Why Are We in Ukraine?

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Redbrickbear
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whiterock said:

Multiple outlets now reporting what I predicted - US aid to Ukraine will continue under Trump admin



Well we all know the DC foreign policy establishment (the blob) does not listen to the American people.

I guess we were wrong to hope Trump would do so and put America and Americans first
Doc Holliday
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whiterock said:

Multiple outlets now reporting what I predicted - US aid to Ukraine will continue under Trump admin

Taxpayer aid, provided by a collective populace that has over $1.4 trillion in credit card debt compounding.

Maybe it helps us to crush Russia in the long term, but if the long term is to fleece taxpayers and have our government increasingly behave like a cartel, then what the fu c k is the point? Is the end point where the US ironically starts behaving like an eastern country?

As I correctly predicted, this war is going to be another forever war. It's already gone on too long.

Is the west really going to achieve complete world dominance, only to sink their teeth into their own middle class? Are we supposed to cheer that on and be happy about it? The WEF, EU and our politicians blatantly claim that we'll own nothing and be happy about it and they're the biggest cheerleaders of this war.
sombear
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Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Multiple outlets now reporting what I predicted - US aid to Ukraine will continue under Trump admin



Well we all know the DC foreign policy establishment (the blob) does not listen to the American people.

I guess we were wrong to hope Trump would do so and put America and Americans first
Few are surprised by this. If Trump truly wants to negotiate a deal, it would be stupid to kneecap Ukraine. I do think, however, that Trump will have less patience than most if he believes Ukraine becomes the obstacle to a deal.
Daveisabovereproach
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Since we're doing the whole "just as I predicted" thing:

Ukraine is never in a million years "winning" this war in the sense that they are going to forcibly take back
Crimea and the eastern part of their country. Mr. Zelensky has recently admitted this, so it is not a point that is up for debate. Ukraine is basically sending soldiers to the front line at gunpoint. "Slava Ukraine "is over; they are ready for it to end

If Trump continues to use taxpayer money to give Ukraine weapons, it's only because this war is really, really good for the military/industrial complex which many politicians are heavily invested in.

Bottom line, the only way this war ends is through diplomatic means. This idea that they could bleed Russia dry in an attrition war was a pipe dream.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/lacking-manpower-ukraine-resorts-to-harsh-means-to-force-draft-dodgers-into-combat

https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/zelensky-admits-ukraine-cannot-retake-crimea-and-donbas-m5vwpfzqh
Bear8084
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sombear said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Multiple outlets now reporting what I predicted - US aid to Ukraine will continue under Trump admin



Well we all know the DC foreign policy establishment (the blob) does not listen to the American people.

I guess we were wrong to hope Trump would do so and put America and Americans first
Few are surprised by this. If Trump truly wants to negotiate a deal, it would be stupid to kneecap Ukraine. I do think, however, that Trump will have less patience than most if he believes Ukraine becomes the obstacle to a deal.


Fair and true.
sombear
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Daveisabovereproach said:

Since we're doing the whole "just as I predicted" thing:

Ukraine is never in a million years "winning" this war in the sense that they are going to forcibly take back
Crimea and the eastern part of their country. Mr. Zelensky has recently admitted this, so it is not a point that is up for debate. Ukraine is basically sending soldiers to the front line at gunpoint. "Slava Ukraine "is over; they are ready for it to end

If Trump continues to use taxpayer money to give Ukraine weapons, it's only because this war is really, really good for the military/industrial complex which many politicians are heavily invested in.

Bottom line, the only way this war ends is through diplomatic means. This idea that they could bleed Russia dry in an attrition war was a pipe dream.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/lacking-manpower-ukraine-resorts-to-harsh-means-to-force-draft-dodgers-into-combat

https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/zelensky-admits-ukraine-cannot-retake-crimea-and-donbas-m5vwpfzqh



Let's assume you're right, what exactly should Ukraine give up in a deal?
boognish_bear
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Daveisabovereproach
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sombear said:

Daveisabovereproach said:

Since we're doing the whole "just as I predicted" thing:

Ukraine is never in a million years "winning" this war in the sense that they are going to forcibly take back
Crimea and the eastern part of their country. Mr. Zelensky has recently admitted this, so it is not a point that is up for debate. Ukraine is basically sending soldiers to the front line at gunpoint. "Slava Ukraine "is over; they are ready for it to end

If Trump continues to use taxpayer money to give Ukraine weapons, it's only because this war is really, really good for the military/industrial complex which many politicians are heavily invested in.

Bottom line, the only way this war ends is through diplomatic means. This idea that they could bleed Russia dry in an attrition war was a pipe dream.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/lacking-manpower-ukraine-resorts-to-harsh-means-to-force-draft-dodgers-into-combat

https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/zelensky-admits-ukraine-cannot-retake-crimea-and-donbas-m5vwpfzqh



Let's assume you're right, what exactly should Ukraine give up in a deal?

Most logical path forward would be to make one last offensive incursion and then come to the bargaining prepared to give up the majority if not all of the areas that Russian troops currently occupy. It's a situation where possession is 9/10 of the law.

Of course, I realize that's not going to end the conflict permanently. There needs to be some sort of demilitarized zone or something to that effect that is monitored by a UN peacekeeping force. Even that might not be a permanent solution, but I think it's preferable to the current paradigm of an infinite war of attrition where Ukraine is likely to only slowly lose more territory than gain all of their lost territory back through fighting
sombear
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Daveisabovereproach said:

sombear said:

Daveisabovereproach said:

Since we're doing the whole "just as I predicted" thing:

Ukraine is never in a million years "winning" this war in the sense that they are going to forcibly take back
Crimea and the eastern part of their country. Mr. Zelensky has recently admitted this, so it is not a point that is up for debate. Ukraine is basically sending soldiers to the front line at gunpoint. "Slava Ukraine "is over; they are ready for it to end

If Trump continues to use taxpayer money to give Ukraine weapons, it's only because this war is really, really good for the military/industrial complex which many politicians are heavily invested in.

Bottom line, the only way this war ends is through diplomatic means. This idea that they could bleed Russia dry in an attrition war was a pipe dream.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/lacking-manpower-ukraine-resorts-to-harsh-means-to-force-draft-dodgers-into-combat

https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/zelensky-admits-ukraine-cannot-retake-crimea-and-donbas-m5vwpfzqh



Let's assume you're right, what exactly should Ukraine give up in a deal?

Most logical path forward would be to make one last offensive incursion and then come to the bargaining prepared to give up the majority if not all of the areas that Russian troops currently occupy. It's a situation where possession is 9/10 of the law.

Of course, I realize that's not going to end the conflict permanently. There needs to be some sort of demilitarized zone or something to that effect that is monitored by a UN peacekeeping force. Even that might not be a permanent solution, but I think it's preferable to the current paradigm of an infinite war of attrition where Ukraine is likely to only slowly lose more territory than gain all of their lost territory back through fighting


Reasonable
boognish_bear
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whiterock
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Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Multiple outlets now reporting what I predicted - US aid to Ukraine will continue under Trump admin



Well we all know the DC foreign policy establishment (the blob) does not listen to the American people.

I guess we were wrong to hope Trump would do so and put America and Americans first
No, you were just wrong about what actually puts America and Americans first.

Letting Russia fold a very large neutral country back into Russian polity, thereby putting Russian armies along hundreds of previously unexposed Nato borders is incredibly bad for America and Americans.
whiterock
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Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Multiple outlets now reporting what I predicted - US aid to Ukraine will continue under Trump admin

Taxpayer aid, provided by a collective populace that has over $1.4 trillion in credit card debt compounding.

Maybe it helps us to crush Russia in the long term, but if the long term is to fleece taxpayers and have our government increasingly behave like a cartel, then what the fu c k is the point? Is the end point where the US ironically starts behaving like an eastern country?

As I correctly predicted, this war is going to be another forever war. It's already gone on too long.

Is the west really going to achieve complete world dominance, only to sink their teeth into their own middle class? Are we supposed to cheer that on and be happy about it? The WEF, EU and our politicians blatantly claim that we'll own nothing and be happy about it and they're the biggest cheerleaders of this war.
bad foreign policy decisions will not solve our fiscal problems. it will make them worse.
Nothing is more expensive than getting directly involved in a hot war.


Redbrickbear
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whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Multiple outlets now reporting what I predicted - US aid to Ukraine will continue under Trump admin



Well we all know the DC foreign policy establishment (the blob) does not listen to the American people.

I guess we were wrong to hope Trump would do so and put America and Americans first
No, you were just wrong about what actually puts America and Americans first.

Letting Russia fold a very large neutral country back into Russian polity, thereby putting Russian armies along hundreds of previously unexposed Nato borders is incredibly bad for America and Americans.


Your argument is that the status quo in Europe in 2013 was somehow "dangerous for America and NATO borders"

When of course it was not
Redbrickbear
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whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Multiple outlets now reporting what I predicted - US aid to Ukraine will continue under Trump admin

Taxpayer aid, provided by a collective populace that has over $1.4 trillion in credit card debt compounding.

Maybe it helps us to crush Russia in the long term, but if the long term is to fleece taxpayers and have our government increasingly behave like a cartel, then what the fu c k is the point? Is the end point where the US ironically starts behaving like an eastern country?

As I correctly predicted, this war is going to be another forever war. It's already gone on too long.

Is the west really going to achieve complete world dominance, only to sink their teeth into their own middle class? Are we supposed to cheer that on and be happy about it? The WEF, EU and our politicians blatantly claim that we'll own nothing and be happy about it and they're the biggest cheerleaders of this war.
bad foreign policy decisions will not solve our fiscal problems. it will make them worse.
Nothing is more expensive than getting directly involved in a hot war.






He won't get 5% commitments

European States will hardly spend 2.5%

(ps...just checked and the NATO requirement is actually only 2%....and many of them don't even hit that low mark)
Doc Holliday
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whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Multiple outlets now reporting what I predicted - US aid to Ukraine will continue under Trump admin

Taxpayer aid, provided by a collective populace that has over $1.4 trillion in credit card debt compounding.

Maybe it helps us to crush Russia in the long term, but if the long term is to fleece taxpayers and have our government increasingly behave like a cartel, then what the fu c k is the point? Is the end point where the US ironically starts behaving like an eastern country?

As I correctly predicted, this war is going to be another forever war. It's already gone on too long.

Is the west really going to achieve complete world dominance, only to sink their teeth into their own middle class? Are we supposed to cheer that on and be happy about it? The WEF, EU and our politicians blatantly claim that we'll own nothing and be happy about it and they're the biggest cheerleaders of this war.
bad foreign policy decisions will not solve our fiscal problems. it will make them worse.
Nothing is more expensive than getting directly involved in a hot war.



Yeah but that's not what I'm saying. Elite corporate and banking interests are running the country much like oligarchs do in the east.

We're prioritizing foreign policy over domestic and have been for quite some time. We'll spend trillions on war and allow the middle class to hollow out.
ATL Bear
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Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Multiple outlets now reporting what I predicted - US aid to Ukraine will continue under Trump admin

Taxpayer aid, provided by a collective populace that has over $1.4 trillion in credit card debt compounding.

Maybe it helps us to crush Russia in the long term, but if the long term is to fleece taxpayers and have our government increasingly behave like a cartel, then what the fu c k is the point? Is the end point where the US ironically starts behaving like an eastern country?

As I correctly predicted, this war is going to be another forever war. It's already gone on too long.

Is the west really going to achieve complete world dominance, only to sink their teeth into their own middle class? Are we supposed to cheer that on and be happy about it? The WEF, EU and our politicians blatantly claim that we'll own nothing and be happy about it and they're the biggest cheerleaders of this war.
bad foreign policy decisions will not solve our fiscal problems. it will make them worse.
Nothing is more expensive than getting directly involved in a hot war.



Yeah but that's not what I'm saying. Elite corporate and banking interests are running the country much like oligarchs do in the east.

We're prioritizing foreign policy over domestic and have been for quite some time. We'll spend trillions on war and allow the middle class to hollow out.
We're spending Trillions more on the middle class, elderly and poor in this country. Shifting from foreign policy to domestic entitlement won't solve what's wrong. Consumerism isn't driven by weapons manufacturers or DOD contracts, and consumerism is where much more banking and corporate interests are, not to mention the much larger medical industrial complex. Keep your eye on the ball not the dancing bear distractions.
whiterock
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Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Multiple outlets now reporting what I predicted - US aid to Ukraine will continue under Trump admin



Well we all know the DC foreign policy establishment (the blob) does not listen to the American people.

I guess we were wrong to hope Trump would do so and put America and Americans first
No, you were just wrong about what actually puts America and Americans first.

Letting Russia fold a very large neutral country back into Russian polity, thereby putting Russian armies along hundreds of previously unexposed Nato borders is incredibly bad for America and Americans.


Your argument is that the status quo in Europe in 2013 was somehow "dangerous for America and NATO borders"

When of course it was not
Uh, no. The status quo for Europe in 2013 was sensible, except for mounting Russian pressure on Ukraine (which spilled over into outright imperial conquest in 2014). Obama's weak response only confirmed Russian assessments that Nato did not have the will to resist.

Trump changed that by providing lethal aid to Ukraine (for the first time....). He showed strength. Putin waited until the feckless Afghan Joe Biden was in office to launch the full scale invasion

Russia always has territorial ambitions. They coined the phrase "...probe bayonets and advance where you find mush..." They did exactly that in Ukraine. And yet, you still insist the mush will protect you.

whiterock
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Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Multiple outlets now reporting what I predicted - US aid to Ukraine will continue under Trump admin

Taxpayer aid, provided by a collective populace that has over $1.4 trillion in credit card debt compounding.

Maybe it helps us to crush Russia in the long term, but if the long term is to fleece taxpayers and have our government increasingly behave like a cartel, then what the fu c k is the point? Is the end point where the US ironically starts behaving like an eastern country?

As I correctly predicted, this war is going to be another forever war. It's already gone on too long.

Is the west really going to achieve complete world dominance, only to sink their teeth into their own middle class? Are we supposed to cheer that on and be happy about it? The WEF, EU and our politicians blatantly claim that we'll own nothing and be happy about it and they're the biggest cheerleaders of this war.
bad foreign policy decisions will not solve our fiscal problems. it will make them worse.
Nothing is more expensive than getting directly involved in a hot war.






He won't get 5% commitments

European States will hardly spend 2.5%

(ps...just checked and the NATO requirement is actually only 2%....and many of them don't even hit that low mark)
what he will get is more than we have now, which should inform your analysis of his worldview. Trump CLEARLY sees Russian ambitions in Central Europe as a national security threat. Which, of course, they obviously are. No serious, well-informed analysis of geopolitics, past or present, could come to any other conclusion.

I listened to an excellent speech by Niall Ferguson the other day in which he recounted a conversation he had with Kissinger just a couple of years ago. He asked "are we in a new cold war with Russia & China?" Kissinger reflected for a moment and responded "no, but we are in the foothills of one." I would describe it differently. We are defacto at war with Russia via proxy. And that war is going very, very badly for Russia at the moment. The question is how to end it in a way that, to paraphrase Liddell-Hart, "secures a better peace" for us. What does that better peace look like? How do we get there?

I am convinced that there is no pathway out of Kissinger's "foothills" that involves the survival of the Putin regime. The current Russian regime must suffer a catastrophic defeat, or the westward pressure on Nato will escalate, and war will loom ever greater. With interest rates at 21% amid peaking war production, Russia is indeed in a precarious situation. They cannot last as long as the West can in Ukraine........ They've already lost Sweden & Finland to Nato, and now Syria to Nato proxies. And the Caucasus is heating up (again), while Russian operations in the Sahel of Africa are at least temporarily severed from supply.

time to put another half-turn on the screw. Oh. Trump just did that - demanding Nato double its military production (which it can easily do).

Remember that time Reagan talked about Star Wars?

Do you see the landscape yet?
whiterock
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Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Multiple outlets now reporting what I predicted - US aid to Ukraine will continue under Trump admin

Taxpayer aid, provided by a collective populace that has over $1.4 trillion in credit card debt compounding.

Maybe it helps us to crush Russia in the long term, but if the long term is to fleece taxpayers and have our government increasingly behave like a cartel, then what the fu c k is the point? Is the end point where the US ironically starts behaving like an eastern country?

As I correctly predicted, this war is going to be another forever war. It's already gone on too long.

Is the west really going to achieve complete world dominance, only to sink their teeth into their own middle class? Are we supposed to cheer that on and be happy about it? The WEF, EU and our politicians blatantly claim that we'll own nothing and be happy about it and they're the biggest cheerleaders of this war.
bad foreign policy decisions will not solve our fiscal problems. it will make them worse.
Nothing is more expensive than getting directly involved in a hot war.



Yeah but that's not what I'm saying. Elite corporate and banking interests are running the country much like oligarchs do in the east.
The difference is, we have a system where ordinary people can organize and speak and push back against oligarchy to elect a guy like Donald Trump. (a lot of people voted for Obama for the same (mistaken) reasons.)

We're prioritizing foreign policy over domestic and have been for quite some time. We'll spend trillions on war and allow the middle class to hollow out.
Well, sorta. Foreign policy on national security is not causing that. Foreign policy on trade is.
Your comment above reflects the faulty premise running thru the vast majority of isolationist arguments - that disengaging from world affairs will help fix our domestic problems. It's the opposite. Disengagement will make those problems worse. How many new bases do you want to build in Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria? Do you want to have to build a 600 ship navy again? Maintain a 3m soldier army again? How is letting China bully the rest of Asia going to benefit our economy? (and on and on....)

Cutting all foreign aid does not balance the budget.
Closing DOD and disbanding our military does not balance the budget.
DOING BOTH DOES NOT BALANCE OUR BUDGET.

Close down Dept of Education. States can handle the role just fine.
But if you want to make a really big impact = end the Green Energy nonsense, all $93T of it.

Repeat after me: We cannot balance our budget with a series of bad foreign policy decisions.
whiterock
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and Russia cannot maintain an international presence with its old, rotted out fleet.

Ursa Major cargo ship used by Russian MOD sinks in the Western Med:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/24/europe/russia-cargo-ship-sinks-intl/index.html

Redbrickbear
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whiterock said:

and Russia cannot maintain an international presence with its old, rotted out fleet.

Ursa Major cargo ship used by Russian MOD sinks in the Western Med:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/24/europe/russia-cargo-ship-sinks-intl/index.html



How do these endless stories of Russian military incompetence and equipment, logistics, and command failures square with your sides assertion that Russia is some kind of great military threat that is gonna conquer Poland if we don't stage coups all around their border lands?

Its almost like russia is a rapidly demographically declining nation...with a really corrupt government....with a very weak military

We are as likely to find russian soldiers on the surface of the moon as we are finding them taking over Poland or Germany

They could not even win a war for the Gov. of Syria.....when Iranian forces and Shi'ite militia men were doing 90% of the actual front line fighting.
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