robby44 said:

---

blackie said:

---

What will go a good way to help is to abandon this notion that young people can continue going on as they have before. They are a key to stopping this thing from spreading. And the notion that they are somewhat not effected is starting to be exposed as BS. Last night on the news in Dallas, it was mentioned there were three hospitalizations. One was elderly, but the other two were in their 20s and 30s and nothing was said about them having underlying conditions. And now I am hearing that reports are coming out of Europe that younger people are getting serious conditions. It is not just the elderly at risk. We are all at risk. But if the younger ones take the attitude as I have seen by a few in this forum, that they just continue on as normal, all they are doing is making things worse, both health-wise and the effect on the economy by just further spreading the virus.

---

My 25 year old nephew just tested positive Monday
He's in the Army stationed in Japan. Cavalry Scout 19 Delta

---

Kyle said:

---

Guy Noir said:

---

Kyle said:

---

contrario said:

---

We'll know in November. This could backfire on the democrats if Trump gets us out of this and the economy begins to recover before the election.

Every person I've talked to, regardless of age, race or political affiliation knows the hysteria is ridiculous. That doesn't mean they think the virus isn't dangerous, it absolutely is, but the panic is disproportionate to the actual threat. And most people are seeing that.

---

Yes, but when are influential people going to start calling for return to normality. When are Establishment leaders going to put people and country above politics and principle?

---

Asking people to stay home and keep social distances is putting people and country, above politics. I do not understand your use of the word principle. This virus is spreading very quickly. The best solutions are to social distance people. The USA economy needs to be able to be on hold for a month (maybe more). That is the reality of the situation.

I would like to note that the borders need to be controlled because of this event. The argument for open borders that was discussed last year, is now shown to be a poor approach.

---

Why did we not take similar precautions during the H1N1 pandemic?

Mark my words, 90% of the people calling for the hysteria have not thought it through. When they realize the treatment was worse than the disease, they are going to get amnesia and blame president Trump and Republicans for destroying the economy.

---

ATL Bear said:

---

PartyBear said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Actually the document I spoke of specifically mentioned if the steps taken are successful, it will seem like it was all for not as the illness and casualties would be kept at a minimum.

---

That's how you give yourself an out when doing speculative math models which these agencies are doing. I'm sorry, but it's their hysterical forecasts that are driving these decisions. Not only do we have incomplete data sets to work with, we still don't understand the virus completely. Even reviewing trends from prior infections including China, who suppressed and sat on the information for months is sitting at 3200 deaths and 80,000+ cases in a population of 1.5 Billion people. Hubei Province where it all started is the size of Missouri with the population of California and New York State combined! The statistical reality is that this is a blip even if it were 10 times worse as it has manifested. But we're acting on a report saying that it could manifest itself 1000 times greater than it has thus far globally just here in our country. This reminds me of rosy OMB forecasts on budgets that never come close to fruition.

---

Gold Tron said:

---

bear2be2 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

PartyBear said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Actually the document I spoke of specifically mentioned if the steps taken are successful, it will seem like it was all for not as the illness and casualties would be kept at a minimum.

---

That's how you give yourself an out when doing speculative math models which these agencies are doing. I'm sorry, but it's their hysterical forecasts that are driving these decisions. Not only do we have incomplete data sets to work with, we still don't understand the virus completely. Even reviewing trends from prior infections including China, who suppressed and sat on the information for months is sitting at 3200 deaths and 80,000+ cases in a population of 1.5 Billion people. Hubei Province where it all started is the size of Missouri with the population of California and New York State combined! The statistical reality is that this is a blip even if it were 10 times worse as it has manifested. But we're acting on a report saying that it could manifest itself 1000 times greater than it has thus far globally just here in our country. This reminds me of rosy OMB forecasts on budgets that never come close to fruition.

---

What do you do for a living? If the answer isn't doctor or infectious disease specialist, what makes you feel qualified to speak on the subject with any kind of authority?

Everyone with any knowledge on these things is sharing a unified message. Why should we listen to you over the experts?

---

I am a physician and that statement is false. The medical community has no idea how bad this is going to be. We are preparing for the worst and hoping it is not nearly that dire. One shouldn't concern themselves with overall infection rate. The only thing that matters is morbidity and mortality. I truly believe that as we expand testing beyond the suspected and symptomatic, this will not be the nightmare we are fearing.

Time will tell but the UK may be taking the right approach. Quarantine the high risk and everyone else carry on using common sense.

---

Kyle said:

---

Gold Tron said:

---

bear2be2 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

PartyBear said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Actually the document I spoke of specifically mentioned if the steps taken are successful, it will seem like it was all for not as the illness and casualties would be kept at a minimum.

---

That's how you give yourself an out when doing speculative math models which these agencies are doing. I'm sorry, but it's their hysterical forecasts that are driving these decisions. Not only do we have incomplete data sets to work with, we still don't understand the virus completely. Even reviewing trends from prior infections including China, who suppressed and sat on the information for months is sitting at 3200 deaths and 80,000+ cases in a population of 1.5 Billion people. Hubei Province where it all started is the size of Missouri with the population of California and New York State combined! The statistical reality is that this is a blip even if it were 10 times worse as it has manifested. But we're acting on a report saying that it could manifest itself 1000 times greater than it has thus far globally just here in our country. This reminds me of rosy OMB forecasts on budgets that never come close to fruition.

---

What do you do for a living? If the answer isn't doctor or infectious disease specialist, what makes you feel qualified to speak on the subject with any kind of authority?

Everyone with any knowledge on these things is sharing a unified message. Why should we listen to you over the experts?

---

I am a physician and that statement is false. The medical community has no idea how bad this is going to be. We are preparing for the worst and hoping it is not nearly that dire. One shouldn't concern themselves with overall infection rate. The only thing that matters is morbidity and mortality. I truly believe that as we expand testing beyond the suspected and symptomatic, this will not be the nightmare we are fearing.

Time will tell but the UK may be taking the right approach. Quarantine the high risk and everyone else carry on using common sense.

---

Thank you. I have been screaming this from the mountains - everyone talks hysterically about infection rates, when what matters is mortality. To-date in the U.S. 1.3%.

Please don't say "look at Italy" - that was a different situation.

---

Kyle said:

---

bear2be2 said:

---

Kyle said:

---

Guy Noir said:

---

Kyle said:

---

contrario said:

---

We'll know in November. This could backfire on the democrats if Trump gets us out of this and the economy begins to recover before the election.

Every person I've talked to, regardless of age, race or political affiliation knows the hysteria is ridiculous. That doesn't mean they think the virus isn't dangerous, it absolutely is, but the panic is disproportionate to the actual threat. And most people are seeing that.

---

Yes, but when are influential people going to start calling for return to normality. When are Establishment leaders going to put people and country above politics and principle?

---

Asking people to stay home and keep social distances is putting people and country, above politics. I do not understand your use of the word principle. This virus is spreading very quickly. The best solutions are to social distance people. The USA economy needs to be able to be on hold for a month (maybe more). That is the reality of the situation.

I would like to note that the borders need to be controlled because of this event. The argument for open borders that was discussed last year, is now shown to be a poor approach.

---

Why did we not take similar precautions during the H1N1 pandemic?

Mark my words, 90% of the people calling for the hysteria have not thought it through. When they realize the treatment was worse than the disease, they are going to get amnesia and blame president Trump and Republicans for destroying the economy.

---

You just revealed the true motivation of your science denial.

Repeat after me ... THIS IS NOT A POLITICAL ISSUE. IT IS A WORLDWIDE PANDEMIC.

The sooner some of you acknowledge reality, the better off we'll all be. The biggest danger the Republicans face at this point is becoming the party COVID-19 truthers. No one is going to blame them for trying to keep people safe. People will absolutely blame them for making a bad problem worse with willful ignorance in the face of overwhelming evidence.

---

I'm not denying science. I'm acknowledging that science if fallible, and guys in cubes maintain out-dated models that they have not thought to update, plug-in some data from Italy and China, and it spits out millions of people dying in the streets. Most of those models are not nearly sophisticated enough to accurately predict and consider the inherent complexity.

I realize it is not political. I am more concerned about the tens of millions that will have their lives destroyed vs. the few hundred that will die. Yes, that tragic but 100 people die / day on the roads - yet why do we allow driving?

Again, why was this level of panic not issues for H1N1? Was Obama so incompetent he never realized there was a virus, or is this one being over-blown? They're the same thing.

(For the record, everything is political)

---

bear2be2 said:

---

Kyle said:

---

Gold Tron said:

---

bear2be2 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

PartyBear said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Actually the document I spoke of specifically mentioned if the steps taken are successful, it will seem like it was all for not as the illness and casualties would be kept at a minimum.

---

That's how you give yourself an out when doing speculative math models which these agencies are doing. I'm sorry, but it's their hysterical forecasts that are driving these decisions. Not only do we have incomplete data sets to work with, we still don't understand the virus completely. Even reviewing trends from prior infections including China, who suppressed and sat on the information for months is sitting at 3200 deaths and 80,000+ cases in a population of 1.5 Billion people. Hubei Province where it all started is the size of Missouri with the population of California and New York State combined! The statistical reality is that this is a blip even if it were 10 times worse as it has manifested. But we're acting on a report saying that it could manifest itself 1000 times greater than it has thus far globally just here in our country. This reminds me of rosy OMB forecasts on budgets that never come close to fruition.

---

What do you do for a living? If the answer isn't doctor or infectious disease specialist, what makes you feel qualified to speak on the subject with any kind of authority?

Everyone with any knowledge on these things is sharing a unified message. Why should we listen to you over the experts?

---

I am a physician and that statement is false. The medical community has no idea how bad this is going to be. We are preparing for the worst and hoping it is not nearly that dire. One shouldn't concern themselves with overall infection rate. The only thing that matters is morbidity and mortality. I truly believe that as we expand testing beyond the suspected and symptomatic, this will not be the nightmare we are fearing.

Time will tell but the UK may be taking the right approach. Quarantine the high risk and everyone else carry on using common sense.

---

Thank you. I have been screaming this from the mountains - everyone talks hysterically about infection rates, when what matters is mortality. To-date in the U.S. 1.3%.

Please don't say "look at Italy" - that was a different situation.

---

The United States' mortality rate is up to 1.8 percent, and will be at or above the global average in short order at its current pace.

The the last five days have seen the daily death toll jump from eight on Saturday, to 11 on Sunday, to 18 on Monday, to 23 on Tuesday, to 39 today. That number is going to do nothing but grow for the foreseeable future.

We are only at the beginning of this outbreak, unfortunately, and as Italy has learned, things change rapidly. That country's mortality rate was 2.4 percent on March 1, 4.9 on March 8, 7.2 percent on March 15 and is 8.3 percent today.

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Booray said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Or we can say thousands were saved by the extreme measures.

My point is that no one created this for political gain, I think the government generally (federal, state, county, city) and President Trump specifically (after he convinced himself of the seriousness) are implementing pretty Draconian measures only because they feel that to be the right course of action versus the risk; they are trying to save lives not get votes.

As to the media I can see folks saying left-leaning content providers started by over-hyping this and right-leaning content providers . started by being overly dismissive. But there isn't much daylight between them now.

As Old Bear mentions, there will be plenty of political dissection later, but for the most part, right now everyone is just trying to say and do what they feel best in light of a large risk.

---

bear2be2 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

PartyBear said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Actually the document I spoke of specifically mentioned if the steps taken are successful, it will seem like it was all for not as the illness and casualties would be kept at a minimum.

---

That's how you give yourself an out when doing speculative math models which these agencies are doing. I'm sorry, but it's their hysterical forecasts that are driving these decisions. Not only do we have incomplete data sets to work with, we still don't understand the virus completely. Even reviewing trends from prior infections including China, who suppressed and sat on the information for months is sitting at 3200 deaths and 80,000+ cases in a population of 1.5 Billion people. Hubei Province where it all started is the size of Missouri with the population of California and New York State combined! The statistical reality is that this is a blip even if it were 10 times worse as it has manifested. But we're acting on a report saying that it could manifest itself 1000 times greater than it has thus far globally just here in our country. This reminds me of rosy OMB forecasts on budgets that never come close to fruition.

---

What do you do for a living? If the answer isn't doctor or infectious disease specialist, what makes you feel qualified to speak on the subject with any kind of authority?

Everyone with any knowledge on these things is sharing a unified message. Why should we listen to you over the experts?

---

Gold Tron said:

---

bear2be2 said:

---

Gold Tron said:

---

bear2be2 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

PartyBear said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Actually the document I spoke of specifically mentioned if the steps taken are successful, it will seem like it was all for not as the illness and casualties would be kept at a minimum.

---

That's how you give yourself an out when doing speculative math models which these agencies are doing. I'm sorry, but it's their hysterical forecasts that are driving these decisions. Not only do we have incomplete data sets to work with, we still don't understand the virus completely. Even reviewing trends from prior infections including China, who suppressed and sat on the information for months is sitting at 3200 deaths and 80,000+ cases in a population of 1.5 Billion people. Hubei Province where it all started is the size of Missouri with the population of California and New York State combined! The statistical reality is that this is a blip even if it were 10 times worse as it has manifested. But we're acting on a report saying that it could manifest itself 1000 times greater than it has thus far globally just here in our country. This reminds me of rosy OMB forecasts on budgets that never come close to fruition.

---

What do you do for a living? If the answer isn't doctor or infectious disease specialist, what makes you feel qualified to speak on the subject with any kind of authority?

Everyone with any knowledge on these things is sharing a unified message. Why should we listen to you over the experts?

---

I am a physician and that statement is false. The medical community has no idea how bad this is going to be. We are preparing for the worst and hoping it is not nearly that dire. One shouldn't concern themselves with overall infection rate. The only thing that matters is morbidity and mortality. I truly believe that as we expand testing beyond the suspected and symptomatic, this will not be the nightmare we are fearing.

Time will tell but the UK may be taking the right approach. Quarantine the high risk and everyone else carry on using common sense.

---

I appreciate your input and expertise, but I have yet to see a epidemiologist or infectious disease expert that has advocated against the containment steps being pushed by most first-world governments.

The only people I've seen suggest that basic social distancing measures are overkill have literally all been wholly unqualified to make such a determination.

I'm not suggesting that all doctors and epidemiologists are unified on the outcome of this pandemic, which is educated speculation at this point. But there is a universal concern from what I've seen about the potential ramifications of inaction.

---

I met with the Infectious Disease department this morning and am on a four member task force charged with putting together our multidisciplinary approach to triage and critical care should the worst case scenario happen.

The comments about the approach taken by the UK was directly from an ID doctor. The pediatric population seems completely unaffected and now with no school, many kids are having to stay with grandparents all day. It is a horrible scenario because only time will tell who was right.

I personally am not convinced that mortality rates will be near some of the projections I have seen but professionally I owe it to everyone to prepare for it to happen.

I've got a ton of emails to send but know that I care about Baylor and all of her family whether we agree or not. Stay safe and I will check back tomorrow.

---

Canada2017 said:

---

robby44 said:

---

blackie said:

---

What will go a good way to help is to abandon this notion that young people can continue going on as they have before. They are a key to stopping this thing from spreading. And the notion that they are somewhat not effected is starting to be exposed as BS. Last night on the news in Dallas, it was mentioned there were three hospitalizations. One was elderly, but the other two were in their 20s and 30s and nothing was said about them having underlying conditions. And now I am hearing that reports are coming out of Europe that younger people are getting serious conditions. It is not just the elderly at risk. We are all at risk. But if the younger ones take the attitude as I have seen by a few in this forum, that they just continue on as normal, all they are doing is making things worse, both health-wise and the effect on the economy by just further spreading the virus.

---

My 25 year old nephew just tested positive Monday
He's in the Army stationed in Japan. Cavalry Scout 19 Delta

---

Damn, I'm sorry to read this .

Does the Army or your nephew have any idea how he contracted it ?

---

BaylorBJM said:

---

Kyle said:

---

So far, 97 people have died. Each day, 102 people die in automobile accidents.

We're at least 15,000 deaths away from reaching H1N1 totals, and 20,000 away from annual influenza totals.

Was it worth it to destroy tens of millions of lives as well as our economy?

Was it worth it to try and win an election?

What will put a bigger strain on health care, 5,000 Wuhan Virus cases or a 20% unemployment rate?

---

You're probably the same guy who will start the "Fire Aranda!" thread if our offense goes 3-and-out during the first series of the Ole Miss game.

---

robby44 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

robby44 said:

---

blackie said:

---

What will go a good way to help is to abandon this notion that young people can continue going on as they have before. They are a key to stopping this thing from spreading. And the notion that they are somewhat not effected is starting to be exposed as BS. Last night on the news in Dallas, it was mentioned there were three hospitalizations. One was elderly, but the other two were in their 20s and 30s and nothing was said about them having underlying conditions. And now I am hearing that reports are coming out of Europe that younger people are getting serious conditions. It is not just the elderly at risk. We are all at risk. But if the younger ones take the attitude as I have seen by a few in this forum, that they just continue on as normal, all they are doing is making things worse, both health-wise and the effect on the economy by just further spreading the virus.

---

My 25 year old nephew just tested positive Monday
He's in the Army stationed in Japan. Cavalry Scout 19 Delta

---

Damn, I'm sorry to read this .

Does the Army or your nephew have any idea how he contracted it ?

---

Unknown at this time but there were others that tested positive along with him.

---

ATL Bear said:

---

bear2be2 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

PartyBear said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Actually the document I spoke of specifically mentioned if the steps taken are successful, it will seem like it was all for not as the illness and casualties would be kept at a minimum.

---

That's how you give yourself an out when doing speculative math models which these agencies are doing. I'm sorry, but it's their hysterical forecasts that are driving these decisions. Not only do we have incomplete data sets to work with, we still don't understand the virus completely. Even reviewing trends from prior infections including China, who suppressed and sat on the information for months is sitting at 3200 deaths and 80,000+ cases in a population of 1.5 Billion people. Hubei Province where it all started is the size of Missouri with the population of California and New York State combined! The statistical reality is that this is a blip even if it were 10 times worse as it has manifested. But we're acting on a report saying that it could manifest itself 1000 times greater than it has thus far globally just here in our country. This reminds me of rosy OMB forecasts on budgets that never come close to fruition.

---

What do you do for a living? If the answer isn't doctor or infectious disease specialist, what makes you feel qualified to speak on the subject with any kind of authority?

Everyone with any knowledge on these things is sharing a unified message. Why should we listen to you over the experts?

---

My business requires excessive trend analysis and forecast modeling. That's what I'm looking at. The data and what's not part of the data and what is missing in the models. That's my experiential application.

I have anecdotal insight, much like many others, from close family friends who own cancer treatment centers and one who is an ER physician. They conflict in opinion with one who is surprisingly cavalier while the other is much more cautious but nothing at the level of some of these dire predictions. So no, there isn't a broad consensus of what will occur.

EDIT: These are my opinions and thoughts and am not seeking professional validation for them. As is gaining traction, the South Korean open society approach and UK proposals are completely agreeable to me as a balance of precaution and practicality.

---

ATL Bear said:

---

bear2be2 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

PartyBear said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Actually the document I spoke of specifically mentioned if the steps taken are successful, it will seem like it was all for not as the illness and casualties would be kept at a minimum.

---

That's how you give yourself an out when doing speculative math models which these agencies are doing. I'm sorry, but it's their hysterical forecasts that are driving these decisions. Not only do we have incomplete data sets to work with, we still don't understand the virus completely. Even reviewing trends from prior infections including China, who suppressed and sat on the information for months is sitting at 3200 deaths and 80,000+ cases in a population of 1.5 Billion people. Hubei Province where it all started is the size of Missouri with the population of California and New York State combined! The statistical reality is that this is a blip even if it were 10 times worse as it has manifested. But we're acting on a report saying that it could manifest itself 1000 times greater than it has thus far globally just here in our country. This reminds me of rosy OMB forecasts on budgets that never come close to fruition.

---

What do you do for a living? If the answer isn't doctor or infectious disease specialist, what makes you feel qualified to speak on the subject with any kind of authority?

Everyone with any knowledge on these things is sharing a unified message. Why should we listen to you over the experts?

---

My business requires excessive trend analysis and forecast modeling. That's what I'm looking at. The data and what's not part of the data and what is missing in the models. That's my experiential application.

I have anecdotal insight, much like many others, from close family friends who own cancer treatment centers and one who is an ER physician. They conflict in opinion with one who is surprisingly cavalier while the other is much more cautious but nothing at the level of some of these dire predictions. So no, there isn't a broad consensus of what will occur.

EDIT: These are my opinions and thoughts and am not seeking professional validation for them. As is gaining traction, the South Korean open society approach and UK proposals are completely agreeable to me as a balance of precaution and practicality.

---

bear2be2 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

bear2be2 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

PartyBear said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

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Actually the document I spoke of specifically mentioned if the steps taken are successful, it will seem like it was all for not as the illness and casualties would be kept at a minimum.

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That's how you give yourself an out when doing speculative math models which these agencies are doing. I'm sorry, but it's their hysterical forecasts that are driving these decisions. Not only do we have incomplete data sets to work with, we still don't understand the virus completely. Even reviewing trends from prior infections including China, who suppressed and sat on the information for months is sitting at 3200 deaths and 80,000+ cases in a population of 1.5 Billion people. Hubei Province where it all started is the size of Missouri with the population of California and New York State combined! The statistical reality is that this is a blip even if it were 10 times worse as it has manifested. But we're acting on a report saying that it could manifest itself 1000 times greater than it has thus far globally just here in our country. This reminds me of rosy OMB forecasts on budgets that never come close to fruition.

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What do you do for a living? If the answer isn't doctor or infectious disease specialist, what makes you feel qualified to speak on the subject with any kind of authority?

Everyone with any knowledge on these things is sharing a unified message. Why should we listen to you over the experts?

---

My business requires excessive trend analysis and forecast modeling. That's what I'm looking at. The data and what's not part of the data and what is missing in the models. That's my experiential application.

I have anecdotal insight, much like many others, from close family friends who own cancer treatment centers and one who is an ER physician. They conflict in opinion with one who is surprisingly cavalier while the other is much more cautious but nothing at the level of some of these dire predictions. So no, there isn't a broad consensus of what will occur.

EDIT: These are my opinions and thoughts and am not seeking professional validation for them. As is gaining traction, the South Korean open society approach and UK proposals are completely agreeable to me as a balance of precaution and practicality.

---

Comparing South Korea to the United Kingdom is to ignore the biggest key to South Korea's success in containment: rapid, available and reliable testing. They were able to identify and quarantine the infected, something the West has largely failed to do.

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Gold Tron said:

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bear2be2 said:

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ATL Bear said:

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bear2be2 said:

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ATL Bear said:

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PartyBear said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Booray said:

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Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Actually the document I spoke of specifically mentioned if the steps taken are successful, it will seem like it was all for not as the illness and casualties would be kept at a minimum.

---

That's how you give yourself an out when doing speculative math models which these agencies are doing. I'm sorry, but it's their hysterical forecasts that are driving these decisions. Not only do we have incomplete data sets to work with, we still don't understand the virus completely. Even reviewing trends from prior infections including China, who suppressed and sat on the information for months is sitting at 3200 deaths and 80,000+ cases in a population of 1.5 Billion people. Hubei Province where it all started is the size of Missouri with the population of California and New York State combined! The statistical reality is that this is a blip even if it were 10 times worse as it has manifested. But we're acting on a report saying that it could manifest itself 1000 times greater than it has thus far globally just here in our country. This reminds me of rosy OMB forecasts on budgets that never come close to fruition.

---

What do you do for a living? If the answer isn't doctor or infectious disease specialist, what makes you feel qualified to speak on the subject with any kind of authority?

Everyone with any knowledge on these things is sharing a unified message. Why should we listen to you over the experts?

---

My business requires excessive trend analysis and forecast modeling. That's what I'm looking at. The data and what's not part of the data and what is missing in the models. That's my experiential application.

I have anecdotal insight, much like many others, from close family friends who own cancer treatment centers and one who is an ER physician. They conflict in opinion with one who is surprisingly cavalier while the other is much more cautious but nothing at the level of some of these dire predictions. So no, there isn't a broad consensus of what will occur.

EDIT: These are my opinions and thoughts and am not seeking professional validation for them. As is gaining traction, the South Korean open society approach and UK proposals are completely agreeable to me as a balance of precaution and practicality.

---

Comparing South Korea to the United Kingdom is to ignore the biggest key to South Korea's success in containment: rapid, available and reliable testing. They were able to identify and quarantine the infected, something the West has largely failed to do.

---

FDA and CDC both refused to use the tests from South Korea and Germany last month preferring to develop their own.

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bear2be2 said:

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Gold Tron said:

---

bear2be2 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

bear2be2 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

PartyBear said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Actually the document I spoke of specifically mentioned if the steps taken are successful, it will seem like it was all for not as the illness and casualties would be kept at a minimum.

---

That's how you give yourself an out when doing speculative math models which these agencies are doing. I'm sorry, but it's their hysterical forecasts that are driving these decisions. Not only do we have incomplete data sets to work with, we still don't understand the virus completely. Even reviewing trends from prior infections including China, who suppressed and sat on the information for months is sitting at 3200 deaths and 80,000+ cases in a population of 1.5 Billion people. Hubei Province where it all started is the size of Missouri with the population of California and New York State combined! The statistical reality is that this is a blip even if it were 10 times worse as it has manifested. But we're acting on a report saying that it could manifest itself 1000 times greater than it has thus far globally just here in our country. This reminds me of rosy OMB forecasts on budgets that never come close to fruition.

---

What do you do for a living? If the answer isn't doctor or infectious disease specialist, what makes you feel qualified to speak on the subject with any kind of authority?

Everyone with any knowledge on these things is sharing a unified message. Why should we listen to you over the experts?

---

My business requires excessive trend analysis and forecast modeling. That's what I'm looking at. The data and what's not part of the data and what is missing in the models. That's my experiential application.

I have anecdotal insight, much like many others, from close family friends who own cancer treatment centers and one who is an ER physician. They conflict in opinion with one who is surprisingly cavalier while the other is much more cautious but nothing at the level of some of these dire predictions. So no, there isn't a broad consensus of what will occur.

EDIT: These are my opinions and thoughts and am not seeking professional validation for them. As is gaining traction, the South Korean open society approach and UK proposals are completely agreeable to me as a balance of precaution and practicality.

---

Comparing South Korea to the United Kingdom is to ignore the biggest key to South Korea's success in containment: rapid, available and reliable testing. They were able to identify and quarantine the infected, something the West has largely failed to do.

---

FDA and CDC both refused to use the tests from South Korea and Germany last month preferring to develop their own.

---

To their/our great detriment apparently.

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Bearitto said:

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Booray said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Or we can say thousands were saved by the extreme measures.

My point is that no one created this for political gain, I think the government generally (federal, state, county, city) and President Trump specifically (after he convinced himself of the seriousness) are implementing pretty Draconian measures only because they feel that to be the right course of action versus the risk; they are trying to save lives not get votes.

As to the media I can see folks saying left-leaning content providers started by over-hyping this and right-leaning content providers . started by being overly dismissive. But there isn't much daylight between them now.

As Old Bear mentions, there will be plenty of political dissection later, but for the most part, right now everyone is just trying to say and do what they feel best in light of a large risk.

---

That is the "heads I win, tails you lose" illogic the left has used for years; at least since the Great Depression. It's old, tired and foolish.

All the threads telling you all this needs to be allowed to burn through, create herd immunity, while only quarantining the susceptible so they are safe and the economy remains functional Will age well. Your chicken little posts will rely on an imaginary could have been scenario.

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robby44 said:

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Canada2017 said:

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robby44 said:

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blackie said:

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What will go a good way to help is to abandon this notion that young people can continue going on as they have before. They are a key to stopping this thing from spreading. And the notion that they are somewhat not effected is starting to be exposed as BS. Last night on the news in Dallas, it was mentioned there were three hospitalizations. One was elderly, but the other two were in their 20s and 30s and nothing was said about them having underlying conditions. And now I am hearing that reports are coming out of Europe that younger people are getting serious conditions. It is not just the elderly at risk. We are all at risk. But if the younger ones take the attitude as I have seen by a few in this forum, that they just continue on as normal, all they are doing is making things worse, both health-wise and the effect on the economy by just further spreading the virus.

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My 25 year old nephew just tested positive Monday
He's in the Army stationed in Japan. Cavalry Scout 19 Delta

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Damn, I'm sorry to read this .

Does the Army or your nephew have any idea how he contracted it ?

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Unknown at this time but there were others that tested positive along with him.

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Bearitto said:

---

Booray said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Or we can say thousands were saved by the extreme measures.

My point is that no one created this for political gain, I think the government generally (federal, state, county, city) and President Trump specifically (after he convinced himself of the seriousness) are implementing pretty Draconian measures only because they feel that to be the right course of action versus the risk; they are trying to save lives not get votes.

As to the media I can see folks saying left-leaning content providers started by over-hyping this and right-leaning content providers . started by being overly dismissive. But there isn't much daylight between them now.

As Old Bear mentions, there will be plenty of political dissection later, but for the most part, right now everyone is just trying to say and do what they feel best in light of a large risk.

---

That is the "heads I win, tails you lose" illogic the left has used for years; at least since the Great Depression. It's old, tired and foolish.

All the threads telling you all this needs to be allowed to burn through, create herd immunity, while only quarantining the susceptible so they are safe and the economy remains functional Will age well. Your chicken little posts will rely on an imaginary could have been scenario.

---

bear2be2 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Booray said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Or we can say thousands were saved by the extreme measures.

My point is that no one created this for political gain, I think the government generally (federal, state, county, city) and President Trump specifically (after he convinced himself of the seriousness) are implementing pretty Draconian measures only because they feel that to be the right course of action versus the risk; they are trying to save lives not get votes.

As to the media I can see folks saying left-leaning content providers started by over-hyping this and right-leaning content providers . started by being overly dismissive. But there isn't much daylight between them now.

As Old Bear mentions, there will be plenty of political dissection later, but for the most part, right now everyone is just trying to say and do what they feel best in light of a large risk.

---

That is the "heads I win, tails you lose" illogic the left has used for years; at least since the Great Depression. It's old, tired and foolish.

All the threads telling you all this needs to be allowed to burn through, create herd immunity, while only quarantining the susceptible so they are safe and the economy remains functional Will age well. Your chicken little posts will rely on an imaginary could have been scenario.

---

Boris Johnson has already abandoned the burn through/herd immunity rhetoric in Great Britain. And you'll see in the coming days why. It's a guaranteed way to overwhelm your health care infrastructure with a virus that spreads at this rate.

---

Bearitto said:

---

bear2be2 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Booray said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Or we can say thousands were saved by the extreme measures.

My point is that no one created this for political gain, I think the government generally (federal, state, county, city) and President Trump specifically (after he convinced himself of the seriousness) are implementing pretty Draconian measures only because they feel that to be the right course of action versus the risk; they are trying to save lives not get votes.

As to the media I can see folks saying left-leaning content providers started by over-hyping this and right-leaning content providers . started by being overly dismissive. But there isn't much daylight between them now.

As Old Bear mentions, there will be plenty of political dissection later, but for the most part, right now everyone is just trying to say and do what they feel best in light of a large risk.

---

That is the "heads I win, tails you lose" illogic the left has used for years; at least since the Great Depression. It's old, tired and foolish.

All the threads telling you all this needs to be allowed to burn through, create herd immunity, while only quarantining the susceptible so they are safe and the economy remains functional Will age well. Your chicken little posts will rely on an imaginary could have been scenario.

---

Boris Johnson has already abandoned the burn through/herd immunity rhetoric in Great Britain. And you'll see in the coming days why. It's a guaranteed way to overwhelm your health care infrastructure with a virus that spreads at this rate.

---

Or at least that's what those who destroy our economy will repeat 'would have happened'. Boris got caught up in the chicken little hysteria. He was on the right course.

---

bear2be2 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

bear2be2 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Booray said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Or we can say thousands were saved by the extreme measures.

My point is that no one created this for political gain, I think the government generally (federal, state, county, city) and President Trump specifically (after he convinced himself of the seriousness) are implementing pretty Draconian measures only because they feel that to be the right course of action versus the risk; they are trying to save lives not get votes.

As to the media I can see folks saying left-leaning content providers started by over-hyping this and right-leaning content providers . started by being overly dismissive. But there isn't much daylight between them now.

As Old Bear mentions, there will be plenty of political dissection later, but for the most part, right now everyone is just trying to say and do what they feel best in light of a large risk.

---

That is the "heads I win, tails you lose" illogic the left has used for years; at least since the Great Depression. It's old, tired and foolish.

All the threads telling you all this needs to be allowed to burn through, create herd immunity, while only quarantining the susceptible so they are safe and the economy remains functional Will age well. Your chicken little posts will rely on an imaginary could have been scenario.

---

Boris Johnson has already abandoned the burn through/herd immunity rhetoric in Great Britain. And you'll see in the coming days why. It's a guaranteed way to overwhelm your health care infrastructure with a virus that spreads at this rate.

---

Or at least that's what those who destroy our economy will repeat 'would have happened'. Boris got caught up in the chicken little hysteria. He was on the right course.

---

That's what scientists and health care officials in Britain told Johnson, which is why he changed course.

And we won't be talking about what would have happened. We'll be talking in a month or two about what has happened and be thankful it wasn't worse.

---

bear2be2 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

bear2be2 said:

---

Bearitto said:

---

Booray said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Booray said:

---

Many of you on this thread are complaining about the hysteria as a means to get Trump. Its Trump's administration that is appropriately telling everyone to hunker down for at least the next 15 days. The scientists are saying we might have to take significant precautions much longer than that. Businesses and markets are reacting to the uncertainty. This isn't some sort of Democrat driven/media conspiracy, no matter how much you want it to be.

---

Not to sound callous, but if this ends up being the equivalent of a late season flu spike with a couple thousand deaths and 100-200k cases, we can all claim to have been duped, and our economy unnecessarily cratered.

---

Or we can say thousands were saved by the extreme measures.

My point is that no one created this for political gain, I think the government generally (federal, state, county, city) and President Trump specifically (after he convinced himself of the seriousness) are implementing pretty Draconian measures only because they feel that to be the right course of action versus the risk; they are trying to save lives not get votes.

As to the media I can see folks saying left-leaning content providers started by over-hyping this and right-leaning content providers . started by being overly dismissive. But there isn't much daylight between them now.

As Old Bear mentions, there will be plenty of political dissection later, but for the most part, right now everyone is just trying to say and do what they feel best in light of a large risk.

---

That is the "heads I win, tails you lose" illogic the left has used for years; at least since the Great Depression. It's old, tired and foolish.

All the threads telling you all this needs to be allowed to burn through, create herd immunity, while only quarantining the susceptible so they are safe and the economy remains functional Will age well. Your chicken little posts will rely on an imaginary could have been scenario.

---

Boris Johnson has already abandoned the burn through/herd immunity rhetoric in Great Britain. And you'll see in the coming days why. It's a guaranteed way to overwhelm your health care infrastructure with a virus that spreads at this rate.

---

Or at least that's what those who destroy our economy will repeat 'would have happened'. Boris got caught up in the chicken little hysteria. He was on the right course.

---

That's what scientists and health care officials in Britain told Johnson, which is why he changed course.

And we won't be talking about what would have happened. We'll be talking in a month or two about what has happened and be thankful it wasn't worse.

---