PawpaBear said:

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Below is an overly optimistic 10-2 with the win and loss columns per game below…

this is dependent on Finn running for his life with an improved OL with 1 additional impact transfer player… 1 Edge transfer impact player… and 1 DL transfer that is a legit run stopper and over 320 lbs.

Win - Tarletan State
Loss - Utah
Win - Air Force
Loss - Colorado
Win - BYU
Win - Iowa State
Win - Texas Tech
Win - Oklahoma State
Win - TCU
Win - West Virginia
Win - Houston
Win - Kansas

Less sunshine pumping - I realistically believe we will go 6-6 this season until I see more.

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Sorry. 11-1. We aren't losing to Colorado. I'm going to that game and we will win a thriller in OT

We just snagged that Edge pass rusher and everyone is forgetting that Patterson is involved. I think he is really gonna make a difference this year.

BluesBear said:

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PawpaBear said:

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Below is an overly optimistic 10-2 with the win and loss columns per game below…

this is dependent on Finn running for his life with an improved OL with 1 additional impact transfer player… 1 Edge transfer impact player… and 1 DL transfer that is a legit run stopper and over 320 lbs.

Win - Tarletan State
Loss - Utah
Win - Air Force
Loss - Colorado
Win - BYU
Win - Iowa State
Win - Texas Tech
Win - Oklahoma State
Win - TCU
Win - West Virginia
Win - Houston
Win - Kansas

Less sunshine pumping - I realistically believe we will go 6-6 this season until I see more.

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Sorry. 11-1. We aren't losing to Colorado. I'm going to that game and we will win a thriller in OT

We just snagged that Edge pass rusher and everyone is forgetting that Patterson is involved. I think he is really gonna make a difference this year.

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I never thought I would agree that Patterson is a bright spot, but he certainly helped Sarkesian. Our defense ought to be flawless in execution by mid season.

It's difficult to do a game by game analysis given how much movement is still happening in the portal - even today. That being said,Utah, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Kansas should be among the more difficult games based on what they have coming back.

monsterbear61 said:

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BluesBear said:

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PawpaBear said:

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Below is an overly optimistic 10-2 with the win and loss columns per game below…

this is dependent on Finn running for his life with an improved OL with 1 additional impact transfer player… 1 Edge transfer impact player… and 1 DL transfer that is a legit run stopper and over 320 lbs.

Win - Tarletan State
Loss - Utah
Win - Air Force
Loss - Colorado
Win - BYU
Win - Iowa State
Win - Texas Tech
Win - Oklahoma State
Win - TCU
Win - West Virginia
Win - Houston
Win - Kansas

Less sunshine pumping - I realistically believe we will go 6-6 this season until I see more.

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Sorry. 11-1. We aren't losing to Colorado. I'm going to that game and we will win a thriller in OT

We just snagged that Edge pass rusher and everyone is forgetting that Patterson is involved. I think he is really gonna make a difference this year.

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I never thought I would agree that Patterson is a bright spot, but he certainly helped Sarkesian. Our defense ought to be flawless in execution by mid season.

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No doubt Patterson "helped" but the biggest factor was Kwiatkowski and great talent.

I really think our team will be better however I think it's only going to be a 5-6 win ceiling and unfortunately if we win 5-6 games, I think we stick with Aranda one more year, he potentially goes 5-7 the next year and he gets fired and basically all program momentum is gone. Then we are back to being at the bottom of a new big 12 with a much tougher hill to climb to being elite again than before

MrGolfguy said:

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Why do you assume they are going to be worse than last season? You obviously give no value to any of the changes made....be it staff, players, or scheme.

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I don't think we'll be worse than last year, but in terms of conference play, everyone has been making changes to get better. I imagine the noobs are desperate as well and have made significant changes. So have we improved enough and more than our fellow conference mates. I think with our resources we have, just don't know what to expect. Though, I don't expect us to do much better, maybe 4-5 wins. Really hope I'm way off and we do much better.

5 wins.

Gary Patterson becomes HC.

Front-loaded schedule. If we can get to the break at 3-3 I'll be happy.

@Utah will be a beating most likely. Air Force is a tough out but is losing a massive amount of experience from a 9-win team, including pretty much the entire core of the team that thumped us in 2022. @Colorado is a total wild card - they went 2-4 at home last year, but they will be better next year. We'll most likely be road dogs there unless CU just falls off a cliff early, deservedly.

BYU will be a dogfight but is winnable at home, and we never seem to bow up @ISU so I'm chalking that one down as a likely L as well.

I think the most likely scenario is 2-4 through the first six, but wins over AF, Tarleton and either @Colorado or BYU are more than possible. And if we're 3-3 into the break, we get our toughest games down the stretch at home with OSU, Kansas and TCU.

In a *moderately optimistic* scenario, with wins over Tarleton, AF, BYU, @Tech, TCU, @Houston and KU, we're 7-5 and bouncing into 2025 with a lot of momentum to carry into the recruiting trail. I'm not willing to engage in more optimism than that yet.

We win at least 1, and the ceiling looks like 6 wins. If we win 6 Dave gets another year IMO. Anything less and he is gone I think, but they will wail until the end of the season to announce it. Recruiting is already suffering and losing your top HS commits is a bad sign.

monsterbear61 said:

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BluesBear said:

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PawpaBear said:

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Below is an overly optimistic 10-2 with the win and loss columns per game below…

this is dependent on Finn running for his life with an improved OL with 1 additional impact transfer player… 1 Edge transfer impact player… and 1 DL transfer that is a legit run stopper and over 320 lbs.

Win - Tarletan State
Loss - Utah
Win - Air Force
Loss - Colorado
Win - BYU
Win - Iowa State
Win - Texas Tech
Win - Oklahoma State
Win - TCU
Win - West Virginia
Win - Houston
Win - Kansas

Less sunshine pumping - I realistically believe we will go 6-6 this season until I see more.

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Sorry. 11-1. We aren't losing to Colorado. I'm going to that game and we will win a thriller in OT

We just snagged that Edge pass rusher and everyone is forgetting that Patterson is involved. I think he is really gonna make a difference this year.

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I never thought I would agree that Patterson is a bright spot, but he certainly helped Sarkesian. Our defense ought to be flawless in execution by mid season.

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If there is a way to turn a potential into a disaster, Behlur will and can find the way. Patterson, Saban, or Buddy Ryan can't make miracles happen.

parch said:

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Front-loaded schedule. If we can get to the break at 3-3 I'll be happy.

@Utah will be a beating most likely. Air Force is a tough out but is losing a massive amount of experience from a 9-win team, including pretty much the entire core of the team that thumped us in 2022. @Colorado is a total wild card - they went 2-4 at home last year, but they will be better next year. We'll most likely be road dogs there unless CU just falls off a cliff early, deservedly.

BYU will be a dogfight but is winnable at home, and we never seem to bow up @ISU so I'm chalking that one down as a likely L as well.

I think the most likely scenario is 2-4 through the first six, but wins over AF, Tarleton and either @Colorado or BYU are more than possible. And if we're 3-3 into the break, we get our toughest games down the stretch at home with OSU, Kansas and TCU.

In a *moderately optimistic* scenario, with wins over Tarleton, AF, BYU, @Tech, TCU, @Houston and KU, we're 7-5 and bouncing into 2025 with a lot of momentum to carry into the recruiting trail. I'm not willing to engage in more optimism than that yet.

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I think that's actually pretty reasonable. It's really hard to predict how this team will produce with so many changes. I could see us winning 3 on the bottom end and 8 at the top. Spav and Finn have me mildly hopeful. I also think there's a lot more talent on this team than we are inclined to believe because we've put such a pathetic product on the field. I'm going to hope for progress and positive results from all the changes until proven otherwise. If we don't get to bowl eligibility then CDA should be out.

7-5.

I'd be happy with 7 wins but more happy if we just hold Tarlton St to 10 points or less in game one. They score anymore than that then a long season lies ahead.

Historically speaking we have done better in seasons where we had low expectations save maybe 2014 where we had sky high expectations and did not disappoint.

We'll beat Tarleton State by 2 scores at least.
I think we can beat WVU.
We just need to see how the lines hold.
Spavital has gotten some hype but hype isn't linear with results. Show me.
Who is making sure Dave starts starters instead of nice boys?

Aberzombie1892 said:

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It's difficult to do a game by game analysis given how much movement is still happening in the portal - even today. That being said,Utah, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Kansas should be among the more difficult games based on what they have coming back.

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With Texas and Oklahoma out of the league, no one remaining is exceptionally talented. We just saw this in the draft.

There will be wild fluctuations in this league every year. I have my doubts that we'll be a team that makes a big jump in win-loss record, but it's not impossible.

bear2be2 said:

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Aberzombie1892 said:

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It's difficult to do a game by game analysis given how much movement is still happening in the portal - even today. That being said,Utah, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Kansas should be among the more difficult games based on what they have coming back.

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With Texas and Oklahoma out of the league, no one remaining is exceptionally talented. We just saw this in the draft.

There will be wild fluctuations in this league every year. I have my doubts that we'll be a team that makes a big jump in win-loss record, but it's not impossible.

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The bolded is certainly true, but teams can build up to a cycle of being pretty good and it looks like those teams plus possibly Kansas State may be in that cycle right now. None of the other opponents on the 24 Baylor schedule appear to be particularly strong at this moment in time.

Aberzombie1892 said:

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bear2be2 said:

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Aberzombie1892 said:

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It's difficult to do a game by game analysis given how much movement is still happening in the portal - even today. That being said,Utah, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Kansas should be among the more difficult games based on what they have coming back.

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With Texas and Oklahoma out of the league, no one remaining is exceptionally talented. We just saw this in the draft.

There will be wild fluctuations in this league every year. I have my doubts that we'll be a team that makes a big jump in win-loss record, but it's not impossible.

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The bolded is certainly true, but teams can build up to a cycle of being pretty good and it looks like those teams plus possibly Kansas State may be in that cycle right now. None of the other opponents on the 24 Baylor schedule appear to be particularly strong at this moment in time.

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Going forward, I would feel better and more confident with both BU AND the Big12 if we could have had a strong, successful year last year.along with a good bowl game. As it is, it feels like both are just a G5 level and not a good one.

ImABearToo said:

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I'd be happy with 7 wins but more happy if we just hold Tarlton St to 10 points or less in game one. They score anymore than that then a long season lies ahead.

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I am fine with 24 points as long as 14 points come when we are already up 63-10 in the 4th quarter and we have the drum major playing QB and they've pulled some Pi Phis from the line in to play DB.

IBleedGreenandGold said:

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We jumped from 2 to 12 wins before so I never rule out anything. Though at most I see 7 or 8 wins this year.

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As well as a jump from 1 to 7 wins! Anything is possible!

I'm concerned that the defense will be even worse this year than last if the offense starts piling up three and outs. 27 second offensive drives will kill your defense.

Bobsyouruncle said:

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I'm concerned that the defense will be even worse this year than last if the offense starts piling up three and outs. 27 second offensive drives will kill your defense.

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I like some of the portal guys we've added on that side of the ball.

Between the transfers and the year of experience our young guys gained, I think we'll be more talented defensively this year than we were last year. We'll see if that leads to more success on Saturdays, though.

Is CAD's contract 50% or 75% guaranteed? I bet he could have been let go after 2024 season if it was only 25% guaranteed.

Only was able to attend the Homecoming game last year. It was about the most uncompetitive game I've seen against a middling team I've seen since 2009.

Not going to hope for much until the team shows me something.

I'm shocked by some of the high forecasts in here despite the abysmal 1.5 seasons we just had.

You can say what you want about new staff and new players bringing some juice... But you can't downplay that it takes time to install new systems and get everyone in sync.

2 games is the floor and complete collapse of the Aranda era. 7 games is the ceiling where there's hope for next year.

We'll probably be a 4-5 win team after sneaking a few dubs in.

BUATX2000 said:

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when he was able to retain Scott Drew

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Mack had zero, zilch, nada, nothing to do with Drew staying, other than I think Drew gets along with him. Momma Drew and the kids had everything to do with CSD staying.

johnnychimpo said:

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Is CAD's contract

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Who is CAD? Coach Aranda Dave?

Chamberman said:

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johnnychimpo said:

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Is CAD's contract

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Who is CAD? Coach Aranda Dave?

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Coach Aranda. Dave Aranda. Shaken, but not stirred.

Daveisabovereproach said:

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I say this in every thread where expectations are talked about, but I don't see what it is about six wins that gets so many people fired up. Simply making it to a participation trophy bowl? Six wins should be the bare bare minimum for a program like ours considering what we have achieved and where we have been in the last 10 years

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I see it (bowl eligibility) as a minimum performance level considering where we've been. It would show we've potentially turned a corner. It also contributes some tangible benefits to reinforcing that momentum with bowl eligible teams allowed an additional 4-5 weeks of organized team practices and the payout that comes with bowl participation, win or lose. Ask any college coach if an extra month of practice and an extra $6 or 8 million (Cheez-It Bowl is 6/team, Alamo Bowl is 8/team) is beneficial in maintaining and building on momentum.

BUATX2000 said:

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Tarletan State
Utah
Air Force
Colorado
BYU
Iowas State
tech
Oklahoma State
TCU
West Virginia
Houston
Kansas

Bowl eligibility is out of the question, but there is a legit chance this team goes 1-11, which probably results in Dave getting fired sometime mid season. I'd be interested in hearing from the more optimistic fans on this page as to where they see greater than 2 wins on this schedule with this roster.

Bring on the sunshine…

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Anything less than 6 wins is a huge disappointment.

We should win:
T State
AF
Colorado or BYU
WVU
UH
Kansas