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Baylor Basketball

Two Biggest Questions for Baylor Basketball Next Season

March 31, 2023
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When we don’t know who will return, and who Baylor will add, we can give a million caveats and not figure out next year’s team. 

Still, we know there are a few questions that the staff will grapple with. Here are two that stick out to me. 

1) Will Baylor stay “no middle” on defense? The Bears have used that defense since 2019-2020. During the first three seasons, Baylor ranked: 4, 22 and 13. During the title season, Baylor played awful defense returning from covid until the NCAA Tournament. But before the pause, Baylor ranked No. 8 defensively. During its NCAA Tournament run, Baylor also ranked No. 20 on defense (and that includes pounding teams, which meant playing walk-ons and not caring at the end). So we know that defense rocked. 

Unfortunately last year’s team ranked No. 107 on defense. While I maintain almost all of Baylor’s issues related to personnel, there is a case that “no middle” doesn’t have the same bite it once did. So many teams run it that everyone has plenty of sets to try and overtake it. No middle also depends on overloading toward the side of the court where the ball is. Well, every good guard can now fire a pass from one side to the other, which means traditional man-to-man principles that say you play off your man if he’s more than one pass away no longer apply. Almost everyone is a pass away. And officials call way fewer charges as the flop rule got expanded (though this change isn’t as pronounced during the NCAA Tournament). That means the no middle defense which relies on a lot of help and flying around doesn’t work as well because those charges aren’t getting called like before. 

There’s a case to still stay no middle. Most of Baylor’s problems were personnel. Iowa State stayed no middle and ranked No. 7 on defense. That might indicate a good team can stay elite running it. And again, if Baylor had more of the defensive elements it had the prior seasons, it could have stayed good. 

I would lean toward switching to a more traditional man-to-man defense. I think no middle no longer confers the advantages it had. Baylor switched defenses to win a title. I think switching again would help it achieve that again. 

2) Who plays point guard next season? I remain convinced Adam Flagler will enter and remain in the NBA Draft. Sam Vecenie has Flagler drafted in his latest mock. Flagler came close to leaving last season, and after five years in college, he has his degree and showed he can play point guard at a high-level. 

That leaves Baylor with three options. The Bears could give Dale Bonner and LJ Cryer a crack at running it. Bonner showed out to end the season, but he also didn’t play well earlier in the year. Cryer has to prove he can distribute and at 6’1 is smaller for a point guard. 

Baylor could elect to give Miro Little or Dantwan Grimes the shot. Both would be taking a major step up in competition, though each has a high ceiling. 

Finally Baylor could elect to portal a point guard. The Bears had a good run--especially before injury--with James Akinjo. Maybe another point guard awaits in the portal. 

If Cryer and Bonner return, I think they’re likely to get a real run at running the point, but I think there’s a good case Baylor should look to portal someone. That will depend on how willing others are to come back though if Baylor brings back another point guard. 

Discussion from...

Two Biggest Questions for Baylor Basketball Next Season

5,148 Views | 7 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by DallasBear9902
historian
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With Cryer & Bonner in the portal it would seem the point guard will be one of the new guys or getting someone new to transfer in. Is there anybody else on the remaining m roster who might serve that role?
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
Crawfoso1973
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With the portal our roster holes are not as glaring as they seem. We really only need one combo guard, one forward, and one big from the portal and we are ready to crush again.

I'm confident in the trio of Walter / Grimes / Miro especially defensively. I also like Love to be much better a year removed from the ACL surgery. We get another portal guard who can score and distribute I think our backcourt will be better than last season especially when looking at both ends of the floor.

At forward Bridges will break out next year and put himself in the 1st round conversation. My money he will be our best player and team MVP next year. Fingers crossed we can get another portal forward in the Vital / Ish Wainwright mold to play with / split minutes with Bridges.

I love Josh O and think he will take huge strides this offseason, but I think we need a portal big to split minutes with him. Even if Missi re-classifies I think it would be wise to get a older dude with grown ass man strength who can set hard screens and eat glass.
Johnny Bear
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historian said:

With Cryer & Bonner in the portal it would seem the point guard will be one of the new guys or getting someone new to transfer in. Is there anybody else on the remaining m roster who might serve that role?

Grimes.
historian
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Makes sense. Too bad we don't have someone with real game experience. I would have loved to see Bonner develop as a true point guard, although he may not be what the coaches wanted or might not have wanted the job.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
Quinton
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The combo guards out there aren't great. All the "best" available guards are smaller scoring pg's. If we needed Pg Creighton, Hofstra, or N Texas kid would be just fine. But If we're going in on Grimes we have that settled.

Don't see a lot of great scoring guards with size. Wash St kid probably be the best, guy from lower level St Thomas (don't know if it will translate), and Battle from Temple. All aren't great yet all will have big interest. Our guard spot is just so light on high D1 experience even though talented. Again would put our guard talent assuming a decent transfer against the rest of the conference but 18-20 yr old v 22-23 yr olds (what Im assuming KU, K-State, Tex, Houston will have) isn't great. Now if they all develop and stay for next year.. that's a title contender and the big 12 favorite but one year at a time.

Forward I agree as there are many solid players moving that fit that mold. We'll see how it shakes out not as confident in the guard spot but like the potential. If they get a larger scoring guard (Wash St kid is probably the best fit) than I agree guard could be on balance just as good if not better due to much much improved defense.
Bakersdozen
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It doesn't matter what defense you play if you aren't committed to rebounding, stopping the fast break or playing tough. We didn't have the athleticism or commitment to play any kind of defense.
DallasBear9902
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No middle defense in many ways is about simplifying life for the defense by taking away half the court in the same way Art Briles's spread tried to simplify QB pre-snap reads.

We didn't have anywhere near the right personnel this year to run it effectively. Our guards were good straightline but lacked the shiftiness to scramble and recover (other than Bonner and at times Love). We didn't have rim protection and we didn't have an Uber-athletic big that could erase a lot of mistakes or switch all five positions. I've truly spent way too much of my life pondering whether Quincy Acy, pre-injury Everyday Jon or Mark Vital would be the ideal defensive big to build Baylor's defense around.

I don't think skip passes are really anything to worry about or obviate the use of the no middle defense. Skip passes will still lead to turnovers and with the right personnel group the time the ball is in the air is plenty for the defense to scramble and recover. Skip passes are really an odd comment to make here.

I haven't thought about the charge/flop. Do you have any statistical data to back up the impact on a PPP basis?

As far as going back to traditional man principles, you would also be changing up the offense, big time. An ideal defensive roster for traditional man is bigger and more lumbering than our speed and explosive units we've recently built. That kills off the three-man weave/heavy iso offense Baylor has run for the past 5 years.

An ideal traditional man defense ROSTER-in terms of body type and athleticism not necessarily defensive skill- probably looks something like Lace Dunn, (maybe) Anthony Jones, Epke Udoh, Quincy Acy and Davion Mitchell with Everyday Jon, Mark Vital and Tauren Prince in the rotation. You're looking for wingspan, girth and ability to guard on an island. That's a completely different offensive scheme with that personnel group. What offense do you run with that group?
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