Hong Kong and Shanghai Disney Resorts have been shut down indefinitely.

PartyBear said:

---

Hong Kong and Shanghai Disney Resorts have been shut down indefinitely.

---

Any chance on Orlando?

Oldbear83 said:

---

BaylorBJM said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

BaylorBJM said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

BaylorBJM said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Hmmmm.

Trust the doctors who spent their careers studying and fighting viruses, or trust a media known to make up stories in the interest of hype and ratings.

Thanks, I will stick with the CDC, Lancet, and the people whose interest is based on finding solutions.

But just to respond, yes there are 79k COVID-19 cases. For context, there are also between three and five million cases of influenza each year, causing between 250 and 500 thousand deaths.


https://www.medscape.com/answers/219557-3459/what-is-the-global-incidence-of-influenza


The COVID-19 outbreak is worth paying attention to, but there are a lot of bad people selling hysteria well out of proportion.

And yes, I am biased. My wife is in Hong Kong right now. Guess what? The city is doing fine, taking reasonable precautions but not going stupid like CNN.

---

So, um, now the CDC has commented on the matter.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cdc-warns-it-expects-coronavirus-to-spread-in-u-s-11582653829

---

Yes they have. Did you pay attention to the facts in that release, or did you just react emotionally?

---

I did. Did you? Just wondering your thoughts as a lot of it seems to run counter to what you were suggesting in previous posts.

---

It does not. For one thing, your link was to a media site, not the CDC itself.

Second, I already explained the geographical spread in an earlier post, along with the declining rate of growth.

---

Yes, of course its a media piece. Nevertheless, here's the official statement from the CDC as I, and I'm sure, you too, have listened to: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/a0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html

I agree with a lot of what you've posted (especially as it relates to the influenza,) and much of this relates to "scare of the day" bias. Both true.

However, a lot of what you've posted is now being contradicted by the CDC. And that's okay. Things change. And with this particular situation, things appear to be changing rapidly. But a lot of your non-expert points above are now being directly contradicted by the CDC -the very group you said you'd choose to believe above all others.

---

First, I disagree about "contradiction". As you said, new information provides broader information and confirmation/refutation of prior claims.

The disease, according to both prior and current CDC statements, is transmitted person-to-person, as is the case with most viruses.

The CDC is warning that there will be "community spread", which in simple language means that the disease is being spread at unknown but discernible rates. The first doctor making statements repeated that mitigation and prophylaxis are both available and effective based on documented results.

The new virus will be effectively addressed in much the same way as any flu outbreak is addressed.

This in no way "contradicts" anything I posted earlier. And while I may not be an "expert", I damn well have been paying attention to everything released on the matter, and simply paying attention qualifies any literate person to make informed decisions.

Second, while I respect the CDC, they are one of several sources I use. A number of medical journals post openly, most notably Lancet and JAMA.

Finally, if you stayed on through the Q&A session, you would have heard the doctors note that scientific discussions are often treated superficially by the media. That remains a problem rather than part of the solution.


Doubling down. Gotcha.

---

Just the facts, ma'am.

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue. Will this be as bad as the media are making it out to be? Probably not. It doesn't seem to have a mortality rate any higher than the normal flu, so it's a safe bet that within a matter of years, most of us will have had it and it will be something we talk about having had occurred and scared people and nothing more.

Bearitto said:

---

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue. Will this be as bad as the media are making it out to be? Probably not. It doesn't seem to have a mortality rate any higher than the normal flu, so it's a safe bet that within a matter of years, most of us will have had it and it will be something we talk about having had occurred and scared people and nothing more.

---

The mortality rate is 20-25x normal flu

trey3216 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue. Will this be as bad as the media are making it out to be? Probably not. It doesn't seem to have a mortality rate any higher than the normal flu, so it's a safe bet that within a matter of years, most of us will have had it and it will be something we talk about having had occurred and scared people and nothing more.

---

The mortality rate is 20-25x normal flu

---

Source? Not trying to argue, BTW. Just haven't seen those numbers.

The White House is rounding up $2.5 billion for corona. Normal flu? Doubt it.

There is an article from ABC News yesterday with some statistics, not sure how accurate source is: the mortality rate for the seasonal flu is 0.1%. The coronavirus has had a mortality rate in China from 0.7 % to 7%, depending on the region. There is not enough data to come up with a worldwide rate.

I think because 1) it appears to spread so easily from person to person, 2) and there is uncertainty as to mortality rate and treatment, countries should be overly cautious.

trey3216 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue. Will this be as bad as the media are making it out to be? Probably not. It doesn't seem to have a mortality rate any higher than the normal flu, so it's a safe bet that within a matter of years, most of us will have had it and it will be something we talk about having had occurred and scared people and nothing more.

---

The mortality rate is 20-25x normal flu

---

Source?

---

Mathematics. The mortality rate of Covid-19 is hovering between 2-2.5%. The mortality rate for common flu is well documented at .1%

Not to mention this Coronavirus is putting about 20% of patients in ICU for 3 weeks with full intubation. That would overwhelm our system

---

Overwhelming our system is a Chinese goal

Strain was found first in China, coincidence?

They would kill to have Trump lose but he'll be fine as it'll be gone by May to June when it warms

Incidentally the numbers I got seem higher too!? 2700 deaths of 81,000 cases is 3.3% mortality rate. Am I wrong?

Florda_mike said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue. Will this be as bad as the media are making it out to be? Probably not. It doesn't seem to have a mortality rate any higher than the normal flu, so it's a safe bet that within a matter of years, most of us will have had it and it will be something we talk about having had occurred and scared people and nothing more.

---

The mortality rate is 20-25x normal flu

---

Source?

---

Mathematics. The mortality rate of Covid-19 is hovering between 2-2.5%. The mortality rate for common flu is well documented at .1%

Not to mention this Coronavirus is putting about 20% of patients in ICU for 3 weeks with full intubation. That would overwhelm our system

---

Overwhelming our system is a Chinese goal

Strain was found first in China, coincidence?

They would kill to have Trump lose but he'll be fine as it'll be gone by May to June when it warms

Incidentally the numbers I got seem higher too!? 2700 deaths of 81,000 cases is 3.3% mortality rate. Am I wrong?

---

That is correct. But some of those numbers are skewed due to reporting issues (Iran reporting mortality rate of almost 20% because they're not testing enough, etc)

Yeah

I'm hearing this was created in a lab just 3 miles from the market the Chinese government is saying virus came from

Has anyone heard reports of suspicions Chinese government possibly created this?

Surely MSM would report such?

trey3216 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue. Will this be as bad as the media are making it out to be? Probably not. It doesn't seem to have a mortality rate any higher than the normal flu, so it's a safe bet that within a matter of years, most of us will have had it and it will be something we talk about having had occurred and scared people and nothing more.

---

The mortality rate is 20-25x normal flu

---

Source?

---

Mathematics. The mortality rate of Covid-19 is hovering between 2-2.5%. The mortality rate for common flu is well documented at .1%

Not to mention this Coronavirus is putting about 20% of patients in ICU for 3 weeks with full intubation. That would overwhelm our system

---

OK. I went out of my way to not be a di*k to you. I wasn't questioning your math skills. I was asking for the source for the data you used to come up with that estimate.

Again, source? And this time, I mean the definitive source for the mortality rates for the standard flu in china vs the COVID-19 flu in China, so that we are comparing apples to apples.

Thanks. I'll wait.

Thanks

Bearitto said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue. Will this be as bad as the media are making it out to be? Probably not. It doesn't seem to have a mortality rate any higher than the normal flu, so it's a safe bet that within a matter of years, most of us will have had it and it will be something we talk about having had occurred and scared people and nothing more.

---

The mortality rate is 20-25x normal flu

---

Source?

---

Mathematics. The mortality rate of Covid-19 is hovering between 2-2.5%. The mortality rate for common flu is well documented at .1%

Not to mention this Coronavirus is putting about 20% of patients in ICU for 3 weeks with full intubation. That would overwhelm our system

---

OK. I went out of my way to not be a di*k to you. I wasn't questioning your math skills. I was asking for the source for the data you used to come up with that estimate.

Again, source? And this time, I mean the definitive source for the mortality rates for the standard flu in china vs the COVID-19 flu in China, so that we are comparing apples to apples.

Thanks. I'll wait.

Thanks

---

I'm not at my desk yet, so I'll get you some
Links as soon as I'm there. Wasn't trying to be a jackass to you either, just saying the information is readily available.

This is a good one for seasonal flu, the Coronavirus I'm just taking the announced deaths divided by announced cases.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Bearitto said:

---

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue.

---

How can that be? OldBear said this is still a contained virus.

trey3216 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue. Will this be as bad as the media are making it out to be? Probably not. It doesn't seem to have a mortality rate any higher than the normal flu, so it's a safe bet that within a matter of years, most of us will have had it and it will be something we talk about having had occurred and scared people and nothing more.

---

The mortality rate is 20-25x normal flu

---

False.

For comparison, just in the United States, 16,000 Americans have died and 280,00 hospitalized from the "normal" flu

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Worldwide, COVID-19 has killed 2,770 with 81,279 known cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The mortality rate for COVID-19 is an estimated 2.3% for those infected.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

The mortality rate for influenza varies from year to year and according to demographic vectors. The average mortality rate of influenza pneumonia is between 10% and 20%.

https://www.medscape.com/answers/300455-107816/what-is-the-mortality-and-morbidity-of-influenza-pneumonia

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/covid-19-highly-contagious-but-less-fatal-than-other-viruses/articleshow/74251393.cms


The real risk of COVID-19 appears to be its unknown degree of contagion. The common influenza tends to infect about 4-8% of the population exposed to it, which is largely mitigated by vaccination. COVID-19 remains largely unknown in terms of infection, largely due to poor documentation by officials in Hubei province, which allowed patients infected to travel around the globe before the outbreak was reported. Also, countries like Italy have ignored the lead of Japanese, Thai and American medical authorities in preparing for containment through quarantine and PPE efforts, and so the disease is growing geographically even as it slows growth in overall numbers.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30134-1/fulltext

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200224-sitrep-35-covid-19.pdf

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/covid-19-highly-contagious-but-less-fatal-than-other-viruses/articleshow/74251393.cms


In summary, what is known about COVID-19 is that it behaves in a similar manner to past viruses, and so common prophylaxis is effective in preventing infection. Without such measure, COVID-19 appears to be significantly more contagious than influenza, but is much less fatal than influenza, H1N1, or SARS.


It should also be kept in mind, that a number of COVID-19 vaccine candidates have already been produced and are beginning clinical trials.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins

https://medcitynews.com/2020/02/moderna-ships-first-batch-of-covid-19-vaccine-phase-i-trial-study-page-posted-on-clinicaltrials-gov/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/modernas-stock-rises-as-it-ships-the-first-batch-of-its-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-2020-02-25

https://globalbiodefense.com/2020/02/23/university-of-queensland-covid-19-vaccine-goes-into-test-production/



Also, in the CDC briefing yesterday, Dr. Nancy Messonnier observed that many viruses die out in warmer climates, which is one reason we talk about a 'flu season' in the first place, COVID-19 cases may well die out as spring arrives.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/what-happens-to-coronavirus-covid-19-in-warmer-spring-temperatures/

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/a0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html

BaylorBJM said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue.

---

How can that be? OldBear said this is still a contained virus.

---

** sigh **

I never said COVID-19 was held to one country. News flash, you cannot hermetically seal a country or region from a virus.

What I said was that a lot of the media hysteria was, and is, complete BS.

Oldbear83 said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue. Will this be as bad as the media are making it out to be? Probably not. It doesn't seem to have a mortality rate any higher than the normal flu, so it's a safe bet that within a matter of years, most of us will have had it and it will be something we talk about having had occurred and scared people and nothing more.

---

The mortality rate is 20-25x normal flu

---

False.

For comparison, just in the United States, 16,000 Americans have died and 280,00 hospitalized from the "normal" flu

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Worldwide, COVID-19 has killed 2,770 with 81,279 known cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The mortality rate for COVID-19 is an estimated 2.3% for those infected.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

The mortality rate for influenza varies from year to year and according to demographic vectors. The average mortality rate of influenza pneumonia is between 10% and 20%.

https://www.medscape.com/answers/300455-107816/what-is-the-mortality-and-morbidity-of-influenza-pneumonia

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/covid-19-highly-contagious-but-less-fatal-than-other-viruses/articleshow/74251393.cms


The real risk of COVID-19 appears to be its unknown degree of contagion. The common influenza tends to infect about 4-8% of the population exposed to it, which is largely mitigated by vaccination. COVID-19 remains largely unknown in terms of infection, largely due to poor documentation by officials in Hubei province, which allowed patients infected to travel around the globe before the outbreak was reported. Also, countries like Italy have ignored the lead of Japanese, Thai and American medical authorities in preparing for containment through quarantine and PPE efforts, and so the disease is growing geographically even as it slows growth in overall numbers.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30134-1/fulltext

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200224-sitrep-35-covid-19.pdf

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/covid-19-highly-contagious-but-less-fatal-than-other-viruses/articleshow/74251393.cms


In summary, what is known about COVID-19 is that it behaves in a similar manner to past viruses, and so common prophylaxis is effective in preventing infection. Without such measure, COVID-19 appears to be significantly more contagious than influenza, but is much less fatal than influenza, H1N1, or SARS.


It should also be kept in mind, that a number of COVID-19 vaccine candidates have already been produced and are beginning clinical trials.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins

https://medcitynews.com/2020/02/moderna-ships-first-batch-of-covid-19-vaccine-phase-i-trial-study-page-posted-on-clinicaltrials-gov/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/modernas-stock-rises-as-it-ships-the-first-batch-of-its-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-2020-02-25

https://globalbiodefense.com/2020/02/23/university-of-queensland-covid-19-vaccine-goes-into-test-production/



Also, in the CDC briefing yesterday, Dr. Nancy Messonnier observed that many viruses die out in warmer climates, which is one reason we talk about a 'flu season' in the first place, COVID-19 cases may well die out as spring arrives.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/what-happens-to-coronavirus-covid-19-in-warmer-spring-temperatures/

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/a0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html

---

I didn't add pneumonia to the influenza numbers, because we were talking about influenza vs COVID. I imagine adding pneumonia to COVID numbers is going to spike that up to a pretty high level as well.

By the way, for those obsessed with claiming COVID-19 is somehow the worst threat we have ever seen from viruses, a few reminders from past outbreaks:

Marburg Virus: Average mortality rate 50%

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/marburg-virus-disease

Ebola Virus: Average mortality rate 50%

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ebola-virus-disease

Rabies: 80%+ mortality rate if not treated within 2 days of infection

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2015/p0928-rabies.html

Smallpox: Average mortality rate 30%

https://www.who.int/biologicals/vaccines/smallpox/en/

Hantavirus: Average mortality rate 36%

https://wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/conditions/hantavirus-pulmonary-syndrome/case-definition/2015/

Dengue: Average Mortality rate of 15% if not treated in first 24 hours

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/dengue-and-severe-dengue

Rotavirus: Average mortality rate of 22%

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6330491/

Just a little perspective.

trey3216 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

I didn't add pneumonia to the influenza numbers, because we were talking about influenza vs COVID. I imagine adding pneumonia to COVID numbers is going to spike that up to a pretty high level as well.

---

---

COVID-19's symptoms manifest as pneumonia. There is no COVID-19 without that aspect.

Oldbear83 said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue. Will this be as bad as the media are making it out to be? Probably not. It doesn't seem to have a mortality rate any higher than the normal flu, so it's a safe bet that within a matter of years, most of us will have had it and it will be something we talk about having had occurred and scared people and nothing more.

---

The mortality rate is 20-25x normal flu

---

False.

For comparison, just in the United States, 16,000 Americans have died and 280,00 hospitalized from the "normal" flu

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Worldwide, COVID-19 has killed 2,770 with 81,279 known cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The mortality rate for COVID-19 is an estimated 2.3% for those infected.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

The mortality rate for influenza varies from year to year and according to demographic vectors. The average mortality rate of influenza pneumonia is between 10% and 20%.

https://www.medscape.com/answers/300455-107816/what-is-the-mortality-and-morbidity-of-influenza-pneumonia

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/covid-19-highly-contagious-but-less-fatal-than-other-viruses/articleshow/74251393.cms


The real risk of COVID-19 appears to be its unknown degree of contagion. The common influenza tends to infect about 4-8% of the population exposed to it, which is largely mitigated by vaccination. COVID-19 remains largely unknown in terms of infection, largely due to poor documentation by officials in Hubei province, which allowed patients infected to travel around the globe before the outbreak was reported. Also, countries like Italy have ignored the lead of Japanese, Thai and American medical authorities in preparing for containment through quarantine and PPE efforts, and so the disease is growing geographically even as it slows growth in overall numbers.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30134-1/fulltext

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200224-sitrep-35-covid-19.pdf

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/covid-19-highly-contagious-but-less-fatal-than-other-viruses/articleshow/74251393.cms


In summary, what is known about COVID-19 is that it behaves in a similar manner to past viruses, and so common prophylaxis is effective in preventing infection. Without such measure, COVID-19 appears to be significantly more contagious than influenza, but is much less fatal than influenza, H1N1, or SARS.


It should also be kept in mind, that a number of COVID-19 vaccine candidates have already been produced and are beginning clinical trials.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins

https://medcitynews.com/2020/02/moderna-ships-first-batch-of-covid-19-vaccine-phase-i-trial-study-page-posted-on-clinicaltrials-gov/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/modernas-stock-rises-as-it-ships-the-first-batch-of-its-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-2020-02-25

https://globalbiodefense.com/2020/02/23/university-of-queensland-covid-19-vaccine-goes-into-test-production/



Also, in the CDC briefing yesterday, Dr. Nancy Messonnier observed that many viruses die out in warmer climates, which is one reason we talk about a 'flu season' in the first place, COVID-19 cases may well die out as spring arrives.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/what-happens-to-coronavirus-covid-19-in-warmer-spring-temperatures/

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/a0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html

---

FALSE

Those 16,000 deaths are out of 29 million cases, which is a .055% mortality rate this year.

trey3216 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue. Will this be as bad as the media are making it out to be? Probably not. It doesn't seem to have a mortality rate any higher than the normal flu, so it's a safe bet that within a matter of years, most of us will have had it and it will be something we talk about having had occurred and scared people and nothing more.

---

The mortality rate is 20-25x normal flu

---

False.

For comparison, just in the United States, 16,000 Americans have died and 280,00 hospitalized from the "normal" flu

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Worldwide, COVID-19 has killed 2,770 with 81,279 known cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The mortality rate for COVID-19 is an estimated 2.3% for those infected.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

The mortality rate for influenza varies from year to year and according to demographic vectors. The average mortality rate of influenza pneumonia is between 10% and 20%.

https://www.medscape.com/answers/300455-107816/what-is-the-mortality-and-morbidity-of-influenza-pneumonia

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/covid-19-highly-contagious-but-less-fatal-than-other-viruses/articleshow/74251393.cms


The real risk of COVID-19 appears to be its unknown degree of contagion. The common influenza tends to infect about 4-8% of the population exposed to it, which is largely mitigated by vaccination. COVID-19 remains largely unknown in terms of infection, largely due to poor documentation by officials in Hubei province, which allowed patients infected to travel around the globe before the outbreak was reported. Also, countries like Italy have ignored the lead of Japanese, Thai and American medical authorities in preparing for containment through quarantine and PPE efforts, and so the disease is growing geographically even as it slows growth in overall numbers.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30134-1/fulltext

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200224-sitrep-35-covid-19.pdf

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/covid-19-highly-contagious-but-less-fatal-than-other-viruses/articleshow/74251393.cms


In summary, what is known about COVID-19 is that it behaves in a similar manner to past viruses, and so common prophylaxis is effective in preventing infection. Without such measure, COVID-19 appears to be significantly more contagious than influenza, but is much less fatal than influenza, H1N1, or SARS.


It should also be kept in mind, that a number of COVID-19 vaccine candidates have already been produced and are beginning clinical trials.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins

https://medcitynews.com/2020/02/moderna-ships-first-batch-of-covid-19-vaccine-phase-i-trial-study-page-posted-on-clinicaltrials-gov/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/modernas-stock-rises-as-it-ships-the-first-batch-of-its-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-2020-02-25

https://globalbiodefense.com/2020/02/23/university-of-queensland-covid-19-vaccine-goes-into-test-production/



Also, in the CDC briefing yesterday, Dr. Nancy Messonnier observed that many viruses die out in warmer climates, which is one reason we talk about a 'flu season' in the first place, COVID-19 cases may well die out as spring arrives.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/what-happens-to-coronavirus-covid-19-in-warmer-spring-temperatures/

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/a0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html

---

FALSE

Those 16,000 deaths are out of 29 million cases, which is a .055% mortality rate this year.

---

I showed my source and logic. You might try to do as much.

Further, consider this from the American Journal of Public Heath, published by the National Institute of Heath:

"The CDC4 and others26 have argued that recorded influenza deaths underrepresent influenza's true impact on mortality"

"In the United States, influenza is a seasonal illness, and virus circulation peaks at unpredictable times. Elevated mortality thus can occur across calendar years"

"The severity and clinical expression of disease depend on a multiplicity of additional factors, such as the novelty of the pathogen to the host, age, cocirculating pathogens, living conditions, physiological status, and access to treatment."










https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2374803/

trey3216 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue. Will this be as bad as the media are making it out to be? Probably not. It doesn't seem to have a mortality rate any higher than the normal flu, so it's a safe bet that within a matter of years, most of us will have had it and it will be something we talk about having had occurred and scared people and nothing more.

---

The mortality rate is 20-25x normal flu

---

False.

For comparison, just in the United States, 16,000 Americans have died and 280,00 hospitalized from the "normal" flu

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Worldwide, COVID-19 has killed 2,770 with 81,279 known cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The mortality rate for COVID-19 is an estimated 2.3% for those infected.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

The mortality rate for influenza varies from year to year and according to demographic vectors. The average mortality rate of influenza pneumonia is between 10% and 20%.

https://www.medscape.com/answers/300455-107816/what-is-the-mortality-and-morbidity-of-influenza-pneumonia

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/covid-19-highly-contagious-but-less-fatal-than-other-viruses/articleshow/74251393.cms


The real risk of COVID-19 appears to be its unknown degree of contagion. The common influenza tends to infect about 4-8% of the population exposed to it, which is largely mitigated by vaccination. COVID-19 remains largely unknown in terms of infection, largely due to poor documentation by officials in Hubei province, which allowed patients infected to travel around the globe before the outbreak was reported. Also, countries like Italy have ignored the lead of Japanese, Thai and American medical authorities in preparing for containment through quarantine and PPE efforts, and so the disease is growing geographically even as it slows growth in overall numbers.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30134-1/fulltext

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200224-sitrep-35-covid-19.pdf

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/covid-19-highly-contagious-but-less-fatal-than-other-viruses/articleshow/74251393.cms


In summary, what is known about COVID-19 is that it behaves in a similar manner to past viruses, and so common prophylaxis is effective in preventing infection. Without such measure, COVID-19 appears to be significantly more contagious than influenza, but is much less fatal than influenza, H1N1, or SARS.


It should also be kept in mind, that a number of COVID-19 vaccine candidates have already been produced and are beginning clinical trials.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins

https://medcitynews.com/2020/02/moderna-ships-first-batch-of-covid-19-vaccine-phase-i-trial-study-page-posted-on-clinicaltrials-gov/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/modernas-stock-rises-as-it-ships-the-first-batch-of-its-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-2020-02-25

https://globalbiodefense.com/2020/02/23/university-of-queensland-covid-19-vaccine-goes-into-test-production/



Also, in the CDC briefing yesterday, Dr. Nancy Messonnier observed that many viruses die out in warmer climates, which is one reason we talk about a 'flu season' in the first place, COVID-19 cases may well die out as spring arrives.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/what-happens-to-coronavirus-covid-19-in-warmer-spring-temperatures/

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/a0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html

---

FALSE

Those 16,000 deaths are out of 29 million cases, which is a .055% mortality rate this year.

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue. Will this be as bad as the media are making it out to be? Probably not. It doesn't seem to have a mortality rate any higher than the normal flu, so it's a safe bet that within a matter of years, most of us will have had it and it will be something we talk about having had occurred and scared people and nothing more.

---

The mortality rate is 20-25x normal flu

---

False.

For comparison, just in the United States, 16,000 Americans have died and 280,00 hospitalized from the "normal" flu

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Worldwide, COVID-19 has killed 2,770 with 81,279 known cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The mortality rate for COVID-19 is an estimated 2.3% for those infected.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

The mortality rate for influenza varies from year to year and according to demographic vectors. The average mortality rate of influenza pneumonia is between 10% and 20%.

https://www.medscape.com/answers/300455-107816/what-is-the-mortality-and-morbidity-of-influenza-pneumonia

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/covid-19-highly-contagious-but-less-fatal-than-other-viruses/articleshow/74251393.cms


The real risk of COVID-19 appears to be its unknown degree of contagion. The common influenza tends to infect about 4-8% of the population exposed to it, which is largely mitigated by vaccination. COVID-19 remains largely unknown in terms of infection, largely due to poor documentation by officials in Hubei province, which allowed patients infected to travel around the globe before the outbreak was reported. Also, countries like Italy have ignored the lead of Japanese, Thai and American medical authorities in preparing for containment through quarantine and PPE efforts, and so the disease is growing geographically even as it slows growth in overall numbers.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30134-1/fulltext

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200224-sitrep-35-covid-19.pdf

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/covid-19-highly-contagious-but-less-fatal-than-other-viruses/articleshow/74251393.cms


In summary, what is known about COVID-19 is that it behaves in a similar manner to past viruses, and so common prophylaxis is effective in preventing infection. Without such measure, COVID-19 appears to be significantly more contagious than influenza, but is much less fatal than influenza, H1N1, or SARS.


It should also be kept in mind, that a number of COVID-19 vaccine candidates have already been produced and are beginning clinical trials.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins

https://medcitynews.com/2020/02/moderna-ships-first-batch-of-covid-19-vaccine-phase-i-trial-study-page-posted-on-clinicaltrials-gov/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/modernas-stock-rises-as-it-ships-the-first-batch-of-its-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-2020-02-25

https://globalbiodefense.com/2020/02/23/university-of-queensland-covid-19-vaccine-goes-into-test-production/



Also, in the CDC briefing yesterday, Dr. Nancy Messonnier observed that many viruses die out in warmer climates, which is one reason we talk about a 'flu season' in the first place, COVID-19 cases may well die out as spring arrives.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/what-happens-to-coronavirus-covid-19-in-warmer-spring-temperatures/

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/a0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html

---

FALSE

Those 16,000 deaths are out of 29 million cases, which is a .055% mortality rate this year.

---

I showed my source and logic. You might try to do as much.

Further, consider this from the American Journal of Public Heath, published by the National Institute of Heath:

"The CDC4 and others26 have argued that recorded influenza deaths underrepresent influenza's true impact on mortality"

"In the United States, influenza is a seasonal illness, and virus circulation peaks at unpredictable times. Elevated mortality thus can occur across calendar years"

"The severity and clinical expression of disease depend on a multiplicity of additional factors, such as the novelty of the pathogen to the host, age, cocirculating pathogens, living conditions, physiological status, and access to treatment."










https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2374803/

---

My source was your source. Taken from the big blue box right on the CDC website that you listed as the first source:

• Outpatient ILI and clinical laboratory data remain elevated but decreased slightly this week. The overall decrease in the percentage of specimens testing positive for influenza was due to a decrease in the percentage of specimens testing positive for influenza B. The percentage of specimens testing positive for influenza A continued to increase.
• Overall, hospitalization rates remain similar to this time during recent seasons, but rates among children and young adults are higher at this time than in recent seasons.
• Pneumonia and influenza mortality has been low, but 105 influenza-associated deaths in children have been reported so far this season.
• CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 29 million flu illnesses, 280,000 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths from flu.
• Interim estimates of 2019-2020 flu vaccine effectiveness were released this week. So far this season, flu vaccines are reducing doctor's visits for flu illness by 45% overall and 55% in children.
• Antiviral medications are an important adjunct to flu vaccine in the control of influenza. Almost all (>99%) of the influenza viruses tested this season are susceptible to the four FDA-approved influenza antiviral medications recommended for use in the U.S. this season.

So you ignore anything but what you want to see.

Noted.

Oldbear83 said:

---

So you ignore anything but what you want to see.

Noted.

---

No, I said that influenza has killed 16,000 out of 29 million cases this year, which is based on the very CDC link that you put up, also which is all I've been saying the entire time.

trey3216 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

So you ignore anything but what you want to see.

Noted.

---

No, I said that influenza has killed 16,000 out of 29 million cases this year, which is based on the very CDC link that you put up, also which is all I've been saying the entire time.

---

You are taking a very simplistic view, and one which has nothing to do with what I have said all along regarding COVID-19.

The problem with your point is that you are looking at it without considering that demographics significantly affect the mortality rate, as does vaccination. The influenza pandemic of 1918, for example, had a mortality rate twenty times the rate of PRIOR influenza outbreaks, and infected roughly 28% of the US population.

https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/

I also listed a number of extant viruses still going around, which are much more deadly than the COVID-19, which I observe you completely ignored.

Oldbear83 said:

---

BaylorBJM said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue.

---

How can that be? OldBear said this is still a contained virus.

---

** sigh **

I never said COVID-19 was held to one country. News flash, you cannot hermetically seal a country or region from a virus.

What I said was that a lot of the media hysteria was, and is, complete BS.

---

But that's not what you said. At all.

2/25/20 @ 9:47am, BearFan33: "Is it fair to say that we have lost containment?"

2/25/20 @ 10:16am, OldBear83: "No, that would not be a fair statement."

Oldbear83 said:

---

trey3216 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

So you ignore anything but what you want to see.

Noted.

---

No, I said that influenza has killed 16,000 out of 29 million cases this year, which is based on the very CDC link that you put up, also which is all I've been saying the entire time.

---

You are taking a very simplistic view, and one which has nothing to do with what I have said all along regarding COVID-19.

The problem with your point is that you are looking at it without considering that demographics significantly affect the mortality rate, as does vaccination. The influenza pandemic of 1918, for example, had a mortality rate twenty times the rate of PRIOR influenza outbreaks, and infected roughly 28% of the US population.

https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/

I also listed a number of extant viruses still going around, which are much more deadly than the COVID-19, which I observe you completely ignored.

---

I read what you posted, but I didn't comment about it because the conversation wasn't about Dengue, Hanta, Rotavirus, etc.

The conversation I was directly replying to from the beginning of my comment was that recently, influenza has, on average, a .1% mortality rate and that COVID-19 has between a 2-2.5% mortality rate.

The Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 was fairly unique, in that many of the infected were severely malnourished soldiers who had been fighting in a brutal war in horrific conditions. As they went home, they spread the flu everywhere. We also didn't have the drugs to fight that type of virus until the 30's as it was yet to be discovered.

The Black Plague killed 25-33% of the world's population, and it's still around. However, we don't find it doing that damage anymore because we have the knowledge and ability to fight it.

This virus is new, and relatively unknown. In a few years, we'll know how to readily fight it. Right now, we're behind the 8-ball.

I don't know why you keep thinking I'm just overlooking things, and fudging numbers. I'm strictly sticking to my argument that as of right now, COVID-19 is far deadlier than seasonal influenza in terms of mortality rate, and it is so because it is a mathematical fact. RIGHT NOW. That is not to say that it will stay that way forever.

Trey: 'The conversation I was directly replying to from the beginning of my comment was that recently, influenza has, on average, a .1% mortality rate and that COVID-19 has between a 2-2.5% mortality rate."

And you ignored the point I have made for some time now, that a lot of the panic is based on poor information or outright bad information. We are still learning about COVID-19's contagion vectors, although we do know its incubation period, that it is NOT transferred through airborne pathogens, that it infects males 2.75 times as often as females, that it impacts the elderly and heath-impaired in the same ways that influenza does, but for some reason does not commonly affect children as often as influenza.

The mortality rate may well come down as we learn more, in part due to the concentration of the initial contagion in Wuhan (more than 80% all cases were in Wuhan residents, and more than 90% in Hubei province); it's notable that outside China, the mortality rate is around 1.1%, and outside Asia it drops to 0.65%

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200224-sitrep-35-covid-19.pdf

Those numbers could change of course, but it's vital to pay attention to all the relevant details.


"The Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 was fairly unique"

And so, in context, is COVID-19. Just as the panics over SARS and MERS were overblown by the media, and both of those were magnitudes more deadly than COVID-19. Way too many people just take what the TV says for granted and do not bother to do even basic research.


"This virus is new, and relatively unknown. In a few years, we'll know how to readily fight it. Right now, we're behind the 8-ball.

I don't know why you keep thinking I'm just overlooking things"

Your first statement is proof you are ignoring things. I provided multiple links to clinical trials on COVID-19 vaccines going on RIGHT NOW, which is impressive reaction and research.

We do know "how to fight it". First is to take common-sense prophylaxis measures, second is to get good information and updates on COVID-19, and third is test assumptions and reject hysteria.

BaylorBJM said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

BaylorBJM said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue.

---

How can that be? OldBear said this is still a contained virus.

---

** sigh **

I never said COVID-19 was held to one country. News flash, you cannot hermetically seal a country or region from a virus.

What I said was that a lot of the media hysteria was, and is, complete BS.

---

But that's not what you said. At all.

2/25/20 @ 9:47am, BearFan33: "Is it fair to say that we have lost containment?"

2/25/20 @ 10:16am, OldBear83: "No, that would not be a fair statement."

---

Since you cut off the rest of my statement, I'd suggest you are being dishonest.

Oldbear83 said:

---

BaylorBJM said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

BaylorBJM said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Given the speed of transmission right now and the fact that it is not detectable when first communicable, I would suggest that it will be a matter of months before it's a world wide issue.

---

How can that be? OldBear said this is still a contained virus.

---

** sigh **

I never said COVID-19 was held to one country. News flash, you cannot hermetically seal a country or region from a virus.

What I said was that a lot of the media hysteria was, and is, complete BS.

---

But that's not what you said. At all.

2/25/20 @ 9:47am, BearFan33: "Is it fair to say that we have lost containment?"

2/25/20 @ 10:16am, OldBear83: "No, that would not be a fair statement."

---

Since you cut off the rest of my statement, I'd suggest you are being dishonest.

---

My experience is you'd be right about BJM too