Predicting the 2023 Big 12 Season: Week 1

Welcome back! It’s time to project the Big 12 season for every team once again. Over the next couple of months, I will go through the entirety of the upcoming season for each team in the Big 12, pick the conference champion, and make bowl projections.

Obviously, there is still a lot that can change but barring significant injuries for any of the teams we are in a good spot for some predictions.

With that said, let's do this!

Thursday, August 31st

UCF 46 vs. Kent State 16

I am not buying that Kent State has fixed the problems that led to them being the 90th-ranked scoring defense in the nation. John Rhys Plumlee puts together a Heisman mixtape as he totals five touchdowns and over 350 yards of total offense. Javon Baker goes for 100 yards and two scores through the air. The UCF defensive line dominates and shuts down the run game but the secondary does give up a couple of big plays to keep this game close early before the Knights pull away.

Friday, September 1st

Kansas 44 vs. Missouri State 20

Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal move the ball at a very efficient level in this one as the Jayhawks total over 450 yards of total offense. But defensively they struggle a little bit against Missouri State who keeps things close for the first half before Kansas runs away from them. Momentum continues into 2023 for Kansas.

Saturday, September 2nd

Baylor 47 vs. Texas State 15

The Bears disappointed last year and still beat Texas State by 35 points. Blake Shapen throws three touchdowns, Richard Reese and Dominic Richardson combine for over 200 rushing yards, and Arkansas transfer Ketron Jackson goes for 100 yards and a score. The defense racks up six sacks and forces three turnovers. Ashtyn Hawkins and the Bobcats' passing attack led by TJ Finley or Malik Hornsby will hit on a few big plays but it won’t be enough to overcome the turnovers and lack of a rushing attack.

TCU 39 vs. Colorado 16

This game might have the most hype of any game in the league as TCU is coming off of a CFP run and Deion Sanders is bringing the Buffs into Fort Worth for the first game of his tenure. Great storylines and headlines coming in but the game does not live up to the hype. The Horned Frogs move the ball with ease for the most part as Trey Sanders runs for 150 yards and two scores while Chandler Morris throws two touchdowns. The defense also plays well, forcing a couple of turnovers and just playing a solid game with all the experience the unit has at all three levels. Colorado plays hard in this one but they simply don’t have the talent or cohesiveness to keep it close.

Oklahoma 48 vs. Arkansas State 14

The Sooners roll in week one as Dillon Gabriel and this rushing attack pile up over 500 yards of total offense. Jalil Farooq and Jovantae Barnes total three touchdowns on the day. The defense shows signs of progress forcing two turnovers and only giving up 60 yards rushing on the day. Dasan McCullough, Ethan Downs, and Danny Stutsman have strong days on that side of the ball.

Iowa State 20 vs. Northern Iowa 14

The ugly game of the week will take place in Ames. Northern Iowa has played Iowa State seven times since 2011. They have won twice, lost in triple overtime once, and loss by less than a touchdown twice. The trend of close games continues as this is Northern Iowa’s Super Bowl. The Cyclones' defense dominates the day forcing three turnovers and piling up five sacks which ultimately saves them in week one.

Cincinnati 27 vs. Eastern Kentucky 8

The Bearcats will be led by a strong defense again in 2023 and that shows immediately during week one as this unit stifles Eastern Kentucky holding them under 150 yards of total offense. Preseason All-Big 12 DT Dontay Corleone makes his presence felt with two sacks and a forced fumble. On offense, Emory Jones and Corey Kiner get the run game going as they total over 200 yards on the ground which helps pace things for the unit. The passing game shows signs of worry but it won’t matter much in this one.

Texas 61 vs. Rice 12

The Longhorns get off to a fast start in week one as Steve Sarkisian and company show off all the weapons. Quinn Ewers throws four touchdowns before exiting the game early in the 3rd quarter. Xavier Worthy and JT Sanders combine for three of those scores. The run game goes for 250 yards as well as this is a total blowout. Rice was 121st in scoring defense last year. Texas will score as much as they want to.

Houston 33 vs. UTSA 34

This will easily be the best game of the weekend. Matthew Golden shows why he is one of the best receivers in the league as he goes for 100 yards and two scores. Donovan Smith moves the Cougars' offense for the most part but is unable to avoid a costly turnover or two and the Roadrunners take advantage scoring 10 points off his turnovers. UTSA QB Frank Harris leads a game-winning drive with two minutes left as UTSA hits a walk-off field goal for the win. Pure agony in week one for the Cougars.

Kansas State 45 vs. Southeast Missouri State 13

The defending Big 12 Champs start the season off with a comfortable win. Will Howard totals 300 yards and two scores while the combo of Florida State transfer Treshaun Ward and DJ Giddens combine for three scores on the ground. The defense has to adjust to some key losses so there will be a couple of defensive blunders but in general the defense plays sound football in the easy win.

Oklahoma State 37 vs. Central Arkansas 9

The Cowboys' defense completely shuts things down in this one as it forces four turnovers and piles up seven sacks with both Kendal Daniels and Collin Oliver having big days. Alan Bowman has an up-and-down day but the running game looks unstoppable. Jaden Nixon, Ollie Gordon, and Elijah Collins combine for nearly 300 yards and four scores on the ground.

West Virginia 17 at Penn State 34

Unfortunately for the Mountaineers, they face by far the toughest test of any Big 12 team in week one and it proves to be far too much for them. CJ Donaldson has a nice day but he is the only bright spot as the Nittany Lions pull ahead early and keep the lead from start to finish. A primetime game in Happy Valley is just about the worst way to start a season, tough break.

Texas Tech 48 vs. Wyoming 17

This is very much an offense vs. defense kind of game as I expect Texas Tech to be lethal on offense in the majority of the games they play in this year whereas Wyoming is going to rely on its defense to win. But Wyoming isn’t used to playing offenses like this and it is going to be a problem plus Wyoming’s lack of offense is going to lead to quick three-and-outs. Look for Tech to find momentum here and run away in this game as Tyler Shough starts the season with a 350-yard and four-touchdown performance. Austin Peay transfer Drae McCray will introduce himself to the league as he posts 150 yards receiving. Big start to the year for Joey McGuire and company as a massive challenge looms large in week two.

BYU 24 vs. Sam Houston 6

The Cougars' defense pitches a shutout in the first half and cruises to a dominant day. On the other side of the ball, things start off slowly but the dominant time of possession really wears on Sam Houston in the second half as UNLV transfer Aidan Robbins and Colorado transfer Deion Smith get going in the run game and Kedon Slovis throws two touchdowns. Not a dominant overall day by the Cougars overall but an easy win nonetheless.

Big 12 Standings

1. Baylor — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Iowa State — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Kansas — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Kansas State — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Oklahoma — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Oklahoma State — 1-0 (0-0)

1. TCU — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Texas — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Texas Tech — 1-0 (0-0)

1. BYU — 1-0 (0-0)

1. UCF — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Cincinnati — 1-0 (0-0)

13. Houston — 0-1 (0-0)

13. West Virginia — 0-1 (0-0)