line, as well as to evacuate the wounded.

Losing Pokrovsk to Russian forces would mean these vital military tasks would become far more complicated.
It would also increase the risk to other strategically important towns, such as Chasiv Yar, which sits atop commanding heights giving control over the wider area.

"If they cut our logistics, then Chasiv Yar will be doomed," says analyst Pavlo Narozhny. "It will be a matter of time before we'll have to pull out of it because we won't be able to supply our fighters there."

---

---

Yet, it still goes on... You have been posting articles like this for years now. It is over... Ukraine then invades Russia...

I will believe your stuff when they are at the table and Ukraine surrenders.

---

"It happens slowly, then quickly."

---

Really? At some point the it will happen fast, don't know when but in the future it will go fast. Could be four years...

Ok, that is helpful.

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the "slowy, then quickly" dynamic applies to Russia as much if not more than it does to Ukraine.

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Quote:

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The Conservative Partnership Institute, a nerve center for incubating policies for a second Trump administration, co-sponsored a discussion in October 2022 about how to bring "peace in Ukraine" featuring Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs Peter Szijjarto.
Audience members included conservative policy and national security officials and GOP strategists, according to a person familiar with the meeting. Once seated, they were given pamphlets pushing unabashedly pro-Russia talking points.
"Russia has the will, strength, and patience to continue war," warned the document, which was given to POLITICO by a participant. "U.S aid to Ukraine must be severely constricted and Ukrainian President Zelensky should be encouraged by U.S. leadership to seek armistice and concede Ukraine as a neutral country."
"If the U.S. continues to enable war, it will result in the destruction of Ukraine and provoke further Russian aggression toward the West, with the potential for nuclear conflict," it said.

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Redbrickbear said:

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[Yesterday Politico dropped a story about how "former GOP officials are sounding the alarm over Trump's Orban embrace." Gosh, where would we be without Former GOP Officials, eh? The story attempts to demonize anyone who has anything to do with the Hungarian prime minister. Excerpt:

Quote:

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The Conservative Partnership Institute, a nerve center for incubating policies for a second Trump administration, co-sponsored a discussion in October 2022 about how to bring "peace in Ukraine" featuring Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs Peter Szijjarto.
Audience members included conservative policy and national security officials and GOP strategists, according to a person familiar with the meeting. Once seated, they were given pamphlets pushing unabashedly pro-Russia talking points.
"Russia has the will, strength, and patience to continue war," warned the document, which was given to POLITICO by a participant. "U.S aid to Ukraine must be severely constricted and Ukrainian President Zelensky should be encouraged by U.S. leadership to seek armistice and concede Ukraine as a neutral country."
"If the U.S. continues to enable war, it will result in the destruction of Ukraine and provoke further Russian aggression toward the West, with the potential for nuclear conflict," it said.

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You see what Politico is doing here? We are not supposed to evaluate these claims; we are supposed to reject them out of hand as "pro-Russian talking points."

This is the same kind of manipulation the Blob used to manufacture consent of the American people to support the Iraq War. What, you think Arabs don't deserve democracy? You want Iraq to create a mushroom cloud over an American city? You want the terrorists to win?!

The Orban government might be wrong in its analysis of the Ukraine war, but characterizing it as nothing more than "pro-Russian talking points" does a profound disservice to democratic publics in the US and Europe, who are financing NATO's participation in this war. If Orban's government is wrong, then explain how they're wrong. Don't talk to people like we're morons.]

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