KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
ron.reagan said:
KaiBear said:
ron.reagan said:
KaiBear said:
ron.reagan said:
KaiBear said:
Assassin said:
KaiBear said:
Putin massing over 120,000 troops for the final push; as Ukraine is ready to collapse.
As money simply cannot replace lost blood, bone and brain matter.
Hate to see Putin win this; but Biden - Harris totally mishandled the entire situation.
Now unless Trump commits US troops, naval units and a no fly zone..............
Ukranine is finished.
He's read the room. No help to Zelensky
Putin has read the battlefield.....Zelensky has rin out of soldiers.
He's no where near out. He has more potential soldier than any country in Europe right now...
What is the source of these potential soldiers ?
Exactly how many casualties do you think Ukraine has taken? What is their population? How bad are you at math?
I believe Ukraine has over 300.000 of its combat aged men either killed or wounded.
Am actually pretty good at math.
Do you really think Ukraine is going to win this war ?
How many 15,16,17 year olds are now 18+ since the war started, Pythagoras?
The better question is how many 15,16,and 17 year olds have already been killed or crippled for life.
No, that's a dodge to avoid reality on the demographic details.
The answer to Ron's question is "a cohort somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.3 to 1.5 million." For perspective, that is roughly 1.5x the size of the current active duty Ukrainian military.
It is a cold hard fact that Ukraine is not going to run out of soldiers for many years. Given the circumstances of this conflict, they effectively have a bottomless well of bodies to send to the front. That will have profound impact on policy decisions, by everyone involved.
How long Ukraine lasts is a function of how long Nato sends enough money and ammo to keep the Ukrainian Army in the field. And in simple resource terms, Nato can easily outlast Russia. Russia knows that but believes Nato will throw in the towel. As you have.
that is Russia's game. Keep up the pressure, no matter how bad the losses get, in order to convince the West that Russian victory is inevitable (when such is not at all the case) thereby hoping to gain at the negotiating table what it cannot gain on the battlefield.
Must have missed how Russia continues to occupy large swaths of Ukrainian territory.
Must be a fantasy that Russia is raining down drone attacks on Ukraine in unprecedented numbers.
Reportedly Russia is now massing over 120,000 troops for still another advance.
And money isn't going to stop them.
Like I said. There are reasons why Ukraine cannot win. Available manpower to put in the field is not one of them. Same can be said about Russia. Available manpower is not a problem for them, either. The limits both of them face is marshaling the resources to EQUIP the soldiers they suit up. Money, Uniforms. Boots. Helmets. Rifles. Ammunition. Food. Water. Artillery Tubes. Artillery Rounds. Tanks. Tank ammunition. Gasoline. Jets. Jet fuel. missiles. And on and on and on. Transporting all that to the front. Etc... Armies rarely collapse because they run out of men. Invariably, they run out of all the stuff it takes to get & keep their men in battle. When that happens, the soldiers self-demobilize and start walking home. That is what a war of attrition is designed to cause - extreme stress on the war effort, causing enough logistical shortfalls in enough places that the system grinds down to a halt, and collapses to a point where it can neither attack nor defend itself, and then the whole organization just atomizes away.
BOTH sides are showing extreme stress. For sure, this war would have been over long ago had Nato not stepped up to support Ukraine with money and munitions. And as long as Nato continues to support Ukraine, odds are that Ukraine can last longer than Russia, because Nato has more money than Russia to continue the war. We drop the hammer of Russia with sanctions, load up Ukraine with weapons we allow them to use without restrictions, and start to mobilize war production industry......Russia can't last much more than a year. They're already at +20% interest rates. Insane recruitment bonuses are starting to lose effectiveness. They're bringing in foreign mercs by the 10's of thousands. Interest rates are going to choke off the private sector, including war production industries.
Is that worth the nickel it'd take to do it? That is a debatable policy question. Trump just wants the war to stop. Not because of the geostrategics of the war itself, but because he sees it as a distraction from the larger problem of dealing with China. He's not wrong on that. Where I disagree with him is on how to get there. The strategy of trying to grind down both sides to force them to the table won't work. Trump has tried it. Not working. I think he's realizing what many of us have said all along - Russia will not stop until they face collapse (or get what they demand).
Time to drop sanctions on Russia. Hard.