When we don’t know who will return, and who Baylor will add, we can give a million caveats and not figure out next year’s team.
Still, we know there are a few questions that the staff will grapple with. Here are two that stick out to me.
1) Will Baylor stay “no middle” on defense? The Bears have used that defense since 2019-2020. During the first three seasons, Baylor ranked: 4, 22 and 13. During the title season, Baylor played awful defense returning from covid until the NCAA Tournament. But before the pause, Baylor ranked No. 8 defensively. During its NCAA Tournament run, Baylor also ranked No. 20 on defense (and that includes pounding teams, which meant playing walk-ons and not caring at the end). So we know that defense rocked.
Unfortunately last year’s team ranked No. 107 on defense. While I maintain almost all of Baylor’s issues related to personnel, there is a case that “no middle” doesn’t have the same bite it once did. So many teams run it that everyone has plenty of sets to try and overtake it. No middle also depends on overloading toward the side of the court where the ball is. Well, every good guard can now fire a pass from one side to the other, which means traditional man-to-man principles that say you play off your man if he’s more than one pass away no longer apply. Almost everyone is a pass away. And officials call way fewer charges as the flop rule got expanded (though this change isn’t as pronounced during the NCAA Tournament). That means the no middle defense which relies on a lot of help and flying around doesn’t work as well because those charges aren’t getting called like before.
There’s a case to still stay no middle. Most of Baylor’s problems were personnel. Iowa State stayed no middle and ranked No. 7 on defense. That might indicate a good team can stay elite running it. And again, if Baylor had more of the defensive elements it had the prior seasons, it could have stayed good.
I would lean toward switching to a more traditional man-to-man defense. I think no middle no longer confers the advantages it had. Baylor switched defenses to win a title. I think switching again would help it achieve that again.
2) Who plays point guard next season? I remain convinced Adam Flagler will enter and remain in the NBA Draft. Sam Vecenie has Flagler drafted in his latest mock. Flagler came close to leaving last season, and after five years in college, he has his degree and showed he can play point guard at a high-level.
That leaves Baylor with three options. The Bears could give Dale Bonner and LJ Cryer a crack at running it. Bonner showed out to end the season, but he also didn’t play well earlier in the year. Cryer has to prove he can distribute and at 6’1 is smaller for a point guard.
Baylor could elect to give Miro Little or Dantwan Grimes the shot. Both would be taking a major step up in competition, though each has a high ceiling.
Finally Baylor could elect to portal a point guard. The Bears had a good run--especially before injury--with James Akinjo. Maybe another point guard awaits in the portal.
If Cryer and Bonner return, I think they’re likely to get a real run at running the point, but I think there’s a good case Baylor should look to portal someone. That will depend on how willing others are to come back though if Baylor brings back another point guard.
historian said:
With Cryer & Bonner in the portal it would seem the point guard will be one of the new guys or getting someone new to transfer in. Is there anybody else on the remaining m roster who might serve that role?
