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Baylor Basketball

Gameday Thread: #1 Baylor (27-2) vs #1 Gonzaga (31-0)

April 4, 2021
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#1 Seed Baylor (27-2) takes on #1 Seed Gonzaga (31-0) in the National Championship Game Monday April 5th at 8:20 pm CST in Indianapolis.  The game will be televised on CBS.

KenPom Prediction:  Gonzaga 85 Baylor 81

Torvik Prediction:  Gonzaga 85 Baylor 80

Evan Miyakawa Prediction:  Gonzaga 92 Baylor 87

KenPom Prediction (Dec 2020):  Gonzaga 79 Baylor 78


Coaches

Gonzaga:  Mark Few (58) 628-124; 21 NCAAs; 10 Sweet 16s; 4 Elite 8s; 2 Final 4s

Baylor:  Scott Drew (50); 390-224 overall (370-213 at Baylor); 9 NCAAs; 5 Sweet 16s; 3 Elite 8s; FF

Head to Head:  Few 3-0


Gonzaga Starters

Name Pos Class Ht Wt PPG RPG APG FG% 3pt% FT%
Andrew Nembhard PG JR 6-5 195 9.2 2.3 4.4 48 33 78
Jalen Suggs SG FR 6-4 205 14.1 5.5 4.6 50 33 77
Joel Ayayi SF JR 6-5 180 12.2 7.0 2.8 58 39 79
Corey Kispert PF SR 6-7 220 18.8 5.0 1.8 53 45 88
Drew Timme C SO 6-10 235 19.2 7.1 2.3 65 29 69

Gonzaga Bench

Name Pos Class Ht Wt PPG RPG APG FG% 3pt% FT%
Anton Watson F SO 6-8 225 7.0 3.4 1.2 64 15 64
Aaron Cook G SR 6-1 180 4.4 1.6 1.7 50 35 66

Baylor Starters

Name Pos Class Ht Wt PPG RPG APG FG% 3pt% FT%
Davion Mitchell PG JR 6-2 205 14.0 2.6 5.5 52 45 63
Jared Butler  SG JR 6-3 195 16.6 3.3 4.7 47 42 77
MaCio Teague SF SR 6-4 195 15.8 4.0 1.7 48 39 84
Mark Vital PF SR 6-5 250 5.6 6.5 1.3 49 0 50
Flo Thamba C JR 6-10 245 3.7 3.9 0.2 59 0 61

Baylor Bench

Name Pos Class Ht Wt PPG RPG APG FG% 3pt% FT%
Adam Flagler G SO 6-3 180 9.0 2.3 1.4 45 42 86
Matt Mayer F JR 6-9 225 8.3 3.8 1.0 49 40 59
Jon Tchamwa F SO 6-8 245 6.4 5.1 0.4 57 0 77
Discussion from...

Gameday Thread: #1 Baylor (27-2) vs #1 Gonzaga (31-0)

25,979 Views | 508 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by Assassin
Yeek
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Ready for anything
MrGolfguy
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Just win Bears!
BUbackerinET
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We contain Timme (he will get his, just contain him), rebound, make the 3s and foul shots, and play defense like we did against Houston, I like our chances.
vanillabryce
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If Timme tries to hedge hard against our guards in the PNR game like he did v UCLA he's going to have a hard time staying on the court. We got Cockburn in foul trouble and McCormack too in one game.

Kispert is a tough matchup for most bigs. Outside of Flo I don't foresee any of our bigs having a hard time guarding him on the perimeter.

Timme was setting a lot of ball screens and led to mismatches in the post. How we can slow that down will be a factor.

Our four guards are something they've never seen before in their basketball lives. Probably the best four guards I can remember in the last 20 years.

One more win... Baylor 84 Gonzaga 80

william
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lwtt.

- kkm

gb!
Mitch Henessey
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All these fans and pundits predicting Gonzaga scores in the 90s are either a) predicting a 2OT game, or b) out of their damn minds.
Oldbear83
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Mitch Henessey said:

All these fans and pundits predicting Gonzaga scores in the 90s are either a) predicting a 2OT game, or b) out of their damn minds.
I'd say 90+% of Zag fans have never watched a Baylor game, let alone Saturday's game against UH.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Baylor3216
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Mitch Henessey said:

All these fans and pundits predicting Gonzaga scores in the 90s are either a) predicting a 2OT game, or b) out of their damn minds.


It's like when Tom Brady laughed at Michael Strauss saying they'd hold NE to 20

A come uppance is coming in 24 hours
KatyBear88
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Keys to the win:
  • Baylor plays more physical and believe GU struggles against these types of teams
  • Defense, we will put more consistent pressure on them, especially the guards
  • Bench, essentially we are playing 8 on 5, expect this to come in to play in second half

Intangible, can GU emotionally recover from OT win, jury out. BU playing better each game and more battle tested. BU to win in a great game but will not come down to the last possession.
Sic’em Bears!
boognish_bear
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Crash the stache!

BU 84
Zags 79
Johnny Bear
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Keeping Mitchell and Vital out of foul trouble, especially early in the game, is huge.
BUbackerinET
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They have not seen the quickness of our guards this year, be great to get some charging fouls on Timme the way he goes through people, we should be able to do that.
ImABearToo
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Heavyweight prize fight most of the first half, Bears get a few big jabs in and then a game changing right hook midway through second half. Go on a nice 15-0 run and we can celebrate the win with 2-4 minutes left on the clock. A Natty on the Brazos!
IowaBear
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A lot of people here are severely underestimating the athleticism of the Gonzaga guards.... I mean Suggs was a D1 football recruit. With that said guard play is a wash. Our bigs have got to be physical with Timme every time down the court. And our bench players need big scoring games. Looking at you Mayer/Flagler/JTT. It's going to be a war. The bears are up to the challenge. Bears win 75-71
boognish_bear
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IowaBear said:

A lot of people here are severely underestimating the athleticism of the Gonzaga guards.... I mean Suggs was a D1 football recruit. With that said guard play is a wash. Our bigs have got to be physical with Timme every time down the court. And our bench players need big scoring games. Looking at you Mayer/Flagler/JTT. It's going to be a war. The bears are up to the challenge. Bears win 75-71
Definitely agree with putting some muscle on Timme...just hoping we can spread out the fouls among Flo, JTT, and Vital to keep them all in the game.
Mitch Henessey
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IowaBear said:

A lot of people here are severely underestimating the athleticism of the Gonzaga guards.... I mean Suggs was a D1 football recruit. With that said guard play is a wash. Our bigs have got to be physical with Timme every time down the court. And our bench players need big scoring games. Looking at you Mayer/Flagler/JTT. It's going to be a war. The bears are up to the challenge. Bears win 75-71
If guard play is a wash, we lose by 10-15 points. Maybe Mitchell and Suggs cancel each other out, and one of the other guys cancels out Nembhard, but we absolutely need to be +20 out of the other two guards to have a shot tonight.
IowaBear
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I was looking at it as Kispert/Timme vs Vital/Flo/JTT/Mayer in regarding to scoring.
bear2be2
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Mitch Henessey said:

All these fans and pundits predicting Gonzaga scores in the 90s are either a) predicting a 2OT game, or b) out of their damn minds.

It's going to be a higher scoring game than we're accustomed to because of pace, but I don't see it getting to the 90s.

I think this game will look a lot like our game at West Virginia.
boognish_bear
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FWIW..... winning margin against common opponents we have played this year. I know there is no transitive property in sports....but I was curious to see how it compared.

ZAGS:
OU 16
KU 12
AUB 23
WVU 5

BU:
OU 15
KU 8
AUB 12
KU Loss (first week back after Covid)
WVU 5
Oldbear83
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IowaBear said:

A lot of people here are severely underestimating the athleticism of the Gonzaga guards.... I mean Suggs was a D1 football recruit. With that said guard play is a wash. Our bigs have got to be physical with Timme every time down the court. And our bench players need big scoring games. Looking at you Mayer/Flagler/JTT. It's going to be a war. The bears are up to the challenge. Bears win 75-71
I agree that Gonzaga is very athletic. Consider how their game plan often amounts to playing fast and daring opponents to keep up. BYU lost to Gonzaga in part because while they started strong, they simply could not sustain the pace all game and ran out of energy.

I also think that a lot of fans have no idea how good Baylor's defense is. Baylor beat Houston, so suddenly the claim is that UH just got lucky to get to the Final Four, just ignore that #5 NET ranking, and Baylor beat a nobody. The fact is that Baylor faced a string of serious competition in Wisconsin, Villanova, Arkansas and now Houston, and despite having to use different schemes and weapons they got past all of them comfortably. And in all of their NCAA games, the Bears have shown a very good defense. Consider these numbers:

Hartford: 65.4 average, allowed 55 (-11.4)
Wisconsin: 69.9 average, allowed 63 (-6.9)
Villanova: 74.8 average, allowed 51 (-23.8)
Arkansas: 81.4 average, allowed 72 (-9.4)
Houston: 76.1 average, allowed 59 (-17.1)

Baylor defense is allowing 13.5 points less than average per game, 16.8 less than average over the last 3 games


Norfolk: 73.6 average, allowed 55 (-18.6)
Oklahoma: 74.5 average, allowed 71 (-3.5)
Creighton: 76.0 average, allowed 65 (-11.0)
USC: 74.9 average, allowed 66 (-8.9)
UCLA: 73.4 average, allowed 90 (+16.6)

Gonzaga defense is allowing 5.1 points less than average per game, 1.1 less than average over the last 3 games


The Bears' scoring defense is therefore 8.4 to 15.7 points more effective than Gonzaga's defense.

If defense wins Championships, that can make the difference.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
alanmarmstrong
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Gonna come down to the benches...

In their 93 points scored OT win vs UCLA, their bench had 4 points...only played 7 guys...we know what we have in our bench.

I'm thinking we take care of the ball well like we have all tournament, grind out efficient offensive possessions, trust our on ball defense and maybe pressure a little more 3/4 court off of made FTs and maybe even some made baskets to slow them down some...get the game at our pace

Our bench outscores Timme, and our guards do their thing...45ish combined from Butler, Mitchell, and Teague...and we win 82-76
bear2be2
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alanmarmstrong said:

Gonna come down to the benches...

In their 93 points scored OT win vs UCLA, their bench had 4 points...only played 7 guys...we know what we have in our bench.

I'm thinking we take care of the ball well like we have all tournament, grind out efficient offensive possessions, trust our on ball defense and maybe pressure a little more 3/4 court off of made FTs and maybe even some made baskets to slow them down some...get the game at our pace

Our bench outscores Timme, and our guards do their thing...45ish combined from Butler, Mitchell, and Teague...and we win 82-76

I think our bench production will be important, but Gonzaga's will be less so IMO. They never get a lot of production from their bench and their starters are conditioned to play heavy minutes. Anything they get from their bench is gravy and has been all year.
Michibear
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PaperBear89
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It will come down to how the refs deal with Timme. If they continue to let him get away with his Bill Lambeer Jr. crap, it's gonna be a long night for us.
IowaBear
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They're not just going to magically start calling fouls on him, especially in the title game. We just have to attack him all night long and hope they have the cojones to call even 1/5th of the fouls he will commit
EatMoreSalmon
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May the best bears win!
Oldbear83
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IowaBear said:

They're not just going to magically start calling fouls on him, especially in the title game. We just have to attack him all night long and hope they have the cojones to call even 1/5th of the fouls he will commit
I found a list of the officials who work the Final Four games:

  • Pat Adams, Mobile, Alabama
  • Jeff Anderson, West Henrietta, New York
  • Bo Boroski, Indianapolis, Indiana
  • James Breeding, Louisville, Kentucky
  • Ron Groover, Newnan, Georgia
  • Keith Kimble, Arlington, Texas
  • Randy McCall, Highlands Ranch, Colorado
  • Gerry Pollard, Wentzville, Missouri
  • Chris Rastatter, Tucson, Arizona
  • Larry Scirotto, Dallas, Texas
  • Doug Sirmons, Virginia Beach, Virginia


Anderson, Breeding and Groover worked the Gonzaga-UCLA game and are unlikely to work the Championship game if the tradition holds.

Rastatter, Adams and Sirmons worked the Baylor-Houston game and also are unlikely to work the Championship game if the tradition holds.

Pollard and Scirotto are working their first Final Four games, and so are likely slated as alternates.

That leaves the following officials probable to work tonight's game:


  • Bo Boroski, Indianapolis, Indiana

https://www.wishtv.com/news/indianapolis-resident-gets-final-four-officiating-call/


  • Keith Kimble, Arlington, Texas

https://www.facebook.com/fortworthref/



  • Randy McCall, Highlands Ranch, Colorado

https://www.denverpost.com/2014/09/19/basketball-randy-mccall-receives-naismith-award-for-college-basketball-officiating/


That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
IowaBear
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Interesting find, I'll have to read up on them. Not real familiar with any of the 3
Oldbear83
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IowaBear said:

Interesting find, I'll have to read up on them. Not real familiar with any of the 3
I had trouble finding much, except that Big Ten fans don't seem to like Boroski much.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
gobears20
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Staff
gobears20
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Staff
Self Made Bear
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We have a family member who is a high school ref and knows Kimble. Says he's a great ref.
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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Lol

boognish_bear
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