SicEm365 Staff Predictions for Baylor's Homecoming Matchup against Iowa State

The SicEm365 Staff gives their predictions for Baylor’s (3-4, 2-2) Homecoming matchup against Iowa State (4-3, 3-1). Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. Saturday at McLane Stadium and will be streamed on ESPN+.

Colt Barber (4-3) — Iowa State 35, Baylor 24

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According to Caesars Sportsbook, Baylor is a three-point underdog against Iowa State, and the over/under is 47.5.

According to snaps played of the top 44 offensive and defensive players on each team, these are the two youngest teams in the Big 12. Iowa State has found more of an identity than the Bears until this point, but they aren’t without their own warts. I don’t see Baylor figuring out its home struggles this week though. 

Brian Ethridge (3-4) — Baylor 31, Iowa State 24

Oh, ye of little faith... just kidding. Again, no idea how Baylor slows down the ISU run game, but it's Homecoming, and Baylor gets it done.

Ashley Hodge (2-4) — Iowa State 31, Baylor 20

Every time I’ve predicted a Baylor loss, they’ve surprised me.  Why ruin a good thing?

David Smoak (5-2) — Iowa State 27, Baylor 23

I’m not one to use the comparison of scores when making a prediction. But Iowa State drilled Cincinnati on the road, Baylor survived, and the Cyclones are coming off a break and had time to tweak a few things that needed to be fixed, although they still have weaknesses as does Baylor.

Paul Catalina (3-4) — Iowa State 26, Baylor 16

Ultimately, the difference in this game is Iowa State is tough up front, and Baylor is not. We will need to see the Bears beat a good team to really know if they have improved. 

Craig Smoak (4-3) — Iowa State 30, Baylor 20

Neither offense has room to boast, but ISU has a clear advantage defensively and more of an identity, plus extra time to prepare. And the Bears have been anything but dominant at home. 

Travis Roeder (2-5) — Iowa State 34, Baylor 24

Iowa State has scored at least 27 in three of its four conference games, and Baylor is by far the worst defense they'll have faced all year. I think the bye week matters a lot and they come in prepared with a plan. Baylor's offense is able to find some big plays but does not generate enough consistency against a great defense. 

Sam Bradshaw (2-3) — Iowa State 24, Baylor 16

Baylor has improved since getting Shapen back and since making changes on the line and at STAR.  However, I think while both teams are similar in the turnover battle – one protects well, handles the red zone better, and can run better. ISU isn't great at running it, but it's a far cry from Baylor's frequent inability to do so. Baylor and ISU end up close enough on yards per drive, but the red zone and ISU’s ability to limit scoring from a distance wins the day.

Kendall Kaut (3-4) — Iowa State 28, Baylor 20

Hankins continues to make kicks. Baylor's wins feel a little fluky, and Iowa State isn't wonderful. But without a bye week for Baylor, I think the Clones take it. 

Grayson Grundhoefer (4-3) — Baylor 24, Iowa State 23

This game is likely going to be ugly for large chunks of it as I expect both of these offenses to have ups and downs on Saturday. Ultimately, Iowa State is 1-2 on the road with a loss to Ohio and a 30-point loss to Oklahoma. I think they struggle enough offensively to keep Baylor in it and then the most important position on the field comes into play late in the game – Blake Shapen>>>Rocco Becht. The Bears NEED a win at home, and they get it....barely.

Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports

Baylor has won each of its last two contests against Iowa State.

Jack Mackenzie (4-3) — Iowa State 31, Baylor 17

I don’t know if the Air-Bear attack will get off the ground this week. But ISU is clearly a tougher test. Unless the BU defense takes its own step up, I think Homecoming will end with a loss.

Garrett Ross (3-4) — Iowa State 28, Baylor 24

Until Baylor proves that they can win at home against a non-FCS opponent, I can’t pick them. It was nice to see the offense shake things up last week, but if you can’t run the ball, you’re in trouble. The Bears' defensive front still appears soft and will have their hands full against the Cyclones.

Emory Winter (3-4) — Iowa State 32, Baylor 21

Baylor hasn’t won a home game against an FBS opponent in over a year – 370 days to be exact but who's counting? Will the Bears win at home this season? Yes, but it won't be against Matt Campbell. 

Levi Caraway (6-1) — Iowa State 31, Baylor 27

Iowa State is too physical up front for the struggling Bears defense to match. I do think Baylor has a decent chance in this game if they can win the turnover battle and continue to play well on offense.