riflebear said:

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TDS - lol

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A politician taking medical decisions out of the hands of doctors pretty much is the opposite listening to medical experts.

PartyBear said:

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Flaming Moderate said:

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PartyBear said:

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Flaming Moderate said:

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Based on CDC data, new cases for today's reporting period showed an increase of 16.1% - that's the lowest increase on a percentage basis since mid-March. This still largely is a New York metro problem: it plus California and Washington have 58.4% of the nation's cases.

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Wrong. Those three states' cases make up about 50% of US cases currently. Meaning it is spreading faster everywhere else. Florida now has almost as many cases as California and will probably surpass California in a few days. Tiny Louisiana also almost has as many cases as California.

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"New Math"

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I would encourage any of you to go to the coronavirus.1point3acres.com site and do the math yourselves. I think their numbers are updated every few hours down to the county. I think they are more updated than Atlanta Bear's. I noticed the site had a death in McLennan County mentioned this morning before any press release.

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I'm fine with the CDC but thanks. I'd rather have good numbers than fast numbers.

Updated virus progression

March 19: 4,530 new cases, 57 new deaths
March 20: 5,594 new cases, 49 new deaths
March 21: 4,824 new cases, 46 new deaths
March 22: 9,339 new cases. 117 new deaths
March 23: 10,168 new cases. 140 new deaths.
March 24: 11,089 new cases. 225 new deaths.
March 25: 13,355 new cases. 247 new deaths.
March 26: 17,224 new cases. 268 new deaths.
March 27: 18,691 new cases. 401 new deaths.
March 28: 19,452 new cases. 525 new deaths
March 29: 18,882 new cases. 264 new deaths
March 30: 20,353 new cases. 573 new deaths.
March 31: 24,742 new cases. 912 new deaths.

Total cases (tested): 188,530
Total deaths: 4,053

Texas:
March 30: 2,906 cases. 41 deaths.
March 31: 3,666 cases. 56 deaths.

New York:
March 30: 67,325 cases. 1,342 deaths.
March 31: 75,983 cases. 1,714 deaths.

Ugly day, no way to sugar coat it. Significant jump in new cases (~25% day over day). Testing has picked up significantly, so I'd imagine we're in for a short period of spikes. The good news in this, and some people won't like this, but on the scheme of the large numbers pulled out by early models, we're still way off any pace to reach it. Even the 100,000 - 200,000 fatality numbers are way off with these trends. Worst case scenarios must always be submitted so butts are covered. Hopeful that measures taken will have an impact on the numbers in the not so distant future.

Liberals won't like to hear this, but even if they do they will ignore it.

Goodness - what a disaster the Chinese have been - and the W.H.O. from the beginning.

riflebear said:

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Goodness - what a disaster the Chinese have been - and the W.H.O. from the beginning.

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I just skimmed it, so tell me if I'm wrong, but didn't the article say China only omitted 1,500 asymptomatic carriers from their numbers? I'm not saying to believe that's all, I just didn't see much new news in this article.

ATL Bear said:

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Updated virus progression

March 19: 4,530 new cases, 57 new deaths
March 20: 5,594 new cases, 49 new deaths
March 21: 4,824 new cases, 46 new deaths
March 22: 9,339 new cases. 117 new deaths
March 23: 10,168 new cases. 140 new deaths.
March 24: 11,089 new cases. 225 new deaths.
March 25: 13,355 new cases. 247 new deaths.
March 26: 17,224 new cases. 268 new deaths.
March 27: 18,691 new cases. 401 new deaths.
March 28: 19,452 new cases. 525 new deaths
March 29: 18,882 new cases. 264 new deaths
March 30: 20,353 new cases. 573 new deaths.
March 31: 24,742 new cases. 912 new deaths.

Total cases (tested): 188,530
Total deaths: 4,053

Texas:
March 30: 2,906 cases. 41 deaths.
March 31: 3,666 cases. 56 deaths.

New York:
March 30: 67,325 cases. 1,342 deaths.
March 31: 75,983 cases. 1,714 deaths.

Ugly day, no way to sugar coat it. Significant jump in new cases (~25% day over day). Testing has picked up significantly, so I'd imagine we're in for a short period of spikes. The good news in this, and some people won't like this, but on the scheme of the large numbers pulled out by early models, we're still way off any pace to reach it. Even the 100,000 - 200,000 fatality numbers are way off with these trends. Worst case scenarios must always be submitted so butts are covered. Hopeful that measures taken will have an impact on the numbers in the not so distant future.

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Thanks for data

LTbear said:

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riflebear said:

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Goodness - what a disaster the Chinese have been - and the W.H.O. from the beginning.

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I just skimmed it, so tell me if I'm wrong, but didn't the article say China only omitted 1,500 asymptomatic carriers from their numbers? I'm not saying to believe that's all, I just didn't see much new news in this article.

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I thought the same thing. Most of the article wasn't even about that.

riflebear said:

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Liberals won't like to hear this, but even if they do they will ignore it.

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I picture you going through life like this, politicizing everything. "Oh look, a stop sign. Liberals hate it and probably ignore it."

Why don't you just give your political opinion and let the liberals voice their own.

quash said:

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riflebear said:

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Liberals won't like to hear this, but even if they do they will ignore it.

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I picture you going through life like this, politicizing everything. "Oh look, a stop sign. Liberals hate it and probably ignore it."

Why don't you just give your political opinion and let the liberals voice their own.

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LOL - that's exactly what you do.

I just call out the liberal media. I notice you avoid what the video is about because it destroys your narrative. As usual deflect and ignore when the truth comes out.

quash said:

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riflebear said:

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quash said:

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riflebear said:

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Liberals won't like to hear this, but even if they do they will ignore it.

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I picture you going through life like this, politicizing everything. "Oh look, a stop sign. Liberals hate it and probably ignore it."

Why don't you just give your political opinion and let the liberals voice their own.

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LOL - that's exactly what you do.

I just call out the liberal media. I notice you avoid what the video is about because it destroys your narrative. As usual deflect and ignore when the truth comes out.

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Yes, I voice my political opinion, I don't create overwrought narratives of what others will say.

FTR, I don't watch 99% of the videos you post. Too much crap, not enough content. If someone else comments about it in a way that I find compelling I may go back and watch. I just find that you focus on liberal tears, not substance.

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Thanks for confirming you don't want the truth. You just admitted in all of the debates when the actual facts come out from the very people who have them you would rather not listen. What kind of person doesn't want to be informed? Then you respond and try to debate w/out having the facts. No wonder everyone runs circles around you and debating you is madness. Now we know why - you don't even try to get the facts or stay informed.

How pathetic is that. I will no longer respond to you now knowing you don't even want to have a normal conversation or debate by getting the facts. Unreal.

These videos aren't even from politicians, they are from medical experts and you still don't want to hear the truth. Stage 10 TDS folks.

tommie said:

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Forest Bueller_bf said:

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tommie said:

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Trump is having a good press conference. No CEOs. Just professionals addressing the modeling and issues.

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I hope they are right with 100K but it seems very optimistic really. The regular flu killed 80K a couple years ago and nobody batted an eye.

If this extends through next Spring, which it may and 500 die per day of this, that alone would be 175,000 deaths.

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The new model is moving upward. What I find interesting is Washington State and Cali sheltered early and have held the line.

I'm concerned that Florida and Texas still hasn't sheltered.

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The orders to shelter are out there, but the stores are packed every day. I just don't see how it works if we are always around others.

The problem is, all it takes even with shelter in place, one person goes to the store gets exposed, the three that stay home then gets exposed by the one who gets out to shop.

I also do NOT like this projection. Shoot this could shut us down until next winter. We ain't been talking about the explosion of cases projected this fall, even with the measures we are enacting right now.

riflebear said:

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Goodness - what a disaster the Chinese have been - and the W.H.O. from the beginning.

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I'm more concerned with the news that ONE large Funeral Home of seven large ones in Wuhan received 5000 URNS in one order, and all 7 of them are working all out, just like the one that received 5000.

Bottom line, China is lying. They had a lot of death, just as I'm very afraid we will too.

quash (to riflebear): "Too much crap, not enough content."

A predictable throwaway comment we see from both sides, and usually used to excuse laziness.

We all ignore posts sometimes, maybe because we are short on time, maybe because we don't consider the source reputable, and sometimes because someone wants to avoid challenging their assumptions.

Way to be a herd animal, quash. You have just posted a Florda-level comment, you know.

Oldbear83 said:

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Way to be a herd animal, quash. You have just posted a Florda-level comment, you know.

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I thought you said you weren't posting any vicious attacks

There is no way this shuts us down until next winter. People are willing to put up with restrictions but the restrictions arent that tight right now and there is [sort of] an end in sight. When/if the restrictions get tougher or there is, seemingly, no end things will go from a little bit of a bummer to real bad, real quick.

First, if we stay shut down until next winter (and I would posit more than 90 days total as that is about the cash reserves most small/medium businesses sit on if they are lucky) there will be no work for anyone to go back to because they will all have gone bankrupt.

Second, and more importantly, this isnt China...on the whole we are simply not good at following governmental orders, it's what makes us great, it's also why the stores are full.

Living is risky and nobody gets out alive; at some point you simply have to agree to some level of risk. Shutting down the global economy every time there is a viral outbreak is not sustainable. It may not be this virus but, at some point, we are going to have to come to grips with the fact that a % of the world's population is going to be killed by a virus and hope that you and the people you love are not in that %.

Ultimately, whether you die from a virus or the ensuing Mad Max chaos of a collapsed world economy is really irrelevant.

Oldbear83 said:

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quash (to riflebear): "Too much crap, not enough content."

A predictable throwaway comment we see from both sides, and usually used to excuse laziness.

We all ignore posts sometimes, maybe because we are short on time, maybe because we don't consider the source reputable, and sometimes because someone wants to avoid challenging their assumptions.

Way to be a herd animal, quash. You have just posted a Florda-level comment, you know.

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Videos are the BEST way to get the truth from experts. W/ the press spinning everything negative that's the way you actually hear what happened. To say you don't even watch and then still try to debate is crazy.

Now of course what someone says on video could be wrong and could be debated later but to try and debate a topic w/out knowing what it's actually about is funny yet sad.

LTbear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Way to be a herd animal, quash. You have just posted a Florda-level comment, you know.

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I thought you said you weren't posting any vicious attacks

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Comparing someone to Florda is pretty rough, but I call em as I see em.

nein51 said:

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There is no way this shuts us down until next winter. People are willing to put up with restrictions but the restrictions arent that tight right now and there is [sort of] an end in sight. When/if the restrictions get tougher or there is, seemingly, no end things will go from a little bit of a bummer to real bad, real quick.

First, if we stay shut down until next winter (and I would posit more than 90 days total as that is about the cash reserves most small/medium businesses sit on if they are lucky) there will be no work for anyone to go back to because they will all have gone bankrupt.

Second, and more importantly, this isnt China...on the whole we are simply not good at following governmental orders, it's what makes us great, it's also why the stores are full.

Living is risky and nobody gets out alive; at some point you simply have to agree to some level of risk. Shutting down the global economy every time there is a viral outbreak is not sustainable. It may not be this virus but, at some point, we are going to have to come to grips with the fact that a % of the world's population is going to be killed by a virus and hope that you and the people you love are not in that %.

Ultimately, whether you die from a virus or the ensuing Mad Max chaos of a collapsed world economy is really irrelevant.

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Truth here. We can't shut down forever. People have to work to live.

But, I keep hearing people say, on TV, that once we get past this month or so we should be ok..

I've seen a lot of projections that have a major outbreak next fall.

Forest Bueller_bf said:

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nein51 said:

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There is no way this shuts us down until next winter. People are willing to put up with restrictions but the restrictions arent that tight right now and there is [sort of] an end in sight. When/if the restrictions get tougher or there is, seemingly, no end things will go from a little bit of a bummer to real bad, real quick.

First, if we stay shut down until next winter (and I would posit more than 90 days total as that is about the cash reserves most small/medium businesses sit on if they are lucky) there will be no work for anyone to go back to because they will all have gone bankrupt.

Second, and more importantly, this isnt China...on the whole we are simply not good at following governmental orders, it's what makes us great, it's also why the stores are full.

Living is risky and nobody gets out alive; at some point you simply have to agree to some level of risk. Shutting down the global economy every time there is a viral outbreak is not sustainable. It may not be this virus but, at some point, we are going to have to come to grips with the fact that a % of the world's population is going to be killed by a virus and hope that you and the people you love are not in that %.

Ultimately, whether you die from a virus or the ensuing Mad Max chaos of a collapsed world economy is really irrelevant.

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Truth here. We can't shut down forever. People have to work to live.

But, I keep hearing people say, on TV, that once we get past this month or so we should be ok..

I've seen a lot of projections that have a major outbreak next fall.

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We are planning that the pandemic will not end until February.

Then another year 6 months after that for the economy to rebuild .

There is no quick fix with this situation.

Flaming Moderate said:

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riflebear said:

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TDS - lol

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A politician taking medical decisions out of the hands of doctors pretty much is the opposite listening to medical experts.

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Several states did (including Texas). They put the decision in the hands of the FDA. FDA gave an emergency approval.

If it were me, I'd like it to be a private decision between me and my doctor.

Some good news: Day/Day decrease in absolute incidence and incidence growth
- 4/1: 13.8% day/day incidence today / 22,562 incidence
- 3/31: 16.06 day/day incidence yesterday / 22,635
- 57% of prevalence continues to be in CA/WA/NY-NJ
- Texas is #12 in absolute prevalence and growing slightly less day / day than RON.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

tommie said:

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Flaming Moderate said:

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riflebear said:

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TDS - lol

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A politician taking medical decisions out of the hands of doctors pretty much is the opposite listening to medical experts.

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Several states did (including Texas). They put the decision in the hands of the FDA. FDA have an emergency approval.

If it were me, I'd like it to be a private decision between me and my doctor.

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Agreed. Doctors writing off-label Rx's is is not uncommon. However, the FDA exists to protect consumers from dangerous medications - more qualified than a politician.

Gov DeSantis to issue 30-day stay-home order for Florida

Georgia did the same as Florida but only through the 13th.

Meanwhile friggin New York is reporting over 500 deaths today and pushed the US total over 1,000 for the day.

Oldbear83 said:

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quash (to riflebear): "Too much crap, not enough content."

A predictable throwaway comment we see from both sides, and usually used to excuse laziness.

We all ignore posts sometimes, maybe because we are short on time, maybe because we don't consider the source reputable, and sometimes because someone wants to avoid challenging their assumptions.

Way to be a herd animal, quash. You have just posted a Florda-level comment, you know.

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When you strip out the content of my post, sure.

riflebear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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quash (to riflebear): "Too much crap, not enough content."

A predictable throwaway comment we see from both sides, and usually used to excuse laziness.

We all ignore posts sometimes, maybe because we are short on time, maybe because we don't consider the source reputable, and sometimes because someone wants to avoid challenging their assumptions.

Way to be a herd animal, quash. You have just posted a Florda-level comment, you know.

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Videos are the BEST way to get the truth from experts. W/ the press spinning everything negative that's the way you actually hear what happened. To say you don't even watch and then still try to debate is crazy.

Now of course what someone says on video could be wrong and could be debated later but to try and debate a topic w/out knowing what it's actually about is funny yet sad.

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Tell you what: next time you post a video give a heads up of what's in it, not some political gaslighting about what liberals are going to do. Show a little respect and let folks choose their own reactions.

Also, make sure you watch it first. We don't want you doing that wrong country thing again...

Hell it will take more than 6 months for the economy to rebuild whether it ends in May or Feb of 21. Getting out of this will be like getting out of the Depression especially if the Virus isn't under control until Feb of 21.

Updated virus progression

March 19: 4,530 new cases, 57 new deaths
March 20: 5,594 new cases, 49 new deaths
March 21: 4,824 new cases, 46 new deaths
March 22: 9,339 new cases. 117 new deaths
March 23: 10,168 new cases. 140 new deaths.
March 24: 11,089 new cases. 225 new deaths.
March 25: 13,355 new cases. 247 new deaths.
March 26: 17,224 new cases. 268 new deaths.
March 27: 18,691 new cases. 401 new deaths.
March 28: 19,452 new cases. 525 new deaths
March 29: 18,882 new cases. 264 new deaths
March 30: 20,353 new cases. 573 new deaths.
March 31: 24,742 new cases. 912 new deaths.
April 1: 26,473 new cases. 1049 new deaths.

Total cases (tested): 215,003
Total deaths: 5,102

Texas:
March 30: 2,906 cases. 41 deaths.
March 31: 3,666 cases. 56 deaths.
April 1: 4,068 cases. 60 deaths

New York:
March 30: 67,325 cases. 1,342 deaths.
March 31: 75,983 cases. 1,714 deaths.
April 1: 83,901 cases. 2,219 deaths. (505 today!)

New York is a problem. No other way to say it. In fact the 5 or 7 county area of NYC and into NJ is the force majeure driving these massive increases. Whatever measures they've taken aren't working.

If you look at the logged data, it does appear the rate of increase in the number of new cases per day is beginning to flatten just a touch. Maybe some hope.

This is a nightmare.

ATL Bear said:

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Updated virus progression

March 19: 4,530 new cases, 57 new deaths
March 20: 5,594 new cases, 49 new deaths
March 21: 4,824 new cases, 46 new deaths
March 22: 9,339 new cases. 117 new deaths
March 23: 10,168 new cases. 140 new deaths.
March 24: 11,089 new cases. 225 new deaths.
March 25: 13,355 new cases. 247 new deaths.
March 26: 17,224 new cases. 268 new deaths.
March 27: 18,691 new cases. 401 new deaths.
March 28: 19,452 new cases. 525 new deaths
March 29: 18,882 new cases. 264 new deaths
March 30: 20,353 new cases. 573 new deaths.
March 31: 24,742 new cases. 912 new deaths.
April 1: 26,473 new cases. 1049 new deaths.

Total cases (tested): 215,003
Total deaths: 5,102

Texas:
March 30: 2,906 cases. 41 deaths.
March 31: 3,666 cases. 56 deaths.
April 1: 4,068 cases. 60 deaths

New York:
March 30: 67,325 cases. 1,342 deaths.
March 31: 75,983 cases. 1,714 deaths.
April 1: 83,901 cases. 2,219 deaths. (505 today!)

New York is a problem. No other way to say it. In fact the 5 or 7 county area of NYC and into NJ is the force majeure driving these massive increases. Whatever measures they've taken aren't working.

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New York's numbers are insane. Just their numbers alone would be enough for 4th most cases and 8th most deaths worldwide.