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Now to see what the Matt Rhule era at Baylor actually looks like

34,031 Views | 228 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by SATXBear
TheDom
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ColomboLQ said:

TheDom said:

ColomboLQ said:

TheDom said:

Boom! I knew S11 was lurking with the knowledge! No sir, ColomboLQ, you need to educate yourself on the facts. Take several seats please!
Settle down junior and take a seat. The adults are talking.
I figured you were done for the night bro after getting checked that hard. Guess you are a stubborn one.
You should ask my wife about that. You'd find that she would not disagree with you there.
HAHA. Sounds about like me buddy.
ColomboLQ
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forza orsi said:

ColomboLQ said:

forza orsi said:

ColomboLQ said:

forza orsi said:

ColomboLQ said:

forza orsi said:

ColomboLQ said:

forza orsi said:

ColomboLQ said:

forza orsi said:

ColomboLQ said:

forza orsi said:

cowboycwr said:

Lance_smith15 said:

"I stopped reading two sentences in when the author clearly has no clue what he was talking about."

Opinion. Also, are you seriously implying that Bill Connelly has no idea what he's talking about? Covering college football is his job, pretty sure he knows what he's talking about..

"7 win team to 1 win team.... that is all anyone needs to know."
Opinion

"First year coaches win ALL THE TIME."

This statement implies that Matt Rhule had a similar situation to another successful first year coach which is a laughable claim.

"And yet everyone wants to give Rhule a pass because he is a nice guy or something. All one has to do is watch his post game pressers to see he is lost and has no clue."

Who's giving Rhule a pass? 1-11 is unacceptable and should never happen again. Also, "he is lost and has no clue" opinion. I didn't think that NFL teams interviewed people that are lost and have no clue

"And of course if he wins 2 games this year he will be called the savior of Baylor Football."

Opinion. If Rhule wins 2 games next season I garauntee you that no one on this board will he applauding him.

Just stop..


I said nothing of the sort. You took it that way. I simply said he had no idea what he is talking about in this one article. He may cover college football but that does not mean he could possibly know and understand everything happening with all 128 teams. This article shows that.

7 wins to 1 win is an absolute fact. Stop trying to pretend it isn't.

First year coaches win all the time. Fact. The situation had little to do with it. You and all the others who want to support a guy who can't even beat LIBERTY want to use it as a crutch. But again it comes back to the 7 win team being lead by such a great coach that he can only beat one team.

7 wins to 1 win IS an absolute fact. You just like to pretend that the drop off was mainly due to coaching. The 7 win year was a pretty crappy year too when you look at it. We started with 6 straight wins, which were 3 nonconference cupcakes, Iowa State, Kansas, and somehow got it together for a win over Okie State. All of that was with Seth Russell at QB. It was then followed by 6 straight losses when we played decent teams, that including complete hammerings from TCU, OU, Tech, and KSU. Most of that without Seth. And we got it together for a bowl game victory over an uninspired Boise State. So pointing to the 7 wins the previous year as an indication of how much worse we were in 2017 is disingenuous, as we were pretty crappy in 2016 too.

From that mediocre at best 2016 team we lost our starting QB, starting RB, our 3 best receivers, 3 starting DBs and 2 contributors, starting LB, starting DT, and starting C to graduation or early to the NFL. Additionally, Sean Muir and Dom Desouza retired and Johnny Jefferson left school. Our 2016 recruiting class basically vanished, and Stidham had transferred, a couple of other guys got in trouble (Hammad, Autry, Faulk), so there was pretty much nothing to replace all the talent that left.

Pretending like Rhule walked into a situation where he had a winner just waiting to be led is ridiculous. We had a team that was lucky to be .500 in 2016 that lost all its best players and replaced them with some half-decent true freshmen. If you take what was left and look at the injuries they had, the 2017 team was set up to lose a bunch of games, regardless.
There are some serious apologetics going on with this one. Not to mention some serious revisionist history.
We weren't very good in 2016. I measure that by the fact that in the regular season we beat one team with a pulse and we got pounded by the majority of the decent teams we played. Going into the season the 2017 team was appreciably less talented than the 2016 team and far less experienced. The 2017 team had a lot of injuries, including many at the beginning of the season that exacerbated the talent issue. Please point out what is revisionist about that.
Uh, how about the fact that you left off the single biggest factor influencing the 2016 season, which was the scandal and Baylor leadership actively trying to derail the season (which they did). Your opinion is that we were "crappy" in 2016 and got "lucky" to win 7 games. My opinion is that we actually WERE a good team until the BOR started their weekly releases and articles that served as a huge distraction and undermined the team itself. There was nothing "lucky" about them winning 7 games in 2016.
To be clear, I'm not saying that we were lucky to win the games we won. I mean that we were lucky that our schedule started with 5 really bad teams in the first six games. We beat Northwestern State, SMU, Rice, Kansas (2-10), and Iowa State (3-9) (by 3 points) in that stretch. For a guy that is so skeptical now you were apparently pretty easily impressed in 2016.
Sorry, when I read "We had a team that was lucky to be .500 in 2016" that doesn't exactly tell me that we were lucky because of the way the schedule was set up as you now indicate was your intent. As to your last comment, given all the team had to endure that year (scandal, no head coach, BOR weekly releases, opposing fan bases calling them all rapists, injuries, etc), I do think it's amazing they won 7 games to be honest.
I've never said that the 2016 team didn't have obstacles. Regardless, I think that 2016 was not nearly as talented a team as the teams of the previous three years, even if it hadn't had those obstacles. The 2017 team was another step down in talent from 2016, it was less experienced, had well less than a full roster, and it had more key injuries. That's the short version of what my original comment said, and I don't think that any of those things are the "revisionist" statements that you allege them to be. My original comment was in response to cowboycwr whose response to the article was "7 win team to 1 win team.... that is all anyone needs to know." Even if you hate the BOR actions, if you're trying to evaluate Rhule objectively, it's not "all anyone needs to know."
Well when you fail to mention by far the biggest obstacle the team faced in 2016, it takes away your credibility for the rest of your post. The story of the 2016 team can't be told without the scandal and weekly BOR releases being involved.

As far as comparing the talent level of the 2016 team to the previous 3 years, I don't believe anyone would (or has) disagree with you on there. Now how much of a talent dip the 2017 team had from the 2016 team has been up for debate (not that there was one, just how much of one). The 2017 team returned 3 OL starters plus another player that was basically a starter during 2016. This is a fact. Considering how Vegas expected us to go to a bowl game and the vast majority of posters on here were expecting the same, I have my doubts just how much the talent had dipped in 2017. Were injuries and lack of depth a factor? Absolutely. The problem is that those things weren't factors until later in the year and can not explain away disasters like Liberty and UTSA.
You're being disingenous if you think team depth was not an issue at the start of the season. There were players, but not much experience. As for injuries not being a problem until later in the year, for the opening game the following were injured either before or during the game: Terence Williams, Grayland Arnold, Jamychal Hasty, Taion Sells, Jameson Houston, Davion Hall, Raleigh Texada, Jordan Tolbert, Tre'von Lewis, Henry Black, Rajah Preciado. That's a lot of guys out at the start, and it got worse just about every game. And you have concerns about my credibility?
So if I'm understanding you correctly, we did not have enough talent and depth at the beginning of the season to beat Liberty and UTSA? That's really what you want to argue? If you really think that is the case, then the the answer to your last question is absolutely.
You said depth and injuries were not an issue until later in the season. I said we were not deep at the beginning and that we had a lot of guys injured even before the season started. Please point out where I said that we didn't have enough talent to beat Liberty. Do you have a problem with reading comprehension or do you just like to pretend that you do so that you can act like a d***?
No reading comprehension problems here; I just don't think you like your posts looked at closely and scrutinized. Let me ask you this point blank then. Did we have the talent and depth to beat Liberty and UTSA to start the year, yes or no? I say yes and that is why I said we didn't have talent and depth issues until later in the year.
I have no problem at all with my posts being looked at closely and scrutinized. I do have a problem with you adding your own take to them and trying to say that I'm saying something that I'm not. I was responding to a post and my post was perfectly appropriate and accurate in that context. You decided to pretend that I was saying something else and start a new argument about another topic.

But, ok, I'll continue down this silly discussion a little further. Yes, I think we had the depth and talent to beat Liberty and UTSA, and for whatever reason we didn't get it done on those two days. You and cowboy seem to think that we didn't do it because we hired an incompetent coach. I think that it's not so simple and that other factors were a big part of it, including the talent drop-off, depth, injuries, a new system, players playing new positions, confidence, a new coach, the attitudes of some old players, fan engagement, ongoing off the field stuff, etc. So whether or not we had the talent to beat those two teams, we didn't on those two days. For you and cowboy that's enough. For you guys it's fine to evaluate a coaching staff based on the first two games of their tenure here - that's all you need to know. You act like we were a really good team that just needed a good leader, and it's just not true. We'll see if Rhule works out, but the team clearly got much better and put a scare in a couple of teams that no one thought we'd be competitive with.

You guys simplify everything to "we went from 7 wins to 1, and that's all you need to know." If you believe that, either you don't know much about football or you're agenda-driven. Either way, it's all I need to know about you. It's a complex set of issues that the team had to overcome, despite you wanting to ignore or belittle them all. The team was beaten up and had serious depth issues even at the beginning of the season, although you pretend like they weren't. The team got a lot better, even though you choose to pretend that they didn't. And you can't evaluate a coaching staff fairly based on the first two games after taking over a program in the shape that ours was in, although I gather fairness isn't a thing for you.
I see that you accuse me of doing something and then you go ahead and do the exact same thing to me. I've never said our coaches are incompetent. But I have said that we did have incompetent coaching moments throughout the year last year. Whether that incompetence just occurs in year 1 and is an aberration or continues into the future will be determined shortly. No one will ever convince me that this team had the talent to only win 1 game. I will say that we should have easily won 3 or 4 games last year. The fact that we only won 1 game is a direct reflection on the coaching (specifically losing the first 2 games). I've said repeatedly that the team improved from the beginning to the end of the year last year. I'm not sure how many times I need to repeat that before the reading of it takes hold.
DAC
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TheDom said:

DAC said:

TheDom said:

DAC said:

TheDom said:

We might have had the talent to beat Liberty


You should put that quote in your signature so any newcomers will know you're the village idiot
Again, tell me their QB & WR were not the best players in that game. S11 says it was majority of blown coverages that made them look like D1 players so I will take his word. He puts in way more hours on film study than me.

Lmao What do you think that means? Heck yeah they were the best players. Why do you think that is?? And you think someone needs to study film to determine if Baylor or Libery had the most talent?? Dang I've heard it all.
You're going to take position we were some great talented team in 2017 smart guy? Some team that underachieved based on talent?

I Don't think a team needed to be great to beat liberty. I never claimed to be a smart guy
ColomboLQ
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TheDom said:

Thank you sir. Logical and great perspective. That's all we can do with these guys.

I mean Colombo says in one post "I never said defense didn't improve" although he said exactly that 3 different ways. And then he comes back and uses total yards given up in TCU game as evidence of not improving defense. So when S11 checks the thread and head explodes from all of his nonsense and goes to town checking Colombo with film study type post, his response there he said he agreed total yards isn't good measuring stick.

They just move the goal posts. Deflect and twist. Cowboy & DAC are just clowns with their generic hot takes to sound funny. Colombo little more special bc he thinks he is actually smart by citing some stats here and there that eventually get checked and he has to crawfish and then he reverts to deflection and twisting conversation.
Honestly I don't use advanced stats in a lot of my posts on here cause it's a waste of my time to do so with the majority of posters on here. I used total yards because that seems to be the basic stat most people can understand. And if you are defending Rhule, you SHOULD want to use total yards as a measuring stick. That stat favors teams that want to control the line of scrimmage and control the clock. Those are the teams that try to slow the pace of play down and should make defenses look better than they may actually be. The fact that this was such a bad statistic for Baylor given the coaching philosophy of this staff. I'm also not entirely sure what you are talking about moving goal posts. My position has been that the defense was God awful to start the year and was still pretty bad at the end of the year. I don't see where or how that has changed.
ColomboLQ
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forza orsi said:

Forest Bueller said:

forza orsi said:

Forest Bueller said:

Good grief, you dog out Cowboy and Columbo and don't realize you are the other side of the same coin.

They see 1-11 and nothing but gloom, you see 1-11 and are trying to make elaborate excuses.

It's somewhere in the middle guys.

Not all gloom, but there were some losses that should have never happened, under an circumstance.

As I mentioned earlier, I expect 6-6 this year. Rhule is a motivator there is no doubt about that. Within 5 years I expect a 10 win season.

It's not all gloom at all, but then there were some serious lapses, both from players and coaching last year, that caused inexplicable losses.

Deal with it.
You are completely misreading what I said.
Sorry if I am, but when I see you say "Yes, I think we had the depth and talent to beat Liberty and UTSA, and for whatever reason we didn't get it done on those two days." It doesn't seem like it.

Baylor didn't show up on other days as well, those two day, were not particularly unusual.

First OU came in thinking they could walk on the field and BU would faint. They were way over confident. BU made them pay with a tough never give up effort to the end. WVU forgot the game is 4 quarters, a huge error on their part that had them almost lose a game that should have been a blowout.

OSU was a terrible game, UT was a terrible game, Tech was a bad game as BU should have been able to post a win against a very mediocre opponent.

It wasn't just a situation where they had a couple of days they didn't get it done. They didn't get it done on 11 days. The beat down of KU showed a huge talent gap with them. BU had the talent to take 5 wins last year.

Next year is a new leaf and it can and I believe will happen, last year though was a serious underachievement.

Saying that we had the talent to beat Liberty and UTSA and but we didn't get it done is the opposite of gloom and doom? All I have said is I think Rhule might work out, that last year had a lot of different issues going on, that I don't think that last year's record alone indicates that Rhule won't win here, and that it was unfair to judge his ability purely based on the won/loss record. If you think that "let's wait and see" means I'm a hopeless Pollyana, so be it.
I actually agree with all the bold parts, believe it or not.
ColomboLQ
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TheDom said:

Forest Bueller said:


Quote:

We might have had the talent to beat Liberty............



If you had any credibility, which you didn't,

it was lost with the first statement here.

I sure hope your boys don't defend that, if so they lose all credibility too.



Tell me Liberty didn't have 2 best players in that game. Saying we should have beat Tech on talent wise is credibility issues partner.
They did, but they did not have the 2 most talented players in the game. Scheme, coverage, poor secondary play and not talent let those 2 guys dominate.
ColomboLQ
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PacificBear said:

Not to hijack, but..........................

Would anyone be happy with Rhule after the following year end results:

Year 1: 1-11
Year 2: 3-9
Year 3: 4-8
Year 4: 5-7
Year 5: 6-7

Or based on his own prediction of 6 wins next year:

Year 1: 1-11
Year 2: 6-7
Year 3: 7-6
Year 4: 8-5
Year 5: 9-4

Do we keep him based on the two scenarios? Either scenario?


Not happy with scenario 1 and I don't see him being kept in that scenario either.

Scenario 2 I think is passable, not sure I'd use happy though. I do think he is kept in that scenario pretty easily. BUT I will say this. If we do win 6 games in year 2 (this coming season), I honestly think there's a good chance we win 9-10 games in year 3. I think the win curve comes by much much faster than incrementally the way it is set up above. The reason I believe that is this. We have a decently young team next year that will (hopefully) have an uptick in wins and shows steady enough improvement to win 6 games next season. The majority of these same players would be back for year 3 and we would have at that point, a team with talent AND experience and potentially moving in the right direction because at that point, I'd be certain the coaching staff would have them in the right place and position to win big (again, if we win something like 6 games next season. Any more than that and I guarantee we win 10+ in year 3). Potentially our lineup in Year 3 would look something like this (players in bold would be projected returning starters):

QB: Charlie Brewer (Jr)
RB: JaMycal Hasty (Sr)
LT: Jake Fruhmorgen (Sr)
LG: Xavier Newman (Jr)
C: Sam Tecklenburg (Sr)
RG: Ryan Miller (Jr) - not sure if this is who it will be but I'll slide him in here for now
RT: Johncarlo Valentin (Sr)
WR: Denzel Mims (Sr)
IR: Tony Nicholson (Sr)
WR: RJ Snead (Jr)
TE: Tyler Henderson (So)

DE: James Lockhart (Sr)
DT: Bravvion Roy (Sr)
NT: James Lynch (Jr)
DE: Deonte Williams (Jr)
WLB: Jordan Williams (Sr)
MLB: Clay Johnstone (Sr)
SLB: Jalen Pitre (Jr)
CB: Harrison Hand (Jr)
SS: Blake Lynch (Sr)
FS: Chris Miller (Sr)
CB: Grayland Arnold (Sr)

K: Connor Martin (Sr)
P: Connor Martin (Sr) - would not be a returning starter though has started many games at P

That's potentially 16 returning starters and a lot of experience from a 6 win team. And we also have last years schedule which means we would get OU, WVU, and UT all at home, KU is one of our road games and all 3 of our non conference games should be absolute gimmes (I believe its home to SFA, home to UTSA and at Rice). I'd be stunned if they won less than 9 in year 3 provided they win 6 in year 2.
ColomboLQ
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TheDom said:

DAC said:

TheDom said:

DAC said:

TheDom said:

We might have had the talent to beat Liberty


You should put that quote in your signature so any newcomers will know you're the village idiot
Again, tell me their QB & WR were not the best players in that game. S11 says it was majority of blown coverages that made them look like D1 players so I will take his word. He puts in way more hours on film study than me.

Lmao What do you think that means? Heck yeah they were the best players. Why do you think that is?? And you think someone needs to study film to determine if Baylor or Libery had the most talent?? Dang I've heard it all.
You're going to take position we were some great talented team in 2017 smart guy? Some team that underachieved based on talent?
We were not some great talented team in 2017. We still underachieved based on talent.
ColomboLQ
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NoBSU said:

ColomboLQ said:

TheDom said:

ColomboLQ said:

TheDom said:

Boom! I knew S11 was lurking with the knowledge! No sir, ColomboLQ, you need to educate yourself on the facts. Take several seats please!
Settle down junior and take a seat. The adults are talking.
I figured you were done for the night bro after getting checked that hard. Guess you are a stubborn one.
You should ask my wife about that. You'd find that she would not disagree with you there.
Why would I ask your wife if you were done for the night?
Come again?
Stranger
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jbbear said:

Stranger said:

TheDom said:

Stranger said:

TheDom said:

We might have had the talent to beat Liberty & UTSA. Perhaps although debatable at that point between injury's, deflections, suspensions, true freshman. Factor in the intangibles of remaining players with sour attitudes, new systems, and zero chemistry, so we lost. Both games winnable late but didn't.

If you think any conference game including KU should be considered underachieving based on talent level you are nuts. Tech was not winnable game based on us having more talent than them. We didn't have more talent than anyone last year. Certainly not developed talent. Go back and watch Liberty game, they had 2 best players on field between their QB and WR.

The telling factor was coaching staff took the dumpster fire that was last year - when 20 of 70 suited players (30%) of roster for game 8 of the season are walk-ons - and they played hard each week despite record and demonstrated improvement in nearly every area of football. Additionally, the roster was purged of players with bad attitudes and didn't fit system. The foundation was laid in 2017. Now we can build again.



You make some great points. But it's almost like you are compelled to counter every post.

No one pumps more sunshine on the football board than your ownself. Are you being paid to sell the dialogue? Are you little Matty, his ownself? Maybe Mrs. little Matty? Are you one of several Doms, or just TheDom? Keep up the good work.

You are to the football board what cinque is to the religion and politics board.

Just speaking the truth for all the haters on the board like you. It's actually not that much sunshine and roses. It's really just objective. Rhule has a lot to prove and tons of work to do. I personally do think he man for the job but we could be wrong and it not. However, when it just non stop irrational nonsense it doesn't make the board fun. If ya'll came with some actual good stuff and not just nonsense like I'm Rhule is disguise I wouldn't have to post so much.


No hating going on here, The. You'll figure out sooner or later I'm just having fun with you. This here is the toy department and I haven't taken anything serious at Baylor athletics since 1956.

I did take it serious when Buddy and Tommye Lou and them knocked down a perfectly good alumni building just cause they wanted to. Baylor people will never forgive them for that and neither will I. That was just meanness and nobody likes that.

I wish little Matty well but I've seen his kind before at Baylor so I'll believe in him when he proves himself. In the meantime he better develop a thick skin cause this a tough crowd.
So you don't like meanness, but you're ok with blatant disrespect for our coach by calling him little Matty. Got it.


I heard he kinda likes that nickname
I'm a Bearbacker
NoBSU
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ColomboLQ said:

NoBSU said:

ColomboLQ said:

TheDom said:

ColomboLQ said:

TheDom said:

Boom! I knew S11 was lurking with the knowledge! No sir, ColomboLQ, you need to educate yourself on the facts. Take several seats please!
Settle down junior and take a seat. The adults are talking.
I figured you were done for the night bro after getting checked that hard. Guess you are a stubborn one.
You should ask my wife about that. You'd find that she would not disagree with you there.
Why would I ask your wife if you were done for the night?
Come again?
Oh you meant the bolded part and not the first part.
ColomboLQ
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NoBSU said:

ColomboLQ said:

NoBSU said:

ColomboLQ said:

TheDom said:

ColomboLQ said:

TheDom said:

Boom! I knew S11 was lurking with the knowledge! No sir, ColomboLQ, you need to educate yourself on the facts. Take several seats please!
Settle down junior and take a seat. The adults are talking.
I figured you were done for the night bro after getting checked that hard. Guess you are a stubborn one.
You should ask my wife about that. You'd find that she would not disagree with you there.
Why would I ask your wife if you were done for the night?
Come again?
Oh you meant the bolded part and not the first part.
Hilarious.
S11
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Staff
Quote:

I'm not arguing that points per play or yards per play should be what is used to rate offenses, because I haven't looked enough into it to form an opinion. I'm using these stats to rate defenses.

1- It's either good for both or not. The calculus of did they move it or score really doesn't change much. It's either giving a good picture answering those questions or it isn't. The offense/defense split makes little sense.

Quote:

I don't think it's a coincidence that the top 3 defenses in allowing pts per play and yards per play are the same top 3 defenses ranked by S&P and were widely considered the top 3 defenses in CFB this past year (Alabama, Clemson and Wisconsin).
2- So a system based on per play efficiencies falls in line with per play stats? Not exactly shocking...
Yards per drive and yards per game has Michigan mixed in with those three.

3- However that once again biases against style of play. Virginia Tech had outstanding YPD defense ranking 11th and were very good all year. However they tend to be aggressive and gave up median or worse numbers of 20+ yard plays as they roll the dice a lot. 27th in yards per play defense which isn't indicative of how good they were. They were also 11th in tackles for loss.

Quote:

I would agree with your example on the 13 plays if that's all the offense got in a game, but most teams run 65+ plays per game which gives you way more data points. All those data points per game and consequently over the course of the season will help balance out the extreme outliers in terms of plays like the one from your example above.

My example was an extreme one to prove a point. Since you seem to be ignoring that long plays have bigger per-occurrence impact and more frequency... lets add actual numbers here.

4- Typical plays go for handfuls of yards which means a long play is giving a big impact to any average. Typical drives go for 33 yards. Outliers have a much bigger impact on per play as even a 99 yard drive would have only about a 5.5 YPD impact over a 33 YPD average figure over the course of a typical game with 12 drives but drives that long are rare. Touchdown drives are only 27% of estimated possessions. Taking a long drive of 75 yards would only be 3.5 per drive above average usually.

Let's apply that same math to YPP. A typical offense has 70 plays. One additional 65 yard gain can take a single game yards per play statistic and take it from a median yards per play figure to a number on par with a top 19 season ypp figure when it's impact is divided out over 70 plays. Add in that a team who had a median number of 20+ plays like Nebraska had roughly 5 of them per game and it's easy to see how the stats skew and skew and skew based on how many big plays are hit and especially if they go 30+, 40+, etc...


Quote:

Those skewed plays are not likely to be a big factor when you consider the sheer number of plays that will used in the statistics.

5- My example showed it IS a big factor. For instance 3-4 long plays really skewed YPP in BU vs TCU 2017. Yards per play was 6.24 which is on par with what the 29th best offense in the country in YPP averaged for a season. Baylor had some good plays but was nowhere near as good that day as the stat would suggest. Yards per drive had them at 26.2 which was much closer to reality where Baylor had 15 drives with 2 field goals and two long TD's to show for it while giving up tons of sacks.

Quote:

By contrast, teams might only get 6 or 7 drives per game and to me, that is a much easier to manipulate that statistic because there are much fewer points of data than there are on a per play basis.

6- You quite literally are off by double. Typical games are 12 drives. So your argument just lost half it's strength as there's double the sample size to dilute any outliers.

7- Outliers need less diluting with per-possession stats. A team driving 60 yards for a TD is still only 81% more than what a median drive would be. Even a mundane ten yard gain is 78% higher than median play yardage. (5.61) Considering a median team will have roughly 13 plays of 10+ a game... that stat is gonna skew and do so quickly with any marginal variation from that.

A team getting a modest 20 yard gain? 257% more than median. 30 yards? 435% of median YPP. If they hit just a couple bigger plays the stat gets really slanted.

Play by play stats are far more variable and skew easily and the play counts aren't enough to balance it out.

Quote:

A team can be trying to run clock at the end of games or kneeling in victory formations and that will skew numbers on a per drive basis much much more than they would on a per play basis.

8- I omit obvious kneeldown drives from the stats. They bias nothing as a result of that. As far as running clock, they are still trying to move the ball if only to make first downs and bleed clock.

Quote:

I agree with your last point. Fewer busts, particularly by having improved safety play, should make the defense much better. Just how good that is remains to be seen.
I think this unit has the potential to surprise people but they have to get the mental screwups under control. Stuff rate was 25th nationally which is encouraging if they can get the mental part down.
TheDom
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ColomboLQ said:

TheDom said:

DAC said:

TheDom said:

DAC said:

TheDom said:

We might have had the talent to beat Liberty


You should put that quote in your signature so any newcomers will know you're the village idiot
Again, tell me their QB & WR were not the best players in that game. S11 says it was majority of blown coverages that made them look like D1 players so I will take his word. He puts in way more hours on film study than me.

Lmao What do you think that means? Heck yeah they were the best players. Why do you think that is?? And you think someone needs to study film to determine if Baylor or Libery had the most talent?? Dang I've heard it all.
You're going to take position we were some great talented team in 2017 smart guy? Some team that underachieved based on talent?
We were not some great talented team in 2017. We still underachieved based on talent.
Then we can agree to disagree bc I think that expectation is nuts. When you are a P5 school and 70 kids suit up for a game with 20 players or 30% of roster being walk-ons (direct lack of talent) and another 20ish are true freshman (undeveloped talent and experience) you are not prepared to win multiple games. And we didn't. The fact we even competed in most of the games is unbelievable and testament to staff. Lack of talent (injuries, youth, lack of development) probably #1 reason in my book we were so bad last year. Should be better this year with all three of those "talent" categories improving.
TheDom
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DAC said:

TheDom said:

DAC said:

TheDom said:

DAC said:

TheDom said:

We might have had the talent to beat Liberty


You should put that quote in your signature so any newcomers will know you're the village idiot
Again, tell me their QB & WR were not the best players in that game. S11 says it was majority of blown coverages that made them look like D1 players so I will take his word. He puts in way more hours on film study than me.

Lmao What do you think that means? Heck yeah they were the best players. Why do you think that is?? And you think someone needs to study film to determine if Baylor or Libery had the most talent?? Dang I've heard it all.
You're going to take position we were some great talented team in 2017 smart guy? Some team that underachieved based on talent?

I Don't think a team needed to be great to beat liberty. I never claimed to be a smart guy
Great lawyer answer
TheDom
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For the record, S11 stands on very strong footing in his YPD analysis. I disputed with him at beginning on it too but then looked deeper into it myself and it actually the best stat one can calculate to give accurate view of how team moves ball or prevented moving the ball. I can't find anything better. It brings in all variables and displays in balanced view. The example of 2014 BU vs TCU is great one to demonstrate logic. Lots of possessions, plays, yards, sacks, scores, etc.
S11
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Staff
S11 said:

Quote:

I'm not arguing that points per play or yards per play should be what is used to rate offenses, because I haven't looked enough into it to form an opinion. I'm using these stats to rate defenses.

1- It's either good for both or not. The calculus of did they move it or score really doesn't change much. It's either giving a good picture answering those questions or it isn't. The offense/defense split makes little sense.

Quote:

I don't think it's a coincidence that the top 3 defenses in allowing pts per play and yards per play are the same top 3 defenses ranked by S&P and were widely considered the top 3 defenses in CFB this past year (Alabama, Clemson and Wisconsin).
2- So a system based on per play efficiencies falls in line with per play stats? Not exactly shocking...
Yards per drive and yards per game has Michigan mixed in with those three.

3- However that once again biases against style of play. Virginia Tech had outstanding YPD defense ranking 11th and were very good all year. However they tend to be aggressive and gave up median or worse numbers of 20+ yard plays as they roll the dice a lot. 27th in yards per play defense which isn't indicative of how good they were. They were also 11th in tackles for loss.

Quote:

I would agree with your example on the 13 plays if that's all the offense got in a game, but most teams run 65+ plays per game which gives you way more data points. All those data points per game and consequently over the course of the season will help balance out the extreme outliers in terms of plays like the one from your example above.

My example was an extreme one to prove a point. Since you seem to be ignoring that long plays have bigger per-occurrence impact and more frequency... lets add actual numbers here.

4- Typical plays go for handfuls of yards which means a long play is giving a big impact to any average. Typical drives go for 33 yards. Outliers have a much bigger impact on per play as even a 99 yard drive would have only about a 5.5 YPD impact over a 33 YPD average figure over the course of a typical game with 12 drives but drives that long are rare. Touchdown drives are only 27% of estimated possessions. Taking a long drive of 75 yards would only be 3.5 per drive above average usually.

Let's apply that same math to YPP. A typical offense has 70 plays. One additional 65 yard gain can take a single game yards per play statistic and take it from a median yards per play figure to a number on par with a top 19 season ypp figure when it's impact is divided out over 70 plays. Add in that a team who had a median number of 20+ plays like Nebraska had roughly 5 of them per game and it's easy to see how the stats skew and skew and skew based on how many big plays are hit and especially if they go 30+, 40+, etc...


Quote:

Those skewed plays are not likely to be a big factor when you consider the sheer number of plays that will used in the statistics.

5- My example showed it IS a big factor. For instance 3-4 long plays really skewed YPP in BU vs TCU 2017. Yards per play was 6.24 which is on par with what the 29th best offense in the country in YPP averaged for a season. Baylor had some good plays but was nowhere near as good that day as the stat would suggest. Yards per drive had them at 26.2 which was much closer to reality where Baylor had 15 drives with 2 field goals and two long TD's to show for it while giving up tons of sacks.

Quote:

By contrast, teams might only get 6 or 7 drives per game and to me, that is a much easier to manipulate that statistic because there are much fewer points of data than there are on a per play basis.

6- You quite literally are off by double. Typical games are 12 drives. So your argument just lost half it's strength as there's double the sample size to dilute any outliers.

7- Outliers need less diluting with per-possession stats. A team driving 60 yards for a TD is still only 81% more than what a median drive would be. Even a mundane ten yard gain is 78% higher than median play yardage. (5.61) Considering a median team will have roughly 13 plays of 10+ a game... that stat is gonna skew and do so quickly with any marginal variation from that.

A team getting a modest 20 yard gain? 257% more than median. 30 yards? 435% of median YPP. If they hit just a couple bigger plays the stat gets really slanted.

Play by play stats are far more variable and skew easily and the play counts aren't enough to balance it out.

Quote:

A team can be trying to run clock at the end of games or kneeling in victory formations and that will skew numbers on a per drive basis much much more than they would on a per play basis.

8- I omit obvious kneeldown drives from the stats. They bias nothing as a result of that. As far as running clock, they are still trying to move the ball if only to make first downs and bleed clock.

Quote:

I agree with your last point. Fewer busts, particularly by having improved safety play, should make the defense much better. Just how good that is remains to be seen.
I think this unit has the potential to surprise people but they have to get the mental screwups under control. Stuff rate was 25th nationally which is encouraging if they can get the mental part down.


Recently came across full stats for 2017 drives and plays. This sheds some additional light on the stats subject for those who have interest.


Median yards:

Per Play- 3
Per Drive- 25

Average Yards
Per Play- 5.68
Per Drive- 32.5

Standard Deviation -
Per Play- 9.75
Per Drive- 29.19

So per play has a standard deviation 325% of it's median value and per drive has one that is only 116% of it's median. Drives vary far less.

Nearly 2/3 of all plays were more than the median's own value away from the median number. The impact of one 16 yard play is a full deviation from average and five times a median value.

The variability here isn't even close. The middle 50% of plays average 3.23 yards. Clearly the outliers are dramatically increasing the average per play by 89% of the median. The same figure for drives is only 29%.

The deviation in play statistics is larger than the per play average. The deviation in Drive statistics is smaller than the average.
oldbear69
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Doc Holliday said:

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/6/5/17410532/baylor-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster

Year Zero

a season in which the head coach is new and cannot immediately craft a lineup suited to winning games; it will end up regarded as a season with an artificially low win total and one that should not be used to negatively evaluate the coach

By the end of Baylor's 2017, head coach Matt Rhule was giving regular snaps to about 11 guys he had signed as freshmen the previous February. Another 14 contributors or so had contributed few to no statistics the year before, as well.

I talk about Year Zero situations at least a few times per year in my offseason preview series, and with good reason each year, there are a few clear situations that fit the bill. (UConn, for instance.) Sometimes a coach takes over a team with little hope of winning games, no matter what. Sometimes there's such a dramatic shift in style that he requires quite a bit of depth chart rearranging, plus time to sign his own guys.

It happens. But it's rarely this stark.

If you watched a Baylor game last year, it was like watching a team of replacement players during an NFL strike. You became that fan from Major League, asking "Who are these ******* guys?"

  • Freshman Charlie Brewer ended up throwing the most passes.
  • Freshman running back John Lovett had the most carries.
  • Sophomores Denzel Mims and Tony Nicholson, who had combined for four career receptions heading into 2017, caught the most passes.
  • Of 60 offensive line starts, 35 went to guys who had never started a game before 2017.
  • Rush end Brian Nance (7.5 tackles in 2015, missed 2016 with grade issues) led defensive linemen in tackles.
  • Freshman Jalen Pitre started at strongside linebacker. Sophomores Eric Ogor (3.5 career tackles) and Henry Black (zero) saw quite a few snaps as well.
  • Freshman Harrison Hand led the secondary in tackles, and Verkedric Vaughns (14 tackles in 2016), Jameson Houston (14), Chris Miller (five), Rajah Preciado (4.5), Blake Lynch (zero), Jairon McVea (zero), Timarcus Davis (freshman), and Taion Sells (missed 2016) all saw rotation time.
This was a controlled burn of a depth chart if ever one existed.

We know why, of course. Rhule inherited a program that was dealing with a massive sexual assault problem and coming off of a season with an interim coach. Plenty of guys had already left, and plenty more were about to.

Rhule had about a month to put together a recruiting class from scratch in the winter of 2016-17, and he managed a top-40 class. His first full-year recruiting effort produced a top-30 class. This was impressive.
Now come the potential fruits of a year and a half of extreme labor. After winning just one game in 2017, Rhule's Bears could be favored in five of their first six this fall. They return most of their passing, rushing, and receiving yards, 82 career offensive line starts, all but one primary defensive lineman, all but two linebackers, and all but two defensive backs.

S&P+ likes Baylor to go about 6-6 this year, though this isn't a situation in which S&P+ is built to have an accurate read your program's five-year history is taken into account, and Rhule made it clear last year that there was little from before 2017 that he was interested in advancing.

Offense



The good news: for a freshman, Brewer was strangely awesome on third-and-long. He was 19-for-25 for 216 yards, three TDs, and two interceptions on third-and-7 or longer (passer rating: 172.2), which is about as good as you'll see outside of elite QBs.

The bad news: Baylor's run game was so awful that there were too many third-and-longs.

Brewer took over for injured sophomore Zach Smith (who had himself taken over for graduate transfer Anu Solomon) in late-October. He threw two fourth-quarter touchdown passes in a mad comeback against WVU that saw the Bears turn a 38-13 deficit into a 38-36 last-second defeat. He torched Kansas in the team's only win, and he finished with a 68 percent completion rate and 146.3 passer rating. That's damn strong.



Smith transferred to Tulsa to play for former Art Briles assistant Philip Montgomery, so Brewer who hails from Lake Travis, Tex., just like Baker Mayfield and countless other successful college football QBs heads into his sophomore season as the main man; he'll be backed up by four-star freshman Gerry Bohannon and NC State grad transfer Jalan McClendon, a big dude (6'5, 221) with 262 career passing yards and 223 career rushing yards.

Brewer will also have a familiar supporting cast around him. Freshmen and sophomores consisted of seven of Baylor's top eight receiving targets last year, and now they're sophomores and juniors.

That includes both all-or-nothing threats in juniors Denzel Mims and Chris Platt (combined: 19.3 yards per catch with a paltry 39 percent success rate) and potentially decent possession men in juniors Pooh Stricklin and Tony Nicholson and sophomore Gavin Holmes. Platt injured his knee pretty early in the year, but Holmes both emerged as exciting options with Brewer behind center. (So did RB-turned-DB Blake Lynch, but it appears he'll remain a DB this year.)

Baylor's receiving corps should be just fine without a contribution from a newcomer or youngster, but there's extra intrigue from the addition of Tennessee transfer Jalen Hurd. The 6'4, 229-pounder was an inefficient but physical running back for the Vols, and after a year off, he's lining up at receiver. He's a good athlete for his size, but perhaps most importantly, he faces no immediate pressure to succeed. With Baylor's experience, any Hurd production is a bonus.

Offensive co-coordinators Jeff Nixon and Glenn Thomas attempted relative balance on standard downs (56 percent run rate, four percentage points below the national average) before handing the ball to their QB on passing downs (75 percent pass rate, 10 percentage points higher than average). The Bears still spread the field, but operated at a pretty normal tempo. With a potentially awesome passing game, they could pick up the pace.

Really, the only reason to doubt the passing game is the run game. Baylor fell to 126th in rushing success rate, 127th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), and dead last in FBS in power success rate.

Freshman John Lovett did nice things in the open field but rarely got there, and returnees JaMycal Hasty and Terence Williams did next to nothing while battling injuries.

Williams transferred to Houston, so some combination of Lovett, Hasty, sophomore Trestan Ebner, redshirt freshmen Dru Dixon and Abram Smith, and true freshman Craig Williams will need to bring more life. Ebner was easily the most efficient runner of the bunch, but he had more receiving targets (26) than rushes (25); Lovett had nice explosiveness and no consistency. The most likely load carrier, assuming good health, will be Hasty.

The line boasts more experience than it did. Two-year starters Blake Blackmar and Pat Lawrence return, along with four others who started at least one game. Plus, Rhule added Clemson transfer Jake Fruhmorgen (eight career starts), UCF's Christian Beard, and big JUCO transfer Johncarlo Valentin. He redshirted five freshmen last year, as well. So the depth chart is full. That doesn't guarantee success, but the bar for improvement is pretty low.



The staff Rhule put together to run his offense was a mish-mash of guys who hadn't worked together much Thomas was a former Rhule assistant at Temple, Nixon had mostly NFL coaching experience over the last decade, tight ends coach Joey McGuire was an experience Texas high school head man, etc.

On defense, though, Rhule brought one of the best-regarded assistants in the country. Snow's been coaching for 40 years and joined up with Rhule at Temple. After a Year Zero of his own there, he crafted one of the most consistently awesome defenses in the country the Owls ranked between 11th and 24th in Def. S&P+ each year from 2014-16.

He had one hell of a task last fall. His defense was young and constantly banged up; only two of the top six linebackers and three of the top 14 defensive backs played in all 12 games. Oh yeah, and there's no immediate answer for "How do you coach good defense in the Big 12?"

Baylor was aggressive when it had the chance, ranking 25th in stuff rate, 53rd in power success rate, and 55th in Adj. Sack Rate. But the Bears were 111th in Def. S&P+, getting torched without enough disruptive plays to make up for it.

In theory, last year's growing pains are this year's experience. Baylor returns six linemen, five linebackers, and seven defensive backs who made at least 12.5 tackles last year; they also add Texas A&M transfer James Lockhart at end and Temple transfer Derrek Thomas at cornerback and return rush end Xavier Jones, who missed eight games last year.

Snow's second BU defense will have drastically more depth and experience, and in players like cornerback Grayland Arnold, nose tackle Ira Lewis, and middle linebacker Clay Johnston (plus perhaps Blake Lynch, now that he's a full-time defender), he has some play-makers.

Still, what can Snow actually do against Big 12 defenses? What can anyone do? Snow likes getting as aggressive as possible Temple ranked 12th in havoc rate (tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles divided by total plays) and second in defensive line havoc in 2016 but only one Big 12 team succeeded at that last year: TCU, which managed to rank eighth in success rate while getting torched a few times per game (2.7 gains per game of 30-plus yards, 104th in the country).

Just about everybody else was forced to adopt a bend-don't-break approach. Will Snow have the pieces he needs to play like he wants?

Special Teams

Baylor had a youth movement on special teams as well, but this one worked out alright. The Bears ranked 46th in Special Teams S&P+ despite a sophomore punter/kicker (Connor Martin), a freshman kickoffs guy (Jay Sedwick), and a sophomore punt returner (Tony Nicholson).

Granted, kickoffs were a bit of a disaster (and kick returns were forgettable), but Nicholson was solid, and Martin was excellent in the place-kicking department. He was only decent at punting, but that's fine senior Drew Galitz (45.2-yard average) was outstanding in this regard before suffering a knee injury. They're all back.



S&P+ might be overestimating Baylor's odds of a rebound, but it's not hard to see how one might come to fruition. Brewer gets a whole year behind center with a wonderfully experienced receiving corps, the run game improves because of good health and experience, and a better-tested defense makes more big plays of its own while suffering fewer breakdowns.

The Bears were dreadfully inconsistent but showed enough moments an eight-point loss to Oklahoma, a two-point loss to WVU, a sufficiently impressive win over Kansas to hint at a high ceiling. And now last year's youth movement is this year's veteran influx.

A fast start is key. Within the first half of the season, Baylor will play its five most winnable games home games against Abilene Christian, Duke, Kansas, and Kansas State and a road game against UTSA before the Big 12's depth begins to take over. A 4-2 or 5-1 start could lead to bowl eligibility, but anything less would make it tricky.
[url=https://www.sbnation.com/authors/bill-connelly][/url]
by: Bill Connelly

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/6/5/17410532/baylor-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster

Htown387
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cowboycwr said:

Htown387 said:

cowboycwr said:

I stopped reading two sentences in when the author clearly has no clue what he was talking about.

7 win team to 1 win team.... that is all anyone needs to know.

First year coaches win ALL THE TIME.

And yet everyone wants to give Rhule a pass because he is a nice guy or something. All one has to do is watch his post game pressers to see he is lost and has no clue.

And of course if he wins 2 games this year he will be called the savior of Baylor Football.

I can wait for guys/trolls like you to fall on your sword at the end of the season. No way we win anything less than 5 games next season.

It was a clear roster burn last year, nobody was younger in the country.
LOL.

and when we don't win 5 games I will be sure to bring this back up.

And if we do win 5 games who cares??? That is STILL a losing season. I don't celebrate losing. So yeah I will not be falling on my sword at the end of the season unless by some miracle he goes undefeated.

Yes we used a lot of freshmen... because the coach benched players like a 1,000 yard rusher to play the freshmen... and the results were... losses. Lots of them. And now transfers.


*Clears throat*
SATXBear
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Htown387 said:

cowboycwr said:

Htown387 said:

cowboycwr said:

I stopped reading two sentences in when the author clearly has no clue what he was talking about.

7 win team to 1 win team.... that is all anyone needs to know.

First year coaches win ALL THE TIME.

And yet everyone wants to give Rhule a pass because he is a nice guy or something. All one has to do is watch his post game pressers to see he is lost and has no clue.

And of course if he wins 2 games this year he will be called the savior of Baylor Football.

I can wait for guys/trolls like you to fall on your sword at the end of the season. No way we win anything less than 5 games next season.

It was a clear roster burn last year, nobody was younger in the country.
LOL.

and when we don't win 5 games I will be sure to bring this back up.

And if we do win 5 games who cares??? That is STILL a losing season. I don't celebrate losing. So yeah I will not be falling on my sword at the end of the season unless by some miracle he goes undefeated.

Yes we used a lot of freshmen... because the coach benched players like a 1,000 yard rusher to play the freshmen... and the results were... losses. Lots of them. And now transfers.


*Clears throat*


I have called Cowboy our before. Cowboy does not understand football at all. Consistently has bad takes.
 
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