BearFan33 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

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I always thought the "grrrrl power" movement was a way to teach our daughters that the were, in fact, equal to men. Girls didnt have to stay home and learn to pick up after others . They could do well in school and have choices. I always thought females had the better lot in life. They could choose to have a career, or get married and share the workload with a husband, if they could just stay home, run the house and take care of babies.

BTW, 3 kids, 7 gks. 2.3 ave. I still beat the 2.1 needed for growth


I think the alternative is to teach your daughter they arent worth as much 0r equal to your sons and to be subservient to men.

What did you teach yours?

---

Then it failed from the get go because it was based on utopian ideals.

Men and Women of course are not equal...even if we are just talking about physical strength and propensity for violence

[The only way to make men and women "equal" is to strip them of the unique qualities that make them men and women]

And good for you for being the 2.1 need for sustainability.

The point is that half the nations are earth are no longer beating or hitting that number and the rest are soon to follow.

And no one has found an answer to the problem....some still deny its even happening

---

Sorry for not being clear. Of course men and women are not the same. But i raised my daughter to believe she had the equal opportunity to make choices. She didnt have to be a homemaker or a housekeeper. but could be an doctor or a lawyer if she chose to be.

---

Well interesting enough....no matter if women chose to be voluntary corporate workers or home makers....fertility keeps crashing

So it does not really matter.

Modern Western and East Asian nations with lots of opportunity for women to spend decades in formal education and working for corporations are seeing their fertility collapse.

And even developing countries that don't provided the same career/education centric approach for women are seeing their fertility crater.

Its wild to watch

No one seems able to escape the collapse

---

blame it on the plastics

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/chemicals-in-plastic-electronics-are-lowering-fertility-in-men-and-women

https://www.salon.com/2021/04/04/plastic-pollution-infertility-extinction/

https://www.earthday.org/plastics-the-kingpin-of-the-fertility-crisis/

---

it's mostly just economics. poor societies with short life expectancies have higher birth rates than wealthy urban societies with long life expectancies. The enormous investment in rearing of children makes sense given that labor is the key to survival. As societies begin to prosper, death rates fall faster than reproductive rates, leading to population boom. As societies continue to develop and industrialize, wealth accumulates and life spans increase = the investment of rearing of child no longer makes sense. birth rates fall. The research on such goes all the way back to Malthus (who made relevant observations and a mixed bag of conclusions). basically, it's a cycle.

the only question is where on that cycle a society might be at any given time.

whiterock said:

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BearFan33 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

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I always thought the "grrrrl power" movement was a way to teach our daughters that the were, in fact, equal to men. Girls didnt have to stay home and learn to pick up after others . They could do well in school and have choices. I always thought females had the better lot in life. They could choose to have a career, or get married and share the workload with a husband, if they could just stay home, run the house and take care of babies.

BTW, 3 kids, 7 gks. 2.3 ave. I still beat the 2.1 needed for growth


I think the alternative is to teach your daughter they arent worth as much 0r equal to your sons and to be subservient to men.

What did you teach yours?

---

Then it failed from the get go because it was based on utopian ideals.

Men and Women of course are not equal...even if we are just talking about physical strength and propensity for violence

[The only way to make men and women "equal" is to strip them of the unique qualities that make them men and women]

And good for you for being the 2.1 need for sustainability.

The point is that half the nations are earth are no longer beating or hitting that number and the rest are soon to follow.

And no one has found an answer to the problem....some still deny its even happening

---

Sorry for not being clear. Of course men and women are not the same. But i raised my daughter to believe she had the equal opportunity to make choices. She didnt have to be a homemaker or a housekeeper. but could be an doctor or a lawyer if she chose to be.

---

Well interesting enough....no matter if women chose to be voluntary corporate workers or home makers....fertility keeps crashing

So it does not really matter.

Modern Western and East Asian nations with lots of opportunity for women to spend decades in formal education and working for corporations are seeing their fertility collapse.

And even developing countries that don't provided the same career/education centric approach for women are seeing their fertility crater.

Its wild to watch

No one seems able to escape the collapse

---

blame it on the plastics

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/chemicals-in-plastic-electronics-are-lowering-fertility-in-men-and-women

https://www.salon.com/2021/04/04/plastic-pollution-infertility-extinction/

https://www.earthday.org/plastics-the-kingpin-of-the-fertility-crisis/

---

it's mostly just economics. poor societies with short life expectancies have higher birth rates than wealthy urban societies with long life expectancies. The enormous investment in rearing of children makes sense given that labor is the key to survival. As societies begin to prosper, death rates fall faster than reproductive rates, leading to population boom. As societies continue to develop and industrialize, wealth accumulates and life spans increase = the investment of rearing of child no longer makes sense. birth rates fall. The research on such goes all the way back to Malthus (who made relevant observations and a mixed bag of conclusions). basically, it's a cycle.

---

Yep

And no one has yet found a way to sustain a society at the "high income/high development/low birth rate" category.

The good affluent society you want....causes the birth collapse that you know is a problem.

Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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BearFan33 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

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I always thought the "grrrrl power" movement was a way to teach our daughters that the were, in fact, equal to men. Girls didnt have to stay home and learn to pick up after others . They could do well in school and have choices. I always thought females had the better lot in life. They could choose to have a career, or get married and share the workload with a husband, if they could just stay home, run the house and take care of babies.

BTW, 3 kids, 7 gks. 2.3 ave. I still beat the 2.1 needed for growth


I think the alternative is to teach your daughter they arent worth as much 0r equal to your sons and to be subservient to men.

What did you teach yours?

---

Then it failed from the get go because it was based on utopian ideals.

Men and Women of course are not equal...even if we are just talking about physical strength and propensity for violence

[The only way to make men and women "equal" is to strip them of the unique qualities that make them men and women]

And good for you for being the 2.1 need for sustainability.

The point is that half the nations are earth are no longer beating or hitting that number and the rest are soon to follow.

And no one has found an answer to the problem....some still deny its even happening

---

Sorry for not being clear. Of course men and women are not the same. But i raised my daughter to believe she had the equal opportunity to make choices. She didnt have to be a homemaker or a housekeeper. but could be an doctor or a lawyer if she chose to be.

---

Well interesting enough....no matter if women chose to be voluntary corporate workers or home makers....fertility keeps crashing

So it does not really matter.

Modern Western and East Asian nations with lots of opportunity for women to spend decades in formal education and working for corporations are seeing their fertility collapse.

And even developing countries that don't provided the same career/education centric approach for women are seeing their fertility crater.

Its wild to watch

No one seems able to escape the collapse

---

blame it on the plastics

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/chemicals-in-plastic-electronics-are-lowering-fertility-in-men-and-women

https://www.salon.com/2021/04/04/plastic-pollution-infertility-extinction/

https://www.earthday.org/plastics-the-kingpin-of-the-fertility-crisis/

---

it's mostly just economics. poor societies with short life expectancies have higher birth rates than wealthy urban societies with long life expectancies. The enormous investment in rearing of children makes sense given that labor is the key to survival. As societies begin to prosper, death rates fall faster than reproductive rates, leading to population boom. As societies continue to develop and industrialize, wealth accumulates and life spans increase = the investment of rearing of child no longer makes sense. birth rates fall. The research on such goes all the way back to Malthus (who made relevant observations and a mixed bag of conclusions). basically, it's a cycle.

---

Yep

And no one has yet found a way to sustain a society at the "high income/high development/low birth rate" category.

The good affluent society you want....causes the birth collapse that you know is a problem.

---

Rome sustained it for centuries. We likely will as well.

BearFan33 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

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Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

---

I always thought the "grrrrl power" movement was a way to teach our daughters that the were, in fact, equal to men. Girls didnt have to stay home and learn to pick up after others . They could do well in school and have choices. I always thought females had the better lot in life. They could choose to have a career, or get married and share the workload with a husband, if they could just stay home, run the house and take care of babies.

BTW, 3 kids, 7 gks. 2.3 ave. I still beat the 2.1 needed for growth


I think the alternative is to teach your daughter they arent worth as much 0r equal to your sons and to be subservient to men.

What did you teach yours?

---

Then it failed from the get go because it was based on utopian ideals.

Men and Women of course are not equal...even if we are just talking about physical strength and propensity for violence

[The only way to make men and women "equal" is to strip them of the unique qualities that make them men and women]

And good for you for being the 2.1 need for sustainability.

The point is that half the nations are earth are no longer beating or hitting that number and the rest are soon to follow.

And no one has found an answer to the problem....some still deny its even happening

---

Sorry for not being clear. Of course men and women are not the same. But i raised my daughter to believe she had the equal opportunity to make choices. She didnt have to be a homemaker or a housekeeper. but could be an doctor or a lawyer if she chose to be.

---

Well interesting enough....no matter if women chose to be voluntary corporate workers or home makers....fertility keeps crashing

So it does not really matter.

Modern Western and East Asian nations with lots of opportunity for women to spend decades in formal education and working for corporations are seeing their fertility collapse.

And even developing countries that don't provided the same career/education centric approach for women are seeing their fertility crater.

Its wild to watch

No one seems able to escape the collapse

---

blame it on the plastics

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/chemicals-in-plastic-electronics-are-lowering-fertility-in-men-and-women

https://www.salon.com/2021/04/04/plastic-pollution-infertility-extinction/

https://www.earthday.org/plastics-the-kingpin-of-the-fertility-crisis/

---

Poll: 1 in 3 Young Adults Do Not Have and Do Not Want Children

"The survey found that 30 percent of Generation Z (people born between 1997 and 2012) and millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) did not have and do not want to have any children. The results come after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced in April that the U.S. birthrate has dropped to an all-time low."

So assuming a TFR of 0.0 for 1/3rd of the population going forward, the other 2/3rds is really going to have to get to work to hit the 2.1 target.

I know a huge number of people in their 60s and 70s with one grandchild at most. Many with zero.

These people had 3-4 kids of their own, and they assumed their kids would do the same. They planned for 10-15 grandkids at this age.

Not for me to judge, but it’s sad to see. pic.twitter.com/MGOsp1LaJ0

— Robert Sterling (@RobertMSterling) November 12, 2024

Assassin said:

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We've lost 60 million children in the US alone since Roe vs Wade. Might that have a bit to do with it?

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Dude!! No problem! We have a southern border. We can just walk 60m full grown laborers into the country. Any time we want.

whiterock said:

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Assassin said:

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We've lost 60 million children in the US alone since Roe vs Wade. Might that have a bit to do with it?

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Dude!! No problem! We have a southern border. We can just walk 60m full grown laborers into the country. Any time we want.

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But we don't want to do that. We want to keep aborting and still make America white again.

Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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Assassin said:

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We've lost 60 million children in the US alone since Roe vs Wade. Might that have a bit to do with it?

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Dude!! No problem! We have a southern border. We can just walk 60m full grown laborers into the country. Any time we want.

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But we don't want to do that. We want to keep aborting and still make America white again.

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Shhhh. The Democrats' dirty little secret will get out.

Population collapse https://t.co/nfxEzjFzSH

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 16, 2024

China is facing major population decline. pic.twitter.com/OSf6i64w5i

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) November 23, 2024

This is your regular reminder that there are 4 million fewer 0-9 aged children in the USA in 2023 than there were in 2013

We are experimenting a demographic collapse, yes even in Texas pic.twitter.com/zF8jAGdCcS

— molson 🧠⚙️ (@Molson_Hart) November 25, 2024

Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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Assassin said:

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We've lost 60 million children in the US alone since Roe vs Wade. Might that have a bit to do with it?

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Dude!! No problem! We have a southern border. We can just walk 60m full grown laborers into the country. Any time we want.

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But we don't want to do that. We want to keep aborting and still make America white again.

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You cannot bring 60 million adult foreigners into America without fundamentally transforming the nature of your country's social compact. We see that happening now. This has nothing to do with what they look like, and everything to do with what they think like, and the culture they bring with them.

Recently, @MoreBirths and I have been discussing with each other the question of "pronatal belief." Basically, he argues that high fertility really depends on all/most people in society strongly believing that it's important to have kids-- not just have high personal desires.

So… pic.twitter.com/ITCBrVVqQq

— Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 (@lymanstoneky) November 25, 2024

Realitybites said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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Assassin said:

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We've lost 60 million children in the US alone since Roe vs Wade. Might that have a bit to do with it?

---

Dude!! No problem! We have a southern border. We can just walk 60m full grown laborers into the country. Any time we want.

---

But we don't want to do that. We want to keep aborting and still make America white again.

---

You cannot bring 60 million adult foreigners into America without fundamentally transforming the nature of your country's social compact. We see that happening now. This has nothing to do with what they look like, and everything to do with what they think like, and the culture they bring with them.

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… especially if they are vehemently hostile to the culture.

How likely are you to be married by 30?

Boomers: ~90%
Zoomers: ~30%

This is civilizational. pic.twitter.com/NkJiEc5nYR

— Balaji (@balajis) November 30, 2024

[The Implications of Demographic Decline:


A woman on X posted about her friend's experience of demographic decline in Japan

Quote:

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I'm in Tokyo speaking to a new friend who lived in Montreal for the past 20 years but is just returning to Japan now for a dream job. I asked her what the demographic collapse feels like from Japan:
"In Tokyo, you hardly feel it at all. Everything is more or less the same. But in the countryside like in Kyushu where my parents live, it's like everything good you've ever valued is being destroyed. Every famous store or ramen shop, gone forever. The countryside now feels alienating."

---

Decline leads to concentration in the metropole. We're actually seeing this play out in the US already. It will also affect churches, as I wrote about]

🚨NEW DATA: A new report from @FamStudies by @grantjbailey and @lymanstoneky shows that voting Republican is correlated with higher fertility rates, and this relationship has been getting steeper over time.

"Essentially, the parties are divided by family." 🧵 pic.twitter.com/4mk2BIjtvT

— Colin Wright (@SwipeWright) December 19, 2024

Also, Democrats are more likely to commit infanticide. It's a cord belief in their neo-pagan religion.

New WSJ spotlights staggering @FamStudies research projecting that 1-in-3 of today's young adults will never marry, a record share: pic.twitter.com/j8UdqqiVsC

— Brad Wilcox (@BradWilcoxIFS) January 2, 2025

A great thread on how the old DDR (East Germany) was able to boost fertility substantially through a combination of pronatal messaging and policy. Unfortunately the gains were lost when the DDR fell in 1989, but lessons are very relevant today. https://t.co/X3Yer6Zq5S

— More Births (@MoreBirths) January 2, 2025

Job security was such that even if a Mother decided to leave a job for taking care of the kids, she was guaranteed a role of equal position when she returned to the work force. This may have been a primary motivator for why women started to have kids again. pic.twitter.com/PddAPMHchJ

— Ælþemplær (@Aelthemplaer) January 2, 2025

Redbrickbear said:

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A great thread on how the old DDR (East Germany) was able to boost fertility substantially through a combination of pronatal messaging and policy. Unfortunately the gains were lost when the DDR fell in 1989, but lessons are very relevant today. https://t.co/X3Yer6Zq5S

— More Births (@MoreBirths) January 2, 2025

Job security was such that even if a Mother decided to leave a job for taking care of the kids, she was guaranteed a role of equal position when she returned to the work force. This may have been a primary motivator for why women started to have kids again. pic.twitter.com/PddAPMHchJ

— Ælþemplær (@Aelthemplaer) January 2, 2025

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and, of course, the Soviet Bloc was not a prosperous place. No wealth accumulation possible.

So garden variety economics is a big part of the explanation - birth rates fall as wealth rises.

whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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A great thread on how the old DDR (East Germany) was able to boost fertility substantially through a combination of pronatal messaging and policy. Unfortunately the gains were lost when the DDR fell in 1989, but lessons are very relevant today. https://t.co/X3Yer6Zq5S

— More Births (@MoreBirths) January 2, 2025

Job security was such that even if a Mother decided to leave a job for taking care of the kids, she was guaranteed a role of equal position when she returned to the work force. This may have been a primary motivator for why women started to have kids again. pic.twitter.com/PddAPMHchJ

— Ælþemplær (@Aelthemplaer) January 2, 2025

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and, of course, the Soviet Bloc was not a prosperous place. No wealth accumulation possible.

So garden variety economics is a big part of the explanation - birth rates fall as wealth rises.

---

Yea

But it is interesting that East Germany had a low birth rate but were able to increase it back up with certain policies

You have to wonder if capitalist countries could use some of those same policies to boost births (but without the dictatorship stuff)

Payments for births, job security for mothers who leave the work force and then return, etc

Redbrickbear said:

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A great thread on how the old DDR (East Germany) was able to boost fertility substantially through a combination of pronatal messaging and policy. Unfortunately the gains were lost when the DDR fell in 1989, but lessons are very relevant today. https://t.co/X3Yer6Zq5S

— More Births (@MoreBirths) January 2, 2025

Job security was such that even if a Mother decided to leave a job for taking care of the kids, she was guaranteed a role of equal position when she returned to the work force. This may have been a primary motivator for why women started to have kids again. pic.twitter.com/PddAPMHchJ

— Ælþemplær (@Aelthemplaer) January 2, 2025

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The DDR achieved a higher birth rate than the US during the Baby Boom era? For most of the period 1940-1980, which includes the next generation after the boomers (Xers), the US birth rate was well over 2%, peaking at near 4%.

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/the-baby-boom-saw-a-sharp-rise-in-the-fertility-rate-in-the-united-states

Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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A great thread on how the old DDR (East Germany) was able to boost fertility substantially through a combination of pronatal messaging and policy. Unfortunately the gains were lost when the DDR fell in 1989, but lessons are very relevant today. https://t.co/X3Yer6Zq5S

— More Births (@MoreBirths) January 2, 2025

Job security was such that even if a Mother decided to leave a job for taking care of the kids, she was guaranteed a role of equal position when she returned to the work force. This may have been a primary motivator for why women started to have kids again. pic.twitter.com/PddAPMHchJ

— Ælþemplær (@Aelthemplaer) January 2, 2025

---

and, of course, the Soviet Bloc was not a prosperous place. No wealth accumulation possible.

So garden variety economics is a big part of the explanation - birth rates fall as wealth rises.

---

Yea

But it is interesting that East Germany had a low birth rate but were able to increase it back up with certain policies

You have to wonder if capitalist countries could use some of those same policies to boost births (but without the dictatorship stuff)

Payments for births, job security for mothers who leave the work force and then return, etc

---

Western countries have had pro-natalist policies in recent years. They will continue to have limited success when the culture still views sex as mainly for recreation instead of procreation and infanticide is still legal & promoted.

historian said:

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The DDR achieved a higher birth rate than the US during the Baby Boom era? For most of the period 1940-1980, which includes the next generation after the boomers (Xers), the US birth rate was well over 2%, peaking at near 4%.

S]

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No the East Germans did not beat the USA in that regard

But they did increase their rate from 1.2 (very low) back to 2.0 (almost positive)

So almost back to replacement rate of 2.1

Not sure anyone other European country was able to accomplish that feat

Of course it all feel apart post 1990 and fell back down

East Germany now has a very low rate (along with the rest of Germany)

Germany's fertility rate fell to 1.35 in 2023, joining nine EU countries, including Spain and Italy, that fell below the UN’s “ultra-low” threshold of 1.4 in 2022.https://t.co/38ZWWFNbyU pic.twitter.com/LJpocmpZuX

— Edward Conard (@EdwardConard) December 30, 2024

Redbrickbear said:

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historian said:

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The DDR achieved a higher birth rate than the US during the Baby Boom era? For most of the period 1940-1980, which includes the next generation after the boomers (Xers), the US birth rate was well over 2%, peaking at near 4%.

S]

---

No the East Germans did not beat the USA in that regard

But they did increase their rate from 1.2 (very low) back to 2.0 (almost positive)

So almost back to replacement rate of 2.1

Not sure anyone other European country was able to accomplish that feat

Of course it all feel apart post 1990 and fell back down

East Germany now has a very low rate (along with the rest of Germany)

Germany's fertility rate fell to 1.35 in 2023, joining nine EU countries, including Spain and Italy, that fell below the UN’s “ultra-low” threshold of 1.4 in 2022.https://t.co/38ZWWFNbyU pic.twitter.com/LJpocmpZuX

— Edward Conard (@EdwardConard) December 30, 2024

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Stats are skewed if the starting point is skewed. Why did the DDR have a low birth rate? It might have something to go with living under a brutal communist dictatorship! Married couples had less incentive to have children: they didn't want to raise them to become slaves to Big Brother.

historian said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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historian said:

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The DDR achieved a higher birth rate than the US during the Baby Boom era? For most of the period 1940-1980, which includes the next generation after the boomers (Xers), the US birth rate was well over 2%, peaking at near 4%.

S]

---

No the East Germans did not beat the USA in that regard

But they did increase their rate from 1.2 (very low) back to 2.0 (almost positive)

So almost back to replacement rate of 2.1

Not sure anyone other European country was able to accomplish that feat

Of course it all feel apart post 1990 and fell back down

East Germany now has a very low rate (along with the rest of Germany)

Germany's fertility rate fell to 1.35 in 2023, joining nine EU countries, including Spain and Italy, that fell below the UN’s “ultra-low” threshold of 1.4 in 2022.https://t.co/38ZWWFNbyU pic.twitter.com/LJpocmpZuX

— Edward Conard (@EdwardConard) December 30, 2024

---

Stats are skewed if the starting point is skewed. Why did the DDR have a low birth rate? It might have something to go with living under a brutal communist dictatorship!

---

That does not seem to matter that much

West Germany (free) and East Germany (unfree) had about the same fertility rate in 1960….and both continued to decline after that.

[Between 1965 through 1975, the DDR birthrate had gone from 2.5 to 1.5.]

[The West German fertility rate significantly declined throughout the 1960s, with a noticeable drop occurring particularly in the mid-to-late part of the decade]


Today South Korea (free) has a lower fertility rate than North Korea (unfree)….though both are still well below replacement rate

South Korea fertility rate: 0.8

North Korea fertility rate. 1.7

Abortion could be a reason for all this.

Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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A great thread on how the old DDR (East Germany) was able to boost fertility substantially through a combination of pronatal messaging and policy. Unfortunately the gains were lost when the DDR fell in 1989, but lessons are very relevant today. https://t.co/X3Yer6Zq5S

— More Births (@MoreBirths) January 2, 2025

Job security was such that even if a Mother decided to leave a job for taking care of the kids, she was guaranteed a role of equal position when she returned to the work force. This may have been a primary motivator for why women started to have kids again. pic.twitter.com/PddAPMHchJ

— Ælþemplær (@Aelthemplaer) January 2, 2025

---

and, of course, the Soviet Bloc was not a prosperous place. No wealth accumulation possible.

So garden variety economics is a big part of the explanation - birth rates fall as wealth rises.

---

Yea

But it is interesting that East Germany had a low birth rate but were able to increase it back up with certain policies

You have to wonder if capitalist countries could use some of those same policies to boost births (but without the dictatorship stuff)

Payments for births, job security for mothers who leave the work force and then return, etc

---

agreed. It's not impossible to craft policy which has positive impact on birth rates. Sadly, it's just easier and cheaper, at least according to GAO rules on budget scores, to let fully grown adults walk across the border. So that's what they've done.