ScrappyPaws said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

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I say this in every thread where expectations are talked about, but I don't see what it is about six wins that gets so many people fired up. Simply making it to a participation trophy bowl? Six wins should be the bare bare minimum for a program like ours considering what we have achieved and where we have been in the last 10 years

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I see it (bowl eligibility) as a minimum performance level considering where we've been. It would show we've potentially turned a corner. It also contributes some tangible benefits to reinforcing that momentum with bowl eligible teams allowed an additional 4-5 weeks of organized team practices and the payout that comes with bowl participation, win or lose. Ask any college coach if an extra month of practice and an extra $6 or 8 million (Cheez-It Bowl is 6/team, Alamo Bowl is 8/team) is beneficial in maintaining and building on momentum.

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Yeah that's the thing, its significance is mostly symbolic at this point besides the extra practices which are obviously a tangible benefit. Something like 64% of FBS teams went to bowl games as of a few years ago. I just don't think it's the mark of a successful program. Only really bad teams worry about getting bowl eligible. It was what everyone was talking about during my freshman year circa 2010 when we hadn't been to a bowl in years and years. But to go from a conference championship and sugar bowl to this in a span of 3 years? Not good

vanillabryce said:

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Six wins is the expectation for Aranda to keep his job.

Anything less is termination.

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In most situations. We seem to pride ourselves on being "the exception", so we'll see,

Daveisabovereproach said:

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If Jalon Daniels is healthy, Kansas will likely be favored - perhaps significantly. No way I could pencil that in as a win

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Yeah, no kidding. My understanding is KU has a veteran team this year.

sadly, baylor's not on this year's schedule for k-state. i hate losing round robin.

ku will be interesting to watch this year, more so next when they lose all of les miles's recruits.

Karab said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

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If Jalon Daniels is healthy, Kansas will likely be favored - perhaps significantly. No way I could pencil that in as a win

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Yeah, no kidding. My understanding is KU has a veteran team this year.

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....and one heck of a coach.

BBWCBear said:

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Aberzombie1892 said:

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bear2be2 said:

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Aberzombie1892 said:

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It's difficult to do a game by game analysis given how much movement is still happening in the portal - even today. That being said,Utah, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Kansas should be among the more difficult games based on what they have coming back.

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With Texas and Oklahoma out of the league, no one remaining is exceptionally talented. We just saw this in the draft.

There will be wild fluctuations in this league every year. I have my doubts that we'll be a team that makes a big jump in win-loss record, but it's not impossible.

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The bolded is certainly true, but teams can build up to a cycle of being pretty good and it looks like those teams plus possibly Kansas State may be in that cycle right now. None of the other opponents on the 24 Baylor schedule appear to be particularly strong at this moment in time.

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Going forward, I would feel better and more confident with both BU AND the Big12 if we could have had a strong, successful year last year.along with a good bowl game. As it is, it feels like both are just a G5 level and not a good one.

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The Big 12 does feel bit like a stronger version of the AAC when it had Houston/UCF/Cincinnati, and it's unclear what could be done about that. It seems like every time the Big 12 has good news, some more bad news comes out - OU/UT leaving without paying the full amount owed, legacy 8 teams taking a pay cut for 2 seasons, the Big 12 losing Fickell/Fisch as coaches before they even arrive, Big 12 agreeing to a reduced share of the expanded CFP money, legacy Big 12 recruiting/draft results, etc.

If Patterson (gag) is given a free hand and if he's truly on board, the defense will definitely improve. It could not get any worse.

If the new OC has half the offensive brain of Briles (which he likely does not) the offense will improve. It could not get any worse.

I think Baylor has a chance to go to a bowl next season, but then again, I thought we'd be better each year after I was a freshman in 1967, so what do I know?

bear2be2 said:

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Aberzombie1892 said:

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It's difficult to do a game by game analysis given how much movement is still happening in the portal - even today. That being said,Utah, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Kansas should be among the more difficult games based on what they have coming back.

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With Texas and Oklahoma out of the league, no one remaining is exceptionally talented. We just saw this in the draft.

There will be wild fluctuations in this league every year. I have my doubts that we'll be a team that makes a big jump in win-loss record, but it's not impossible.

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This is where I am. I'm not optimistic, but who knows with so many new coaches and new players.

Agree the B12 will have lots of fluctuations. That's been true for everyone not named OU in any event (except for KU, the once-perpetual doormat). Look at who has finished 2nd or 3rd or 4th in the league the last 15 years, versus landing at the bottom. It's going to be wild year to year, even moreso because of the new state of college athletics.

For me personally, this apple cart turnover in football and basketball rosters every year is way less fun than when you had some continuity in rosters and got to watch actual development.

Maybe Dave is just the FACE of the program now (like Sleepy Joe) but Patterson and others are really calling the shots behind the scenes....

Patterson should've just been hired as the new defensive coordinator. The dude we have now should've been moved back to safety coach. I don't understand the point of hiring a defensive coordinator to learn on the job while the former defensive coordinator head coach is also learning how to be a head coach on the job.

Daveisabovereproach said:

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Patterson should've just been hired as the new defensive coordinator. The dude we have now should've been moved back to safety coach. I don't understand the point of hiring a defensive coordinator to learn on the job while the former defensive coordinator head coach is also learning how to be a head coach on the job.

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I think that was pure optics. Looked too embarrassing to be on brand new OC #3 and DC #3 at the same time.

This is, what, year 5?

Yeah constantly playing musical chairs with your coordinators is a bad look.

IBleedGreenandGold said:

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Yeah constantly playing musical chairs with your coordinators is a bad look.

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Letting Grimes run off Bohanon and Drones so he could try to create Zach Wilson 2.0 with shapen was a bad look. He had to go. I was never sold on Powledge. Seemed like reach.

BUATX2000 said:

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IBleedGreenandGold said:

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Yeah constantly playing musical chairs with your coordinators is a bad look.

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Letting Grimes run off Bohanon and Drones so he could try to create Zach Wilson 2.0 with shapen was a bad look. He had to go. I was never sold on Powledge. Seemed like reach.

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Powledge was probably not Aranda's first choice. No competent and successful defensive coordinator wanted to hitch themself to Aranda's wagon while having to run Aranda's scheme. If he was his first choice, that alone should have been a fireable offense. Dude wasn't really anything but a safety coach at Oregon

Baylor

The Bears are back to business: After a shocking 3-9 campaign, the worst in six years at Baylor, Dave Aranda has done the impossible: come back from the dead. Most expected Aranda gone after the miserable season, but the athletic department not only doubled down but provided him with further resources. Aranda poached sought-after assistants offensive coordinator Jake Spavital (Cal) and running backs coach Khenon Hall (SMU). He landed several top transfers, including MAC MVP DeQuan Finn and two of the top offensive line prospects in the portal, Kurt Danneker (Ohio) and Omar Aigbedion (Montana State). Now, Baylor expects to get back to a bowl game. Will it happen? We'll see.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-12-spring-overreactions-arizona-boasts-leagues-top-player-kansas-state-has-nations-best-rushing-attack/

Daveisabovereproach said:

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Patterson should've just been hired as the new defensive coordinator. The dude we have now should've been moved back to safety coach. I don't understand the point of hiring a defensive coordinator to learn on the job while the former defensive coordinator head coach is also learning how to be a head coach on the job.

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Patterson isn't allowed to directly coach players. It has something to do with his contract with TCU

BigGameBaylorBear said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

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Patterson should've just been hired as the new defensive coordinator. The dude we have now should've been moved back to safety coach. I don't understand the point of hiring a defensive coordinator to learn on the job while the former defensive coordinator head coach is also learning how to be a head coach on the job.

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Patterson isn't allowed to directly coach players. It has something to do with his contract with TCU

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Weird but would make sense as to why he hasn't landed another big-time gig.

BigGameBaylorBear said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

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Patterson should've just been hired as the new defensive coordinator. The dude we have now should've been moved back to safety coach. I don't understand the point of hiring a defensive coordinator to learn on the job while the former defensive coordinator head coach is also learning how to be a head coach on the job.

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Patterson isn't allowed to directly coach players. It has something to do with his contract with TCU

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Didn't TCU fire him despite everything he did for TCU? I don't think he has any obligations to TCU still. I suspect he likes the type of role he has here now and had at Texas. Kind of a retired coach who still gets to semi coach at the big time level. I doubt he actually wants to be a DC again post legendary HCing tenure at TCU.

BluesBear said:

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Maybe Dave is just the FACE of the program now (like Sleepy Joe) but Patterson and others are really calling the shots behind the scenes....

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That's honestly all we can hope for at this point. CDA has low coaching IQ, just hard to imagine a more clueless head coach on the sidelines.

I like the staff brought in for sure. But if they're good enough to turn this program around then they're good enough to recognize that CDA isn't, and they're good enough to get bought by another program. Risk is high when staff see that the head coach isn't very good. Just hope Mack keeps an eye on these assistants during the season and does his best to keep the ones that need to stay. Because if BU somehow does well other programs will be on the hunt.

PartyBear said:

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BigGameBaylorBear said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

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Patterson should've just been hired as the new defensive coordinator. The dude we have now should've been moved back to safety coach. I don't understand the point of hiring a defensive coordinator to learn on the job while the former defensive coordinator head coach is also learning how to be a head coach on the job.

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Patterson isn't allowed to directly coach players. It has something to do with his contract with TCU

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Didn't TCU fire him despite everything he did for TCU? I don't think he has any obligations to TCU still. I suspect he likes the type of role he has here now and had at Texas. Kind of a retired coach who still gets to semi coach at the big time level. I doubt he actually wants to be a DC again post legendary HCing tenure at TCU.

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I don't know the specifics of his contract but he is still getting paid by TCU, kinda like how Jimbo is still being paid by Aggie. Gary forfeits that TCU money if he picks up a job directly coaching kids.

But let's say Dave gets fired mid season and Gary got offered interim HC. I bet he takes it bc he's going to be making HC money and wont need the TCU money

Edit: I wouldn't be surprised if GP is coaching kids to some extent at Baylor but keeping it real lowkey

If BU was using NIL to bring in under-utilized (2nd-team or 3rd team) 4-star and 5-star players from top SEC and Big 10 programs I would be optimistic. But bringing in the very best players from G5 programs is a bad look. This will be an interesting experiment but I bet I lose interest by the 5th loss of our season, which might be our 6th or 7th game into the season.

Patterson isn't taking a coordinator job. So this gives cover to have him at as analyst while hopefully holding Aranda and the other dudes hand. Seems to be much more involved than a typical analyst, which is a very good thing. He needs to be given free rein.

They are giving every chance to mold Dave to be a head coach. He's already failed but getting a mulligan yet again. Never seen an experiment like this but they are dead set on Aranda being successful.

If he can't string together 6 wins in this new league it would be time. Setting the expectation at 6 is already an embarrassment.

And then comes the Guy Morris level of low.

BigGameBaylorBear said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

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Patterson should've just been hired as the new defensive coordinator. The dude we have now should've been moved back to safety coach. I don't understand the point of hiring a defensive coordinator to learn on the job while the former defensive coordinator head coach is also learning how to be a head coach on the job.

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Patterson isn't allowed to directly coach players. It has something to do with his contract with TCU

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fake news. He got a nice buyout and he is spending more time with family.

Quinton said:

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Patterson isn't taking a coordinator job. So this gives cover to have him at as analyst while hopefully holding Aranda and the other dudes hand. Seems to be much more involved than a typical analyst, which is a very good thing. He needs to be given free rein.

They are giving every chance to mold Dave to be a head coach. He's already failed but getting a mulligan yet again. Never seen an experiment like this but they are dead set on Aranda being successful.

If he can't string together 6 wins in this new league it would be time. Setting the expectation at 6 is already an embarrassment.

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Agreed with your last sentence for sure. If a .500 record wasn't the benchmark for bowl eligibility, no one would be talking about it like it's this noteworthy accomplishment. Again, going from a conference championship and sugar bowl victory three years ago to speaking in hushed and excited tones about the mere possibility of playing Boise State in the Wolfe Brand chili bowl or what have you? That's hard to be optimistic about

bear2be2 said:

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Aberzombie1892 said:

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It's difficult to do a game by game analysis given how much movement is still happening in the portal - even today. That being said,Utah, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Kansas should be among the more difficult games based on what they have coming back.

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With Texas and Oklahoma out of the league, no one remaining is exceptionally talented. We just saw this in the draft.

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I agree and would add that having just about any of the TX talent they wanted still didn't help UT do anything from 2010-2022. They underwhelmed for over a decade.

monsterbear61 said:

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But coming off a championship, BU should have started to trend upwards towards a dynasty.

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meth or bath salts?

jikespingleton said:

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monsterbear61 said:

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But coming off a championship, BU should have started to trend upwards towards a dynasty.

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meth or bath salts?

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Both

BUGWBBear said:

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tmcats said:

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Baylor

The Bears are back to business: After a shocking 3-9 campaign, the worst in six years at Baylor, Dave Aranda has done the impossible: come back from the dead. Most expected Aranda gone after the miserable season, but the athletic department not only doubled down but provided him with further resources. Aranda poached sought-after assistants offensive coordinator Jake Spavital (Cal) and running backs coach Khenon Hall (SMU). He landed several top transfers, including MAC MVP DeQuan Finn and two of the top offensive line prospects in the portal, Kurt Danneker (Ohio) and Omar Aigbedion (Montana State). Now, Baylor expects to get back to a bowl game. Will it happen? We'll see.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-12-spring-overreactions-arizona-boasts-leagues-top-player-kansas-state-has-nations-best-rushing-attack/

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This will not age well. Aranda is permanently lost in the weeds.

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to be fair, this is written as the optimistic case for each team. last year wvu was picked 14th preseason and finished 5th. we never know until some games are actually played.

Saying bowl eligibility is out of the question is a clown take. Last year's team could've won the UH, WVU, and Utah games had it flipped the other way. That would've been 6-6. We won't be worse than last year