Baylor Basketball
Big 12 Tournament preview and game predictions
It’s March. It has been for eight days now, but it’s mostly felt like an extended February. Today is when it really starts to feel like March, at least for fans of the Big 12.
One false step in Kansas City, your team’s sent home. For some teams, that means their season is over completely with no chance to be invited to the Big Dance. So while some teams are fighting for their seeding in next week’s NCAA Tournament, others are playing to keep playing.
Those teams playing for their very lives start the tournament today.
#8 TCU vs. #9 Oklahoma — 6:00 p.m. (ESPNU)
Oklahoma split its series with TCU after winning the season finale but that came on the Crimson and Cream’s own court. Lon Kruger’s a heck of a coach, one that almost upended Kansas a couple weeks ago, but Jamie Dixon is a fantastic manager as well and should use that loss to OU as a springboard to take this game. He’s built this program from nothing in less than a year in Fort Worth and should have no problem taking this game. Keep an eye on Kenrich Williams, he’s been deadly from three lately.
#7 Texas Tech vs. #10 Texas — 8:00 p.m. (ESPNU)
This is Texas’ worst season since 1984. A win is as likely as a snowball’s chance in Lubbock. There’s not much to it. The Longhorns need more than just Jarrett Allen to show up on the court to defend the Red Raiders’ push for their punched ticket.
There’s not much difference between a four and five seed, but I’ll take the latter here. The Cowboys barely lost to ISU in the final week and lost the other meeting but Jawun Evans is a player fully ready to take control of a game. It’s his first Big 12 tournament, but if it comes down to trading shots at the perimeter, it’s advantage OSU.
#1 Kansas vs. #8 TCU — 1:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
A win here would surely punch the Frogs’ tickets, it’s only fair for taking down the nation’s top team this late in the season. But the Jayhawks are the top team for a reason. This is arguably the best backcourt Bill Self has ever coached and more importantly, it’s also a team that fights to the end. There have been a lot of scares including Baylor and West Virginia but KU keeps coming out on top. Frank Mason is the truth.
#2 West Virginia vs. #7 Texas Tech — 6:00 p.m. (ESPNU)
The Red Raiders have a battle ahead of themselves. But there’s an air of 2014 Baylor to them, giving some hope that a seven-seed can shake up the bracket. Tech is the only team aside from KU to give the Mountaineers a battle each game this season. Few teams have the experience to combat Bob Huggins’ heavy press, Tech is one of those teams and has consistently held a shooting advantage. Here’s pulling for the upset to boggle bracketologists' minds.
#3 Baylor vs. #6 Kansas State — 8:00 p.m. (ESPNU)
I’ll toss this up to Manu Lecomte being on the court or not. If he is, Baylor takes this game by a couple points. If he’s not in, counterbalancing KSU’s physical play becomes that much harder. But it looks likely he’ll be in. Baylor exacts revenge on the ‘Cats despite it being what’s essentially a road game for the Bears.
Stillwater proved to be a challenge for the Jayhawks, but it was yet another classic example of Self’s coaching adjustments coming through in the end. It’s Rock Chalk Jayhawk here.
#3 Baylor vs. #7 Texas Tech — 8:00 p.m. (ESPN2)
Baylor’s loss to the Red Raiders in February can be chalked up to an amount of fouls and that even Liberace would call extravagant. Baylor hasn’t fully taken the foot off the gas there and it depends on which refs are on the court, but the Bears have at least found their rhythm around the glass again wither almost 40 rebounds per game. Win there, Baylor has the game too.
I should note that a #1 vs. #3 seed hasn’t happened since 2007 and also happens to be the Big 12 Championship’s only overtime game. But with the 2, 3, and 4 seeds virtually tied, this might as well be the #1 vs. #2 game, the most popular permutation. Baylor has to do more than just dominate the glass to get the auto-bid too. It will be a matter of controlling Josh Jackson or Frank Mason for the whole game, not just half the time like the last bout. It’s not even about guarding the perimeter. KU has seven games shooting under 30 percent from range and has won all seven. Blocking the paint is what cuts deepest. But this is still Kansas’ world in a close one.
POST-BIG 12 TITLE NCAA TOURNAMENT OUTLOOK
Kansas (No. 1 seed)
Kansas State
Oklahoma
One false step in Kansas City, your team’s sent home. For some teams, that means their season is over completely with no chance to be invited to the Big Dance. So while some teams are fighting for their seeding in next week’s NCAA Tournament, others are playing to keep playing.
Those teams playing for their very lives start the tournament today.
OPENING ROUND
Oklahoma split its series with TCU after winning the season finale but that came on the Crimson and Cream’s own court. Lon Kruger’s a heck of a coach, one that almost upended Kansas a couple weeks ago, but Jamie Dixon is a fantastic manager as well and should use that loss to OU as a springboard to take this game. He’s built this program from nothing in less than a year in Fort Worth and should have no problem taking this game. Keep an eye on Kenrich Williams, he’s been deadly from three lately.
#7 Texas Tech vs. #10 Texas — 8:00 p.m. (ESPNU)
This is Texas’ worst season since 1984. A win is as likely as a snowball’s chance in Lubbock. There’s not much to it. The Longhorns need more than just Jarrett Allen to show up on the court to defend the Red Raiders’ push for their punched ticket.
QUARTERFINALS
#4 Iowa State vs. #5 Oklahoma State — 11:30 a.m. (ESPN2)There’s not much difference between a four and five seed, but I’ll take the latter here. The Cowboys barely lost to ISU in the final week and lost the other meeting but Jawun Evans is a player fully ready to take control of a game. It’s his first Big 12 tournament, but if it comes down to trading shots at the perimeter, it’s advantage OSU.
#1 Kansas vs. #8 TCU — 1:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
A win here would surely punch the Frogs’ tickets, it’s only fair for taking down the nation’s top team this late in the season. But the Jayhawks are the top team for a reason. This is arguably the best backcourt Bill Self has ever coached and more importantly, it’s also a team that fights to the end. There have been a lot of scares including Baylor and West Virginia but KU keeps coming out on top. Frank Mason is the truth.
#2 West Virginia vs. #7 Texas Tech — 6:00 p.m. (ESPNU)
The Red Raiders have a battle ahead of themselves. But there’s an air of 2014 Baylor to them, giving some hope that a seven-seed can shake up the bracket. Tech is the only team aside from KU to give the Mountaineers a battle each game this season. Few teams have the experience to combat Bob Huggins’ heavy press, Tech is one of those teams and has consistently held a shooting advantage. Here’s pulling for the upset to boggle bracketologists' minds.
#3 Baylor vs. #6 Kansas State — 8:00 p.m. (ESPNU)
I’ll toss this up to Manu Lecomte being on the court or not. If he is, Baylor takes this game by a couple points. If he’s not in, counterbalancing KSU’s physical play becomes that much harder. But it looks likely he’ll be in. Baylor exacts revenge on the ‘Cats despite it being what’s essentially a road game for the Bears.
SEMIFINALS
#1 Kansas vs. #5 Oklahoma State — 6:00 p.m. (ESPN2)Stillwater proved to be a challenge for the Jayhawks, but it was yet another classic example of Self’s coaching adjustments coming through in the end. It’s Rock Chalk Jayhawk here.
#3 Baylor vs. #7 Texas Tech — 8:00 p.m. (ESPN2)
Baylor’s loss to the Red Raiders in February can be chalked up to an amount of fouls and that even Liberace would call extravagant. Baylor hasn’t fully taken the foot off the gas there and it depends on which refs are on the court, but the Bears have at least found their rhythm around the glass again wither almost 40 rebounds per game. Win there, Baylor has the game too.
CHAMPIONSHIP
#1 Kansas vs. #3 BaylorI should note that a #1 vs. #3 seed hasn’t happened since 2007 and also happens to be the Big 12 Championship’s only overtime game. But with the 2, 3, and 4 seeds virtually tied, this might as well be the #1 vs. #2 game, the most popular permutation. Baylor has to do more than just dominate the glass to get the auto-bid too. It will be a matter of controlling Josh Jackson or Frank Mason for the whole game, not just half the time like the last bout. It’s not even about guarding the perimeter. KU has seven games shooting under 30 percent from range and has won all seven. Blocking the paint is what cuts deepest. But this is still Kansas’ world in a close one.
POST-BIG 12 TITLE NCAA TOURNAMENT OUTLOOK
Locks
Kansas (No. 1 seed)
Baylor (No. 2 seed)
West Virginia (No. 4 seed)
Iowa State (No. 7 seed)
Oklahoma State (No. 8 seed)
BUBBLE
Kansas State
Texas Tech*
TCU
*If Tech indeed beats West Virginia, the Red Raiders might get invited. But it still might be too little too late. TeamRankings.com currently has Tech with a one percent chance at the tournament- the same for TCU. Kansas State is the most likely of this field at 11 percent but a quarterfinal loss almost certainly knocks the Wildcats out of competition.
NEEDED TO BEAT KANSAS TO PUNCH A TICKET
Oklahoma
Texas
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