The return is in large part already realized. Tens of thousands of armored vehicles and arty systems destroyed, largely eliminating a colossal stockpile and leaving Russia to rebuild with only what an economy the size of Italy can manage. They've suffered 800k casualties (give or take a couple hundred thousand), which given their demographic decline will accelerate the contraction of their manpower pool. They've suffered significant diplomatic and economic isolation, to include erosion of geopolitical position (Finland/Sweden accession to Nato). And on & on, etc...... Russia emerges from the war significantly weakened, ergo a much reduced threat to Nato, with the added insurance of preventing Russian transformation of Ukraine as a springboard for old ambitions in the Balkans and Eastern Europe.Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Redbrickbear said:whiterock said:Redbrickbear said:Sam Lowry said:LOLboognish_bear said:North Korean troops joining the conflict is the reason the US finally green lit Ukraine to strike at Russia with long-range missiles.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) November 17, 2024
A U.S. official has called Kim’s decision a “costly mistake.”
Source: Washington Post. pic.twitter.com/x3k9PcRxjM
A few years down the road we will find out that no N. Korean troops were ever sent into Ukraine
But why spoil a good yarn cooked up in DC and spread by cat ladies in the State Department and at NPR…What a lovely parting gift from Biden. He's blown past almost every escalation barrier in the past 2.5 years, after first playing the PR game where the administration acts like they're gravely conflicted. Firing missiles at **North Korean** troops is another dimension of disaster pic.twitter.com/MjVPdvkXKQ
— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) November 17, 2024
Technically, they are not in Ukraine now. They are in Russia, on the Kursk front. It's still a remarkable escalation.
Ignore Putin's threats…..
The moment never happens…until it does
Russia is not going to nuclear war over Ukraine. Is it really plausible that it would nuke a country it wants to occupy?
Probably not
But its a pretty crazy thing to escalate on....a worthless rusting out ex-soviet state that is highly corrupt and with a significant russian ethnic minority population right on the borders of Moscow.
Exactly. It was exceedingly unwise for Russia to invade a place like that. They could have for decades managed it as a weak, corrupt neutral state which vacillated hot & cold on Russia vs. Nato. Instead, they have galvanized Ukraine into the best army in Europe with a population who will fight Russia to the last man.
I'm sure no one thought a small conflict with tiny Serbia in the summer of 1914 would set the world on fire for decades....and lead to 2 different world wars and 70 million plus deaths and the collapse of an entire international order.
Another good point. Made complete sense that Austria would retaliate against Serbia over the assassination of the Archduke, but not much sense at all that Russia would declare war on a major European power on behalf of a very small country (Serbia) with which it had neither a common border not a treaty obligation. It was a serious miscalculation driven by ancient Russian ambitions to keep pressing toward a port on the Mediterranean, fortified by pan-Slavic romance. And it turned out very, very badly for Russia (particularly the Tsar).
Russia, you see has a bad habit of geopolitical miscalculation. Like, really bad miscalculations.
You and the genius liberals in DC are willing to risk a lot.....for very little in return.
Policy critics reflexively attach significant gravity to the contrived threat (Russian use of nuclear weapons in response to our Ukraine policy) and totally deny the existence of the real threat - re-subsumption of Ukraine back into Russian polity which would move Russian armies 600 miles closer to Nato countries we are obligated to defend. A good strategist must make the tyranny of distance work for him rather than against him.
Most of all, a good strategist does not engage in "end of history" folly. He must understands that time does little to change geography - a country has what it has. Ergo, a country must keep working the same old problems derivative of that geography, over and over and over..... History is a very good guide in that regard. Few countries have more megalomaniacal territorial ambitions than Russia. They don't think they are entitled own or control everything in the world, just everything that touches them.