NCAA Bracketology: Baylor Men's Basketball Safely Off the Bubble?

Bracket Matrix — the best place to look for a compilation of bracket predictions — has the Bears as the best No. 10 seed with an average seed of 9.77 across all of the participating 104 brackets.

Baylor’s highest seed in any of the 104 contributing brackets is a No. 9 seed while the lowest is a single No. 12 seed from yesterday’s Bleacher Report entry. 

The Athletic: No. 9 seed vs Connecticut in Florida’s West Region (Raleigh then San Francisco)

5-Star Bracketology: No. 9 seed vs Connecticut in Florida’s West Region (Raleigh then San Francisco)

On3: No. 9 seed vs Connecticut in Florida’s West Region (Raleigh then San Francisco)

ESPN: No. 9 seed vs Marquette in Auburn’s South Region (Lexington then Atlanta)

The Athletic: No. 10 seed vs Mississippi State in Florida’s West Region with St. John’s as the No. 2 seed (Providence then San Francisco)

Fox Sports: No. 10 seed vs Missouri in Auburn’s South Region with Michigan State as the No. 2 seed (Cleveland then Atlanta)

SB Nation: No. 10 seed vs UCLA in Duke’s East Region with Tennessee as the No. 2 seed (Cleveland then Newark)

RotoWire: No. 10 seed vs Memphis in Florida’s West Region with St. John’s as the No. 2 seed (Wichita then San Francisco)

SicEm365

Data from Bracket Matrix as of Noon CT on Saturday, March 15, 2025.

Bubble Watch: 

While the Baylor Bears are not in a precarious position relative to the bubble, a couple of conference tournament games going the wrong way today and tomorrow could make things more worrisome.

The Mountain West, American, A-10 and Big West all offer some bid-stealer drama.

Colorado State and Boise State are both at-large bubble teams with Boise State having what many consider to be the slightly better resume. If Boise State wins the MWC Championship (5:00 p.m. CT on CBS) that is better for other bubble teams.

In the Big West, UC San Diego has the better resume but UC Irvine is also a bubble team.

In the A-10 — with VCU in a tight game against Loyola Chicago at the time of writing — George Mason, St. Joeseph’s or Loyola would be true bid stealers with VCU being the only team on the bubble for an at-large spot.

Similarly in the American, Memphis is the only team left in that league’s conference tournament with an at-large case. In fact, a Tiger’s loss would certainly shrink the at-large pool by a bid since they are a lock. Tulane, UAB and UNT are the candidates left in the AAC to steal that bid.

The Power Six basketball conferences will not have an N.C. State-style Cinderella this year, and the other conferences not mentioned do not have teams with bubble-strength resumes.

All in all, Baylor’s question is just seed and location at this point.