Canada2017 said:

---

I have to agree........the ' data ' is not remotely compelling .

Though we will certainly know by mid June one way or the other.

---

Very true. South Korea sort of has me baffled. I'm not sure how much is actual virus defeat versus they slowed the acceleration and now they only test/deal with the severe cases. I say that because their number of new cases is drastically down, but their new deaths as a ratio of new cases is running at like 4-7 percent which is impacting the mortality rate which has been outstanding.

BTW, I'm okay with that approach and think we'll eventually get there as we understand the virus has a low mortality rate overall.

TexasScientist said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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TexasScientist said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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So you cite a newspaper which quotes an agency which references but does not provide source data for claims using words like "suggest".

That's some weak evidence for your claim, son.

---

Show me where the EUCDC is wrong.

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You have it backwards. You made a claim which runs against the historical behavior of all prior viruses, so it's your burden to prove your claim.

What you provided was far from compelling.

---

I'm not claiming anything. I'm repeating what others have said or written on whether warmer weather will or will not reduce the incidence. You're the one who said that it would subside due to warmer weather. Maybe you should offer conclusive studies to prove it.

---

We don't know what we don't know, but we do know that higher humidity disturbs airborne virus spread due to the physics of it. As a scientist I'm sure you understand that part of it. Whether it will disturb C-19 as much as others is dependent upon how long it can live outside the body and at what temperatures. That factor is independent of the reality of high relative humidity environments slowing airborne virus spread and is the unknown of how much better weather might impact C-19 spread.

ATL Bear said:

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Canada2017 said:

---

I have to agree........the ' data ' is not remotely compelling .

Though we will certainly know by mid June one way or the other.

---

Very true. South Korea sort of has me baffled. I'm not sure how much is actual virus defeat versus they slowed the acceleration and now they only test/deal with the severe cases. I say that because their number of new cases is drastically down, but their new deaths as a ratio of new cases is running at like 4-7 percent which is impacting the mortality rate which has been outstanding.

BTW, I'm okay with that approach and think we'll eventually get there as we understand the virus has a low mortality rate overall.

---

Hope you are right ...but if a more virulent strain hits next fall ( and no vaccine is available )and the economy continues to collapse the world wide death toll could be in the millions.

ATL Bear said:

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TexasScientist said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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TexasScientist said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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So you cite a newspaper which quotes an agency which references but does not provide source data for claims using words like "suggest".

That's some weak evidence for your claim, son.

---

Show me where the EUCDC is wrong.

---

You have it backwards. You made a claim which runs against the historical behavior of all prior viruses, so it's your burden to prove your claim.

What you provided was far from compelling.

---

I'm not claiming anything. I'm repeating what others have said or written on whether warmer weather will or will not reduce the incidence. You're the one who said that it would subside due to warmer weather. Maybe you should offer conclusive studies to prove it.

---

We don't know what we don't know, but we do know that higher humidity disturbs airborne virus spread due to the physics of it. As a scientist I'm sure you understand that part of it. Whether it will disturb C-19 as much as others is dependent upon how long it can live outside the body and at what temperatures. That factor is independent of the reality of high relative humidity environments slowing airborne virus spread and is the unknown of how much better weather might impact C-19 spread.

---

Yep.

You did indeed make a bold, now much-diluted, claim that the virus would not slow down because of heat.

Just acknowledge you misspoke and move on.

Just past 100,000 US cases.

Quote:

---

NEW ORLEANS More than a million dancing, singing, bead-catching celebrants packed the streets of the French Quarter and other venues across this city in the weeks leading up to the sprawling open-air party that is Mardi Gras.

There was little worry during the February festivities about the new virus that had infected a few dozen people in other parts of the country. The city's top health official believed the flu "is far more dangerous right now than the coronavirus," she told the Times-Picayune/New Orleans Advocate newspaper.

Thirteen days later, on March 9, Louisiana reported its first case of covid-19. Then came another, and another. Clusters broke out in several nursing homes. The cases popping up across the state were not easily linked to each other, meaning that a galloping community spread was already underway.

---

Feb. 25th their streets were full of people, now it is spreading like crazy in La.

I remember just the weekend before last some here were saying it would peak in the US in a few days at a little more than 3000 and that the whole cycle here would last only about 2 weeks.

Is there not a difference between testing positive and testing positive with severe complications? Ie is it not possible a whole host of people are testing positive with little/no symptoms (say fever only)? Or even that a bigger percentage are infected but don't know it because they are showing no symptoms?

Ie a positive test may not mean that a person is taking an ICU bed or on a ventilator

ATL Bear said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

I have to agree........the ' data ' is not remotely compelling .

Though we will certainly know by mid June one way or the other.

---

Very true. South Korea sort of has me baffled. I'm not sure how much is actual virus defeat versus they slowed the acceleration and now they only test/deal with the severe cases. I say that because their number of new cases is drastically down, but their new deaths as a ratio of new cases is running at like 4-7 percent which is impacting the mortality rate which has been outstanding.

BTW, I'm okay with that approach and think we'll eventually get there as we understand the virus has a low mortality rate overall.

---

I'm beginning to wonder two things: first, if the mortality rate is even 1%, and second if we are getting good enough data to have a ****ing clue.

quash said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

I have to agree........the ' data ' is not remotely compelling .

Though we will certainly know by mid June one way or the other.

---

Very true. South Korea sort of has me baffled. I'm not sure how much is actual virus defeat versus they slowed the acceleration and now they only test/deal with the severe cases. I say that because their number of new cases is drastically down, but their new deaths as a ratio of new cases is running at like 4-7 percent which is impacting the mortality rate which has been outstanding.

BTW, I'm okay with that approach and think we'll eventually get there as we understand the virus has a low mortality rate overall.

---

I'm beginning to wonder two things: first, if the mortality rate is even 1%, and second if we are getting good enough data to have a ****ing clue.

---

Excellent points.

quash said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

I have to agree........the ' data ' is not remotely compelling .

Though we will certainly know by mid June one way or the other.

---

Very true. South Korea sort of has me baffled. I'm not sure how much is actual virus defeat versus they slowed the acceleration and now they only test/deal with the severe cases. I say that because their number of new cases is drastically down, but their new deaths as a ratio of new cases is running at like 4-7 percent which is impacting the mortality rate which has been outstanding.

BTW, I'm okay with that approach and think we'll eventually get there as we understand the virus has a low mortality rate overall.

---

I'm beginning to wonder two things: first, if the mortality rate is even 1%, and second if we are getting good enough data to have a ****ing clue.

---

Really good points. Another point I want to point out, I've keep hearing some people say we haven't seen anything like this since 1918. At this point, it is not like the 1918 Influenza. Hopefully it stays that way.

Quote:

---

The 1918 virus, especially in its second wave, was not only virulent and lethal, but extraordinarily violent. It created a range of symptoms rarely seen with the disease. After H5N1 first appeared in 1997, pathologists reported some findings "not previously described with influenza" (To et al., 2001). In fact, investigators in 1918 described every pathological change seen with H5N1 and more (Jordon, 1927: 266268).

Symptoms in 1918 were so unusual that initially influenza was misdiagnosed as dengue, cholera, or typhoid. One observer wrote, "One of the most striking of the complications was hemorrhage from mucous membranes, especially from the nose, stomach, and intestine. Bleeding from the ears and petechial hemorrhages in the skin also occurred" (Ireland, 1928: 57). A German investigator recorded "hemorrhages occurring in different parts of the interior of the eye" with great frequency (Thomson and Thomson, 1934b). An American pathologist noted: "Fifty cases of subconjunctival hemorrhage were counted. Twelve had a true hemotypsis, bright red blood with no admixture of mucus. Three cases had intestinal hemorrhage" (Ireland, 1928: 13). The New York City Health Department's chief pathologist said, "Cases with intense pain look and act like cases of dengue hemorrhage from nose or bronchi paresis or paralysis of either cerebral or spinal origin impairment of motion may be severe or mild, permanent or temporary physical and mental depression. Intense and protracted prostration led to hysteria, melancholia, and insanity with suicidal intent" (Jordon, 1927: 265).

The 1918 virus also targeted young adults. In South African cities, those between the ages of 20 and 40 accounted for 60 percent of the deaths (Katzenellenbogen, 1988). In Chicago the deaths among those aged 20 to 40 nearly quintupled deaths of those aged 41 to 60 (Van Hartesveldt, 1992). A Swiss physician "saw no severe case in anyone over 50."1 In the "registration area" of the United Statesthose states and cities that kept reliable statisticsthe single greatest number of deaths occurred in the cohort aged 25 to 29, the second greatest in those aged 30 to 34, and the third in those aged 20 to 24. More people died in each one of those 5-year groups than the total deaths among all those over age 60, and the combined deaths of those aged 20 to 34 more than doubled the deaths of all those over 50 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1921). The single group most likely to die if infected were pregnant women. In 13 studies of hospitalized pregnant women during the 1918 pandemic, the death rate ranged from 23 to 71 percent (Jordon, 1927: 273). Of the pregnant women who survived, 26 percent lost the child (Harris, 1919). (As far back as 1557, people connected influenza with miscarriage and the death of pregnant women.)

The case mortality rate varied widely. An overall figure is impossible to obtain, or even estimate reliably, because no solid information about total cases exists. In U.S. Army camps where reasonably reliable statistics were kept, case mortality often exceeded 5 percent, and in some circumstances exceeded 10 percent. In the British Army in India, case mortality for white troops was 9.6 percent, for Indian troops 21.9 percent.

In isolated human populations, the virus killed at even higher rates. In the Fiji islands, it killed 14 percent of the entire population in 16 days. In Labrador and Alaska, it killed at least one-third of the entire native population (Jordan, 1927; Rice, 1988).

But perhaps most disturbing and most relevant for today is the fact that a significant minorityand in some subgroups of the population a majorityof deaths came directly from the virus, not from secondary bacterial pneumonias.

In 1918, pathologists were intimately familiar with the condition of lungs of victims of bacterial pneumonia at autopsy. But the viral pneumonias caused by the influenza pandemic were so violent that many investigators said the only lungs they had seen that resembled them were from victims of poison gas.

Then, the Army called them "atypical pneumonias." Today we would call this atypical pneumonia Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). The Army's pneumonia board judged that "more than half" of all the deaths among soldiers came from this atypical pneumonia (Ireland, 1928).
One cannot extrapolate from this directly to the civilian population. Army figures represent a special case both in terms of demographics and environment, including overcrowded barracks.

Even so, the fact that ARDS likely caused more than half the deaths among young adults sends a warning. ARDS mortality rates today range from 40 to 60 percent, even with support in modern intensive care units (ICUs). In a pandemic, ICUs would be quickly overwhelmed, representing a major challenge for public health planners.

---

quash said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

I have to agree........the ' data ' is not remotely compelling .

Though we will certainly know by mid June one way or the other.

---

Very true. South Korea sort of has me baffled. I'm not sure how much is actual virus defeat versus they slowed the acceleration and now they only test/deal with the severe cases. I say that because their number of new cases is drastically down, but their new deaths as a ratio of new cases is running at like 4-7 percent which is impacting the mortality rate which has been outstanding.

BTW, I'm okay with that approach and think we'll eventually get there as we understand the virus has a low mortality rate overall.

---

I'm beginning to wonder two things: first, if the mortality rate is even 1%, and second if we are getting good enough data to have a ****ing clue.

---

So true. One can usually spot something way outside trends, but how do you determine actual, or some semblance, when so much is missing?

This is a really good listen, this General needs to be out in front of the camera more but I doubt he has much time.
They are in the process of modifying over 100+ facilities nationwide (hotel/college dorm or sports arena) to become a backup facility for hospitals.

quash said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

I have to agree........the ' data ' is not remotely compelling .

Though we will certainly know by mid June one way or the other.

---

Very true. South Korea sort of has me baffled. I'm not sure how much is actual virus defeat versus they slowed the acceleration and now they only test/deal with the severe cases. I say that because their number of new cases is drastically down, but their new deaths as a ratio of new cases is running at like 4-7 percent which is impacting the mortality rate which has been outstanding.

BTW, I'm okay with that approach and think we'll eventually get there as we understand the virus has a low mortality rate overall.

---

I'm beginning to wonder two things: first, if the mortality rate is even 1%, and second if we are getting good enough data to have a ****ing clue.

---

I suspect that the answer to your first question is no. I am absolutely certain that the answer to your second question is no.

The models so far are not working. Next month will tell if they were utter failure or best chance guestaments.

Over 400 people in the U.S. died just today from the virus.

BaylorTaxman said:

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Over 400 people in the U.S. died just today from the virus.

---

We're any given Hydroxychloroquine? No?

Why not???

It's working

Florda_mike said:

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BaylorTaxman said:

---

Over 400 people in the U.S. died just today from the virus.

---

We're any given Hydroxychloroquine? No?

Why not???

It's working

---

Well, one died of hydroxychoroquine overdose by self medicating. Whether we believe the media or not on why he did that is up to each of I guess.

BaylorTaxman said:

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Over 400 people in the U.S. died just today from the virus.

---

According to Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/), 480 deaths in the whole word on March 27.

Osodecentx said:

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BaylorTaxman said:

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Over 400 people in the U.S. died just today from the virus.

---

According to Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/), 480 deaths in the whole word on March 27.

---

3,271 in the world, 401 in the US on March 27:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

nein51 said:

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Is there not a difference between testing positive and testing positive with severe complications? Ie is it not possible a whole host of people are testing positive with little/no symptoms (say fever only)? Or even that a bigger percentage are infected but don't know it because they are showing no symptoms?

Ie a positive test may not mean that a person is taking an ICU bed or on a ventilator

---

There's no doubt there are people who are positive with no symptoms. My understanding is that test shouldn't be available to people without symptoms.

Most positive tests do not lead to hospitalization. Stay at home and work through it with liquids and traditional meds. The beds are for those the worse cases.

The original purpose of the test was to track the data and cut off the virus. That's only effective if you do so early on. We missed that window. Now we're testing as a diagnosis.

Buddha Bear said:

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Florda_mike said:

---

BaylorTaxman said:

---

Over 400 people in the U.S. died just today from the virus.

---

We're any given Hydroxychloroquine? No?

Why not???

It's working

---

Well, one died of hydroxychoroquine overdose by self medicating. Whether we believe the media or not on why he did that is up to each of I guess.

---

You're dishonest again

He self prescribed fishbowl chloroquine and ODed

Doctor prescribed Hydroxychloroquine is reportedly working 100% in any reported study

Your side doesn't want a cure

"Let it rain, let it rain famine on the people" says the democrat

Urns in Wuhan far exceed death toll, raising more questions about China's tally

http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/

Buddha Bear said:

---

---

Not sure if this is meant as a reply to my post.

Florda_mike said:

---

Buddha Bear said:

---

Florda_mike said:

---

BaylorTaxman said:

---

Over 400 people in the U.S. died just today from the virus.

---

We're any given Hydroxychloroquine? No?

Why not???

It's working

---

Well, one died of hydroxychoroquine overdose by self medicating. Whether we believe the media or not on why he did that is up to each of I guess.

---

You're dishonest again

He self prescribed fishbowl chloroquine and ODed

Doctor prescribed Hydroxychloroquine is reportedly working 100% in any reported study

Your side doesn't want a cure

"Let it rain, let it rain famine on the people" says the democrat

---

I mean, its Rueters, but ok

https://news.yahoo.com/arizona-man-dies-taking-chloroquine-234346609.html

ATL Bear said:

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Buddha Bear said:

---

---

Not sure if this is meant as a reply to my post.

---

Wrong reply, sorry.

TexasScientist said:

---

Urns in Wuhan far exceed death toll, raising more questions about China's tally

http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/

---

China's numbers past and present are manufactured without question.

Updated virus progression

March 19: 4,530 new cases, 57 new deaths
March 20: 5,594 new cases, 49 new deaths
March 21: 4,824 new cases, 46 new deaths
March 22: 9,339 new cases. 117 new deaths
March 23: 10,168 new cases. 140 new deaths.
March 24: 11,089 new cases. 225 new deaths.
March 25: 13,355 new cases. 247 new deaths.
March 26: 17,224 new cases. 268 new deaths.
March 27: 18,691 new cases. 401 new deaths.

Total cases (tested): 104,126
Total deaths: 1,696

Buddha Bear said:

---

Florda_mike said:

---

Buddha Bear said:

---

Florda_mike said:

---

BaylorTaxman said:

---

Over 400 people in the U.S. died just today from the virus.

---

We're any given Hydroxychloroquine? No?

Why not???

It's working

---

Well, one died of hydroxychoroquine overdose by self medicating. Whether we believe the media or not on why he did that is up to each of I guess.

---

You're dishonest again

He self prescribed fishbowl chloroquine and ODed

Doctor prescribed Hydroxychloroquine is reportedly working 100% in any reported study

Your side doesn't want a cure

"Let it rain, let it rain famine on the people" says the democrat

---

I mean, its Rueters, but ok

https://news.yahoo.com/arizona-man-dies-taking-chloroquine-234346609.html

---

Seriously? Did you read your own article?

It describes my post

...... but ok