60% of CEOs expect a recession in the next 6 months due to tariffs, CNBC says.

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 28, 2025

boognish_bear said:

---

JUST IN: 🇨🇳🇺🇸 Chinese company Temu known for its cheap prices adds import charges of up to 150% to counter US tariffs. pic.twitter.com/wIwUK2tiCC

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 28, 2025

---

Good. Everything they sell is literal junk no person should buy

boognish_bear said:

---

JUST IN: 🇨🇳🇺🇸 China denies President Xi Jinping called President Trump as he claimed.

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 28, 2025

---

China has several ministers for disinformation, much like our Main Stream Media - ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN. Champions of paid for disinformation

Oldbear83 said:

---

J.R. said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Serious question. How many business people from New York do you know?

This matters because if you pay attention, Trump has done this his whole career.

Bold statements, many designed to make it impossible to know his intentions, leading to negotiations which themselves have layers to keep leaks from allowing opponents to counter the moves.

President Trump has a full desk of issues, if you have forgotten:

We still have millions of illegals living in out country, many with criminal connections or worse;

We have decades of government waste, basically paying obscene money to foreign NGOs and federal agencies with no accountability;

We have a public which has gotten used to being cheated by various levels of government out of most of their money.

We have an Establishment which sees itself as a de facto aristocracy, accountable to no one;

We have a media which is generally nothing more than a Propaganda machine;

We have unelected judges who believe they can control all government policy;

We have a massive federal debt, far beyond easy solution;

And when we finally get a President who is trying to somehow address all of these against tremendous and hostile opposition, he's expected to tell everyone all his details and intentions, so all those people working against him can plan how and where to focus their resources and energy.

To them I say: Drop dead.

And while the TDS-ers here keep missing the fact, I voted for someone else in each of the primary elections. I only lined up behind Trump because the other remaining choice was to excuse or abet evil.

If you cannot understand that, God help you.

---

I know a lot of business people in NY (wall street). and they have zero time for Trump. To a person, the despise him.

---

Funny, I know dozens of New York real estate people who respect his accomplishments and skill

Mine actually exist, by the way, yours may be leftovers from "The Apprentice" who didn't make it to the finale

---

I don't have many RE contacts there. Most of my people are Hedge Funds and PE folks

Adriacus Peratuun said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Adriacus Peratuun said:

---

Laughing at people thinking that words like Fascist continue to have any objective meaning.

---

Laughing right back at those of you that think they don't... Words have meaning.

---

The fact that y'all continue to argue about the applicability of that word proves otherwise.

Infinity applicability equals nil applicability when it comes to labels.

---

A fascist is a fascist. A communist is a communist. You not liking Bidem or Obama does not make them something they are not because it fits your particular attitude du jour.

China's cancellations of US pork shipments are skyrocketing:

China cancelled shipments of ~12,000 metric tons of US pork last week, the most since the 2020 pandemic, when global supply chains were halted.

As a result, overall US pork export sales dropped to their lowest level… pic.twitter.com/U2HgVaCLhp

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 28, 2025

J.R. said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

J.R. said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Serious question. How many business people from New York do you know?

This matters because if you pay attention, Trump has done this his whole career.

Bold statements, many designed to make it impossible to know his intentions, leading to negotiations which themselves have layers to keep leaks from allowing opponents to counter the moves.

President Trump has a full desk of issues, if you have forgotten:

We still have millions of illegals living in out country, many with criminal connections or worse;

We have decades of government waste, basically paying obscene money to foreign NGOs and federal agencies with no accountability;

We have a public which has gotten used to being cheated by various levels of government out of most of their money.

We have an Establishment which sees itself as a de facto aristocracy, accountable to no one;

We have a media which is generally nothing more than a Propaganda machine;

We have unelected judges who believe they can control all government policy;

We have a massive federal debt, far beyond easy solution;

And when we finally get a President who is trying to somehow address all of these against tremendous and hostile opposition, he's expected to tell everyone all his details and intentions, so all those people working against him can plan how and where to focus their resources and energy.

To them I say: Drop dead.

And while the TDS-ers here keep missing the fact, I voted for someone else in each of the primary elections. I only lined up behind Trump because the other remaining choice was to excuse or abet evil.

If you cannot understand that, God help you.

---

I know a lot of business people in NY (wall street). and they have zero time for Trump. To a person, the despise him.

---

Funny, I know dozens of New York real estate people who respect his accomplishments and skill

Mine actually exist, by the way, yours may be leftovers from "The Apprentice" who didn't make it to the finale

---

I don't have many RE contacts there. Most of my people are Hedge Funds and PE folks

---

That Trump does not exist anymore. Trump pre-Atlantic City was a visionary developer. After the Atlantic City debacle he became a TV clown personality, not the visionary RE developer. I admired the developer Trump. Great article on him.

OB you think I hate him, I feel sad every time I see the vindictive clown he has become. He used to have skills and vision. What a waste. He sold out for TV and now he is just bitter and drunk on power.


How Donald Trump helped save New York City

FLBear5630 said:

---

Adriacus Peratuun said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Adriacus Peratuun said:

---

Laughing at people thinking that words like Fascist continue to have any objective meaning.

---

Laughing right back at those of you that think they don't... Words have meaning.

---

The fact that y'all continue to argue about the applicability of that word proves otherwise.

Infinity applicability equals nil applicability when it comes to labels.

---

A fascist is a fascist. A communist is a communist. You not liking Bidem or Obama does not make them something they are not because it fits your particular attitude du jour.

---

using a word to define that exact word?
Go ask Baylor for a refund.

Better stock up on bacon

Adriacus Peratuun said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Adriacus Peratuun said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Adriacus Peratuun said:

---

Laughing at people thinking that words like Fascist continue to have any objective meaning.

---

Laughing right back at those of you that think they don't... Words have meaning.

---

The fact that y'all continue to argue about the applicability of that word proves otherwise.

Infinity applicability equals nil applicability when it comes to labels.

---

A fascist is a fascist. A communist is a communist. You not liking Bidem or Obama does not make them something they are not because it fits your particular attitude du jour.

---

using a word to define that exact word?
Go ask Baylor for a refund.

---

Yeah, you were Regcock...

FLBear, you can keep lying to yourself, but your hate is as obvious as a 3-alarm fire.

The source adds the President wants to give the US Auto Industry a "runway" with their business because of the good faith effort automakers made. #Auto #Tariffs #Prices #Economy

— Edward Lawrence (@EdwardLawrence) April 29, 2025

Oldbear83 said:

---

FLBear, you can keep lying to yourself, but your hate is as obvious as a 3-alarm fire.

---

And? Your point?

The guy has destroyed our economy in 100 days.

FLBear5630 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

FLBear, you can keep lying to yourself, but your hate is as obvious as a 3-alarm fire.

---

And?

The guy has destroyed our economy in 100 days.

---

Really, Clark?

But thanks for proving my point.

Oldbear83 said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

FLBear, you can keep lying to yourself, but your hate is as obvious as a 3-alarm fire.

---

And?

The guy has destroyed our economy in 100 days.

---

Really, Clark?

But thanks for proving my point.

---

What point? That I don't like Donald? That he is destroying what's left of our Nation on his vendetta tour? That he is a disaster so far?

You had to prove that??? Really? Just ask.

FLBear5630 said:

---

Fascist is traditionally a right wing Nationalist political movement. I don't think Biden fits, Democratic Socialist is where I put him.

---

That's the myth started by Stalin. It is no more true today than it was 100 years ago. American Leftists have latched onto it for obvious reasons and it's been repeated many times, even in schools. It's still a lie no matter how many times it is repeated.

By the way, progressivism is closer to fascism than communism al though there really is not a huge amount of difference between the different versions of socialism (communism, fascism, Bolshevism, Maoism, etc), especially from the perspective of their victims. Whether you are tortured and murdered in a Soviet Gulag, a Nazi concentration camp, a Chinese or Cambodian "reeducation camp" doesn't matter. You're still dead by an evil regime.

Adriacus Peratuun said:

---

Laughing at people thinking that words like Fascist continue to have any objective meaning.

---

As John Adams famously said, words do mean things. Since "fascism" is thrown around so recklessly by those who actually are more fascist than the people they are talking about, the term is particularly important and relevant. Facts also matter, including honest definition of words.

Assassin said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

JUST IN: 🇨🇳🇺🇸 China denies President Xi Jinping called President Trump as he claimed.

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 28, 2025

---

China has several ministers for disinformation, much like our Main Stream Media - ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN. Champions of paid for disinformation

---

also known as propagandists

Most of our "mainstream media" act like their degrees are from the Joseph Goebbels School of Journalism. They use his techniques often enough. Sadly, they do that because it often works. Even on these boards there are people who believe the lies from the Left.

FLBear5630 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

FLBear, you can keep lying to yourself, but your hate is as obvious as a 3-alarm fire.

---

And?

The guy has destroyed our economy in 100 days.

---

Really, Clark?

But thanks for proving my point.

---

What point? That I don't like Donald? That he is destroying what's left of our Nation on his vendetta tour? That he is a disaster so far?

You had to prove that??? Really? Just ask.

---

What you proved was your unreasonable paranoia and venomous hatred well beyond reason.

Again, thanks for the proof.

historian said:

---

Assassin said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

JUST IN: 🇨🇳🇺🇸 China denies President Xi Jinping called President Trump as he claimed.

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 28, 2025

---

China has several ministers for disinformation, much like our Main Stream Media - ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN. Champions of paid for disinformation

---

also known as propagandists

Most of our "mainstream media" act like their degrees are from the Joseph Goebbels School of Journalism. They use his techniques often enough. Sadly, they do that because it often works. Even on these boards there are people who believe the lies from the Left.

---

That is such a perversion of reality. Your continual attempts to paint leftists as evil are not only ignorant, they are so ridiculous that nobody is going to e able to take you seriously. You should seek help before the only people that will talk to you are conspiracy extremists.

FLBear5630 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

FLBear, you can keep lying to yourself, but your hate is as obvious as a 3-alarm fire.

---

And?

The guy has destroyed our economy in 100 days.

---

Really, Clark?

But thanks for proving my point.

---

What point? That I don't like Donald? That he is destroying what's left of our Nation on his vendetta tour? That he is a disaster so far?

You had to prove that??? Really? Just ask.

---

Oh, I get it. It's Overreaction Monday. Explains it

Porteroso said:

---

historian said:

---

Assassin said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

JUST IN: 🇨🇳🇺🇸 China denies President Xi Jinping called President Trump as he claimed.

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 28, 2025

---

China has several ministers for disinformation, much like our Main Stream Media - ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN. Champions of paid for disinformation

---

also known as propagandists

Most of our "mainstream media" act like their degrees are from the Joseph Goebbels School of Journalism. They use his techniques often enough. Sadly, they do that because it often works. Even on these boards there are people who believe the lies from the Left.

---

That is such a perversion of reality. Your continual attempts to paint leftists as evil are not only ignorant, they are so ridiculous that nobody is going to e able to take you seriously. You should seek help before the only people that will talk to you are conspiracy extremists.

---

That argument worked a lot better before most people found out Biden deliberately brought millions of illegals into the country, including cartel members;

Before people found out leftists always seem to have some level of violence (as in real injuries and loss of property) when they "protest";

Before people found out leftist judges conspired to protect MS-13 and other vicious criminals;

Before people found out leftists knew that Hunter's laptop was genuine but hid it anyway in mainstream media;

Before people found out leftists were willing to ignore the statute of limitations, create "felonies" out of actions which normally would not even be prosecuted as misdemeanors, would raid private homes at gunpoint where they knew no threat to safety existed;

Before many things, actually.

You may not be evil, but you are friends with many evil people, Porteroso.

Wasn’t the pro-tariff crowd trying to tell us tariffs wouldn’t increase the cost of goods? Sure seems like an admission…https://t.co/vVk6PWZHCJ

— Rand Paul (@RandPaul) April 28, 2025

Senator Rand Paul says he now has the votes needed to block Trump’s tariffs in the Senate and is co-sponsoring a bipartisan resolution to do so.

Although Paul describes himself as a Trump supporter, he says he doesn’t want to live under emergency rule.

He argues that tariffs… pic.twitter.com/8hGCaJ5gNB

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) April 29, 2025

boognish_bear said:

---

Wasn’t the pro-tariff crowd trying to tell us tariffs wouldn’t increase the cost of goods? Sure seems like an admission…https://t.co/vVk6PWZHCJ

— Rand Paul (@RandPaul) April 28, 2025

Senator Rand Paul says he now has the votes needed to block Trump’s tariffs in the Senate and is co-sponsoring a bipartisan resolution to do so.

Although Paul describes himself as a Trump supporter, he says he doesn’t want to live under emergency rule.

He argues that tariffs… pic.twitter.com/8hGCaJ5gNB

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) April 29, 2025

---

Agree with Rand Paul 100 percent. Trump's tariffs could potentially collapse the world economy. Hope Trump gets some common sense religion really soon. If he does not, it may cost him his legacy.

historian said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Fascist is traditionally a right wing Nationalist political movement. I don't think Biden fits, Democratic Socialist is where I put him.

---

That's the myth started by Stalin. It is no more true today than it was 100 years ago. American Leftists have latched onto it for obvious reasons and it's been repeated many times, even in schools. It's still a lie no matter how many times it is repeated.

By the way, progressivism is closer to fascism than communism al though there really is not a huge amount of difference between the different versions of socialism (communism, fascism, Bolshevism, Maoism, etc), especially from the perspective of their victims. Whether you are tortured and murdered in a Soviet Gulag, a Nazi concentration camp, a Chinese or Cambodian "reeducation camp" doesn't matter. You're still dead by an evil regime.

---

Ok, let's leave the right or left out of the equation. If it suits you.

So, Fascism isn't a Nationalist centric political system? Find me one, accepted credible source not some Bannon-centric MAGA crap, that defines Fascism without the Nationalist component.

Remember, I said Biden wasn't a Fascist because he lacked the Nationalist component and was more of Social Democrat. You keep calling the current batch of Democrats Fascist. I don't see ANY Democrat America-first or Nationalist movement. Actually, by your own words they are Globalists, the polar opposite of Nationalist.

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Assassin said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

🇺🇸 US tariff revenue rises 60% to $15 billion in April, a new all-time high. pic.twitter.com/PRQBQOoQ0W

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 24, 2025

---

If Trump can find a way to fully or partially eliminate personal income tax, that would be huge

---

that is the explicit policy - to raise more money from tariffs and less from income taxes.

---

But, that only works if imports remain at current levels. It is a balance. Look at the Deloitte analysis for next five years. Imports are reducing. Government spending as part of economy, reducing. Real business investing, reducing. Consumer spending, reducing. Real GDP, reducing. Unemployment, increasing. CPI, down .5%. (That is a positive).

Does this look like a scenario for less taxes?



Source is Deloitte, this is a reputable source. These guys are not clowns or Mother Jones. This is baseline, there is also a up scenario and down scenario. I thought baseline was best for conversation, keep it bias free (as possible).

---

read that article again. note the word "scenario." (meaning a projection, not current developments).

The economy seems to be slowing slowing, which would be expected. You can't stop the kind of deficit spending we've engaged in the last 5 years and NOT have the economy slow. Trump has already addressed the investment portion. We are now approaching $10T in announced foreign investments. Sure, not all of that will happen in 2025 or even 2026, but we don't need all of it to happen in that timeframe, just enough to offset the reduction in government spending (approx $1T). Should not be a problem, given that the amount we need to hit the books over the next 18 months is a very small percentage of the total.

Consumer spending is not, in fact, declining.....yet (although it likely will do so soon).
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/the-state-of-the-us-consumer
Unemployment is driven by new entrants, not job losses.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/04/economy/us-jobs-report-march-2025/index.html
Fed has reduced growth projections, but is still projecting economic expansion for 2025-2027.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250319.htm

Reduction in CPI is actually a sign of a slowing economy. Lower gas prices? a slowing economy uses less gas. and so on and so on. You will see that same dynamic on trade.....trade deficit will narrow as an economy slows. To the extent a trade deficit is structural (and ours explicitly is), a yawning trade deficit is a leading indicator of coming expansion (businesses stocking up inventory to meet growing demand).

Again.....avoid the temptation to let microeconomic challenges cloud the view of the macroeconomic situation. Trump is making macroeconomic changes. He's changing the landscape, the laws of gravity that dictate the way things will flow. By definition, existing supply chains cannot cope with those changes. THAT IS THE POINT! 70+ years ago, sovereign power chose to engage in globalism as a response to a rising USSR. Because that response was effective, it is no longer useful = it achieved its objective, ergo its costs (trade deficits) are no longer offset by advantages. So sovereign power (belatedly) defined new objectives - decouple from China and bring a greater percentage of supply chains back home.

note that Apple has announced it will move all of its US-oriented iPhone production out of China by 2026, relocating most of it to India. That, my friend, is tariffs at work. Trade policy always serves national security policy. Trump created macroeconomic conditions that will drain China of most of its US-oriented production over the next decade. SOME of that production will come home.
#winning

Porteroso said:

---

historian said:

---

Assassin said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

JUST IN: 🇨🇳🇺🇸 China denies President Xi Jinping called President Trump as he claimed.

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 28, 2025

---

China has several ministers for disinformation, much like our Main Stream Media - ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN. Champions of paid for disinformation

---

also known as propagandists

Most of our "mainstream media" act like their degrees are from the Joseph Goebbels School of Journalism. They use his techniques often enough. Sadly, they do that because it often works. Even on these boards there are people who believe the lies from the Left.

---

That is such a perversion of reality. Your continual attempts to paint leftists as evil are not only ignorant, they are so ridiculous that nobody is going to e able to take you seriously. You should seek help before the only people that will talk to you are conspiracy extremists.

---

I find a supposed educator (Historian/History) teacher does not really understand what a fascist looks like. Mr. Historian throws around the term fascist around like halloween candy is just bizarre and concerning. I would submit Mr. Trump is a fascist and it keeps getting worse.

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Assassin said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

🇺🇸 US tariff revenue rises 60% to $15 billion in April, a new all-time high. pic.twitter.com/PRQBQOoQ0W

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 24, 2025

---

If Trump can find a way to fully or partially eliminate personal income tax, that would be huge

---

that is the explicit policy - to raise more money from tariffs and less from income taxes.

---

But, that only works if imports remain at current levels. It is a balance. Look at the Deloitte analysis for next five years. Imports are reducing. Government spending as part of economy, reducing. Real business investing, reducing. Consumer spending, reducing. Real GDP, reducing. Unemployment, increasing. CPI, down .5%. (That is a positive).

Does this look like a scenario for less taxes?



Source is Deloitte, this is a reputable source. These guys are not clowns or Mother Jones. This is baseline, there is also a up scenario and down scenario. I thought baseline was best for conversation, keep it bias free (as possible).

---

read that article again. note the word "scenario." (meaning a projection, not current developments).

The economy seems to be slowing slowing, which would be expected. You can't stop the kind of deficit spending we've engaged in the last 5 years and NOT have the economy slow. Trump has already addressed the investment portion. We are now approaching $10T in announced foreign investments. Sure, not all of that will happen in 2025 or even 2026, but we don't need all of it to happen in that timeframe, just enough to offset the reduction in government spending (approx $1T). Should not be a problem, given that the amount we need to hit the books over the next 18 months is a very small percentage of the total.

Consumer spending is not, in fact, declining.....yet (although it likely will do so soon).
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/the-state-of-the-us-consumer
Unemployment is driven by new entrants, not job losses.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/04/economy/us-jobs-report-march-2025/index.html
Fed has reduced growth projections, but is still projecting economic expansion for 2025-2027.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250319.htm

Reduction in CPI is actually a sign of a slowing economy. Lower gas prices? a slowing economy uses less gas. and so on and so on. You will see that same dynamic on trade.....trade deficit will narrow as an economy slows. To the extent a trade deficit is structural (and ours explicitly is), a yawning trade deficit is a leading indicator of coming expansion (businesses stocking up inventory to meet growing demand).

Again.....avoid the temptation to let microeconomic challenges cloud the view of the macroeconomic situation. Trump is making macroeconomic changes. He's changing the landscape, the laws of gravity that dictate the way things will flow. By definition, existing supply chains cannot cope with those changes. THAT IS THE POINT! 70+ years ago, sovereign power chose to engage in globalism as a response to a rising USSR. Because that response was effective, it is no longer useful = it achieved its objective, ergo its costs (trade deficits) are no longer offset by advantages. So sovereign power (belatedly) defined new objectives - decouple from China and bring a greater percentage of supply chains back home.

note that Apple has announced it will move all of its US-oriented iPhone production out of China by 2026, relocating most of it to India. That, my friend, is tariffs at work. Trade policy always serves national security policy. Trump created macroeconomic conditions that will drain China of most of its US-oriented production over the next decade. SOME of that production will come home.
#winning

---

Of course it is a forecast, anything other than the past is a forecast. Our whole financial system is based on forecasts and then comparing to actuals.

You do realize that the Macro is made up of he Micro. You talk about "Macro" economics like it is separate from Microeconomics. Micro are the metrics you use to measure Macro policy successes. One does not exist without the other.


Same with Company "announcements". Let's see how much is actually built and how much comes back to the US.

You also seem to be changing the metrics of what "winning" is. Now it is "some"?

Auto Parts Tariffs are about to be relaxed

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-reduce-impact-auto-tariffs-233212117.html

RAHWAY, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Merck (NYSE: MRK), known as MSD outside of the United States and Canada, announced today the start of construction for a $1 billion, 470,000-square-foot state-of-the-art biologics center of excellence in Wilmington, Delaware

https://www.merck.com/news/merck-breaks-ground-on-new-1-billion-biologics-center-of-excellence-in-wilmington-delaware/

Side effect of this tool is we’ll finally be able to figure out what on Amazon is American made and what’s imported https://t.co/CBBpbXz1mD

— Dr. Ben Braddock (@GraduatedBen) April 29, 2025

Wait a minute. Is someone else pointing out that Trumps tariffs are nothing more than a tax on American consumers.?

JUST IN: White House: Amazon, $AMZN, showing tariffs on each product is a hostile and political act

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 29, 2025

whiterock said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

If tariffs are bad; other countries wouldn't be employing them against the United States.

Time to give them a taste of what they have been doing to us for decades.

---

Bingo. Only a dumbass would disagree with you on this.

---

"We are such a beaten and abused victim. The world has been picking on us for decades". Blah..blah....blah. Still kind of hilarious that Trump is playing the "victim" card.

UPS just announced they are cutting 20,000 jobs. I'm sure this is the rest of the world's fault too. No way it could be bad policy.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ups-cut-20-000-jobs-152549940.html

Signed,

Dumbass