An interesting take from a poster on the Cowboys subreddit:
How to un-furk the Cowboys
Today I saw some rumors that the Patriots have been fielding calls for Stephon Gilmore. That got me thinking, if the Cowboys organization was well run and wanted to un-furk themselves in just one offseason, could they do it? I think the answer is yes, and here i'll lay out a plausible scenario to do just that.
Let's start by examining our needs. I'll place them into tiers based on the urgency of the need.
Tier one - IDL, CB, S, EDGE, LB or the entire defense if you prefer it that way
Tier two- C, OT, OG, WR (i'll explain)
Tier three- QB, RB
So to understand how a team could fill all of those needs in just one offseason, we need to understand the cap situation, and the contracts that need to be inked. As of right now, the Cowboys have approximately (~) $24 million in 2020 cap space. No one is sure what will happen to the cap in 2021, but we know that the cap is floored at $175m and the best case scenario is likely that the cap stays flat at ~$200m. So, we'll set up a range within which we know the cap will more than likely fall. If the cap falls to the floor, The Cowboys will be $2 million in the red against the 2021 cap. If the cap doesn't fall, The Cowboys will be ~$23m under the cap. Now, our offseason priorities should be (obviously) to sign Dak. I would also propose a contract extension for Aldon Smith (who has played at an admirable level given his history) to reduce the immediate need for an edge defender and allow us to sure up other spots in the 2021 draft (which is weak at the position)
So how do we make enough space to make that happen? Let's start with cuts. In a lost season, The Cowboys can stand to cut some dead weight, and free up more money for cap rollover.
CUT- Tyrone Crawford- the dude doesn't even play. Self explanatory. $8m in cap savings
CUT- Dontari Poe- don't need to explain this one either. $1.1m in cap savings
CUT- Daryl Worley- Worley has seen the field for less than 10% of snaps in the last few games. the return of awuzie makes this a no brainer. $1m in cap savings
CUT- Chris Jones- worst punter in the league for years, still has a huge contract. get this bum out of here. $2m in cap savings
So by making 4 cuts we have cleared $18m in cap space and trimmed some of the fat from our roster. It's impossible to know the exact details of their contracts, so assuming that as much as half of the cap figures have been paid out, you can still save $9m and lose no one valuable to the team. Now let's strap in for trades.
TRADE- Michael Gallup + 2021 3rd for Stephon Gilmore
What do the Patriots need the most? Receivers. Where are we the strongest? You guessed it. I love Michael Gallup as much as the next guy, but this season it's been obvious that he's the 3rd receiver in this offense. We've also seen Cedrick Wilson emerge as a threat. As great as he's been for us, Michael Gallup seems expendable at this point. He would immediately become the WR1 on the Pats and makes a tantalizing trade target with time still left on his rookie deal. With Albert Breer reporting that the Patriots would look for a 2nd or 3rd round pick for Gilmore (who needs a new contract), this is not only a fair trade, but one that could potentially be an overpay by the Cowboys. Some negotiating could be done to reduce the price.
TRADE- 2021 2nd for Quinnen Williams
An ascending first round DT talent, on a rookie deal, for a second round pick, currently playing under Gase who's famous for having players blow up as soon as they're out from under him? no brainer. Do it.
TRADE- Everson Griffen + 2021 7th for 2021 6th
The Buffalo Bills defense has regressed handsomely this season. They're pressuring the quarterback on a measley 4.8% of dropbacks, which is good for second worst in the league. For a team running away with their division and looking to make a deep playoff run, this trade makes sense. The Cowboys turn their 7th into a 6th and save $6.5m against the cap by doing so.
So in total with all of the moves, we've cleared a maximum (based on contract structures) of $24.5m in additional cap or a minimum of $15.5m. We've acquired Stephon Gilmore, who would bring a $15m cap hit this season, and a $15m cap hit next season. Either way, we've cleared cap space, acquiring Stephon Gilmore and Quinnen Williams while losing a bunch of spares on defense, and our beloved Michael Gallup. Net Positive.
So realistically we can roll over somewhere between $20m and $40m in cap, which is a large range, but again, I don't know the exact structures of the contracts involved. So in 2021 we're operating in a range that goes from ~$60m in cap and ~$30m in cap, based on how much the cap decreases and how much money we've managed to cut/trade. Now we have contracts to take care of. We need to sign Dak and Aldon and look to extend Gilmore. If Dak is signed, and not tagged, that will reduce his cap hit significantly in 2021. Singing Dak must be the top priority. After signing Dak, The Cowboys could offer Aldon a modest 2 or 3 year deal as a stop gap solution until the edge of the future can be drafted. Next, extend Gilmore, making his remaining year into a 4 year deal. Keep the $15m cap hit for the next year and spread the money down the road anticipating a cap explosion following COVID and the new TV deals.
Next up, the draft. By making some savvy moves, we've fixed our cornerback situation and drastically improved our DT situation. That makes our primary need LB in my mind. Seeing as we suck, we'll likely end up with a top 10 pick. The only guy worth drafting in the top 10 at our positions of need is Micah Parsons (in the more likely scenario that he's off the board, a trade down would be in order). Having Micah Parsons on this team is a total wet dream of mine. Imagine-
Aldon-Quinnen Williams-(anyone but Dontari Poe)-Tank
LVE- Jaylon Smith - Micah Parsons
-having 2 athletic freaks for linebackers that can tear from sideline to sideline and relegating Jaylon to the middle where he can't be beat to the edges on every play, while having an actual DT on the inside who doesn't get pushed 5 yards downfield every play and allows our LBs to fill their gaps and our EDGEs to pressure the quarterback without him being able to simply step up and avoid them. Meanwhile, you have Gilmore-Diggs-Brown as your corner group. Draft a safety or sign one in FA and you've put together a defense with top 10 potential. In one offseason. Next season we get Tyron, Collins, and Dak back, which should again take our offense into top 10 range, even without Gallup.
Jerry, if you're reading this, I know we like "our guys" but at a certain point (now) it's probably time to bring in some other guys who can help your team.
Thanks for coming to my TED Talk.