10 Predictions for Baylor Basketball: Tournament Finish, Defensive Improvement, Team MVP

SicEm365 Co-Editor Grayson Grundhoefer offers his predictions for Baylor's upcoming basketball season.

1. Cameron Carr is Baylor’s leading scorer and the Most Valuable Player

What we saw at the World University Games translated into the two exhibition matchups for redshirt sophomore wing Cameron Carr, as it appears he put together a really strong offseason. The leaping ability, speed, and length really stand out about his game, and it’s going to put a lot of pressure on opponents nightly.

2. Baylor sweeps TCU for the first time since 2022.

The Horned Frogs have been a thorn in the side of Baylor every single year, despite being a very up-and-down program across the last few seasons. Just like in football, they seem to care about these matchups more than the Bears, and that needs to flip. Baylor is a much better team on paper this season, while I project TCU as a bubble or non-tournament team. It’s time for Baylor to really pour it on the Frogs and send them to the coaching carousel this offseason.

3. Obi Agbim is the player who controls Baylor’s ceiling and floor.

The Wyoming transfer lit it up in the World University Games as he averaged 20.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.7 steals while shooting 45.5% from beyond the arc. But in the two scrimmages, Obi Agbim came back down to earth against Grand Canyon and Indiana. He went 3-for-18 from the floor and 0-for-6 from deep while scoring just seven total points. Agbim doesn’t play great defense, isn’t a true initiator of the offense and he doesn’t get to the free-throw line well. Baylor needs his shooting and scoring on the court, but if he is off, it is hard to justify playing him a full workload. If he had played better in these first two games, Baylor would have beaten Grand Canyon by 15-plus and beaten Indiana. A silver lining here is that he scored at least 11 points in all but one game last year, so this may be fluky.

4. Bears suffer three losses in the non-conference. 

Baylor faces another tough non-conference schedule with matchups against Washington, Creighton, St. John’s, plus another strong team in Las Vegas that’s yet to be determined, at Memphis and Louisville. The Bears should cruise through the rest of the schedule, but I think they will stumble early in the season against good competition.

5. Dan Skillings is the team's most consistent performer

I have been a massive fan of Cincinnati transfer Dan Skillings since he committed, and that has grown more and more this offseason. His energy, motor, rebounding, size and paint touches are massive for this team, but the proven scoring at the Power Four level is the key here. As a sophomore, he posted double figures in 18 of the Bearcats' 23 conference and postseason games to end the year. He has done it before, and so far, so good. He posted at least 13 points in all six World University games and both exhibition games against Grand Canyon and Indiana. In the eight contests combined this offseason, he is averaging 15.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.2 turnovers, 54% from the floor and 39% from deep.

6. Baylor starts 2-4 in conference play but closes out 7-5.

The opening stretch of the schedule is very tough as this team faces a slate that includes TCU, Iowa State, Houston, at Oklahoma State, at Kansas and Texas Tech. I think Baylor starts off slowly in Big 12 play but turns it around and gains momentum toward the end of the season, finishing with a strong 9-9 conference record. Historically, that record should put the Bears inside the top six or seven in the standings by the end of the season.

7. Tounde Yessoufou solidifies himself as the Bears' next top 10 pick early in the season.

Baylor continues its run of first-round picks with Tounde Yessoufou, but the buzz is going to grow with him as the season begins. Most mock drafts have him as a lottery pick, so this isn’t a surprise, but I expect the media to really start talking about him in the same breath as the group just below the top three of Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer and AJ Dybantsa. He’s going to be really good and should be consistent for much of the season right off the bat.

8. Baylor beats BYU by double-digits at Foster Pavilion.

Point guard Robert Wright faces Baylor just once this season, and it is inside Foster Pavilion. My guess is the fans will really show up for this one, and the coaching staff certainly will be wanting to win this one badly. I expect some major hunting by Carr, Yessoufou and Skillings to make sure they attack Wright early and often. Ultimately, the Cougars are a good team, but this feels like a game that will be a top highlight of the Bears' season as the physicality and length wear down BYU.

9. Baylor makes the Big 12 Tournament Championship for the first time since 2014.

The Bears have not cared much about the Big 12 Tournament over the past decade, and that made some sense, but with the way the NCAA Tournament has gone recently, I think there will be a renewed focus here. While it can take some out of you, it can also give you the needed momentum to end the season. Over the past five seasons, the teams that played in the Big 12 Tournament Championship have included a National Champion, a National Runner-Up, one Elite 8, four Sweet 16s, two second-round exits and one first-round loss. I think Baylor pushes its chips in here and makes a strong run before losing in the championship game to Kansas, as the Jayhawks shoot twice as many free throws in the game.

10. Baylor fails to advance to the Sweet 16

The biggest weaknesses on this team are the rim protection and the lack of a true point guard. These two things will show up at times this year and be very frustrating, given that you think this team should have Wright and High Point transfer center Juslin Bodo Bodo to help those areas. It will cost this team in the first or second round of the tournament. 

Other Preseason Basketball Content:

• MBB Season Preview: How Baylor's Guard Play Will Determine Ceiling of Drew's New Roster
• Basketball Season Preview: Why Baylor's Wings Will be the Strength of This Year's Roster
• Basketball Season Preview: Baylor Enters 2025-2026 with Big Questions in Frontcourt
• The Bear Cast: Baylor Basketball Practice Insight, Breakout Players, Recruiting Evaluations