Predicting the 2024 Big 12 Season: Week 1

Welcome back! It’s time to project the Big 12 season for every team once again. Over the next couple of months, I will go through the entirety of the upcoming season for each team in the Big 12, pick the conference champion, and make bowl projections.

Obviously, there is still a lot that can change, but barring significant injuries for any of the teams, we are in a good spot for some predictions.

With that said, let's do this!

Thursday, August 29th

New Hampshire 13 at UCF 59

The Knights have a strong offense, and New Hampshire has a terrible defense, which is a recipe for disaster. RJ Harvey and Peny Boone combine for 250 yards and four touchdowns, while KJ Jefferson adds a couple of touchdowns of his own through the air to Xavier Townsend and Kobe Hudson. The UCF defense forces three turnovers and, despite giving up some yardage, ends up with a solid overall performance. Easy win here.

North Dakota State 27 at Colorado 44

This will be a back-and-forth game early, but the Bison offense can’t keep the pace up in the 2nd half. Shedeur Sanders and this elite group of wide receivers go for 350 yards and four touchdowns. The defense gives up quite a bit of yards but is able to force a couple of turnovers, which allows for the pullaway. Nice week one showing for Deion and company.

Lindenwood 14 at Kansas 55

Lindenwood lost by 30 or more points four times last year against FCS opponents. That does not bode well against a fully healthy Kansas team with a very strong offense. Jalon Daniels throws three touchdowns, with Lawrence Arnold and Quentin Skinner finding pay dirt. Devin Neal, Daniel Hishaw, and Savion Morrison combine to rush for over 300 yards as the Jayhawks offense moves the ball consistently all night. The game is over by halftime.

Southern Utah 10 at Utah 41

Utah dominates this game with a powerful rushing attack, a very strong return by Cam Rising, and a defense making a statement. Rising throws two touchdowns and runs for another while Micah Bernard and Jaylon Glover each score as well. The defense stifles Southern Utah on the way to an easy opening-day win.

Friday, August 30th

TCU 31 at Stanford 20

This is a tricky game on the road on a Friday night, which will keep the game competitive, but this matchup definitely favors the Frogs. TCU is going to be able to score points and Stanford is going to continue to struggle on that side of the ball. Josh Hoover roasts the Cardinal secondary with a 325-yard passing performance as he gets his talented group of pass catchers involved, especially Drake Dabney and Eric McAlister. Wide receiver Elic Ayomanor will get his 100 yards and a score as Stanford’s offense shows some flashes, but it is far from enough.

Saturday, August 31st

Penn State 28 at West Virginia 17

I expect this to be a battle and has upset potential for the Mountaineers, but it is hard to pick against this Penn State team with all they have returning. The Nittany Lions are going to be as good as anyone this season defensively, and the offense is due to take a big step forward. Garrett Greene will make some exciting plays, but the inconsistency of this offense is going to doom them in this one as they struggle to run the ball and convert on 3rd down. Penn State holds WVU to under 300 yards of total offense and forces two turnovers. The Mountaineers put up a fight at home and keep it close but they are running into a possible National Championship contender right out of the gates.

South Dakota State 14 at Oklahoma State 24

South Dakota State hasn’t lost a football game since 2022 when they lost to Iowa 3-7. They have won two straight FCS National Championships as well, so this is a bit scary. This game is very close early on, but as it progresses, the Pokes run game and defense just proves to be too much. Alan Bowman manages the game well as they ride Ollie Gordon to the finish line in the second half. The Heisman hopeful totals 150 yards and two scores in the first game of the season. It is closer than some expect, but ultimately, there is too much experience and depth from OSU as they end SDSU’s 29-game winning streak.

Towson 17 at Cincinnati 51

Towson gave up 193 rushing yards per game last year and now they are facing one of the best rushing attacks in the Big 12….that’s going to be a big problem. Corey Kiner has a field day as he goes for 180 yards and three scores before being taken out of the game. Indiana transfer QB Brendan Sorsby has a strong first game in a Bearcats uniform as he throws a pair of touchdowns to Tyrin Smith and Xzavier Henderson. This one is not close.

North Dakota 6 at Iowa State 31

This is a very complete performance by the Cyclones as they are in control from start to finish. Rocco Becht throws two touchdowns to Jayden Higgins while Abu Sama III adds two of his own on the ground. The defense controls things as they make life miserable for North Dakota. They end up forcing three turnovers and get after the quarterback to the tune of five sacks. 

Tarleton State 10 at Baylor 41

The Bears begin a very important season for Dave Aranda and the program as a whole. Toledo transfer quarterback Dequan Finn throws for two scores and runs for another as he totals 250 yards of total offense. The rushing attack led by Richard Reese totals 185 yards as the offensive line is able to get good movement up front. The defense gets five sacks and forces a couple turnovers as the Bears run away from Tarleton State in week one.

UNLV 37 at Houston 38

Shootout alert! Houston draws a high-powered Rebel offense in week one and hemorrhages points in Willie Ftitz’s debut. This is likely going to be a problem all season for Houston, but Donovan Smith saves the day. He totals 350 yards and five touchdowns as he carries them to a win. With three minutes to go and Houston down by two, he guides them 60 yards with three crucial third-down throws. Jack Martin comes out to attempt the game-winning field goal as time expires….it’s good! Cougars win a thriller.

UT Martin 9 at Kansas State 41

The Wildcats defense is about to be in UT Martin’s nightmares after this performance. They have too much experience, and it shows as they force three turnovers while piling up six sacks. KSU holds UT Martin under 200 yards of total offense. Then, the run game takes over offensively as Avery Johnson, DJ Giddens, and Dylan Edwards move the chains consistently, totaling 300 yards on the ground. I expect a boring game plan by the Wildcats in week one so that they do not show too much of the passing game, but this is an easy win thanks to a completely overwhelming defensive performance.

Abilene Christian 17 at Texas Tech 52

Lubbock is rocking for the first game of the season and the offense shows off some firepower. Tahj Brooks does his thing as he goes for 150 yards and a score but the Red Raiders make an effort to dial up the passing game. Behren Morton throws for 250 yards and four touchdowns while not playing at all in the 4th quarter. By the end of the game, it feels like all the primary pass catchers have scored, including five-star freshman Micah Hudson.

Southern Illinois 6 at BYU 17

Ugly, ugly game in Provo. The Cougars offense remains a major question mark as they struggle to convert 3rd downs and Gerry Bohanon shows quite a bit of rust after missing last season for USF. They go 2/11 on 3rd down, which keeps Southern Illinois in the game. Luckily, the defense plays a fantastic game and gives the offense a couple of short fields, which LJ Martin takes advantage of with a pair of scores. The Cougars survive a little bit of a scare.

New Mexico 20 at Arizona 48

The Wildcats face a decent New Mexico offense in week one and give up some points because of it, but it doesn’t change the end result. Noah Fifita throws four touchdown passes as he gets things rolling with his talented wide receiver core, including projected first-round NFL Draft pick Tetairoa McMillan, who scores twice. The offense has zero issues moving the ball as they score early and often in a rout to a comfortable win.

Wyoming 19 at Arizona State 21

This game is going to be ugly as Wyoming tries to get another big out-of-conference win against the Big 12 after beating Texas Tech last year. I think this game will play the way Wyoming wants it to be played as they slow the game down and play ball control. Unfortunately for them, the Sun Devils hit on a few big plays from Sam Leavitt, who shows some major flashes of potential. He finishes with 285 yards and two scores, including a game-winning drive, as he wills Arizona State to a narrow win.

Big 12 Standings

1. Baylor — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Iowa State — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Kansas — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Kansas State — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Arizona — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Oklahoma State — 1-0 (0-0)

1. TCU — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Colorado — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Texas Tech — 1-0 (0-0)

1. BYU — 1-0 (0-0)

1. UCF — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Cincinnati — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Arizona State — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Utah — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Houston — 1-0 (0-0)

16. West Virginia — 0-1 (0-0)