COVID-19 outbreak now a pandemic, World Health Organization declares

Expressing increasing alarm about mounting infections, the World Health Organization declared Wednesday that the global coronavirus crisis is now a pandemic.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who heads the U.N. agency, said the WHO is "deeply concerned by the alarming levels of spread and severity" of the outbreak. He also expressed concern about "the alarming levels of inaction."

"We have, therefore, made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic," he said at a briefing in Geneva.
"All countries can still change the course of this pandemic. If countries detect, test, treat, isolate, trace and mobilize their people in the response," Tedros said.
Italy weighed imposing even tighter restrictions on daily life and announced billions in financial relief Wednesday to cushion economic shocks from the coronavirus, its latest efforts to adjust to the fast-evolving health crisis that silenced the usually bustling heart of the Catholic faith, St. Peter's Square.
In Iran, by far the hardest-hit country in the Middle East, the senior vice president and two other Cabinet ministers were reported to have been diagnosed with COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus. Iran reported another jump in deaths, by 62 to 354 behind only China and Italy.
In Italy, Premier Giuseppe Conte said he would consider requests from Lombardy, Italy's hardest-hit region, to toughen the already extraordinary anti-virus lockdown that was extended nationwide Tuesday. Lombardy wants to shut down nonessential businesses and reduce public transportation.
These additional measures would be on top of travel and social restrictions that imposed an eerie hush on cities and towns across the country from Tuesday. Police enforced rules that customers stay 1 meter (3 feet) apart and ensured that businesses closed by 6 p.m.
China's new worry is that the coronavirus could re-enter from abroad. Beijing's city government announced that all overseas visitors will be quarantined for 14 days. Of 24 new cases that China reported Wednesday, five arrived from Italy and one from the United States. China has had over 81,000 virus infections and over 3,000 deaths.
For most, the coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. But for a few, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illnesses, including pneumonia. More than 121,000 people have been infected worldwide and over 4,300 have died.
But the vast majority of people recover. According to the World Health Organization, people with mild illness recover in about two weeks, while those with more severe illness may take three to six weeks to recover.
In the Mideast, the vast majority of the nearly 10,000 cases are in Iran or involve people who traveled there. Iran announced another increase in cases Wednesday to 9,000. Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency said they include Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, who had not been seen in photos of recent top-level meetings. Fars said Iran's ministers for cultural heritage, handcrafts and tourism, and for industry, mines and business were also infected.

Oldbear83 said:

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trey3216 said:

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Houston about to announce they're shutting down the Rodeo.

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Wouldn't be the first stupid thing Mayor Turner has done.

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You're out of line

corncob pipe said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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trey3216 said:

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Houston about to announce they're shutting down the Rodeo.

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Wouldn't be the first stupid thing Mayor Turner has done.

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You're out of line

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Not in the slightest. Panic is a bad policy.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-worldwide-peak-will-come-next-winter-scientific-model-predicts-11954441

Coronavirus: Worldwide peak will come next winter, scientific model predicts

A model predicting transmission rates suggests the novel coronavirus could fall during the summer before rising again in winter.




Scientists are warning that even if coronavirus transmissions dip as we head into the spring and summer, such a reduction shouldn't be mistaken for an end to the outbreak.

Instead a reduction of cases during the summer should be seen as a precious opportunity to prepare for next winter, when a new model suggests the virus could infect 100 times more people.

This cancellation and warning and hording reminds me of hurricane forecasts. They always predict it's coming up your driveway and somehow it goes somewhere else.

Aliceinbubbleland said:

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This cancellation and warning and hording reminds me of hurricane forecasts. They always predict it's coming up your driveway and somehow it goes somewhere else.

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LOL at "coming up your driveway".....

BaylorTaxman said:

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Aliceinbubbleland said:

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This cancellation and warning and hording reminds me of hurricane forecasts. They always predict it's coming up your driveway and somehow it goes somewhere else.

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LOL at "coming up your driveway".....

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You mean sort of like Katrina, Ike, or Maria went somewhere else?

Isn't the human body the most effective fighter of viruses like this? I know some bodies do it better than others (older vs younger, compromised immune systems, etc.), but given the symptoms and mortality rate of this virus, do we really need to be as frightened as we are? And we'll eventually have a vaccine that will work as poorly as the flu vaccines today do.

I'm not saying there's no reason for concern, but are some of these extreme measures really that necessary?

ATL Bear said:

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Isn't the human body the most effective fighter of viruses like this? I know some bodies do it better than others (older vs younger, compromised immune systems, etc.), but given the symptoms and mortality rate of this virus, do we really need to be as frightened as we are? And we'll eventually have a vaccine that will work as poorly as the flu vaccines today do.

I'm not saying there's no reason for concern, but are some of these extreme measures really that necessary?

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its really about keeping the latent case load down before next fall/winter flu season, because we still won't have a vaccine by then. Limiting it now will lessen the blow then.

ATL Bear said:

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Isn't the human body the most effective fighter of viruses like this? I know some bodies do it better than others (older vs younger, compromised immune systems, etc.), but given the symptoms and mortality rate of this virus, do we really need to be as frightened as we are? And we'll eventually have a vaccine that will work as poorly as the flu vaccines today do.

I'm not saying there's no reason for concern, but are some of these extreme measures really that necessary?

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Look at who is proposing what.

There is a reason, and it's not mostly about public safety.

trey3216 said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Isn't the human body the most effective fighter of viruses like this? I know some bodies do it better than others (older vs younger, compromised immune systems, etc.), but given the symptoms and mortality rate of this virus, do we really need to be as frightened as we are? And we'll eventually have a vaccine that will work as poorly as the flu vaccines today do.

I'm not saying there's no reason for concern, but are some of these extreme measures really that necessary?

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its really about keeping the latent case load down before next fall/winter flu season, because we still won't have a vaccine by then. Limiting it now will lessen the blow then.

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Not sure I understand you.

ATL Bear said:

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trey3216 said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Isn't the human body the most effective fighter of viruses like this? I know some bodies do it better than others (older vs younger, compromised immune systems, etc.), but given the symptoms and mortality rate of this virus, do we really need to be as frightened as we are? And we'll eventually have a vaccine that will work as poorly as the flu vaccines today do.

I'm not saying there's no reason for concern, but are some of these extreme measures really that necessary?

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its really about keeping the latent case load down before next fall/winter flu season, because we still won't have a vaccine by then. Limiting it now will lessen the blow then.

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Not sure I understand you.

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Trying to keep the case load as low as possible for the end of this flu season until weather related decline happens. The thing will be back for the fall regardless, but allowing our healthcare system to get stressed now won't allow enough time to get things right for the fall when the virus comes back full bore. That's the idea at least.

ATL Bear said:

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Isn't the human body the most effective fighter of viruses like this? I know some bodies do it better than others (older vs younger, compromised immune systems, etc.), but given the symptoms and mortality rate of this virus, do we really need to be as frightened as we are? And we'll eventually have a vaccine that will work as poorly as the flu vaccines today do.

I'm not saying there's no reason for concern, but are some of these extreme measures really that necessary?

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That doesn't help the severe stroke victim who can't get an ICU bed. Or for another example, I had a child on ECMO a few years ago. There are only about 250 of those machines in the country. If they're all occupied, my kid dies whether he has the virus or not. And while the mortality rate is relatively low compared to some of the worst viruses, it's still much higher than we're accustomed to. We're doing the right thing shutting down as much as we can. Actually we should be doing more.

Sam Lowry said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Isn't the human body the most effective fighter of viruses like this? I know some bodies do it better than others (older vs younger, compromised immune systems, etc.), but given the symptoms and mortality rate of this virus, do we really need to be as frightened as we are? And we'll eventually have a vaccine that will work as poorly as the flu vaccines today do.

I'm not saying there's no reason for concern, but are some of these extreme measures really that necessary?

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That doesn't help the severe stroke victim who can't get an ICU bed. Or for another example, I had a child on ECMO a few years ago. There are only about 250 of those machines in the country. If they're all occupied, my kid dies whether he has the virus or not. And while the mortality rate is relatively low compared to some of the worst viruses, it's still much higher than we're accustomed to. We're doing the right thing shutting down as much as we can. Actually we should be doing more.

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Oh good hypothetical anecdotes based on emotion.

Always the best way to make policy.

trey3216 said:

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ATL Bear said:

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trey3216 said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Isn't the human body the most effective fighter of viruses like this? I know some bodies do it better than others (older vs younger, compromised immune systems, etc.), but given the symptoms and mortality rate of this virus, do we really need to be as frightened as we are? And we'll eventually have a vaccine that will work as poorly as the flu vaccines today do.

I'm not saying there's no reason for concern, but are some of these extreme measures really that necessary?

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its really about keeping the latent case load down before next fall/winter flu season, because we still won't have a vaccine by then. Limiting it now will lessen the blow then.

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Not sure I understand you.

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Trying to keep the case load as low as possible for the end of this flu season until weather related decline happens. The thing will be back for the fall regardless, but allowing our healthcare system to get stressed now won't allow enough time to get things right for the fall when the virus comes back full bore. That's the idea at least.

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Spring is in 10 days. Aren't we getting into optimal virus fighting time?

boognish_bear said:

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Even Olive Garden? What about Fazoli's?

Oldbear83 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Isn't the human body the most effective fighter of viruses like this? I know some bodies do it better than others (older vs younger, compromised immune systems, etc.), but given the symptoms and mortality rate of this virus, do we really need to be as frightened as we are? And we'll eventually have a vaccine that will work as poorly as the flu vaccines today do.

I'm not saying there's no reason for concern, but are some of these extreme measures really that necessary?

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That doesn't help the severe stroke victim who can't get an ICU bed. Or for another example, I had a child on ECMO a few years ago. There are only about 250 of those machines in the country. If they're all occupied, my kid dies whether he has the virus or not. And while the mortality rate is relatively low compared to some of the worst viruses, it's still much higher than we're accustomed to. We're doing the right thing shutting down as much as we can. Actually we should be doing more.

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Oh good hypothetical anecdotes based on emotion.

Always the best way to make policy.

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250 is a number, not an emotion. It won't be my child this time, but it will be someone else's.

Sam Lowry said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Isn't the human body the most effective fighter of viruses like this? I know some bodies do it better than others (older vs younger, compromised immune systems, etc.), but given the symptoms and mortality rate of this virus, do we really need to be as frightened as we are? And we'll eventually have a vaccine that will work as poorly as the flu vaccines today do.

I'm not saying there's no reason for concern, but are some of these extreme measures really that necessary?

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That doesn't help the severe stroke victim who can't get an ICU bed. Or for another example, I had a child on ECMO a few years ago. There are only about 250 of those machines in the country. If they're all occupied, my kid dies whether he has the virus or not. And while the mortality rate is relatively low compared to some of the worst viruses, it's still much higher than we're accustomed to. We're doing the right thing shutting down as much as we can. Actually we should be doing more.

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If a vaccine is 12-18 months away, how could we possibly "shutdown" for that long? The mortality rate is inflated due to the numbers from China, who's healthcare capabilities suck. Africa and Latin America seem to be prospectively ok. Egypt is the only country where its picking up primarily due to foreigners. These continents are prime candidates for pandemic spread.

Universities across the country are shutting down in person classes. Those of you who say panic is a bad policy you should call Pat Neff and tell them. I personally think the Baylor administration is very wise and pragmatic about this. I praise them for this.

PartyBear said:

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Universities across the country are shutting down in person classes. Those of you who say panic is a bad policy you should call Pat Neff and tell them. I personally think the Baylor administration is very wise and pragmatic about this. I praise them for this.

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Baylor seemed to have the lead on this in the state...about 30 mins after BU's announcement TCU and UTSA made almost identical announcements

ATL Bear said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Isn't the human body the most effective fighter of viruses like this? I know some bodies do it better than others (older vs younger, compromised immune systems, etc.), but given the symptoms and mortality rate of this virus, do we really need to be as frightened as we are? And we'll eventually have a vaccine that will work as poorly as the flu vaccines today do.

I'm not saying there's no reason for concern, but are some of these extreme measures really that necessary?

---

That doesn't help the severe stroke victim who can't get an ICU bed. Or for another example, I had a child on ECMO a few years ago. There are only about 250 of those machines in the country. If they're all occupied, my kid dies whether he has the virus or not. And while the mortality rate is relatively low compared to some of the worst viruses, it's still much higher than we're accustomed to. We're doing the right thing shutting down as much as we can. Actually we should be doing more.

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If a vaccine is 12-18 months away, how could we possibly "shutdown" for that long? The mortality rate is inflated due to the numbers from China, who's healthcare capabilities suck. Africa and Latin America seem to be prospectively ok. Egypt is the only country where its picking up primarily due to foreigners. These continents are prime candidates for pandemic spread.

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I think the mortality rate may be somewhat inflated, but as Dr. Fauci said, even 1% presents a problem. I don't agree that Egypt is the only country where it's increasing. By my calculations it's doubling about every five days in the US. You don't have to shut down for 12-18 months, though. In the worst case scenario, it would probably subside when half the population was infected. It could go a lot better, depending on what measures we take. The important thing is that acting sooner is exponentially more effective than acting later. The speed of increase is more important in a way than the final amount, because it's what determines the healthcare system's ability to cope.

Sam Lowry said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Isn't the human body the most effective fighter of viruses like this? I know some bodies do it better than others (older vs younger, compromised immune systems, etc.), but given the symptoms and mortality rate of this virus, do we really need to be as frightened as we are? And we'll eventually have a vaccine that will work as poorly as the flu vaccines today do.

I'm not saying there's no reason for concern, but are some of these extreme measures really that necessary?

---

That doesn't help the severe stroke victim who can't get an ICU bed. Or for another example, I had a child on ECMO a few years ago. There are only about 250 of those machines in the country. If they're all occupied, my kid dies whether he has the virus or not. And while the mortality rate is relatively low compared to some of the worst viruses, it's still much higher than we're accustomed to. We're doing the right thing shutting down as much as we can. Actually we should be doing more.

---

If a vaccine is 12-18 months away, how could we possibly "shutdown" for that long? The mortality rate is inflated due to the numbers from China, who's healthcare capabilities suck. Africa and Latin America seem to be prospectively ok. Egypt is the only country where its picking up primarily due to foreigners. These continents are prime candidates for pandemic spread.

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I think the mortality rate may be somewhat inflated, but as Dr. Fauci said, even 1% presents a problem. I don't agree that Egypt is the only country where it's increasing. By my calculations it's doubling about every five days in the US. You don't have to shut down for 12-18 months, though. In the worst case scenario, it would probably subside when half the population was infected. It could go a lot better, depending on what measures we take. The important thing is that acting sooner is exponentially more effective than acting later.

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The official case count quintupled in the US I. The last 4 days.

Would you please JUST GO AWAY!!!

Jack Bauer said:

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Would you please JUST GO AWAY!!!

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She did equally as well against the bubonic plague, smallpox, and dropsy.

whitetrash said:

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Jack Bauer said:

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Would you please JUST GO AWAY!!!

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She did equally as well against the bubonic plague, smallpox, and dropsy.

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She's been dropsy-d a few times