boognish_bear said:

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Rogan: UFO file dump could be distraction from Iran war that’s ‘not going very well’ https://t.co/S6lOZr7cGZ

— The Hill (@thehill) May 8, 2026

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Not much of a distraction. Unless you're into post midnight radio and niche social media channels.

EatMoreSalmon said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Rogan: UFO file dump could be distraction from Iran war that’s ‘not going very well’ https://t.co/S6lOZr7cGZ

— The Hill (@thehill) May 8, 2026

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Not much of a distraction. Unless you're into post midnight radio and niche social media channels.

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George Noory, that you?

BearFan33 said:

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Porteroso said:

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Realitybites said:

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CIA Leak: Iran Can Survive Blockade Another 3 to 4 Months, Maybe Longer

Belying the Trump administration's claims that a US blockade on Iran's use of the Strait of Hormuz has the country on the ropes and its oil infrastructure in near-term peril, a confidential CIA analysis says Iran can persevere another three or four months, if not longer. In a second stark contradiction of White House narratives, US intelligence assesses that the bulk of Iran's pre-war missile inventory is still intact. The substance of the CIA analysis was first reported by the Washington Post, which attributed the insights to three current officials and one former one who've seen it.

Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began. -- Washington Post

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Man, what a disaster. Reverting to pre-war conditions is looking like the best possible outcome, and that might be unrealistic, since Iran is still going forward with their taxing scheme.

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I'll admit there is a lack of consistent, credible info coming out of the area. It's hard to know what to trust and what not to. I for sure would not trust leaks. With that said, the administration is claiming:

Iran's air force is destroyed. Iran's "navy" has been reduced to piracy using small boats to harass traffic in the SoH. 3 destroyers went thru and killed everything that shot at them. No damage to our ships. Iran is having a hard time selling any of its oil due to the blockade.

It's entirely possible the administration is embellishing. But it doesn't sound like a disaster. Are our troops coming home in body bags? Has Iran sunk one of our aircraft carriers?

It seems people are finding stories that reinforce their bias, whatever that is.

And don't forget, France is sending their one aircraft carrier to open the SoH. This should all be over soon.

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The post I quoted was American intelligence estimates. That would be the source I would trust most. The reasoning seems sound. We did not destroy al these underground missile manufacturing facilities, but just buried them under some rubble.

Not that my opinion really means much, but I will restate what I have said several times. The only 2 objectives that seem worth war, destruction, and this much money, are the severe degredation of Iran's ballistic missile program, or the removal of their nuclear material.

No need to pay attention to the Trump cheerleaders like Daniel/whiterock. We are getting nowhere on either front.

The reason I don't include their air force or navy, is i dont care. They do not threaten America, or really even Israel, or Europe. Picking their boats off, blowing their runways up, easy. Doesn't affect their nuclear program, ability to lob bombs far away, or tax the Strait.

" The post I quoted was American intelligence estimates. "

Which agency?

Not every IC member has valid data.

boognish_bear said:

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Rogan: UFO file dump could be distraction from Iran war that’s ‘not going very well’ https://t.co/S6lOZr7cGZ

— The Hill (@thehill) May 8, 2026

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We are down to releasing UFO files? Wow, they emptied the cabinet to distract.

But, at least we won.

cowboycwr said:

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boognish_bear said:

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"Is the ceasefire with Iran still on?"@POTUS: "They trifled with us today. We blew 'em away... If there's no ceasefire, you're not going to have to know. You're just gonna have to look at one big glow coming out of Iran — and they better sign their agreement fast." pic.twitter.com/yp74HmwZDl

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 8, 2026

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I thought we had already blown them away? Didn't we? I also thought we were going to destroy the Iranian culture from the face of the earth? Or that we eliminated their military completely? Or any of the other claims about totally destroying them, their military or the nuclear program when we hit it a year ago.

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You're just now figuring this out?

BREAKING: Israel believes a deal with Iran is unlikely and has told the US that any return to war must include strikes on Iran’s entire energy infrastructure within 24 hours, per Israel's Channel 12.

Several Arab countries are also reportedly in support of targeting Iranian…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 9, 2026

JUST IN: Major oil and gas CEOs warn the global energy system will change significantly due to the war with Iran.

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) May 9, 2026

Bloomberg:
“The world has burned through oilinventories at a record speed as the Iran war throttles flows from the Persian Gulf…
The rapidly shrinking stockpiles mean that the risk of even more extreme price spikes and shortages is getting ever-closer, leaving governments and… pic.twitter.com/yM9AbTZ9gD

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) May 9, 2026

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US credit card debt reaches new all-time high of $1.33 trillion.

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) May 9, 2026

U.S. officials say Russia 🇷🇺 is shipping drone components to Iran 🇮🇷 via the Caspian Sea, helping Iran rebuild its offensive abilities after losing roughly 60% of its drone arsenal during recent fighting against American 🇺🇸 and Israeli 🇮🇱 forces.https://t.co/fR9vFGCEVF

— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) May 9, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz is truly closed now.

Never before have there been this many days with zero tanker crossings. See the chart.

For every $1 spent on physical oil/refined products, $83 sits in financial oil derivatives.

The oil market is pricing this completely wrong. https://t.co/h40aXcHPZ5 pic.twitter.com/KXa8O9jiv9

— Karel Mercx (@KarelMercx) May 9, 2026

We won on day 1!! Haven't you heard? Viva el Donaldinho . Gawd, he is a laughing stock in the world. Infuriating to many Americans, Gold Jesus to others. Last I heard Jesus was fairly plain spoken and didn't lie to his people on the daily.

Looks like we are getting close to winning this war again. I think this will be the sixth time we've won war?

Trump: expect to hear from Iran soon on new US peace deal.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) May 9, 2026

JUST IN: Putin says the special military operation in Ukraine is “coming to an end.”

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) May 9, 2026

boognish_bear said:

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JUST IN: Putin says the special military operation in Ukraine is “coming to an end.”

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) May 9, 2026

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There are a couple of different ways to interpret that.

fubar said:

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cowboycwr said:

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boognish_bear said:

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"Is the ceasefire with Iran still on?"@POTUS: "They trifled with us today. We blew 'em away... If there's no ceasefire, you're not going to have to know. You're just gonna have to look at one big glow coming out of Iran — and they better sign their agreement fast." pic.twitter.com/yp74HmwZDl

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 8, 2026

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I thought we had already blown them away? Didn't we? I also thought we were going to destroy the Iranian culture from the face of the earth? Or that we eliminated their military completely? Or any of the other claims about totally destroying them, their military or the nuclear program when we hit it a year ago.

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You're just now figuring this out?

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No if you have been paying attention since day one I questioned this war as we supposedly "totally destroyed" their nuclear program and yet are attacking a year later to "prevent them from getting a weapon"

Really? All these people questioning way back then. Who knew...

FLBear5630 said:

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Really? All these people questioning way back then. Who knew...

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I don't know about "all these people" but I do remember you were against it from day one. I know I was. It was either on this thread or the Trump 100 day one where I pointed out we "totally obliterated" their nuclear program a year ago.

And every post I have had on this thread has been against the war. In support of our troops but against the CinC decision to start the war.

cowboycwr said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Really? All these people questioning way back then. Who knew...

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I don't know about "all these people" but I do remember you were against it from day one. I know I was. It was either on this thread or the Trump 100 day one where I pointed out we "totally obliterated" their nuclear program a year ago.

And every post I have had on this thread has been against the war. In support of our troops but against the CinC decision to start the war.

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I agree, I said it on yours because I remember you were against it, asking the same questions.

This thread and others show why a country or alliance cannot take out a rising risk without risking inside backlash internally. Lots of Americans should never gripe about 1930s France or Britain not taking on Nazi Germany earlier.

1936 Germany moves troops into the Rhineland demilitarized zone. France lets it pass.
1938 Britain and France trade part of Czechoslovakia (over protestations of the Czech president) for "peace in our time." War is avoided for one year.
1939-40 Phony War France half heartedly attacks Germany while Poland is invaded. Even after a year's warning the French aren't ready.

This is what ignoring a coming threat does. In our case there are two rising threats, China and Iran. One is already nuclear armed while the other was working toward it.
That other working toward nuclear arms is ruled by a group with a desire for an apocalypse. That same one has been attacking American interests and western interests for 47 years.
The nuclear armed one has been gaining as a geopolitical foe for even longer. Easing of economic relations over decades did not ease the tension between us. It's been long overdue for correction, but the economic "pain" feared here has prevented appropriate actions. Loud public cries about even short term inflation over long term safety and strength are now present. We are now France in that respect.

Sam Lowry said:

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EatMoreSalmon said:

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This thread and others show why a country or alliance cannot take out a rising risk without risking inside backlash internally. Lots of Americans should never gripe about 1930s France or Britain not taking on Nazi Germany earlier.

1936 Germany moves troops into the Rhineland demilitarized zone. France lets it pass.
1938 Britain and France trade part of Czechoslovakia (over protestations of the Czech president) for "peace in our time." War is avoided for one year.
1939-40 Phony War France half heartedly attacks Germany while Poland is invaded. Even after a year's warning the French aren't ready.

This is what ignoring a coming threat does. In our case there are two rising threats, China and Iran. One is already nuclear armed while the other was working toward it.
That other working toward nuclear arms is ruled by a group with a desire for an apocalypse. That same one has been attacking American interests and western interests for 47 years.
The nuclear armed one has been gaining as a geopolitical foe for even longer. Easing of economic relations over decades did not ease the tension between us. It's been long overdue for correction, but the economic "pain" feared here has prevented appropriate actions. Loud public cries about even short term inflation over long term safety and strength are now present. We are now France in that respect.

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It's more the other way around. We're Germany, not France.

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Thank you, Mr. Lindbergh.

EatMoreSalmon said:

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This thread and others show why a country or alliance cannot take out a rising risk without risking inside backlash internally. Lots of Americans should never gripe about 1930s France or Britain not taking on Nazi Germany earlier.

1936 Germany moves troops into the Rhineland demilitarized zone. France lets it pass.
1938 Britain and France trade part of Czechoslovakia (over protestations of the Czech president) for "peace in our time." War is avoided for one year.
1939-40 Phony War France half heartedly attacks Germany while Poland is invaded. Even after a year's warning the French aren't ready.

This is what ignoring a coming threat does. In our case there are two rising threats, China and Iran. One is already nuclear armed while the other was working toward it.
That other working toward nuclear arms is ruled by a group with a desire for an apocalypse. That same one has been attacking American interests and western interests for 47 years.
The nuclear armed one has been gaining as a geopolitical foe for even longer. Easing of economic relations over decades did not ease the tension between us. It's been long overdue for correction, but the economic "pain" feared here has prevented appropriate actions. Loud public cries about even short term inflation over long term safety and strength are now present. We are now France in that respect.

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Even if one were to buy into your overhyping of the Iranian threat and misguided analogy, at this point there is nothing left to accomplish militarily. And whether one says "we won the war" or not, Iran is in fact not a direct threat to the United States, and will not be for some time even if we ignored them.

But we're past the phase of "short term inflation" and will be broaching energy collapses in some markets in the not too distant future if this continues. Besides, a shattered state of Iran is much more dangerous than anything we have right now. You'd think we'd understand that by now.

So, start a war, bomb them and threaten allies that don't agree. To avoid war.

Going to be interesting to see where sll these timed orders end up

Why Trump did this is beyond reason. This is going to make Iraq look like childs play. The cost benefit for the world is ridiculous.

Q: "Is the war with Iran over?"

Netanyahu: "It's not over because there's still nuclear material."

Q: "How do you envision highly enriched uranium will be removed from Iran?"

Netanyahu: "You go in and take it out…President Trump has said to me, 'I want to go in there.'" pic.twitter.com/Uz4ojdJWYW

— The Bulwark (@BulwarkOnline) May 10, 2026

BREAKING: Iran's President Pezeshkian releases a statement just minutes after Iran sent Pakistani mediators its response to the US' proposal:

"We will never bow our heads before the enemy, and if talk of dialogue or negotiation arises, it does not mean surrender or retreat.…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 10, 2026

These back-to-back tweets in my timeline seems to typify pretty much what we hear every day now

BREAKING: President Trump calls Iran's response to the latest U.S. ceasefire proposal "totally unacceptable" but gives no details. https://t.co/upnnBjwXGH

— The Associated Press (@AP) May 10, 2026

They will be laughing no longer! pic.twitter.com/ptJ9sDDjs9

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 10, 2026

Don't threaten us with a good time

Netanyahu says it is time to end Israel’s reliance on U.S. foreign aid.

— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) May 10, 2026