YepD. C. Bear said:
Yes. Recession, or recovery, is always coming.
D. C. Bear said:
Yes. Recession, or recovery, is always coming.
Almost 75% of the Federal budget goes to transfer payments, benefits, interest on the debt, etc. Gee, wonder why all those yawning deficits? But, you know, Medicare for all and free everything for all of our new neighbors thanks to open borders. I'm sure it will all work out 'cause Warren has a plan for it...HuMcK said:
We are already running trillion dollar deficits right now while the economy is doing relatively well. What I'm worried about is how high that number could go in a recession, and how difficult that will make any of the usual countermeasures to employ. It also really sucks that we never got the >3% annual GDP growth we were promised (I still remember POTUS saying "no reason why we don't go to 4, 5, even 6%") when the tax cut package passed, but we sure did get the yawning deficits that all the experts predicted.
I can tell you right now without even looking it up that your 75% figure is wildly incorrect. For instance, in 2015 "defense" spending accounted for over 55% of the federal budget, and that number has only increased since (a few token spending outlays were cut, but defense spending was significantly increased from previous levels by the current Admin).curtpenn said:Almost 75% of the Federal budget goes to transfer payments, benefits, interest on the debt, etc. Gee, wonder why all those yawning deficits? But, you know, Medicare for all and free everything for all of our new neighbors thanks to open borders. I'm sure it will all work out 'cause Warren has a plan for it...HuMcK said:
We are already running trillion dollar deficits right now while the economy is doing relatively well. What I'm worried about is how high that number could go in a recession, and how difficult that will make any of the usual countermeasures to employ. It also really sucks that we never got the >3% annual GDP growth we were promised (I still remember POTUS saying "no reason why we don't go to 4, 5, even 6%") when the tax cut package passed, but we sure did get the yawning deficits that all the experts predicted.
You should look it up. It may be incorrect, but is not wildly so.HuMcK said:I can tell you right now without even looking it up that your 75% figure is wildly incorrect. For instance, in 2015 "defense" spending accounted for over 55% of the federal budget, and that number has only increased since (a few token spending outlays were cut, but defense spending was significantly increased from previous levels by the current Admin).curtpenn said:Almost 75% of the Federal budget goes to transfer payments, benefits, interest on the debt, etc. Gee, wonder why all those yawning deficits? But, you know, Medicare for all and free everything for all of our new neighbors thanks to open borders. I'm sure it will all work out 'cause Warren has a plan for it...HuMcK said:
We are already running trillion dollar deficits right now while the economy is doing relatively well. What I'm worried about is how high that number could go in a recession, and how difficult that will make any of the usual countermeasures to employ. It also really sucks that we never got the >3% annual GDP growth we were promised (I still remember POTUS saying "no reason why we don't go to 4, 5, even 6%") when the tax cut package passed, but we sure did get the yawning deficits that all the experts predicted.
Try again:HuMcK said:I can tell you right now without even looking it up that your 75% figure is wildly incorrect. For instance, in 2015 "defense" spending accounted for over 55% of the federal budget, and that number has only increased since (a few token spending outlays were cut, but defense spending was significantly increased from previous levels by the current Admin).curtpenn said:Almost 75% of the Federal budget goes to transfer payments, benefits, interest on the debt, etc. Gee, wonder why all those yawning deficits? But, you know, Medicare for all and free everything for all of our new neighbors thanks to open borders. I'm sure it will all work out 'cause Warren has a plan for it...HuMcK said:
We are already running trillion dollar deficits right now while the economy is doing relatively well. What I'm worried about is how high that number could go in a recession, and how difficult that will make any of the usual countermeasures to employ. It also really sucks that we never got the >3% annual GDP growth we were promised (I still remember POTUS saying "no reason why we don't go to 4, 5, even 6%") when the tax cut package passed, but we sure did get the yawning deficits that all the experts predicted.
curtpenn said:Try again:HuMcK said:I can tell you right now without even looking it up that your 75% figure is wildly incorrect. For instance, in 2015 "defense" spending accounted for over 55% of the federal budget, and that number has only increased since (a few token spending outlays were cut, but defense spending was significantly increased from previous levels by the current Admin).curtpenn said:Almost 75% of the Federal budget goes to transfer payments, benefits, interest on the debt, etc. Gee, wonder why all those yawning deficits? But, you know, Medicare for all and free everything for all of our new neighbors thanks to open borders. I'm sure it will all work out 'cause Warren has a plan for it...HuMcK said:
We are already running trillion dollar deficits right now while the economy is doing relatively well. What I'm worried about is how high that number could go in a recession, and how difficult that will make any of the usual countermeasures to employ. It also really sucks that we never got the >3% annual GDP growth we were promised (I still remember POTUS saying "no reason why we don't go to 4, 5, even 6%") when the tax cut package passed, but we sure did get the yawning deficits that all the experts predicted.
https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/policy-basics-where-do-our-federal-tax-dollars-go
What is this "discretionary spending" of which you speak? SMH... You do realize Federal tax receipts are at an all time high? Revenue isn't the problem. Spending is.HuMcK said:curtpenn said:Try again:HuMcK said:I can tell you right now without even looking it up that your 75% figure is wildly incorrect. For instance, in 2015 "defense" spending accounted for over 55% of the federal budget, and that number has only increased since (a few token spending outlays were cut, but defense spending was significantly increased from previous levels by the current Admin).curtpenn said:Almost 75% of the Federal budget goes to transfer payments, benefits, interest on the debt, etc. Gee, wonder why all those yawning deficits? But, you know, Medicare for all and free everything for all of our new neighbors thanks to open borders. I'm sure it will all work out 'cause Warren has a plan for it...HuMcK said:
We are already running trillion dollar deficits right now while the economy is doing relatively well. What I'm worried about is how high that number could go in a recession, and how difficult that will make any of the usual countermeasures to employ. It also really sucks that we never got the >3% annual GDP growth we were promised (I still remember POTUS saying "no reason why we don't go to 4, 5, even 6%") when the tax cut package passed, but we sure did get the yawning deficits that all the experts predicted.
https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/policy-basics-where-do-our-federal-tax-dollars-go
My bad, the figure I recalled was percentage of discretionary spending. My original point still stands though, the tax cuts brought the predicted deficits but not the promised growth. I seem to remember they were supposed to be budget positive, wasn't that how they were sold? It would be interesting to see some kind of projection for what the numbers would look like under the old tax laws, I bet similar growth could have been achieved without wrecking the budget so hard.
You may want to compare the growth of "entitlements" under Obama vs Trump alongside your comparison of budget deficits. Welfare programs are notoriously difficult to repeal and are part of the reason that Trump has approved 2 obscene omnibus spending bills. Can't get rid of the ongoing payments from prior administration along with the need (or want) to increase defense spending back to pre-Obama levels. I'm not saying that Trump is clean in all of this but Obama's increase in welfare spending is a major long-term drag on the budget.HuMcK said:curtpenn said:Try again:HuMcK said:I can tell you right now without even looking it up that your 75% figure is wildly incorrect. For instance, in 2015 "defense" spending accounted for over 55% of the federal budget, and that number has only increased since (a few token spending outlays were cut, but defense spending was significantly increased from previous levels by the current Admin).curtpenn said:Almost 75% of the Federal budget goes to transfer payments, benefits, interest on the debt, etc. Gee, wonder why all those yawning deficits? But, you know, Medicare for all and free everything for all of our new neighbors thanks to open borders. I'm sure it will all work out 'cause Warren has a plan for it...HuMcK said:
We are already running trillion dollar deficits right now while the economy is doing relatively well. What I'm worried about is how high that number could go in a recession, and how difficult that will make any of the usual countermeasures to employ. It also really sucks that we never got the >3% annual GDP growth we were promised (I still remember POTUS saying "no reason why we don't go to 4, 5, even 6%") when the tax cut package passed, but we sure did get the yawning deficits that all the experts predicted.
https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/policy-basics-where-do-our-federal-tax-dollars-go
My bad, the figure I recalled was percentage of discretionary spending. My original point still stands though, the tax cuts brought the predicted deficits but not the promised growth. I seem to remember they were supposed to be budget positive, wasn't that how they were sold? It would be interesting to see some kind of projection for what the numbers would look like under the old tax laws, I bet similar growth could have been achieved without wrecking the budget so hard.
Hmm. The article says the chance of a recession will grow to "greater than 30%" next year.tommie said:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/bank-of-america-raises-chance-of-a-recession-to-1-in-3-in-the-next-12-months.html
Except on this board where you can already see any potential recession is already Obama's fault.J.R. said:
Anyone rooting for a recession is foolish. I certainly don't. I have entirely too much at stake for that non-sense. I am merely pointing out that a recession seems much more likely. I also mentioned as just an aside, that if the market tanks, folks will not put up with the Trumps non-sense.
J.R. said:
Yes, we will go into recession...we always do. They yield curve is close to inverting which most definitely signals a recession. These Tariffs are killing the economy. Trumps seriously blinked yesterday by not following through with "his tariff escalation". Trumps is looking at the stock market and the economy and he's figuring out he done screwed up. Economy goes in the tank, Trumps is done.
Funny, I don't see that. Links to the proof of that accusation, please.PartyBear said:Except on this board where you can already see any potential recession is already Obama's fault.J.R. said:
Anyone rooting for a recession is foolish. I certainly don't. I have entirely too much at stake for that non-sense. I am merely pointing out that a recession seems much more likely. I also mentioned as just an aside, that if the market tanks, folks will not put up with the Trumps non-sense.
J.R. said:
Yes, we will go into recession...we always do. They yield curve is close to inverting which most definitely signals a recession. These Tariffs are killing the economy. Trumps seriously blinked yesterday by not following through with "his tariff escalation". Trumps is looking at the stock market and the economy and he's figuring out he done screwed up. Economy goes in the tank, Trumps is done.
J.R. said:
Yes, we will go into recession...we always do. They yield curve is close to inverting which most definitely signals a recession. These Tariffs are killing the economy. Trumps seriously blinked yesterday by not following through with "his tariff escalation". Trumps is looking at the stock market and the economy and he's figuring out he done screwed up. Economy goes in the tank, Trumps is done.
Oldbear83 said:Hmm. The article says the chance of a recession will grow to "greater than 30%" next year.tommie said:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/bank-of-america-raises-chance-of-a-recession-to-1-in-3-in-the-next-12-months.html
I looked up the Fed's numbers, and since 1973 a recession occurs when the average projection of one is above 74%
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/predicting-recession-probabilities-using-the-slope-of-the-yield-curve-20180301.htm
While a chance as low as 36% (in 2000Q1) projected a recession a year out on one occasion, in five quarters since 1999Q3 there were >30% chances of a recession which did not prove true.
xiledinok said:J.R. said:
Yes, we will go into recession...we always do. They yield curve is close to inverting which most definitely signals a recession. These Tariffs are killing the economy. Trumps seriously blinked yesterday by not following through with "his tariff escalation". Trumps is looking at the stock market and the economy and he's figuring out he done screwed up. Economy goes in the tank, Trumps is done.
It's going there. Get gold!
Trumps is in absolute panic mode. He took some ridiculous shots at the "independent FED" today via Twatter. He doesn't seem to understand that he is partly responsible for this because of his Tariff War. The business community is in the process of turning on him and his lack of economic knowledge. Farmers are getting crushed. Anyone need any Soybeans? Just ask Cisco how it working for them. Sales in China down 25% per their earnings call today. Furthermore, since Trumps blinked yesterday, why in the hell would Ghina want to give Trumps anything? Nah, they will just wait him out till 2020.PartyBear said:J.R. said:
Yes, we will go into recession...we always do. They yield curve is close to inverting which most definitely signals a recession. These Tariffs are killing the economy. Trumps seriously blinked yesterday by not following through with "his tariff escalation". Trumps is looking at the stock market and the economy and he's figuring out he done screwed up. Economy goes in the tank, Trumps is done.
Trump did cave yesterday. However China did not respond in kind with their own "nevermind forget what we said last week". To my knowledge they have not said ok we will be your biggest ag customer again. Trump started a trade war then backed off but the attacked country says fine call it off on your end we will still wage the war against you that you started.
Obviously, you don't pay attention or have no sense of humor.....or bothOldbear83 said:
There is no country named 'Ghina'.
The rest of the post is not much better than malicious desperation.
I have a great sense of humor, and obviously I pay better attention to details than do you.J.R. said:Obviously, you don't pay attention or have no sense of humor.....or bothOldbear83 said:
There is no country named 'Ghina'.
The rest of the post is not much better than malicious desperation.
Oldbear83 said:
Nice try, Fredo Jr.
Hey, the Cuomo's are a powerful rich family. I thought you'd enjoy the association.codyorr said:Oldbear83 said:
Nice try, Fredo Jr.
Does this mean you've moved on from calling people "son" when you don't like what they post?
P.S. Normally it takes TWO posts to get you to sink to the level of name-calling. You're slipping today, Oldbear!