Doc Holliday said:

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Booray said:

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Doc Holliday said:

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Booray said:

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Doc Holliday said:

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The mask mandates don't make any sense.

Anything other than N95 is pointless. Most people I see out in public are wearing cloth masks and bandanas. The particles go right through it.

The stupidity of this world is unbelievable.

---

I can see why you had the perfect SAT score.

From reading your posts I have gleaned that somehow you have more knowledge about virus transmission that the world's leading infectious disease doctors, understand criminal and mandamus procedure better than leading legal scholars, have better insight into national intelligence procedures than former CIA directors and Directors of National Intelligence and can see how Nobel prize-winning economists just don't understand the modern economy.

I bet you can even fold a fitted sheet.

---

Do you have proof cloth masks are effective against C19?

The vast majority do not have N95 masks. That's a problem right?

When the worlds leading doctors are wrong...who is right?

You have bad tendency to argue form authority and outright believe people because of their credentials, even when they're completely wrong.

How about you start believing facts. Stop believing people simply because they have "authority" on the issue. People are wrong more often than not.

---

The post I responded to was 100% your opinion. Do as I say, not as I do?

I don't pretend to be an infectious disease doctor. But my common sense yes me that a cloth barrier reduces the distance a respiratory droplet will travel. By definition, that reduction is helpful.

It doesn't hurt. And people who know a lot more about it agree.

Let's hear your argument for why masks should not be worn when one is indoors and likely to be within 6 feet of people you do not know.

---

Why would you assume it's opinion?

There is no scientific evidence that cloth masks are effective in reducing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. ZERO EVIDENCE.

The particles are so small they can get through the cloth.

This is the whole point of N95...which is the mask type I wear.

When did I say I was against masks altogether? I didn't. You assumed.

If we're going to have mandated face mask law then we need to make sure everyone is using N95. That's my position.

---

I would assume it was opinion because it was only conclusion; not proof of anything you styled as a fact.

As for evidence on the efficacy of cloth masks, there are these for starters:

https://theconversation.com/masks-help-stop-the-spread-of-coronavirus-the-science-is-simple-and-im-one-of-100-experts-urging-governors-to-require-public-mask-wearing-138507

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200403132345.htm

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-masks-science/masks-do-reduce-spread-of-flu-and-some-coronaviruses-study-finds-idUSKBN21L2BW

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340603522_Face_Masks_Against_COVID-19_An_Evidence_Review

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8339717/Face-masks-curb-spread-coronavirus-75-study-claims.html

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext

Someone posted a great podcast about masks from people who actually conducted tests regarding N95 masks and cloth masks etc. The conclusions were clearly N95 surgical masks had an impact. That's why they work for medical staff. The rest were inconclusive no difference, or unknown. The big issue with cloth masks is that they actually absorb moisture and not filter it, which creates a unique combination of protection and risk. The other conclusion on masks was that we as humans are the problem because we don't behave how you should when wearing a mask, meaning we touch our face, lower it and pull it back up, etc., unlike how a surgeon or healthcare worker would, which includes proper hand sanitation while wearing it to prevent viral collection when fiddling with our masks.

Doc Holliday said:

---

Booray said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

The mask mandates don't make any sense.

Anything other than N95 is pointless. Most people I see out in public are wearing cloth masks and bandanas. The particles go right through it.

The stupidity of this world is unbelievable.

---

I can see why you had the perfect SAT score.

From reading your posts I have gleaned that somehow you have more knowledge about virus transmission that the world's leading infectious disease doctors, understand criminal and mandamus procedure better than leading legal scholars, have better insight into national intelligence procedures than former CIA directors and Directors of National Intelligence and can see how Nobel prize-winning economists just don't understand the modern economy.

I bet you can even fold a fitted sheet.

---

Do you have proof cloth masks are effective against C19?

The vast majority do not have N95 masks. That's a problem right?

When the worlds leading doctors are wrong...who is right?

You have bad tendency to argue form authority and outright believe people because of their credentials, even when they're completely wrong.

How about you start believing facts. Stop believing people simply because they have "authority" on the issue. People are wrong more often than not.

---

Yep, agree.

I remember back in 2009 when the experts were saying that polar ice caps would melt in 5-7 years.

It's 2020, the ice caps are still here.

Also, at the beginning of the "crisis"... didn't the "experts" say that masks wouldn't help and that coronavirus wasn't transmitted human to human? Sooooo, were they lying then or are they lying now?

ATL Bear said:

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Someone posted a great podcast about masks from people who actually conducted tests regarding N95 masks and cloth masks etc. The conclusions were clearly N95 surgical masks had an impact. That's why they work for medical staff. The rest were inconclusive no difference, or unknown. The big issue with cloth masks is that they actually absorb moisture and not filter it, which creates a unique combination of protection and risk. The other conclusion on masks was that we as humans are the problem because we don't behave how you should when wearing a mask, meaning we touch our face, lower it and pull it back up, etc., unlike how a surgeon or healthcare worker would, which includes proper hand sanitation while wearing it to prevent viral collection when fiddling with our masks.

---

What is the risk? If the mask absorbs my covid positive respiratory droplets and I re-breathe it--so what? I am already positive. I am not arguing, just don't understand.

As to the second part, it seems like those things speak to reduced effectiveness, not complete ineffectiveness. No one is saying just wearing a mask is the answer, it clearly falls behind frequent hand washing and social distancing in terms of proven effectiveness. The question is why not wear a mask if it reduces the rate of transmission even somewhat?

That's such an intellectually weak argument. By cherry picking mistakes and poor reporting, while using technology, you are basically saying experts are wrong. Until they're right. What kind of metric is that?

Booray said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Someone posted a great podcast about masks from people who actually conducted tests regarding N95 masks and cloth masks etc. The conclusions were clearly N95 surgical masks had an impact. That's why they work for medical staff. The rest were inconclusive no difference, or unknown. The big issue with cloth masks is that they actually absorb moisture and not filter it, which creates a unique combination of protection and risk. The other conclusion on masks was that we as humans are the problem because we don't behave how you should when wearing a mask, meaning we touch our face, lower it and pull it back up, etc., unlike how a surgeon or healthcare worker would, which includes proper hand sanitation while wearing it to prevent viral collection when fiddling with our masks.

---

What is the risk? If the mask absorbs my covid positive respiratory droplets and I re-breathe it--so what? I am already positive. I am not arguing, just don't understand.

As to the second part, it seems like those things speak to reduced effectiveness, not complete ineffectiveness. No one is saying just wearing a mask is the answer, it clearly falls behind frequent hand washing and social distancing in terms of proven effectiveness. The question is why not wear a mask if it reduces the rate of transmission even somewhat?

---

Because it remains on the mask and a) as you continually breath in and out it expels them. b) when you touch the mask it gets on your hand and everywhere else you touch. It is the different material and folds that make the N95 effective as it creates a filtering maze that captures the virus particles (85% in the studies so not even completely). Finally, It also absorbs external droplets (from others) that get soaked into the cloth material and you can breath them in.

quash said:

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That's such an intellectually weak argument. By cherry picking mistakes and poor reporting, while using technology, you are basically saying experts are wrong. Until they're right. What kind of metric is that?

---

Eh, facts are facts. Fact is that the "experts" are never 100% right and liberals are often wrong.

HashTag said:

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quash said:

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That's such an intellectually weak argument. By cherry picking mistakes and poor reporting, while using technology, you are basically saying experts are wrong. Until they're right. What kind of metric is that?

---

Eh, facts are facts. Fact is that the "experts" are never 100% right and liberals are often wrong.

---

I laughed when quash made such a deal of cherry-picking, when so many of his arguments do just that.

But with that said, in the context of the virus a mask is a mask Anything that restricts the liquid droplets which can fly out of someone's mouth will be a useful barrier in preventing the spread of infection. But no mask matters when someone is not infected, as is the case for most people.

It's a social grace, and a good idea, but unless you are visiting elderly relatives or coming into people known to be sick or at risk, not something anyone should be screaming about.

Consider the source, another limp wristed liberal male

Jack Bauer said:

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FFS - Memorial Day is not about thanking healthcare workers. This is a day for our war dead - period.

---

You're remembering our childhood. Each passing year we seem to get further and further away from honoring those who gave all.

TAPS has a FB group. I joined when one of my HS friend died when his plane went down in SW Asia.

You want some sobering reality go read their posts from Memorial Day. So many names, so many suicides from PTSD, so many KIA.

https://www.facebook.com/TAPSorg/?__tn__=%2CdHH-R-R&eid=ARBrpVvwRAVKrSDqKKV2z0dMEfGoppPFn2S2AuuEnvVMet5bNG90mPdPevtBo8ebeDLY0axGSvAKBVUV&fref=tag

nein51 said:

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TAPS has a FB group. I joined when one of my HS friend died when his plane went down in SW Asia.

You want some sobering reality go read their posts from Memorial Day. So many names, so many suicides from PTSD, so many KIA.

https://www.facebook.com/TAPSorg/?__tn__=%2CdHH-R-R&eid=ARBrpVvwRAVKrSDqKKV2z0dMEfGoppPFn2S2AuuEnvVMet5bNG90mPdPevtBo8ebeDLY0axGSvAKBVUV&fref=tag

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Thank you.

No need to thank me, I didnt do a damned thing. I grew up around and worked side by side with service men and women, that's it. My great grandfather's served, my grandfather's served (one losing both of his legs as a medevac helicopter pilot in Korea), my dad served, so many of my classmates served (which will happen when you go to a military boarding school)...but not me, I didnt like being told what to do.

TAPS is a great organization for healing, it's like group therapy for survivors. They also help to take care of their own.

Uh...oh.

"We are about to see the best economic data we've seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-52792769?fbclid=IwAR3O_aWR2WeYGJ6kITpNsK3anEB48OmajoXQRy5X42pmzbs5SzJEZeTZ7PY

Coronavirus: Schools in England reopening on 1 June confirmed, PM says

Jack Bauer said:

---

Uh...oh.

"We are about to see the best economic data we've seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470

---

The eagerness to get out + the stimulus checks are going to give us massive and quick economic gains.

Q3 will probably give us the best GDP quarter in modern history.

Doc Holliday said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

Uh...oh.

"We are about to see the best economic data we've seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470

---

The eagerness to get out + the stimulus checks are going to give us massive and quick economic gains.

Q3 will probably give us the best GDP quarter in modern history.

---

Doc, I would scale back a little bit to avoid disappointment. The "eagerness to get out" is not shared by probably a third or more of the population that fall into the most at-risk population.....people over 65 and those with underlying conditions. That probably doesn't even account for much less at-risk people who in their families are reluctant in fear of bringing it home to older parents and such that are living with them. It is going to be a while before this group goes back whole hog as long as there is no treatment or convincing signs that the virus has played itself out. Especially when they see crowds of people doing their best to transmit any virus they may be carrying to everyone they can because of their refusal to even consider any transmission precautions.

Without this group of people, it is not reasonable to expect the economy to get back anywhere near where it was. The unemployment numbers will still be abysmal. The stimulus checks.......they have already been spent, unless you are going to send out a whole bunch more. The younger people who are so eager to get out don't have the income or means to make up for those that will be able, but choose not to get out with anything close to their behavior pre-virus.

The only thing you might see is the difference between Q2 and Q3. That could be quite a bit in some areas, but that will only be a relative figure compared to a horrible Q2. Nothing anywhere near the "best GDP quarter in modern history". You have to look at absolutes, not relative comparisons.

Might deserve it's own thread

How Fear, Groupthink Drove Unnecessary Global Lockdowns

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/21/how_fear_groupthink_drove_unnecessary_global_lockdowns_143253.html?fbclid=IwAR0ONpxTfxRkO1IslNOqkEVjRhKu_4J0UhxpqHq7IkmbqHMw3LHOtFFr7iM

New York City reached over a 25% infection rate and yet 99.98% of all people in the city under 45 survived,

... we put billions of young healthy people under house arrest, stopped cancer screenings, and sunk ourselves into the worst level of unemployment since the Great Depression. This from a virus that bears a survival rate of 99.99% if you are a healthy individual under 50 years old (1, 2).


...Sweden never closed down borders, primary schools, restaurants, or businesses, and never mandated masks, yet 99.998% of all their people under 60 have survived and their hospitals were never overburdened.

... Below is a screenshot of the IHME model for Sweden taken on May 3, along with actual results (black line). The model predicted up to 2,800 daily deaths within 11 days and a final death total as high as 75,000 if Sweden didn't enact strict social distancing measures.

blackie said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

Uh...oh.

"We are about to see the best economic data we've seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470

---

The eagerness to get out + the stimulus checks are going to give us massive and quick economic gains.

Q3 will probably give us the best GDP quarter in modern history.

---

Doc, I would scale back a little bit to avoid disappointment. The "eagerness to get out" is not shared by probably a third or more of the population that fall into the most at-risk population.....people over 65 and those with underlying conditions. That probably doesn't even account for much less at-risk people who in their families are reluctant in fear of bringing it home to older parents and such that are living with them. It is going to be a while before this group goes back whole hog as long as there is no treatment or convincing signs that the virus has played itself out. Especially when they see crowds of people doing their best to transmit any virus they may be carrying to everyone they can because of their refusal to even consider any transmission precautions.

Without this group of people, it is not reasonable to expect the economy to get back anywhere near where it was. The unemployment numbers will still be abysmal. The stimulus checks.......they have already been spent, unless you are going to send out a whole bunch more. The younger people who are so eager to get out don't have the income or means to make up for those that will be able, but choose not to get out with anything close to their behavior pre-virus.

The only thing you might see is the difference between Q2 and Q3. That could be quite a bit in some areas, but that will only be a relative figure compared to a horrible Q2. Nothing anywhere near the "best GDP quarter in modern history". You have to look at absolutes, not relative comparisons.

---

My reasoning is that the bigger the fall the bigger the recovery. Not necessarily exceptionalism.

I'm not stating the GDP will be the best it's been but the ratio of it getting better might be the best. Unemployment might be terrible still, but the drop will be massive I suspect. That's a good trend leading into Q4 and next year.

It's pointless to look at absolutes when we all know this is bad for the economy.

Doc Holliday said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

Uh...oh.

"We are about to see the best economic data we've seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470

---

The eagerness to get out + the stimulus checks are going to give us massive and quick economic gains.

Q3 will probably give us the best GDP quarter in modern history.

---

Someone correct me if i'm wrong but it looks like the number to beat is from the 1940's WW2 period or 4q 1950.

I can't find quarterly GDP changes for WW2 era. Maybe a better googler can. Link below has quarterly tracking beginning in 1948 and prior to that annual.

4th Q: Dec 31, 1950 13.37%

Annual GDP changes WW2
Dec 31, 1943 17.02%
Dec 31, 1942 18.88%
Dec 31, 1941 17.71%

https://www.multpl.com/us-real-gdp-growth-rate/table/by-quarter

Jacques Strap said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

Uh...oh.

"We are about to see the best economic data we've seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470

---

The eagerness to get out + the stimulus checks are going to give us massive and quick economic gains.

Q3 will probably give us the best GDP quarter in modern history.

---

Someone correct me if i'm wrong but it looks like the number to beat is from the 1940's WW2 period or 4q 1950.

I can't find quarterly GDP changes for WW2 era. Maybe a better googler can. Link below has quarterly tracking beginning in 1948 and prior to that annual.

4th Q: Dec 31, 1950 13.37%

Annual GDP changes WW2
Dec 31, 1943 17.02%
Dec 31, 1942 18.88%
Dec 31, 1941 17.71%

https://www.multpl.com/us-real-gdp-growth-rate/table/by-quarter

---

Its not going to be annual for sure.

Just looking at the best improvement for a single quarter.

Doc Holliday said:

---

blackie said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

Uh...oh.

"We are about to see the best economic data we've seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470

---

The eagerness to get out + the stimulus checks are going to give us massive and quick economic gains.

Q3 will probably give us the best GDP quarter in modern history.

---

Doc, I would scale back a little bit to avoid disappointment. The "eagerness to get out" is not shared by probably a third or more of the population that fall into the most at-risk population.....people over 65 and those with underlying conditions. That probably doesn't even account for much less at-risk people who in their families are reluctant in fear of bringing it home to older parents and such that are living with them. It is going to be a while before this group goes back whole hog as long as there is no treatment or convincing signs that the virus has played itself out. Especially when they see crowds of people doing their best to transmit any virus they may be carrying to everyone they can because of their refusal to even consider any transmission precautions.

Without this group of people, it is not reasonable to expect the economy to get back anywhere near where it was. The unemployment numbers will still be abysmal. The stimulus checks.......they have already been spent, unless you are going to send out a whole bunch more. The younger people who are so eager to get out don't have the income or means to make up for those that will be able, but choose not to get out with anything close to their behavior pre-virus.

The only thing you might see is the difference between Q2 and Q3. That could be quite a bit in some areas, but that will only be a relative figure compared to a horrible Q2. Nothing anywhere near the "best GDP quarter in modern history". You have to look at absolutes, not relative comparisons.

---

My reasoning is that the bigger the fall the bigger the recovery. Not necessarily exceptionalism.

I'm not stating the GDP will be the best it's been but the ratio of it getting better might be the best. Unemployment might be terrible still, but the drop will be massive I suspect. That's a good trend leading into Q4 and next year.

It's pointless to look at absolutes when we all know this is bad for the economy.

---

Regression to the mean, basically.

quash said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

blackie said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

Uh...oh.

"We are about to see the best economic data we've seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470

---

The eagerness to get out + the stimulus checks are going to give us massive and quick economic gains.

Q3 will probably give us the best GDP quarter in modern history.

---

Doc, I would scale back a little bit to avoid disappointment. The "eagerness to get out" is not shared by probably a third or more of the population that fall into the most at-risk population.....people over 65 and those with underlying conditions. That probably doesn't even account for much less at-risk people who in their families are reluctant in fear of bringing it home to older parents and such that are living with them. It is going to be a while before this group goes back whole hog as long as there is no treatment or convincing signs that the virus has played itself out. Especially when they see crowds of people doing their best to transmit any virus they may be carrying to everyone they can because of their refusal to even consider any transmission precautions.

Without this group of people, it is not reasonable to expect the economy to get back anywhere near where it was. The unemployment numbers will still be abysmal. The stimulus checks.......they have already been spent, unless you are going to send out a whole bunch more. The younger people who are so eager to get out don't have the income or means to make up for those that will be able, but choose not to get out with anything close to their behavior pre-virus.

The only thing you might see is the difference between Q2 and Q3. That could be quite a bit in some areas, but that will only be a relative figure compared to a horrible Q2. Nothing anywhere near the "best GDP quarter in modern history". You have to look at absolutes, not relative comparisons.

---

My reasoning is that the bigger the fall the bigger the recovery. Not necessarily exceptionalism.

I'm not stating the GDP will be the best it's been but the ratio of it getting better might be the best. Unemployment might be terrible still, but the drop will be massive I suspect. That's a good trend leading into Q4 and next year.

It's pointless to look at absolutes when we all know this is bad for the economy.

---

Regression to the mean, basically.

---

You do love buzz words, quash.

I think the economy will have surprises, good and bad, for the rest of this year. But simple assumptions would be a mistake, in any direction.

... getting restless in NYC which is still in lockdown.
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

Only 1 person in the entire USA died from Covid under 25yrs old last week. Time to open it all up

Why can't the people not complain until after the electric?

Democrats will require mail in voting to win don't ya know?

quash said:

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Oldbear83 said:

---

quash said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

blackie said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

Uh...oh.

"We are about to see the best economic data we've seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470

---

The eagerness to get out + the stimulus checks are going to give us massive and quick economic gains.

Q3 will probably give us the best GDP quarter in modern history.

---

Doc, I would scale back a little bit to avoid disappointment. The "eagerness to get out" is not shared by probably a third or more of the population that fall into the most at-risk population.....people over 65 and those with underlying conditions. That probably doesn't even account for much less at-risk people who in their families are reluctant in fear of bringing it home to older parents and such that are living with them. It is going to be a while before this group goes back whole hog as long as there is no treatment or convincing signs that the virus has played itself out. Especially when they see crowds of people doing their best to transmit any virus they may be carrying to everyone they can because of their refusal to even consider any transmission precautions.

Without this group of people, it is not reasonable to expect the economy to get back anywhere near where it was. The unemployment numbers will still be abysmal. The stimulus checks.......they have already been spent, unless you are going to send out a whole bunch more. The younger people who are so eager to get out don't have the income or means to make up for those that will be able, but choose not to get out with anything close to their behavior pre-virus.

The only thing you might see is the difference between Q2 and Q3. That could be quite a bit in some areas, but that will only be a relative figure compared to a horrible Q2. Nothing anywhere near the "best GDP quarter in modern history". You have to look at absolutes, not relative comparisons.

---

My reasoning is that the bigger the fall the bigger the recovery. Not necessarily exceptionalism.

I'm not stating the GDP will be the best it's been but the ratio of it getting better might be the best. Unemployment might be terrible still, but the drop will be massive I suspect. That's a good trend leading into Q4 and next year.

It's pointless to look at absolutes when we all know this is bad for the economy.

---

Regression to the mean, basically.

---

You do love buzz words, quash.

I think the economy will have surprises, good and bad, for the rest of this year. But simple assumptions would be a mistake, in any direction.

---

A buzzword is something that loses its meaning through repetition. Regression to the mean is a statistics concept.

But thanks for those two fortune cookie bonus sentences, you saved me a trip to the buffet.

---

Cool story, quash. Using a cliched phrase as you did also 'loses its meaning through repetition', so I stand by my post.

I certainly understand that you are struggling with the content.

Oldbear83 said:

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quash said:

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Oldbear83 said:

---

quash said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

blackie said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

Uh...oh.

"We are about to see the best economic data we've seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470

---

The eagerness to get out + the stimulus checks are going to give us massive and quick economic gains.

Q3 will probably give us the best GDP quarter in modern history.

---

Doc, I would scale back a little bit to avoid disappointment. The "eagerness to get out" is not shared by probably a third or more of the population that fall into the most at-risk population.....people over 65 and those with underlying conditions. That probably doesn't even account for much less at-risk people who in their families are reluctant in fear of bringing it home to older parents and such that are living with them. It is going to be a while before this group goes back whole hog as long as there is no treatment or convincing signs that the virus has played itself out. Especially when they see crowds of people doing their best to transmit any virus they may be carrying to everyone they can because of their refusal to even consider any transmission precautions.

Without this group of people, it is not reasonable to expect the economy to get back anywhere near where it was. The unemployment numbers will still be abysmal. The stimulus checks.......they have already been spent, unless you are going to send out a whole bunch more. The younger people who are so eager to get out don't have the income or means to make up for those that will be able, but choose not to get out with anything close to their behavior pre-virus.

The only thing you might see is the difference between Q2 and Q3. That could be quite a bit in some areas, but that will only be a relative figure compared to a horrible Q2. Nothing anywhere near the "best GDP quarter in modern history". You have to look at absolutes, not relative comparisons.

---

My reasoning is that the bigger the fall the bigger the recovery. Not necessarily exceptionalism.

I'm not stating the GDP will be the best it's been but the ratio of it getting better might be the best. Unemployment might be terrible still, but the drop will be massive I suspect. That's a good trend leading into Q4 and next year.

It's pointless to look at absolutes when we all know this is bad for the economy.

---

Regression to the mean, basically.

---

You do love buzz words, quash.

I think the economy will have surprises, good and bad, for the rest of this year. But simple assumptions would be a mistake, in any direction.

---

A buzzword is something that loses its meaning through repetition. Regression to the mean is a statistics concept.

But thanks for those two fortune cookie bonus sentences, you saved me a trip to the buffet.

---

Cool story, quash. Using a cliched phrase as you did also 'loses its meaning through repetition', so I stand by my post.

I certainly understand that you are struggling with the content.

---

I don't know what circles you run in but regression towards the mean is not a cliche where I come from. I hear it maybe twice a year.

"Cool story", now there's a cliche.

quash said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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quash said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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quash said:

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Regression to the mean, basically.

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You do love buzz words, quash.

I think the economy will have surprises, good and bad, for the rest of this year. But simple assumptions would be a mistake, in any direction.

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A buzzword is something that loses its meaning through repetition. Regression to the mean is a statistics concept.

But thanks for those two fortune cookie bonus sentences, you saved me a trip to the buffet.

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Cool story, quash. Using a cliched phrase as you did also 'loses its meaning through repetition', so I stand by my post.

I certainly understand that you are struggling with the content.

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I don't know what circles you run in but regression towards the mean is not a cliche where I come from. I hear it maybe twice a year.

"Cool story", now there's a cliche.

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Yes it is, and it was appropriate, a cliche to address a cliche.

I see 'regression to the mean' in a lot of internet forums. People use it when they want to sound savvy without actually having to prove anything.

But I am hardly surprised to see you - as usual - deny in reflex. Almost as predictable as you tossing off insults while claiming I am guilty of it, which should come around again your next post or two.

Data from Italy regarding the most at risk and least at risk populations.

https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/05/27/italy-96-of-coronavirus-fatalities-had-other-chronic-illnesses/

ROME The overwhelming majority of deaths with coronavirus in Italy have occurred in the presence of two or more serious chronic illnesses, according to a report from the country's national health authority (ISS).

Italian health authorities announced in a recent report that only 4.1 percent of fatalities testing positive for Wuhan coronavirus happened in the absence of serious comorbidities, while the average age of the deceased was over 80 years.

The average number of comorbidities among all Italian deaths with the coronavirus was 3.1, ISS revealed. Just 15 percent of fatalities occurred with the presence of just one other serious pathology, while 21.4 percent died with two other pathologies, and 59.6 percent with three or more pathologies.

The most common comorbidities were arterial hypertension (in 68.3 percent of cases), type-2 diabetes (30.1 percent of cases), ischemic heart disease (in 28.2 percent), atrial fibrillation (22.5 percent), chronic renal failure (20.4 percent).

The report also revealed an average age of 81 among those who have died with coronavirus in Italy. One of the most astonishing findings of the report was that only 1.1 percent of all coronavirus deaths in the country happened to people below the age of 50, while more than 57 percent were over 80.

Context: The life expectancy for Italy in 2019 was 83.42 years,

Disney World sets reopening date

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/27/media/disney-world-open-coronavirus/index.html

New York (CNN Business)Disney World will reopen its gates, ending a multi-month closure of the park that left the Walt Disney Company reeling.

The Disney theme park, which employs some 70,000 people, plans to begin a phased reopening on July 11 for its Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom parks and July 15 for EPCOT and Hollywood Studios, the company said on Wednesday.

Walt Disney World as well as Disney's Disneyland resort in Anaheim, California, closed in mid-March because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Disney is implementing several measures to reopen safely and prevent the spread of the coronavirus at its parks