Call it: How many US deaths from COVID-19, and why?

33,973 Views | 280 Replies | Last: 4 days ago by Realitybites
Canada2017
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LTbear said:

Canada2017 said:

LTbear said:

BaylorTaxman said:

Canada2017 said:

Wife and I drove to Estes Park today .

Gorgeous mountain scenery as usual...but the town was almost empty . Rocky Mountain National Park...closed .

Shops, hotels , restaurants all closed .

Was deeply unsettling. Brings home the point that if the virus continues.....we will enter the worst economic depression in our history .

Trump has some massive choices to make . And people will die either way .



Estes Park is one of my favorite places in the world. I was planning on taking the Airstream back there this summer. I hope this thing is over by then, but not looking good right now.


Estes is gorgeous, though often crowded in summer. If you've never been, I'd highly recommend Ouray, Silverton, Durango, Telluride, etc. The San Juan Mountains are the prettiest and wildest part of Colorado. One of my favorite spots on earth.


Estes Park is only about 45 minutes from my house...

Lucky *******


Luck had nothing to do with it !
LTbear
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Canada2017 said:

LTbear said:

Canada2017 said:

LTbear said:

BaylorTaxman said:

Canada2017 said:

Wife and I drove to Estes Park today .

Gorgeous mountain scenery as usual...but the town was almost empty . Rocky Mountain National Park...closed .

Shops, hotels , restaurants all closed .

Was deeply unsettling. Brings home the point that if the virus continues.....we will enter the worst economic depression in our history .

Trump has some massive choices to make . And people will die either way .



Estes Park is one of my favorite places in the world. I was planning on taking the Airstream back there this summer. I hope this thing is over by then, but not looking good right now.


Estes is gorgeous, though often crowded in summer. If you've never been, I'd highly recommend Ouray, Silverton, Durango, Telluride, etc. The San Juan Mountains are the prettiest and wildest part of Colorado. One of my favorite spots on earth.


Estes Park is only about 45 minutes from my house...

Lucky *******


Luck had nothing to do with it !


Fair point. My wife and I are currently going through the process of finding our long-term home, and we're likewise being extremely choosy in regards to location (the Rocky Mountain or Pacific Northwest states only for us).
Canada2017
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The Front Range suffers from air pollution now .

Been a great ride these last 27 years but it's time to move on.

Hope to be either in Sisters Oregon or Whitefish Montana within 2 years.

At least during the summers .

If it wasn't for the reduction in air quality ( began 3 years ago ) during the summers ...would rate this area the best in the world .
LTbear
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Canada2017 said:

The Front Range suffers from air pollution now .

Been a great ride these last 27 years but it's time to move on.

Hope to be either in Sisters Oregon or Whitefish Montana within 2 years.

At least during the summers .

If it wasn't for the reduction in air quality ( began 3 years ago ) during the summers ...would rate this area the best in the world .


The Front Range (where we met, she grew up, and I spent 7 years) is indeed a bit overcrowded for us now. We're looking at smaller to mid-size towns.

If you can, my advice is always to pick a place you want to live year-round. Owning a summer home in many places drives up prices for the locals and contributes to unnecessary degradation of the natural environment in those areas. And it's something so, so many people do nowadays.
Canada2017
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There is no way we would be happy leaving our grandsons full time .

Making money was a necessity....hiking/rafting a real adventure....but the focal point of our lives now is family .
Florda_mike
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LTbear said:

BaylorTaxman said:

Canada2017 said:

Wife and I drove to Estes Park today .

Gorgeous mountain scenery as usual...but the town was almost empty . Rocky Mountain National Park...closed .

Shops, hotels , restaurants all closed .

Was deeply unsettling. Brings home the point that if the virus continues.....we will enter the worst economic depression in our history .

Trump has some massive choices to make . And people will die either way .



Estes Park is one of my favorite places in the world. I was planning on taking the Airstream back there this summer. I hope this thing is over by then, but not looking good right now.


Estes is gorgeous, though often crowded in summer. If you've never been, I'd highly recommend Ouray, Silverton, Durango, Telluride, etc. The San Juan Mountains are the prettiest and wildest part of Colorado. One of my favorite spots on earth.


^^^ Wow on this we can certainly agree

Beautiful area
BearTruth13
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Buddha Bear said:

BearTruth13 said:

Florda_mike said:

Is it 61 now and 40 in Washington state? That's what I last read and most in Washington state are in a nursing home that had a previous $145,000,000 penalty for fraud!!!

Seems majorly cases are in democrat states which seems suspicious. Fake News all?

Oh well as regular flu deaths rapidly increase over 20,000 I'm guessing 450 coronavirus deaths thanks to swift actions of President Trump!!!

Sic em Trump
Aged like fine wine


2 more weeks and we'll all be sipping from the finest vintage here.
It is indeed the finest vintage.

450 projected vs the current 33,000+. Just great forecasting.
Shakesbear
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Shakesbear said:

The typical flu affects 5-20% of the US population on average every year.

Let's say 5% of the US population get the novel coronavirus this year;

The typical flu kills roughly .01% of people who contract it, and in the worst case scenario, the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, killed about 2% of those who contracted it;

There are roughly 350 million people in the US now, so let's use the lowest end of the spectrum on how many people typically get the flue, 5%;

That would give us 17.5 million cases of coronavirus;

The lowest end statistic on the number of deaths would be .01% X 17.5 million = 17,500 deaths;

The highest end statistic on the number of deaths would be 2% X 17.5 million = 350,000 deaths;

As of today, worldwide, there have been 286,955 cases of coronavirus reported, and 11,980 deaths = 4.2% death rate;

There in lies the rub.
Well, so much for my "low end" estimate of 17,500 deaths (projected over a full year: we are now over 30K in only one quarter!). Let's just hope we don't get to my "high end" estimate. Be safe out there, wash ya' damn hands, and make like Bobby Banditio
Retreat Hell! We just got here! The 2/5
blackie
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Canada2017 said:

There is no way we would be happy leaving our grandsons full time .

Making money was a necessity....hiking/rafting a real adventure....but the focal point of our lives now is family .
I might add that unfortunately access to adequate healthcare has always got to be considered, at least at my age. There are places where we would love to live, but if the nearest adequate hospital is an hour or more away and specialists are distant, that is a non-starter. I've been in good health all my life, but as we age things start happening regardless of how "right" you have tried to live over the years.
Canada2017
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blackie said:

Canada2017 said:

There is no way we would be happy leaving our grandsons full time .

Making money was a necessity....hiking/rafting a real adventure....but the focal point of our lives now is family .
I might add that unfortunately access to adequate healthcare has always got to be considered, at least at my age. There are places where we would love to live, but if the nearest adequate hospital is an hour or more away and specialists are distant, that is a non-starter. I've been in good health all my life, but as we age things start happening regardless of how "right" you have tried to live over the years.


You are right.

My wife has told me the exact same thing many times .

But the overwhelming issue is our grandkids. They have become the number 1 source of happiness in our lives .

No way we will ever willingly leave them.

Shakesbear
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blackie said:

Canada2017 said:

There is no way we would be happy leaving our grandsons full time .

Making money was a necessity....hiking/rafting a real adventure....but the focal point of our lives now is family .
I might add that unfortunately access to adequate healthcare has always got to be considered, at least at my age. There are places where we would love to live, but if the nearest adequate hospital is an hour or more away and specialists are distant, that is a non-starter. I've been in good health all my life, but as we age things start happening regardless of how "right" you have tried to live over the years.
I've though this out as well I do a lot of work in far west Texas, Davis Mountains area. It's beautiful and peaceful out there, and I would love to live out there. The only drawback? If you get bit by a rattler, thrown from your horse in the back valley, or have a stroke, you're dead. No way even a helicopter could reach you in time. The far west and remote areas are for the heartiest of soles who don't care when or where they die. Just part of life
Retreat Hell! We just got here! The 2/5
ValhallaBear
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Florda_mike
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Shakesbear said:

blackie said:

Canada2017 said:

There is no way we would be happy leaving our grandsons full time .

Making money was a necessity....hiking/rafting a real adventure....but the focal point of our lives now is family .
I might add that unfortunately access to adequate healthcare has always got to be considered, at least at my age. There are places where we would love to live, but if the nearest adequate hospital is an hour or more away and specialists are distant, that is a non-starter. I've been in good health all my life, but as we age things start happening regardless of how "right" you have tried to live over the years.
I've though this out as well I do a lot of work in far west Texas, Davis Mountains area. It's beautiful and peaceful out there, and I would love to live out there. The only drawback? If you get bit by a rattler, thrown from your horse in the back valley, or have a stroke, you're dead. No way even a helicopter could reach you in time. The far west and remote areas are for the heartiest of soles who don't care when or where they die. Just part of life


Interesting thoughts ^^^
Florda_mike
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ValhallaBear said:




TS doesn't "get it"
Bearitto
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Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
My goodness, but this post aged well.
quash
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Florda_mike said:

ValhallaBear said:




TS doesn't "get it"
The skydiver didn't forget his parachute. He took it off too soon.
“Life, liberty, and property do not exist because men have made laws. On the contrary, it was the fact that life, liberty, and property existed beforehand that caused men to make laws in the first place.” (The Law, p.6) Frederic Bastiat
PacificBear
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BaylorBJM said:

Bearitto said:

BaylorBJM said:

Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
Your last sentence is somewhat ambiguous so I wanted to clarify, are you suggesting as the supposed "rationalist" you're one of the crazies who believes Covid19 was created in a Chinese research lab?


Don't project. The virus was created in Wuhan either by disgusting Chinese cultural practices of eating road kill or by lazy hygiene at the Wuhan disease control center. It's a Chinese created virus. No I don't think they engineered it.
Understood. Not projecting, simply a genuine question given the way you phrased it. I don't really agree with anything else you typed but at the very least I'm glad you're not one of the conspiracy theorists.
Canon
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BaylorBJM said:

Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
Your last sentence is somewhat ambiguous so I wanted to clarify, are you suggesting as the supposed "rationalist" you're one of the crazies who believes Covid19 was created in a Chinese research lab?


Aged poorly...
BellCountyBear
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BaylorBJM said:

Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
Your last sentence is somewhat ambiguous so I wanted to clarify, are you suggesting as the supposed "rationalist" you're one of the crazies who believes Covid19 was created in a Chinese research lab?
Well, duh.
Porteroso
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Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
So you're also proudly a piece of ***** **** you, and thank god for the ignore function, so I won't have to read any more of your idiotic drivel.


Stop acting like a spoiled child. Decisions have real world consequences and harm real people. Fewer people will be hurt for a shorter time if the virus just burns through. Economic damage will be less. Grow up.

Decisions definitely have consequences, and you are saying you'd rather us preserve people's money, than their very lives. Yeah death is a consequence. You're so unaware its funny.
BaylorBJM
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Canon said:

BaylorBJM said:

Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
Your last sentence is somewhat ambiguous so I wanted to clarify, are you suggesting as the supposed "rationalist" you're one of the crazies who believes Covid19 was created in a Chinese research lab?


Aged poorly...


Yep. I actually bumped something similar a few weeks ago calling myself out for potentially being wrong on thinking it wasn't a lab leak.

Once new and tangible evidence began to present itself, I reassessed, looked at all sides, and admitted I very likely was wrong and subsequently changed my opinion.

And see? It's not so bad. I call myself out all the time for being wrong on the football board. It's part of being an adult and having adult conversations. If you don't become so married to your opinions and let them define you, there can be real room for intellectual growth and conversation.

You should try it sometime. Bumping your post from your other sock earlier in this thread where you missed the total COVID death count by nearly a factor of 1000 would be a good start.
Doc Holliday
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BaylorBJM said:

Canon said:

BaylorBJM said:

Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
Your last sentence is somewhat ambiguous so I wanted to clarify, are you suggesting as the supposed "rationalist" you're one of the crazies who believes Covid19 was created in a Chinese research lab?


Aged poorly...


Yep. I actually bumped something similar a few weeks ago calling myself out for potentially being wrong on thinking it wasn't a lab leak.

Once new and tangible evidence began to present itself, I reassessed, looked at all sides, and admitted I very likely was wrong and subsequently changed my opinion.

And see? It's not so bad. I call myself out all the time for being wrong on the football board. It's part of being an adult and having adult conversations. If you don't become so married to your opinions and let them define you, there can be real room for intellectual growth and conversation.

You should try it sometime. Bumping your post from your other sock earlier in this thread where you missed the total COVID death count by nearly a factor of 1000 would be a good start.
BaylorBJM
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Doc Holliday said:

BaylorBJM said:

Canon said:

BaylorBJM said:

Bearitto said:

LTbear said:

Bearitto said:

Oldbear83 said:

Just want to document now what you think will happen.

What will be the total death count in the US for 2020 from COVID-19?


This type of estimate is referred to in medical circles as a "personal rectal extraction". In other words, you would have to pull it right out of your own ass. No one knows even what the denominator is yet. Not to mention there are so many "ifs" at this point.

1. If it gets into major elderly populations (the Villages in Florida, then maybe a lot)
2. If Gilead's remdesivir drug is as effective as it looks right now
3. If there is a successful vaccine
4. If the virus mutates
5. If the denominator is way off because of too many asymptomatic carriers and lack of testing

What we do know, however, is who is likely to die. The average age of people who have died from this virus is 81 years old. As of 2016, the number of people over 65 in the USA was approximately 50 million. If the mortality rate is 15% among that population (which it has been in China and in Italy and US so far), and if ALL of them get it, the maximum death toll in the US would be 7.5 million people, with virtually all of them elderly and/or infirm.

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.
A bridge too far to try and not let a bunch of people die who otherwise wouldn't have. Not just senior citizens are compromised - every cancer patient, person living with immune disorders, asthmatics, etc., are at risk. I hope I'm misreading the intent of your last sentence, because if not, **** you.


Save your outrage. I'm a rationalist. This virus should be allowed to burn through rather than the world economy shutting down. The costs of shutting down the economy far outweigh the costs of the loss of the individuals with an average age of 81 who would potentially die from the Chinese created Wuhan flu.
Your last sentence is somewhat ambiguous so I wanted to clarify, are you suggesting as the supposed "rationalist" you're one of the crazies who believes Covid19 was created in a Chinese research lab?


Aged poorly...


Yep. I actually bumped something similar a few weeks ago calling myself out for potentially being wrong on thinking it wasn't a lab leak.

Once new and tangible evidence began to present itself, I reassessed, looked at all sides, and admitted I very likely was wrong and subsequently changed my opinion.

And see? It's not so bad. I call myself out all the time for being wrong on the football board. It's part of being an adult and having adult conversations. If you don't become so married to your opinions and let them define you, there can be real room for intellectual growth and conversation.

You should try it sometime. Bumping your post from your other sock earlier in this thread where you missed the total COVID death count by nearly a factor of 1000 would be a good start.



lol. That's good
jupiter
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getting the predicted number wrong doesn't matter, it's getting the distribution wrong that matters.

We treated it as if it were following a Gaussian distribution when really it was following a power law

Osodecentx
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Canada2017 said:

quash said:

Shakesbear said:

World wide as of 8 minutes ago:

885687 - confirmed cases
44216 - deaths
4.99% death rate

United States as of 8 minutes ago:

190509 - confirmed cases
4118 - deaths
2.16% death rate

The death rate for the US has risen above the 2% mark for the first time, and that is bad news. I was really hoping we could keep it at no more than 2%, which is still way too high. Stay safe out there, and wash ya dam hands

As ATL keeps saying we can't know the death rate without an accurate infection count.


Without a viable drug treatment ......we will have over 250,000 dead by October .

Without a viable drug treatment....the economy will continue to crash . People will be subject to a level of poverty that hasn't been seen since the 1930's .

Without a viable vaccine by December .....world wide losses will be in the millions .

Pretty good prediction
Osodecentx
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PartyBear said:

Do you realize the hospitals will be over run? This is more than a few deaths it is thousands of very sick people (potentially more than we have hospital beds for). The University of Cincinnati Medical School/Center has just added make shift hospital tents on campus in preparation . The idea of well they just need to die rather than hurt the economy is very much sounding like yall's made up death panels of 10 years ago.

This is headed toward putting a lot of stress on a lot of things. Btw since my last post. I did see that the Ohio Governor may shut down all bars and restaurants in Ohio. He is openly floating the idea.
Pretty good prediction
jupiter
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Quote:

This tells me that the economy destroying measures we are taking in order to keep an already long lived population alive even longer at the detriment of families and children, is a bridge too far.

Why would anyone ever bother working for retirement if they know they are just going to be sacrificed once they become an "inconvenience"? The economics aren't going to work out in favor of that proposition

We lost 1/2 million, had to lock down anyway. and the economy still tanked.

If a giant plane were going to dump radioactive waste all over the US, we shouldn't shoot it down because we'd have to clean up the mess. Turns out after we let it spray all over the place we still have to clean it up, except now it's everywhere and is much more costly to clean
quash
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BaylorBJM said:





Yep. I actually bumped something similar a few weeks ago calling myself out for potentially being wrong on thinking it wasn't a lab leak.

Once new and tangible evidence began to present itself, I reassessed, looked at all sides, and admitted I very likely was wrong and subsequently changed my opinion.

And see? It's not so bad. I call myself out all the time for being wrong on the football board. It's part of being an adult and having adult conversations. If you don't become so married to your opinions and let them define you, there can be real room for intellectual growth and conversation.

You should try it sometime. Bumping your post from your other sock earlier in this thread where you missed the total COVID death count by nearly a factor of 1000 would be a good start.

What is the new evidence in favor of lab creation?
“Life, liberty, and property do not exist because men have made laws. On the contrary, it was the fact that life, liberty, and property existed beforehand that caused men to make laws in the first place.” (The Law, p.6) Frederic Bastiat
Osodecentx
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quash said:

BaylorBJM said:





Yep. I actually bumped something similar a few weeks ago calling myself out for potentially being wrong on thinking it wasn't a lab leak.

Once new and tangible evidence began to present itself, I reassessed, looked at all sides, and admitted I very likely was wrong and subsequently changed my opinion.

And see? It's not so bad. I call myself out all the time for being wrong on the football board. It's part of being an adult and having adult conversations. If you don't become so married to your opinions and let them define you, there can be real room for intellectual growth and conversation.

You should try it sometime. Bumping your post from your other sock earlier in this thread where you missed the total COVID death count by nearly a factor of 1000 would be a good start.

What is the new evidence in favor of lab creation?

Lab leak and lab creation are different.

WaPo had an article on this.

Timeline: How the Wuhan lab-leak theory suddenly became credible
[url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/glenn-kessler/][/url]
Glenn Kessler
The Fact Checker

May 25, 2021 at 2:00 a.m. CDT

The source of the coronavirus that has left more than 3 million people dead around the world remains a mystery. But in recent months the idea that it emerged from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) once dismissed as a ridiculous conspiracy theory has gained new credence.

How and why did this happen? For one, efforts to discover a natural source of the virus have failed. Second, early efforts to spotlight a lab leak often got mixed up with speculation that the virus was deliberately created as a bioweapon. That made it easier for many scientists to dismiss the lab scenario as tin-hat nonsense. But a lack of transparency by China and renewed attention to the activities of the Wuhan lab have led some scientists to say they were too quick to discount a possible link at first.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) from the start pointed to the lab's location in Wuhan, pressing China for answers, so the history books will reward him if he turns out to be right. The Trump administration also sought to highlight the lab scenario but generally could only point to vague intelligence. The Trump administration's messaging was often accompanied by anti-Chinese rhetoric that made it easier for skeptics to ignore its claims.

As a reader service, here is a timeline of key events, including important articles, that have led to this reassessment. In some instances, important information was available from the start but was generally ignored. But in other cases, some experts fought against the conventional wisdom and began to build a credible case, rooted in science, that started to change people's minds. This has led to renewed calls for a real investigation into the lab's activities before the coronavirus emerged.

Dec. 30, 2019: The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission issues an "urgent notice" to medical institutions in Wuhan, saying that cases of pneumonia of unknown cause have emerged from the city's Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market.

Jan. 5, 2020: Earliest known tweet suggesting China created the virus. @GarboHK tweeted: "18 years ago, #China killed nearly 300 #HongKongers by unreporting #SARScases, letting Chinese tourists travel around the world, to Asia specifically to spread the virus with bad intention. Today the evil regime strikes again with a new virus."

Jan. 23: A Daily Mail article appears, headlined: "China built a lab to study SARS and Ebola in Wuhan and U.S. biosafety experts warned in 2017 that a virus could 'escape' the facility that's become key in fighting the outbreak."

Jan. 26: The Washington Times publishes an article with the headline: "Coronavirus may have originated in lab linked to China's biowarfare program." An editor's note is added March 25: "Since this story ran, scientists outside of China have had a chance to study the SARS-CoV-2 virus. They concluded it does not show signs of having been manufactured or purposefully manipulated in a lab."

Jan. 26: A study by Chinese researchers published in the Lancet of the first 41 hospitalized patients in Wuhan who had confirmed infections found that 13 of the 41 cases, including the first documented case, had no link to the seafood marketplace that originally was considered the origin of the outbreak.

Jan 30: Sen. Tom Cotton, speaking at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, says: "This coronavirus is a catastrophe on the scale of Chernobyl for China. But actually, it's probably worse than Chernobyl, which was localized in its effect. The coronavirus could result in a global pandemic." He adds: "I would note that Wuhan has China's only biosafety level-four super laboratory that works with the world's most deadly pathogens to include, yes, coronavirus."

Feb. 3: WIV researchers report in the journal Nature that the novel coronavirus spreading around the world was a bat-derived coronavirus. The report said SARS-CoV-2 is 96.2 percent identical at the whole-genome level to a bat coronavirus named RaTG13.

Feb. 6: Botao Xiao, a molecular biomechanics researcher at South China University of Technology, posts a paper stating that "the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan." He pointed to the previous safety mishaps and the kind of research undertaken at the lab. He withdrew the paper a few weeks later after Chinese authorities insisted no accident had taken place.

[url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/25/timeline-how-wuhan-lab-leak-theory-suddenly-became-credible/][/url]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/25/timeline-how-wuhan-lab-leak-theory-suddenly-became-credible/

quash
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Yeah, last thing in the time line is over a year old. The WHO study is far more recent.
“Life, liberty, and property do not exist because men have made laws. On the contrary, it was the fact that life, liberty, and property existed beforehand that caused men to make laws in the first place.” (The Law, p.6) Frederic Bastiat
Canon
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quash said:

Yeah, last thing in the time line is over a year old. The WHO study is far more recent.


The WHO study is a WHO 'study'.
quash
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Canon said:

quash said:

Yeah, last thing in the time line is over a year old. The WHO study is far more recent.


The WHO study is a WHO 'study'.
Your fear of science nothwithstanding, you can read the study itself, I linked to it. Many times I have pointed out that popular news reports on science can cover the whole spectrum of politics while covering the same facts. Read the primary source and tell me what you think they got wrong.
“Life, liberty, and property do not exist because men have made laws. On the contrary, it was the fact that life, liberty, and property existed beforehand that caused men to make laws in the first place.” (The Law, p.6) Frederic Bastiat
Canon
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quash said:

Canon said:

quash said:

Yeah, last thing in the time line is over a year old. The WHO study is far more recent.


The WHO study is a WHO 'study'.
Your fear of science nothwithstanding, you can read the study itself, I linked to it. Many times I have pointed out that popular news reports on science can cover the whole spectrum of politics while covering the same facts. Read the primary source and tell me what you think they got wrong.

I'm sure you found PRAVDA credible in its day as well.
quash
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Canon said:

quash said:

Canon said:

quash said:

Yeah, last thing in the time line is over a year old. The WHO study is far more recent.


The WHO study is a WHO 'study'.
Your fear of science nothwithstanding, you can read the study itself, I linked to it. Many times I have pointed out that popular news reports on science can cover the whole spectrum of politics while covering the same facts. Read the primary source and tell me what you think they got wrong.

I'm sure you found PRAVDA credible in its day as well.
Run.
“Life, liberty, and property do not exist because men have made laws. On the contrary, it was the fact that life, liberty, and property existed beforehand that caused men to make laws in the first place.” (The Law, p.6) Frederic Bastiat
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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quash said:

BaylorBJM said:





Yep. I actually bumped something similar a few weeks ago calling myself out for potentially being wrong on thinking it wasn't a lab leak.

Once new and tangible evidence began to present itself, I reassessed, looked at all sides, and admitted I very likely was wrong and subsequently changed my opinion.

And see? It's not so bad. I call myself out all the time for being wrong on the football board. It's part of being an adult and having adult conversations. If you don't become so married to your opinions and let them define you, there can be real room for intellectual growth and conversation.

You should try it sometime. Bumping your post from your other sock earlier in this thread where you missed the total COVID death count by nearly a factor of 1000 would be a good start.

What is the new evidence in favor of lab creation?



Sounds like you have your mind made up.

Sounds like you have had it made up for a year.
Call it a tax, the people are outraged! Call it a tariff, the people get out their checkbooks and wave their American flags!!!
 
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