Now that all the bowl matchups have been announced who do the Big 12 teams face and what can a quick glance at the stats tell us about each matchup? This year has once again seen a very tough slate of bowl matchups with every game as underdogs and five of the six matchups against ranked opponents.
#4 Oklahoma takes on #1 LSU
#7 Baylor takes on #5 Georgia
Unranked Texas takes on #11 Utah
Unranked Iowa State takes on #15 Notre Dame
#25 Oklahoma State takes on Texas A&M
Unranked Kansas State takes on #23 Navy
We’ll mostly be looking at yardage here. My preferred metric for this is yards per drive which doesn’t bias based on explosive plays or style of play like yards per play would and doesn’t bias with play count like total yards. Each YPD chart shows what a given team averaged against Power 5 opponents compared to what other P5 teams averaged against them. This gives a look at whether the actual YPD average was good, fair, or poor but also gives context for what is normal against a particular opponent. I’ll also throw in a couple other charts on a game specific basis for things that jumped out to me.
For the Big 12 games we’re going to go in reverse selection order here and save the biggest games for last.
Liberty Bowl - Kansas State vs #23 Navy
The Wildcats face a Navy team who is ranked and is a much tougher team than fans give them credit for. KSU fans hoped for a Power 5 opponent but once Missouri’s bowl ban was upheld and the SEC got three teams in the NY6 or Playoff there was always a chance that the SEC would choose to leave the Liberty Bowl open. Once the above happened it was going to be one of the Texas, Liberty, Belk, Outback, Music City, or Taxslayer bowl without a bowl eligible team to fill that spot. I do think the Liberty still would have taken KSU had they picked a couple spots earlier in the selection process anyway. They make a ton of sense for that bowl given traveling fans and how they haven’t been there in the last few years.
Navy Offense vs KSU Defense
The Midshipmen attack defenses with a productive offense. The service academies are usually very good with the flexbone option schemes and Navy is no exception. All three of them are in the top 17 of the country in yards per drive and Navy is #12. They struggled to move it on Notre Dame, Air Force, and Memphis but gave almost everyone else a hard time.
One of the things that makes them such a handful is their ability to extend drives. With their offense designed to consistently get 3-4 yards each play and slowly chip away at defenses it’s really difficult to get them off the field. Below you see how elite they are at converting their third down attempts on either third or fourth down.
The KSU defense has been a strong unit this season for the most part. They had some struggles with several games but did outstanding against KU, ISU, and Mississippi State. However they haven’t played an option team yet. The last time I remember Kleiman’s staff playing an option team it was the 2017 FCS playoffs against Wofford where they demolished an extremely productive Terrier offense. (Side Note: My video preview of Wofford’s offense was one of the more fun and time consuming previews I’ve done. Take a look if you want to understand the flexbone.)
KSU Offense vs Navy Defense
Defensively the Midshipmen are better than I have seen from service academies in a while. Usually you have a hard time with the offense and the defense tries hard but is outmatched. This defense isn’t exactly following that pattern. They had outstanding efforts against Memphis, SMU, Tulsa, and ECU and average giving up less than their opponents average elsewhere.
KSU’s offense has been a physical unit that hit a high mark against Oklahoma that has struggled in other games but has come on strong down the stretch. Their worst outing was Oklahoma State but they have been more productive recently.
My Initial Take:
Navy’s defense is much better than you usually see from the service academies. Usually the total yards and points look decent but the per-possession numbers tend to falter. Here that does not appear to be the case. KSU has a good opponent on their hands but the key will still be handling that triple option and their staff’s experience handling it in multiple FCS playoff runs makes me lean towards a good outcome for the Wildcats.
Texas Bowl: #25 Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M
OSU was a pretty fair pick for the Texas Bowl as they are probably the most regionally known Big 12 team in Houston outside of the Texas schools or OU and were a very likely team to end up here. In addition they haven’t played in a Houston based bowl since Les Miles was their coach.
Much like any year the SEC sends the Aggies to any bowl against Big 12 opponents they avoid the Texas schools. If A&M plays any of the Big 12 teams from Texas in any game that isn’t a New Year’s Six bowl I will be very surprised. They had opportunities to be matched against UT, Baylor, or TCU in 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2018 which is a pretty obvious trend.
To be fair no Texas team would have been available this year. Baylor was locked into the New Years Six, TCU or Tech were not eligible, and UT wasn’t going to be available given the bowl selection order of the Big 12. Both the Alamo and Camping World Bowl were not going to pass up Bevo’s tv brand or giant fanbase which means the only bowls that could potentially pair the two was not going to get the chance.
OSU Offense vs Texas A&M Defense
The Cowboys draw the only unranked opponent in this matchup and it’s strength on strength with the explosive Cowboy offense going against the A&M defense. The Cowboys however might be missing dual threat Quarterback Spencer Sanders and Doak Walker finalist Chuba Hubbard in addition to already losing one of the Big 12’s best receivers in Tylan Wallace. They haven’t had a below par performance in yards per drive except their games against UT and Texas Tech. Against Tech they had a horrible first half and then went off for 43 yards per drive in half two. Against Texas they faced UT before some injuries set in for the Texas secondary as well. When OSU is at full strength they are a handful on offense.
The Aggie defense has been pretty good for the most part. Arkansas was a big underperformance but they were able to do really well against Auburn and South Carolina who aren’t world beaters on offense but give you some matchup issues. They also did well against UGA and kept a struggling A&M offense in that game. Oklahoma State should be one of the better offenses A&M has faced if they come in with both Sanders and Hubbard but that is a very big if with Sanders coming off hand surgery and Hubbard having to consider the injury risk should he decide to go pro.
A&M Offense vs OSU Defense
On the other side of the ball it’s been a bit of a struggle for A&M. They lit up South Carolina and MSU but have mostly struggled against their schedule in the other Power 5 games. They haven’t cleared 35 yards per drive in any of them and it’s a mix of good and bad defenses in that group so it’s not tied to opponent strength.
One of the bigger struggles for this group has been consistency in the passing game. First they have largely struggled to protect their passers. Outside of a surprising effort against Clemson and a perfect outing against Mississippi State they have allowed at least 5.7% sacks to every P5 opponent and UTSA who’s strength in their defensive line. (UTSA’s comparison figure is their season average.) LSU and Ole Miss in particular gave A&M serious issues here.
When you take yards per passing attempt and then modify it to include sack yardage and sacked attempts you get this following chart. The grayed out parts of the column are the difference between raw yards per attempt and the sack modified number. As you can see A&M has been pretty poor in this metric outside of the MSU game and well below what opponents usually allow. They lost their very productive Tight End Sternberger from last year and his heir apparent went down with an injury and that void looks to be unfilled so far. This could be an opportunity for an OSU team that has six current or former defensive backs starting for them and can provide various types of coverage calls to give Mond some different looks.
The Cowboy defense has been up and down. They dominated the two teams from Kansas but had some less than ideal performances elsewhere. It’s not a pushover but the youth on this group is very evident and they should be much better in future years as they mature.
My Initial Take: Will OSU have Hubbard and Sanders? Hubbard’s game breaking plays can turn a game in a heartbeat and he makes the rest of the offense better. His run against TCU shows his speed.
Sanders also allows for much more of the QB run game that can help get Hubbard loose. Hubbard, the threat of Sanders running, and the threat of now-injured Tylan Wallace caused Texas Tech to overcommit schematically to those three.
They are already without Wallace and that changes how teams play them. Take away Sanders and the need to get extra bodies against the run is reduced dramatically making things tougher on Hubbard. I trust Gundy will have things schemed up well but my opinion of who wins really is impacted by if OSU playing with those two. A&M is 7-5 and won’t be an easy out and OSU will likely need two of their big three here.
Camping World Bowl: Iowa State vs #16 Notre Dame
The Cyclones are one of the best 7-5 teams in the nation. Every loss except KSU was a narrow one to a ranked team while KSU sits just outside the top 25 and that was a one score game until three minutes left. They drew a big brand blueblood that was highly ranked and went to the playoff last year in Notre Dame. The Cyclones think they are better than their record and have a perfect opportunity to prove it.
ISU Offense vs Notre Dame Defense
The Iowa State offense has been very good the last two years since Brock Purdy took over and have been a productive group in every game prior to the Kansas State loss where KSU really limited them.
The Irish defense is outstanding statistically. USC was able to light them up a bit with over 40 yards per drive but for the most part they slow teams down. I do think ISU will be one of the best offenses they have faced and should outperform Notre Dame’s recent performances.
Notre Dame Offense vs ISU Defense
On the other side of the ball the Irish offense is productive but still not where they want it to be. They did serious damage to USC and to their non-P5 opponents but haven’t set the world on fire in their other games. The Michigan game was their worst outing but their average against P5 teams is still below the comparison figure without that game.
The Cyclones are known for their three safety & three man front defense and it has been a capable unit for them in 2019 that has held every opponent below or very close to their average against other P5 teams.
Explosive Plays
One stat that could bode well for Iowa State is that they do a much better job of Notre Dame at creating big plays. Both defenses limit them well but ISU has a decided edge in making them. In a likely defensive battle I can potentially see a big play for Tarique Milton, Breece Hall, or Deshaunte Jones being a difference maker as Campbell’s staff does a good job scheming them into good looks.
My Initial Take:
I’ll be surprised if either team wins going away. Both are sound defensively and that should make it a competitive game. I don’t know enough about Notre Dame’s personnel on defense to guess at how they match up to Iowa State schematically but this looks like a solid matchup.
Alamo Bowl: Texas vs #11 Utah
After a humbling loss to Oregon in the PAC 12 title game the Utah Utes fall to the Alamo Bowl instead of the playoff spot they had been hoping for. Texas comes in after a disappointing season where they had higher expectations than 7-5 or the Alamo Bowl. The Alamo Bowl got the kind of matchup they wanted with a name brand and a team that was in playoff contention until the final week of the season.
Texas Offense vs Utah Defense
The Longhorn offense has been a productive unit this fall in yardage despit facing some pretty strong defenses. They draw another good one against Utah who’s statistics are outstanding.
Utah’s defense is very good and has been better than par in each game. The two dominating performances were holding ASU and Cal below ten yards per drive. Granted Cal had a third string QB who struggled in his only other two drives outside of that game but ASU isn’t bad and Utah stonewalled them.
The Longhorn defense was far from expectations but has been playing much better than their low point against Kansas. Their best game was OSU relative to par and they will have their hands full with Utah.
Explosive Plays
Utah does a good job creating big plays and over 70% have come in the air. They love their tailback Zach Moss who has 13 runs of 20+ yards but the passing game is where they crush teams for keying too hard on him. At first glance this is very bad for a Texas defense that has given up tons of big passing plays this season. The one spot where it looks like it might not be quite as bad is that Texas has been MUCH better over the last four games since getting some injured players back after the TCU game. So much so that they went from giving up significantly more big plays than the opponent typically gets to giving up less. UT will need to bottle up the big plays if they want to win in San Antonio.
Sacking Utah
One of the big areas Oregon was able to exploit was Utah’s pass protection sacking the Utes 6 times. Texas hasn’t been very effective at getting to the QB but with extra time to prepare and some valuable film from the Oregon game it needs to be a focus for UT.
My Initial Take:
This game is a tough one for a Texas team that just fired or reassigned it’s coordinators. The Utes aren’t likely to look past this game after an embarassment on national television against Oregon even if they are disappointed with not reaching the playoff. Utah is a team that dominated most of the season but lost to the only two teams it played that didn’t lose 40% of their regular season games. So Utah might not be as good as the stat sheet but they are very good and will probably win against a UT team who’s focus is anyone’s guess given the upheaval in Austin.
Sugar Bowl: #7 Baylor vs #5 Georgia
Two teams that had very real playoff hopes until losses on title game weekend meet in New Orleans. UGA is back after being humbled by Texas a year ago coming off of a blowout loss to LSU. Baylor is heading to the Sugar Bowl after almost winning a spot in the playoff with a third string QB in overtime. The roster questions in this one are prevalent. How healthy are Baylor’s top two QB’s? Will UGA have key NFL draft hopefuls sit out?
Baylor Offense vs UGA Defense
Baylor’s offense is an above average unit this season when it has been at full strength but given the absence of standout Left Tackle Connor Galvin for several games, attempts to redshirt upperclassman Xavier Newman, and injuries to Charlie Brewer it’s been up and down. The best games were probably the OSU and KSU games.
The Bulldog defense had a tough day against LSU and Florida but has largely held down the rest of their schedule. Getting Kentucky in a rainstorm helped limit the next best offense on the list and UGA has handled the rest of the group effectively. They will be among the best defenses that Baylor has faced this year.
After a very poor outing preventing negative plays against Oklahoma the Bears will be taking on a very good UGA defense that might not be as prolific in creating negative plays. Outside of three games UGA hasn’t really made a living on inflicting tackles for loss. It’s certainly different than what OU’s trend was in this area.
We see a similar effect in sack percentage. Other than Tennessee and their two freshman tackles they really aren’t getting the QB very often. That could bode well for a Baylor team that gave up 18%+ sack percentage in three games but gave up only 5% in their other P5 games.
UGA Offense vs Baylor Defense
The Georgia offense has had a tougher go of it over the last month with a couple receivers out but is above average over the course of the season for their schedule. Their best outings were Tennessee and Florida while the Auburn and Texas A&M games were games where they didn’t move the ball much.
The Baylor defense has been pretty solid throughout the year and has been a dramatic turnaround from last year. They struggled on third down against Oklahoma in the first matchup but limited the Sooners in round two. Aside from that the Bear defense was able to limit their opponents in almost every game. The most dominant game was Kansas but the games against ISU, OSU, UT, and the rematch against OU were probably more impressive.
My Initial Take:
This game is one where the defenses are better than the offenses and it should be a close game. I’ll obviously have more on this game when the Sugar Bowl stats preview article drops but how we feel about each team’s chances can swing wildly with who decides to play for UGA and what the status of Baylor’s top two QB’s is for the game. Not only can they play but how close to 100% are they?
Peach Bowl: #4 Oklahoma vs #1 LSU
Oklahoma comes into this matchup as a 12.5 point underdog and many are not giving Oklahoma much of a chance. LSU has a lot of resume wins but there are some weak points OU can potentially hit here.
LSU Offense vs Oklahoma Defense
LSU is one of the best offenses in the country and with Heisman winner Joe Burrow brings arguably the best passing attack in the nation with them.They have lit up every defense that they have faced and the Mississippi State and Vanderbilt figures below are skewed downward by mop up time.
For the first time since Bob Stoops was the coach Oklahoma isn’t worse than every other Big 12 defense in common-opponent yards per drive. The Sooner defense was dramatically better this season and did it with a gambling and blitzing defense that seeks to inflict negative plays. LSU will be the best offense they have faced.
Oklahoma Offense vs LSU Defense
On the other side of the ball Oklahoma’s offense is still the very productive unit it has been known for being under Lincoln Riley although they aren’t quite as sharp as the last two seasons. The rematch against Baylor is the only game in which OU was slowed down. Anytime your starters average over 50 yards per drive you are moving the ball extremely well.
LSU’s defense has been up and down and is way off of their usual standard defensively. They struggled against Texas, Florida, and Alabama. However they shut down less prolific Auburn, MSU, A&M, and UGA offenses. They allowed over 40 yards per drive to each of them and really had to rely on their offense to bail them out. Texas averaged 51 yards per drive against them and that was more than any Big 12 team surrendered to the Longhorns. That doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence going against a very capable OU offense.
Oklahoma’s Run Game
With OU adjusting their offense to Jalen Hurts and his strengths this year you have to shut down their running attack to limit them. They average around 20 non-sack carries by the QB since the ISU game and are very productive even without the long carries I call out as outliers. LSU’s run defense has been good but not quite great and will get a big test here.
Explosive Plays
These two are very good on generating explosive plays. Both are over 10% on creating them while LSU is better at preventing them statistically.
My Initial Take:
LSU’s ability to break single coverage in the passing game seems like a good matchup against OU’s defense that is undersized but uses stunts, blitzes, and aggressive coverages to compensate. On the other side of the ball the one flaw with OU’s offense this fall is they have been somewhat spotty against tight single coverage and I expect LSU to make them prove they can get execute against it.
This matchup is going to favor LSU. The best path for OU to win this is to use their very difficult to defend running game, variety of formations, and use of Hurts as a runner to put the kind of long drives together that defined the tail end of their season and limited TCU & OSU to 9 and 10 possessions. This would have the effect of limiting LSU’s drives and wearing out the Tiger defense. From there they need their stunts and blitzes to get home and disrupt LSU into misfiring. LSU will get big plays in this game but the gamble is that OU would get stops as well while their own prolific offense goes and scores on lengthier drives. However the Oklahoma offense must protect the ball much better than they usually do for this to work.
I don’t expect anyone to shut LSU’s offense down. With that said Texas, Florida, and Alabama were able to get into shootouts with the Tigers so an offense as capable as OU should be able to do some damage. Whether it’s enough to keep up is the question and given the player suspension rumors it’s a likely LSU win.
Conclusion
The Big 12 has the hardest lineup of any conference in the bowl schedule. Underdogs across the board, two top five opponents, four in the top 16, and all but one ranked. It’s a challenging slate but one that presents a lot of opportunity for the league to make some headlines.
I do take exception to a statement you made re: Texas A&M "avoiding" the Texas schools for bowl games 20014-2018. The SEC controls, for the most part, the bowl assignments in the second tier of SEC affiliated bowls. While each school has discussions with the SEC office re the bowls available to them, the SEC office makes the ultimate decision. A&M's assigned bowls since their departure from the B12: 2012 (Cotton) vs OU, 2013 (Chick Fil A) vs Duke, 2014 (Liberty) vs W VA, 2015 (Music City) vs Louisville, 2016 (TX Bowl) vs K St, 2017 (Belk) vs Wake Forest, 2018 (Gator) vs NC St. I do know that TAMU didn't really want to play K St again after just playing them in 2016.
I don't see many opportunities to have played TCU, TTU or BU in that time span, especially with the B12 schools' records those years. Playing Texas, on the other hand, is a more convoluted situation, with each side pointing fingers at the other. Neither side seems to want to play each other in a "meaningless" bowl, or even on a regular basis. It will take some time for those two schools to put aside their differences and to start to play each other in FB.
I do take exception to a statement you made re: Texas A&M "avoiding" the Texas schools for bowl games 20014-2018. The SEC controls, for the most part, the bowl assignments in the second tier of SEC affiliated bowls. While each school has discussions with the SEC office re the bowls available to them, the SEC office makes the ultimate decision.
I can understand as the phrasing was awkward but I meant to imply the SEC avoids pairing them with Texas schools. Five chances in six seasons were passed up.
"Much like any year the SEC sends the Aggies to any bowl against Big 12 opponents they avoid the Texas schools."
Quote:
A&M's assigned bowls since their departure from the B12: 2012 (Cotton) vs OU, 2013 (Chick Fil A) vs Duke,
Those first two were under old bowl contracts and I am not sure the sec had as much input then contractually.
Quote:
2014 (Liberty) vs W VA, 2015 (Music City) vs Louisville, 2016 (TX Bowl) vs K St, 2017 (Belk) vs Wake Forest, 2018 (Gator) vs NC St. I do know that TAMU didn't really want to play K St again after just playing them in 2016.
I don't see many opportunities to have played TCU, TTU or BU in that time span, especially with the B12 schools' records those years. Playing Texas, on the other hand, is a more convoluted situation, with each side pointing fingers at the other. Neither side seems to want to play each other in a "meaningless" bowl, or even on a regular basis. It will take some time for those two schools to put aside their differences and to start to play each other in FB.
With the "pool of six" (Liberty, Texas, Belk, Gator, Music City, Outback Bowls) potentially placing A&M in either the Liberty or Texas Bowl (it's not a draft order between the six) it's not hard to see that the SEC could have placed them in the following spots against Texas teams and chose not to.
2014- A&M could have easily been paired in the Texas Bowl against UT instead of WVU in the Liberty
2015- A&M could have been in the Texas Bowl against Tech instead of Music City Vs UL
2016- A&M could have been in the Liberty Vs TCU instead of the Texas Bowl Vs KSU
2017- Could have been in the Texas Bowl Vs UT instead of the Belk Vs Wake Forest
2018- Could have played Baylor in the Texas Bowl. Instead played NC State in the Gator
2019- The one year under these contracts with no TX team available
Now I understand they don't want to repeat bowl destinations and we all want to mix in new teams. However when it's annually passing up any chance to pair off against Texas teams it's likely a willful decision for whatever reason.
That doesn't necessarily mean that anyone is scared of any matchup- I just think them facing the Texas teams outside of a New Years six matchup is extremely unlikely given the trend. So the annual A&M Vs (any Texas team from the Big 12) bowl predictions we see every year is likely wrong if it's for the Liberty Bowl or Texas Bowl.
An additional point may also be made that the other Texas schools don't want to play A&M either. I do remember that a BU coach once said (paraphrasing - Kim Mulkey) "A&M left us...why should we play them anymore" (actually she equated it to more to like a divorce & having further sex.) Also, DeLoss Dodds stated that their "schedule was full" for any future regular season games. And I can attest to the fact that Texas did not want to play A&M in some previous bowl games (source - media friend in press box in Austin overhearing conversation between two athletic staffers).
For transparency, I am an A&M graduate and my son just graduated from BU. I have never understood the animosity between the 2 fan bases...I have always pulled for BU when not playing A&M, and attend multiple BU games each year.
An additional point may also be made that the other Texas schools don't want to play A&M either. I do remember that a BU coach once said (paraphrasing - Kim Mulkey) "A&M left us...why should we play them anymore" (actually she equated it to more to like a divorce & having further sex.) Also, DeLoss Dodds stated that their "schedule was full" for any future regular season games. And I can attest to the fact that Texas did not want to play A&M in some previous bowl games (source - media friend in press box in Austin overhearing conversation between two athletic staffers).
For transparency, I am an A&M graduate and my son just graduated from BU. I have never understood the animosity between the 2 fan bases...I have always pulled for BU when not playing A&M, and attend multiple BU games each year.
Merry Christmas Gig 'em & Sic 'em
1- Regular season scheduling is completely voluntary and neither side seems interested in football for any of the Texas teams. Baylor has left it up to each coach to decide and baseball along with men's hoops have scheduled since the departure.
2- Whether the Horns want to bowl against A&M is really immaterial given the contracts. If the Texas Bowl can luck into getting UT they'll do it and UT doesn't have much room to protest outside of declining the invite. Given how much pride is on the line for both I don't think either wants it leaked that they dodged an invite. The only choice in the Texas Bowl matchups resides with the bowl picking a Big 12 team and the SEC choosing which SEC team goes.
