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Baylor Basketball

Gameday Thread: #4 Seed Baylor (22-9) vs #5 Seed ISU (18-12)

March 9, 2023
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#4 Seed Baylor (22-9) vs #5 Seed Iowa State (18-12) in the quarterfinals of the Big12 Tournament in Kansas City, Missouri at 11:30am CST Thursday March 9th.  The winner advances to the semifinals at 6pm CST Friday March 10th.  

KenPom Prediction:  Baylor 69 Iowa State 68

Torvik Prediction:  Baylor 69 Iowa State 68

Evan Miyakawa Prediction:  Baylor 69 Iowa State 66


Coaches

Iowa State:   TJ Otzleberger (45) 139-88 (40-25 at ISU); 3 NCAAs; 1 Sweet 16

Baylor:  Scott Drew (52); 441-242 overall (421-231 at Baylor); 10 NCAAs; 5 Sweet 16s; 3 Elite 8s; FF; 1 National Championship

Head to Head:  2-2 


Iowa State Starters

Guard:  Tamin Lipsey (FR) 6-1 200 lbs; 7 ppg; 4 reb; 5 asst; 51% FG; 18% 3pt; 77% FT

Guard: Gabe Kalscheur (SR) 6-4 200 lbs; 13 ppg; 2 reb; 2 asst; 40% FG; 35% 3pt; 74% FT

Guard:  Jaren Holmes (SR) 6-4 210 lbs; 13 ppg; 4 reb; 3 asst; 39% FG; 34% 3pt; 67% FT

Forward:  Robert Jones (SR) 6-10 250 lbs; 6 ppg; 4 reb; 48% FG; 39% FT

Forward:  Tre King (SR) 6-7 230 lbs; 6 ppg; 4 reb; 50% FG; 31% 3pt; 76% FT

Iowa State Bench

Guard:  Demarion Watson (FR) 6-6 215 lbs; 2 ppg; 3 reb; 40% FG; 22% 3pt; 33% FT

Forward:  Aljaz Kunc (SR) 6-8 225 lbs; 8 ppg; 4 reb; 46% FG; 34% 3pt; 75% FT

Forward:  Osun Osunniyi (SR) 6-10 235 lbs; 9 ppg; 4 reb; 59% FG; 23% 3pt; 69% FT


Baylor Starters

Guard:  Adam Flagler (SR) 6-3 185 lbs; 16 ppg; 3 reb; 5 asst; 42% FG; 41% 3pt; 80% FT

Guard:  LJ Cryer (JR) 6-1 190 lbs; 15 ppg; 2 reb; 2 asst; 45% FG; 42% 3pt; 90% FT

Guard:  Keyonte George (FR) 6-4 185 lbs; 16 ppg; 4 reb; 3 asst; 39% FG; 35% 3pt; 79% FT

Forward:  Jalen Bridges (JR) 6-7 225 lbs; 10 ppg; 6 reb; 47% FG; 28% 3pt; 77% FT

Forward:  Flo Thamba (SR) 6-10 250 lbs; 5 ppg; 5 reb; 58% FG; 64% FT

Baylor Bench

Guard:  Dale Bonner (SR) 6-2 170 lbs; 5 ppg; 3 asst; 2 st; 42% FG; 35% 3pt; 76% FT

Forward:  Caleb Lohner (JR) 6-8 235 lbs; 3 ppg; 4 reb; 51% FG; 20% 3pt; 62% FT

Guard:  Langston Love (FR) 6-5 210 lbs; 7 ppg; 2 reb; 43% FG; 36% 3pt; 69% FT

Forward:  Jonthan Tchama Tchatuouia (SR) 6-10 235 lbs; 6 ppg; 5 reb; 51% FG; 50% 3pt; 85% FT

Discussion from...

Gameday Thread: #4 Seed Baylor (22-9) vs #5 Seed ISU (18-12)

22,712 Views | 206 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Oldbear83
PaperBear89
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BUmoneymaker said:

One and done players? I saw none on this squad this season. No one. Some had splash for portions of the season.

Hate that KU remains atop the pedestal after their natty but baylor has proven to be a one and done team with absolutely no follow up success.


Like one said on this board a while back: To hell with the McDonald's all Americans. We need guys to grow old in Waco.
Also helps to have some transfers who were humbled with D3 offers.
mdanderson
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The guy who runs Locked on Baylor at YouTube hoped Baylor would lose today so they could rest for the ncaa tournament. I disagree with this thinking. Losing breeds losing.
Crawfoso1973
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We have one coming in next year, and we were blessed to get him.
PaperBear89
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Crawfoso1973 said:

We have one coming in next year, and we were blessed to get him.
We'll see. I believe more in hungry dogs than fat cats.
SIC EM 94
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BUGWBBear said:

First out big dance. We'll do better in the NIT. Let's go there!

Kindly GFY!
bear2be2
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mdanderson said:

The guy who runs Locked on Baylor at YouTube hoped Baylor would lose today so they could rest for the ncaa tournament. I disagree with this thinking. Losing breeds losing.
This team is now 0-4 in the last four games that our Round 1 starting lineup will have finished -- dropping those games by an average of 11.8 points per contest. That record might be 0-5 if injuries hadn't allowed Bonner to come in and save our bacon against Texas in one of the more unexpected twists of the 2022-23 college basketball season.

This team doesn't need rest. It needs to stop playing like *****
IowaBear
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This… rest is the lamest damm excuse that can be used…
Fre3dombear
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Big_Pumpin said:

Sucks. Got EJ back and Bridges playing well. Doesn't matter. Too many spurts where our offense and defense suck at the same time and with give up huge runs.


EJ seemed at more strength 2 weeks ago. Big regression there. Not surprised and don't blame him. Shocked he played a minute this year. We have nothing really down low without him at full strength. Will be better in coming years.

This team over achieved honestly given the roster available

And no Love last few games. At least he has size and strength over other guys guards
GruntTuff
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....any information on Love's status?
bear2be2
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GruntTuff said:

....any information on Love's status?
They said he was out for all of the Big 12 tournament, and he was wearing sunglasses today. But other than that, I don't think anyone knows.
Quinton
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Agree with both of you. Its only valid in certain cases and this one isn't it. This team needed success and to show toughness against a team that beat them twice.. and they didn't. If Bridge hadn't played like an nba guy today would have lost by 20+.

Still interested to see this team out of conference in the actual tournament. But they just aren't as tough and well rounded as previous years.
Crawfoso1973
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PaperBear89 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

We have one coming in next year, and we were blessed to get him.
We'll see. I believe more in hungry dogs than fat cats.


You obviously don't know Ja'kobe Walter.
PaperBear89
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Crawfoso1973 said:

PaperBear89 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

We have one coming in next year, and we were blessed to get him.
We'll see. I believe more in hungry dogs than fat cats.


You obviously don't know Ja'kobe Walter.
I stand by my statement, esepcially the "We'll see". College team sports recruiting is among the least scientific evaluations anybody can make about anything. It is judging a player on how they did against a bunch of boys who will be doing something else besides playing sports next year.
Oldbear83
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I take issue with those who claim this team does not care.

That's garbage.

So when we lost on Senior Day, I knew we would have trouble today.

So it comes down to three things, I think:

1. Drew has always played for the NCAA Tournament. He won't risk injury to get a conference t-win
2. Some teams are just bad matchups
3. We really don't have a defense to speak of. We need to out-hustle the other team all game long. That's hard to do but we won 11 Big 12 games against some tough opponents.

We could go 1-1, or we could go 4-1. Just have to see who we play, and where.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Timbear
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Drew's inability to develop an inside scoring presence on O, and a tough inside D was pointed out early in the season. This team had no fundamentals. I St was passing up wide open 3's to get it inside, and they were just more physical. The simple formula to beat Baylor is to aggressively defend Baylor's 3 pt line, then get it inside against Baylor's D. Because of Drew's recruiting ability, and in spite of the team huge deficiencies, this is a solid season, and Baylor can get to the sweet 16.
Crawfoso1973
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PaperBear89 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

PaperBear89 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

We have one coming in next year, and we were blessed to get him.
We'll see. I believe more in hungry dogs than fat cats.


You obviously don't know Ja'kobe Walter.
I stand by my statement, esepcially the "We'll see". College team sports recruiting is among the least scientific evaluations anybody can make about anything. It is judging a player on how they did against a bunch of boys who will be doing something else besides playing sports next year.
Do you not know the competition he's gone against this year?
bear2be2
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Crawfoso1973 said:

PaperBear89 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

PaperBear89 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

We have one coming in next year, and we were blessed to get him.
We'll see. I believe more in hungry dogs than fat cats.


You obviously don't know Ja'kobe Walter.
I stand by my statement, esepcially the "We'll see". College team sports recruiting is among the least scientific evaluations anybody can make about anything. It is judging a player on how they did against a bunch of boys who will be doing something else besides playing sports next year.
Do you not know the competition he's gone against this year?
If it's not Big 12 caliber competition, it tells us very little about what we can expect next year.

I'll judge Walter the same way I do all of our players. Based on what he does and how he performs at the high-major college level.
Crawfoso1973
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I wasn't responding to you, I was responding to the guy who said "to hell with the McDonald's All American's." I'm just glad CSD and our staff don't have that mindset.
BQHOME
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Watching Illinois game thinking what we would have looked like this year with Dainja instead of Flo.
GruntTuff
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Legit question:

Given Flo's seeming lack of fire in his belly (we know what we're going to get), would you have a problem having a VERY short leash on Flo going forward.

Start him and hope for a revelation. If not (3-4 minutes of nothing), pull him for perhaps the rest of the half.

It seems JTT has physically plateaued.

What about going with Josh O for 6-8 minutes and play zone. We have a week to work on it. Daniels, Cryer, Flagler get 32 minutes. George….depends on which one appears. Love…lots of minutes if he's healthy.

Look: we can't defend good teams playing man this year. Not gonna happen.

Lots of four guards. Outscore them. Limit turnovers.

Thoughts?
historian
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mdanderson said:

The guy who runs Locked on Baylor at YouTube hoped Baylor would lose today so they could rest for the ncaa tournament. I disagree with this thinking. Losing breeds losing.

That guy is Drake Toll, former Lariat & then Sicem365 reporter. His rakes are often unreliable, seeming more like click bait. I suppose his reasoning is that it worked well for the natty team: losing early in KC provided the rest & practice they needed so they could win six games in Indy.

The problem with that thinking, if that's the case (I'm guessing), is that the natty team was very unique. It was a covid year & we had exceptional talent up & down our roster including 4-5 players shooting 40% or better from beyond the arc, 3-4 who could be point guard, & multiple excellent defenders. Davion was national defensive PoY. It's absurd to compare our current roster to that one, even if same played back then.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
historian
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PaperBear89 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

PaperBear89 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

We have one coming in next year, and we were blessed to get him.
We'll see. I believe more in hungry dogs than fat cats.


You obviously don't know Ja'kobe Walter.
I stand by my statement, esepcially the "We'll see". College team sports recruiting is among the least scientific evaluations anybody can make about anything. It is judging a player on how they did against a bunch of boys who will be doing something else besides playing sports next year.


Some of the excitement we have over Ja'kobe is similar to our feelings last year over Keyonte & the year before over Sochan & Brown. Sometimes it works out (Sochan). Others it doesn't (some are disappointed with Keyonte).
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
bear2be2
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historian said:

PaperBear89 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

PaperBear89 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

We have one coming in next year, and we were blessed to get him.
We'll see. I believe more in hungry dogs than fat cats.


You obviously don't know Ja'kobe Walter.
I stand by my statement, esepcially the "We'll see". College team sports recruiting is among the least scientific evaluations anybody can make about anything. It is judging a player on how they did against a bunch of boys who will be doing something else besides playing sports next year.


Some of the excitement we have over Ja'kobe is similar to our feelings last year over Keyonte & the year before over Sochan & Brown. Sometimes it works out (Sochan). Others it doesn't (some are disappointed with Keyonte).
The problem with freshman isn't the players. It's the stage you are getting those players at in their development.

I have nothing against Kendall Brown or Keyonte George personally. Or Quincy Miller, Perry Jones and Isaiah Austin before them. It's just that none of them were good enough as freshmen to make significant contributions to the program in a one-year investment scenario.

Fortunately, we got an extra year out of Jones and Austin. But if either had left after their freshman year, they'd have joined Brown and likely George as talented, but frustrating players who were part of disappointing teams in March. And if Quincy Miller had been leaned on as heavily as some of these other guys were or had been on a worse, less experienced team, he would have too.
Crawfoso1973
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I think the disappointment in the one-and-done players is grounded in the unrealistic expectations of what a one-and-done player actually is. Not all of them (very few actually) will come in like Carmelo Anthony and dominate college basketball as 19 year old freshmen. A lot of the wailing and gnashing of teeth on this board is due to their own (unrealistic) expectations for these young men. Also, quite frankly the basketball IQ in our fan base is low overall. Most do not understand the NBA draft process and how NBA scouts think when analyzing prospects.
bear2be2
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Crawfoso1973 said:

I think the disappointment in the one-and-done players is grounded in the unrealistic expectations of what a one-and-done player actually is. Not all of them (very few actually) will come in like Carmelo Anthony and dominate college basketball as 19 year old freshmen. A lot of the wailing and gnashing of teeth on this board is due to their own (unrealistic) expectations for these young men. Also, quite frankly the basketball IQ in our fan base is low overall. Most do not understand the NBA draft process and how NBA scouts think when analyzing prospects.
I think the disappointment in one-and-done players is most of them are immature, inconsistent players. Any other explanation is overthinking it.

It's possible to have realistic expectations and view these guys as poor investments in most cases. When you only get these guys for one year, you can and should only judge them based on what you will/do get in that one year.
Crawfoso1973
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Sadly I think we ride or die with Flo for any kind of tournament run we have. Josh O has seemed out of sorts and not ready in the limited minutes he's received since dropping out of the rotation. Flo defensively he at least knows where to be positionally, even though he stands flat-footed when he arrives at said position. Offensively he is kind of like a center in football, despite his faults he is an elite screen-setter (even though he picks up at least 1 turnover per game setting moving screens).
Crawfoso1973
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I see your point and value your opinion, but the reality is the next 2 recruiting classes are loaded with potential one-and-done recruits. I doubt Drew will suddenly shake his fist at the clouds and say to hell with the McDonald's All Americans.
bear2be2
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Crawfoso1973 said:

I see your point and value your opinion, but the reality is the next 2 recruiting classes are loaded with potential one-and-done recruits. I doubt Drew will suddenly shake his fist at the clouds and say to hell with the McDonald's All Americans.
I know, but we didn't reach an elite level building our roster the way we have the last three years (including next year's class), and we haven't sniffed an elite level of play in March in either of the last two seasons. I expressed concerns about this philosophical change last year. Many disagreed.

I don't think this is the way you build championship teams.
Crawfoso1973
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It isn't 2018 any more. We ain't getting someone as good as Teague or Mitchell or Flagler and redshirting them a year in the era of transfer portal. We are still trying that with guys like Bonner and Grimes, but they are several tiers below in talent.
bear2be2
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Crawfoso1973 said:

It isn't 2018 any more. We ain't getting someone as good as Teague or Mitchell or Flagler and redshirting them a year in the era of transfer portal. We are still trying that with guys like Bonner and Grimes, but they are several tiers below in talent.
None of those guys needed to redshirt. They would have been impact players from Day 1. There are still a ton of impact transfers. That we swung and whiffed on Lohner doesn't mean there aren't good ones available. Every team ahead of us in the Big 12 standings brought one or more in.
Crawfoso1973
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bear2be2 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

It isn't 2018 any more. We ain't getting someone as good as Teague or Mitchell or Flagler and redshirting them a year in the era of transfer portal. We are still trying that with guys like Bonner and Grimes, but they are several tiers below in talent.
None of those guys needed to redshirt. They would have been impact players from Day 1. There are still a ton of impact transfers. That we swung and whiffed on Lohner doesn't mean there aren't good ones available. Every team ahead of us in the Big 12 standings brought one or more in.
Oh, that we can agree upon. We need to hit on a springy, defensive-minded forward in the portal. That would do worlds to help us be even better for next year to go with the talent we have coming in.
IowaBear
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HS doesn't always equate to college talent relying on Walter and Little to carry us next year is a bad idea. We lose almost all of our scoring aside from Cryer. And as much I love LJs offensive game is defensive game is BRUTAL. This team needs to bring in a proven scorer from the portal. One who's both offensive and defensive minded.
BearTruth13
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Our one and done heavy teams can be brutal to watch. I liked our 2010 team infinitely more than our 2012 team. I liked our 2020 team way more than our 2022 team. One paper 2012 and 2022 have more recruiting star power.

It is nothing against the players, but like others have said, you can't mesh well or develop enough in a year. We won a national championship with 3 and 4 star players that stayed until their junior and senior seasons. We relied heavily on the transfer portal.

I understand the desire for the most talented players available but the one and done thing just doesn't work out that much. Kentucky is king of the one and dones and they have the same number of national championships as Baylor in the last 20 years. UT had Kevin freaking Durant and didn't make it to the Sweet Sixteen.

I think we are getting away from what elevated our program over the last 5 years.
edible_waffles
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BearTruth13 said:

Our one and done heavy teams can be brutal to watch. I liked our 2010 team infinitely more than our 2012 team. I liked our 2020 team way more than our 2022 team. One paper 2012 and 2022 have more recruiting star power.

It is nothing against the players, but like others have said, you can't mesh well or develop enough in a year. We won a national championship with 3 and 4 star players that stayed until their junior and senior seasons. We relied heavily on the transfer portal.

I understand the desire for the most talented players available but the one and done thing just doesn't work out that much. Kentucky is king of the one and dones and they have the same number of national championships as Baylor in the last 20 years. UT had Kevin freaking Durant and didn't make it to the Sweet Sixteen.

I think we are getting away from what elevated our program over the last 5 years.
Beyond even us, few national champions were freshman-oriented (2012 Kentucky and 2015 Duke are the only two that come to mind)

As mentioned, our most successful teams (2010, 2012, 2017, 2021) were all upperclassmen oriented. This is where we succeed the most and where we make our deep runs.

While McDonald's All-Americans and high-ranking AAU players are great grabs for us, a one-and-done culture is not optimal for our continued success
bear2be2
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edible_waffles said:

BearTruth13 said:

Our one and done heavy teams can be brutal to watch. I liked our 2010 team infinitely more than our 2012 team. I liked our 2020 team way more than our 2022 team. One paper 2012 and 2022 have more recruiting star power.

It is nothing against the players, but like others have said, you can't mesh well or develop enough in a year. We won a national championship with 3 and 4 star players that stayed until their junior and senior seasons. We relied heavily on the transfer portal.

I understand the desire for the most talented players available but the one and done thing just doesn't work out that much. Kentucky is king of the one and dones and they have the same number of national championships as Baylor in the last 20 years. UT had Kevin freaking Durant and didn't make it to the Sweet Sixteen.

I think we are getting away from what elevated our program over the last 5 years.
Beyond even us, few national champions were freshman-oriented (2012 Kentucky and 2015 Duke are the only two that come to mind)

As mentioned, our most successful teams (2010, 2012, 2017, 2021) were all upperclassmen oriented. This is where we succeed the most and where we make our deep runs.

While McDonald's All-Americans and high-ranking AAU players are great grabs for us, a one-and-done culture is not optimal for our continued success
The worst part is having to rebuild your roster year after year after year.

One of the most fun parts of the 2021 run was seeing the years before culminate to that moment. That team grew together for years to get to that point.

Now we're re-shuffling the deck every year, and it's hard to build any continuity or consistency that way. All teams are going to have their distinct identities and traits, but when you're relying as heavily as we are on freshmen now, you're playing roulette every season.
 
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